ALCS and NLCS: Roy Halladay Not the Only Giant Left

Well, I went 4-0 with my AL and NL Division Series picks. I was a little nervous about picking the Rangers over the Rays and the Giants over the Braves, but in the end, everything ended how I expected.

On my twitter account (@TheOLIB) I tweeted that I expected the Giants to take the World Series entering the first day of the postseason.

I made this decision based on the pitching of the Giants and while Roy Halladay is getting all the press after his no-hitter, with people going as far as ranking him among the best right-handers of all time (something I disagree with and will write about at a later date) I still feel as though the Giants one-two-three of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez is superior to the Phils one-two-three, not to mention I prefer the Giants bullpen.

Where the Phillies have some fortune is going up against a lot of right-handed pitchers, only four of the Giants active pitchers pitch from the wrong side with essentially nothing in the end game. That being said, I would anticipate seeing a lot of Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez during this series and a little less Santiago “what’s my name” Casilla—even though Casilla has looked incredible this season.

I still have the Giants taking this series in what should go the distance. Hopefully, this series has Lincecum winning a couple of games head-to-head against Halladay which will remind people that while Doc has been a phenomenal pitcher for his career, his timing is what truly makes his career stand out (pre-Schilling, post-Hernandez/Lincecum dominance).

Over in the American League I’m going with the Yankees taking the Rangers. I’m taking this one based on strategy—not so much the strategy of having Cliff Lee heading to the bump for Game 3, but for sending C.J. Wilson out there for Game 1.

I would have conceded Game 1 and went for back-to-back wins without C.C. Sabathia on the hill. That is, Wilson is essentially going to have to out-pitch Sabathia to win Game 1, not an easy task facing any group of hitters, but against the Yanks, it is much more difficult.

Additionally, this is a possible seven-game series where a shaky bullpen is that much more vulnerable, especially against experienced hitters that are solid at putting the ball in play.

With all the Yankees hitters up to full speed, it’s doubtful the Rangers will have an easy inning towards the end of the game. That said, I see this one ending in five, maybe six with experts blaming it on Washington for the wrong reason (Lee) rather than the rotation configuration as a whole.

So again, Yankees over the Rangers in the ALCS and Giants over the Phillies in the NLCS with the Giants taking home the World Series.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2010 ALCS Preview: Yankees or Rangers? Who Do Phillies Fans Root For?

Sports Irreverence and More from the Other Tip of the Goldberg

Being a huge sports fan, I don’t need to bet on games (I’m too destitute these days, anyway) to relish the action.  A rooting interest does help matters, though.

Which brings me to tonight and the start of the Yankees-Rangers ALCS.  I’ve been following the Phillies forever, but I am torn as to which team to support. 

Do I root for the mighty Yankees, even though it’s anathema for most Philly guys to ever root for a New York team?  Make that a New York anything.

Do I cheer for Texas?  They are the underdogs, and I was taught to never root for an overdog, unless my team is an overdog.  And yes, the Phillies are certainly overdogs versus the Giants in the NLCS.

One more note before working out this dilemma in public.  I should not tempt fate by thinking too far ahead and assuming future prosperity, especially in Philly.  Even if some of us were too young to have lived through it, we are still jinxed and scarred by the “Philly Phade” of the 1964 team and other unforgettable collapses by local heroes in all four major sports.

For the purposes of this column—and I’ve already picked the Phillies in six over the Giants—I don’t accept that I may be jinxing them.  I don’t play for or manage the Phils, and indeed, I don’t draw a paycheck from them or from anyone else these days, for that matter. 

Which means, on to my dilemma (other than being broke). 

 

Reasons to Root for the Rangers:

• The Rangers are the underdogs.  They just notched their first postseason series victory in franchise history on Tuesday, while the Yankees are defending champions and winner of 27 of these championships.  Plus, the Yanks had the better record this year in a better division and boast a much higher payroll.

• The Rangers have my favorite pitcher, Cliff Lee.  Yes, he was only in Philly for a few months and may only be in Texas that long, but many Phillies fans fell in love with the guy.  In a platonic baseball kind of way, of course.  It helped ease the pain when Roy Oswalt came over from Houston, Cole Hamels became the 2008 postseason Hamels and H2O was unleashed.

By the way, to the best of my knowledge, the origin of H2O as the nickname for Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt was right here.

(Excuse the above digression. I just wish I had put H2O on a T-shirt.  Would that make it a wet T-shirt?  Have we saturated the topic?)

• Oh yeah, the Rangers figure to be an easier opponent to beat than the Yankees.

• We would not have to face that ageless, peerless Mariano Rivera guy; we’ll take our chances with the youthful Neftali Feliz.

Four pretty good reasons.  So, why am I tempted to root for the Yankees?

 

Reasons to Root for the Yankees

• They’re not all that detestable.  Yes, it’s hard to like A-Rod and it’s hard to like the overwhelmingly haughty Yankees fans, but does anyone really hate Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, two of the classiest winners in the sport?

• “W” used to be an owner of the Rangers and is still associated with that franchise.  Not to hold a grudge, but…

• We would not have to face Cliff Lee.  Yes, we have Halladay, who may more than neutralize the guy, but right now Cliff Lee is the best big-game pitcher on the planet.  And, it would be hard to bring myself to root against him.  Not to hold unrequited man-love for the guy, but…

• Revenge.  Simply put, it would be sweeter to beat the “Evil Empire,” which happens to be the team that beat us in the World Series last year.

As of right now, I’m leaning toward rooting for the Yankees, but only because I think it’s the Phillies’ year no matter who they play.  Let’s go out and prove it against the best.

This may all change if there is an injury or if my confidence wanes ever so slightly for any reason.

And it may change when that cool cat wearing No. 33 (I guess Nolan Ryan had dibs on 34) takes the hill for the Rangers.

One thing I do know: I’m psyched beyond reason to see Halladay v. Lincecum kick off the NLCS tomorrow night.  As for those AL pretenders, let them deal with the two-time defending NL champions, H2O, the semi-articulate magical genius that is manager Charlie Manuel, and the Phillies home-field advantage.

I do profess to know the team that Rangers Nation (if there is one) and Yankees Nation would prefer to face, and they don’t play in South Philly.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

NLCS 2010: 5 Bold Predictions

The Phillies are back in the NLCS for the third straight year and are looking for their third straight National League Pennant. The Giants are back in the Championship Series for the first time since 2002 and will look to finish the job this time.

Will pitching rule again or will the bats finally break out? Here are five bold predictions for the NLCS. 

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2010 NLCS: Another Fall Double-Header in Philadelphia

At 1:00 PM on Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Atlanta Falcons at Lincoln Financial Field. 

At 8:00 PM that same day, the Philadelphia Phillies will play the San Francisco Giants in Game 2 of the NLCS. 

The city of Philadelphia is growing accustomed to these Fall double-headers, featuring the Eagles and Phillies.  Twice during Philadelphia’s World Series runs in 2008 and 2009, the Eagles and Phillies have played on the same day at their home fields. 

This Sunday should bring back memories to Philadelphia fans.  Both good and bad.  

Will the history of these double-headers in Philadelphia repeat itself this Sunday? 

 

Double-Header 2009

On November 1st, 2009, a war between New York City and Philadelphia took place.

Last year, the Eagles hosted the New York Giants in an early afternoon game, the same day of Game 4 of the 2009 World Series between the Yankees and the Phillies.   

The Eagles, many would say, upset the Giants that Sunday and won the game in a blowout, 40-17.  Donovan McNabb threw for three touchdowns while Philadelphia’s defense forced four turnovers.  

The Eagles moved to 5-2 on the season and NFC East title was in their sights…

It was a good start to the day, but the Phillies had lost Game 3 the previous night and now trailed in the series 2-1.  Could Joe Blanton shut down the New York Yankees lineup later that night?    

Let’s just say New York lost the battle, but went on to win the war. 

The Phillies trailed for most of the game, but managed to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth on a Pedro Feliz home run.  Then Brad Lidge entered the game in the top of ninth and was one strike away from pitching a scoreless inning.  A Johnny Damon single, two stolen bases, and an A-Rod single would give the Yankees the lead, as New York would score three runs in the ninth.  

That game pretty much wrapped up another World Series title for the Yankees.  

 

Double-Header 2008 

This Sunday would be a much better day for Philadelphia fans.  

On October 26th, 2008, the Eagles played the Atlanta Falcons, an appetizer before Game 4 of the World Series. 

Brian Westbrook was the star of the game, rushing for 167 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles defense forced the inexperienced Matt Ryan to throw two costly interceptions as Philadelphia would go on to win the game 27-14.   

Heading into Game 4, the Philadelphia Phillies led the series 2-1, so this was crucial game for the Tampa Bay Rays. They decided to put Andy Sonnanstine on the mound.  

The Phillies crushed the Rays, winning 10-2 and taking a commanding 3-1 series lead.  Sonnanstine would only last four innings and give up three earned runs, including a based-loaded walk in the first inning.  

Ryan Howard was an absolute monster: two HRs, five RBI and four runs.

Philadelphia fans knew things were going their way when pitcher Joe Blanton hit a home run in the fifth inning.  

 

Double-Header 2010? 

So what will happen this Sunday in Philadelphia?  How many fans will be in the parking lots from 11 in the morning until 11 at night? 

History bodes well for the Eagles.  They are 2-0 in the double-headers, winning by double digits on both occasions. 

History also bodes well for the Philadelphia Phillies.  Why exactly? 

In 2008, the Eagles hosted the Atlanta Falcons.  After their win, the Eagles and Falcons both had the same record, 4-3.

In 2010, the Eagles will host the Falcons once again.  After the Eagles win, they will have the same record as the Falcons.  Both teams will be 4-2.

Coincidence? I think not.  

Sunday will go down in history as another great day for Philadelphia sports.

 

Looking Ahead 

If the Philadelphia Phillies advance to the World Series, Game 1 will be at 7:57 PM on Wednesday, October 27th. 

It is the same night as the Philadelphia 76ers’ home opener, which is scheduled for 7:00 PM.  Not a big deal?  Wrong. 

It is the debut of Evan Turner and not to mention, some team called the Miami Heat. 

Will the 76ers management be rooting for the San Francisco Giants?

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

NLCS 2010: 10 Reasons Roy Halladay Will Be NLCS MVP

With the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants ready to get the 2010 NLCS underway Saturday night, the Phillies are the heavy favorites. San Francisco beat a fiercer first-round foe than did Charlie Manuel’s club, but the Phillies are a full-fledged National League dynasty. They will attempt to reach their third straight World Series this fall, after already having claimed their fourth straight division title.

This year’s team may have the best shot at winning it all—even though they actually did win it all in 2008. The 2010 Phillies have balance unlike those before them, with a three-headed monster atop their starting rotation that looks to be unmatched by any team still standing.

The ace of that staff, of course, is right-hander Roy Halladay. Halladay no-hit Cincinnati in the first round, but that tells only a part of the story of his historic debut season in the National League.

That campaign has also seen him throw a perfect game (against Florida in May), win a league-high 21 games (finishing nine of them and shutting out the opponent four times, also NL bests), top 250 innings and set new career high-water marks for strikeouts and walks per nine frames–all at the age of 33. If he was not a Hall of Fame pitcher to begin this season, he may be a Cooperstown shoo-in now.

Assuming (and it seems a safe assumption) that Halladay will get a chance to make two starts in the NLCS, the Phillies ought to win, and Halladay (in his very first opportunity to earn a postseason award) has a very real chance to be NLCS MVP. Here are 10 reasons Doc will be crowned king of the NLCS.

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NLCS 2010: 10 Things To Watch For in The Phillies vs. Giants Series

Another day has come and gone, and still no baseball. We hear that there will be a National League Championship Series played soon, but we are beginning to have our doubts. The NLCS allegedly starts on Saturday. We’ll see.

In the meantime, as we continue to prepare to watch baseball, here are some more things to think about ahead of Game 1.

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NLCS Preview: Five Questions for Phillies-Giants

The 2010 NLCS begins this Saturday in Philadelphia between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants. Both teams bring impressive pitching rotations into the series, highlighted by the Game 1 match-up between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum.

Impressive hardly describes each of their first postseason starts during the NLDS.

Halladay, in the first postseason start of his career no less, no-hit the best hitting team in the National League, the Cincinnati Reds, and Lincecum threw a 2 hit, 14k, complete game against the Atlanta Braves. With Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt looking to take the ball for the Phillies and Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain behind Lincecum for the Giants, the match-up between these two teams is all about pitching.

That being said, neither team is without issue. Here are 5 questions heading into the National League Championship Series:

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2010 NLCS: Looking Back at the Phillies-Giants Regular Season Series

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants split their season series this year, 3-3.

In order to better preview the NLCS, it is important to look at each of those six games. 

Which pitchers dominated?  Were the Phillies able to hit Lincecum? Were the Giants able to hit Halladay? 

Game 1: Lincecum vs. Halladay.  It is a matchup that baseball enthusiasts dream of.   

Game 2: Sanchez vs. Oswalt.  

Sanchez has earned two wins against the Phillies this year, but how well did he actually pitch? 

Here is a breakdown of the six regular season games between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants.  It should give us a better picture of how the NLCS will play out.  

Begin Slideshow

2010 NLCS Preview and Prediction: Phillies Win NLCS in Six-Game Stunner

We all know, and will be reminded again throughout the NLCS, about the greatness of Roy Halladay and the precision of Roy Oswalt.

Experts and baseball analysts will pound it into your head how prominent the Phillies 1-2-3 punch is on the mound. My two-year-old nephew knows they are good.

The dynamic duo acquired in highly publicized trades before and during the season have allowed Ruben Amaro Jr. to enjoy his Monet moment. He, after all, helped create these October masterpieces.

As for San Francisco’s late-season transaction, their guy was an afterthought. He was page-two news on a front page bursting with big names and blockbuster deals that transpired during baseball’s 2010 season.

This wasn’t Cliff Lee to Seattle or Texas. Brian Cashman doesn’t bother with guys making under $5 million. A team wouldn’t sacrifice a prospect to gain his services in return. He’s not going to throw a no-hitter this October nor steal Derek Jeter‘s postseason moniker anytime soon.

Maybe you know his name, maybe you don’t.

Cody Ross was placed on waivers by the Florida Marlins in late August. A couple days later he was claimed by the Giants whose reported intention was to blockade divisional foe San Diego from adding him rather than bolster their own lineup. San Fran, at the time, really didn’t have a place for him in the outfield.

Ross was simply a pawn in the playoff chase chess game out West.

 

Story continues below

NLCS 1001 Simulations of Best-of-Seven Series
Matchup	Win%	4-Games%	5-Games%	6-Games%	7-Games%
San Francisco	33	2	8	10	13
Philadelphia	66	12	17	21	16

Using our MLB simulation engine we “played” the NLCS Best-of-seven series 1,001 times.

In the table above you will find each team’s chances of advancing to the World Series and how often they win in four, five, six or seven games. As you can see, the most likely scenario is the Phillies beating the Giants in six games 21 percent of the time.

You can view the box scores and summaries of Philadelphia’s six-game series win below.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

This is nothing new for the well-traveled fifth-year veteran who has traded his Dodgers blues for Cincinnati red and Florida fish all in the same season.

But where it started, is where I started, back in 2003 with the Toledo Mud Hens. Cody played while I interned. Ross was a major part of the Tigers’ Triple-A offense that season.

He banged out 135 hits, 20 home runs, 61 ribbies and hit .287 for Toledo earning him a September call-up where he played in six games for the Tigs.

The Mud Hens fanbase truly embraced Cody in ’03. He even reached the pinnacle of having the franchise create and promote his bobblehead.

That’s respect.

“Cody Ross quickly became a fan favorite during his time in Toledo,” public relations director and Mud Hens broadcaster Jason Griffin said. “It was evident very early that he was destined to be a quality major leaguer. It is fun to watch him do well in the playoffs.”

We fast-forward seven years, past the trades for players to be named and get over the Giants’ chess match with the Padres and focus on what Ross has meant to this San Fran team five games into the postseason.

Batting eighth in Game 1 of the NLDS, he reached base twice and collected one of only five Giants hits. It proved to be a big one because his single to left drove in the only run of the game.

Then in Game 4, when Derek Lowe once again looked unhittable, Ross provided the offensive punch his team needed. Trailing 1-0 in the sixth, the guy hitting before the pitcher smacked a solo shot to left to tie the game at 1-1.

Ross wasn’t done.

An inning later, after the Giants rallied to tie the game at 3-3, Ross delivered again with a single scoring the go-ahead and eventual game-winning run.

Talk about your pawn stars.

It should be noted the Marlins were interested in keeping Ross, but the front office was engrossed in promoting outfielder Cameron Maybin to get him some playing time when the rosters expanded.

So, in a way, Ross has Maybin to thank for his opportunity this October.

And, in a weird twist, Ross and Maybin both have the Tigers to thank for drafting them.

It’s transactional irony worthy of the front page.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Below is a game-by-game summary and related box score of our simulation’s predicted results.

Game 1 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Giants	5	13	1	Box Score
Phillies	3	10	0	Simulate Game

WP: Tim Lincecum LP: Roy Halladay

Player of the Game: Tim Lincecum: 8 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 7 K

NLCS Boppers
Player	HRs in NLCS (Avg.)
Burrell	1.3
Howard	1.1
Werth	1.0

 

Tim Lincecum has been known to do it with his arm, but with his stick?

In 246 career at-bats, “The Freak” has never hit a home run for the Giants. That was until he went deep in Game 1’s simulation of the NLCS. The chances of a Lincecum long-ball are so rare I won’t waste your time with all the zeroes following the decimal.

To make the feat even greater, the Giants’ No. 1 starter hit the homer in the top of the eighth inning to give his team a 5-3 lead. Some good wood to match his lights-out effort on the mound, allowing three ERs in eight innings.

Roy Halladay lasted seven innings allowing four earn runs on 11 hits. It was a far cry from his dominant performance against the Reds in the NLDS.

The Giants break serve and take Game 1 of the NLCS winning 5-3.

 

Game 2 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Giants	3	6	0	Box Score
Phillies	2	7	0	Simulate Game

WP: Matt Cain LP: Cole Hamels

Player of the Game: Matt Cain: 9 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 9 K

 

We knew the pitching matchups in this series would be worth the price of admission.

Okay, maybe not. But we were hip to the fact that hitters would play second fiddle to the hurlers.

Matt Cain would go the distance, while Cole Hamels’ five walks would come back to haunt him in Game 2.

Juan Uribe‘s ground-rule double in the sixth tacked on an insurance run the Giants would need in the ninth.

Cain, cruising to that point, allowed Ryan Howard to take him deep. The solo shot cut the San Fran lead to one, but MC finished what he started and got pinch-hitter Mike Sweeney to fly out and end it.

The Giants take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series as both teams head to the West Coast.

Game 3 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Phillies	5	12	0	Simulate Game
Giants	1	4	0	Box Score

WP: Roy Oswalt LP: Jonathan Sanchez

Player of the Game: Roy Oswalt: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 12 K

NLCS Top BA
Player	BA in NLCS (Avg.)
Polanco	.299
Ruiz	.298
Werth	.295

 

The Phillies found themselves in one of those must-win situations.

Roy Oswalt answered the call. Boy, I’m sure Charlie Manuel is stoked (as stoked as Manuel can get) that Ruben Amaro Jr. pulled the trigger with the Astros to bring the stud pitcher to Philly.

Oswalt went eight strong, striking out 12, while only allowing one Giants runner to cross home.

San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez got roughed up in Game 3 serving up five earned runs in his eight innings on the hill.

Chase Utley was the main dude at the plate for the Phillies going 3-5 with two RBI.

Philadelphia has life in the NLCS winning Game 3, 5-1.

 

Game 4 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Phillies	6	11	0	Simulate Game
Giants	0	6	1	Box Score

WP: Roy Halladay LP: Madison Bumgarner

Player of the Game: Roy Halladay: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 10 K

 

The Giants elected to start the rookie in Game 4 against Roy Halladay. Now, they may be regretting it.

Bumgarner couldn’t get out of the fifth inning before he allowed six runs on nine hits.

That’s all Roy Halladay would need to bounce back from a rough outing in Game 1. Though he did allow five hits, the Phillies ace did not give up a run in his eight innings of work.

Jose Contreras came on in the ninth to seal up the 6-0 victory.

Jimmy Rollins provided the offense with his 2-4, three RBI and HR effort at the dish.

The Phillies break back to even the series at two all heading into Game 5.

 

Game 5 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Phillies	7	15	0	Simulate Game
Giants	2	10	0	Box Score

WP: Cole Hamels LP: Tim Lincecum

Player of the Game: Cole Hamels: 8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 5 K

NLCS Top ERA
Player	ERA in NLCS (Avg.)
Oswalt	2.80
Halladay	3.41
Lincecum	4.20

 

Except for a turbulent bottom of the third, Cole Hamels was a San Francisco treat to watch.

The Phillies took a commanding 3-2 series lead behind the southpaw’s eight innings of work. Although he did allow nine hits on the evening, Hamels controlled the bleeding by holding the Giants to two runs.

Tim Lincecum and the Giants fell behind 4-0 in the first and could never recover. Sergio Romo allowed three more runs in relief to hand the away team a 7-2 win.

The Phillies now return to Philly up 3-2 and in prime position to close out the NLCS in front of a home crowd.

 

Game 6 NLCS
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Giants	3	6	0	Box Score
Phillies	4	8	1	Simulate Game

WP: Brad Lidge LP: Brian Wilson

Player of the Game: Placido Polanco: GW RBI in bottom of ninth

 

The guy with the best batting average in the series picked the right time to collect his first hit of the night.

Placido Polanco’s bottom-of-the-ninth single to right off Giants closer Brian Wilson sent Carlos Ruiz home as the Phillies win the NLCS in dramatic fashion.

The Phillies head to the World Series with a 4-3 win over the Giants.

Moments prior to Polanco’s game-winner, Giants manager Bruce Bochy was ejected from the game for arguing a ball four call to Shane Victorino. The walk sent Ruiz to third.

The Giants did own a 3-2 lead in the eighth, but Jimmy Rollins connected off of reliever Ramon Ramirez sending a single to right and knocking in Chase Utley to tie the game.

Brad Lidge, seeing his first action of the series, struck out the side in the top of the ninth before the drama unfolded in the ninth.

The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies are headed to the World Series with a 4-2 series win over the San Francisco Giants.

Check out the ALCS preview from WhatIfSports.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

NLCS Preview: Should the Philadelphia Phillies Fear the San Francisco Giants?

After dismissing the Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS, the Phillies will face off against the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS. 

Will the Giants be a minor speed bump on the road to another National League pennant, or do they have a legitimate shot at sending the Phillies home early?

Here are some arguments for both cases:

 

Fear the Giants

In theory, the teams in the NLCS are the two best the league has to offer.  Not only does a team have to survive the regular-season gauntlet to earn a playoff berth, but they must also defeat another playoff worthy team just to advance. 

The Giants won a competitive NL West division, and then dismissed the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS.  That alone marks them as a good team.  And the main reason for their success is their pitching staff.

The staff is led by Tim Lincecum, who is one of the best starters in the majors, having won the 2008 and 2009 Cy Young Awards.  By his standards, 2010 was a slightly off year, as he struggled in August leading to some “What’s wrong with Lincecum?  Is he injured?” talk.

He quickly dismissed that speculation with an outstanding stretch run, and a sterling effort in his start in the NLDS.  If he is on his game, he can be near unhittable.

The rest of the staff is impressive as well: Jonathan Sanchez is a tough left-hander, who has given the Phillies trouble in the past.  Matt Cain had an excellent year and features a good fastball.  It isn’t clear if the Giants will use a fourth starter, but if they do, it will be rookie left-hander Madison Bumgarner.  (Now that’s a great name!)  Bumgarner had a strong rookie season and excelled in his NLDS start, so he is far from a weak link.

The Giants bullpen has also performed well this year, led by closer Brian Wilson, who led the NL in saves.

Considering that the Phillies had trouble scoring runs (or at least earned runs) off of the Reds’ good but not great pitchers, what kind of success can they expect to have against the Giants pitchers?  They can’t depend on a complete breakdown by the Giants’ fielders similar to what happened to the Reds.

The long layoff between playoff series isn’t going to help the Phillies’ chances either.  Ryan Howard (one of the few Phillies who has had past success against Lincecum) didn’t have a strong NLDS, and tends to suffer after extended time off.  They’ll need him to start hitting like he did in last year’s NLCS in which he was named MVP.  The extra rest probably won’t help guys like Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez find their stroke either.

There’s a good chance that these games are going to be low-scoring affairs.  Games will likely come down to one or two plays, and in that type of situation, one fluke play can make a huge difference.  The Phillies are the better team on paper, but in close games, that doesn’t mean anything.

 

Start Planning for the World Series

While the Giants’ spot in the final four may prove that they are a good team, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they are a great team.  They won a West division in which their two closest competitors (Padres and Rockies) both collapsed badly down the stretch.  In the NLDS, they were matched against a beaten up Braves team that seemed to find ways to lose. 

So while it is nice that they have gotten this far, at some point they’ll have to prove themselves to be more than just opportunistic.

They’ll also have to find a way to hit better than they have.  If the Reds—the highest scoring team in the NL—couldn’t hit against the Phillies’ starters, what chance do the weak-hitting Giants have?

While the Giants were the only team in the majors to have beaten the Phillies starting trio of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels this season, there’s no indication that they’ll be able to do so again.  Even they don’t seem to like their chances, as I’ve heard quotes from Giants players about “needing to scrape out some runs,” and “wanting to keep things low scoring.”

If we give the Giants the edge in the potential Game 4 matchup of Fat Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner (By the way, people need to give Blanton more credit.  He didn’t have the the greatest year, but he was solid down the stretch, and has had postseason success in the past), will the Giants be able to score enough runs in three out of six starts by Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels? 

I can’t see the Giants scoring enough runs to win the series.  Who in the Giants lineup seems like a real threat?  Buster Posey had a great rookie season, but is he capable of carrying their entire offense?  Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres are solid hitters, but once again, not exactly the type to make a pitcher worry too much.

Former Phillie Pat Burrell has played well for them, and could provide some power, but as any Phillies fan can tell you, Burrell can be pitched to.

Maybe in a close game the Giants will be able to score some runs against the Phillies relievers.  But the way that the Phillies starters have pitched, their relief pitching doesn’t often even come into play.  And unlike the Braves, the Phillies late-game relief combo of Ryan Madson (MADSON!!!!) and Brad Lidge are healthy, and have been extremely effective in the second half of the season.

The Giants are also far weaker than the Phillies defensively.  Sure, their numbers might look OK because they don’t commit a lot of errors.  But that is partially due to the horrendous fielding range showed by many of their fielders.  Are the Giants capable of making the game saving defensive plays that would be necessary to win a close game?  It seems doubtful.

As for the Phillies hitters, I think they’ll do just enough damage to get the job done.  Unlike most lineups that the Giants face, the Phillies have strength all the way through.  Which means that even if Rollins and Howard are slumping, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth are capable of carrying the team.  And while the layoff might hurt the Phillies’ hitting timing, it can only help with Rollins’ sore hamstring.  If he can run at near full speed, that adds yet another element that the Giants will have to deal with.

 

My Prediction

The Giants seem like a tougher opponent than the Dodgers of 2008 and 2009.  And I don’t think that the Giants will play scared like the Reds seemed to.

But in the end, the result will be the same.  The Giants’ starters are too good for them not to win a couple games, but in the end, the Phillies will capture their third consecutive pennant.

Phillies in six.

Originally published on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

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