Charlie Manuel Is Coming to Town: Phillies Manager Brings Holiday Cheer

You’ll see him soon—showing up in his typical attire, the red and white suit, with his aged hat.

His socks sit about knee high, tucked under his insulated leggings to keep warm in the coldest days of the year. Waiting all year to deliver his special treat that he has given fans worldwide, near or far, for quite some time.

His name? Not Santa Claus, but Charlie Manuel.

However, it seems that each smile sender seems to have the same persona. Heck, everyone loves them, giving a not so far-fetched idea that Charlie Manuel is Santa Claus.

He may not have the elongated white beard, but Manuel has the color scheme, jovial spirit, and heart-warming personality that seem to give us all laughter and cheer.

At first, this Manuel couldn’t be real. He was only a hitting coach in Cleveland, and now you say he has an annual treat that he gives us all?

But then I see him at the annual Phillies Phestival, and everyone seems to be taking pictures with children standing by him or on his lap. Seems like this nonsensical and lackadaisical neophyte isn’t so bad after all.

Manuel also has some hardware in his house. It seems like his elves are always trying their hearts out just for all of us to enjoy a certain special time of year. With smiles like Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, I don’t think anyone could look at them and think otherwise. Besides longtime Mets fan, Uncle Scrooge.

I’m having a hard time grasping this Manuel character. But ever since 2007, I’m starting to believe in this pot-bellied…winner.

It’s not maybe next year. It’s always this year.

So when people ask,

“Do you believe in Santa?”

I say yes.

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Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen Options

Now that the Phillies have added Roy Halladay, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has turned his attention to shoring up their shaky bullpen. With Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre set to leave Philadelphia, Amaro has identified his two main targets: Fernando Rodney and Mike MacDougal. Both guys have experience closing, which is vital for the Phillies given how bad Brad Lidge performed last season.

The going rate for Rodney at this point seems to be somewhere in the 2 years/$12 million dollar range, which seems rather excessive when you consider that Mike Gonzalez, who is a superior pitcher, landed the exact same deal.

And even though Rodney has great stuff and was a decent closer for the Phillies this season, is he a guy that the Phillies should feel confident calling on in a big spot? Lemme put it to you this way, between Rodney and Brad Lidge, it could be a roller coaster season for the Phillies.

As for MacDougal, he had a nice couple months with the Nationals last season, but when it comes down to it, MacDougal is just a guy with great stuff and very poor control.

There’s a reason why the Nationals non-tendered him: even though MacDougal put together a nice season as the Nationals’ closer, his control makes him too much of a risk for the Nationals to pay him $3 million or so that he would have earned via arbitration. MacDougal should be a cheap option on the free agent market, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a good option for the Phillies given his control issues.

Before the Phillies make a final choice on MacDougal or Rodney, I’d suggest that they take a look into Jose Valverde. As I wrote a few days back, the market for Valverde stinks and it’s highly doubtful that he will come close to the 3 year/$30 million dollar contract he wanted this winter. Valverde is the best closer on the market, but because of his type A status, teams a shying away from offering him a contract.

That’s where the Phillis come in. With $118 million in payroll commitments already for 2010, the Phillies have roughly $22 million left to spend ($140 million dollar payroll), but a majority of that will be spent on arbitration raises.

If I’m Ruben Amaro, I would offer Valverde something like a one year deal worth $7.5 million dollars and a decent level of incentives.

Because the Phillies would have to surrender their first round pick to sign Valverde, I doubt they would be willing to pay more than that for a relief pitcher, no matter how good he may be. Valverde would give the Phillies a potentially dominant closer should Brad Lidge fail to return to his 2008 form and has far more upside than either Rodney or MacDougal.

If Valverde declines the offer, which I would expect, then Amaro can move on to options B and C. But there are plenty of reasons for Valverde to accept the deal. He would be placed in a great situation to play on a winning team where he might be able to close on a regular basis. And let’s face it, teams aren’t exactly clamoring to sign him, no matter how good of a closer he may be.

And the Phillies would be significantly upgrading their bullpen for 2010, which in my opinion is worth their first round pick given how minimal the commitment would be to Valverde. If Valverde joins the Phillies, then they would have to be the favorites in the National League.

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Report: Phillies Interested in Fernando Rodney, Offer Two-Year Deal

According to an ESPN.com report, the Philadelphia Phillies have expressed interest in signing free agent closer Fernando Rodney to a two-year contract at $12 million as a setup man and safety net to Brad Lidge.

Rodney, 32, converted on 37 saves in 38 opportunities last season with the Detroit Tigers while posing a 4.40 earned run average, the highest ERA among American League relievers with more than 20 save opportunities (Per ESPN).

The Los Angeles Angels are also closing in on a deal with Rodney, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Like the Phillies, the Angels see him as a setup guy who can pose as a fall back guy in case Brian Fuentes falters like he did in the second half last year.

Aside from his high ERA, Rodney performed well under pressure in 2009. In save situations, Rodney sported a 2.79 ERA while in nonsave situations he posted a 6.08 ERA. He held hitters to a .206 average with two outs and runners in scoring position.

Rodney owned a free agent closer market leading 1.40 groundball to fly ball ratio, which would work well with Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies are in need of late inning relievers, and Rodney fits the bill. Whether he’s the best option for the Fightins, we don’t know, but he could certainly help a bullpen that struggled to close games out in ’09.

Other names linked to the Phils: John Smoltz, Bob Howry, Miguel Batista and Kiko Calero.

For more Philadelphia sports coverage, please go to my blog: The Broad Street Scoop.

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Cliff Lee-Roy Halladay Trade: The Fantasy Baseball Impact

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Why Jayson Werth Should Learn from Jason Bay’s Mistake

Jayson Werth will hit the open market next winter as one of the premier free agent outfielders. All we know right now is that he’ll be asking for a pretty hefty raise from the Philadelphia Phillies, or he’ll pack his bags for someone who’s willing to give him the top dollar.

There is a very comparable situation happening right now in the baseball universe as Jason Bay has allowed his agent to price himself out of a good situation in Boston and into a situation that will not be very promising in terms of competing for a World Series.

With the Red Sox, Bay had a chance to win a championship every year as the Sox are one of the powerhouses in Major League Baseball. Like their division rival New York Yankees, they’re in contention every year; winning is key for these organizations.

Now, a return to Boston will not happen since they opted to sign Mike Cameron to replace Bay as its everyday left fielder. Therefore, Bay will be playing somewhere else next season.

As it appears right now, the New York Mets are the only team interested in signing him.

According to reports, the Mets are offering him four years worth $64 million to patrol the left side of the outfield at Citi Field for the next few seasons.

For Bay, leaving Boston to head to New York’s second team, will not be a great baseball decision.

Considering he played the better part of his first five years in the pros with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he’ll head to a team that has a lot of turmoil and doesn’t have a bright future.

Of course, you can’t blame Bay for pricing himself out of Boston as his agent, Joe Urbon, has handled the negotiations.

Urbon believes Bay is worth more than he really is and is trying to get his client the best possible deal he can. I can respect that, it’s his job.

What I don’t understand is why Bay rejected the Sox’ last offer, which is believed to be for four years in the $60-million range. The Mets are believed to have offered him $64 million over four years, which would be a few more than Boston.

In hind sight, I’m sure Bay wishes he had accept the Sox’ offer because a few more million to play for a non-playoff team instead of playing for a World Series competitor, is nonsense.

The problem with Bay is, he’s asking for five or six years and no team is willing to go that far. It’ll be a game of chicken until either Bay or a team budges on their stance.

With some background information about the Bay situation out of the way, let’s get back to Werth.

In all likelihood, he’ll be using what Bay will get as a starting point in negotiations next winter. By doing this, he could find himself in the same shoes Bay’s wearing right now.

Werth and Bay are very similar players. In fact, they had almost identical stats last year. Werth batted .268/.373/.506 while Bay hit .267/.384/.537. For Boston, Bay had 119 RBI compared to Werth’s 99 RBI with the Phillies. They each had 36 home runs.

Both don’t ground into many double plays, they hit a fair amount of doubles, and they post similar strikeout and walk numbers.

Since the two are the same player in different uniforms, they’ll be getting similar contracts.

Werth will ask for what Bay gets at the very least.

The only difference is Werth could have a better year in 2010, which would get him more.

My advice to Werth is: Learn from Bay, don’t let your agent blow your chance at winning titles. At the end of the day, you’ll appreciate the rings on your finger rather than the millions more you could get playing for an average squad.

For more Philadelphia sports coverage, please go to my blog: The Broad Street Scoop.

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Kyle Drabek, Future Cy Young or Future Sigh?

Kyle Drabek could possibly become the greatest pitcher in baseball for the next 15 years, but the chances of that happening are very slim. In fact, I am glad we got rid of Drabek. The Phillies, who are one of the oldest franchises in baseball, have rarely had a homegrown stud pitcher in the past 60 years.

Every year the Phillies have a new “future ace” pitcher, and every year the guy either fizzles out, or the next year is still struggling at the minor-league level (e.g. Scott Mathieson).

Kyle Drabek, a 22-year-old who has already had Tommy John surgery, is more likely to become the next Carlton Loewer (remember him? Of course not, he was terrible) before he become the next Robin Roberts.

The Phillies seemingly do a great job of picking position players in the draft (Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Rollins), at least in recent memory. The best pitcher to be drafted by the Fightin’ Phils has been Cole Hamels, who, other than his terrific 2008 postseason, has not been the so-called “ace” we assumed he would immediately be.

Our last two “can’t-miss” pitchers, Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek, are now wearing Indians and Blue Jays uniforms, respectively. I will make the bold prediction now that Phillies fans will not be losing any sleep in the upcoming seasons about having a rotation without Carrasco and Drabek.

Kyle Drabek, enjoy your stay north of the border. Maybe someday you can follow your father’s footsteps and earn a Cy Young award, but I feel your career will simply be a “sigh.”

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Here’s a Thought: Debunking the Myth of Cole Hamels’ Regression

Cole Hamels went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 2008. He ended the year a World Series hero.

Cole Hamels went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA in 2009. He ended the year a World Series bust.

Naturally, any fan seeing this would think that Hamels had some sort of huge fall from grace; he must have done more wrong in 2009 than 2008.

The media was all over this line of thinking, particularly in the playoffs (when, admittedly, he did struggle, unlike his excellent 2008 postseason).

Not so fast.

I was entering data into my True ERA spreadsheet today, and I was entering Hamels’ tRA in from Fangraphs when I noticed something.

Hamels’ Fielding Independent Pitching numbers from 2008 and 2009 are exactly equal, at 3.72.

Interesting.

Then again, in an article last night, I showed that Astros lefty Tim Byrdak was wildly underrated by FIP, so just because FIP says Hamels was the same pitcher in 2009 doesn’t mean he was.

But everywhere I looked, the numbers said the same thing.

Hamels’ xFIPs from 2008 (3.63) and 2009 (3.69) are very similar, as are his 2008 (4.18) and 2009 (4.29) tRAs. My own new metric, True ERA, has Hamels at 4.15 for 2008 and 4.20 for 2009.

So what in hell is going on here?

Hamels’ strikeout rate inched upwards this year, from 7.76 K/9 to 7.81. His walk rate decreased slightly as well, from 2.10 BB/9 to 2.00.

This led to an improved K/BB ratio of 3.91, up from 3.70 in 2008. His homer rate (1.11 HR/9 in 2008; 1.12 in 2009) was virtually unchanged as well.

Indeed, the ERA difference can be explained in the most obvious places—BABIP and strand rate. In 2008, Hamels’ BABIP was .270 and he stranded 76.0 percent of runners. In 2009, those figures were .325 and 72.1 percent.

In particular, the BABIP difference is the cause of Hamels’ problems. The only way this could be his fault is if he allowed harder contact in 2009 than 2008.

He didn’t.

In fact, Hamels’ line drive rate—the best indicator of how “hard” a pitcher gets hit, improved from 21.8 percent to 20.8 percent. 

Given his 20.8 percent line drive rate in 2009, the .325 BABIP likely isn’t a fluke, but given his 21.8 percent mark in 2008, the .270 mark in 2008 is wildly out of line. It should be around .330 to .340.

But Hamels, benefiting from the defense of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Pedro Feliz, and Jayson Werth, happened to have his fielders catch almost 20 percent of these balls that should’ve gone for hits. Hence, a .270 BABIP and a Philadelphia hero.

The numbers suggest that Hamels himself was about a 4.00 ERA pitcher all along. There wasn’t anything wrong with the lefty in ’09; he had just gotten lucky in 2008, and expectations were set higher than they should have been.

So what does this mean for Hamels going forward?

Well, we know three things about him.

The first two are good: for one, he can shut down an opponent any given day, and second, his K/BB ratio is excellent.

The one negative thing is that contact against him tends to be hard, as evidenced by the high liner and home run rates (Philadelphia’s park and Hamels’ flyball ways don’t help the latter number).

An excellent defense was able to counteract this in 2008, masking the problem, but it is a very real problem.

Hamels may need to throw a few more chase pitches out of the zone to keep the ball out of the middle of the plate. That may hurt his walk rate a little bit, but it would likely help his strikeout rate while reducing hard contact.

He pitches in the zone around 53 percent of the time, well above the 49 percent MLB average. He may work best at 50-51 percent.

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Is Roy Halladay the Biggest Difference Maker for the 2010 Phils?

Harry LeRoy Halladay III, welcome to the fold.  It has certainly been a whirlwind few days for the Phillies and their fans.

Boy Genius Ruben Amaro Jr. or RAJ as he is referred to, finally got his man.  The love that RAJ has for Halladay is remarkable, the way they looked at each other during the press conference was like watching a poorly made romantic comedy.  These guys have a serious “Bromance” going on. 

Not just any “Bromance,” this one resonated so deep that RAJ traded our best pitcher and three of our best prospects just to acquire him and some Canadian prospects from Seattle. 

Aside from the “Hollywood” storyline, are the Phillies actually any better?  After many days thinking about this, I say yes, yes we are.

Let’s review last year a bit.  Coming off a World Series victory, the Phils were headed into the season with Brett Myers making the opening day start.  So obviously Halladay > Myers.

But is Roy Halladay actually better than the man who’s number he is taking and replacing in the rotation, Clifton Phipher Lee? I say yes.

Prior to the postseason last year in September, Lee was really faltering. He had about 4-5 bad starts in a row. 

Halladay, a right-handed, ground ball pitcher, is tailor-made for the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park.  Lee has a small enough sample size to not make any mistakes that were really noticeable. 

But again, not taking anything away from Lee, I just feel Halladay, who will now be in the easier league for pitchers is just going to dominate.

Another great signing by RAJ, who has taken the back seat is Mr. Placido Polanco.  This guy is perfect for the Phillies, replacing Pedro Feliz as third. 

Polanco can also potentially bat second, so you can move down Victorino to the 7 spot in the lineup, making our bottom third much more dangerous. 

RAJ’s additions of Ross G-Load (and the Special Sauce) to replace Matt Stairs and Juan Castro in place of Bruntlett also can be considered upgrades, although no one is exactly taking the bench additions to the bank anytime soon, myself and my grandfather could be better additions than Stairs and Bruntlett.

Which bring me to my next and final point…

Eric Bruntlett will always be remembered in Philly, for his unassisted triple play last season and his role as a pinch runner/defensive replacement in the 2008 World Series.  But mostly, Eric Bruntlett will be remembered as champion. 

Someone with such little ability can have a large piece in a team going on to win a championship.

Now, I am hardly saying the Phillies couldn’t have won without Bruntlett, simply that everyone is talking nonstop about Halladay coming and Lee going, but if the “little guys” don’t perform at all, the Phillies will not make a third straight World Series trip.

Team consistency will be a key, and with the new additions of Gload, Castro, Polanco, and of course Halladay, the Phillies should have a much improved 2010, and possibly reach the 100-win plateau.

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The Philadelphia Phillies’ Perspective on the Roy Halladay trade

Three days after the initial shell shock of the Roy Halladay trade, and the dust is still settling on one of baseball’s biggest trades of the decade.

You’ve heard about this deal ad nauseum from Toronto sports writers, bloggers, and every Joe Blow sports fan out there, so why not have our friends from the other side of the 44th parallel weigh in on the biggest trade of the year?

Here is what Chris at The Fightins had to say:

Yes, (The Phillies) they did have to give up Clifton Phifer, but this is absolutely not a lateral move. Moving Lee was a baseball decision and we simply could not leave the “cupboard bare” for the future. But people this is Harry Leroy mo’ fuckin Halladay. If you aren’t excited, you don’t have a pulse.

Initially, I myself questioned the move by the Phillies to trade one Cy Young winner for another. At the time, it may not have seemed like much of an upgrade for Philadelphia to go from Cliff Lee to Roy Halladay.

The problem was that Cliff Lee was going to be seeking Roy Halladay-like money after 2010, and he was probably seeking a five or six year deal. Roy Halladay on the other hand just wants a chance to win, so the contract details are secondary to him. Whether it was three our four years, $20 million or $15 million…he didn’t care, so long as he can pitch in the playoffs.

Lots of folks have weighed in on whether the Phillies, Jays, or the Mariners are the winners in the deal. While the Phillies should be stoked about receiving the best pitcher in the game and immediately boosting their roster, to some extent they should also be concerned about losing their best pitching prospect.

Thankfully, Bill from CrashBurn Alley understands the quality of pitcher that the Blue Jays are receiving in return from the Phillies:

Losing one of baseball’s best starting pitchers is tough, no question, but hopefully the Jays acquire a prospect who may become the next Roy Halladay. They may have done that in acquiring Kyle Drabek from the Phillies, but Roy Halladays don’t just show up at the doorstep (or in a basket in the river, like Moses).

For the Phillies, it’s a short to midterm gain by aquiring Halladay, whereas the Blue Jays are looking for long-term results. Two teams who are on opposite ends of the spectrum right now, but don’t forget that up until the year 2000, the Phillies finished below .500 13 out of 14 seasons. It took them a long time to get where they are today.

And just like the Phillies built a championship team from the ground up, so too will the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Roy Halladay-Phillies: Trade Very Similar to Carlton Deal

The Phillies’ recent trade for Roy Halladay has been the talk of the town.

They acquired baseball’s premier pitcher. The only pitcher who could be better than Halladay right now would be Tim Lincecum.

The Phillies made a risky move trading away their ace pitcher Cliff Lee, but that makes the deal all the more interesting. Will the big risk equal a big reward? Or will it go down in flames?

The deal is very similar to a deal the Phillies made in February 1972. The St. Louis Cardinals were trying to trade away disgruntled left-handed pitcher Steve Carlton and were looking for a good team to trade with.

The Phillies, on the other hand, had fan-favorite Rick Wise, who was coming off his best season yet.

The Cardinals proposed a deal to the Phillies that would send Carlton to the Phillies in exchange for Wise. No other players would be involved, just a swap of aces.

The deal was the best in Phillies history as Carlton was 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA the next year. He would go on to win 241 games as a Phillie and became a Hall of Famer in 1994.

Now, Wise didn’t do so bad himself. He won 32 games for the Cards in the next two seasons and finished with a career record of 188-181.

Both of these deals are very similar. In 1972, Carlton was 27 while Wise was 26. Right now, Halladay is 32, and Lee is 31.

Both deals involved trading an extremely dominant pitcher for a fan favorite.

Both involved a pitcher who wanted to be traded.

Both involved a lefty and a righty (which isn’t a big deal, just coincidental).

Do I expect Halladay to pitch as well as Carlton? No, of course not, but I would be extremely happy if he did. Carlton won four Cy Young Awards as a Phillie. Who wouldn’t love that?

Of course, Lee isn’t going to the Blue Jays. He’s been traded to the Seattle Mariners, who will be formidable with Lee and Felix Hernandez leading their rotation.

But with Halladay and Hamels, the Phillies won’t be too bad themselves.

All I can hope for is that Halladay will be half as good as Carlton, but I’ll be happier if he can do just as good.

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