Poor Pitch Selection by Wellemeyer Helps Phillies, Hurts Cardinals

Hall of Shame: The Pete Rose Story

Mr. Hustle, Mr. Hustle.

Why should you be in the Hall of Shame?

As a player, you were extraordinary. You played in 17 All Star games, with three World Series tucked under your belt. You won two Golden Gloves, a few MVPs thrown in there, and a Sportsman of the Year by such an extravagant magazine.

You are the all-time leader in hits, at-bats, and games played.

You created the head first slide to a bag, and never actually walked when you were walked. You ran to first, and that garnished you the name Charlie Hustle.

Not only did you run to first when walked, but you had a run at Joe DiMaggio’s hitting record as well. 44 games in a row is quite a feat, it really is a wonder you only won 3 championships…

So why does the baseball world despise you?

The hate starting brewing that day at the 1970 All Star game. It was a close one, going into inning number 12 and Charlie Hustle singled and waited on first for the next batter. Another single and Rose sped to second. Another single and Rose decided to round third and try for home. For the win.

Then, Amos Otis made a terrible throw from center and the catcher (Ray Fosse of the Indians) had no chance at the ball. Rose decided to barrel into him anyway. 

Sure, he scored the winning run in the All Star game, thats great. But Rose seemed to have forgotten how little the All Star game actually means in the long run.

Fosse suffered a separated shoulder in the crash, and he never reached the power or average of that year again.

Thanks, Rose.

But that’s not all.

Rose was arrested for tax evasion when he failed to pay taxes on income he gathered from selling autographs, memorabilia, and horse racing. He served a short stint in prison, and soon paid the $300,000-plus he owed to the government.

Lies, lies, and more lies. 

Rose also had a gambling problem. He allegedly bet on baseball while he was managing the Cincinnati Reds.

Sports Illustrated shone the light on Rose’s bets. Rose, of course, denied the claims for many years, even stating in an interview with Jim Gray, “I’m not going to admit to something that didn’t happen.” 

Rose was confident in his language and use of words during the interview, and people believed him. He sounded real.

Then came the truth.

In his autobiography Rose admitted to betting on baseball; however, he said he only bet for the Reds to win.

Some may ask, “why does it matter if the point is to go out and win every game anyway? Why does it matter if you bet on your own team?” 

To answer that, I present you with a hypothetical.

Let’s say the playoffs are in a couple of weeks, and you have your best pitcher in now, your last game of the regular season. You need to rest that pitcher so he can perform to the best of his ability in the playoffs, but you want to win money, you are looking at the short term not the long term.

So you keep the pitcher in three extra innings and you win the game. But when the playoffs roll around, he is fatigued and doesn’t play as well as some may have hoped.

So even if Rose is telling the truth, which he is prone not to do, he could have thrown away a lot of wins for his club.

And that is why Pete Rose is the first member of the infamous Hall of Shame. 

Philadelphia Phillies’ Bullpen Faces Numerous Health, Consistency Issues

On July 17, the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen was at full strength for the first time all season.

Earlier in the season, J.C. Romero had spent 50-games suspended, closer Brad Lidge was placed on the disabled list for a few weeks in June, and relievers Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre were on the shelf for a period of time.

The bullpen that was so successful in 2008 pitched with that same effectiveness for the six days they were reuinited, yet three recent additions to the DL have the team scrambling for much needed help.

J.C. Romero, Chad Dubrin, and Clay Condrey were the most recent victims of the injury bug after the were placed on the 15-day DL this past week. Andrew Carpenter and Tyler Walker were called up to fill the bullpen’s holes.

While Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson continue to pitch well, the current challenges the bullpen faces will test their overall depth and talent.

The issue causing the most concern begins with the closer, Brad Lidge.

Lidge appears unable to solve the inconsistencies he has faced this season. He has yet to find any sort of groove, which is key for his mindset when closing games.

With nearly half of the regular bullpen not among the active relievers, there will be more situations when Lidge will be called on to pitch, especially in tied and one-run games. Pulling himself together will be key for the Phillies, especially in the long run.

Hopefully, the trio of Condrey, Durbin, and Romero can regain their health shortly after they become eligible to return to help solidify the bullpen.

Durbin has been inconsistent of late, which is likely due to his injury, but Condrey and Romero have been impressive in their appearances. Their return, along with whether they can stay healthy, will prove to be crucial if the Phillies want to run away with the National League East.

In other news, the Phillies reportedly told the Blue Jays that the asking price for Roy Halladay was more than they were willing to pay. A trade for the former Cy Young Award winner seems less likely with each day that goes by.

The Phillies are still in need of an additional starting pitcher, so a trade for Cliff Lee or Jarrod Washburn is a possibility.

If Lee or Washburn are not attainable, it is almost certain that another pitcher will be brought in. The market isn’t full of worthy trading pieces, but someone is going to have to be traded for.

Whether it’s a Joe Blanton-type trade or a CC Sabathia-type trade, the Phillies will need to equip themselves with one more quality pitcher to insert into the rotation.

Here’s a Thought: Brad Lidge Is Still Unhittable

Much has been made of the decline of Philadelphia Phillies closer Brad Lidge.

Lidge posted a 1.95 ERA and was 41-for-41 in saves last year.

This year, he’s got a 7.20 ERA and is 19-for-25 in saves.

Knowing my work, and the title of this article, you’re probably expecting me to say “But his FIP is the same!”

It’s not.

Lidge had a 2.41 FIP last year, and sports a 6.02 mark this year. Sure, that’s not quite as bad, but you probably figured anyway that the 1.95 ERA was a bit lucky and the 7.20 mark a bit unlucky.

And yet, despite all of that, Brad Lidge of 2009 is far closer to Brad Lidge of 2008 than one would think.

Let me explain.

Last year, Brad Lidge struck out 11.94 batters per nine innings. He walked 4.54, for a 2.63 K/BB ratio.

This year, his strikeout rate has fallen (10.03) and the walks have gone up (5.91), so his K/BB ratio has fallen to 1.70.

That’s quite a bit worse, but that would send Lidge’s 2.41 FIP to the 3.20 range by itself. There are still three missing runs of FIP to account for.

It’s pretty easy to find them.

Last year, Lidge allowed 0.26 homers per nine innings. This year, he’s switched up the digits of that number, allowing 2.06 homers per nine, a truly horrific figure.

It’s not his fault.

Research shows that homer rate is directly correlated to flyball rate, which makes sense: flyball pitchers allow more homers than groundball pitchers.

However, research also shows that the ratio of homers to flyballs regresses to the mean. What that means is that the ratio of homers to flies is essentially luck.

The average ratio is about 10-11 percent. If a pitcher’s HR/FB rate is 5%, they’re getting very lucky; if it’s 15%, they’re getting very unlucky.

Last year, Brad Lidge’s HR/FB was 3.9%.

This year, it’s 18.6%.

Furthermore, Lidge is allowing more outfield flies this year (43%) than last year (32.3%).

What’s essentially happening is that Lidge happened to get lucky in 2008 keeping his fly balls in the park. This season, his HR/FB has overcorrected (the fact that Citizens Bank Park is a homer-happy park contributes to that) and it’s taken his ERA and FIP with it.

There’s a stat called xFIP (Expected FIP) which is FIP with a normalized home run rate.

Lidge’s 2008 xFIP was 3.06; his 2009 mark is 4.68.

Lidge’s xFIP is more indicative of the nature of his decline than his ERA or FIP are. In fact, xFIP is really the best stat to use when evaluating pitchers in general.

So rather than a 5.25 run drop (ERA) or 3.79 run drop (FIP), Lidge’s performance is actually about 1.62 earned runs per nine innings worse than it was last year.

Now, you’re probably thinking “Shouldn’t this article just be titled ‘Brad Lidge Has Declined Slightly Less Than You Might Think’ or something?”

Nope.

He’s still unhittable, at least about as much as he was last year.

I’ll bet some of you are very skeptical of the HR/FB stuff, saying “Nope, Lidge has just gotten lit up. They’re crushing the ball off of him.”

Actually, they aren’t.

There are two very easy ways to tell how “hittable” a pitcher is.

The first one is line-drive rate. 

When a batter squares up a pitch perfectly and hits it as hard as possible, the result is a line drive. That’s why batters hit about .720 on line drives, .260 on ground balls, and .160 on fly balls. The ball is hit harder and there’s less time for fielders to react to it and cover ground.

Last year, Brad Lidge had a LD% (line drive percentage) of 21.5%. That’s actually a bit high. For someone so dominant, Lidge gave up a lot of hard-hit balls last season.

This year, Lidge’s LD% has fallen to 19.0%, which is about average. Hitters are having more trouble squaring up his pitches and hitting them hard.

Lidge’s LD% improvement lends credence to my theory that he’s simply getting unlucky with the HR/FB rate.

The other stat that measures “hittability” is Contact Percentage. Put simply, it is the percentage of swings against a pitcher that the batter makes contact. The higher the Contact Percentage, the more hittable the pitcher is.

This year, the MLB-average contact percentage is 80.7%, and it typically hovers around 80.

Lidge’s is 65.8%, third-best in the majors among pitchers with at least 20 innings (behind Michael Wuertz (56.5%) and Mark DiFelice (65.7%).

So Lidge is the third-most-unhittable pitcher in baseball in 2009, despite the 7.20 ERA.

Lidge is still the Brad Lidge that Phillies fans love and hitters fear. He still generates a similar number of empty swings and does better with limiting hard contact than he did in his huge 2008.

So what’s the reason for Lidge’s 1.62 xFIP decline?

Lidge’s command has slipped a bit, as his walk rate has increased and he’s finding the strike zone at the lowest clip of his career. That’s a source of concern, but a bit of a lapse in control is certainly less of an issue than some of the doomsday theories being thrown around about Lidge.

So don’t worry, Phillies fans. Brad Lidge is still unhittable. A few more strikes and some average luck, and he’ll be the shutdown guy you know him to be.

JP Ricciardi Should Stop Talking to Philadelphia

JP Ricciardi needs to make the decision now and stop discussing a possible trade with Philadelphia for Roy Halladay. If the latest reports coming out of the Philadelphia Inquirer are true (and it is tough to say if they are), then JP should put his Blackberry on silent and start making phone calls to some of his American League counterparts. 

It must be really frustrating from a Phillies fan’s perspective since Philadelphia has all the parts to get a deal done, but instead is being stubborn and will soon pay the price. Their team could miss out on obtaining the best pitcher in baseball. 

Ray Parrillo and Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer are now reporting that the Phillies are trying to convince the Jays to trade Halladay for a package centered around Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald. So instead of offering the Jays some of their current top prospects such as Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, and JA Happ, the Phillies believe it’s more fair if the Blue Jays receive a shortstop who was hitting .230 in Triple-A and a pitcher who has a terrible ERA of 5.18 with the same minor league affiliate. 

As a Blue Jay fan, I was absolutely disgusted when I read this headline. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball and can make the Phillies favourites to defend their championship title this year and possibly next year as well. 

One of the biggest impacts Halladay would have on the Phillies is his presence and leadership in the locker room, especially towards the younger players. His work ethic and determination would do wonders for the progress of Cole Hamels and give him that mentor to push him to become a better pitcher, just like he did for the career of AJ Burnett. 

Unfortunately for Phillie fans, it does not look like such an acquisition will occur anymore. If JP Ricciardi has any sense of logic and human emotion, he would have reacted so poorly to such a pathetic proposal that he might have told Amaro never to call him again.

With the Angels now really stepping up as players and offering the Jays a solid package with the likes of Jered Weaver, Brandon Wood, and Trevor Reckling, it looks like Ricciardi is centering his attention to the Halos. 

Reports out of New York are also suggesting that the Yankees and Jays have recently began talking about a deal and what pieces would have to be involved from a Yankee perspective. Ricciardi should do what is best for his team and put the Philadelphia trade possibility to bed.

 

Feel free to comment and express your opinion!

Cardinals-Phillies: Holliday Honeymoon Cancelled by Cards’ Bullpen

Unlike their last couple of  games, the Cardinals managed to get all the way through this one without a rain delay, although play was briefly stopped when some moronic Phillies fan shined a green laser pointer in the eyes of at least two St. Louis hitters.

Such diversionary tactics clearly weren’t needed by the reigning world champs.

The addition of Matt Holliday has certainly helped and revamped the Cards’ offense. However, any misguided fan of the Redbirds who thinks that this trade is an automatic golden ticket to the postseason would be wise to pay attention to this game, in which the Philadelphia Phillies battered St. Louis 14-6.

The St. Louis Cardinals are much better than they were a few days ago, but still have a few glaring weaknesses, mainly in their bullpen.

Kyle Lohse started the game, and got things off to a rough start, throwing over thirty pitches in the first inning and allowing three runs. However, he settled down a bit, and finished his other three innings of work without any major mistakes. The Cardinals had the lead, 4-3, when Lohse was taken out of the game.

However, once the game was handed over to a series of increasingly sloppy St. Louis middle relievers, the Phillies were allowed to go on a scoring spree.

Jason Motte, in particular, gave up four hits, five runs (four of them off a Jimmy Rollins grand slam), a walk, and only got one out.

Josh Kinney, who has been terrible all season, had a similarly bad outing today, allowing four hits and six runs.

Brad Thompson and Trever Miller didn’t do too badly in the game, but couldn’t fix the onslaught that occurred at the fragile hands of their fellow relief pitchers.

All of the great hitters in the world won’t help a team win if their bullpen is garnering these kind of results. I’d hate to see all of the talented starting pitchers and great hitters on the Cardinals denied their rightful playoff berth by the poor performance of their generally terrible bullpen.

Of course, when I say that, I’m not referring to the incredibly talented closer, Ryan Franklin. However, if the pitchers that precede him keep blowing games like this one, Franklin isn’t going to get very many save opportunities.

Despite the thumping that the team received at the hands of the Phillies, most St. Louis hitters didn’t have a bad day at the plate. In most games, these kinds of offensive numbers would have resulted in a clear St. Louis victory.

New Cardinal, Julio Lugo was downright impressive, going four for five, with a run and a RBI. Fellow newbie Matt Holliday went 2-for-4, also managing to piece together both a run and a RBI.

Rick Ankiel, who seems to have made an amazing turnaround in the last few games, went three for five with a home run. Ankiel also made an impressive catch in center field early in the game, robbing the Phillies of a home run.

It obviously didn’t make much of a difference in the final result of this blowout, but it was nice to see nice moments from a guy that hasn’t had any in a while.

Ryan Ludwick also belted a home run. Albert Pujols went 1-for-5, and had an RBI.

In fact, the only starting position player for the Cardinals that failed to impress at all in this game was Molina, who went 0-for-3. The Cardinals stranded 10 runners, which isn’t good in a landslide like this. Still, after the struggles at the plate they’ve had so far this season, it was nice to see this team get a barrel full of hits by guys that aren’t named Pujols.

Unfortunately, a few of the team’s pitchers made all of this offense irrelevant.

If St. Louis is going to be as good this season as they deserve to be, this problem is going to have to be addressed. The Cardinals are now down in their division by half a game, and they are in the middle of stretch where they are playing two of the toughest teams in baseball.

With stakes like these, landslides like this one cannot be allowed to happen again.

Roy Halladay: Phils, Halos, and Rays, Oh My!

Philadelphia Phillies Need a Halladay Break

The Phillies celebrated Christmas in July against the Cardinals Saturday afternoon with a 14-6 win. And if there was ever a reminder that the Phillies needed Roy Halladay then it came in this game.

So when a team rips off its 16th win in 18 games and scores 10 runs or more for the 15th time this season, why would the Phillies mess with success.

That’s easy to figure out.

First, the Phillies are not going to face the Mets, Reds, Pirates, Marlins, or Padres in the postseason all of which contributed to their recent tear. The Phils did get wins against the Cubs and Cardinals, but don’t get carried away. They beat up on Ted Lilly who is now on the DL and Kyle Lohse.

Second, they are not going to put 10 runs or more in the postseason with the ease they are doing it in the regular season.

Third, and the most important thing to remember is this: Halladay is arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

The Phillies are built for the regular season. The lineup good ‘ol Charlie Manuel trots out there may be the best in the biz. They can put up runs and they can put them up in the blink of an eye. But once the postseason rolls around, the bats will not be as effective.

Last year in 14 postseason games the Phillies only score more than five runs four times. Ironically one of those occurrences was a 10-run effort in the World Series. Those are impressive numbers in the postseason. But consider this: The Phillies held their opponents to three runs or less in 9 of those postseason games.

And even more eye-popping is that only three different Phillies starters registered a win in the postseason: Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Joe Blanton.

Phillies fans know Cole Hamels is not going to pitch on short rest so a fourth starter is needed. Brett Myers may not return to the starting rotation this year. This leaves the Phillies with Hamels and Blanton. Not bad, but Hamels is certainly not on point, and I don’t know how confident the Phillies feel about Blanton being the second starter.

Let’s give them both the benefit of the doubt considering they rose to the occasion last year. Pencil those two starters in. Who do the Phillies have after that?

J.A. Happ would probably be your third man out, but he’s not going to go heads up against slop in the postseason. Happ has seven wins this year. Two came out of the bullpen, the other five have not come against a playoff team. His best win came against the Marlins when he fought his way out of some jams against an offense that was sputtering.

Jamie Moyer and Pedro Martinez would battle it our for the final spot in the postseason rotation. Insert an AARP jokes you want and well, you get the point. I respect what both are trying to do this year, but respect does not win championships, it leads to moral victories. And the last time I checked there weren’t parades down Broad Street for moral victories.

Imagine if Halladay comes to the Phillies via a trade involving Happ. The starting pitching and bullpen would be bolstered.

Hamels would get the start in game one and I don’t have a problem with that. He is the reigning World Series MVP and Manuel will stay loyal to him.

Halladay would get the ball for the next game followed by Blanton.

Yes, the Phillies will still need a fourth starter, but now they have three solid starters in the postseason instead of two followed by a question mark and then either Moyer or Martinez.

And whoever does lose out in the battle between Moyer and Martinez will be sent to the pen, which should help out. If Moyer goes out there it is always nice to have a lefty come out of the pen to face one or two batters. And if Pedro goes out there you could possibly get three or more innings out of him, much like Chan Ho Park.

The Phillies have a great regular season and it will lead to a third-consecutive trip to the playoffs. But if they want to win a second-consecutive Championship they need Halladay because pitching wins championships.

Bigger Roar: Detroit Tigers Need Muscle For Stretch Run

Championships are built with pitching and defense: Case in point World Series Champions the Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox. Both teams exemplified team defense and had several stud pitching arms in their championship runs.

The Tigers resemble one of these teams that have both good pitching (second-best in the American League behind Seattle) and solid defense (fourth best in the AL), however there is one thing that they lack as they head towards the final two months of the season.  What is it? Offense.

The Phillies had plenty of that last year with Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard leading the way. Boston also had Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and others in their banner year.

The Tigers have some perennial bats like All-Star Curtis Granderson, 2008’s home run champion Miguel Cabrera and former batting champion, Magglio Ordonez.

After that, well, the line-up looks rather thin.

Sure, third baseman and defensive stalwart Brandon Inge has muscled up and sent home runs over the wall this year at a career-best pace.

Carlos Guillen is back and hit a homer in his first game off the disabled list, but he’s not 100 percent yet and many wonder if he’ll ever regain his .300 batting average and 100 RBI form ever again.

Marcus Thames provides nice power outbursts, but could be considered a liability defensively. Just as he is known for his hot streaks, he also has been known to dry up at the wrong times.

Ordonez has dropped off so much that he’s now not even playing full-time, merely platooning when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound or when the match-up calls. He’s even dropped in the line-up and has batted all the way in the seventh spot a few times this season behind Ryan Raburn, Inge and even recently-demoted Josh Anderson.

Not to be forgotten, Placido Polanco is batting way below his career average and hasn’t been the catalyst in the two spot in the batting order that he thrived in the last few seasons.

So, the question remains.

Where will the offense come from?

The Tigers will no doubt need it if they are to make the playoffs and win the pennant like they did back in 2006. That year, they had the arms and the bats, they led the league in runs, and were a worthy contender to win it all for the first time since 1984.

There is less than one week until the trade deadline and with perhaps the biggest bat on the market already gone with Matt Holliday, the Tigers must look elsewhere for some pop.

Guillen’s return is intriguing and many experts have called for his return as the move they needed. I’m still not convinced, though.

I’ve heard Toronto’s Marco Scutaro’s name in a couple different discussions and I like what he brings to the table. He’s a solid defender first that just so happens to be having the best offensive season of his career. He could spell Inge, who is having knee troubles, at third, play shortstop and also could give the veteran Polanco a rest once and awhile.

Washington’s Adam Dunn is another name that has been tossed into the ring by a few, but he just signed a big contract and I’m not sure Detroit has enough or is willing to trade enough prospects. His bat and power from the left side would be welcomed and he could easily fill that role in the clean-up spot behind Cabrera. Dunn, perhaps more than anyone else, is someone who just seems destined for the AL and the designated hitter role.

Some have even mentioned Cubs outfielder Milton Bradley as being the right fit in Detroit because manager Jim Leyland could control Bradley’s temperament. Plus, I think Bradley and the Cubs could use a change of scenery.

We all saw how well Bradley played in the AL last season as he was an all-star for the Texas Rangers.

Maybe the offense will come from within the organization.

The Tigers have several young hitters who could come up in September and provide a nice spark like Jacoby Ellsbury did for the Red Sox when he first was called up. I’m pretty sure the Tigers don’t have anyone of Ellsbury’s stature, but outfielder Wilkin Ramirez could raise a few eyebrows.

Some muscle definitely won’t hurt the Tigers as they make the final push at making the playoffs again.

The Twins have Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. The White Sox have Dye, Konerko and Quentin.

Maybe before long the Tigers will be able to brag about a trio that can compare with their rivals and divisional opponents.

Hopefully, they’ll be able to brag long after those other two squads are sent packing for the 2009 season.

MLB Trade Rumor Round-Up: July 25th

Let’s start with some Roy Halladay buzz. The Philadelphia Phillies have pulled out as the clear favorite to land him, and many sources are reporting they are pushing hard to land him. One report states the Jays have made an offer to the Phillies that would include sending Halladay to the Phils for JA Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown. Recently I’ve heard that the Phils have rejected this offer, but are expecting to counter with a similar deal….stay tuned.

There is some buzz around the league that the Detroit Tigers are interested in trading for Cubs’ outfielder Milton Bradley, possibly to use him as a DH. Bradley was not in Chicago’s line-up on Saturday, but it doesn’t seem any type of deal is close.

The St. Louis Cardinals have made it clear that Troy Glaus is on the trading block. The Detroit Tigers have already announced they have no interest in Glaus.

Many teams have shown recent interest in George Sherrill of the Orioles. Teams showing some interest include the Rangers, Brewers, White Sox, Cubs, and Marlins.

There are some rumors around the league that the Diamondbacks are ready to move catcher Chris Snyder.

 

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