2010 NLCS Preview and Prediction: Phillies Win NLCS in Six-Game Stunner

We all know, and will be reminded again throughout the NLCS, about the greatness of Roy Halladay and the precision of Roy Oswalt.

Experts and baseball analysts will pound it into your head how prominent the Phillies 1-2-3 punch is on the mound. My two-year-old nephew knows they are good.

The dynamic duo acquired in highly publicized trades before and during the season have allowed Ruben Amaro Jr. to enjoy his Monet moment. He, after all, helped create these October masterpieces.

As for San Francisco’s late-season transaction, their guy was an afterthought. He was page-two news on a front page bursting with big names and blockbuster deals that transpired during baseball’s 2010 season.

This wasn’t Cliff Lee to Seattle or Texas. Brian Cashman doesn’t bother with guys making under $5 million. A team wouldn’t sacrifice a prospect to gain his services in return. He’s not going to throw a no-hitter this October nor steal Derek Jeter‘s postseason moniker anytime soon.

Maybe you know his name, maybe you don’t.

Cody Ross was placed on waivers by the Florida Marlins in late August. A couple days later he was claimed by the Giants whose reported intention was to blockade divisional foe San Diego from adding him rather than bolster their own lineup. San Fran, at the time, really didn’t have a place for him in the outfield.

Ross was simply a pawn in the playoff chase chess game out West.

 

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NLCS 1001 Simulations of Best-of-Seven Series
Matchup	Win%	4-Games%	5-Games%	6-Games%	7-Games%
San Francisco	33	2	8	10	13
Philadelphia	66	12	17	21	16

Using our MLB simulation engine we “played” the NLCS Best-of-seven series 1,001 times.

In the table above you will find each team’s chances of advancing to the World Series and how often they win in four, five, six or seven games. As you can see, the most likely scenario is the Phillies beating the Giants in six games 21 percent of the time.

You can view the box scores and summaries of Philadelphia’s six-game series win below.

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This is nothing new for the well-traveled fifth-year veteran who has traded his Dodgers blues for Cincinnati red and Florida fish all in the same season.

But where it started, is where I started, back in 2003 with the Toledo Mud Hens. Cody played while I interned. Ross was a major part of the Tigers’ Triple-A offense that season.

He banged out 135 hits, 20 home runs, 61 ribbies and hit .287 for Toledo earning him a September call-up where he played in six games for the Tigs.

The Mud Hens fanbase truly embraced Cody in ’03. He even reached the pinnacle of having the franchise create and promote his bobblehead.

That’s respect.

“Cody Ross quickly became a fan favorite during his time in Toledo,” public relations director and Mud Hens broadcaster Jason Griffin said. “It was evident very early that he was destined to be a quality major leaguer. It is fun to watch him do well in the playoffs.”

We fast-forward seven years, past the trades for players to be named and get over the Giants’ chess match with the Padres and focus on what Ross has meant to this San Fran team five games into the postseason.

Batting eighth in Game 1 of the NLDS, he reached base twice and collected one of only five Giants hits. It proved to be a big one because his single to left drove in the only run of the game.

Then in Game 4, when Derek Lowe once again looked unhittable, Ross provided the offensive punch his team needed. Trailing 1-0 in the sixth, the guy hitting before the pitcher smacked a solo shot to left to tie the game at 1-1.

Ross wasn’t done.

An inning later, after the Giants rallied to tie the game at 3-3, Ross delivered again with a single scoring the go-ahead and eventual game-winning run.

Talk about your pawn stars.

It should be noted the Marlins were interested in keeping Ross, but the front office was engrossed in promoting outfielder Cameron Maybin to get him some playing time when the rosters expanded.

So, in a way, Ross has Maybin to thank for his opportunity this October.

And, in a weird twist, Ross and Maybin both have the Tigers to thank for drafting them.

It’s transactional irony worthy of the front page.

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Below is a game-by-game summary and related box score of our simulation’s predicted results.

Game 1 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Giants	5	13	1	Box Score
Phillies	3	10	0	Simulate Game

WP: Tim Lincecum LP: Roy Halladay

Player of the Game: Tim Lincecum: 8 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 7 K

NLCS Boppers
Player	HRs in NLCS (Avg.)
Burrell	1.3
Howard	1.1
Werth	1.0

 

Tim Lincecum has been known to do it with his arm, but with his stick?

In 246 career at-bats, “The Freak” has never hit a home run for the Giants. That was until he went deep in Game 1’s simulation of the NLCS. The chances of a Lincecum long-ball are so rare I won’t waste your time with all the zeroes following the decimal.

To make the feat even greater, the Giants’ No. 1 starter hit the homer in the top of the eighth inning to give his team a 5-3 lead. Some good wood to match his lights-out effort on the mound, allowing three ERs in eight innings.

Roy Halladay lasted seven innings allowing four earn runs on 11 hits. It was a far cry from his dominant performance against the Reds in the NLDS.

The Giants break serve and take Game 1 of the NLCS winning 5-3.

 

Game 2 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Giants	3	6	0	Box Score
Phillies	2	7	0	Simulate Game

WP: Matt Cain LP: Cole Hamels

Player of the Game: Matt Cain: 9 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 9 K

 

We knew the pitching matchups in this series would be worth the price of admission.

Okay, maybe not. But we were hip to the fact that hitters would play second fiddle to the hurlers.

Matt Cain would go the distance, while Cole Hamels’ five walks would come back to haunt him in Game 2.

Juan Uribe‘s ground-rule double in the sixth tacked on an insurance run the Giants would need in the ninth.

Cain, cruising to that point, allowed Ryan Howard to take him deep. The solo shot cut the San Fran lead to one, but MC finished what he started and got pinch-hitter Mike Sweeney to fly out and end it.

The Giants take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series as both teams head to the West Coast.

Game 3 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Phillies	5	12	0	Simulate Game
Giants	1	4	0	Box Score

WP: Roy Oswalt LP: Jonathan Sanchez

Player of the Game: Roy Oswalt: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 12 K

NLCS Top BA
Player	BA in NLCS (Avg.)
Polanco	.299
Ruiz	.298
Werth	.295

 

The Phillies found themselves in one of those must-win situations.

Roy Oswalt answered the call. Boy, I’m sure Charlie Manuel is stoked (as stoked as Manuel can get) that Ruben Amaro Jr. pulled the trigger with the Astros to bring the stud pitcher to Philly.

Oswalt went eight strong, striking out 12, while only allowing one Giants runner to cross home.

San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez got roughed up in Game 3 serving up five earned runs in his eight innings on the hill.

Chase Utley was the main dude at the plate for the Phillies going 3-5 with two RBI.

Philadelphia has life in the NLCS winning Game 3, 5-1.

 

Game 4 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Phillies	6	11	0	Simulate Game
Giants	0	6	1	Box Score

WP: Roy Halladay LP: Madison Bumgarner

Player of the Game: Roy Halladay: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 10 K

 

The Giants elected to start the rookie in Game 4 against Roy Halladay. Now, they may be regretting it.

Bumgarner couldn’t get out of the fifth inning before he allowed six runs on nine hits.

That’s all Roy Halladay would need to bounce back from a rough outing in Game 1. Though he did allow five hits, the Phillies ace did not give up a run in his eight innings of work.

Jose Contreras came on in the ninth to seal up the 6-0 victory.

Jimmy Rollins provided the offense with his 2-4, three RBI and HR effort at the dish.

The Phillies break back to even the series at two all heading into Game 5.

 

Game 5 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Phillies	7	15	0	Simulate Game
Giants	2	10	0	Box Score

WP: Cole Hamels LP: Tim Lincecum

Player of the Game: Cole Hamels: 8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 5 K

NLCS Top ERA
Player	ERA in NLCS (Avg.)
Oswalt	2.80
Halladay	3.41
Lincecum	4.20

 

Except for a turbulent bottom of the third, Cole Hamels was a San Francisco treat to watch.

The Phillies took a commanding 3-2 series lead behind the southpaw’s eight innings of work. Although he did allow nine hits on the evening, Hamels controlled the bleeding by holding the Giants to two runs.

Tim Lincecum and the Giants fell behind 4-0 in the first and could never recover. Sergio Romo allowed three more runs in relief to hand the away team a 7-2 win.

The Phillies now return to Philly up 3-2 and in prime position to close out the NLCS in front of a home crowd.

 

Game 6 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Giants	3	6	0	Box Score
Phillies	4	8	1	Simulate Game

WP: Brad Lidge LP: Brian Wilson

Player of the Game: Placido Polanco: GW RBI in bottom of ninth

 

The guy with the best batting average in the series picked the right time to collect his first hit of the night.

Placido Polanco’s bottom-of-the-ninth single to right off Giants closer Brian Wilson sent Carlos Ruiz home as the Phillies win the NLCS in dramatic fashion.

The Phillies head to the World Series with a 4-3 win over the Giants.

Moments prior to Polanco’s game-winner, Giants manager Bruce Bochy was ejected from the game for arguing a ball four call to Shane Victorino. The walk sent Ruiz to third.

The Giants did own a 3-2 lead in the eighth, but Jimmy Rollins connected off of reliever Ramon Ramirez sending a single to right and knocking in Chase Utley to tie the game.

Brad Lidge, seeing his first action of the series, struck out the side in the top of the ninth before the drama unfolded in the ninth.

The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies are headed to the World Series with a 4-2 series win over the San Francisco Giants.

Check out the ALCS preview from WhatIfSports.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com