Philadelphia Phillies Second Half Preview

The halfway point of the Major League Baseball season is long gone.

The Home Run Derby has passed us by, and the All-Star Game soon followed.

After what was the dullest, most boring day of the entire year in the world of sports, we welcome back baseball on Thursday.

The Philadelphia Phillies, who have been a very solid second half team in the recent years, went into the break 10 games over .500 with a four-game lead over the Florida Marlins in the National League East.

The Atlanta Braves sit six games back, while the New York Mets remain 6.5 games out of first (now that’s fun to say).

Will the Phillies begin to run away with the division in the coming months? Or will their lead dwindle down to give the rest of the teams in the division a chance to catch up?

Technically, the only way to find out is to way and see. But we don’t have the time and patience just to “wait and see”. That’s why I’m here, to preview the Phillies’ second half of the 2009 season.

Enjoy.

 

Current Position

The Phillies currently are 48-38 (.558) with a four-game lead in the NL East. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games.

 

Projected Finish

With the tough schedule ahead for the Phillies, it will be a rough July. But beyond this month, and especially when September rolls around, the team will see many more easier opponents.

Although I am not particularly a fan of giving an exact number when it comes to win projections, I’m going with 93 victories (which means 69 losses), only because it’s one more win than was earned last season.

First place in the division should be easier to accomplish and clinched earlier this season. While I’m not saying the race is over just yet, I do see the Phillies ending up winning it by 5-7 games (remember, they won it by three last year).

 

Key Players

In the first half, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and others carried the Phillies to the position they are in now. In the second half, even more players need to step up, especially pitchers.

With the injuries that have damaged the pitching staff, the club is lucky to be at where they are now. Nine starting pitchers have already been sent to the mound, compared to the seven used the entire season in 2008.

Pedro Martinez won’t do much, if anything, to make the Phillies a much better team. Acquiring him is equivalent to picking up another Jamie Moyer. Both will give you five or six innings, and hopefully, each will keep you in the game.

But who exactly needs to bring their game face for the last 86 games of the season?

On the offensive side of the ball, Jimmy Rollins is the obvious choice. His struggles are beginning to look like a thing of the past, but a return to his horrible slump would deeply harm the Phillies’ playoff and World Series hopes.

Among others, Ryan Howard will need to playing a bit more of all-around baseball than he has been thus far. We’ve come to learn that a high average is no longer a part of Howard’s game, but reaching base more frequently and hitting the ball more consistently needs to be worked on.

In the rotation, the ace, Cole Hamels, desperately needs to pitch with more consistency. We all know he has the repertoire to shut batters down every start, and he has shown it through his entire career, just not this season (or half of it, I should say).

With the current condition of the rotation, Hamels’ return to the ace he was in October last season will a huge plus.

In the bullpen, Brad Lidge absolutely needs to get back into a groove. Whether he will be able to return to 2008 form remains to be seen, but if he finds a way to lower his ERA to 5.00 and blow only three saves the rest of the season, I’ll be fine.

 

Key Storyline To Watch

Every day we hear more and more assurance that Roy Halladay will be dealt to the Phillies in return for quite the hefty price.

Many fans have made it known that whatever the price is, they want the former Cy Young.

Personally, I’d rather not give up the four top prospects in the Phillies’ farm system, along with J.A. Happ, in order to receive Halladay in return.

I understand that people believe prospects are over-hyped, and that Halladay is a proven player. Honestly, both of those statements are correct.

But let’s say we move back to around 2002, and the Phillies are on the hunt for a superstar pitcher.

The opposing team wants three top prospects and a major league player.

What young players do the Phillies give up? Let’s say Cole Hamels, Carlos Ruiz, and Ryan Howard.

Hamels was a highly touted prospect, but Ruiz’s and Howard’s hype can be compared to that of Kyle Drabek and Mike Taylor and Dominic Brown.

To say that these prospects are over-hyped may end up making you look like a genius, but could also turn out completely wrong and make you look like a moron.

Howard Eskin pointed out that only one-fifth of minor league players ever pan out. Well, you know what, these guys are a part of that fifth.

Steve Phillips shared that keeping prospects can get GM’s fired. Well, sir, you are an expert in the subject of getting the boot, so maybe we should take your word, especially since you traded away Jason Bay, and attempted to do the same to Jose Reyes.

Listen, these prospects the Phillies have are the Cole Hamels’ of the world, the Ryan Howard’s of the world, and Carlos Ruiz’s of the world. These guys are players who will make an impact for years to come.

Giving up three prospects may mean losing three future key players.

While the one player in return will certainly contribute that season, and possibly a few beyond that, the future beyond that is left unknown.

If the Phillies trade for Halladay, their chances of winning this year are greatly increased. But their chances of winning five to 10 years from now aren’t.

I would rather see a lower-level starter with a much lower price (i.e. the Joe Blanton trade last season) sent to the Phillies than Roy Halladay.

The Phillies have been built on keeping their prospects, trusting in their players, and trading/signing the role players who are so essential to a team’s success.

Why abandon that train of thought now?

 

Key Series To Watch

July 16-19 @ Florida Marlins

July 20-22 vs. Chicago Cubs

July 24-26 vs. St. Louis Cardinals

July 30-Aug. 2 @ San Francisco Giants

Aug. 7-9 vs. Florida Marlins

Aug. 21-24 @ New York Mets

Sept. 1-3 vs. San Francisco Giants

Sept. 11-13 (double-header on 13th) vs. New York Mets

Sept. 24-27 @ Milwaukee Brewers

Oct. 2-4 vs. Florida Marlins

 

Playoff Prediction…

Nah, I’m not that foolish.

 

Thanks for reading. I hope you learned at least the slightest bit of information from reading this.

The Phillies Have to Trade For Roy Halladay? Not So Fast, My Friend

Pedro Martinez in Red Pinstripes: What’s Not To Like?

When news broke last week that the Phillies were talking with Pedro Martinez about a possible comeback tour, my knee—jerk reaction was to pin the tail on Amaro.

This guy is a diva, a primadonna, an ex—Met and hardly a team player. But it is hard to argue with the fact that he will go down in baseball lore as one of the most dominant pitchers of this generation. 

Did it get any better than watching Roger Clemens battle Martinez? Those two shared a ferocity that few starting pitchers are able to maintain. They attacked hitters like closers, and they did it for seven to nine innings per start. 

Of course, the images of Martinez as a Red Stocking and Expo have faded, leaving many people with images of Martinez the Met. As we all know, that Pedro was a far cry from the three—time Cy Young Award winner that the Mets hoped for when they signed him in 2004. 

And that brings us to today…Pedro the Phillie. 

All fans would agree that the deal is fair and the risk is low; as reported, a deal worth $1 million is one—fifth of the amount that Martinez was asking for at the onset of 2008.  With incentives, the contract would net him $2.5 million. It’s a reasonable deal. 

The issue that has divided the fan base thus far is the belief that this guy, a guy that no other team was willing to touch, might not be able to help the Phillies at all. Fans bearing this mindset generally believe that the Phillies would be better off with a minor leaguer, rather than an ex—Met with a history of having an attitude. 

Well, let’s dismiss the notion that Martinez is a Met. Pedro only pitched three years with the Mets…he’ll retire a Red Sock, that’s for sure. He departed New York on bad terms with the team. The same club that signed him to his lucrative contract weren’t exactly  eager to give him a second chance to burn them. Pedro must be licking his chops at the opportunity to spoil the Mets’ hopes of getting to the post—season. 

As for the replacing Martinez with an available minor leaguer, I’m taking Martinez. 

So far this year, the Phillies have trotted out two minor leaguers for spot starts, and although both performed well in short stints, both pitchers (Bastardo and Lopez) also ended up on the disabled list. 

The fact of the matter is that Charlie Manuel would have been left trotting out his third minor league option—had they not signed Martinez—and at some point, the level of talent and readiness drops off. You have to wonder whether anything they have on the farm is ready for a big league call—up at this point. 

Throw out last year and Pedro has been consistent throughout his entire career. Even in 2006 (when his record was 9-8), he made the All—Star team and sported a healthy K/9 and WHIP of 9.3 and 1.108, respectively. 

In comparison, those numbers are better than every other starter on the current Phillies roster in 2009. We all know about the accolades (most notable, three-time Cy Young, five—time MLB ERA leader and a LOCK for Cooperstown), but most of us don’t know about his background.   

Pedro was born to play baseball; his father and older brother were both well known Dominican pitchers. His father, Paolino, played with Felipe and Matty Alou, and was said to be a strong pitcher, often pitching two games in one day. He was armed with a “murderous” major league sinker and a passion for the game.

The Alous have said that Paolino would have made a solid major leaguer, but missed his opportunity, skipping a tryout for the San Francisco Giants because he could not afford cleats.  http://www.jockbio.com/HTML/memorabilia.html

Pedro’s brother, Ramon, was an Olympian and was signed by the LA Dodgers.

I think that his family makeup is important because it shows a longstanding tradition of baseball. Pride is always an issue for guys like Pedro Martinez.

The other notable point is that Pedro certainly loves the spotlight and he loves to prove himself to new teammates. 

In his first year with NY, he was 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA. In his first year with Boston, he was 19-7 with a 2.89 ERA. In his first year with Montreal he was 11-5 with a 3.42 ERA and with the Dodgers, in his first full season as a major leaguer, he was 10-5 with a 2.61 ERA. 

Furthermore, he has pitched very well in the WBC. It’s not rocket science; he digs the spotlight, and he knows that he’ll get paid if he helps the Phillies win a World Championship.

There are doubts about whether Pedro can stay healthy and fool hitters with reduced velocity. For the small investment, it’s worth the chance to see if he can be anything like the Pedro Martinez of old. 

My $0.02.

The Return of Pedro Martinez, Philadelphia’s Newest Toy

The Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed the acquisition of super pitcher and three-time Cy Young award winner Pedro Martinez Wednesday.

The move sends a big message to the division and gives a huge shot in the arm to the Phillies.

Martinez sports a lifetime 2.91 ERA and a very impressive 214-99 record. His travels have included the Dodgers, Expos, Red Sox, and Mets.

With the Mets last year, Martinez played well beneath his caliber, achieving a less than impressive 5-6 record alongside a dismal  5.61 ERA; his health and father’s death were the main reasons for last year’s performance says Martinez.

So what exactly does this mean for Philadelphia?

Well right now—nothing.

Martinez will be put on the 15 day DL with a mild shoulder sprain, and it is unclear just exactly when he will join the club under the spotlight.

“We are trying to assess where he is,” says general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

In time however, the Phillies will inevitably enjoy Martinez’s more than capable arm, and it could come at just the right time.

If Martinez does go on the DL, that means his rehab probably won’t start until somewhere around August.

He will ultimately have to spend some additional time in the minors before coming back up which could push his first start to mid August.

By the time he gets his swagger going, if at all, it will be just in time for the playoffs.

A potentially healthy and potentially hot Martinez, in the postseason, is about as intimidating as Jason Werth’s mug shot on the Philly homepage.

But there is a twist to all of this.

Signing Pedro DOES NOT mean talks with Roy Halladay are dead. The Phillies don’t have any problem affording Halladay, rather, they are concerned with who the Jays want in return.

So let’s think about this for a moment shall we?

We all know that the Phillies’ pitching situation has been hurting for a while now. They have had times of greatness and other times of subpar play.

They have had to deal with some key injuries to Condrey and Bastardo and even Hamels twice already this year.

But if you look at what could be, this team can very quickly become an even more dangerous team than they already are.

In a perfect world for the Phillies, their starting rotation could look a little something like this:

Cole Hamels

Roy Halladay

Pedro Martinez

Joe Blanton

J.A.Haap

Let’s also assume that Moyer gets relegated to the bullpen in a set up role which could equally bolster the pen with Lidge and Romero leading the way, and there is the ever present rumor of bringing Myers up to a reliever spot to help integrate him back into play from his recent hip surgery.

Some players have already commented on their hopes of the front office making a bold move in signing Halladay as well—how mighty the pen can be.

All in all, the Phillies continue to improve upon an already very good team, and as their play continues to get better, a couple of right moves will put this team as a heavy favorite to be the first team to repeat a World Series since the 2000 Yankees.

Philadelphia Phillies First Half Report Card: Outfielders

Today marks the last day off for the all star break and the past couple days we have handed out midterm grades to the Phillies infielders and their pitchers.

Today, on the final day of the break for the Phillies, we finish up by assessing the outfielders. Things have been pretty stable in the outfield as the Phillies sent their entire starting outfield to St. Louis for the all star game. The backups are not bad either.

Raul Ibanez, Left Field
.309 AVG, 80 H, 22 HR, 60 RBI

When Pat Burrell left the Phillies the fan support was so overwhelming for the long-time Phillie that the addition of Raul Ibanez was initially met with mediocre response. Some fans wanted the Phillies to make a push for Manny Ramirez if they were not going to bring back Burrell.

Ibanez has done his part, though, to win over the fans in a way no other Philadelphia free agent athlete has ever done before.

Ibanez has played like an MVP through the first half of the season and despite missing twenty games due to injury, he still finds himself among the team leaders in a number of categories. Now that he is back the question remains as to whether or not he will have as much of an impact on offense.

His defense and base running has been somewhat of a surprise to most fans as well, making most everyone forget about Burrell. If he continues to play this well the Phillies can put themselves back at the top of the National League by the end of the regular season.

Ibanez was voted to be a starter in his first career all-star game.

First half grade: A+

Shane Victorino, Center Field
.309 AVG, 108 H, 6 HR, 42 RBI

Shane Victorino has been more of a spark plug at the top of the batting lineup this season as Jimmy Rollins had gone through some struggles. Because Rollins’s production had been down for a long time one can only imagine where Victorino’s RBI total would be with an effective Rollins.

Victorino not only gets the job done on the base paths (15 stolen bases, caught stealing five times) but he also continues to excel in the field. Coming off of his first Gold Glove award in 2008, Victorino is making a case for a repeat in 2009. His .995 fielding percentage is among the leaders in the league.

Victorino also was selected to his first all-star game by winning the Final Vote.

First half grade: A

Jayson Werth, Right Field
.263 AVG, 81 H, 20 HR, 56 RBI

Jayson Werth has quietly had a nice season, worthy of making his first all star game as well. Werth is just four home runs shy of his career high and is on pace for a career high in total hits. He is also just eleven runs batted in shy of another career high.

Werth is also showing more patience at the plate it seems as he is five walks shy of his career high. When he gets on base he can be dangerous as he has 12 stolen bases, including one successful steal of home against the Dodgers.

Werth’s defense has been solid as well. He has been charged with a pair of errors but has been a part of one double play and has picked up seven outfield assists. Opposing base runners know they can not sleep on Werth as he also has shown the ability to throw a runner out at first base in the right situations.

First half grade: A

John Mayberry Jr., Left Field
.184 AVG, 9 H, 4 HR, 8 RBI

The young John Mayberry Jr. had a wonderful debut in New York against the Yankees, but since then he has been quiet. Mayberry has struck out 19 times, picking up some at bats with the absence of Ibanez.

Mayberry may in fact not be major league ready at this time but the Phillies are lacking right handed options on offense. The Phillies have had little choice but to keep Mayberry up in Philadelphia rather than playing every day at triple A Lehigh Valley.

You do not want to be too hard on the rookie as his playing time is scarce, but unless he can get some more hits (and not necessarily home runs), Mayberry has been poor.

First half grade: D

Matt Stairs, Right Field
.283 AVG, 17 H, 4 HR, 13 RBI

Matt Stairs has taken over the role of best pinch hitter from Greg Dobbs. The folk hero provides the Phillies with a true professional hitter in a pinch hit situation and he is not afraid to swing and take pitches. It is rare to find a player who can be both patient and swing happy.

Stairs has picked up four home runs this season and has been used mostly as a pinch hitter late in games when the Phillies need a big hit. Stairs delivers clutch hits but he also provides clutch walks that extend rallies.

For his role on this team, Stairs has done a fine job.

First half grade: A-

The outfielders have probably been the most consistent area of the team. The infield may be the core of this Phillies team but the outfield to this point has been the better unit. Three players from the outfield went to the all star game and two of them started, although Victorino was a fill in for an injured player in the starting lineup.

The defense is as good as it has been in years in all three parts of the outfield and the offense may be the best out of an outfield unit the Phillies have seen in years.

So what are your thoughts on the Phillies outfielders? Are these grades too high or too low (doubt that)? What do you expect to see in the second half of the season?

Philadelphia Phillies All-Star Game Recap

It was supposed to be a homecoming he would never forget. He may never forget it, but it will now be for some of the wrong reasons.

Ryan Howard, the St. Louis native, struck out in his pinch hitting appearance in the eighth inning with the game’s tying and potential winning run in scoring position. Mighty Howard got fooled on a bad pitch and struck out.

The American League, which has not lost an all star game in 13 years (their last loss came in 1996 at Veterans Stadium), pulled out a tight 4-3 win over the National League.

The rest of the Phillies did not fare too much better, but this should have been no surprise for Phillies fans as the defending world champions have struggled against the American League all season unless they wear New York pinstripes.

Chase Utley went 0-for-2 but had some nice plays in the field. Raul Ibanez, making his first all star appearance in his long career, also went 0-for-2. Reserve player Jayson Werth struck out in his only at bat but made the second best catch of the night to end a threat from the American League.

Shane Victorino had the best night for the Phillies representatives, knocking a two-out hit in the bottom of the second inning and scoring on an error at third base on a base hit by St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. Victorino’s run tied the game at two and the National League went on to score one more run in the inning.

Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay got the start for the American League. Halladay, who is the hot topic in Phillies trade rumors right now, pitched two innings and allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits.

For Charlie Manuel, he became the first Phillies manager to lose an all star game.

Now it is time to get back to the games that really do count.

Philadelphia Phillies Sign Pedro Martinez

The Philadelphia Phillies are officially reporting that they have agreed to terms with free agent pitcher Pedro Martinez. He signed a one-year contract worth $1 million, including $1.5 million in incentives.

The Phillies are expected to have a press conference sometime today, with the New York Daily News saying that a 12 PM press conference is likely. Stay tuned for confirmation.

The signing of Martinez brings an end to a media frenzy and speculation, but it’s hardly the final piece of the puzzle. Martinez will need a couple of starts in the minor leagues before jumping into the mix in the starting rotation, so expect to hear some details about that today.

The right-handed pitcher may not be the same guy who has won a Cy Young, but he does bring a winning attitude.

Martinez owns a career record of 214-99 with a 2.91 ERA. He went just 5-6 last year with a high ERA, but he says that the passing of his father bothered him and now is ready and focused to pitch. He also says he feels he is in the best shape he has been in over the last few years.

Let the Martinez Experiment begin.

Here’s a Thought: Explaining Levels Of Pitching Statistics

The pitcher pictured in this article, J.A. Happ, is 6-0 with a 2.91 ERA.

Great, right?

Wrong.

If you know about BABIP, strand rate, FIP, and where I’m about to go with this, you don’t need to read this. If you don’t know about them, please, let me inform you.

When I wrote this article, showing that Matt Cain hasn’t progressed in his career, and is simply a No. 3 starter, I seemed to create a divide. Some people understood what I was saying (and agreed), and some people didn’t (and disagreed).

And that’s fine. I write columns here because I know a lot about the game of baseball and how to evaluate talent, and I like to use my extensive knowledge base to educate everyone.

If that last paragraph comes off as arrogant, I’m sorry: I just have put a lot of time and effort into baseball analysis, and I like to think it pays off. I freely admit when I’m wrong, and I am by no means clairvoyant when it comes to baseball.

Anyway, back to the point. I was talking about Cain’s low BABIP, high strand rate, and good-but-not-great FIP to back up my argument.

If you don’t know what that means, allow me to explain. Just listen to what it means, understand it, and then do what you want with that information. If you don’t think FIP is a good stat, fine, but at least you know exactly what it means.

So, here we go. This is what I (and stats people) believe about pitching.

Most of you who don’t know much about stats look at win-loss record and ERA.

Win-loss record is a bad stat. Obviously, a pitcher who allows one run in a game where his team scored zero runs did a better job than a pitcher who allowed seven runs in a game where his team scored eight.

Now, you may be thinking “Well, those games don’t happen often.”

But they add up, and pitchers who deserve to be 13-10 quickly become 10-13. Pitchers who should be 15-8 become 10-11. It happens. Continuing with the Matt Cain theme, he was certainly better than 15-30 over 2007-2008. He also isn’t 10-2 this year. He’s really maybe a 15-11 or so quality pitcher each of those years.

Now, several years back, many people realized this, and paid more attention to ERA.

Now, ERA is a better stat than wins, because it removes some luck from pitching.

Removing luck from pitching is so important. You have to isolate what the pitcher is doing, not what the offense behind them or the defense behind them is doing. Wins still have that big component of how much run support a pitcher gets.

ERA removes that run support component, but it leaves much more luck than many of you might think.

Consider this rather extreme example:

Pitcher A throws ten straight pitches that are swung at, hit, and roll softly between the pitcher, catcher, and third baseman on the infield. All ten batters are safe, and the batting team has a huge inning.

Pitcher B throws ten straight pitches that are crushed deep to center, but die on the warning track and are outs. He throws 3 1/3 perfect innings.

Which pitcher did a better job?

Obviously, the first one: he induced weak contact and kept the ball on the ground.

Which one has the better ERA?

The second one: he didn’t allow anyone to reach base.

Again, things that extreme don’t happen often, but consider this more plausible example.

Team A has a shortstop who can move five feet to each side in the time a line drive gets from a batter’s bat to the edge of the infield.

Team B has a shortstop who can move eight feet to each side in that time.

A pitcher on Team A gives up 15 liners between five and eight feet of the shortstop over a season. A pitcher on Team B does the same. Team A’s shortstop misses all of them and they go for hits. Team B’s catches all of them and they go for outs.

Did Team B’s pitcher do anything better than Team A’s? No. But his ERA (and WHIP) will certainly look better, because 15 fewer guys got on base during the course of a year.

Add in subtle variances in batted-ball placement, fielder positioning, and fielder quality, and you can get 20 or 30 hits becoming outs over the course of a year, or vice versa.

So there’s obviously some luck that goes into balls in play, from a pitcher’s perspective. A pitcher can’t control where the ball is hit, where his defenders are positioned, and how good his defenders are.

So we know that.

Now, let’s step away from batted balls for a second and look at what defense doesn’t play a role in.

Three things can happen in baseball that defense isn’t involved in: walks, strikeouts, and home runs. Because there’s no batted-ball luck involved, these three things are sometimes referred to as the “Three True Outcomes.”

They are also referred to as the “peripheral statistics” of a pitcher.

If you ever hear me say “…’s peripherals are:” I’m discussing the pitcher’s walk rate (how many batters he walks per nine innings), strikeout rate (how many strikeouts he gets per nine innings), and homer rate (how many homers he allows in nine innings).

For a pitcher, a walk rate of three to four BB per nine innings pitched is about average, a strikeout rate of six to seven per nine innings is about average, and a homer rate of one HR per nine innings is about average.

Going back to Matt Cain, he has a walk rate of 3.54 BB/9, a strikeout rate of 7.31 K/9, and a homer rate of .85 HR/9. That means he’s got average control and slightly above-average strikeout and homer ability. That’s not bad. That’s a good #3 starter. It’s not an ace, which is what I said before.

But without reigniting a war about that (and if you have something to say about Cain, at just add to the 54 comments (and counting) on that article rather than messing with the discussion on this one), let’s move on.

So we know what the pitcher controls. Let’s go back to what he doesn’t control.

If you read my articles, or those of other sabermetrics (advanced baseball stats) guys, you probably see the term BABIP used a lot.

BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play. It’s largely luck (I’ll clarify the “largely” in a bit). We know it’s largely luck because statistical studies have shown that a pitcher’s BABIP in one year has almost no correlation to his BABIP of the next year.

So, why is J.A. Happ’s 6-0 record and 2.91 ERA not a good indicator of his pitching ability?

Because he has a .242 BABIP.

Nobody (except Chris Young, Mariano Rivera, and maybe one or two others) can keep a BABIP in that range. Last year, J.A. Happ’s BABIP was .283. In 2007, it was .389.

BABIPs tend to centralize around the .300-.310 mark. If a pitcher is in that range, it’s fairly likely that their ERA will fall pretty close to their true level of performance. If it’s way below that, their ERA will likely overrate them, and if it’s way above that, their ERA will underrate them.

You also see the stat “FIP” thrown around a lot in my articles. What is FIP?

FIP (or Fielding Independent ERA) is essentially ERA without the BABIP luck issues. FIP looks at a pitcher’s peripheral numbers, assumes average luck on everything else, and then tells you what that pitcher’s ERA should be. J.A. Happ’s is 4.51. Matt Cain’s is 3.87.

So FIP is essentially just a better version of ERA.

Now, there’s plenty of stat guys who will tell you FIP is perfect.

It’s not.

Pitchers can control some things on balls in play. They can influence whether the ball is a ground ball, line drive, popup, or outfield fly.

What they can’t influence is what those do.

Batters hit in the .720 range on line drives. They hit about .260 on ground balls.

So if there was a pitcher who gave up only line drives, we would actually expect him to have a BABIP around .720.

A pitcher who only gives up ground balls would be expected to have a BABIP around .260.

For flies, the BABIP is in the .160-.170 range, and batters hit about .015 on popups.

Consider these two examples:

Pitcher A: 16.7% LD, 35.8% GB, 47.6% FB, 9.4% PO.

Pitcher B: 16.7% LD, 48% GB, 35.3% FB, 10.2% PO.

If we multiply out the expected BABIP figures, we get that Pitcher A’s BABIP should be about .293 and Pitcher B’s BABIP should be about .301.

Pitcher A is Happ, who has a .242 BABIP. Pitcher B is Jon Lester, who has a .348 BABIP.

It’s no surprise that Lester’s 3.22 FIP thus exceeds his 3.87 ERA.

Note that Happ, because he allows more flies, which have a lower BABIP than grounders, does have a slightly lower Expected BABIP (or xBABIP). But note that it’s  a .008 difference, not .106.

Almost entirely because of that balls-in-play luck, Happ’s ERA is .94 better than Lester’s, even though Lester’s FIP is 1.29 runs lower.

I brought up Chris Young and Mariano Rivera as low BABIP-ers earlier. Why? Young allows a ton of flyballs in huge Petco Park, and Rivera’s cutter induces a ton of popups.

If you don’t feel like multiplying a bunch of numbers out to find xBABIP, just use (LD percentage + .12). Because BABIP on liners is so much higher than BABIP on anything else, limiting line drives is key to getting good results on balls in play.

In scouting terms, this is the old “pitch to contact, away from the barrel of the bat.”

So don’t assume that just because a pitcher’s BABIP is .340, it’s going to come down. Check the line-drive rate, and if it’s up in the 21-plus percent range, the BABIP is legit. It’s been shown that LD percentage + .12 is a good “quick and easy” formula to assess BABIP.

That’s really it as far as balls in play stats.

Glad it’s over?

We’re not done yet. There’s a few other things I’d like to call attention to.

You may be wondering why groundball pitchers are held in high esteem by stat guys if flies have a much lower BABIP.

It’s simple: flies can go out of the yard.

However, the percentage of fly balls that leave the yard is another statistic, like BABIP, that’s been shown to be largely random. Homer-to-flyball ratio (or HR/FB) typically sits in the 7-13 percent range. If a pitcher has a HR/FB of 2 percent, he’s lucky. If he has a HR/FB of 20 percent, he’s unlucky.

You’re probably thinking “But I thought you said pitchers could control homers!”

Well, they usually can, because flyball percentage can stay fairly consistent, and homers correlate to that. 

“But, isn’t FIP flawed then?”

Yes, yes it is.

Hence xFIP (or Expected FIP). This takes a pitcher’s flyball rate, assigns average HR/FB luck, and generates an expected home run rate. It then uses the expected home run rate to go with walks and strikeouts to produce FIP.

J.A. Happ has a 9.4 percent HR/FB rate, just slightly below average. His FIP is 4.51. His xFIP is 4.77.

The extra .26 is a correction in HR/FB luck.

There’s one other stat, like BABIP and HR/FB, that has no predictive value and is thus luck. I promise I’m done after this one.

It’s strand rate, or percentage of runners stranded. The average is about 72 percent. It’s true that better pitchers may have slightly higher strand rates and worse ones might have slightly lower ones, but if a pitcher’s strand rate isn’t between 69 percent and 75 percent, they are getting lucky (if it’s higher) or unlucky (if it’s lower).

J.A. Happ’s strand rate is 85.9 percent.

With a BABIP of .242 and a strand rate of 85.9 percent, it’s obvious why Happ has succeeded.

While Happ isn’t a bad pitcher, his peripherals are 6.31 K/9, 3.31 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9. All three are about average, which lead to an average 4.51 FIP. 

J.A. Happ’s 2.91 ERA stems from an average pitching performance coupled with exceptional luck on balls in play and with stranding runners. His 6-0 won-loss record, on top of that, stems from good run support from an excellent Phillies offense. 

The stats tell us that Happ and Cain are overrated, and Lester is underrated.

So there you have it. That’s what “us stats guys” look at when evaluating a pitcher. I hope that those of you who didn’t know about this stuff have learned something, and that I presented this information in a clear, understandable fashion.

Applaud the Philadelphia Phillies for Adding Pedro Martinez

Maybe my memories of Pedro Martinez are inaccurate. Sure, he looked unimpressive going 5-6 last year for the New York Mets, while also collecting a 5.61 ERA.

But who else remembers how dominant Pedro’s stuff was during his tenure in Boston? As an Orioles fan, I certainly know what the three-time Cy Young winner was capable of.

The 37-year-old did not look like himself for much of last year but rumors are that the old Pedro is back. He pitched in the World Baseball Classic and looked like he was recovered from whatever was going on in the Big Apple.

According to an ESPN report, Pedro’s fastball was clocked at 93 mph during his three innings of a simulated game against a Phils’ summer league club.

The Cubs and Rays both took fliers on Martinez this spring before deciding to pass. Martinez is hoping he can prove the critics wrong and help the Phils repeat this fall. Remember, in Pedro’s heyday his fastball topped out in the low 90s so if he is back to form, count on him adding a few victories to current total of 219 wins.

Martinez will make a few minor league starts and then help stabilize one of baseball’s worst pitching rotations in Philly. The defending champs have already used nine starters through 82 games and rank 25th in the majors with a 4.61 ERA.

Even if Martinez is only a glimmer of what he used to be, he will help the Phils.

Last year in New York, I don’t think he routinely threw in the 90s and a 219-game winner that still has the same velocity and is well-rested, as well as intent on resurrecting his career, is a much better fix for the Phils than whatever they have in the minors. Even if Pedro doesn’t work out, the Phils tried.

They could still make a move at the deadline and Pedro won’t be the front of the line guy that turns around a rotation that is missing No. 2 starter Brett Myers.

Myers’ replacement (his name is not important) only lasted five starts before landing himself on the D.L.

The Phils are thin and could use a move right now, and Pedro could be a steady end-of-the-rotation pitcher. At the very least, Pedro will keep the Phils in the wide-open NL East.

Besides, don’t the Phils still have 46-year-old Jamie Moyer throwing every five days and resting in a nursing home for the other four?

The 37-year-old that supposedly rediscovered his stuff during the WBC is much more viable option than Moyer, who is currently 8-6 with a 5.99 ERA, or any other prospects the Phils have in the minors.

Pedro is back baby!

I’m penciling him in for (at least) eight wins (I think 10 is possible) and playing himself into a contract for next season. Pedro still won’t reach 300 wins, but he will add to his current total before enshrinement in Cooperstown.

The Six Degrees of Charlie Manuel

By now you know a bunch of stuff about the All-Star game. You know the winner, what league has home-field advantage for the World Series, and the MVP.

 

But in this article, we’re hoping to present you with the stuff you didn’t know about the All-Stars that made the game possible.

 

After reading for months about draft picks, prospects, trades, players, and the life of Charlie Manuel, it occurred to me that Charlie has been everywhere. He was even a star in Japan and that’s a feat—Barbie couldn’t even make it there.

 

That brings us to the reason for this article. You’ve all probably heard of the oracle of “The Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.” Supposedly any actor in the world can be connected to Kevin in six steps or less.

 

Well, this is the “Six Degrees of Charlie Manuel.” And although Kevin Bacon was one of the top picks for actors who now look like lesbians, I guarantee you Charlie is nowhere close to holding that honor.

 

This project is the cumulative effort of Bleacher Report contributors Christian Karcole, Bob Warja, Richard Marsh, and me. The idea is my brain-child, but I can take just a slight bit of credit for it because I have only one child and a very small brain. Most of the information I credit to the guys listed above.

 

You might think it’s a wussy year to do an All-Star game association between the NL manager, Charlie Manuel, and the players because the lineup is laden with Phillies, but I guarantee you, Charlie is closer to his players than you think—not quite as close as I’d like to be—but in any case, let’s get started.

 

The information on this first bunch of All-Stars was compiled by Christian Karcole. He’s the B/R co-community leader for the Phillies, B/R columnist, and you may not know this–high school student. My hat’s off to him.

 

After finishing up a year of school, he sat down to do incredible research for this project and I just can’t thank him enough. I think you’ll see why.

 

 

Christian Karcole’s Roll Call

 

Chase Utley

 

Second Baseman, Philadelphia Phillies

In 1969, a young Charlie Manuel made his major league debut. His father had committed suicide in 1963 before his signing with the Minnesota Twins, so Manuel was determined to get somewhere in life. Although his career never panned out much, Charlie was able to stay in the majors for six seasons before leaving for Japan.

Chase Cameron Utley was born in 1978 in Pasadena, California. In April of 2003, Utley made his major league debut. Since then, Utley has played in five full major league seasons, this current one being the sixth.

 

Charlie Manuel also played six seasons in the majors. While Utley will be playing for many more years to come, at this moment, they’ve both played six.

When Charlie Manuel got to Japan, he became an instant star. Utley also played in Japan as a star, just under a little different circumstance. In 2006, Utley was selected among baseball’s best and traveled to Japan with a team of All-Stars to compete against Japanese players.

In 1975, Manuel played on the Los Angeles Dodgers with a man by the name of Ron Cey. Cey went on to play for the Chicago Cubs, and in 1986, was a teammate of current Phillies pitcher Jamie Moyer. Of course, Moyer and Utley are now teammates, and Manuel is managing them both.

Here’s another tid-bit: Utley bats left and throws right, and Manuel does the same.

 

 

Hanley Ramirez

 

Shortstop, Florida Marlins

Hanley Ramirez’s former teammate, Arthur Rhodes, is the engine that gets this one going. Although Rhodes has not played for a single team for more than one season since 2003, he was a mainstay in the Baltimore Orioles’ rotation and bullpen for quite a few years.

 

During those years, a catcher by the name of Rick Dempsey played alongside him. An amazing 23 years before, Dempsey had made his major league debut. The year, I’m alluding to is 1969, which was Charlie Manuel’s first year in the bigs. Coincidentally, both played for the Minnesota Twins that season.

After their playing days ended, both Dempsey and Manuel became coaches. In 2005, Dempsey was the third base coach for the Baltimore Orioles, a former team of his. The man he was replacing was Sam Perlozzo, who had been promoted to interim manager.

 

In this past offseason, that same Sam Perlozzo was selected by Manuel to be his third base coach.

Going back to Perlozzo’s playing days, you’ll find that he was a member of the 1977 Minnesota Twins, Manuel’s former ball club. Even more odd is the fact that Manuel played with a pitcher by the name of Geoff Zahn in his final season, 1975, and Zahn went on to play for the Twins in 1977 with Perlozzo.

You think that’s all? Sam Perlozzo wasn’t a major league hit, just as Manuel wasn’t, so what did he do? He followed Manuel’s example and left for Japan. For his lone season in Japan, Perlozzo played for the Yakult Swallows in 1981. In 1980, Charlie Manuel’s last year of any type of professional baseball, he was a member of the Yakult Swallows.

Now that’s interesting.

 

Josh Johnson

 

Pitcher, Florida Marlins

Arthur Rhodes shows up again here, and for obvious reasons. Josh Johnson was on the 2008 Florida Marlins, which means that he was also teammates with Rhodes, just as Hanley Ramirez was. What does this mean? It means that the connection between Johnson and Charlie Manuel is the same as it was for Ramirez.

Yet, looking past that, there are a few more ways to connect Manuel and Johnson.

First of all, Johnson broke into the majors against the Phillies in 2005, Manuel’s first year as the Phillies’ skipper. Also, Johnson was born in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Manuel’s first team, as I’ve stated, was the Twins, who call Minnesota their home. Finally, we are left with one last bond between the two: they both bat left-handed and throw right-handed.

It’s not much, but it’s something.

 

Dan Haren

 

Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks

Dan Haren is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. In 2008, Haren played with Randy Johnson, who has made his case as one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball over the course of his career.

The Big Unit, Johnson, was born in 1963, the year Charlie Manuel’s father committed suicide as well as the year of Manuel’s first major league contract. Johnson was teammates with a third baseman named Graig Nettles in 1988 with the Montreal Expos.

 

Nettles began his playing career in 1967 with the Minnesota Twins. His last year with the Twins was in 1969, which of course was the year Charlie Manuel began his major league career, and for the same team, the Twins. I’m sure you’re sick of the Twins and the year 1969 by now.

Nettles was born in 1944, batted left-handed and threw right-handed, and played for the Cleveland Indians. Manuel was born in 1944, batted left and threw right, and managed the Cleveland Indians. Both also battled and have survived cancer.

Nettles also pitched for the San Diego Padres in 1986. One of his teammates was the memorable John Kruk, who of course went on to play for the Phillies from 1989-1994.

 

During those years, Kruk was a teammate of Mike Leiberthal, who also went on to play for the Phillies. Cole Hamels, the NLCS and World Series MVP in 2008 for Manuel’s World Champion Phillies, pitched a few of his first major league games to Leiberthal, completing the circle.

 

Tim Lincecum

 

Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

On May 6, 2007, Tim Lincecum made his major league debut for the San Francisco Giants. He took the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies, led by manager Charlie Manuel. Lincecum was replacing right-hander Russ Ortiz in the rotation due to injury.

 

Russ shares a last name with David, a current member of the Boston Red Sox, and former member of the…Minnesota Twins. (In case you have forgotten, the Twins were Manuel’s first team.)

David Ortiz began his career in 1997 with the Twins, when Hall of Fame player Paul Molitor was also a Twin. Molitor was born on Aug. 22, which connects him to me, since that’s also my birthday. Why does that matter? Well, er, I’m a Phillies fan. Does that work?

 

In all seriousness, Molitor played with a familiar name in 1991 for the Milwaukee Brewers: Rick Dempsey. If you have forgotten, Dempsey played with Manuel in 1969, and both later became coaches. Also, Dempsey replaced Sam Perlozzo as third base coach for the Orioles, and Perlozzo is the Phillies’ current third base coach. This then continues with Perlozzo’s and Manuel’s playing careers in Japan.

 

Adrian Gonzalez

 

First Baseman, San Diego Padres

Adrian Gonzalez is a tremendous baseball player. He has quietly put up stellar numbers in his five year career. But honestly, the man doesn’t have a strong association with Charlie Manuel, except for one connection: Randy Wolf.

Randy Wolf made a name for himself in the Phillies’ rotation after eight years of service with Philadelphia. During that time, he played with numerous current Phillies, and was also a player under Manuel for two seasons, in 2005 and 2006.

 

After moving on from the Phillies, Wolf became a member of the Dodgers in 2007 before pitching for the Astros and Padres during the 2008 seasons. This means Adrian Gonzalez was also his teammate.

So after all of that, it becomes clear that the lone connection between Gonzalez and Manuel is the fact that Wolf played under Manuel and with Gonzalez, correct?

 

Not quite, there’s more. After further investigation, I was able to find that Wolf also played with former Phillies closer Jose Mesa. Earlier in his career, Mesa was a member of the Baltimore Orioles. And one of Mesa’s teammates was Rick Dempsey (see Hanley Ramirez—if not read about Manuel/Dempsey). Man, these two keep coming back to each other.

But wait, there’s more. (I admit, I lied when I stated there was just one connection.) There is, in fact, another interesting group of players that connect these two.

Rene Gonzalez, who I found relates to Adrian solely based on last name, played in the majors for 13 seasons while playing for seven different clubs. Rene played for the California Angles on two occasions, in 1992-1993, and 1995.

 

In 1992, Bert Blyleven was a teammate of Rene’s on the Angels. Twenty-two years prior to that season in 1970, Blyleven was a member of the Minnesota Twins, just as Charlie Manuel was.

 

Ryan Howard

 

First Baseman, Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Howard has made a name for himself as one of baseball’s most elite and consistent power-hitters. But this relationship has absolutely nothing to do with power.

Ryan Howard’s current teammate, Jamie Moyer, has been in baseball for 22 long seasons. One of those came as a Chicago Cub in 1986, the year Moyer first pitched in the majors. Also on the Cubs that year was a commonly known name to many Phillies fans, and a member of one of the fastest infields baseball has ever seen: Davey Lopes.

In Lopes’ third season in the bigs, 1974, Charlie Manuel was preparing to end his career in the United States. Yet, before Manuel left for Japan, he signed on to play for the Dodgers in 1974 and 1975, meaning he and Lopes were teammates for two seasons.

Today, Davey Lopes is still remembered by Phillies fans for two reasons: 1) the controversy he was involved in during the 1977 NLCS when he was incorrectly called safe at a crucial point of game three, and 2) he is the current first base coach for the Phillies.

So there’s one last little connection: Davey Lopes is the first base coach and Ryan Howard plays first base.

 

Orlando Hudson

 

Second Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Orlando Hudson was not signed by the Dodgers until February 21 this past offseason, as many other clubs felt he was a risky pick-up. Well, for most of this season, this “risky” signing has worked out well for the first-place Dodgers.

Speaking of those Dodgers, their manager, Joe Torre, can surprisingly be linked to Charlie Manuel. When he first began his career for the Twins in 1969, Manuel played alongside Joe Grzenda. Grzenda ended his major league career after the 1972 season, which he spent with the St. Louis Cardinals. Another member of that Cardinals team? Joe Torre.

Also, the Dodgers’ third base coach, Larry Bowa, was the previous Phillies manager before Charlie Manuel joined the team.

Finally, Hudson’s teammate, Manny Ramirez has two connections to Charlie Manuel. First, Ramirez played under Manuel for the Cleveland Indians when Manuel was the Tribe’s hitting coach.

 

The second is through a player by the name of Shawon Dunston, who was Manny Ramirez’ teammate in 1998 with the Indians, also during the time Manuel was the hitting coach.

 

Yet Dunston’s linkage to Manuel goes further than this. Dunston, an outfielder who played for 18 seasons, was a member of the Chicago Cubs in 1985, the same year as Ron Cey. Cey, who was mentioned above within the Chase Utley connection, was a member of the 1974 Los Angeles Dodgers, just as Manuel was, along with Davey Lopes.

 

That’s it from Christian. This next list is from Richard Marsh aka “Vegas Rich.”

 

Rich has compiled quite the resume since joining B/R and I’m thrilled he joined in this task, especially since he’s a huge Mets fan and I cheer for the Phillies. But soon after I approached him with the idea, I started getting cold feet.

 

Hey, I’ve taken my vows—the last thing any of us needed was something else to be married to. But he hung in there and just like me, found that the research this project required was actually enjoyable. I’ll put my hat back on just so I can take it off for Rich too.

 

All-Star Picks from Vegas Rich

(Poe’s Note: Since Carlos Beltran was on the DL, Rich choose to do Carlos Lee).

 

Carlos Lee

 

Outfielder, Houston Astros

 

I’m finally getting the hang of this. Let’s take Carlos Lee. This is a bad boy hitter not to be confused with Derrick Lee who also hits for a ton. Derrick plays for the Cubs who may never win a World Series in this century.

 

Now Carlos, who swings the lumber for Houston (gee, I hope I didn’t get these two guys mixed up and I’m way too lazy to check it out) has a connection, ever so slight to Charlie Manuel.

 

Carlos Lee played with Carl Everett for the 2003 Chicago White Sox. Carl Everett played with Charlie Hough for the 1994 Florida Marlins. Charlie Hough played with Charlie Manuel for the 1974 Los Angeles Dodgers. See how easy that was. (Boy am I dense.)

 

 

Jason Marquis

 

Pitcher, Colorado Rockies

 

Jason Marquis is tied with two other pitchers for most wins in the majors right now at 11. Not too shabby, especially when he calls Coors Field his home park. He’s connected to Charlie Manuel this way. Jason played with Tom Glavine with the 2001 Atlanta Braves.

 

Glavine (traitor) played with Jerry Royster for the 1988 Braves and low and behold Jerry Royster played with Charlie Manuel on the 1975 Los Angeles Dodgers. Are you getting to see a pattern forming here?

 

 

Francisco Rodriguez

 

Pitcher, New York Mets

 

Lets move on to Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez (yeah!) and see if we can find some connection to Charlie. Oh no, can’t find one so I’ll make one up.

 

Charlie’s sister’s college roommate’s brother’s dad stopped at the same gas station in LA where at the next gas pump K-Rod’s auntie’s brother-in-law’s son was in a frenzy because he couldn’t find the tickets for game three of last year’s NLCS at Dodger Stadium.

 

When asked what he was looking for, he replied “I see your Swartz is as big as mine.” If you believe that, I have some bridge property to sell you in Brooklyn.

 

 

David Wright

 

Third Baseman, New York Mets

 

Now surely there’s a personal connection to Charlie Manuel right? None that I can find so I’ll make up one that is definitely more to be fact than fiction. David’s hitting instructor is Howard Johnson. HOJO’s manager in 1986 was Davey Johnson.

 

Davey became a manager with the Los Angeles Dodgers and as we know at some time in the mid-’70s, Charlie played for those same Dodgers.

 

There you go and I didn’t need any reference guide for that one.

 

 

Johan Santana

 

Pitcher, New York Mets

 

Now we have Johan Santana, the Mets ace and Charlie’s nightmare every time the Phillies have to face him. This too will ultimately come back to the Dodgers. Johan was a teammate with Ruben Sierra while playing for the 2006 Minnesota Twins.

 

Ruben played with Tom Paciorek (now that’s a name out of the past) for the 1986 Texas Rangers (they were pretty good back then; they just couldn’t beat the Yankees). Of course, Tommy played with Charlie with the 1974 Dodgers (what a surprise).

 

Three more to go.

 

 

Freddy Sanchez

 

Second Baseman, Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Let’s see what I can dig up on Freddy (soon to be traded) Sanchez. Freddy played with 100 year-old Jose Mesa for the 2005 Pittsburgh Pirates. Mesa played with Rick Dempsey for the 1992 Baltimore Orioles, and low and behold Rick Dempsey played with Charlie Manuel for the 1972 Minnesota Twins.

 

It would have been a lot shorter to say that Charlie managed Jose Mesa in Philadelphia a couple of years back but that would have been taking the easy road.

 

 

Miguel Tejada

 

Shortstop, Houston Astros

 

Moving on with this assignment, I had the good fortune to draw Miguel (how old am I?) Tejada. Let’s see where this goes. This is a good one. Miguel (we’re good friends now) sang with—NO—I mean played with Kenny Rogers for the 1999 Oakland Athletics.

 

Kenny, who is old as dirt, played with Charlie Hough for the 1989 Texas Rangers. Well, you already know the connection to Charlie Hough and Charlie Manuel (if you were paying any attention to this at all) but there’s just a little twist to this one.

 

No there isn’t. Gotcha. Both Charlie’s played for the 1974 Dodgers. (You are so easy.)

 

 

Ryan Zimmerman

 

Third Baseman, Washington Nationals

 

Last but not least, Ryan Zimmerman. This one is very cool. Lots of new names.

 

Ryan played with Tomakazu Okha (are you kidding me?) for the 2005 Washington Nationals (they really sucked). Okha (are you serious?) played with Tim Raines (now that was a five-tool player) for the 2001 Montreal Expos.

 

Tim played with another great player, Graig Nettles for the 1988 Expos and here’s the connection to Charlie. Nettles played with Charlie Manuel for the 1969 Minnesota Twins.

 

 

That’s it for Vegas Rich. You’re halfway there. The list of guys I was fortunate enough to review is below.

 

Mo’ from Poe

 

First I have to credit Baseball-Reference.com and the MLB pages for all the teams. Then I’ll credit the great Oz for giving me temporary use of a brain. And now, I’ll give you my list.

 

 

Ryan Braun

 

Outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers

 

We could start with the association between Charlie Manuel and the Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun for the fact that Braun played in the 2008 NLDS championship that the Phillies took from the Crew.

 

But did you know when Charlie Manuel played for the Minnesota Twins in 1972, he played with a guy named Steve Braun? Bet you didn’t care either. And Steve and Charlie both bat left and throw right. It’s also true that Steve is the name of Ryan Braun’s youngest brother who was drafted last year by the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

But the 2009 MLB All-Star, Ryan Joseph Braun, shouldn’t be mistaken for Ryan Zachary Braun who’s an MLB right-handed pitcher even though the Brewer’s outfielder has recently been reprimanded for criticizing his own team’s pitching.

 

Shame on him.

 

 

Raul Ibanez

 

Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies

 

Of course Raul is the “Pride of the Phillies.” Literally. He’s on the “Pride” lithograph this year. But did you know Charlie Manuel was drafted by the Minnesota Twins as an amateur free agent in 1963 but didn’t debut in the majors until 1969?

 

That’s the year he played with Graig Nettles. Then Nettles went on to play with Jeff Huson in 1988 with the Montreal Expos, and Huson played with Raul Ibanez for the Seattle Mariners in 1998.

 

And all four players bat left and throw right.

 

Raul Ibanez was also a favorite of Pat Gillick when he was in management for the Mariners from 2000-2005. Gillick was instrumental in bringing Ibanez to Philadelphia for a possible career record-breaking season with the signing of a 3 year $30 million contract.

 

On a further note, Raul Ibanez and Charlie Manuel both appeared in articles I’ve posted on B/R for their alleged use of performance-enhancing drugs.

 

Betcha didn’t know that.

 

 

Heath Bell

 

Pitcher, San Diego Padres

 

I imagine Heath Bell was voted into the All-Star game because of his 1.49 ERA over 34 games. Or the fact that he’s one of the league’s leading closers with 23 saves in 24 opportunities in his first full year in that position since San Diego traded Trevor Hoffman to the Brewers.

 

He had planned on taking his kids to Disneyland during the break, but Orlando will have to take a back seat to St. Louis. Wow, if I had a quarter for every time I said that.

 

In 2004 Bell pitched for the New York Mets along with another great—left-hander, Tom Glavine. Glavine debuted in the MLB at the age of 21 and had a career that spanned 22 years.

 

He’s a two-time Cy Young award winner, and one of only 24 pitchers in major league history to earn 300 career wins. As we all know, Glavine was released by the Braves on the same day that Randy Johnson chalked up his 300th career win.

 

Glavine pitched in the league so long he played for the Atlanta Braves in 1988 with Jerry Royster. That was Royster’s last year playing major league baseball, but earlier in his career he was on the Los Angeles Dodgers roster with an outfielder named Charlie Manuel who was finishing up his last year in pro ball in 1975.

 

 

Chad Billingsley

Jonathan Broxton

 

Pitchers, Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Here’s a two-fer. During their stints with the Dodgers, both Billingsley and Broxton pitched with four-time consecutive Cy Young award winner and eight-time All-Star, Greg Maddux.

 

But you might not know that Maddux played with Davey Lopes on the 1986 Chicago Cubs which finished with a losing record of 70-90, putting them in fifth position of six teams in the NL East–their division at the time.

 

Then Lopes played with Charlie Manuel for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1974, the year the Dodgers won their division and the NL championship but lost to the Athletics in the World Series, four games to one. Lopes, who led the national league with 77 stolen bases in 1975 and 63 in 1976, is 25th on the all-time stolen base leaders list with a career total of 557.

 

Now he’s the first base coach for the Philadelphia Phillies, hanging with Charlie in the dugout and coaxing guys to second base with his stopwatch.

 

How’s that for a connection.

 

 

Matt Cain

 

Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

 

You may have known that Matt Cain had a seven-game winning streak this season that contributed to his 10-2 record, his 2.42 season ERA, and his election to the All-Star game. And you might have guessed that Matt played with Barry Bonds for the Giants in 2005.

 

But what you probably don’t know is while Bonds may have been playing enhanced ball in 1986 for the Pittsburgh Pirates, right-handed pitcher, Rick Rhoden, was also on the roster.

 

That was the year Rhoden pitched his way to an All-Star roster spot, tied for fifth in Cy Young voting in the NL, and won a Silver Slugger award. And in 1984 he had an eleven-game hitting streak (yes, hitting streak), one of the longest in history for a pitcher.

 

In 1974, Rhoden played his first year in the majors for the Los Angeles Dodgers with a guy who was one year from retiring–Charlie Manuel. Charlie only played four games that year, as did Rhoden, so I’d like to allege that he and Charlie found plenty of time to talk.

 

Maybe Charlie, the man who’s been known to start a debate anywhere over philosophies of hitting, helped him out with his batting.

 

Hey, it could’ve happened.

 

 

Hunter Pence

 

Outfielder, Houston Astros

 

In 2007, Hunter Pence managed a 3rd place finish in overall voting for National League Rookie of the Year. Of course he trailed fellow 2009 All-Star Ryan Braun who was ROTY and runner-up Troy Tulowitzki by over 100 votes. But his performance was more comparable than the vote suggests. And now he’s playing in his first career All-Star game.

 

Good for him.

 

In his first major league season, he had the honor of playing with seven-time All-Star, Craig Biggio. That would be the three-time Golden Glove and five-time Silver Slugger’s last year in baseball. In his illustrious career, he played in six NL Division Series, two NL Championship Series, and one World Series but never earned a ring.

 

Biggio also played with Rick Rhoden for Houston in 1989, and we already know Rhoden’s 1974 connection to Charlie Manuel.

 

At least that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

 

 

Justin Upton

 

Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks

 

Justin and his brother BJ (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) are the highest drafted brothers in baseball. Justin joined the 1998 expansion club, the Diamondbacks in 2007, the year they won the NL West but lost the Championship to 1993 expansion team the Colorado Rockies.

 

2007 was also the first year veteran pitcher, 10-time All-Star, four-time Cy Young winner, World Series ring bearer, and now 300 club member, Randy Johnson, came back to Arizona after an unproductive two-year run with the Yankees.

 

I hope Justin got his autograph.

 

Anyway, Johnson has played in the big leagues so long he was a teammate on the 1988 Montreal Expos with Graig Nettles.

 

That’s not the first time we heard that name. Charlie played with Nettles in Minnesota in 1969.

 

It’s a small world.

 

 

Shane Victorino

 

Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies

 

What can I say? I’m a huge Phillies fan, a huge hustle fan, and a huge fan of Shane Victorino. You could say I was Shane-ing when Shane-ing wasn’t cool. There’s nothing that toots my horn more than trying, and Shane is the embodiment of try. I just wish he’d try to show us more of his body.

 

I’m sorry, was I thinking out loud?

 

Shane was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round of the 1999 amateur draft. Wait, that sounds familiar. Wasn’t Chase Utley drafted by the Dodgers in an amateur draft? Yup. In the second round in 1997. Both were drafted straight out of high school but Shane went to the minors while Chase became a scholar.

 

Anyway, the connection is, Chase Utley is undeniably Charlie Manuel’s favorite player. But since Shane’s return from the World Baseball Classic where he got absolutely zero play time and came back with a healthy coat of rust, he’s done nothing but accumulate stats.

 

Currently he’s second in the league in runs with 62 and hits at 107, he’s tied for second in triples, and he’s batting .308. But there’s no doubt he won the last spot on the NL All-Star roster due to his performance in the days preceding the close of voting.

 

And at 5’9”, Shane proves size doesn’t matter.

 

 

Jayson Werth

 

Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies

 

I could just say Charlie’s connection to Jayson is personal–Charlie personally picked Werth to replace the DL’ed Carlos Beltran, but did you also know Werth played with former Phillies pitcher, Tom “Flash” Gordon, who’s played for 21 seasons in the MLB?

 

That’s such a long career that in 1988 Gordon played with Kansas City Royal’s first baseman and designated hitter, Bill Buckner, who played ball with Charlie Manuel in his last year in the MLB in 1975 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

Also, Jayson’s stepfather, Dennis Werth, played five seasons in the MLB, his grandfather, Dick Schofield, played 21 years in the majors, and his uncle, Richard Craig Schofield, played for 14 years. But Jayson’s 2009 All-Star appearance is the first MLB award ever earned by any of his family of major league baseball players.

 

And he has Charlie Manuel to thank for that.

 

 

Brad Hawpe

 

Outfielder, Colorado Rockies

 

Brad Hawpe can connect to Charlie Manuel ironically through more Charlie’s. Hawpe was a member of the Rockies when Charles Johnson played his only year with Colorado in 2004. Charlie Johnson played with Charlie Hough for the 1994 Florida Marlins, and Hough played with the last Charlie—Manuel for the 1975 Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

But another connection is that Brad Hawpe was 24th in MVP voting the year Jimmy Rollins was selected National League MVP in 2007, and Rollins was a member of the 2005 All-Star squad with Albert Pujols, who is making his eighth All-Star appearance in nine seasons by playing on Charlie Manuel’s NL team this year.

 

 

Brian McCann

 

Catcher, Atlanta Braves

 

Brian McCann was playing for the Braves with Julio Franco in 2005, and Franco has played with the same Charlie Hough that connects to Brad Hawpe. Only this time, Hough was playing with the 1990 Texas Rangers. Over Hough’s 25 seasons in the MLB, he was elected to the All-Star roster only once–in 1986 while he was still in Texas.

 

McCann, in contrast, has appeared in four All-Star games in his five seasons in the majors. And both Charlie Manuel and Brian McCann bat left and hit right.

 

And McCann, just like 2009 All-Star team member, Jason Marquis, played with Tom Glavine for the Atlanta Braves. As Vegas Rich pointed out earlier, Glavine played with Jerry Royster for the 1988 Braves, and Jerry Royster played with Charlie Manuel on the 1975 Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

It’s definitely a small world.

 

 

Last but not least, we were joined by the immortal Bob Warja. Bob is the Chicago Cubs B/R Community Leader, he’s ranked No. 1 among Chicago Cubs and MLB writers, and he sits among the front page top writers on B/R.

 

If there was an All-Star game for writers, Bob would be there huffing and puffing, so you can imagine how humbled I was to have him join us.

 

And as a seasoned writer (like Vegas Rich), he took very little time to make his points.

 

Bob’s Job

 

Yadier Molina

Catcher

Ryan Franklin

Pitcher

Albert Pujols

First Baseman

St. Louis Cardinals

 

Yadier Molina, Ryan Franklin, and Albert Pujols have all played their entire careers for Tony La Russa. Tony was born on the fourth in 1944, just like Charlie Manuel, albeit in different months of the year.

 

Another similarity is that La Russa and Manuel both were signed as amateur free agents, each played six seasons in the majors, and both finished their Bob Uecker-type careers with a batting average below the Mendoza line. Oh, and each has managed a World Series winner.

 

 

Francisco Cordero

Pitcher, Cincinnati Reds

 

Francisco Cordero plays for Dusty Baker with the Reds and both Baker and Manuel were with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1975. Manuel was just finishing up his career, while Baker had been traded by the Braves to the Dodgers after the season ended.

 

 

Ted Lilly

Pitcher, Chicago Cubs

 

Did you know that both Ted Lilly and Charlie Manuel were born on Jan. 4? Do you care? Are you even still reading this? Anyway, both were with the Dodgers organization, and Lilly plays for Lou Piniella, who, like Manuel, has won a division title in each league. Each has one a pennant and one World Series title as manager.

 

 

Prince Fielder

First Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers

 

Prince Fielder’s father, Cecil Fielder, played in Japan just like Charlie Manuel.

 

How’s that for short and sweet.

 

 

The End

 

That’s it. Thanks for reading. Again, kudos to the guys who helped. I couldn’t have done it without them.

 

Now I must go rest my brain.

 

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