Latest Cliff Lee Deal Validates the Philadelphia Phillies’ Blunder

Yesterday’s trade of Cliff Lee confirmed what a majority of Philadelphia Phillies and their fans suspected to be true all along—last winter’s deal was a terrible blunder. 

 

On one hand, the team might take solace in the fact that Lee was shipped to the Texas Rangers rather than their divisional arch rivals, other National League contenders, or the World Champion New York Yankees—in that order. 

 

On the other hand, Ruben Amaro and the entire Phillies organization have to be consumed with the sinking feeling of what could have been. 

 

The first lament is that Lee could have helped form the best starting rotation in baseball—one capable of carrying an injury-riddled club through a challenging 2010 season. Perhaps they might not be in first place at this juncture, but they would be considerably better positioned for a fourth consecutive NL East title. 

 

The second lament is that today’s deal offered proof positive that the Phillies essentially gave away one of baseball’s best pitchers when his stock was probably at an all-time high. 

 

Lee has widely been considered the crown jewel of this year’s annual midsummer swap meet. Several teams had been rumored interested to highly covetous of the Cy Young lefty for a simple reason. 

 

Lee could instantly take them to the next level, whether it be legitimate playoff contender or World Series favorite. 

 

The Rangers deal validated his worth, as did the “imminent” trade to the New York Yankees that fell through earlier in the day. Both clubs offered a top 15 prospect (as rated by Baseball America and many other scouting pundits) along with other talent in exchange for the all-star hurler. 

 

The Yankees were willing to part with baseball’s top catching prospect, and preseason fourth rated prospect overall, Jesus Montero as the headliner with two other players. Speculation was that an injury to one of the prospects caused the Mariners to back away from the deal. 

 

Instead, Seattle opted for switch-hitting first baseman Justin Smoak from the Rangers (the 13th rated prospect heading into the season) along with Blake Beavan and two other players. Smoak was the team’s  top draft pick in 2008, and Beavan was the first rounder a year earlier. 

 

In contrast, the Phillies received the 93rd rated prospect according to Baseball America heading into both this season and last season—along with Tyson Gillies and JC Ramirez. 

 

Amaro spun the trade of Lee as a necessity to replenish the farm system that had been severely depleted in the trade to land the pitcher the previous July and the deal to obtain Roy Halladay. Finances were also cited as big contracts to Halladay, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, Raul Ibanez, and arbitration pressures helped push the team’s payroll toward $140 million. 

 

Those debates aside, the Mariners-Rangers deal highlights how badly the Phillies missed the mark in extracting value in return for the toast of last year’s postseason. Just weeks removed from the Yankees World Series triumph over the Phillies, all of baseball was still abuzz about Lee’s fabulous performances. 

 

Lee had used the game’s biggest stage, along with a fabulous 22-3 Cy Young campaign the previous season, to cement his place as one of baseball’s very best pitchers. With free agency pending after the 2011 season, pundits anticipated a mega-deal on the horizon. 

 

Somehow, though, Amaro and the Phillies parted with the highly impressive hurler for considerably less than what the Mariners were able to get a half year later. And, it stands to reason that Lee’s value would have only decreased between then and now as he has half the shelf life. 

 

Philadelpia accepted the 93rd ranked prospect versus the 13th ranked prospect that Seattle received—after turning down the 4th ranked prospect. 

 

To put this into a Phillies fan’s perspective, that is roughly the equivalent of accepting Lou Marson or Jason Donald in lieu of Dominic Brown.  

 

Considering that the Rangers also included another highly touted No. 1 selection, it becomes even more lopsided.  The cumulative value of the other players involved in each deal can be debated, but the disparity in headliners is dramatic. 

 

As further evidence of the Phillies blunder in trading Lee, one needs to look no further than the Halladay deal itself. In order to obtain the big right-hander, the team shipped out the 25th, 29th, and 81st rated prospects.

 

Although many might argue that Halladay had the superior resume to Lee and is a notch above, most would agree that the separation between the two is very slight. 

 

It does not take a math whiz to figure out that the Phillies paid dramatically more for Halladay than they accepted for Lee—and that the differential is tremendously greater than that between the two all-star pitchers. 

 

Surely, signability of each player factored into the equation and clouded the comparison, but the latest deal now gives us additional backdrop to assess the move that shocked the Phillies fanbase last winter. 

 

The purpose here is not to pile on, but rather provide some additional objective analysis of a trade that was widely panned at the time and could go down as one of the worst in team history. 

 

Amaro rightfully received ample praise for his 2009 seasonal body of work that helped the team make a second straight World Series appearance. Specifically, his refusal to give away his prized prospects for Halladay and instead acquire Lee with second-tier players was the type of genius that earns you “MLB Executive of the Year.”

 

Regrettably, he followed that up with the tandem ace swaps shortly after the season-ending defeat to the Yankees that seemingly reversed that genius and has weakened the team’s chances for this season and beyond. 

 

Amaro’s rationale in acquiring Halladay can be understood as he was willing to sign a long-term contract. Making it an either/or situation with Lee is much harder to understand. 

 

But, if is was absolutely necessary to part with him, it seems abundantly clear that the rushed, lightly negotiated manor in which it was done yielded far less than true market value. It seemed that few teams even knew that the Phillies might be willing to trade their ace. 

 

Of course, the actual performances of the three players acquired by the Phillies last December has done nothing to dissuade this notion. Since being demoted to Single-A, Aumont has improved his record to 2-6 with a 6.53 ERA. Gillies is hitting .238 in Double-A. And Ramirez is a so-so 6-4 with a 4.22 ERA between Single-A and Double-A. 

 

Perhaps RAJ will pull off another brilliant move that will propel the current teetering club to a successful year? Or, perhaps he will figure out a way to clear payroll, re-sign Lee in free agency, and/or maneuver the team back to another championship in the near future?

 

But, in the meantime, the Philadelphia faithful are left with a sick feeling that another triumphant trip down Broad Street may have been foolishly given away. And, hearing about yesterday’s trade was like eating some spoiled sushi on top of an already upset stomach. 

 

The Phillies have done many, many things right over the past several years—and in many ways have been the model organization. Unfortunately, last December’s trade of Cliff Lee was one very big blunder.      

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2010 MLB All-Star Break: Major League Baseball Midseason Award Winners

Major League Baseball rewards the best players in the league each season with a bevy of postseason awards.  

But giving out awards is too much fun to only do once a year, so as we approach the All-Star break—the ceremonial midpoint in the baseball season—let’s take a look back and give out some midseason awards.

We’ll do all conventional awards, but first, here are 10 unconventional awards to whet your appetite:

Unconventional Awards

10. The Craig Biggio Award: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Bill James once said Craig Biggio was the 35th greatest player of all time and, to support this point, cited Biggio’s remarkable 1997 season in which he got hit by a pitch a shocking 34 times while at the same time hitting into no double plays.

While Biggio isn’t the 35th best player of all time, but those numbers are, nonetheless, shocking.

We give the midseason Craig Biggio Award to Rickie Weeks, who in addition to having accumulated 407 plate appearances by the All-Star break, has managed to be hit by a pitch a league-leading 15 times while hitting into only one double play all season.

9. The Nolan Ryan Award: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros

In 1987, while with the Houston Astros, Nolan Ryan accomplished the remarkable feat of leading the National League in strikeouts and ERA while finishing the season 8-16.

In 2010, the Astros are at it again.  After pitching a one-hitter on Thursday afternoon, Roy Oswalt’s ERA is now 3.08, and he has improved his record to 6-10.  Those 10 losses lead the National League.

8. The Chris Shelton Award: Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies

In 2006, Chris Shelton got off to an amazing start with the Detroit Tigers, and by May 1, he had 10 home runs, 20 RBI, a .326 batting average, and a .783 slugging percentage.  From that point forward, he played so poorly he actually got demoted to Triple-A before August.

Jayson Werth may not get demoted to Lehigh Valley, but he has significantly dropped off of a outstanding early season pace.  On May 7, Werth was batting .359 with a .420 on-base percentage and a .689 slugging percentage through 29 games.  

He had 16 doubles, which put him on pace for over 80 on the season, and a major league record. He also had 24 runs and 24 RBI, which put him on pace for over about 130 of each.

Since May 7, J-Werth has hit .232 with a .335 on-base percentage and a .414 slugging percentage.  He has only 10 doubles in his last 52 games, and he has struck out 53 times.

7. The Ernie Lombardi Award: Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals

Ernie Lombardi was a great hitter.  He won two batting titles and finished his career with a lifetime .306 batting average.  He was also one of the slowest players in major league history, and led the National League four seperate times in ground out double plays.

Meet Billy Butler.  Butler is a great hitter.  He already has 25 doubles on the season and he’s hitting .327 with a .394 on-base percentage.  He already has over 100 hits and 46 RBI.

In baseball history, 132 players have hit into 21 double plays in a single season. The newest member of that club is Billy Butler, who already has 21 in in just 84 games.

6. The Vince Coleman Award: Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox

Coleman was one of the greatest base-stealers of all time.  If he could have gotten on base consistently, he might have stolen 2,000 bases in his career.  But he was a terrible baseball player.  In 1994, in just 104 games, Coleman stole 50 bases for the Kansas City Royals despite hitting just  .240 with an on-base percentage .285.

The current, 2010 major league leader in stolen bases is Juan Pierre, who doesn’t seem to be slowing down as he gets older.  

Of course, he’s only hitting .260 with a .330 on-base percentage, and his slugging percentage is a ridiculous .294– but he’s has had several plate appearances and lots of trips to first base, and it has resulted in more than a few stolen bases.

5. The Rob Deer Award: Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks

Deer was a true outcome player.  When he came to the plate, he was either going to walk, strike out, or hit a home run.  In 1987, in just 134 games, he hit 28 home runs, was walked 86 times, and struck out 186 times; he also hit .238.

Mark Reynolds is the perfect mix of Deer and Dave Kingman– who was Deer without the walks.  Reynolds ranks eighth in the MLB with 19 home runs. unfortunately for the Diamondbacks he is accompaning his homeruns with a .216 batting average and 116 strikeouts.

Reynolds has set the major league record for strikeouts in the last two season (with 204 and 223) he is on pace to do it again in 2010

4. The Dave Bush Award: Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Looking only at Dave Bush’s peripherals, you would swear he is a great pitcher.  In 2006, he led the National League with a 4.37 K:BB ratio, and he struck out over seven batters per nine innings. But he went 12-11 with a 4.41 ERA that year.

In 2010, Brandon Morrow is one of four major league pitchers averaging over 10 strikeouts per game; the other three—Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, and Tim Lincecum—all are Cy Young candidates.

Morrow, meanwhile, is 5-6 with a 4.69 ERA and is not in the mix.

3. The Carlos Silva Award: Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners

It is one of the sickest statistics you’ll ever see: in 2005, Carlos Silva walked nine batters in 188.1 innings pitched, which is the fewest batters ever walked by a pitcher throwing at least 160 innings in a season.  

Silva had an unworldly 7.89 K:BB ratio that year—the 15th best all time and eighth best since 1900—despite managing only 71 K’s.

In 2010, Lee is giving Silva a run for his money.  In 103.2 innings pitched, Lee has allowed only six walks on the season.  

The difference between Lee and Silva is that Lee is also striking batters out regularly, and currently has a 14.83 K:BB ratio, which would distantly be the greatest K:BB season of all time.

2. The Red Ruffing Award: Carlos Silva, Chicago Cubs

In 1928 and 1929, Red Ruffing was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He led the American League in losses both seasons, going 19-47 over the stretch.

After starting the 1930 season 0-3, the Red Sox shipped him off to the New York Yankees, and the rest is history. From 1930 to 1946, lost two years because of World War II, Ruffing went 231-124 with a 3.44 ERA.  

Today, Ruffing is in the Hall of Fame.

For the last four years, Carlos Silva has been a terrible pitcher.  For Minnesota and Seattle, he has gone 29-47 with a 5.60 ERA and 83 home runs allowed. He has given up a shocking 729 hits in 566.0 innings pitched, which is “What are you still doing in baseball?” type stuff.

Before the 2010 season, the Cubs took Silva off the Mariners hands in exchange for problem-child Milton Bradley.  Since then, Silva has been a different pitcher: 9-2, 2.96 ERA, under a hit per inning pitched, and a 4.38 K:BB ratio.

Who is this masked man?

1. The Jamey Wright Award: Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays

I once nicknamed Jamey Wright “The Terrible Machine ” because of his awful combination of home runs allowed and hit batters.  Despite having pitched only 1,700 career innings, Wright ranks 31st all-time in batters hit by a pitch.

Contrary to what I predicted, Ricky Romero is having a lovely season.  He is currently 6-5 with a 3.39 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 114.0 innings pitched.  However, Romero currently leads the majors with 15 HBP’s.

How bad a number is this at the All-Star break?  Only 32 pitchers have topped 20 HBP’s in a single season since 1901, and Romero is on pace to become the first player since 1901 to break 30.

 

Conventional Awards

My midseason 2010 conventional awards:

AL Most Valuable Player: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

Either Cabrera or Justin Morneau.  Ask me tomorrow, and I’ll say Morneau.  Then the next day, I’ll say Cabrera again.

NL Most Valuable Player: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

To all you Joey Votto fans, I say Votto is having a great season, but I think Gonzalez is the most underrated player in baseball and is having a deceptively amazing season.

AL Cy Young Award: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

Not nearly as strong a field as the NL, but I think it is Price.

NL Cy Young Award: Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies

To all you Josh Johnson fans, I say Johnson is having a fabulous year, but if Johnson had to pitch at Coors Field and Jimenez could pitch at Sun Life Stadium, the difference between them would be night and day.

AL Rookie of the Year: Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers

I never in a million years thought he’d be on the team this early in the season.  And yet he looks like an All-Star.

Neftali Feliz is another good candidate, but I don’t like constantly giving the award to closers.

NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves

The award is Heyward’s to lose, but he may have some trouble from Stephen Strasburg and Mike Leake if he can’t get healthy and get back on track.

AL Fireman of the Year: Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees

He’s somehow having the best season of his career. I don’t get it.

NL Fireman of the Year: Billy Wagner, Atlanta Braves

He’s somehow having the best season of his career. I don’t get it.

 

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com

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Scott Rolen vs. Chase Utley: Comparing Philadelphia’s Villain and Hero

When a 22-year-old third baseman named Scott Rolen burst onto the scene in 1997 by winning the NL Rookie of the Year award, he won over the fans who followed the Phillies during some of the franchise’s darkest days.

For the next four years, the youngster with such potential was compared to one man and one man only: Michael Jack Schmidt, the best third baseman in baseball history and the greatest player ever to wear a Phillies uniform.

Flash forward to 2010: Rolen returned to town this weekend as a member of the Cincinnati Reds, and Phillie fans welcomed him back home in the exact same way they have since 2002.

Scott Rolen was one of the finest players in Phillies history. Too bad he’ll never be remembered like that.

For Rolen, where did it all go so wrong?

After all, Rolen was a fan favorite during most of his time here, the late 1990’s. You know, back in the days of Nintendo 64, back when middle-school dance functions first played Britney Spears and ‘N Sync, and back when Monica Lewinski’s mug appeared on the cover of every magazine in America.

Back then, Rolen was the Phillies’ Chase Utley.

In Philadelphia today, it’s probably baseball blasphemy to mention Scott Rolen and Chase Utley in the same sentence. But, the two players actually have, and had, a lot in common.

For years, Utley has been the best all-around player on a Phillies team loaded with talent. Similarly, Rolen was the best all-around player on his Phillies teams that simply weren’t very good.

Remember what it was like to have Desi Relaford instead of Jimmy Rollins? Matt Beech instead of Cole Hamels? Mickey Morandini instead of Chase Utley?

Utley was, and still is, the absolute right guy at the absolute right time. Scott Rolen, on the other hand, was the absolute right guy at the absolute wrong time. Still, the similarities between the two run deeper than that.

 

1. Five-Tool Ability

They could both hit for average, hit for power, run, field, and throw. When Utley’s at his best, there’s nothing on the field he can’t do. The same could be said of Rolen during his tenure in Philly.

 

2. Gamers

Everyone knows Utley has tremendous on-field tenacity and intelligence. But anyone who watched the Phillies during the lean years knows that Rolen’s style was very similar. Both men played the game as hard as anyone. Scott was a smart base runner who went from first-to-third on a single whenever possible and broke up double plays with hard slides. His hot-corner defense was pretty good too….

 

3. Never A Quote Machine

Scott wasn’t a talker. Intel about his non-baseball activities was always confidential. Scott never seemed like a vocal clubhouse leader. Then again, neither has Chase Utley. Chase lets his play on the field do the talking. Rolen did the same. Has Utley ever given a real passionate quote over the years? Well, there was one….’08 World Series parade?

 

4. Chick Magnet

Yep. They flocked for the Scott Rolen jersey long before Pat Burrell, Jayson Werth, or Cole Hamels appeared on the radar. The babes who at one point held up “Scotty’s a Hottie” signs at the Vet eventually converted to “Burrell’s Girls” a few years later.

Of course, Chase is pretty popular with the women, too. But Rolen’s female fanbase was even more impressive since a Phillies game during the late ‘90s wasn’t exactly considered the unparalleled social hotspot that it is today for people 15 to 25.

 

What’s Done Is Done. But It’s Still Sad

Of course, the Phillies did their best to re-sign Rolen in March 2002, but Scott had feuded with management in the past year and was desperate to leave his losing team in favor of a serious contender.

Phillie fans didn’t like that.

Rolen turned down the Phils long-term contract offer. Through the entire first half of the 2002 season, the Philadelphia fanbase booed him before every at-bat and after every out he made.

The man who had been the Phillies most beloved player for six seasons was suddenly their most hated.

Think the fans were hard on Donovan McNabb? He had it easy by comparison.

When Rolen was traded to the Cardinals at the ’02 deadline, he spoke of St. Louis as “Baseball Heaven” and criticized the Philly fanbase. Considering the way he was treated over his final four months in town, could you really fault Rolen for saying what he said?

In Philadelphia today, Rolen is known as a malcontented mercenary who hated everything about the fans and the city.

Will Philadelphia ever welcome back Scott Rolen? Ever? Probably not.

Just don’t forget that during Bill Clinton’s second term in office there were pretty much only two reasons to watch a Phillies game. 1) To hear the great Harry Kalas. 2) To watch Philadelphia’s young third baseman do his thing….

A lot has changed in Philadelphia over the years, but one thing hasn’t. To this day, Scott Rolen is still compared to one man and one man only. But it isn’t Chase Utley, and it sure as hell ain’t Michael Jack Schmidt anymore:

It’s J.D. Drew.

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2010 MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Oswalt One-Hits Pirates as Phillies, Others Look On

When does the Major League leader in losses by a pitcher generate major buzz amongst the teams looking to add pitching at the trade deadline?

When that pitcher has a 3.08 ERA, 112 strikeouts in 120 innings pitched and just threw a one hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, in which he allowed only a two-out first inning single before holding the team hitless the rest of the way.

Or, to put it another way, when that pitcher’s name is Roy Oswalt.

There is little doubt at this point that Oswalt will be traded. That the Houston Astros are going nowhere in 2010 is an understatement, and it might, frankly, be irresponsible for the team to hold on to Oswalt when there are so many holes to fill in the roster.

In that sense, all Oswalt has done with his one-hitter today is sweeten the pot for the Astros. Any lingering doubts about Oswalt regarding his 2010 record, his health and consistency the last couple of seasons, or even his age, may have been answered today.

A dominant force in the early part of the last decade, Oswalt finished in the top five in Cy Young voting in the National League five times in six years from 2001 to 2006.  He is a three time All Star and he has led the league in winning percentage once, wins once and ERA once.

Despite his 6-10 record this season, Oswalt’s .640 winning percentage is the fifth best amongst active qualifying pitchers and ranks 36th all time.

But Oswalt hasn’t been his usual self in the last couple of years. After winning 10 or more games and posting a winning percentage over .600 in each of his first eight seasons, Oswalt fell to 8-6 last season.  

Worse yet, Oswalt posted a career worst 4.12 ERA in 2009, besting by over half a run his previous career worst of 3.54.

But all of that is easy to forget on this day. For all intents and purposes, Oswalt is back. And for the Astros, he could not have returned soon enough.

According to MLB.com’s Brian Taggert, the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers all had representatives on hand on Thursday to watch Oswalt.

They must have liked what they saw.  

The good news for the Astros is that Oswalt is no longer a player that teams are going to think they can get on the cheap. This recent performance will be all the evidence they need that any team looking to acquire Oswalt had better be ready to dangle legitimate A-list prospects in return.

One must wonder whether the Philadelphia Phillies are even in the Oswalt hunt at this point. With the minor league system relatively depleted (despite all efforts by Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. to the contrary), the Phils would likely have to give up major league level players to get Oswalt.  

One option might be shipping one of the starting outfielders to the Astros for Oswalt and then calling up Domonic Brown, but it is difficult to imagine the Astros being interested in Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino or Raul Ibanez.

At the same time, though, with the New York Mets in the picture, the Phillies may not be able to afford to not be in the picture. If the Mets somehow swung Roy Oswalt to join Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey, well, the season would likely be over for the Phils.

On the other hand, Oswalt has been linked to a veritable gaggle of teams, including the Rangers, Twins, Nationals (speaking of scary for the Phillies), Angels, Tigers, and Cardinals, so it may not be time to panic just yet.

Nevertheless, it is an interesting conundrum that just got a little more interesting on Thursday, and all because a 5-10 pitcher for the Astros threw a one-hit shutout today.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

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MLB Trade Rumors: Is Jayson Werth Worth More Than Adam Dunn?

Don’t let your eyes fool you.  This bum look-alike will actually be worth more this off-season than you or anyone else who reads this will make in the rest of your lifetimes.  Philadelphia rightfielder Jayson Werth will command top dollar as a free agent after this season.  Outside of Tampa Bay‘s Carl Crawford, there are no other total package outfielders available.

Werth is so valuable the Phillies are viewing him as a possible way to upgrade their team via a trade.  Top prospect and heir-apparent Dominic Brown is starting to tear it up in Triple A.

Naturally, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has wondered, “What is Werth worth on the trading market?”

The Phillies want to upgrade their pitching for the stretch run.  Philly is six games back of Atlanta in the NL East and trail the Mets by three for the Wild Card. While they were hit hard by injuries, the Phillies are still in it. If they make the right moves, defending their NL crown isn’t a stretch at all.

But what is Werth worth?

Werth is only a three month rental at best.  Unless your name is Cliff Lee, teams are very wary about giving up a huge bounty for a rental.  And Werth has competition.  Washington‘s Adam Dunn, also a potential rental trade candidate, is fresh off of a three-homer game and is a perennial 40 HR, 100 RBI masher.

Who is worth more?

It probably depends on what you need.  Werth can do just about everything.  He can hit for power.  He can hit for a decent average.  He can play above-average defense in right field.  He can steal you a base or two.

But is he a true middle-of-the-order threat?

Dunn can’t do many of those things.  But what he can do, he does very well.  Dunn represents a game-changer every time he steps to the plate.  While Werth will make contributions all over the place, Dunn can swing the balance of a game with one swing.

Werth is no slouch when it comes to power production.  Last year he clubbed 34 HR.  This year his power is back down into the mid 20’s, on pace for a 26 HR season.  But how much does the feared Phillies offense protect him when they are healthy?  It’s easier to see great pitches when you have Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins on your team. 

Can Werth be a difference-maker with his bat on a less stellar offensive team?

Werth does have one thing going for him that Dunn does not—a proven post-season track record. He had a .309 post-season batting average in 2008 and seven home runs in the 2009 post-season.  Werth seems to shine the brightest in front of the game’s brightest lights.  Werth is October tested and October proven.

Dunn has never made it to the post-season.

Dunn does one thing well.  He hits home runs.  What happens if he doesn’t hit those home runs?  Is the threat of him hitting one out good enough?  Does it provide enough lineup protection to the team that acquired him to be a middle-of-the-order hitter?

So what is Werth worth?  Would Dunn or Werth fetch more in a trade?  What do you think?  Does Werth’s all-around game best Dunns all-or-nothing, feast-or-famine bashing?

For me, my money is on the one who has shown his “Werth” in October.

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2010 MLB Trade Rumors: The Time Might Be Now To Trade Jayson Werth

If there is anything we’ve learned from recent baseball history, it is that the good teams make the obvious moves when the time comes to make them, but the great teams make the right moves when no one else sees them.

To my mind, the best recent example of the difference between obvious moves and good moves comes from the Ken Williams Era in Chicago.  After the 2004 season, Williams traded Carlos Lee to the Milwaukee Brewers for Scott Podsednik and allowed Magglio Ordonez to sign with the Detroit Tigers as a free agent.

With two moves, Williams had gotten rid of two of his team’s best power hitters.  He also made his team leaner, faster, and better defensively, and the White Sox ended up winning the World Series with pitching and defense instead of home runs and strikeouts.

Then, just as quickly as he had assembled his team, Williams dismantled it, trading away Aaron Rowand, the best defensive center fielder in the American League, for big lumbering power hitter Jim Thome.  He also traded away Orlando Hernandez and Chris Young to the Arizona Diamondbacks for flashy but home run prone Javier Vazquez.

The White Sox haven’t been to the ALCS since.

At this point in the 2010 season, and in the current Philadelphia Phillies dynasty, the Phillies and General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. are in the Jim Thome-Javier Vazquez phase of the operation.  

After having made excellent moves to get to the World Series twice—including cutting ties with Thome as well as Bobby Abreu; bringing in guys like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino on the cheap; sending Michael Bourn to the Astros for Brad Lidge; signing defense-specialist Pedro Feliz—the Phillies have started making the obvious moves, and haven’t necessarily benefitted from them.

Acquiring Cliff Lee at the trade deadline last season was necessary, and it was a good deal, but the Phillies gave up prospects to do it.  To turn around and give up even more prospects in order to acquire Roy Halladay but toss Lee to the Mariners was a questionable decision.  

Giving Raul Ibanez a three-year deal at 37 to come play in the DH-less National League was a stretch.  Giving Ryan Howard a $25 million-per-year extension 18 months before his current contract expires was both questionable in terms of both timing and amount.

And now it appears as though the Philadelphia Phillies have come to a crossroads with another one of their players, and Amaro has a chance to once again make either the obvious move or the right move.

We’re talking, of course, about Jayson Werth.

Make no mistake about it: Werth has been one of the guys that have gotten the Phillies to the World Series twice, and he’s been a good contributor at the plate and in the field. The Phillies initially envisioned Werth as a platoon outfielder with Geoff Jenkins of all people, but he proved himself worthy of an everyday spot in the order.

Since taking over right field on an everyday basis in 2008, Werth has hit 60 home runs, driven in 166 RBI, and scored 171 runs in two seasons.  In 2010, Werth already has 26 doubles—tying a career high in just 80 games—along with 51 runs, 48 RBI, and 13 home runs.

Werth is, of course, a free agent after this season.  Regarding Werth’s presence on the open market, his agent had this to say:

“It’s apparent that Jayson is going to be the No. 1, premier position player available. He’ll be the only true five-tool player, and I expect if he does not sign back with the Phillies there would be many suitors for him. In a true free market, there should be many suitors. And he’s also the same age as Ryan Howard.”

Look, I like Jayson Werth, but let’s not get carried away.  Werth is a good player, but he has also benefited greatly from playing for the Phillies.

For one thing, Werth has been a bit of a hometown hero during his stay at Citizens Bank Park.  In 2009, 21 of his 36 home runs came at home, as did 54 of his 98 runs and 53 of his 99 RBI.  His OPS at home was .902 while his OPS on the road was .857.

Those numbers are even more startling in 2010.  Werth has collected 10 of 13 home runs, 31 of his 48 RBI, and 29 of his 51 runs at home.  He is hitting .296 at home but just .262 on the road, and his .984 OPS at Citizens’ Bank is almost 200 points higher than his road .788 OPS.

Not only does Werth do his best work at home; he also does his best work with no one on base.  In 2009, Werth had 300 plate appearances with men on base, and 376 plate appearances with the bases empty.  With men on base, Werth hit .265 with 15 home runs and 10 doubles.  With the bases empty, he hit .270 with 21 home runs and 16 doubles.

Among Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Werth, and Shane Victorino, Werth is the only one who did not perform better with men on base than he did with the bases empty in 2009.

In 2010, it has been more of the same: Werth is hitting .306 with a .912 OPS with the bases empty, and he is hitting .242 with an .843 OPS with men on.  With runners in scoring position, he is hitting .173 with a .676 OPS!

Consider also that the Philadelphia Phillies are a left-handing hitting team and they see lots of matchups against left-handed pitchers to counter that.  This plays right into Werth’s wheelhouse, and in 2009 14 of his 36 home runs came against left-handed pitchers in just 188 plate appearances.

Fact is, Werth is replaceable.  For one thing, the Phillies have Werth’s replacement in Triple-A right now in the form of Domonic Brown.  After hitting very well in Double-A, Brown is simply shredding Triple-A to the tune of a .392 batting average and a 1.104 OPS with four home runs, 12 RBI, and nine runs scored in 14 games.

Brown, of course, is a left-handed hitter, and much has been made of Werth’s value as a right-handed hitter.  But when did right-handed hitting become scarce?  General Managers foam at the mouth at the idea of left-handed hitter; right-handed hitters are a dime-a-dozen.

At the end of the day, the Phillies cannot seriously be entertaining the idea of giving Werth a big-time contract to prevent him from hitting free agency.  With the amount of money being dedicated to the Phillies’ top players, and with the Phillies needs in the starting rotation and bullpen, giving big money to a right fielder would just be reckless.

But trading him wouldn’t be.

Obviously trade deadline deals are usually undertaken between contending teams and rebuilding teams, but trades between contending teams are not unheard of.

Maybe the pitching heavy Tampa Bay Rays might need another bat to make their run in the AL East.  Or perhaps the Minnesota Twins would be willing to part with some bullpen help in exchange for Michael Cuddyer’s replacement.

And then, of course, there are the non-contending teams.  I think Werth would be a great next step in Kansas City in exchange for Joakim Soria, or in Chicago in exchange for Carlos Marmol, or in Arizona in exchange for Edwin Jackson.

Or, perhaps, in Seattle, in exchange for Cliff Lee.

I don’t know where the best fit for Jayson Werth will be come trade deadline time, but I know this: The Phillies can’t afford to re-sign him, and really shouldn’t let him go without getting anything in return.

It isn’t the obvious move to make, but it is the smart one.

And the right one.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

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Philly’s Cliff Lee Debacle: Why Ruben Amaro, Jr. Is Not a Corporate Negotiator

With rumors swirling about the acquisition of perhaps the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay, Phillies fans were salivating at the 1-2-3 punch of Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels and an almost certain bid for a third consecutive trip to the World Series.

It was December 2009, and the hot stove was heating up for a team that had gone from the doldrums of the NL East basement to respectability and perennial playoff contention in the last decade.

The front office had put together a lineup stacked with homegrown talent, free agent acquisitions, and savvy trades that would give the Phillies a three-year window as favorites to play for the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Adding Halladay to an already formidable roster was as close to a sure thing in sports as a GM could hope for.

Then came the sucker punch that knocked the wind out of fans’ souls and left pundits scratching their heads.

There are few outside of the Philadelphia Phillies’ front office who would openly defend the now infamous trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners for three prospects last December.

Most analysts and writers immediately panned the trade, although it was made at the same time Roy Halladay was acquired, so the negative reaction was muted.

Although the reason to trade Lee made some logical sense—Ruben Amaro, Jr. cited the need to restock his depleted farm system and the fact that Lee was going to test the open market once he became a free agent in the fall of 2010—it was widely reported that many of MLB’s GMs were not aware that Lee was on the market and that the Phillies could have acquired a much better package for Lee had they performed their due diligence.

Hence, one of the chief rules of negotiation was ignored: Know your market value.

A savvy businessman doesn’t go into negotiations without researching the market, whether it be to determine his own worth if he is negotiating an employment contract or a product’s worth if he is negotiating a sale.

No one can as yet predict the outcome of the trade that netted Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez.

However, one can question the reasoning behind trading a proven top-tier asset without determining his market value by offering his services to multiple teams and letting the laws of supply and demand set the market for the trade.

It was no secret that Halladay was the object of desire for one Ruben Amaro, Jr. Having failed to acquire Halladay at the trade deadline from the Toronto Blue Jays in July of 2009, Ruben had his sights set on adding the pitcher many consider to be the most dominant in baseball.

The media knew it, baseball fans knew it, and most importantly, the Toronto Blue Jays knew it.

What was also important was that Seattle’s GM, Jack Zduriencik, knew that the Phillies were after Roy Halladay and that Amaro was willing to part with Lee should the Phillies be successful in making the trade with the Blue Jays.

As reported in a story on ESPN by Buster Olney, “Zduriencik’s interest peaked when Amaro, who had pushed hard to get Halladay last summer, asked Seattle’s GM, ‘If I’m able to do Halladay, would you be interested in having Cliff Lee ?'”

Here, again, two major rules of negotiation are broken: separating the people from the problem and the use of leverage.

Amaro’s obsession with obtaining Roy Halladay had clouded his objectivity. He was acting as a fan rather than a general manager, and his overall objective or goal, winning championships and maintaining a competitive roster, was clouded by his desire to obtain one asset.

At the same time, he lost his leverage in trading Cliff Lee by making it known to Seattle’s GM that he would look to trade Lee once Halladay was acquired. His leverage was further squandered by the aforementioned lack of due diligence in determining market value.

Lastly, it seems incongruous with the Phillies’ current situation to have traded Cliff Lee in order to replenish their farm system. Most of the Phillies’ starters are 30 or older, and there is a general consensus that age and contract status will limit the Phillies to only a few more years of competing at the highest levels before having to rebuild.

Since the opportunity to be competitive enough to play for the World Series only comes so often, one would think that the front office would place as many eggs in this particular basket considering this limited window.

And so here the Phillies are again, approaching midseason in need of another starting pitcher due to inconsistent play from Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick and an extended DL trip for J.A. Happ. Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez have either been hurt or underperforming thus far and will not be considered as trade chips to acquire a top-tier pitcher before the deadline.

Will Amaro admit his mistake and sacrifice more for Cliff Lee now than he received in return last December, or will the Phillies squander an opportunity for an historic run at another World Series?

Only Ruben knows.

This time he should keep it that way.

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Home Run Derby Lineup: The Top 10 Sluggers in the Game Today

What does it mean to be a “slugger?” We all know the answer, don’t we?

Being a slugger means gripping it and ripping it. It means hitting the crap out of the ball and not even waiting around to see where it falls.

It means pointing to a spot in center field and then hitting it there. It means putting dents in signs. It means splashing down in McCovey Cove. It means hitting a ball in Cincinnati that comes to rest in Kentucky.

Being a slugger means being the most powerful, terrifying, and exhilarating species of professional athlete in all of sports.

In honor of the 2010 State Farm Home Run Derby, whose lineup was announced on Tuesday, here is the list of the Top 10 Sluggers in Baseball.

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Phillies Announce Minor League Player, Pitcher of the Month for June.

Switch-hitting second base prospect Harold Garcia of the Clearwater Threshers has been named the Philadelphia Phillies Minor League Player of the Month for June 2010. Matthew Way of the Lakewood BlueClaws has been named the Phillies’ Minor League Pitcher of the Month.

Garcia, who to this point in his career has not had a lot of pop in his bat, had an explosive month during which he batted .370 with eight doubles, two triples, and two home runs. He collected 22 RBI and 13 runs scored and stole 10 bases in 13 attempts for the High-A Threshers.

Garcia is batting .335 with a .492 slugging percentage and an .889 OPS. He has hit safely in 43 of 46 games after beginning the season in extended spring training before joining Clearwater on May 16th.

Garcia is a switch-hitting second baseman who stands at 5’11” and 165 pounds. While any thought of Garcia joining the big club before 2012 is out of the question, Garcia will be worth a look down the road.

Matthew Way, the Phillies fifth-round selection a year ago out of Washington State University, was electric in the month of June, going 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA in four starts for the Single-A BlueClaws. Way had 21 strikeouts and nine walks in 27.1 innings while allowing an opponents batting average of only 1.65.

At 23 years old, the 6’1″ left-hander is developing nicely, and the Phillies would like to see him major league ready sooner rather than later. His performance in June represents a significant turnaround from his earlier season performance. He is now 7-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 14 starts with the BlueClaws this season.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

 

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Philadelphia Phillies Face Off Against Braves, Reds in Crucial Homestand

Finding the right words to describe the importance of the Philadelphia Phillies first half-ending home stand against the NL East leading Atlanta Braves and the NL West leading Cincinnati Reds is vexing.  

Facing off against two of the top teams in the National League right before the All-Star Break is obviously important, but how important?

To use the words “must-win” in this situation would be, for all intents and purposes, wildly inappropriate.  Forget, for the moment, the old adage that anything that can be done in the first half of the season can be undone in the second half.  And forget for the moment that this is a team playing without one of its starting pitchers and its All-Star second and third basemen.

In 2007, the Philadelphia Phillies came all the way back from being seven games behind the New York Mets with two weeks to play to win the NL East.

Thus, to say that the Phillies “must win” these two series against the Braves and Reds in order to have a chance to make the playoffs in 2010 would be a hyperbole.

On the other hand, let’s not pretend that the Phillies can easily afford to lose either or both of these series.  

The prohibitive pre-season favorites for their third straight World Series run in 2010, the Phillies are currently in third place in their own division and are not playing the best ball they’ve played during the tenure of manager Charlie Manuel.

If the Philadelphia Phillies are going to be a playoff and/or NL East contender this season—more importantly, if they are going to believe that they are a contender—then a home stand against two of the top three teams in the National League is the perfect opportunity to demonstrate that fact conclusively to the NL, to Phillies fans, and perhaps even to themselves.

At the end of the day, it is probably appropriate to say that the Phillies three-game series against the Braves and four-game series against the Reds are both crucial.

Forget for the moment about the straight-up game advantage that the Braves will gain with any win against the Phillies and lose with any loss.  This will be the Phillies’ final home stand against the Braves until the third week of September.  If the Phillies can take this series, or for that matter sweep this series, the Phillies can play the second half of the season confident that they are battling a beatable opponent in the NL East.

And then, of course, there is the game advantage.  You don’t want to be giving away home games against divisional opponents, particularly those you are locked into battle with.

As for the four game set against the Reds, that series will be all about momentum.  Enough can not be said about the momentum boost that winning a four game series would give the Phillies going into the All-Star Break.  Winning three-of-four from the Reds would be just the confidence-builder this team needs to go into the All-Star Break feeling good about the first half of the season and focused on the second.

This team needs to believe that it can play with the best teams in baseball, and there is no better way to convince itself of that then by playing good ball here at the end of the first half.

Thus, it can safely be said that this is a crucial home stand for the Philadelphia Phillies.  Not that the Phillies must win these games, but they can ill-afford to lose them.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

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