Roy Halladay Brilliant in Phillies Debut, but Can Cole Hamels Follow Suit?

On April 4, the National League got its first taste of what the American League has had to deal with for much of the last decade.

Although I certainly do not play for the Washington Nationals, I think I can make a safe assumption about what their first impression was.

Damn, Roy Halladay is good.

Two days ago, he made his Opening Day debut for the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Nationals were his first victim There was a festive attitude at the ballpark before the game, and even the Nationals fans (who seemed to be outnumbered at the stadium) were full of hope.

What followed was an 11-1 drubbing that would have even the most optimistic fans feeling sour.

The game began with a fairly pedestrian first inning that had Halladay looking surprisingly human. He gave up a walk, allowed some hits, and let a run score.

I hope the Nationals enjoyed it because what followed was six innings of total domination. Halladay was in complete control, and his poise on the mound was just as intimidating as his pitches.

His fastball was clocked from 91 to 95 miles per hour, which is difficult enough to deal with it before it makes that signature cut that shatters so many bats. The slider just taunted the hitters, coming in hot before slicing out of the strike zone, like an express train that at the last minute decides on a change of destination.

The curveball was a mirage—at one second appearing to be coming directly at the hitter’s head before diving into the corners. He also threw a few changeups just for good measure.

But this isn’t the American League anymore, and pitchers are required to “participate” on the offensive end, in most cases standing at the plate, making a few foolish hacks before sitting down again. Halladay apparently didn’t get the memo because he also registered his first hit and RBI of the season.

His debut was not perfect, but with the Phillies‘ offense locked in, he hardly needed to be.

Alas, Opening Day is only one game, and unless Halladay is more iRobot than mere mortal, he cannot start every game.

Enter Cole Hamels.

The former World Series MVP makes his season debut tonight and is ready to start the chapter on a new season. Following a 2009 campaign that disappointed both him and the majority of the Philadelphia area, Hamels is ready to go.

He showed up for spring training with his arm in much better shape and has been honing his curveball and tinkering with a cutter. The early season reviews have raved about his preparation and focus so far.

However, that is meaningless until he proves that he can get it all back together when it counts.

Tonight, he gets that chance.

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Phillies Show on Opening Day, Lineup Is Offensive

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies team hit 10 home runs more than the year before and scored 21 more runs and had 26 more RBI.

The offense led the team to its second straight National League pennant. They fell short in six games to the New York Yankees, but heck, Chase Utley tied Reggie Jackson’s record of five home runs in a single World Series.

You ain’t seen nothing, yet.

Monday’s 11-1 thrashing of the Washington Nationals on Opening Day was no mirage.

Sure the team will go into funks, but no more five runs in five days.

Batting Placido Planaco second and Shane Victorino seventh paid big dividends. Palanco went 3-5 with six RBI and Victorino was 1-5 with an RBI and run scored. The big man, Ryan Howard hit a two-run bomb in the fourth inning.

Sure, this was not the Yankees the Phils were playing.

The Yankees marched to a World Series championship in 2009. In the process, they scored 915 runs, hit 224 home runs and 881 RBI.

The Phillies scored 820 runs, hit 224 home runs, and were first in doubles with 312.

Four players had 30 or more home runs: Howard 45, Jayson Werth 36, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley hit 31. Howard hit 145 RBI, Werth 99, Utley 93 and Ibanez 93.

Fewer runs than the Yankees but the same amount of home runs. And the American League has the designated hitter.

Shazam.

Polanco hit .285 and only struck out 46 times for the Tigers last year. A hitter for average who does not strike out a lot.

I have to admit I wanted Chone Figgins as the Phillies third baseman. Lots of stolen bases.

But Polanco fits this team.

A team full of strikeouts and prolonged to long scoreless slumps.

No more.

Watch out National League.

Ain’t no stopping us now.

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Five Notes To Make of the Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Day Victory

A tradition of Opening Day disappointment for the Philadelphia Phillies was nowhere to be found as perennial ace Roy Halladay took to the mound against the Washington Nationals Monday.

The former Cy Young Award winner dominated the lowly Nationals for most of the outing, with his only rough patch coming in the first inning. He allowed his only run in the first inning, then proceeded to throw six scoreless innings.

When it was all said and done for Doc Halladay, he had gone a strong seven innings, allowing one earned run while striking out nine. The newly acquired workhouse was only half of the show today, though, as the offense took no time in getting into mid-season form.

John Lannan kept the Phillies’ sluggers of the board for three innings, but the game changed with one powerful swing in the fourth when Ryan Howard took him deep. It was a two-run shot that put the Phils up for good. They went on to plate three more runs in the inning, putting up a five sport for the inning.

They struck again in the top of the sixth when Jimmy Rollins tripled, scoring Carlos Ruiz. Rollins then scored on Placido Polanco’s RBI single.

Polanco did the bulk of his damage, however, in the very next inning. With two outs and the bases loaded, Polanco crushed the Jason Bergmann delivery into the Phillies’ bullpen just beyond the left field wall for a grand slam, giving his team the 11-1 lead.

The score stood still for the remainder of the game as the Phils halted their Opening Day losing streak at four.

Granted, this was the Washington Nationals whom they were facing, but the Philadelphia Phillies opened their 2010 in impressive fashion. Here’s five few things to take away from today’s game.

 

1. Roy Halladay is exactly what we were told he would be

One start is in the books for Halladay, and boy was it impressive. Pardon the first inning and the 32-year-old righty made the Nationals looked like a minor-league squad (well, more so than they already do).

No, it wasn’t exactly a lights-out, stellar performance; but it was as close as you can get. No Phillies’ fan can be disappointed with their new ace’s debut. Hopefully, Doc will be able to keep this up for the remainder of the season. There’s little reason to believe he won’t.

 

2. Placido Polanco fits in this lineup

Some analysts and fans alike questioned Charlie Manuel’s decision to move Polanco to the second spot in the order and place Shane Victorino in the seven hole. For at least today, the Skipper looks to have made the right call, yet again.

While grand slams and six RBIs shouldn’t be expected on a day-to-day basis, the team’s new third basemen showed he can hit second in this lineup. Even once Polanco plays down more to his role of getting on base and playing small ball, his contribution at that position shouldn’t drop off too much.

 

3. The Phillies’ offense is still much like last year’s

In 2009 with the Phils’ offense, when it rained it poured. This was the case again this afternoon as the team exploded for innings of five, two and four runs on the day.

With the lineup having primarily stayed the same, except for the upgrade from Feliz to Polanco, we shouldn’t be too surprised with today’s efforts. Granted, 11 runs can’t be expected every day. But at least we now know this team can still deliver those haymakers that knock opposing teams out of games.

 

4. The Nationals…yeah, they’re still the Nationals

The Nats are a young, semi-talented squad who has improved from a year ago. While it may not have seemed so from today, their pitching is better than it was in ’09. Yet, today showed us they are still the bottom-feeders of the National League East.

They have time to correct a few problems and make themselves better, but it’s hard to see them going anywhere in 2010.

 

5. The Phillies…yeah, they’re still the Phillies—just an ace better.

The offense is back from a year ago, the bullpen didn’t give up a run in two innings of work, and they finally have a powerful Opening Day ace. And may I add, the best ace in the business.

Halladay and the offense reassured fans on this day that they won’t disappoint in 2010. Fresh off their second straight World Series appearance, the team showed they’re still hungry for more. That’s what we love to see.

 

Let us not forget, this is just one game. Had we been in the dog days of summer, halfway through the season, very little analysis would be made on the game. Yet this is Opening Day, when first impressions for the season ahead are made. We have to analyze something now, don’t we?

For the Phillies on this day, they made a few positive first impressions. But let’s see how the next 20 games or so go before me start making some more serious conclusions for the year ahead.

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Philadelphia Phillies Win Season Opener By Crushing the Nationals 11-1

Ryan Howard got his 2010 season off to a quick start, but his performance was not the highlight of the afternoon.

Besides President Barack Obama’s unimpressive high and wide throw to start the season off, the most impressive part of the game was newly acquired pitcher Roy Halladay beginning his National League career with nine strikeouts in seven innings, giving the Phillies a 11-1 win.

Halladay gave up six hits and one run in seven innings, including a double to Ryan Zimmerman who brought home the lone run.

Ryan Howard hit a home run into deep right in the top of the fourth to bring home Chase Utley and end the Phillies drought, putting them up 2-1.

That would not be all they would get in the fourth.

Washington pitcher John Lannan would give up another three runs in the same inning before being relieved by Jesse English.

Roy Halladay, Shane Victorino, and Placido Polanco all recorded an RBI and brought the score to 5-1 at the end of the inning.

In the sixth, Jimmy Rollins tripled to deep center to set up Polanco for another RBI, giving the Phillies a 7-1 lead.

Polanco’s day wouldn’t end there.

In the seventh inning with the bases loaded he hit a home run deep to left, bringing in the base runners and recording the first Grand Slam of the year.

 

Game Notes

The entire Phillies lineup recorded a hit in the game.

The Phillies Placido Polanco recorded one run, three hits and six RBI in the win over the Nationals.

Ryan Howard recorded a home run and two RBI on two hits.

This is the first time in four years that the Phillies did not lose their opening day game.

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NL East Preview: Philadelphia Phillies Must Improve to Beat Braves

The 2010 major league baseball season officially opens tonight when the arch rival Boston Red Sox take on the World Champion New York Yankees. When Josh Beckett fired his first pitch in Beantown another marathon race to the World Series kicked off.

These two opponents are considered by most pundits to be the top teams in the American League. Consensus favors the Bronx bombers, but if any team is capable of derailing another trip to the fall classic, the Red Sox seem to be the most likely.

Although they need to wait until Monday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington nationals share the honor of opening the National League campaign. A year ago, the Phillies dominated the Nationals on their way to registering their third consecutive NL East title while Washington languished again in last place.

The Phillies still possess a powerhouse team; however, the gap between the two teams has seemed to narrow. This may be especially true when big-ticket rookie flamethrower Stephen Strasburg joins the big club as expected sometime during the season.

In assessing all five teams in the National League East, it would seem that each has improved from a year ago.

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The Philadelphia Phillies’ Five Biggest Small Keys to the 2010 Season

Those of you who regularly visit the Phillies’ BR page know that featured columnist Gary has appropriately analyzed the Phillies’ five “keys” to the 2010 season during the last few weeks.

Just as a refresher, here are Gary’s five keys:

1. How will the fifth starting pitcher fare?
2. Can Cole Hamels go back to the future?
3. Which Raul Ibanez will show up this season?
4. Will the bullpen sink or swim?
5. Which Brad Lidge shows up?

Tough to argue with any of them. But I’ve decided to take the Phillies key concept just a small step further.

The following five slides will highlight five other keys—the five biggest small keys—to the 2010 season.

Hope you enjoy looking over five more keys to the Phillies getting back to the World Series in 2010.

The Eagles might have tried to steal the headlines and excitement from the Phillies’ Opening Day by making the Donovan McNabb deal at around 8 p.m. on Easter night. But it doesn’t matter. Time to play ball!

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MLB Opening Day Gives All Teams Chance for Fresh Start

First off, I would just like to wish everybody a very happy, secular, non-denominational day of spring and painted egg collecting.

But for most of us, the most special part of this day is the first night of baseball in America.

Tonight at 8pm (or probably 9pm because of ESPN’s commercials), the New York Yankees will take on the Boston Red Sox in what will be the first day of baseball for the 2010 season. As die-hard a hockey fan as I am, nothing feels like Opening Day baseball, especially when the fate of your team is unknown.

How will your favorite team perform? Will they surprise you and win? Or will they disappoint and lose? Will players have career years? Or will players go on year-long slumps? Those are all questions we must ask ourselves before our team’s starting pitcher delivers that first pitch.

One thing is certain, though. All teams have a chance to begin fresh, to put the problems and heartbreak of seasons past out of the way and focus on winning it all this year.

This year should be very interesting. The New York Yankees are my pick to win the World Series in a repeat.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants finished with a very exciting and league-best spring training record—they will be a fun team to watch this season.

The Phillies and Red Sox will continue to be as solid as they always are, the Braves will challenge for their division, and the Pirates and Royals will continue to swelter in mediocrity.

And how about those New York Mets? Half the team is on the disabled list before the season has even begun. What should they do first? Concede the season and open up a hospital wing at Bellevue, or sign the Mexican national team to an entry-level contract and change the team to Los Mets ?

Everywhere you look, there are teams that will challenge for their respective divisions. The morally acceptable and downright futile absurdity known as “baseball parity” is finally rearing it’s ugly head.

The Rays will compete for the AL East. The Twins, Tigers, and White Sox will go down to the wire, as always, in the AL Central. And Texas should be some trouble for the perennial winning Los Angeles of the State of California at Anaheim Angels in the AL West.

Meanwhile, in the NL West, it should come down to the Dodgers and Giants, both of whom will be in the playoffs.

But the Padres will make things interesting if Adrian Gonzales can hit 60 homeruns. And the Rockies, who will start the season 20-72, will win the final 70 games of the season.

In the NL Central, the Cardinals will power past everyone in their way.

The Phillies should take the NL East, because the Braves are not strong enough, the Mets will be in full body casts by June, and the Nationals…well, they’re the Nationals.

Where does your team stand? What are your predictions for this season? We only have a few hours to go before the season is officially underway. I’m looking forward to tonight’s game, although I do not care who wins, because it’s baseball. And who can beat Joe Morgan and Jon Miller, the two best voices in the game?

Good luck to everyone out there that your favorite team will remain competitive and that this season will be exciting for us all!

Please visit my blog, “From New York to San Francisco” .

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2010 NL East: Philadelphia Phillies Will Disappoint Bobby Cox’s Legions

The National League East should be one of the easiest divisions to predict in all of baseball.

Everyone knows the Washington Nationals are dead on arrival for at least another year so put them in the cellar and etch it in stone. The Philadelphia Phillies are almost as sure a thing at the top based on lineup, rotation, and history.

Contrarily, the New York Mets look distinctly more start-and-stop than the other three clubs so put them in fourth. Scatter the Florida Marlins/Atlanta Braves in between the Metropolitans and Phils, and voila.

Easy as counting to five.

Except Bobby Cox is retiring and Jason Heyward is starting in right field so pundits have fallen in love with the Bravos.

Uh…

No disrespect to either, but I’m not sure affection for Cox will turn his charges into super-humans. And, other than Evan Longoria, I can’t remember a rookie upsetting a divisional apple cart.

Yet both eventualities would be required to take out Philly.

What’s more, how about a little respect for the franchise still rocking basically the same roster that won the 2008 World Series and was only denied a repeat in 2009 by the best team money can buy?

Philadelphia’s most seismic change has been to add Roy Halladay, which obviously makes the Phightins better. Consequently, I’m a little confused as to how any other nine will suddenly wrest the pennant from the City of Brotherly Love.

As you will see…

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Philadelphia Phillies Have Become among the Best on the Basepaths

Over the past few seasons, the Phillies have been very good at a lot of different things.

The defense? Spectacular. The power numbers? Amazing. The bullpen? Pretty good, despite Brad Lidge’s 2009 meltdown. The Phillies have also been very good at something else the past few seasons: baserunning.

Yes, we’re talking about baserunning, and it’s the elephant in the room that some managers don’t want to really speak of. In a day and age where it seems like many teams sit back and wait for the long ball, the Phillies have helped support their already capable offense with impressive numbers on the bases.

However, 2009 was a bit of a down year in terms of sheer volume of stolen bases.

The quick and dirty explanation? Jimmy Rollins’ .296 OBP often led Charlie Manuel to hold back Shane Victorino from running when he reached base. The reasoning? Manuel didn’t want to see the Phillies run into outs with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez coming up in the batting order.

Victorino went on to steal just 25 bases in 2009, down from his 36 steals in 2008 and 37 in 2007.

Meanwhile, Rollins had just 31 steals, and was caught eight times. He had 47 in 2008 and 41 in 2007. Now, with Rollins’ proclamation that he wants to steal 50 bases in 2010, baserunning conversation has been on the forefront at spring training.

Plenty of the Phillies’ success on the bases in 2010 rides on Rollins. Thankfully for the Phillies and Manuel, there are many other capable runners on this team, which can translate to success on the basepaths.

Thanks to our friends at Baseball Prospectus, we have various stats to look at while trying to sum up the baserunning debate.

EqBRR is a relatively reliable stat that “measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.”

In a day and age where many people question the use of sabermetrics, it seems as if the people at BP have created a valuable stat, because it has been rather consistent.

While the Phillies were 11th in the majors in EqBBR in 2009, they were second in the league in 2008 and tops among all teams in 2007. Many give credit to Davey Lopes for turning around the team’s baserunning fortunes. But the Phillies were also ranked third in 2006, a year before Lopes got here.

Don’t underestimate Lopes’ impact, however. If anything, Lopes has been able to make the Phillies a smarter team on the bases. They rarely make mistakes.

In 2007, they set a record for best stolen base percentage of any team in MLB history, with an 87.9 percent success rate. Last year, they led the league in stolen base percentage once more, at 86 percent. And while they stole less than previous years, they stole effectively.

A lot of people call Joe Maddon a brilliant manager. We’ll never forget the epic moment when Maddon staged the five-man infield in the 2008 World Series.

On national television, he looked like he was directing and preparing a Union charge against the Confederates. People seem to love Maddon because he diverges from the norm.

The Rays were picked off 23 times last year as a team, most among anyone in the majors. While this at least shows a dedicated appreciation to a return of the art of the stolen base, it also shows a bit of recklessness on the bases on the Rays’ part.

Efficiency reigns supreme in the baserunning debate. Teams like Tampa Bay are only hurting themselves with miscues while trying to steal. While they led the league with 176 steals last season, the Rays were also caught 47 times. It’s an advantage to have gifted and athletic players such as Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, but the Rays are not using them to the best of their abilities.

While half the battle is having fast, talented, and efficient baserunners, the coaching staff and manager are also vital to a team’s success on the bases. The Phillies have lucked into both. Rollins, Victorino, Utley, and Werth are all above-average baserunners.

And, as long as the stats and the on-field evidence continue to prove it, the Phillies have the best coaching staff in baseball in terms of strength on the bases.

Manuel has also taken advantage of the double steal, and it’s a wonder that the creativity has seeped out of the game as teams continually look for the home run.

The Phillies attempted 17 double steals and were successful on 13 of them. The Rangers’ Ron Washington sent his runners into 19 double steals, and succeeded 17 times.

It seems as if the teams that have committed the time to baserunning skills in spring training are seeing it pay off during the season, and it’s baffling that more teams haven’t been able to succeed with a simple aspect of the game. It’s not rocket science, it’s just a way to try and get an extra base or two.

This is also a great time to take some space to praise Utley, who has become one of the best baserunners in the game.

John Dewan, of The Fielding Bible , named Utley the second best on the bases. Dewan ranks Utley at a +96 over the past five years, behind only Grady Sizemore of the Cleveland Indians. Essentially, Dewan says that the best way to look at the stat is to say that Utley has taken 96 more bases than the average runner over these last five years. Last year alone, Utley was a +27.

While the Phillies have become one of the best offensive powerhouses in recent history, it’s important to remember that they aren’t just doing it through the home run.

The round-tripper is an important part of the Phillies’ offense, but the Phillies continue to show that they have increased their offensive output through smart baserunning and good decisions on the bases.

While they had a bit of a down year in 2009 in terms of the amount of stolen bases, the Phillies are hoping to be better than average again in 2010.

Hey, Jimmy, let’s get 50.

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2010 Major League Baseball Projections: Phillies Win World Series

The 2010 Major League Baseball season begins Sunday night with the Yankees in Boston to play the Red Sox. Fast forward six months, and here you have it, the final standings…

American League East

New York Yankees 98-64
Boston Red Sox 92-70
Tampa Bay Rays 86-76
Baltimore Orioles 82-80
Toronto Blue Jays 77-85

Everyone keeps hyping up the Rays as the dark horse to win the division, but I don’t see it, they have pitching depth, but no-one’s going to win more than 15 games. I don’t think B.J. Upton’s going to have his breakout year, I don’t think he’s ever going to live out his original full potential.

Plus, they don’t have a decent third outfielder, and Bartlett and Zobrist will certainly regress. Not to mention Navarro and Burrell at C/DH don’t really intrigue me. Nobody’s catching the Yankees. The Red Sox will be pretty good, however, and the Orioles aren’t quite there yet.

American League Central
Detroit Tigers 89-73
Minnesota Twins 87-75
Chicago White Sox 86-76
Cleveland Indians 68-94
Kansas City Royals 63-99

A trendy pick this year to repeat as pennant winners, the Twins, just don’t strike me as an elite team. They have a good core of Morneau, Mauer and a few other guys like Cuddyer, Span, or Kubel, but with Hudson/Hardy/Punto (good, but not playoffs-stuff) making up the rest of their infield, they won’t be able to get over the hump.

The Tigers have both a great batting order and a great pitching staff, and they’ll win this division race, three games better than the improved White Sox. The Indians and Royals: Keep rebuilding…

American League West
Los Angeles Angels 90-72
Seattle Mariners 89-73
Texas Rangers 82-80
Oakland Athletics 67-95

The Mariners are a popular pick, but they don’t quite beat out the Angels. I think Cliff Lee is going to be fantastic, but they just won’t score enough runs to win the division.

The Rangers don’t have any pitching, so they’re limited, and the Athletics should be terrible. Some people have hope in the A’s, but I don’t, they shouldn’t score any runs and their pitching staff could be a train-wreck (other than Anderson and Bailey).

National League East
Philadelphia Phillies 95-67
Atlanta Braves 85-77
New York Mets 83-79
Florida Marlins 82-80
Washington Nationals  71-91

The Phillies run away with this one, there has been talk that the Braves or Marlins could make it a race, but in my mind it’s not even close. Barring a Mets-like health collapse, the Phillies are far and away the elite team in this division.

I don’t think the Mets are bad, and think that they win more than they lose, with everyone healthy they’re a decent team. The Nationals are terrible, but their offense could produce a fair amount of runs, it’s pitching that’s the problem.

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers 81-81
Cincinnati Reds 78-84
Chicago Cubs 76-86
Pittsburgh Pirates 57-105

This division stinks. The Cardinals should win the division with relative ease, but they’d finish fourth if placed in the AL East, they have a slightly above average offense and a decent pitching staff.

If everything falls in favour of the Reds, they could potentially win the division, but other than that the other teams don’t have a hope. I just don’t understand the Pirates, they lose because they don’t retain their stars and don’t really have many stars, an eternal losing equation.

National League West
Colorado Rockies 89-73
Los Angeles Dodgers 87-75
San Francisco Giants 84-78
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-80
San Diego Padres 68-94

The Rockies or Dodgers will win the division, people talk about the D-Backs being possible sleepers, but they won 70 games last year! Sure they improved, but don’t expect a 20 game turnaround. The Padres are terrible, with no pitching and not much batting either.

Playoffs
Yankees over Tigers 3-1
Red Sox over Angels 3-2 (Despite Angels success against Red Sox in playoffs, the new-look Sox take it anyway)

Phillies over Cardinals 3-0 (Cardinals get utterly destroyed, all three games by a margin of at least 3 runs)
Dodgers over Rockies 3-2

Red Sox over Yankees 4-3 (better pitching and defense, topped with Boston’s acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez two weeks before deadline allows Red Sox to prevail)

Phillies over Dodgers 4-2 (Dodgers are a good club, but lucky to make it this far, and it shows as Roy Halladay pitches two shutouts for Phils)

Phillies over Red Sox 4-2 to win World Series
The Phillies, led by a sparkling offense and superb pitching staff (yes, Brad Lidge has somewhat of a bounce-back year) win the World Series for the 2nd time in three years.

Awards
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, DET (.330, 41 HR, 128 RBI)
AL Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez, SEA (21-8, 2.35 ERA, 220 K)
AL Rookie of the Year: Scott Sizemore, DET (.285, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 20 SB)

NL MVP: Ryan Braun, MIL (.325, 40 HR, 120 RBI, 22 SB)
NL Cy Young Award: Roy Halladay, PHI (20-6, 2.25 ERA, 215 K)
NL Rookie of Year: Jason Heyward, ATL (.280, 26 HR, 80 RBI)

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