Roy Oswalt Dealt to Philadelphia: Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Fallout

The Philadelphia Phillies have acquired Roy Oswalt and cash in exchange for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar according to MLB Network.

 

The Phillies Get

They create the type of one-two combo they could have had, except that they opted not to keep Cliff Lee once they acquired Roy Halladay in the off season.

With most pitchers you would be concerned with the move to a hitters ballpark, but it is not like Oswalt has called a pitcher’s paradise home in recent years. He has been better on the road (2.68 ERA) this year, but his 3.96 ERA at home is nothing to complain about.

It’s not like he is an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.0 percent in 2010 and 31.9 percent for his career) or gives up a lot of home runs (0.91 HR/9 in 2010 and 0.78 for his career). That should translate to Citizens Bank Park, you would think.

He hasn’t been overly lucky this season, with a .283 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and 73.3 percent strand rate. His control has always been a strength.

The one concern may be his strikeout rate. He currently has a K/9 of 8.4. That’s a full strikeout better than his career mark. In fact, since 2005 he’s only had a K/9 above 7.0 once (7.1 in 2008).

If he were to regress there, his WHIP and ERA would likely suffer slightly, because he would give up more hits (assuming his BABIP remains consistent). Yes it’s a slight concern, but not enough. He actually only had one big strikeout month this season (44 K in 38.1 IP in May).

He’s going to continue to be an above average pitcher, now with the ability to win games. It’s a big boost in his fantasy appeal.

 

The Astros Get

Happ had great numbers in 2009 (12 W, 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP), but he also benefited from an 85.2 percent strand rate so his ERA is a bit deceiving.

Like Oswalt, the ballpark will not be a factor, but he goes into a far worse situation to get wins. That’s a huge hit on his value, as was his less then stellar numbers during his rehab (5.97 ERA).

Then again, he’s shown more strikeout potential in the minor leagues (9.3 K/9 over 528.0 innings prior to 2010), so you would expect the lefties 6.6 K/9 in the majors to improve with experience.

He’s got value in deeper formats, but is not likely to be a must start in 2010. He projects more as a pitcher with a high three, low four ERA for the rest of the year, so don’t expect much more than that.

Gose is an outfielder who was ranked as the Phillies’ sixth-best prospect prior to the season by Baseball America. He is best known for his defense and speed. He had 76 stolen bases in 96 attempts last season, but has struggled slightly this year.

He has 36 stolen bases, but has been caught 27 times at High-A Clearwater. He also needs to improve his ability to make contact, having struck out 103 times in 418 at-bats thus far this season.

Villar is another speed guy, though as a shortstop. He’s hitting .272 with two home runs and 38 stolen bases at Single-A this season, though he too struggles with strikeouts (103 in 371 at-bats).

Neither prospect is close to making an impact.

What are your thoughts on the deal? How is Oswalt’s value affected? What about Happ’s?

Make sure to check out our trade deadline analysis:

Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez

Alberto Callaspo traded to the Angels, Dan Haren traded to the Angels

Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers

Scott Podsednik to the Dodgers

 

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