Come to Think of It…Cubs-Phillies: The Difference Is Hittability

Similar to how that beer commercial talks about the difference being “drinkability,” the main difference between the Cubs and the defending champion Phils is “hittability.”

Yes, there are other differences between the two teams. The Phillies have much more team speed, for example. And they are very successful in picking the right time to steal.

In fact, their stolen base percentage is the best in the National League at 79 percent. The Cubs are last in the NL at just 60 percent.

But the main difference, to me, is the offensive firepower that the Fightin’ bring to the table. And we saw it on display all too painfully in the 13th inning when Jayson Werth hit a walk-off homer to beat the Cubs 4-1 on Tuesday night.

You just knew that a homer would somehow decide this game. And if anyone is going to hit a home run, the odds say it was going to be Philly.

The Phillies lead the league with 130 home runs. They have four players with 20 or more long balls.

But they are not one-dimensional.

They are third in OBP; sixth in batting average; first in slugging and OPS. Need I continue?

Let’s see…first in RBI, third in doubles, and perhaps most importantly, they lead the league in runs scored.

Meanwhile, the Cubs rank 13th in runs and 12th in OBP. These were two areas which they excelled in last year.

The pitching has generally been solid for the Cubbies. In fact, their team ERA is much better than the Phils. Hitters are batting a full 20 points higher against Phillies pitching than Cubs pitching.

Control has hurt the Cubs throughout the year. But it’s really been the lack of offense that has plagued the team this year.

What a difference a year makes.

Let’s face it, who scares opposing pitchers in the Cubs everyday lineup? Derrek Lee, maybe. Yet the Phillies have four or five hitters that scare the crap out of a pitcher.

Aramis Ramirez is a trooper for coming back when he easily could have hung up the spikes and had his surgery now, similar to what impending free agent Adrian Beltre did in Seattle.

But “A-Ram” looks like he won’t be ready to hit for power until he gets that shoulder fixed.

While Lou Piniella continues to work with Milton Bradley on his hitting, we can only hope that Alfonso Soriano continues to hit the ball. And a few homers would be nice as well.

At least we got him out of the lead-off role. Unfortunately, our best lead-off hitter may be playing in Iowa. A very small sample, to be sure, but there was simply no room for Sam Fuld.

I know it’s the defending champs and they are on a roll, having won 10 in a row, but two runs in 22 innings just won’t cut it.

Eventually someone is going to start winning consistently in our division, so we better get going. Let’s hope we can improve on that hittability, come to think of it.

Phillies Win Tenth Straight: Is This Team Destined to Repeat As Champs?

 

What a game.

 

Jayson Werth’s dramatic three-run home run with two outs in the bottom of the 13th inning propelled the Phillies to their tenth straight win on Tuesday.

 

Werth reached base in five of his six plate appearances, collecting two hits and three walks, but the heroes of the game were the five Phillies pitchers who combined to throw 13 stellar innings.

 

Blanton started the game, pitching seven strong innings, allowing just one run on five hits and no walks while striking out five. He lowered his ERA on the season from 4.44 to 4.24.

 

The bullpen was absolutely phenomenal, pitching six scoreless innings. Without allowing a hit.

 

Madson pitched a perfect eighth inning, taking over for Blanton. Lidge got a lucky double play to get out of the ninth. Chan Ho Park—the exiled former starter—pitched three hitless innings in relief, striking out five batters. And Clay Condrey topped it off with a perfect 13th inning.

 

It’s a good thing the pitching staff was so effective, especially because the heart of the lineup—Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez—combined to go 0-for-14 with six strikeouts, topped off by Howard’s 0-for-4 night with four strikeouts.

 

It’s a testament to the Phillies as a team, though, that this bunch can win despite subpar performances from its top hitters.

 

And both Howard and Ibanez came through in the 13th inning with clutch walks to set up Jayson Werth’s dramatic game-ending home run.

 

Werth’s home run broke a streak of 36 consecutive batters for both teams combined without a hit. In fact, no one had gotten a hit since Victorino singled with one out in the eighth inning.

 

The home run gave the Phillies their tenth consecutive win—the franchise’s longest winning streak in nearly 20 years. It also made the Phillies the first team defending a world title to win ten straight games since the 1971 Baltimore Orioles.

 

Coupled with the Mets’ 4-0 loss to the Nationals—seriously—the Phillies now have a ten game lead over the team many people thought would be the toughest competition in the already-tough NL East division.

 

The 53-38 Phillies are 6.5 games above the Florida Marlins in the division, seven up on the Atlanta Braves, and ten up on the Mets. Oh, and 27 above the Triple-A Nationals.

 

With a .582 winning percentage, the Phillies are now tied with the L.A. Angels for the majors’ fourth-best record, behind just the L.A. Dodgers, the Boston Red Sox, and the N.Y. Yankees.

 

The Phillies trail only the Dodgers in the NL and appear to be prime contenders to repeat as World Champions.

 

This team is good right now. Really good.

 

The Phillies can hit better than just about any team in baseball. Tonight’s one-run output in 12 and 2/3 innings was the exception, not the rule.

 

This team leads the National League in runs scored, home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS. Five of the eight hitters in the lineup are All-Stars and another is a former MVP who is hitting .388 over his last 16 games.

 

The pitching staff is looking better and better every day.

 

Joe Blanton is arguably the team’s top starting pitcher right now. Over his last ten starts, Blanton has a 4-1 record with just a 2.32 ERA. He has pitched at least seven innings in seven of the starts, and has recorded a quality start in all but one of his last ten.

 

J.A. Happ is making a solid case for himself as National League Rookie of the Year. He is undefeated on the season, at 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA.

 

Cole Hamels has struggled at times this season, but he is still the reigning World Series hero and arguably the game’s best big-game pitcher when it counts.

 

The bullpen is deep. Lights Out Lidge has struggled for sure this season, but the rest of the guys around him have stepped it up.

 

Ryan Madson has been brilliant as the team’s set-up man, compiling a 3.26 ERA, 16 holds, and nearly a strikeout per inning for the season. Chad Durbin (4.07), Clay Condrey (3.60), and Scott Eyre (1.96) have been terrific, especially as of late.

 

Even Park, who lost his starting job earlier in the season, was the unsung hero of today, with three hitless innings and five strikeouts.

 

The team can hit, pitch, and field.

 

The bottom line is that this team knows how to win. And they have proven it over and over again.

 

And they finally proved to the world last October they are capable of winning a World Championship.

 

This year is the ultimate test, as the Phillies look to defend their world title and become the first team since the ’99-’00 Yankees to repeat as champions.

Is Josh Willingham Coming to Philadelphia?

According to Scout.com the Phillies and Nats could be working on a potential deal for outfielder and right-hand bat Josh Willingham.

Willingham, in his first season with the Nationals, has 12 home runs in 246 at bats, and would be an excellent fit off the bench for a Phillies team desperate for a consistent right-handed bench player.

The report thinks the Nats would be interested in pitching and Willingham, making $3 million this season and arbitration eligible for the next two seasons, wouldn’t cost the Phils much in terms of star potential.

Just to throw some names out there as potential bait for Willingham the Phils have starters Vance Worley, Joe Savery, and Mike Stutes at Double-A Reading. None I would consider top-of-the-rotation guys, but all should have some future in the big leagues.

Read more Philly sports stuff at firedforwinning.com

Preview Game 91: Phillies vs. Cubs

Offense? Check.

Pitching? Check.

The Phillies had both covered last night in a 10-1 laugher at the expense of the Cubs, who had been making a surge in the NL Central. But the Phillies are continuing to roll as they go for their tenth straight win tonight.

Joe Blanton gets the start tonight for the Phillies. Blanton has only faced the Cubs once but he received a no-decision after 5.2 innings of two-run baseball last August. The Phillies lost that game 3-2. Blanton has won two straight games and has allowed one run in 14.2 innings in his last two starts.

For Chicago the pitcher on the mound will be Blanton’s former Oakland teammate, Rich Harden. Harden was acquired by the Cubs last year in a move to put the Cubs over the top and become the team to beat. The Phillies traded for Blanton, also from Oakland, and that move actually paid off better for the Phillies.

Harden enters tonight with a 1-0 record over the Phillies in two career starts. He is also 4-1 on the road this year, which evens up his season record at 6-6. Harden has pitched just 80 innings this season but has racked up 90 strike outs. He has walked 36 batters.

The Phillies brought their home record to .500 with last night’s win. The Phillies are now 23-23 at Citizens Bank Park and have won six straight at home. The Cubs are 20-26 on the road.

Phillies Record: 52-38
Cubs Record: 47-44

NL East Standings (Team, record, games behind)

1. PHILLIES 52-38, –
2. Braves 47-46, 6.5
3. Marlins 47-47, 7.0
4. Mets 44-48, 9.0
5. Nationals 26-66, 27.0

Pitching probables: Blanton (6-4, 4.44 ERA) vs. Harden (6-6, 5.06 ERA)

TV: Comcast Sportsnet (Philadelphia)

First pitch: 7:05pm

Season Series: Phillies lead 1-0

7.20 CHICAGO CUBS Preview/Open Thread/Recap

Open thread for the game will be posted at 6:30pm. Game recap will be up tomorrow morning.

The Phillies Are Good, Like Really Good

After the first two hitters of Monday night’s game against the Phillies I said to myself, “Man, the Phillies are good.”

Like really good.

Like the Cubs have no chance of winning a game in the postseason against these guys.

Within the first five minutes of the bottom half of the first inning the Cubs were in trouble. Two runners on, no one out for the meat of the order, and if you think the Cubs have a good lineup, the Phillies lineup is ridiculously good.

Roger Maris, er I mean Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley!

No, that is not a fantasy lineup, that is a World Series contending lineup and the lineup of the defending champs.

Not only is the three through five spots good for Philly but also the top of the order features a former MVP (Jimmy Rollins) and the starting center fielder for the 2009 NL All Star team (Shane Victorino).

The Phillies are so good that even after the top and the meat you still have 2009 All Star Jayson Werth ready to clean up everyone else’s mess.

Sheesh, that is totally ridiculous and if I were a pitcher, there would be a brown stain in the back of my pants every time I had runners on, nobody out for those mashers.

Phillies Fans are on Roy Halladay Watch

Now that the Pedro Watch is officially over, it is time to shift the focus back on the ever changing Roy Halladay sweepstakes and how the Phillies fit in.

Let’s take a moment to look at the situation.

The Toronto Blue Jays have announced that they will entertain offers for their Cy Young award winning pitcher, but have also said they do not mind waiting until the deadline to make the deal that best fits the Blue Jays. Mind you that means they could end up keeping Halladay, and who could blame them as Halladay is among the best pitchers in the game.

The Phillies have long been rumored to be a front runner to obtain Halladay, with the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees finding their name in the conversation as well.

Phillies fans want Halladay, but not at the expense that may be required. Today, Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman said that the Phillies would be unwilling to trade away top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, a name that could be considered a deal breaker. Other names that have been rumored to be part of various deals include minor leaguers Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown, Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and current Phillie JA Happ.

There in lies the sticking point.

Happ has won the fans’ support to keep him in town at all costs. To date, Happ has a perfect 7-0 record and has filled in at the fifth starter’s spot after Chan Ho Park faltered early in the season. Happ also carries one of the best ERA’s in the National League, and some consider Happ a leading candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. That’s all fine and dandy but as far as I’m concerned, if losing Happ means Halladay suits up in red pin stripes, it was nice knowing him.

I continue to be amazed at the overwhelming opinion that Happ should be untouchable. Let’s compare Happ and Halladay to date.

HAPP: 7-0, 2.68 ERA, 65 K, 33 BB, 1.15 WHIP
HALLADAY: 11-3, 2.73 ERA, 113 K, 17 BB, 1.07 WHIP

Halladay clearly has the advantage over Happ in every category, except he has a slightly higher earned run average. Keep in mind though that Halladay is pitching in a better offensive league, and has not faced the Phillies. Halladay has also not factored in a decision only four times this entire season. Happ, who took over a starting job on May 23 has not been handed a decision in six games. To his credit though, Happ has had some games blown after his departure and he left a couple games in a tie game.

So if somebody can tell me what the advantage of Happ, who has pitched mostly against mostly mediocre teams, is over Halladay I would love to hear it.

I will go on record and state that I would like to see the Phillies acquire Halladay at just about any cost, involving any of the players mentioned previously. This Phillies team is clearly built to win now, and while they are running away with the NL East they should not be complacent.

There is little room for standing still as the top competition within their own league has improved. The object at this stage for the franchise is now to win division titles and raise white flags with blue numbers.

This franchise has reached the level where anything other than red flags with white numbers is not good enough. Halladay gives the Phillies a better chance to win it all than Happ does.

It’s just that simple.

When Brett Myers Bounces Back, Who’ll Be Bumped from the Bullpen?

The entire Phillies pitching staff seems to be doing well right now. What would happen if Brett Myers were to return?

Myers, on the disabled list since May 28, says that he is ahead of schedule with his rehab and there is a belief that he could return to the team in some capacity by mid-August. Myers has stated that he will not have enough time to get prepared enough to throw 100 pitches, so a stint in the bullpen seems most likely for the former closer.

“There’s no time for me to get up to 100 pitches,” he said. “I’m not going to help the team if I go four innings. That’s not going to help anybody.”
—Brett Myers via Phillies.com

Adding Myers to the bullpen would be an interesting move. Which reliever would get bumped out of the mix? Clay Condrey? Looking at the group today, it would seem Condrey would be the first man out.

Figure the team will have five starters when Myers comes back and that rotation could include some new names such as Roy Halladay and/or Pedro Martinez.

Whatever happens with the pitching, it seems like it will be a good problem to have; too many arms are always a better problem to have than not enough.

Raul To the Rescue: Ibanez and Phillies Power Past Cubs, 10-1

Just when the Roy Halladay rumors started to hit high gear in Philadelphia, the current starting pitching got hot. Last night Rodrigo Lopez went six full innings, allowed one run on five hits, and struck out five batters, as the offense put a ten spot on the scoreboard. The Phillies beat the Cubs 10-1 to extend their winning streak to nine games.

The Phillies wasted no time getting to Cubs starter Ted Lilly. In the first inning, with Jimmy Rollins at third base and Shane Victorino at second base, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard failed to bring a run home. But Raul Ibanez saved the day with his 25th home run to dead center field to give the Phillies an early 3-0 lead.

Carlos Ruiz chipped in with a deep home run to right field in the second inning to put the Phillies up 5-0. After bringing four runs across the plate in the fourth inning the Phillies had all but put the Cubs away for the night. Ryan Howard added a solo home run, his 24th of the season in the eighth inning, to get the Phillies to double digits in runs scored.

Chad Durbin pitched three innings of relief and picked up a save in the game.

If the Happ Fits, Wear it: Settling the Roy Halladay Debate

Whenever a big-name, inning-eating, top-end ace is suddenly on the market, people tend to lose their heads. The defending World Champion Phillies have tried everything to jumpstart a stalling staff, and that even includes resurrecting Pedro Martinez. So it comes as no surprise that they have shown interest in Roy Halladay.

All I ask is for a little common sense.

It’s no secret that Philly’s starting pitching this season has left something to be desired. Cole Hamels has looked inconsistent and fragile. Jamie Moyer has been consistently awful. The Chan Ho Park experiment failed miserably. Joe Blanton has been Joe Blanton, which means good but never great. In fact, J.A. Happ has been the only starter who produced from day one. Why are we so eager to get rid of him?

Granted, Halladay is clearly the gem of this year’s trade deadline, and adding him would immediately make the Phillies favorites to repeat as World Champs. He’s a power pitcher who keeps the ball down and gets a ton of strikeouts, so the short porches in right and left wouldn’t be as bad for him as you think. He also goes deep into games, so the Phils wouldn’t have to rely on their shaky bullpen quite as often. Halladay would be a great fit, there is simply no denying it.

I wouldn’t mind if the Phillies gave up every prospect they have to get Halladay. Drabek, Taylor, Donald, Marson. I believe the phrase is “Sell the farm.” We have a chance to win now, and another World Series trophy would justify losing potential busts.

But J.A. Happ should be untouchable. If we trade Happ, we are hurting ourselves now and down the road. Happ isn’t a prospect, he’s a proven big league pitcher. He’s also a star, and with a few more starts like the one he had Sunday afternoon, he could be 2009’s National League Cy Young Winner.

Most importantly, Happ has actually been better than Roy Halladay this season. He has a 2.68 ERA to Halladay’s 2.73, and he is a perfect 7-0. He is also heating up, with an ERA of just 1.93 through four starts in July. Halladay has a 3.52 ERA in three July starts. This month, opponents are hitting .214 off Happ. They are hitting 50 points higher off of Halladay. Happ is also younger, cheaper, and he has been doing it all in Coors Field East.

In the very best scenario, Halladay would only be a minor upgrade to Happ, but when you look to the future, things get even worse. We would have to pay Halladay a ton of money if we want to keep him, and he’s not getting any younger. Happ has a high ceiling, and he has already proven that he can survive in this ballpark.

I want to win now, and Happ probably gives us just as much of a chance as Halladay does. Considering the long-term consequences, probably is good enough for me.

Down the road, Happ can only get better, and the window of opportunity isn’t closing on this Phillies team anytime soon. Besides Howard, the core is locked up for a very long time. Why throw part of that away if we don’t have to?

Philadelphia Phillies Look to Give Shareholders Explosive Second Half Returns

Sitting in my home office looking at the resurgence of my retirement plans as my quarterlies arrive in the mail, I take a glance at my flat screen TV and see that the Philadelphia Phillies are closing out another lopsided victory over the Chicago Cubs. 

As the Cubbies pull off their best Eric Bruntlett impersonation against journeyman Phillie pitcher Rodrigo Lopez, the Phightin’s performance over the last three weeks reminds me of the volatility of my 401k plans and our recent economy. 

And I heed the same advice—ride out the volatility, accept some short, downside risk in order to get long-term (uh, is a three-month schedule considered a long-tem bet?) returns.

As with any good portfolio, diversification is the overwriting component to success.  Judge the sum of the parts and not one individual stock may be having a bad period. 

All you fantasy league guys are the day traders of this world but the Warren Buffetts can see a good value and opportunities in market inefficiencies (trading deadline is a great opportunity for a short-term solution if you don’t mind paying the capital gains tax by giving up a few prospects).

Starting off the Phillies portfolio is leadoff man Jimmy Rollins.  When Jimmy was struggling in an 0 for 28 slump, the stock pickers were ready to dump this value pick like he was the next Bank of America. 

The longest held stock in this Phillie portfolio, J-Roll has paid great dividends over time.  “Look, Jimmy Rollins is what makes our offense go. Jimmy is what I like to call our catalyst” states portfolio manager Charlie Manuel. 

Charlie may have cut the dividend temporarily in these tough economic times by batting Jimmy sixth and sitting him out for three games, but he always had faith in the core portfolio holding. 

Jimmy has responded by raising his average from .202 to .236 after tonight’s game.  His year-over-year numbers may not be great, but when Jimmy’s hot, so is this portfolio.

Shane Victorino would be the Small Cap Growth fund of this group of holdings.  The first-time All Star is providing huge returns in this otherwise mature portfolio.  The spitfire strikes fear on the basepaths and when combined with leadoff Rollins, they provide as a financially sound catalyst for the big boys in the middle of the portfolio, er, order.

Chase Utley is the big blue chip stock in this grouping.  His dividends are higher than almost of all of his peers, is putting up great absolute returns, and has great fundamentals.  He would be tops on the screening list of companies looking to take possession of the four-time All Star, but the Phillies have locked up Utley well into his mid-30s and is now one of their preferred stocks.  He is the darling of Wall Street.

Another blue chip is Ryan Howard.  The tech stock of the group may provide more volatility with his propensity to strike out, but he can carry Manuel the fund manager and the rest of the picks by going on a two-week tear.  Not quite the consistent earnings of an Utley, or the career year he had in 2006, he is stook a good play to hit 45 home runs and 130 RBIs.

Raul Ibanez is the least-tenured holding in this mix of stocks being acquired via free agency from the Seattle Mariners in the offseason.

Ibanez was so hot and provided triple-digit returns in the first half of the season that his trading was halted due to a groin injury.  In his first game back from his stint on the DL, he hit two home runs.  Bought a price of $7.1M, this stock with a relatively good PE was a great pick.

Jayson Werth was the fifth, five-star stock ranked by Morningstar, sorry, MLB to make the All-Star team.  Werth would be my small- to mid-cap value play.  He is streaky to the point of white hot at times.  But we may have seen his full upside and will most likely not grow into a large-cap holding.  If you can stand the volatility, hold tight and expect solid returns. 

Pedro Feliz is my first bond holding.  The steady third basemen will decrease your overall volatility and beta by providing solid defense and a new approach at the plate by using the entire field is providing extra alpha for this otherwise staid holding.

Carlos Ruiz.  Another bond holding, his catching skills and handling of the pitching staff helps steady your overall financial plan.  If Feliz is a high-quality corporate bond, Ruiz is your high-yield play which acts like a stock—he provided strong returns by hitting over .300 through May but his average has dropped 50 percent over the last six weeks.

The pitching staff, like our 2009 stock market, has shown signs of life in the second half.  Over the last month, the starters have steadied the Phillies plan and have given more hope to postseason—this version of retirement—bliss. 

Acting ace Cole Hamels figures to be better in the second half with better fundamentals and pitch location.  I’d expect high returns from the 2008 World Series MVP in the last three months. 

Joe Blanton will be classified as “slow growth.” J.A., the newest member to the asset allocation mix, is the emerging market pick.  Posting the highest returns of any asset class year-to-date, beware of Happ for his little track experience. 

Lastly, closer Brad Lidge is the bank stock of this market needing government assistance and TARP money by taking his cranky right knee to the DL.  He has had modest returns after his returning from delisted from the index.

Charlie Manuel is running this portfolio like Will Danoff has run Fidelity Contrafund for the last fifteen years.  He is making the timely buys and sells, or lineup changes and pinch-hitting appearances. 

Not cut from the classic Wall Street mold, Manuel is more comfortable in the style and charisma of a Men’s Warehouse suit and drinking beer out a can than his peers who wear Armani and order $500 a bottle wine.  And Manuel has run as loose of a clubhouse as the SEC chairman Christopher Cox ran under the Bush administration.

So what to look for out this portfolio in the second half.  Will Federal Reserve chairman Ruben Amaro, Jr. have a loose fiscal policy and pursue big free agent pitchers? Will he try to tighten monetary policy and secure another arm to bolster the bullpen?   

Will Amaro, the first-term chairman go after the king of all hedge funds Roy Halladay?  Does he have to sacrifice the returns of the next decade by giving up Happ or a Kyle Drabek or a Dominic Brown. 

Take the cue from your predecessor and “stand Pat” on this one.  One torn labrum or Tommy John surgery can bring Hallady faster than once behemoth hedge fund Long Term Capital. 

Will their signing of diva Pedro Martinez be enough to decrease the volatility of the fifth spot in the rotation?  The REIT pick of this portfolio, Pedro is the noncorrelated asset in this locker room.  Let’s hope this REIT doesn’t default like the domestic commercial real estate market. 

After a June gloom that resembled 2008 stock returns, this portfolio has come to life.  The Phillies were a hostile takeover candidate of the American League by going 1-8 on against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles, the Phillies in high volume trading were being dumped by day traders faster than AIG last October. 

However, their 12-1 record and nine wins in a row is a leading indicator of the second half succes.  Their one game lead over the Marlins going into the last week before the break has ballooned into a 6.5 lead in the National League East.

So like any good financial advice, it takes discipline and patience to be a Phillies fan.  If you have the intestinual fortitude for this grouping, you may very well be able to toast your stocks, um, Phillies, come October

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