Philadelphia Phillies Best All-Time Teams

With the Philadelphia Phillies winning the World Series in 2008 (Carlos Ruiz charges out to meet pitcher Brad Lidge) and going to two straight World Series, Phils fans minds go to where this team ranks among the all-time great teams in baseball.

Well, they have not made their mark … yet.

The Atlanta Braves of the 1990s and early 2000 won 14 straight National League Eastern Division championships and one World Series and the New York Yankees won three straight World Series in 1998, 1999 and 2000.

There is time for this current squad to mark its own history.

But in the meantime, for fun, I will rank my top 11 Phillies teams, ranked mostly by regular season, post season and what could have been.

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Why the Philadelphia Phillies Appear on the Verge of Three-Peating in the NL

Every year as a Phillies fan, I’ve grown accustomed to saying “wait until next year.”

Next year we’ll pick up a big-name player in free agency. We’ll overtake the Braves or Mets in the division race. We’ll get a couple of good breaks, stay healthy all season, and win it all.

Guess what?

It happened.

2008 was a year to remember for Phillies fans. And I have a feeling that won’t be the last I’ll see of this championship team.

Even after watching the Phillies capture a division title in 2007 against all odds, nothing could have prepared me for a World Series Championship in 2008.

Everything came together that season. Brad Lidge and his the slider from hell converted all 48 save opportunities, putting together an unprecedented year that ranks up there with the greatest in history by a closer. The big bats—Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins—were hot when it counted the most.

And who can forget the team’s cool as ice left-hander Cole Hamels, who mowed down the Brewers, Dodgers, and Rays in the playoffs like they were a bunch of Double-A teams?

I wasn’t sure what to expect heading into last year, but I was impressed by this team.

The Phillies didn’t miss a beat, capturing a third consecutive NL East crown (this one by a solid margin) while becoming the first National League team since the 1995-96 Braves to appear in back-to-back World Series.

Sure, the World Series didn’t go as planned, but taking two out of six against a team with a payroll the size of Bill Gates’ bank account isn’t too bad.

I have high expectations for 2010. Really high.

There is absolutely no reason in my mind why this team shouldn’t capture a third consecutive pennant and second World Series title in three years.

Everything is there. Everything is in place.

Here are four main reasons why I think the Phillies are in prime position to win the 2010 World Series:

 

The Nucleus of the Team

How many World Series titles does a team need to be a dynasty? Three? Two titles and three appearances?

Either way, the Phillies have the talent to make it happen.

Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins comprise three-fourths of one of the greatest infields in baseball history. The outfield is composed of several blossoming stars in Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. And Cole Hamels—when he wants to be—is one of the most unhittable lefties in the game.

Say what you want about his batting average or high strikeout totals, but there are few players in baseball more feared than the 6’4 inch slugger. In fact, outside of superhuman MVP Albert Pujols, Howard is probably the most dangerous hitter in the game.

In just four seasons as a full-time starter, Howard has never failed to hit at least 45 home runs or drive in at least 135 runs. After seeing alarming drops in his slugging percentage from ’06 (.659) to ’07 (.584) to ’08 (.543), Howard put up a .571 mark last year that ranked fourth-best in the league.

Utley represents everything good about the game of baseball. He can hit, run, field, and he is one of the most intelligent men in the game. At the rate at which he is performing, he will go down as one of the greatest second basemen to ever play the sport.

Last year, he hit .282 with 31 home runs and 93 runs batted in. He reached base in almost 40 percent of his plate appearances, set a major league record by stealing 23 bases without getting caught, led the league in hit by pitches, and started in his fourth straight All-Star game.

How Utley has never finished higher than seventh in the MVP voting remains a mystery to me. Other than Pujols, Utley is probably the best player in baseball.

Rollins had a down year compared to his normal standards, struggling to stay above .200 for the first three months of the season. The former league MVP hit just .250 and his .296 on-base percentage was by far the lowest of his career.

It seems almost a certainty for Rollins to bounce back this season. Rollins brings with him a boatload of leadership, experience, and a Gold Glove at shortstop that might be the best in the business.

Victorino and Werth are two of the game’s top all-around outfielders. Each is superb defensively, a fine hitter, and a speedster who would give Usain Bolt a run for his money in a footrace.

And although he certainly wasn’t the Cole Hamels we hoped for last season, Hamels is still an elite pitcher in an era when hitters dominate.

Hamels’ numbers dropped from 2008 to 2009. After posting a 14-10 record with a 3.09 ERA, Hamels was just 10-11 last year with a 4.32 ERA.

The main difference? Bad Luck.

Hamels’ strikeout, walk, fly ball, line drive, and ground ball rates all remained the same. The only difference was his batting average on balls in play, which rose from .270 to .325.

Hamels has been pitching all offseason. And rumor has it, he has added a pretty good cutter to his pitch repertoire. I expect a big year from him in 2010.

And don’t forget Charlie Manuel.

While he may not speak the clearest form of English, and while there weren’t too many supporting him when he was hired as Phillies’ manager, it’s safe to say Manuel has earned his wings following three consecutive NL East titles, back-to-back World Series appearances, and a championship.

 

Roy Halladay:

You think Cliff Lee was special? Wait until you see The Doc.

He’s that good.

Prior to joining the Phillies, Halladay spent his entire 12 year career in Toronto. And for more than half of those, he was in the discussion for the best pitcher in baseball.

His credentials speak for themselves— six All-Star selections, a Cy Young award, and a reputation as a guy you don’t want to face.

Halladay is a workhorse. He’s a guy who wants the ball. Halladay has averaged 16 wins, over 200 innings pitched, and a 3.13 ERA over the last eight years. Those are phenomenal numbers.

During that span, Halladay ranks first among all major league pitchers in wins and complete games, second in earned run average, fourth in innings pitched, and ninth in strikeouts.

In an era when most pitchers are content to go five or six innings and let the bullpen take care of the rest, Halladay wants to finish what he has started. He has led the AL in complete games in each of the previous three seasons and five times in his career.

With all due respect to Colbert Richard Hamels, Halladay threw nearly as many complete games (four) in September 2009 as Hamels has in his career (six).

Initially, when the Phillies pulled off the three-team trade that sent Lee to the Mariners and brought Halladay to the Phillies, I wasn’t sure it was much of an upgrade.

It is.

Comparing Lee to Halladay is like comparing Donovan McNabb to Drew Brees. Sure, both are good players. But one is the best in the business, while the other is with a class of ten or so in the second tier.

Halladay has no postseason experience, you say. Lee was a machine last season for the Phillies. He was responsible for the club’s only two World Series wins. How could Halladay possibly duplicate that?

All valid points.

Just give Halladay a chance. After 12 seasons in postseason-less Toronto, Halladay must be itching to pitch in the playoffs.

He is a gamer. While Lee posted a 6.13 ERA in his seven starts down the stretch for the Phillies in ’09, Halladay very quietly went 4-3 with a 1.96 ERA for the fourth-place Blue Jays.

As mentioned, Halladay tossed four complete games in the final month of the season. Three of those were shutouts. His only two losses came when his team scored just a single run in each game.

Halladay’s career numbers in September are mind-boggling.

His 2.36 ERA is nearly a full run better than any other month (3.21 in May). His 3.92 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best of any month, as is his 1.062 WHIP. His .272 opponents on-base percentage is the same as what Hamels posted in the 2008 season, a figure that led the league.

You think Doc tires in September from a long season?

Nope.

Six of Halladay’s 15 career shutouts have come in September. His 13 complete games are four more than any other month. Simply put, this is a guy you want on your team in crunch time.

Halladay has five pitches he feels comfortable using in any situation—a fastball that tops out around 95 miles per hour, a sinker, a cutter, a changeup, and a curveball. He learned his sinker from Derek Lowe, turning Halladay into a ground ball pitcher, yet still a 200-strikeout guy with pinpoint control.

Halladay led the American League in strikeout-to-walk ratio each of the last two seasons, posting astronomical totals (5.28 in 2008 and 5.94 in 2009). He’s the type of guy who will pitch a complete game and not walk a batter. In fact, since 2002, Halladay leads all pitchers with 54 games of seven or more innings pitched and no walks.

The transition to the NL should only benefit Halladay, who spent the last decade-plus pitching to nine real pitchers. With the pitcher hitting at the bottom of the lineup, Halladay should shine like never before. He already posts a 2.88 career ERA in NL ballparks.

The sky is the limit for Halladay in 2010. He threw two scoreless innings in his spring training debut, and followed that up with three more scoreless innings in his second outing.

He has loads of talent around him —both offensively and defensively. His team has appeared in the playoffs for three consecutive seasons, and there is no reason to suspect it won’t soon be a fourth.

Expect Halladay to play a major role for this team.

Consistency:

The Phillies are no fluke. You can’t make two consecutive World Series and be a fluke.

No one had a career year for the Phillies last season. That is exciting. This team isn’t a one-year wonder. It is a talented group of 25 ballplayers.

Ryan Howard hit 45 home runs and drove in 141 runs last year, but those aren’t unusual numbers for Howard. That is just a typical season for the big man.

Utley didn’t set a career-high in any statistic. In fact, of the five years he has been a full-time starter, Utley actually posted career lows in doubles (28), runs batted in (93), batting average (.282), slugging percentage (.508), and OPS (.905).

Rollins couldn’t keep his batting average above .220 until the All-Star break, and finished the year with by far the lowest on-base percentage (.296) of his career.

The entire outfield —Raul Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth —made the All-Star team, but then again, all three are All-Star caliber players. Ibanez started the season on fire, but cooled off to the point that he wouldn’t have made the team if the voting was conducted at the end of the year.

Victorino probably didn’t deserve the final spot (San Francisco’s Pablo Sandoval was a little better), but he is a guy who is going to be a .292 hitter with 25 steals for years.

And Werth? Well, he’s as good as his numbers (36 home runs, 20 steals) indicate. He’s one of the game’s top five-tool players, even though he doesn’t get a lot of credit.

In the rotation, Hamels struggled to find his groove all season. Jamie Moyer lost his starting spot late in the year. Brett Myers missed extended time with an injury.

With the possible exception of J.A. Happ, a Rookie of the Year candidate who won 12 games while posting a 2.93 ERA, no one exceeded expectations. And it is too early to tell for Happ, a first-year starter in ’09.

After a lights out season that propelled the Phillies to the World Championship in ’08, the ’09 Brad Lidge put together the worst season by a closer in the history of major league baseball—by far.

His 7.21 ERA is the highest ever by a closer with at least 20 saves. He lost all eight of his decisions and yielded 11 home runs in just 58.2 innings pitched. Oh, and he blew 11 saves in just 42 opportunities.

And the Phillies made the World Series.

That’s how good this team is.

Rollins slumped for half the season, Hamels couldn’t regain any sort of the form he displayed in ’08, Myers spent most of the year on the DL, Moyer lost his starting job, and Lidge turned an entire city against him —and the Phillies still reached the World Series.

As long as everyone does what it is expected, the Phillies are in good position for 2010.

 

Experience

Experience helps in October. And the Phillies have it.

All eight starters in the field have played in a World Series. All but Ibanez and Placido Polanco have played in each of the last two World Series.

These aren’t guys who are new to playoff baseball. Utley hit five home runs in a single World Series last year. Howard would have won the World Series MVP in ’08 had it not been for Hamels’ dominating performances on the mound. And Rollins had the biggest hit of the playoffs last season, when his two-out two-run double in Game Four of the NLCS gave the Phillies a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.

Other than Halladay, the pitching staff is loaded with guys who have experience in the postseason. Hamels earned both the NLCS and the World Series MVP award in ’08.

Blanton has started five games in the playoffs over the past two seasons. Moyer, although he was left off the postseason roster last season, played an instrumental role in the Phillies’ championship run in ’08.

And don’t forget Lights Out, who has still yet to blow a postseason save as a member of the Phillies, converting all ten since ’08.

 

Breaking Down The Competition:

When you win the division three years in a row and appear in back-to-back World Series, it adds some pressure. People follow you more closely. You’re expected to do well.

That’s okay. The Phillies are this good.

In Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson, the Braves have a pretty solid pitching rotation. In fact, I would put their rotation up with almost every team in the league but I can’t see their lineup producing enough to keep this team going into October.

The Mets finished just 70-92 last year. They were decimated with injuries. I would be surprised if that makes the difference between a fourth place finish in the NL East and a run at the playoffs.

The Marlins, unfortunately for them, don’t have the money to keep around their best players. While they finished 87-75 last season, they were only projected to win 82 according to Baseball Reference. I can’t see them competing.

And the Nationals? No comment needed.

Now that’s not to say some other team from the NL couldn’t overtake the Phillies.

The Giants return a top-notch pitching staff with Matt Cain and reigning Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum. The Cardinals, last year’s NL Central champions, boast the game’s best player (Albert Pujols) and two elite starting pitchers (Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright). The Dodgers have been to the NLCS two straight seasons.

And don’t forget about the Yankees or the Red Sox in the AL, two teams who seem certain to represent their respective league in the World Series. These teams —especially the Yankees, with their limitless payrol l—pose a serious threat to the Phillies.

At worst, I see the Phillies winning their division and losing early in the playoffs.

And at best?

Well, it certainly looks like this team has what it takes to return to the World Series. I wouldn’t count out 100 regular season games. As long as the Doc pitches like the Doc, the hitters hit, and Lidge returns to some form between his ’08 and ’09 seasons, this team is the team to beat in the National League.

Maybe all of baseball.

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Phillies’ Brad Lidge Might Not Be Ready By Opening Day

If in spring training last season, you had told me the Philadelphia Phillies would be without closer Brad Lidge for the first week or two of the regular season, I would seriously be worried.

Now if you told me Lidge might miss one or two weeks at the start of season, I would say so what, no big deal. Funny what a difference a year makes.

In an interview with MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, the Phillies’ closer doesn’t think he will be ready by Opening Day.

“It’s going to be really tough to be ready for the opener,” Lidge said. “In my mind I’m still shooting for it, but I don’t know if that’s realistic. I definitely will like I’ll be ready for (the April 12-15 series against the Nationals at Citizens Bank Park) if I progress the way it should. … I want to be out there as much as I can, but we’ve got a deep bullpen. Obviously, we’ve got guys that can get it done while J.C. (Romero ) and I are getting our arm speed back. If we were on a bubble team and we had to be ready from Day 1 that’s one thing, but I think our team can cover just about anybody at any position for a week or two. That’s the fortunate part of being on a team as good as us.”

A couple of thoughts about what Lidge said.

“Obviously, we’ve got guys that can get it done while J.C. (Romero ) and I are getting our arm speed back.” Lidge is referring to Danys Baez and Ryan Madson. Both are decent fallback options, but at the same time, they are as shaky as Lidge at this point.

I wouldn’t trust either of them to close out a game.

“If we were on a bubble team and we had to be ready from day one that’s one thing, but I think our team can cover just about anybody at any position for a week or two.” Lidge hit the nail on the head on that one.

The Phillies are five to 10 games better than the next best team in the National League East. Losing Lidge now shouldn’t be a factor down the stretch for Philadelphia.

Look for Madson to get the first shot at the closer’s role until Lidge comes back.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Philadelphia Phillies: Polanco’s Injury Worth Ransom Plan

When you are two-time National League champion, there is little room for non-roster players looking to make the squad.

As a Phillies fan, I am no longer looking hopefully as Ricky Ledee or John Wockenfuss are added to the squad, with past potential or successes leading to a promising Phillies season.

Nope. I am in baseball hog heaven. These are the gravy years.

So when the Phillies added six non-roster players to their squad over the winter, I was most impressed initially by DeWayne Wise, who made a game-saving catch in the White Sox Mark Buerhle’s perfect game last year.

Among the “invited” six was Cody Ransom, who filled in for the Yankees when Alex Rodriguez went down at third last year. In 79 at-bats, he hit just .190 with no homers.

He is hitting .294 this spring. For his career in 262 at-bats, he has a .233 career average with seven home runs and 34 RBI.

Obviously Juan Castro, late of the Dodgers with 2,484 Major League at bats, and Greg Dobbs with 926 at bats, are the primary backups at third.

But when Placido Polanco went down fielding a pop up on Monday and went off limping with an injured right knee, a slight panic of future trouble crept into my mind.

“Poly” as the Tigers grew to know him, turned out to be an iron man with a good bat as the everyday second baseman with the Tigers. He hovered around .300 with Detroit, hitting .341 in 2007 in 587 at bats.

With the Phillies, Polanco will play third and back up Chase Utley at second.

A long-term injury to Polanco, which fortunately did not happen, would be harmful to the Phillies on offense, in particular, and defense, secondarily.

My buddies and I agree that neither Dobbs or Castro thrill us as long-term solutions at third, which gives me hope that Ransom could be in the mix if a need arises where Polanco is hurt or Polanco has to play second base.

Philadelphia Daily News sportswriting icon Bill Conlin wrote earlier this winter that depth could be a trouble spot for the Phillies.

We all remember what happened to the Mets last year. Injury and lack of depth certainly hurt the Mets.

The year 2010 is a new beginning for all Eastern Division teams.

The Mets got Jason Bay to protect David Wright in the Mets offense. The Marlins kept a good young core, the Braves added offense and pitching depth, and Washington got a top line pitcher, Jason Marquis, among other moves to improve the club.

I am not saying Ransom is a world beater.

I am saying that in a long baseball season, Ransom could see major time with the club.

And that is fine with me.

Even though he is 34 years old, a club needs youth to grow, but also experience to fill the gaps of injury and a need to stay on top of the division.

Even though he will probably start the year in Triple A, Cody will provide needed insurance, and he does not ….

(drum roll)

cost a ransom.

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Cards’ Pujols For Phils’ Howard Lies Between Fantasy, Reality

An ESPN report over the weekend stated that the Philadelphia Phillies talked internally about the possibility of shipping first baseman Ryan Howard to the St. Louis Cardinals for first baseman Albert Pujols.

Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro told espn.com, “I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”

Howard is hugely popular in Philadelphia, but Pujols is a God in St. Louis.

For baseball fans, it is a fun thing to consider. Fans in both cities, however, think the deal would be crazy. Especially in St. Louis.

The only way it makes sense is salary.

According to the ESPN report, said that some within the Phillies’ organization believed that Pujols may want a larger contract than the Cardinals can afford. Pujols is eligible for free agency after the 2011 season and talks on an extension so far have not been smooth.

The feeling in Philadelphia is that Pujols will not settle for anything that doesn’t exceed the record-setting 10-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees in 2007.

The Phillies may be willing to offer it, especially since Pujols is both a Gold Glove-winning fielder, and as a righthander would balance a Phillies lineup seen as too lefthanded.

Howard is under contract for each of the next two seasons at $19 million and $20 million, which is more than Pujols will make, but he is expected to be less costly after that.

While Pujols may seek more than Howard, the Phillies slugger will also seek a huge contract.

But let’s look at this as a fantasy baseball trade. Where it makes the most sense.

On the surface, the scales would be pointed toward Pujols, who hit .327, with 47 home runs and 135 RBI and was named league MVP in 2009.

Howard, in 2009, hit .279 with 45 home runs and 141 RBI.

If you take the three year averages, however, a case could be made for Howard.

Over the past three years, Pujols averages .337, 38.6 and 118. Howard averages .266, 46.6 and 141.

Howard loses in average, but gains about eight home runs and 23 RBI.

I imagine Pujols goes for higher dollars in fantasy than Howard, also.

Back to reality, rarely does superstar get traded for superstar, so it is not likely to happen. It could happen, however, in fantasy camps, as anybody is up for trade.

As a Phillies fan, as much as it would hurt to lose Howard, here’s how the lineup would look with Pujols in pin stripes.

1. Rollins

2. Polonco/Victorino

3. Utley

4. Pujols

5. Werth

6. Ibanez

7. Victorino/Polonco

8. Ruiz

9. Pitcher

Pujols would be mighty scary in a Phillies uniform. Howard would eventually become popular in his hometown of St. Louis.

Rumor is what makes baseball fun.

 

 

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Phillies Welcome Placido Polanco’s Return

Darting to his right, Placido Polanco reached down, snared the sharp grounder, and whipped the ball around to second baseman Chase Utley. The Phillies’ second baseman fired the ball off to Ryan Howard to complete the 5-4-3 inning-ending double play.

As Polanco jogged toward the dugout, the visiting third base coach, the Tigers’ Gene Lamont, congratulated the N.L. defending champs’ new third baseman.

Turning two is routine for Polanco—but from the other side of the infield.

When Polanco signed with the Phillies this offseason, he agreed to move from second base to third. In Polanco’s absence, Utley developed into one of the game’s premier second basemen, and manager Charlie Manuel opted to shift the newly-acquired infielder around the horn. 

When he took the field against his former team on March 11 in Clearwater, Fla., Polanco looked as though third base was the only position he has played on defense. 

He was patient and set his feet firmly before throwing across the diamond to Howard. He told Philadelphia baseball writers that he felt comfortable at the position he has not played since the 2005 season, when he played nine games at third for the Phillies and the Tigers.

Polanco settled into his role as a middle infielder during his tenure with the Tigers. He won the Gold Glove Award at second base in 2007 and 2009. And he set a Major League record for second basemen in ’07 for playing the entire season without giving up an error in the field.

The Phillies value what Polanco will contribute to a more complete defensive arrangement and well-rounded batting order.

“He brings a lot of experience,” Utley said. “He brings a great glove, and he makes contact all the time, consistently. You can’t ask for much more out of a player.”

Polanco replaces Pedro Feliz at third for Philadelphia. Though Feliz’ RBI single in Game Five of the 2008 World Series clinched the Phillies’ championship, his numbers do not compare to those of Polanco.

Feliz batted a .266 clip in his last season in Philadelphia, hitting 12 home runs, driving in 82 RBI, and scoring 62 times. During four years in Detroit, Polanco posted a higher batting average (.307) and scored more times than Feliz (at least 82 runs per season). 

The only glaring discrepancy, however, is that Polanco’s bat has had less pop. He drove in fewer runs, hitting seven homers and bringing in 72 runners in his last season in Detroit. But between Jimmy Rollins and Utley in the Phillies’ batting order, Polanco’s run total is expected to rise and cover the difference.

Polanco has a definite edge over Feliz on the base paths. He stole seven bases and was caught stealing twice. Feliz did not steal any bases, nor was he caught stealing. Polanco’s .331 on-base percentage was greater than Feliz’s .308 OBP.

And in the field, Feliz recorded a respectable .966 fielding percentage. But Polanco excelled at second base with a near-spotless .997 fielding percentage. 

The Phillies are to benefit if Polanco maintains those numbers through the transition to third base.

 

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Bullpen Looks a Little Thin Heading into 2010 Season

The Phillies’ past offseason was one of the more exciting in recent memory.

The acquisitions of starting pitcher Roy Halladay and infielder Placido Polanco make the two-time defending National League champions even better.

However, the splash that these two moves made will not help the Phillies in the place where they were the weakest: the bullpen.

The bullpen was the Phillies’ biggest weakness last season and was one of the main reasons that they lost to the Yankees in the World Series.

Yet for some reason, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. made little effort to improve the bullpen.

Closer Brad Lidge blew 12 saves last year, including Game Four of the World Series. During the season, Lidge insisted that he was healthy enough to pitch, only spending time on the disabled list because of a minor knee problem. It was not until the offseason that Lidge revealed he was pitching through the pain the entire season.

While Lidge had “minor” surgeries on his knee and elbow, there is no guarantee that Lidge pitching through the pain did not have any long-term effects. There is a real chance that Lidge continues to struggle.

Amaro’s solution was signing journeyman reliever Danys Baez. While Baez has had a lot of success in his career as a closer (he has 105 career saves), he hasn’t recorded more than nine saves since 2005, and he has never been the closer for a team that finished with a winning record. It makes you wonder how competent he would be as the Phillies’ full-time closer if Lidge continues to struggle in 2010 for whatever reason.

The other pressing issue for the Phillies is the lack of healthy or proven left-handed relievers available to Charlie Manuel. It is more alarming than the potential issues that the Phillies face at the closer position. 

J.C. Romero is the best lefty in the Phillies’ bullpen. However, Romero is coming off a very disappointing 2009 season that was cut short by an elbow injury in early June, which made the bullpen very thin.

Now, as Opening Day approaches, reports are that Romero has not fully recovered from the elbow injury and will most likely be on the shelf when the season starts. This is especially worrisome since the Phillies did not retain lefty Scott Eyre, who posted a 1.50 ERA last year for the team.

With Romero still recovering from injury and Eyre off the roster, the next best option for Manuel is Antonio Bastardo. While Bastardo pitched well last year, he has very limited experience at the big league level, especially in relief, pitching only two games out of the bullpen.

Bastardo also does not have the type of stuff that you look for out of a left-handed reliever. He relies on his fastball and does not get very many ground ball outs.

The Phillies could be in a lot of trouble if Romero or Bastardo proves to be ineffective. It is a problem that could have been easily rectified by Amaro Jr. this past offseason. He could have made a more concerted effort to retain Eyre or maybe added a free agent reliever. Either would have greatly solidified the Phillies’ bullpen going into the 2010 season.

Obviously, the Phillies’ bullpen could be in a lot worse shape, but that’s not the attitude of a team looking for its third straight appearance in the World Series. It is not going to be very much fun for fans to look back at the offseason and ask what Amaro Jr. could have done to solidify the Phillies’ bullpen.

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Sky Is the Limit for Roy Halladay in the NL

During the better part of the year and a half prior to December 2009, many baseball fans were kept guessing as to whether or not Roy “Doc” Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays would be dealt from the team and where it would be.

For most, it was a question of “when” not “if” arguably the best pitcher in the game would land with a contender sporting a fat wallet.

On Dec. 16th, the speculation ended as the 2003 AL Cy Young Award winner was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in a multi-team trade that also saw former Phillie ace Cliff Lee sent to the Seattle Mariners.  

It was hard to believe that there was actually a player out there worthy of sending 2009 postseason hero Lee packing. But you’d be hard-pressed to find a Phillie fan who had an airtight argument against the deal.

On a team that finished under .500 five of the 11 years since his rookie season, Halladay has averaged 13 wins with 134 strikeouts per year with the Blue Jays. 

While the numbers may seem average upon first look, one must read between the lines.

If there has been one knock on Halladay through the years it has been that he has seemed to be injury prone throughout his whole career. He has missed huge portions of several seasons due to injuries; perhaps the most notable being a broken leg suffered in 2005 after being struck by a hard line drive in early July, ending that campaign.

However, when studying the six seasons in which Halladay started more than 30 games, the numbers jump to an average of 18 wins and 176 strikeouts per season. All of this while pitching in the toughest division in baseball.

Against the odds, facing teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox several times in a season, Halladay has still managed to elevate himself to the status of one of baseball’s elite players.

Now he comes to the National League. The league dubbed by some sports people as the “B-League” of baseball.

We have seen the scary surges of American League players turned National League after two trade deadline deals during the past two years.

Who could forget Manny Ramirez’s domination of the National League West after being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers from the Red Sox in 2008? After hitting .299 with 20 homers and 68 runs batted in in 100 games with the Red Sox, Ramirez’s average rose almost 100 points higher to .396 while nearly equaling his run production at 17 long balls and 53 driven in in only 53 games after moving to LA.

More recently, the previously mentioned Cliff Lee managed to equal his win total in about half as many games with seven in the American League (22 starts) and seven in the National League (12 starts) after being dealt from the Cleveland Indians to Philadelphia at 2009’s deadline.

In addition, Johan Santana, perhaps the only other starting pitcher on Halladay’s level, saw his ERA sink to 2.53 in 2008 with the Mets after it was up at 3.33 the previous season with the Twins.

If history continues to repeat itself, then Roy Halladay’s move to the National League from the American League may not make him scary good, it could make him horrifying good.

Consider that the Philadelphia Phillie lineup is comparable to any of the American League’s top lineups.

It could easily go toe-to-toe with those of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Rangers.

Combine that with the fact that opposing National League lineup’s simply don’t score as much as American League ones do, and Halladay could give baseball one of the best seasons for a starting pitcher that we have seen in decades.

To predict a 30 win season may be going a bit overboard. But what the Phillies could potentially get out of Roy Halladay could go above and beyond whatever we saw from him in Toronto (and he was pretty darn good in Toronto).

26 or 27 wins with a sub-2.00 ERA may not be out of the realm of possibility, bringing to mind the likes of pitchers such as Gibson, Koufax, Carlton, and Blyleven. Seriously.

Despite power numbers being down in recent years, we are still very much in an age of the hitter here in 2010.

However, whether you are a Phillies fan or not (I am not), I strongly encourage you to watch as many Phillie games in which Halladay is pitching as you can this season.

Sorry Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Nats. This trade may very well have given us something that many of us have never seen before.

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Baseball America’s top 20 Prospects: #11 – #15

#11. Dustin Ackley , OF/1B/2B, Mariners

Opening Day Age: 22

ETA: 2011

After hitting over .400 in each of his three years at UNC, Ackley got a six million dollar signing bonus as the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft.

Don’t think the batting average is the only thing he’s got going for him. He also got on base almost 50% of the time, slugged almost .650, walked almost twice as often as he struck out and stole 43 bases at a 75% success rate.

Due to arm problems, including a Tommy John surgery, he only played first base in college.

Normally, a bat like his could play anywhere he wanted, but the Mariners are apparently moving him to second base, and it seems to be going well. At 6’1″, 185 lbs, Ackley’s not the lumbering physical specimen that you would expect from a slugging first baseman with numbers like his.

The Mariners seem to think he had the physical agility to play the keystone in the majors; or more likely, they don’t think he’ll develop the kind of power expected of a first baseman or left fielder.

He played second base in the Arizona Fall League and apparently did well enough, in addition to hitting .315/.414/.425 in 20 games. Everyone hits in the AFL, so take that with a grain of salt, but at least the switch to wooden bats didn’t cripple him. Note that his power output was considerably less, though that was what I said about Buster Posey after last year’s AFL and he turned out OK.

Ackley projects more of a Derek Jeter type, perhaps with less propensity to strike out, with only modest power but with speed, average and patience to more than compensate. I’m always leery of dubbing someone one of the best prospects in baseball before he’s faced any real competition, but if Ackley starts out at High-A ball and progresses as they expect, he could be in the majors by the middle or end of next year.

 

#12. Alcides Escobar , SS, Brewers

Opening Day Age: 23

ETA: 2010

One of several players to repeat on this year’s top 20 (along with Heyward, Posey, Bumgarner, Feliz, Alvarez and Stanton), Alcides is again the only one of the score predominantly here for his glove and not his bat.

Escobar’s defense is very, very good, with incredible range and instincts and a great arm, but he’s also got speed to burn and a decent line-drive type of swing. He doesn’t have much patience or any power and at 6’1″, 155 lbs isn’t likely to develop the latter—but then neither did Ozzie Smith, and he had an OK career.

The future is now for Escobar, who will be the Brewers’ everyday shortstop after they traded JJ hardy away in the offseason.

Because both his range and his speed on the bases depend so much on his speed, he’ll be more susceptible than most to any sort of leg injury, but if he develops as expected, he’s a perennial Gold Glove middle infielder who can hit for a respectable average and steal 30 or more bases.

 

#13. Justin Smoak , 1B, Rangers

Opening Day Age: 23

ETA: Mid-2010

This is the body you expect to see with Dustin Ackley’s numbers, except that Smoak has the numbers too, or at least he did in AA.

After mashing the ball for three years in the SEC, Texas made him the #11 overall pick in the 2008 draft, and he’s moved up quickly through the ranks. Though he hasn’t shown much of the power he had in college, he has shown some, and his body (6’4″, 220) and approach suggest that the homers will come.

He stalled a bit in the second half of last season, after his promotion to AAA, though how much of that was difficulty adjusting to the highest level of the minors (well, short of the National League, anyway) and how much had to do with an oblique strain is anybody’s guess.

Given that he hit nine homers in nine World Cup games in the fall, he’s probably not favoring that oblique anymore, I would say.

 

#14. Madison Bumgarner , LHP, Giants

Opening Day Age: 20

ETA: Mid-2010

After posting a 15-3 record with a 1.46 ERA in Single A as an 18 year old, there was really nowhere for Bumgarner to go but down, statistically speaking. he did, but not very far.

He posted a combined record of 12-2 at High-A and AA with an ERA comfortably under 2.00, but his strikeout rate dropped dramatically, from about 10.4 per nine innings last year to about six per nine this year in AA, before fanning ten batters in ten frames at the major league level.

Most sources seem to agree that the drop in strikeout rate coincided with a drop in velocity, continual over the year, which could be a harbinger of problems.

Indeed, I said in my prospects article last year that his mechanics, particularly the long, sweeping arm action, concerned me, and perhaps this is a sign of a shoulder injury beginning to rear its ugly head. Or, it might just be because he threw too often and too vigorously between starts, as he and the Giants seem to think. That, of course, begs the questions of

A) Why it wasn’t an issue in 2008, if he had the same training regimen, or

B) Why he bothered to change his regimen in 2009, if everything was going so well in 2008.

So far this spring, his velocity is still down a bit , so we have to wait and see. With his control and his long, left handed delivery, he can still be a good starter in the majors, but to be great he’s going to need those extra few mph on the heater.

 

#15. Domonic Brown , OF, Phillies

Opening Day Age: 22

ETA: 2011

Phillies fans, this is the reason that Cliff Lee is no longer on your team.

Well, that’s not precisely true, but essentially GM Ruben Amaro figured that Brown was not enough of a prospect to tide the farm system over without getting a little help. So after practically emptying the cupboards to get Roy Halladay, he sent Lee to Seattle for more prospects, including another toolsy outfielder, Tyson Gillies.

Brown’s big frame had some projecting him for eventual 30-homer major league power, but he’s shown little evidence of that in the minors so far. He did hit 11 homers in 238 at bats at High-A last year, but then smacked only three in almost 150 at bats at AA.

He’s got great speed, but it comes from his long stride rather than quick movement, so he gets caught stealing a little more than you would like. Overall he’s been caught about 28% of the time, though in some stints it’s been as much as 35%, which hurts the team. Not as much as thinking, but still.

His body type and statistical profile remind me a lot of Bernie Williams for some reason, though I think he’s probably got less patience and a better arm. Bernie took a while to develop, and wasn’t really an impact player until age 26 or so, and I see a similar path for Brown.

He’s still working on the patience and power, but all the tools are there for success. Given the Phillies’ crowded major league outfield, he should have time to master both AA and AAA before he gets much exposure in the Show. Best case scenarios have him in the majors in the middle of next year, though I would guess a September 2011 call up is more likely.

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Phillies’ Halladay Sets Tone for Another Winning Season of Baseball

In 1972, the Phillies Hall of Fame pitcher Steve Carlton went 27-10 and won the Cy Young Award on a bad Phillies team.

The team went 59-97, but on every fourth or fifth day when Carlton pitched, the Phillies were a different team and played like champions.

Fast forward to today, as another Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay took the hill against the Atlanta Braves in pre-season action Tuesday night. Halladay pitched three scoreless innings, giving up three hits, striking out five and walking none.

The Phillies won the game, 7-4.

Now this is preseason, but it ain’t 1972.

The Phillies are three-time National League Eastern Division champions, back-to-back National League champions, and have been in the last two World Series.

Their big offseason splash was the trade for Toronto ace Roy Halladay and the departure of another Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee to Seattle.

This Phillies team is loaded, especially on offense and anything less than another NL East crown and a trip to the National League Championship Series would be considered an off season.

Halladay, for one, has not disappointed.

His cut fastball is nasty, approaching the plate like a fastball, only to befuddle the batter as the bottom drops out.

He made Braves’ catcher Brian McCann look like a double-A callup on a curveball that McCann was way out in front of.

Ouch.

The big question to me is what to do with Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth.

Werth’s two-run home run in the second inning should be a sign of what could be a monster season.

Domonic Brown is hitting .412 this preseason and John Mayberry Jr. hit a two-run single in the sixth to break the game open, 7-4.

Brown’s progression in particular could spell the fate of Werth, who could be playing out the final year of his contract.

If Werth has a monster first couple of months this season, the Phillies would have to make a serious offer to re-sign him for at least three years.

The All-Star break will be too late.

Werth turns 31 in May and three years might be too much for the Phils to commit to long term.

Werth, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, and newcomer Placido Polanco will pace the offense.

Roy Halladay will set the pace for the pitching staff.

The Braves, Nationals, and Mets all made off-season moves to strengthen their clubs.

The Marlins did little, but kept a young and talented nucleus intact.

Last night’s win against the Braves was great to watch on MLB Network and felt awfully familiar to Phils’ fans: take an early lead, fall behind by a run or two, then in the last four frames crack the game open and win going away.

Injury, luck, fading and rising stars always play a part in any baseball season.

It should be a fun ride for Phillies fans. Get your popcorn …

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