MLB Rumors: Are the Philadelphia Phillies Still Pursuing Jayson Werth?

Since the start of the NLDS, many insiders, beat writers and aspiring columnists all agreed that outfielder Jayson Werth was playing his last games in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform.

But now, the rumors suggest the Phillies could make a big push for Werth and actually pursue the Philadelphia mainstay.

Earlier this week, it was rumored that the Phillies had “zero chance” in bringing back Werth, but SI.com’s Jon Heyman has ‘Tweeted’ that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told the Philadelphia Inquirer he wants an answer soon, but that a quick deal is unlikely.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a couple of other little player puzzles to solve, such as their attempt to retain reliever Jose Contreras and their interest in reliever Joaquin Benoit as a possible insurance policy, but there is also another player puzzle in the mix that is directly related to Jayson Werth.

Top prospect, Domonic Brown.

In many respects, Brown is said to be a fine replacement for Jayson Werth. He’s just as tall, just as fast, seemingly just as good of an outfielder, and almost as good as a hitter.

But he isn’t Jayson Werth.

In my personal opinion, I can’t see the Phillies parting ways with Werth so long as they can stave off his junkyard dog agent Scott Boras and come to an agreeable deal.

What I can see, however, is Domonic Brown being brought up and kept in the dugout as an insurance policy for fading outfielder Raul Ibanez.

But that’s just speculation on my part.

Think of it this way: Raul Ibanez is declining and becomes a free agent in 2011. If the Phillies had an opportunity to construct an outfield with Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown and Jayson Werth, don’t you think they would try?

I know I would if I worked for the organization.

In addition to that being my lineup, I would have Ibanez as a bench player and possible DH in inter-league play, and solid trade bait at the end of the 2011 season, with a free spot to possibly bring up John Mayberry.

The Phillies have already admitted to needing a left-handed reliever more than anything, but addressing the outfield situation is also a top priority. Werth does have a nice situation in Philadelphia, in a very hitter-friendly park that he is already acclimated to.

There isn’t a zero chance Jayson Werth could stay in Philly, but the clock is ticking and just about everyone wants to see a resolution to this ongoing saga.

Hopefully, this will prove to be a “Werthy” pursuit, and we’ll see the scruffy-looking outfielder in a Phillies uniform for years to come.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Shane Victorino Snags Gold Glove

As for the rest of the Phillies, the one player who definitely got snubbed is third baseman Placido Polanco.  Polly had only five errors, turned 32 double plays and had 258 assists in 123 games this year. 

The player who actually won the award is ex-Phillie Scott Rolen, whose stats are also good, but not nearly as good as Polanco.  Rolen played 123 games, committed eight errors, turned 28 double plays and had 259 assists. 

While it is not a huge edge, Polanco’s numbers are better.  Rolen is a great player and this is his eighth Gold Glove award.  But having played the same number of games as Polly, he was not as good. 

Remember also that last year, Polanco was a second baseman and had to make the transition to third.  Add to that the elbow injury Polanco endured nearly all year long after getting hit with a pitch and his effort is much more impressive.

In other news, pitcher Jamie Moyer went to play winter ball in the Dominican league after the season ended to try and revive his career.  He suffered an elbow injury after a start and has returned home.  Moyer had an MRI on Tuesday and is awaiting the results. 

Moyer thanked fans on his Facebook page saying, “Thank you to everyone for your thoughts and support during this time. I went for an MRI yesterday and will keep you updated on what the outcome is once I hear anything. Have a great week and thanks again!”

We wish Moyer the best and hope he is well soon!

Another thank you goes out today to all veterans who served our country and continue to inspire us all with their bravery and sacrifice.  Happy Veterans Day!

(Photo by Jenn)

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Where Cliff Lee Will Sign if He’s NOT Gonna Be a Yankee

Come on Mr. Lee and do your stuff
‘Cause you’re gonna be mine
‘Til the end of time”

By Eric Marmon

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports recently tweeted (and the NY Sports Digest re-tweeted…why haven’t you signed up for our Twitter account yet?) that there are seven to eight teams interested in Cliff Lee.

Unfortunately for NY Sports fans, the Yankees can only be one of them.

Let’s dissolve one myth first: No team in Major League Baseball is going to offer Cliff Lee as much money as the New York Yankees.

Truthfully, there are small countries that couldn’t offer Lee the kind of money the Yankees will be able to. They may not offer him a blank check in the same way they did for CC Sabathia two years ago, but they are expected to offer him a deal that would make him the richest pitcher in baseball.

On top of that, no franchise will be able to offer the same year-after-year consistency the Bronx Bombers can. If Lee signs a six-year contract with any other team, he’ll have no idea whether that franchise will be buyers or sellers five years down the road.

In the Bronx, Lee knows every season is championship-or-bust. The only other franchise that can promise a similar guaranteed-contender status year after year might be Boston, but even they can’t be put on the same tier as the Yankees.

So if the Yanks money can’t be matched, and their year-by-year consistency can’t be matched either, Lee in pinstripes should be a done deal. And yet it’s not, and most pundits predict a deal won’t be made until sometime between Thanksgiving and the Winter Meetings.

Is this just your basic negotiating timetable? Or is Lee looking for something more than what the Yankees can offer?

Or is his wife just calling the shots?

Whatever the case, the smart money is still on Lee opening the 2011 MLB season in Yankee pinstripes. But for all those who like to overanalyze (we sure do), here’s a look at the other potential landing spots for Clifton Phifer Lee.

The Texas Rangers

Well, duh.

Considering the Rangers defeated the Yankees twice this past season (once when they acquired him from Seattle at the trade deadline, and again in the ALCS), a switch from Arlington to The Bronx could be interpreted as a step down.

But let’s be serious; signing with the Yankees has never been, and never will be, seen as a “step down.”

That being said, the franchise is in the best financial state it’s probably ever experienced, with new ownership headed by former New York Met Nolan Ryan. The Hall of Fame pitcher-turned-owner has publically stated his team will be aggressive in trying to re-sign Lee, so don’t be surprised if the contract they offer is enough to purchase a dozen small islands.

Also, any news you hear claiming the Texas state income taxes are negligible is false. Besides, the amount of endorsement-dough Lee could bring in playing in NY completely neutralizes that, anyway.

On paper, the Rangers are the favorite to re-sign the Ace…the favorite behind the Yankees, that is.

 

The Washington Nationals

Think back to the winter of 2008.

Brian Cashman and the Yankees were parading AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia around like Carl Paladino with a baseball bat, while the lowly Washington Nationals were in a bidding war with the Baltimore Orioles for the services of former Maryland resident Mark Teixiera.

Although Cashman ended up swooping in and stealing Tex for himself, it was the first time the franchise formerly known as the Expos had flexed any sort of financial muscle.

Two years later, Nats GM Mike Rizzo has publically announced on several occasions his team will be targeting Lee. They have shown a willingness to offer the big paycheck, even if they’ve yet to put signatures on any.

And with slugger Adam Dunn looking to sign elsewhere, they’ll have even more of that unspent money to spend.

That being said, it still comes back to winning, something the Nats have yet to ever really do. Yes, a 1-2 punch of Lee and Stephen Strasburg will look nice…in 2015, if/when Strasburg returns from Tommy John surgery.

Look for Lee and his agent to look long and hard at a big-money contract from DC…then use it as leverage with Texas or New York.

 

The Boston Red Sox

They haven’t said whether they have or haven’t contacted the free-agent hurler.

And as we previously mentioned, they’re the only team that can promise a year-in and year-out championship-or-bust mentality similar to the Yankees. Not to mention, some pundits have concluded Lee actually loves sticking it to the Yankees.

And obviously, no team offers a better opportunity to do that than the Sawks.

But their rotation is already pretty crowded with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, Dice-K and John Lackey already under contract for 2011. Throw in Tim Wakefield (also under contract for next year) and they’ve already got one-too-many.

Plus prospects Felix Doubront and Michael Bowden seem ready for their shots at starting in the bigs—opportunities not likely to come unless two or three of the “Big Six” suffers an injury.

Yes, it’s a league based on pitching, pitching, pitching. But if Boston signed Cliff Lee, they’d be the first team in MLB history to have too much of it.

Barring a major trade, Cliff Lee won’t be in Boston.

The Philadelphia Phillies

This might be the biggest Wild Card in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

Lee has publically declared, on several occasions, how much he enjoyed playing in Philly as well as the atmosphere in the team’s locker-room…endorsements he didn’t offer about Seattle or Texas.

Additionally, Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has shown he’ll do whatever it takes to get his man. And nobody knows this better than Lee himself, who was jettisoned to Seattle as part of the fall-out when the team acquired Roy Halladay from Toronto.

Allegedly, they’ve reached the limit on their budget. But don’t sleep on Amaro pulling off something crazy.

The Houston Astros

SI’s Jon Heyman said Houston has thrown their hat into the mix.

They’ve shown a willingness to overpay pitchers in the past (see Roy Oswalt). With their former ace now throwing up north, they should be in the market for a replacement.

That being said, there have been rumors that Cliff Lee hates pitching in the South during the summer months (rumors he vehemently denied). Regardless of whether they’re true or not, one can only wonder; if he’s going to re-sign in Texas, why not do it with the Rangers?

The Los Angeles Dodgers

Any discussion about who is after Lee has included LA, although they still have ownership issues, and according to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post they’ve already targeted right-hander Brandon Webb.

It would appear the only way Don Mattingly gets to manage Lee is if/when he gets his well-deserved shot managing the Yankees.

The New York Mets

What? Yeah, sure, why not?

New general manager Sandy Alderson has said the Mets will be conservative spenders under his watch. But for Cliff Lee, they should make an exception.

And considering the Wilpons were the only people in the world that made money off Bernie Madoff, they have no built-in financial excuse not to.

Signing Lee would be a huge victory for the Mets on a series of different fronts. One, it would give them arguably the best 1-2 punch in the Majors if/when Johan Sanatana is able to return.

And not only would it help them stack up against the Big Three in Philly, it would also crush the Philadelphia fanbase, having to go up against the former Cy Young winner who is still beloved on Broad Street.

And if you think it would sting Phils fans, imagine the burn it would give Yankee supporters. Fans of the Bronx Bombers have had their eyes on Lee almost as long as Knicks fans were eyeing LeBron (Almost).

At least King James ran off to Miami, far, far, away. Can you imagine the backlash if Cliff Lee took his talents to Queens?

This article originally appeared on The NY Sports Digest. If it’s off-beat and it’s about the Mets, Yankees, Knicks, Giants, Jets, Islanders, or Rangers, then The Digest is the spot to get it.

Stop with the mega-sites and get a feel for the true pulse of New York at www.NYSportsDigest.com

 

 

Possibly Related Posts:

• November 10th – This Day in NY Sports History
• November 9th – This Day in NY Sports History
• November 8th – This Day in NY Sports History
• November 7th – This Day in NY Sports History
• November 6th – This Day in NY Sports History 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Big Questions Facing the Phillies This Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies face many questions heading into this offseason.  The biggest among them deals with the expiring contract of right fielder Jayson Werth.  But the questions do not stop there for Ruben Amaro Jr., a man who has had all the answers thus far in his short time as Phillies’ general manager.  

Many controversial moves have helped define Amaro’s gutsy persona in Philadelphia.  He’s become one of the top GMs in the sport and he is no stranger to taking chances.  This 2010 team appeared to have it all for the Phillies, though its abrupt exit proved otherwise.  

The 2011 season presents its share of challenges and another chance to continue what has become the Philadelphia dynasty.  The Phillies are one of the best teams in the league and boast a stellar 1-2-3 punch in their rotation.  

In the end though, injuries and inconsistency plagued this team and got the best of them.  Here are 10 questions for the Phillies to ponder this winter.   

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ticket Prices Rise Again

With every game sold out in 2010 and a 123-game sell-out streak dating back to 2009, it is easy to see why the Phillies feel they can keep gouging fans for more money.  But they are failing to see the long term effects.  They are forcing out low-middle income fans and pulling in more corporations and those at the top of the proverbial food chain.

If the team stops winning in a couple of years as the talent ages or moves on to other teams, the higher-end fans, whom are usually the fair-weather fans, are going to drop off like flies.  And there won’t be any low-middle class fans left to pick up the slack in ticket sales because they will not be able to afford the high prices.  Of course, that is just my opinion.  You may agree or disagree.

There are other ways to make money; all the Phillies need to do is look around and see what other teams are doing in terms of creative enterprise.  Take a look at some of the fee-based services and opportunities the San Francisco Giants offer to their fans:

– Lou Seal-ebrity Ride of the Game:  Allows Giants fans the opportunity to tag along with Lou (the mascot, like the Phanatic) for an inning.

– Lou Seal Appearance:  The mascot will visit your party, take photos, etc… between innings or a your kid’s birthday party, etc…

– Steal Second: Tag along with the Giants grounds crew during the third inning and change out 2nd base!

– Slumber Party: Pitch a tent and sleep ON the field, overnight and then meet a player in the morning.

– Fantasy Batting Practice: Take a swing or shag a ball; for up to 30 people which includes a two-hour batting practice with Giants Alumni, lunch on the Club Level, a Q&A session with the Giants Alumni and tickets to the game that day.  (I saw this event when I was in San Francisco last year taking a park tour and was SO jealous!)

And this is just ONE team.  One team that has figured out how to please their fans and earn money at the same time.  If the Phillies incorporated a few of these ideas into their plans, there would be no need to keep jacking up ticket prices.  Fantasy batting practice?  Can you imagine?  That would be SOLD OUT every time!  And fans would be willing to pay top dollar for such an opportunity…I know I would.

How about riding around with the Phanatic for an inning?  That would be AWESOME!  Have the fan paying for the experience sign a waiver that does not hold the team liable for any accidents and also has the fan pledge not to do anything stupid and…abracadabra!  An easy money maker.  Magic.

Hey Phillies, how about a little creativity?  You will make more money and fans will be happier; it’s a win-win.  Not to mention that offering these unique experiences is a great public relations move.

That is my rant for the day…feel free to comment below.

And in case you missed it, here is my 2010 Phillies Photo Tribute with pictures I took throughout the year:

Thanks for stopping by!

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Roy Halladay Set To Receive Some Well-Deserved Hardware

Major League Baseball begins handing out its postseason awards today with the Cy Young winners being announced on November 16.

Roy Halladay is the favorite to win the award, but could face some competition from Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals and Josh Johnson of the Marlins.

Halladay was the most consistent pitcher in the National League this season, averaging 7.6 innings per start with a WHIP of just 1.04. 

However, Halladay did trail Johnson and Wainwright in ERA.

 

	E.R.A
Halladay	2.44
Wainwright	2.42
Johnson	2.30

 

Halladay also had less strikeouts per nine innings pitched than Wainwright and Johnson, but was dominant in walks per nine innings.

 

	K/9	BB/9
Halladay	7.9	1.1
Wainwright	8.3	2.2
Johnson	9.1	2.4

 

Other interesting aspects to Halladay’s case include his perfect game.  Halladay tossed the only perfect game in the National League this season.  Ironically, the opposing pitcher that game was Josh Johnson. 

Halladay also threw the second no-hitter in postseason history in game one of the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds.

Halladay’s 21 wins, 250.2 innings pitched, nine complete games and four shutouts all also led the league.  He was also the only candidate from a playoff team. 

Halladay’s statistics put him in the front-running to win the award, but fans have seen some crazy things happen in years past, such as C.C. Sabathia earning the award over Johan Santana in ’05. 

All other things aside, expect Halladay to win the Cy Young the beginning of next week. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Free-Agent Hitters: A Top 14 List From Jim Thome To Carl Crawford

I printed out a list of the 2010 MLB free agents (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts) and got to work highlighting the available upper tier players that caught my eye.

As usual, there is an abundance of available pitching help, and specifically, relief depth on the market and because I haven’t seen them all (and to be honest I don’t google “Chad Gaudin highlights” very often) I decided to stick with everyday players for my list.

The list is based solely on who I think the best available free agents are. It does not factor in status (Type A/Type B) that could affect who signs where and whether or not a team loses a draft pick for signing a particular player. In addition, my list obviously does not account for how much each player will earn at their next stop. For example, I’d rather have Orlando Hudson for one year at $4 million than Derek Jeter at five years and $80 million.

I may work on starting pitcher rankings later (*SPOILER ALERT* I’d have Cliff Lee No. 1) but for now, without further ado, here’s my list of the top 13 free agent hitters (player age in in parantheses).

14. Jim Thome (40): The likable Paul Bunyan character is 40 years old but still managed to smash 25 home runs this year in just 276 at-bats! Thome no longer provides any value in the field, but for a measly $1.5 million the Twins got a lot of pop out of the slugger. Don’t expect anything but another one year contract for Thome and don’t be surprised when he outperforms it.

13. Manny Ramirez (39): Is Manny Ramirez the Randy Moss of Major League Baseball? Or is Randy Moss the Manny Ramirez of the NFL? Anyway, Manny is Manny is Manny and this means that he is still feared among Major League pitchers. After the White Sox claimed him off of waivers, however, Manuel slugged just a single home run and a single double in 88 at-bats.

As with Thome, I’d be shocked to see anyone offer him more than just a one-year contract. Just two years ago Manny was looking to cash in on a huge payday. The Dodgers gave him a two-year, $45 million contract and should be thankful they didn’t give into Scott Boras’ demands of a four-year contract for the quickly eroding star.

12. Johnny Damon (37): Despite his terrible arm, Damon has, by the numbers, managed to maintain himself as a league average outfielder due to his speed and instincts. He also continues to find his way on base and can still swipe a bag when needed. Damon’s power dropped quickly (from 24 home runs to 8) after his move to Detroit, but the veteran seems to have gas left in the tank for his next stop.

11. Magglio Ordonez (37): Magglio was putting up some big time numbers last year until a broken ankle sidelined him for the season. Unlike the previous two on this list, Ordonez can at least play a serviceable outfield, though of course it remains to be seen if the injury will affect him.

Another guy who, like Manny, will have to get used to making less money fast, Ordonez nonetheless could be an excellent option for a team in need of a power right-handed bat. I still see him playing best in the American League where he can be used as both a DH and an outfielder.

10. Orlando Hudson (32): The O-Dog just keeps chugging along and will most likely play for his third team in three years in 2011. Hudson continues to play solid, if unspectacular defense and has a good bat for a second baseman. Don’t expect much pop, but do expect another consistent year from a player I believe went from being over-rated to under-rated.

9. Vladimir Guerrero (36): Yes, Vladdy looked terrible in the World Series. It was sad to see him in right field in Game 1 kicking the ball around. Vlad is, of course, no longer an outfielder and should not be treated as such under any circumstances.

The DH Vlad did contribute almost 200 runs to one of the best offenses in baseball and despite his refusal to take many walks, he still managed to hit .300 due to his low strikeout rate. It was a renaissance year for Vlad, one few could have predicted, and despite his poor finish, you can bet an AL team will give him another shot to replicate his regular season in 2011.

8. Carlos Pena (33): It looked as though Pena had it all figured it out until he laid a stink-bomb of a season in 2010 for the Rays. The first baseman failed to crack the Mendoza line with an alarming .196 batting average and has saw his OPS drop 305 points since its height of 1.037 in 2007. All that said, Pena still flashed some power and could benefit from another change of scenery.

7. Paul Konerko (35): Paul Henry Konerko has a special place in my heart as without fail, I find him available in the 15th round of my fantasy baseball draft and without fail, he delivers.

Konerko added 11 home runs to last year’s total and continued to get on base at a high clip. Age and injury concerns regarding his back should keep Konerko in the AL, but he’s an example of another veteran who is still getting it done at the plate well into his 30s.

6. Derek Jeter (37): A slightly better fielder than the No. 5 player on the list (I kid, I kid), Jeter is one of the most thoroughly discussed free agents of the year. Much has been made of his sub-standard year at the plate, but I would not be shocked to see The Captain come back with a vengeance in 2011.

Is he worth $20 million a year over four or five years? Absolutely not, and unless he has a complete lack of self-awareness he knows this.

Yes, he has done great things for the Yankees, but with both his offense and defense in decline, and questions about his future at the shortstop position, he must come to terms with earning tens and not twenties of millions of dollars a year. He ain’t leaving the Yankees, but it will be fascinating to watch the negotiations unfold.

5. Adam Dunn (31): Despite being one of the worst defenders in baseball, Adam Dunn still maintains plenty of value. According to FanGraph’s UZR rating, Dunn picked up his defense at first base this year and while he walked 39 less times than he did in 2009 he continued to display consistent power with 38 dingers to match his output from last year.

The Nationals made a mistake by not trading him for prospects before the deadline this year and it will be interesting to see just how much Dunn commands on the open market. Will National League teams have much interest in him?

4. Victor Martinez (32): ESPN’s Keith Law made this observation on Twitter last night: “If your team needs a catcher who absolutely will not get on base, this is the free agent class of your dreams.” Law was dead on, and V-Mart is the only catcher who is noticeably different compared to his free agent peers (this begs the question: can’t we just roll all the other free agent catcher’s into a hybrid named Jarosedit Pieritanajas?).

Of course, Martinez has his flaws defensively, throwing out a paltry 21 percent of basestealers in 2010. But with his bat, the ability to play catcher, first base and DH, there should be a strong market for the switch-hitter.

3. Adrian Beltre (32): The Red Sox $9 million investment in a year of Beltre turned into a steal when the third baseman OPS’d .919 for the club in 2010. Beltre doesn’t like to walk to first base and probably won’t replicate his .331 batting average on balls in play (his career BAbip is .294) but he remains a premium defender at third base.

The red flag? Beltre has produced his best numbers in contract years when he’s had something to prove. That said, the free swinger showed he can produce at a high level and played in all but eight games. He will get his money.

2. Jayson Werth (32): You probably know Werth’s story by now. High draft pick. Took a while to get to the Show. Had injury issues that were misdiagnosed. Went to the Mayo Clinic and got his wrist right. Signed with the Phillies and his career belatedly took off.

The right-fielder (who can also capably man center) is finally in position to cash in on his first big payday. How much will teams pay for a streaky hitter who has played just three full seasons? He and Beltre are the only (relatively) young right-handed impact bat on the market and my guess is that someone will pay plenty.

1. Carl Crawford (29): The crown jewel of this class, Crawford, like Werth, is a well-rounded outfielder who does a little bit of everything. A workout fiend, Crawford uses his speed to swipe an average of 54 bases per 162 games and play a terrific left field. And he’s not just your run-of-the-mill slap-happy basestealer, either.

The outfielder hit 19 home runs, 30 doubles and 13 triples to prove he’s got some pop in his bat. Look for Crawford to earn the highest contract of any hitter on the market as several teams battle for his services. He deserves it.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Cannot Afford To Overpay for Jayson Werth

The Philadelphia Phillies have exclusive negotiating rights with impending free agent Jayson Werth until midnight of Saturday, Nov. 6. After that time, any of the other 29 clubs are free to negotiate contract terms with the coveted middle-of-the-lineup righty and utility outfielder.

The feeling in Philadelphia right now is that one of those other 29 clubs (namely the New York Yankees) will take full advantage, and Werth’s run as a Phillie will end.

And for me, that would be just fine as long as the Phillies make Werth a fair offer first. But the big question is, of course, what constitutes a fair offer?

Well, my idea of fair and Werth’s idea of fair isn’t going to match up. He doesn’t deserve what Jason Bay or Matt Holliday got but, then again, neither did they.

Werth, overall, had an average season at the plate and, if we’re being honest, that’s where most of the money is earned.

There’s no denying Werth’s talents as an outfielder. He’s got a great arm, is very good at reading the ball, and is very rarely caught messing up.

But at the plate, he lacks the ability to come up big in crunch time (as evidenced by his dreadful average with runners in scoring position) and because of that flaw, he does not separate himself from a guy like Holliday.

But with all that said, he is a powerful righty and letting him walk creates an obvious void in the Phillies’ lineup.

The team could fill this void with a power guy to platoon with either Raul Ibanez in left or Dominic Brown in right (such as Andruw Jones, Pat Burrell or Jeff Francoeur), but simply holding on to Werth would be much easier.

However, the $15 million per season he’s looking for is simply too much. He wasn’t good enough in 2010 to warrant that type of contract, and it’s a deal the Phillies would regret in short order.

A guy making that type of money needs to be someone who’s driving in runs on a consistent basis and not just hitting solo home runs.

Sure, those runs count as much as an RBI single, but more often than not Werth is striking out or popping out with guys on second and/or third than he is cracking a long ball with no one on.

For me, if I’m a decision-maker on the team, I’m more comfortable between $11 million and $13 million per season, but there’s no way Werth and his agent, Scott Boras, accept that type of deal.

Werth was seeing dollar signs on his own, but with baseball’s version of Drew Rosenhaus in his corner, he’s feeling like Babe Ruth or Mickey Mantle on the open market and wants to hear a number that’s going to make his eyes pop out, not a realistic number that he deserves.

Which, of course, almost assures he’s going to end up overpaid in New York.

I think, for the most part, Philly is ready to see what Brown can do in right field and would not be at all disappointed to hear the Phils offered Werth a five-year, $65 million deal and he turned it down to play for the Yankees, Red Sox or another team with too much money.

That money could then go to shoring up the bullpen, maybe finding a fifth starter, getting a veteran fourth outfielder, and having some extra money in their back pocket for when Jimmy Rollins becomes a free agent after the 2011 season.

But if the Phillies fold and open up the checkbook for Werth, it won’t be long before they and the entire city are wondering why a very good player is getting paid like a superstar.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Rumors: 5 Possible Replacements for Philadelphia Phillies Jayson Werth

The Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Jayson Werth becomes a free agent at 12:01 AM ET this Sunday.   

While there is still a chance that Werth may remain in Philadelphia, many doubt that the Phillies will give him the contract that him and his agent Scott Boras are looking for.

Philadelphia’s talented outfielders currently include Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and the young Dominic Brown.  

The problem is that Werth provided a right-handed bat to a lineup that is lefty heavy.  Brown, his likely replacement, bats left-handed as well. 

Ibanez is not getting any younger and it is hard to predict his production next year.   

If the Phillies lose Werth, they need to sign or trade for another right-handed outfielder because Ben Francisco is not the answer.

Here are the best five possible fits for the Philadelphia Phillies if Jayson Werth signs with another team.  

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BaseballEvolution.com: Aaron Hill and the 2010 Dave Kingman Award

When Gus Zernial of the Chicago White Sox and Roy Smalley of the Chicago Cubs won the inaugural Dave Kingman Award way back in 1950, the level of analysis that went into the award was pretty primitive. 

Did they guy hit a lot of home runs? If so, did he have a really low batting average and also a strangely low RBI total? 

Okay, good. Here’s your Dave Kingman Award. 

As baseball enjoyed its statistical revolution of the last 30 years, the Kingman analysis became greatly enhanced. To home runs and on-base percentage we were able to add runs created, OPS, OPS+, adjusted batting runs, WAR, and a host of other offensive statistics, to say nothing of the tacitly present defensive factor, measured by fielding runs, plus/minus, ultimate zone rating, and defensive WAR. 

Indeed, the statistical revolution has brought us into a new era of Dave Kingman analysis, which is really great, because there have certainly been season in which the Kingman candidates have abounded, and simple reference to home runs and on-base percentage haven’t given us the necessary information we’ve needed to parse the Pedro Felizes and the Chris Youngs. 

Where we’ve needed more, we’ve gotten it. 

And so it is, then, that we turn our attention to the 2010 Dave Kingman Award, with an eye towards determining, once again, who in Major League Baseball more than any other player was truly doing the least with the most. 

Let’s have a look: 

Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks 

Reynolds will perpetually be a Kingman candidate because of his traditionally high home run and strikeout rates, combined with his traditionally low batting average. This season was no different for the Diamondbacks third baseman, as he hit 32 home runs, but managed only a .198 batting average with 211 strikeouts. 

After becoming the first player ever to strike out 200 times in 2008, he became the first player ever to do it twice in 2009, and in 2010 became the first player ever to do it three times. 

Reynolds was particularly bad in 2010, however. After driving in 102 RBI and scoring 98 runs in 2009, those numbers dropped to 85 and 79. He also had a 150 hits in 2009, and that number dropped to a shocking 99 hits in 596 plate appearances in 2010. The adage regarding strikeouts being just as detrimental to a player as any other out does not apply, it would seem, to Mark Reynolds. 

Brother needs to put some bat on some balls. 

Nevertheless, Reynolds remains just outside of being considered a Kingman clone for a simple reason: in 145 games, Reynolds took 83 walks in 2010, which raised his OBP a surprising 122 points above his batting average. 

There is value there, and while it is not great, it is enough to keep him out of the inner Kingman circle. 

Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays 

Everything we just said about Mark Reynolds pretty much goes for Carlos Pena. He had the same curious combination of below .200 average and above .300 OBP, he hit a shocking number of home runs for a guy who doesn’t seem to make contact with the ball all that often, and he finished with fewer than 100 hits in 144 games. 

Pena is also a pretty bad defensive player, though this is not his reputation. Nevertheless, in this season, he is too good to win the Kingman. 

Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays 

It is simply unbelievable that Adam Lind could have consecutive seasons as disparate as the ones he had in 2009 and 2010. Lind went from 35 home runs, 114 RBI, and a .305/.370/.562 to 23 home runs, 72 RBI, and a .237/.287/.425 without even seeing a significant decrease in playing time. He scored almost 40 fewer runs in 2010 (93 vs. 57) and had 44 fewer base hits. 

I mean, what in the name of Jonny Gomes 2006 is going on here? 

In any other season, Lind would likely have walked away with the Dave Kingman Award handily with 23 home runs and a .287 on-base percentage. Throw in his -8.65 adjusted batting runs (second worst for any major leaguer with over 20 home runs) and his 0.1 WAR (wow), and he’d be a shoo-in. 

As it is, he isn’t even the best Kingman candidate in the American League, nor is he the best candidate (spoiler alert) on his own team…

 

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles 

There are certain things that baseball fans never understand, certain pieces of conventional wisdom that all baseball insiders follow but baseball outsiders can’t comprehend. 

For me, this is that thing: why is it that from time to time a team with no hope of making the playoffs will have a veteran player drastically over-achieve their career performance during the first half of the season and not immediately sell high on that player. 

This year we saw that with two players: when Carlos Silva came out of the gate lights out for the Chicago Cubs, winning his first eight games, the Cubs sat idly by patting themselves on the back for having found such a diamond in the rough. 

Even when it became clear that the Cubs season was going to be a train-wreck (I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say mid-May even though, for me, it was mid-March) and they were going to be dealing some players, they held on to Carlos Silva like he was found money. 

Had it been me, as soon as he got to 5-0 and I would have been on the horn with every general manager in baseball offering to give him up to any team willing to take his salary off my hands. When a guy like Silva (career WHIP: 1.397) comes out and looks like the next Derek Lowe for two months, you Sell Sell Sell!!! 

The other player we saw that with in 2010 was Ty Wigginton. Hey look, what do I know? There is a chance that when the 30 year old Wigginton came out and hit .288 with a .934 OPS over the first two months of the season with 13 home runs, 32 RBI, and 23 runs scored on the worst offensive team in baseball, it meant that he had finally figured things out. 

Had it been me, though, again I would have been on the horn with every team in baseball that needed a corner infielder for the fourth, fifth, or sixth spot in their lineup. If you think the Orioles couldn’t have gotten a tasty Double-A pitching prospect, or even a middle infield defensive specialist, in return for the hot hitting Wigginton from a desperate playoff-cusp team, you’re crazy. 

And what, possibly, were the Orioles holding him for? Was the 2011 season going to be built around this guy? 

As it was, the Orioles held on to Wigginton, and enjoyed the business end of a four month stretch from June 1st to the end of the season in which he hit .231 with a .640 OPS and nine home runs the rest of the way. Well play, Mr. Angelos, well played. 

Not only did the Orioles not get anything in return for two months of Wigginton hotness, they also found themselves in possession of a Kingman candidate. 

Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs 

The 2010 National League Dave Kingman Award, and 2010 Major League Baseball Kingman Finalist, must be Aramis Ramirez of the Chicago Cubs. 

Not only did this guy suck on both sides of the ball, but he also $16.75 million to do it. 

As they say in melodramatic action movies when either an infectious disease or an object from space threatens to kill everyone on the planet: 

My. God. 

That Aramis Ramirez didn’t suffer one of the worst full seasons of all time is a testament to his second half. We here at BaseballEvolution.com have an Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award for the player who tails off the most after a great first half; in 2010, Ramirez was the bizarro Alex Gonzalez. 

On July 8 of this season, just days before the All Star Break, Ramirez had a .195 batting average with a .254 OBP and a .350 slugging percentage. To that point, through 59 games, A-Ram had nine home runs, 30 RBI, 18 walks and 52 strikeouts. 

Aramis was downright respectable in the second half, though, hitting 16 home runs, 13 doubles, and a triple while batting .285 with an .880 OPS the rest of the way. 

Imagine: despite that performance, he was still our Dave Kingman Award Finalist for the National League. The reason why is simple enough: on the season as a whole, Ramirez finished with the third fewest adjusted batting runs of any player with over 20 home runs in baseball, and fewest in the National League, with -7.93. He enjoyed (or didn’t enjoy) a negative WAR at -0.7, and his .294 on-base percentage was still terrible. 

Indeed, it was a year of which Dave Kingman would have been proud. 

Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays 

Ah, Aaron Hill. I hate to dog an LSU Tiger like this, but Aaron Hill’s 2010 season was a historic one from a “doing the least with the most perspective.” 

Hill’s conventional stats are bad enough on their own to justify giving him the 2010 Kingman Award. Combined with his 26 home runs, Hill had 70 runs, 68 RBI, 22 doubles, 108 hits, and 41 walks. His batting average was a ridiculous .205, and his on-base percentage followed suit at .271. His OPS was a terrible .665, good for a 79 OPS+. 

His more advanced stats were also terrible: 0.8 WAR, -17.5 adjusted batting runs, and 56 runs created. 

But when you go deeper, you realize how terrible these numbers truly are for two reasons. 

First, in 2010 Hill became the sixth player ever to hit more than 25 home runs and have less than -15 batting runs (Hill went 26/-17.5). The other five were Tony Armas (1983), Vinny Castilla (1999), Tony Batista (2003 and 2004), and Jeff Francoeur (2006). 

Important, Armas and Bastista (twice) both won the Kingman Award in their respective years, while Francoeur was the runner-up, to Pedro Feliz, in the controversial 2006 voting. 

But wait… there’s more. 

In 2010, Aaron Hill also became the second player in the history of baseball to hit more than 25 home runs and have an OPS+ under 80, joining only Batista in 2003 (who somehow managed to go 26/73 in 670 plate appearances). 

And there it is: the essence of what it means to win the Dave Kingman Award. A rare combination of home run power and overall valuelessness. At least by this standard, Aaron Hill had the second best Kingman-clone season of all time. 

And for this reason, Aaron Hill is the 2010 Major League Baseball Dave Kingman Award Winner.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

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