The Ryan Howard Contract Extension: Feast or Famine For The Phillies?

On Monday, the Philadelphia Phillies announced that they had signed first basemen Ryan Howard to a $125 million, five-year contract extension. The deal includes a sixth year club option, that could potentially keep him in Philadelphia until 2017. 

Ryan Howard will be paid $20 million in 2012 and 2013, $25 million from 2014 to 2016, and the club option is for $23 million with a $10 million buyout. 

That, my friends, is a lot of money.

Immediately after this deal was released, fans, pundits, analysts, scouts, and statisticians took to the web, and took to the airwaves to dissect this deal. 

The response was both incredibly passionate and incredibly polarized. 

As usual in baseball, the key difference in opinion seemed to be between scouts and sabermetricians.

This dynamic in baseball has been overplayed and stereotyped since the publishing of Moneyball, but the Ryan Howard deal seems to have brought the argument volume to full pitch (pardon the pun).

Casual fans and old-school baseball people love this deal. 

The deal keeps Ryan Howard in a Phillies uniform for years to come. It keeps his powerful bat in the heart of the Phillies lineup and it keeps Ryan Howard in Philadelphia where he is beloved and is a significant part of the community. 

Statisticians and sabermetric analysts hate this deal. 

The Phillies wildly overpaid an overrated baseball player. Not only that, but they are giving a significant raise to a player whose skill-set will drastically decline throughout the remainder of the deal. 

Now, in full disclosure, I am not a statistician. I took an Statistics In Economics course my freshman year of college, with a teacher who showed almost no signs of life unless he was regaling you with the story of his first visit to Carnegie Hall.

Nor am I a baseball scout. In fact, I have never even played competitive baseball.

But I am a devoted follower of the Philadelphia Phillies, have done my research, and fancy myself knowledgeable of the MLB.

From this, I have concluded that a true verdict of this contract lies somewhere between those two poles.

Here’s why.

Ryan Howard is a great baseball player. He is not the best player on the team, that honor belongs to Chase Utley. Nor is he the teams flashiest player, that honor(?) belongs to Jimmy Rollins. 

But he is a very good player.

He has hit over 40 home runs and batted in over 130 runs every year since 2006. He has been a valuable component of the Phillies post-season qualification in 2007, their World Series victory in 2008, and their National League pennant in 2009.

Sure, he strikes a lot, but their are only a few teams in the MLB that would not be happy with Ryan Howard as their first basemen. 

But Ryan Howard has his flaws.

Ryan Howard strikes out with great frequency (he led the league with 199 strikeouts in 2007 and has topped 180 every year since 2006). 

Ryan Howard does not a play a premium defensive position, and he does not seem to play that position very well. 

Hard hitting baseball bashers that strike out a lot and play poor defense are very common in baseball, but they are rarely regarded as premium players. 

Ryan Howard is a very good baseball player that is now earning an elite baseball salary. 

Over the course of his contract, Howard’s guaranteed salary per year will be more than any other baseball player except for Alex Rodriguez. 

This is where the extension begins to look foolish. 

In my opinion, one of the most important sabermetric hitting statistics is Weighted On Base Average. Weighted On Base Average provides a weighted combination of On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage. Essentially it measures a players ability to get on base and create runs.

In 2009, Ryan Howard’s wOBA was .393, good enough for 10th in the MLB among first basemen. 

UZR is a statistic that attempts to show the value that a player has defensively.

In 2009, Ryan Howard’s UZR was 2.0, good enough for 8th in the MLB among first basemen. Interestingly enough, defense is the only quality where advanced statistics prove Howard to be more valuable than the common perception. 

Although this is only a very basic overview of Howard’s statistical value, it gives the notion that Howard is merely a pretty good first basemen. 

But you cannot judge this contract solely on a statistical basis. 

Ryan Howard has provided rare talent since he graduated to the big leagues. He has hit a ton of home runs, a ton of RBI’s and played pretty good defense. 

He may struggle against left-handed pitching, continue to flail away at breaking balls, and strike out too often, but more importantly he has been more than willing to address these flaws.

Over the past two years, he has lost over 30 pounds in order to increase his agility and improve his defense, which he has. 

He has shifted his stance, shortened his swing, and is working on improving his pitch identification. 

He has done everything that Phillies have asked of him, and more, while managing to thrive in one of the nations toughest sports towns. 

He has been a fundamental aspect of the Phillies organizational renaissance on the baseball diamond and off. He brings fans to the seats and sells merchandise. 

He has allowed the Phillies to begin acting like the big-market organization that they have always had the potential to be.

It is precisely this organizational growth that is reflected in this contract.

This is a classic big-market oversigning, the kind of signing you see from the Yankees.

These signings are not always a bad thing however.

Alex Rodriguez and Mark Texeira were two incredibly important parts of the Yankee’s World Series victory last year, and will continue to be productive players for years to come. But do you really think  that Rodriguez and Texeira will be performing up to the $20 and $21 million they will be earning in the last year of their contracts, when they are ages 42 and 37, respectively?

Most likely, no.

Ryan Howard has helped turn the Phillies into the type of organization that can make these deals.

Small market teams have to operate in the way that is most economically efficient in the long term, all the time.

Big market teams can overspend in the future to get the most that they can in the present.

This contract is not a tremendous bargain for the Phillies, but I do not think that it will be the type of contract that cripples a franchise.

The Phillies were right to give Howard a contract that locks him up for what is left of his prime.

Just not for this amount of money, or this many years.  

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Big Money, Big Problem: Why the Ryan Howard Contract Was a Bad Idea

If you look up powerhouse in the dictionary, chances are a picture of Ryan Howard won’t be too far away.

If you look up all-or-nothing on google, chances are Ryan Howard’s picture will quickly appear on your screen.

It’s no secret that Ryan Howard drives in runs like they’re going out of style.

It’s also no secret that he comes up empty more often than any other big league hitter.

As the later portions of Ryan Howard’s new five year, $125 million contract near, the latter will likely overtake the former.

Ryan Howard is a big boy, to say the least.

As the years go by big boys like Ryan Howard age in dog years.

Before you know it he’ll be a liability in the field.

Next you’ll see a huge dip in average for baseball’s most powerful player.

Soon after that his power will take a dip below the norm, dropping him to 20-25 bombs a season.

All of this could happen to Howard within a period of three years. And it could come without warning.

I doubt this would go over well in the city that booed Santa Claus.

In my opinion at least, Ryan Howard was already overrated as it is. Sure, he can hit homers at will, but if I had a dollar for every time he struck out since 2005 I might have enough money to rival Howard’s new contract.

If the Phillies were an American League team this deal wouldn’t bother me as much, but that’s not the case.

I just can’t imagine Howard playing the field much longer without being a liability to his team.

In my mind Ryan Howard is very similar to David Ortiz.

Both of them got a late start.

Howard was blocked by Jim Thome in the Phillies organization until his 25th birthday.

Ortiz didn’t decide to show us that he was Alex Rodriguez‘s little brother until he signed with the Red Sox at the age of 27.

They both peaked right away, and they peaked high.

Ortiz hit 31, 41, 47, and 57 homers in consecutive seasons.

Howard hit 58, 47, 48, and 45 homers in consecutive seasons.

However, much like his peak, Ortiz declined fast and unexpectedly. That decline started around the age of 32 for Ortiz, which is when I expect it to happen to Howard.

Howard has already shown that he hits lefties about as well as Charles Barkley hits golf balls (okay maybe not that bad). Can you say PLATOON?

Because in a few years you might have to.

We’ve all seen it a few million times. When will teams learn that hit-or-miss power hitters like Ryan Howard don’t last?

Still don’t want to take my word for it?

Why don’t you ask Mo Vaughn, Jack Cust, or Richie Sexson how quickly they lost it?

Ryan Howard is a great power talent, but he’s no messiah.

So why is he being paid like one?

In about three years The City of Brotherly Love certainly won’t be in love with what they’re getting out of their $20 million man, I guarantee it.

 

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Ryan Howard: Phillies’ $125M Deal With Howard Makes Lots of Cents

Hours before the Philadelphia Phillies failed to make the necessary plays in a 5-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants, they made one huge play off the field.

The Phillies announced they had locked up slugger Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million contract extension that could keep the All-Star first baseman in Philadelphia through 2017.

The contract runs through 2016, with a club option for 2017 that could raise the value of the deal to $138 million.

The extension makes Howard, who will average $25 million per year, the second wealthiest player in baseball, just behind Yankee third baseman, Alex Rodriguez, who makes $27.5 million in a 10-year deal that runs through 2017.

Howard has been a model of consistency since becoming an everyday player in 2005. He has averaged 49 home runs and 143 RBI over the past four years.

As much as Howard has been a fan favorite, things have not gone as well on the contract front, until now.

In 2008, Howard made $10 million in arbitration when the Phillies were offering $7 million.

Howard avoided arbitration last year when he signed a three-year, $54 million contract extension.

It is clear that the Phillies and Howard, through his agent Casey Close, have remained in contract talks throughout the offseason, as quoted in the Philly.com .

“I knew I wanted to stay in Philly,” said Howard, whose new deal will begin in 2012, after his current 3-year extension expires. “I’ve grown so accustomed to the fans—it’s a special relationship with the fans—and just with what the organization has done. This is the organization that gave me an opportunity to make it in the big leagues, so for me, wanting to stay in Philly, that wasn’t a very hard decision.”

In economic terms, today’s dollar is more advantageous than tomorrow’s dollar. Howard would have cost more if both sides waited until the end of the 2011 season.

Also, according to baseball insider Jim Salisbury, sluggers Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez would become free agents after the 2011 season.

Now Pujols, Fielder and Gonzalez will base their salaries on Howard’s numbers, not the other way around. It would have been a crowded field of free agents in 2011 if the four sluggers were each seeking deep pocket suitors.

Howard’s signing could trigger more multi-year contracts among the remaining three.

Could you imagine: If Howard made $10 million in arbitration in 2008, what he would have made in the next two years?

It was smart to lock him up.

Howard’s two- to four-week stretch in the 2007 race for the NL East crown was incredible. Howard, like most power hitters, is streaky. He proved himself a leader again in the NLDS against Colorado.

His power numbers are not up yet, but he is hitting .265 with three home runs and 16 RBI.

He has shown up in camp the last two seasons in tremendous shape. I also notice him getting base hits to left field now, which in certain situations, will make the defensive power shift a deficiency.

Sign Howard, lock up Shane Victorino, lock up Roy Halladay until 2013, and trade Cliff Lee.

What about Jayson Werth, who had 36 home runs and 99 RBI last year?

That situation will work itself out, both sides have stated.

Who is in the core stock of players for the Phillies, and who is out?

For now, the Howard deal made a lot of sense.

 

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Ryan Howard Is Now Second Only To Alex Rodriguez?

Ryan Howard, arguably the face of the Philadelphia Phillies franchise, is now—on average—the second highest-paid player in the MLB, next to New York Yankees third baseman and arguably the game’s greatest, Alex Rodriguez.

Is Howard worth a guaranteed $25 million a season?

The numbers suggest yes.

Since 2005, Howard has led the MLB in home runs (222) and RBIs (650). According to mlb.com, Howard is one of only four players in history with four consecutive 40 home run and 130 RBI seasons, a group that includes Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr., and Sammy Sosa.

Howard’s contract now extends through to the 2017 season.  n plain English, five years, $125 million with a club option for a sixth that can elevate the contract to $138 million.

It will be interesting to see if after another five years Howard is still hitting at this record pace, or if the Phillies jumped the gun.

But isn’t that what makes this game great?!

Just to throw this out there, how much is Albert Pujols worth now?

Find this article on The GM’s Perspective

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Philadelphia Phillies: Band-Aids®, Boo-Boos, and Uh-Ohs

 

This morning I chased a rogue eyebrow hair for 46 tries. Then I opened the patio door and threw my cheap tweezers as far into the woods as I could. Now I know why people pay $10 for a pair of tweezers. Nothing is more frustrating than something getting the best of you.

Ask little Davey Herndon.

Herndon was stellar from the bullpen this season until that fateful April 16th against the Marlins. His 96 mph sinker was hit on the ground—just like it was supposed to be—except that day they hit ‘em where nobody was: five times in less than an inning. The misfortune earned him his first ERA of the season: 7.71.

Then he got it together for a few outings until the strike zone mysteriously shrunk in the eighth inning of the 8-6 loss to the Diamondbacks in the final game of the series. That tragic evening gave him his first loss of the season.

But his problems aren’t Rich Dubee’s only plight. Cole Hamels continues to “mature,” JC Romero is taking his time defining his post-supplement self, JA Happ lent his inconsistency to Kyle Kendrick when he replaced him in the rotation, and Brad Lidge and Joe Blanton are still playing house in the minors.

It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re praying Jamie Moyer doesn’t get hurt.

At this pace, the obscure names in the bullpen will become household names. An already overtaxed bullpen is the result of early season hiccups in the rotation.

Well, except for one piece of it—that $10 pair of tweezers, Roy Halladay. I can sum up his usefulness in three words: I’d do him.

Ruben Amaro Jr. has to be wondering if he should’ve splurged on a guaranteed way to pluck out more batters with, let’s say, Cliff Lee.

Okay, that’s the last I’ll whine about it. But it’s no comfort knowing those hairs will continue to grow where I don’t want them long after I’m dead.

Now that’s a pretty picture.

I think the problem lies with three guys: Kyle Kendrick, Ryan Madson, and Cole Hamels. I call them the Three Trees. They’re a forest of talent but they’ve yet to discover their 2010 wood. If I have to, I’ll summon my x-ray vision and find it for them because I know somewhere in there are the balls to do the job. I just wish they’d use ‘em. God knows, I wood.

Don’t look at me that way. I’m not the first to use wood in a double entendre—I’m not the first to even dream about a double entendre. And I don’t even know how that would go. I guess it depends on who’s on top. Is that what that tea bagging thing is all about?

Hey, they don’t call the biggest club in the bag a wood for nothing.

Kendrick showed cahonas in Spring Training, and Hamels had girls wearing his name to bed in 2008. But Ryan Madson is trying to walk in the shadow of Brad Lidge. The problem is, we never know if Lidge will appear as an oak or a pussy willow.

The pitching staff isn’t the only ailment. The stamina of the roster is questionable. Placido Polanco has a boo-boo on his elbow, Greg Dobbs wears a Band-Aid^® on his calf, and now Juan Castro, who replaced the disabled Jimmy Rollins, has been swapped because of a hammie for Wilson Valdez—the guy we thought was brought up to start at shortstop in the first place.

Charlie wanted to get his bench players game time but I’m sure he hadn’t planned to spend this much time in the dugout with his starters.

Now he knows how Jerry Manuel felt last year.

Then there’s Raul Ibanez. His slow season start could be attributed to the time it took to recoup his shape after his surgery. But I think he’s suffering from what I call “The Placido Effect.” It’s when the new guy comes to town and steals your thunder. Either Raul needs to find the perfect prescription or he’ll have to down a sugar packet or two.

Or maybe they just need something to rub off on them. And not my neighbor’s dog. Perhaps the team should summon some luck from that toothless lotto winner.

Actually the whole toothless thing isn’t indicative of the Philly crowd. You have to go into western PA to find petrified tubes of Crest at the CVS. Philly fans have more class than that. They’re known for displaying signs with the number of hot dogs they’ve eaten on Dollar Dog Night and then puking up on their neighbors.

Good times.

All joking aside, the Phillies deserve better fans than that. They’re vying for their third straight trip to the Series and there’s a bunch of games left to get there.

Let’s show some real class.

See you at the ballpark.

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Philidelphia Phillies Lock Up Ryan Howard Through 2016

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Ryan Howard will remain with the club through the 2016 season after agreeing to a five year contract extension on Monday worth $125 million.

Howard’s new contract includes standard award bonuses and grants him with the right to name a small list of teams that the Phillies could potentially trade him to. In addition, Howard will have full trade-veto rights in May 2015.

The former National League Most Valuable Player is one of only four players to hit 40 home runs and have over 130 RBIs in four consecutive seasons. The contract extension will make Howard the second highest paid player in the major leagues behind Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees with an average salary of $25 million a year.

Howard has 225 career home runs in 750 appearances and is hitting .275 with three home runs and 16 RBIs. 

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Philadelphia Phillies Should Resign Jayson Werth Quickly

Last evening, Jayson Werth put on a “Baseball Tonight” highlight reel in leading the Phillies to a 3-2 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Watching him continue to evolve as one of baseball’s brightest all-around stars argues that the Phillies should sign him to a contract extension right now. 

 

As he often does, Werth displayed his multi-dimensional talents in the desert. With one out in the second inning, the bearded right-fielder with the flowing hair crushed a pitch off starter Ian Kennedy that traveled 448 feet to stake the Phils to a 1-0 lead.

 

In the middle innings, Werth contributed with a couple excellent plays in right field. And, he capped things off by hitting a two out, ninth-inning bomb to dead center to provide the margin of victory. 

 

Werth has swung the bat well since opening day and has mounted some impressive numbers. He currently is batting .333 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. Perhaps even more representative of his well rounded contributions are his .408 on base and .633 slugging percentages.

 

The 2010 success comes on the heels of his maturation into an everyday All-Star right fielder. Since joining the team in 2007, Werth has batted .278 with an .878 OPS. His home run output continues to grow with a career high 36 a year ago and a trajectory that might take him to the 40 plateau very soon. And, did I mention 47 steals in 53 attempts?

 

Last winter, the Phillies wisely inked him to a two-year contract extension to avoid arbitration that pays him $7 million in 2010. When the current contract expires, though, Werth will become a free agent.

 

As the season wears on, the price tag will continue to rise as Werth further validates his capabilities with another big season. The five-tool player has already turned heads by ramping up his performance over the past two postseason runs to the Fall Classic, jacking 11 HR to go with a .393 on base percentage in 29 games.

 

Every bomb, every “reckless abandon” race around the base paths, every laser throw to nail a runner at the plate, and every diving catch in the outfield that lands on “Sports Center” will only serve to whet prospective teams’ appetites for his services.

 

Hitting in the important five hole protecting Ryan Howard, Werth’s growing reputation as one of the league’s most dangerous hitters serves to mitigate opposing pitchers working around the slugging first baseman. It truly is a symbiotic relationship— as Werth’s numbers go up, so do Howard’s.  

 

Ruben Amaro and the Phillies have already pushed the payroll to a level beyond their wildest imaginations just a couple years ago. Dealing Cliff Lee and letting Chan Ho Park walk over the winter serves as testimony that the team is feeling the need to control the payroll. 

 

With the team’s star-studded roster, Amaro has acknowledged that he will be forced to make some tough decisions down the road. He has made it clear that he does not have the open checkbook to operate like the Yankees or Red Sox, so some decisions will be about finances over talent.

 

On the flip side, the Phillies are looking at the possibility of selling out all 81 home games. Additionally, they hope to make a third consecutive World Series run, which could push total attendance towards a staggering 4.2 million fans—not to mention record revenues.

 

It is also worth mentioning that Werth’s stature as a fan favorite is ever increasing. Like middle of the order sluggers, retaining beloved talent and revenues are also a symbiotic relationship. Simply put—fans come out to see exciting players win games. 

 

Many have compared Werth to Jason Bay, who signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the rival New York Mets this winter. In terms of numbers, the comparison is solid, though the Phillies’ Jayson is better defensively and on the base paths. Conversely, Bay has validated his skills over a greater period of time.

 

Werth has made it clear that he loves everything about Philly from his teammates to the ball park to the fans to the city itself. Although it would be unrealistic to think that he will forgo such an important opportunity to monetize the unique intersection between his prime years and free agency, he might be willing to strike a balance. 

 

Surely the signs are that a bit of a hometown discount is in order here. However, the size of that break will probably shrink as the year wears on and perhaps disappear when he hits the open market.

 

Whether it’s four years, $64 million or something less— the Phillies should do whatever it takes to make Jayson Werth a fixture in right for the next four-five seasons. He plays hard, plays to win, is a great teammate, and possesses the type of multi-dimensional talent that suggest his best days are still ahead. 

 

If that requires shedding payroll or raising ticket prices a dollar or two, so be it. 

 

Although I like his work ethic and contributions, if it means moving Raul Ibanez to clear payroll, the team needs to do it during or after the season. A Ben Francisco platoon with Greg Dobbs would hold down the fort. Even better would be to allow prized prospect Dominic Brown to mature in a part-time role facing mostly righties. 

 

In the offseason, opinions floated around to trade the right fielder before he hits the market because Brown is on the way. I buy into the latter—but rather along side Werth and instead replacing the 38-year old Ibanez. 

 

The time is now for Amaro and the Phillies to make a bold move to keep Werth in the fold. If not, every highlight generated by their exciting, young star throughout the season will be mixed with the ambivalence of knowing the price keeps edging up.

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Phillies-Braves: Philadelphia Starters Key Series Win Over Atlanta

The Atlanta Braves media, team, and fans were absolutely giddy over Tuesday’s dramatic come-from-behind 4-3 win in the opener of the three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution story during the series compared the arrival of rookie sensation Jason Heyward to that of when Earvin “Magic” Johnson joined the Lakers.

Whatever.

Atlanta writers were singing a different song following Roy Halladay’s 2-0 shutout of the Braves on Wednesday, show courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

One writer pointed out that the Braves’ pitching will keep them afloat, but the holes in the batting order could sink the vessel.

He also said that counting starting pitcher Derek Lowe, the Braves started five men Thursday hitting .200 or less. They entered the game batting .227 as a team, second-worst in the National League.

The Braves are a good team. They are most likely to challenge the Phillies this season for the National League East division title.

But let’s get real: The Phillies took two out of three from the Braves and got good starting pitching in the process.

Kyle Kendrick went eight shutout innings on Tuesday, Halladay pitched a complete game, and ageless Jamie Moyer pitched six innings, giving up two unearned runs.

The injury bug continued to bite the Phillies, as they placed starter J.A. Happ on the 15-day disabled list.

Reliever J.C. Romero was activated for Thursday’s game, and Joe Blanton should make it back, hopefully for the San Francisco series or at month’s end at home against the Mets.

It was a good start to an important road trip that will take the Phillies to Arizona and San Francisco before heading home to face the Mets. The first game of the Mets series closes out April.

At 10-5 with a 1.5-game lead over Florida and a two-game lead over Atlanta, if the Phillies continue to win series at a 2-of-3 clip, that is .667 ball.

The Phillies pounded out 12 hits in Thursday’s win.

Tonight’s opener pits Cole Hamels (2-1, 3.86 ERA) and Kris Benson (0-1, 3.00) at 9:40 p.m. EST.

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Is It Too Early To Give Roy Halladay the NL Cy Young Award?

When you think of top pitchers in the game, names like C.C. Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, and Johan Santana come up.

Nowhere in the discussion does Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay come up…except with Phillies fans.

However, after what we’ve seen from Halladay in the first four games of the 2010 season, is it too early to give him the NL Cy Young Award?

Philadelphia fans would be happy for Major League Baseball to go ahead and do this, while others would be hesitant, especially San Francisco Giants and New York Mets fans.

The first reason is simply looking at Halladay’s statistics through the first four games of the season. Sure, you can’t expect him to keep up this pace through the rest of the season, but his numbers simply speak for themselves over the course of his career.

This year, he has a 4-0 record, has recorded 28 strikeouts, walked three batters, and given up three earned runs, and has a measly 0.82 ERA.

Now, there are those who will say, “The Phillies haven’t played anyone to start the season.”

Actually, they have. The only team Halladay has pitched against that doesn’t have a winning record is the Houston Astros. Florida, Atlanta, and yes, even Washington all are above .500.

The second reason why Halladay should just go ahead and be named the NL Cy Young is the video evidence. Just look at the way he carries himself during every pitch. Whether he’s down 3-0 in the count or is up 0-2, Halladay always feels like he can get the out. There’s no nervousness or stress coming from the mound. He goes out there and simply does what he’s done for the last 12 years.

The final reason to go ahead and give Halladay the award is because the Phillies have, without a doubt, the best offense in the National League. That alone will allow Halladay to be successful on the mound.

Each night out, the Phillies will give their ace a chance to pitch with a lead. When you give an ace like Halladay a lead with which to pitch, he’s going to be very hard to beat.

Now, will Halladay be named the Cy Young winner at the end of the year?

Only time will tell.

But if the season continues to go the way it has, then you could likely see the first 25-game winner since Bob Welch did it in 1990. That alone should win Halladay the NL Cy Young award, if nothing else.

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Braves Stun Phils with Improbable Comeback Win

Just call him Nate McClutch.

The Braves center fielder, who was hitting a mere .138 with just one RBI all season, sure picked a good time to break out of his slump.

McLouth hit a leadoff 10th-inning solo blast against Jose Contreras to cap Atlanta’s stunning comeback 4-3 win over division rival Philadelphia.

The Braves have now won five of their last six games and find themselves in a first-place tie with the Phillies atop the National League East standings.

For McLouth, his heroics couldn’t have come at a better time.

This is the first walk-off home run he’s recorded at any level of ball he’s played in, from Little League up to the Majors.

McLouth got a chance to be a hero in the 10th thanks to back-to-back two-out homers from Troy Glaus and Jason Heyward in the bottom of the ninth.

The Braves may have enjoyed other improbable comeback wins in the past, but this stunning turnaround is one of the most unpredictable and character-building victories in team history.

For 8 2/3 innings, Atlanta only managed four hits and was an out away from being shut out.

Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick, who was sporting an ugly 17.47 ERA this season, put the Braves offense on the defensive.

This isn’t the first time struggling pitchers have faced the Braves lineup and left the game looking like Cy Young.

The difference now is that this team didn’t fold.

Kendrick handed the ball to Ryan Madson in the ninth, who is filling in for the injured Brad Lidge at closer, and suddenly the Braves found new life.

Madson walked Chipper Jones with one out in the ninth and then retired Brian McCann, which brought Troy Glaus to the plate.

The Braves fans’ new whipping boy, who again was the target of the hometown faithful’s wrath after committing a costly error earlier the game, couldn’t possibly come through with two outs.

Could he?

He did.

Glaus smashed a two-run blast, sending a jolt through Turner Field and giving the Braves a sliver of hope.

While still down a run, the Braves turned to their No. 6 hitter in the lineup to keep the game alive.

On a normal night, that would be Yunel Escobar.

But, not on this night.

No, on this night, Bobby Cox adhered to the ongoing chatter of moving rookie stud Jason Heyward up from the seventh spot in the lineup.

So, there he was, “Joltin’ Jason” as some are now calling him, with a chance to tie the game, again.

If you remember, Heyward was the hero in Sunday’s come-from-behind win over the Rockies with a two-out, bases loaded single in the ninth.

No way he does it again, does he?

He does.

Heyward’s shot heard ’round the world tied the game and made Cox look like a managerial genius again.

From there, pandemonium ensued.

Jason Heyward found himself in the middle of two unlikely heroes.

Who would have thought Troy Glaus and Nate McLouth would deliver late-inning home runs, when they’ve been the subject of boos and ridicule all season long?

And, with each passing day, the legend that is the “J-Hey Kid” grows even larger.

For two straight games, the 20-year-old sensation has helped usher the Braves to back-to-back comeback victories.

He leads all major league rookies in home runs (four) and RBI (16) by a large margin.

But, Heyward’s impact on the Braves is not just all in the numbers.

The electricity that he’s brought to the table has lit a fire under the entire team and has them playing the most inspired and exciting baseball since, well, 1991.

Yes, the year the Braves went from worst-to-first in their division and came within one win of being crowned World Champions.

That year began the rich, glory days of excellence that Atlanta had then enjoyed for 14 consecutive seasons.

But, that competitiveness and winning attitude that has been missing since 2006, appears to finally be resurfacing.

As I said yesterday, the Phillies know all too well what a young, rising superstar can bring to the clubhouse.

What Howard did for the Phillies when he came on the scene in 2005 is what Heyward is doing for the Braves in 2010.

Howard began a new era of winning baseball in Philadelphia.

And, now it seems Heyward is bringing that mantra back to Atlanta.

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