Don’t Jump Off a Cliff Yet! The Phillies Are Beatable Even with Cliff Lee

Four aces is almost a guaranteed win in poker. However, the Phillies’ “four aces” will not guarantee them any more World Series rings…yet.

Even with the addition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies are not on a plateau above the rest of the MLB.

As an avid Phillies fan, I consider myself to be unbiased on this subject, and though I wish it were not true, I believe that the Phillies are going to be knocked out in the NLCS or World Series.

The Phillies have an amazing starting rotation now; however, they will not be able to finish games with their bullpen. The Phillies seemed to be fixing their bullpen late in the season, but they do not have the shutdown bullpen they had during their 2008 World Series run.

In ’08, the Phillies had a perfect Brad Lidge (41-of-41 in the regular season and seven more saves in the postseason), whose only blown save was in the All-Star Game, and a shutdown “Bridge to Lidge” in Ryan Madson. Besides Lidge and Madson having career seasons, the rest of the bullpen was clutch, and the entire team pitched well when it mattered, having a 3.07 ERA in the postseason.

The bullpen was the backbone of the ’08 team, and even though they only had a few good starters, the bullpen held the opposing team whenever they had to.

The Phillies had great starting pitching last year too, with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt (acquired via trade with Houston) making up H2O, and they doused many teams whose offenses were on fire. The Phillies also proved that starters are not enough for a winning team.

H2O pitched well, and Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick and the rest of the starters weren’t too shabby either. However, you can shut out every team, but you won’t win without an offense. The Phillies offense is just too inconsistent to pull off a postseason run, especially when the best pitchers are still around. The Phillies’ starters did reasonably well against the Giants in 2010, but the offense just couldn’t help them out.

An offense that struggled last year will be worse this year if not addressed. The Phillies lost Jayson Werth to the Nationals, and though Werth did not have a great 2010 season, his All-Star production is to be replaced by second-year player Domonic Brown.

Brown had a decent start in the majors, but he is still young and inexperienced and cannot be relied upon to be as cool in the postseason as All-Star Jayson Werth, who has already been there three times with the Phillies.

Losing Werth was a big loss, and in an aging lineup like Philadelphia’s, which includes seven of eight batters who are 30-plus years of age (and have been riddled with injuries), the Phillies need to acquire a more consistent bat that that of 31-year-old Ryan Howard. Howard struggled mightily in the playoffs, and his strikeouts are a major area of concern.

If the Phillies lineup can stay healthy or add another bat, they will manage, but asking such an old lineup to stay healthy is asking a lot.

If the Phillies do not acquire a good bat and/or stay healthy, as well as a decent bullpen arm (perhaps Chan Ho Park again), then they will most likely lose in the playoffs.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philly TV Show Co-Host Makes a Pitch for Cliff Lee

TV show co-host LuAnn Cahn is “Pitching for Cliff Lee”. This is Cahn’s attempt to get the newly-signed pitcher to appear as a guest on The 10! Show.

Cahn plans on having a new attention-getting gimmick each day until Lee appears on The 10! Show. She has also started a petition to help make this happen.

The idea was sparked when Lee returned to Philadelphia, after turning down offers from the Yankees and Rangers.

Cahn’s initial interest peaked, when she noticed that her co-host Bill Henley was very vocal about Lee’s 2009 departure. He like many Philadelphian’s could not understand why they traded Lee.

Henley also made several remarks about Lee being in the World Series, while the Phillies sat at home.

Needless to say this would be a treat for them both.

In closing, it would be great to see a national sports figure come on a local show that supports his team. So, if you live in the Philadelphia area and would like to help sign the petition below.

In the past, Phillie’s stars such as Cole Hamels, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have appeared on the local show. All were promoting outside projects so this would be the first time a player came on this show just because he can.

The 10! Show is a talk show similar to Regis and Kelly, just localized for the Philly area. It can be seen weekdays at 11 AM on NBC 10.

WATCH THE CLIP:

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/shows/10-show/Campaigning_for_Cliff_Lee_Philadelphia-112014409.html

SIGN THE PETITION:

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/pitchingforclifflee/

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Give Cliff Lee a Contract Full of Risks

Now that Cliff Lee has finally made his decision, spurning superior offers from both the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, we can move on.

Lee has joined a starting rotation that already includes last season’s Cy Young winner, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.

The addition of Lee gives the Phillies arguably the best rotation in baseball; fans of NL East teams are seeing flashbacks of the Atlanta Braves‘ rotations of the 1990s.

The Phillies signed Lee to a five-year, $120 million deal which could grow to $135 million over six seasons.

After looking over how the deal breaks down in terms of dollars, it is a very risky contract for the Phillies.

The bidding for Lee’s services began at six years. The initial offer from the Yankees was a six-year deal and the Rangers started at five years but quickly added a sixth.

While Lee is one of the best pitchers in baseball and easily the best available free agent pitcher this offseason, most people felt that a commitment of that length to a 32-year-old pitcher with back problems was too risky to justify the amount of money.

Shortly after Carl Crawford signed with the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees added a seventh year to the deal and brought it up to as much as $150 million; that’s seven guaranteed years, not six with an option.

But the Phillies were able to get Lee for less years and less money. Great deal for them, right?

Not so fast.

Under the new deal, Lee will make just $11 million next season, but after that it goes up and up.

It breaks down as follows: $21.5 million in 2012; $25 million in 2013; $25 million in 2014; $25 million in 2015.

Lee will turn 33 years old in August. So, for those who said devoting such money into an aging pitcher was a bad idea, consider that the Phillies will be paying Lee $25 million in 2015 when Lee will be 37 years old.

But now on to the sixth year option. In 2016, Lee’s option year will be guaranteed for $27.5 million should Lee pitch 200 innings in 2015 or a combined 400 innings in 2014 and 2015. Also, Lee must not finish the 2015 season on the DL because of a left shoulder or elbow injury.

Should Lee not complete those provisions, he has a $12.5 million buyout.

Sound like a good deal?

Nevermind the fact that the Phillies will be paying Lee $25 million at ages 35-37.

But with the exception of the 2007 season, Lee has thrown at least 200 innings in each of the last five seasons. Over the last three seasons, Lee has averaged 221.1 innings pitched.

It’s a bit of a double-edged sword for the Phillies. Should Lee throw his required 200 innings in 2015 to guarantee his sixth year, he’ll be making $27.5 million at the age of 38. And while you can assume that Lee would have been healthy and effective in order to reach 200 innings, that’s not a fair assumption.

Just because he reached 200 innings, doesn’t mean he was effective.

At the age of 38, in a pitcher friendly park like Citizens Bank Park, it’s not hard to imagine Lee having a hard time.

So even if he hits the 200 innings mark in 2015, it’s no guarantee he’ll be worth the $27.5 million the Phillies would have to pay him.

The stipulation concerning Lee’s status on the DL at the end of the 2015 season is even more confusing. To review, Lee cannot end the season on the DL because of a left shoulder injury or elbow injury.

Okay, but when Lee missed time last season due to injury, where was the injury? That’s right, his back. So it’s okay if Lee’s back continues to be an issue over the next few years in Philly because even if it lands him on the DL at the end of the 2015 season, he’ll still get his $27.5 million.

Or what if it’s an ankle injury? Or maybe an injury to his quad muscle? What if he takes one off the head and goes down with a concussion? No problem! $27.5 million in his pocket.

So to put it this way—if Lee pitches 200 innings with a 4.25 ERA in 2015 and ends the season with a broken ankle, his contract is guaranteed at $27.5 million for the 2016 season, when Lee will be 38 years old at the start of the season and turn 39 years old that August.

So the Phillies were able to steal the best pitcher in baseball this offseason. They stole him for less years and less money than the team that always seems to land that big free agent they want, the New York Yankees.

And if the Phillies win the World Series next season, hell, let’s say they win two straight, they’ll still be paying Lee a ridiculous amount of money which only increases as he gets older and could find themselves paying a so-so pitcher, able to suffer from any injury except to his shoulder or elbow, $27.5 million at the age of 39.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Rumors: What Cliff Lee Signing with the Phillies Means for the Yankees

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Trade Rumors: 10 Near-Deals That Teams Will Regret Not Making

A wise man once said that when your team sucked last year, change the roster. That man was so wise that he didn’t tell me his name.

But fogetaboutit.

The point is that when teams suck and no top-tier free agent wants to go to a losing team—probably because they have already played on a losing team for most of their career—they then need to make trades so that they start winning again.

But for some reason the trades that need to happen sometimes never do, for one reason or another.

Begin Slideshow

Cliff Lee: 10 Reasons the Philadelphia Phillies Are Now the Favorites in the NL

The current National League Cy Young Award winner, former American League Cy Young Award winner and three-time 20-game winner. Two-time 20-game winner and a sixth-place finish in the 2010 National League Cy Young Award voting. 2008 National League Championship Series and 2008 World Series MVP. Add to that another former American League Cy Young Award winner with a 20-game win season under his belt, and you’ve assembled an impressive cast of starting pitchers (and a stocked trophy case.)

That’s exactly what the Philadelphia Phillies have done.

When the signing became official on Wednesday afternoon, the Phillies put names to that impressive resume, and effectively assembled one of the greatest rotations, on paper, to ever grace the world of baseball—Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee.

When the Phillies acquired Oswalt at the 2010 Trade Deadline, fans were ecstatic. Added to a rotation that already boasted powerful arms in Halladay and Hamels, the Philly faithful quickly dubbed the new big three with catchy nicknames like “Roy Story 2” and “H2O.” So when the Phillies “lurked on the periphery” long enough to swoop in and sign this year’s top free-agent prize, fans and analysts alike were quickly dubbing the quartet the “Phantastic Phour,” “the Phab Phour,” “Smokin’ Aces” and my personal favorite, “Charlie’s Aces.” On paper, this rotation has the potential to be one of the greatest rotations of all time and take the National League by storm.

But does the addition of Cliff Lee make the Phillies the best team in the National League?

The following 10 slides should show you just why it does.

Begin Slideshow

Fantasy Baseball Fallout: Cliff Lee Is All About The Brotherly Love!

Let me just start by saying that I do not want to be writing this article. 

Not just because Cliff Lee did not sign with my Rangers, but because of the way it went down.  Throughout the whole process Ranger fans were led to believe Lee might stay in Texas and take (slightly) less money than what the Yankees were offering because he liked his time in Texas.  In the end he takes substantially less money in order to play in a place he likes, and that place is not Texas.  He did not take the money, and he did not pick us.  That sucks.  Now that I am done editorializing, maybe we should move on to the fantasy impact.

Ultimately, is there a significant fantasy impact of Lee going back to Philadelphia?  We are talking about a guy who has posted stud-caliber numbers in four different cities over the past three years.  His ERA was somewhat higher in his stops at hitter’s parks (3.39 in Philly, 3.98 in Texas), but his strikeout rate was consistently around seven to eight K/9, and his walk rate was consistently around one walk per nine innings or lower.  That is not going to change wherever he pitches.  

So we are talking about strikeouts and WHIP remaining relatively similar and a probable uptick in ERA which should be offset by an increased number of wins thanks to a solid Philly lineup.

The point is this: Continue Reading>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

The 2010 Phillies and the 5 Greatest Pitching Rotations of All Time

One of the best rotations in the MLB belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.  They started this offseason with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.  Now, the Phillies have lured Cliff Lee into their rotation.  Does this give them one of the best rotations of all time?  Let’s take a look at baseball’s greatest rotations, and you can decide for yourself.

Begin Slideshow

Cliff Lee Press Conference: 5 Questions On Lee’s Return To Philadelphia

Cliff Lee is officially a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. The papers have been signed and sealed. Now it’s up to Lee to deliver.

The organization is counting on him to do just that, to the tune of a cool $120 million.

No pressure though, Mr. Lee. Vegas and baseball enthusiasts everywhere only expect you and Phillies to turn the National League into your own personal playground en route to a World Series appearance.

And if you don’t win a title, don’t sweat it. There will be plenty of blame to travel up and down the payroll, which, as of this moment, exceeds $170 million.

But never mind the Series. Before you or any other of the New Four Horsemen hurls a ball plateward this season, there are some questions to answer.

 

 

Do the Phillies Now Own One of the Best Rotations of All Time?

 

If you believe in the power of sabremetrics, then yes.

According Sports Illustrated’s Cliff Corcoran, who accumulated 2011 statistics for each of Philadelphia’s Big Four using Baseball Prospectus’ Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR) — geez, what a mouthful — the quartet of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt compares favorably with some of history’s best pitching foursomes.

Corcoran’s projections predict that in 2011, the Big Four will be worth 26.6 wins above replacement, a figure that compares favorably to what the numbers indicate are the two best pitching rotations since 1954: the 1966 Dodgers and 1997 Braves.

[Side note: For those not up-to-date on their scientific baseball lexicon, the WAR formula assesses how many wins a player is worth over the course of a season.]

That Dodger rotation, which included three future Hall of Famers among the foursome of Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Claude Osteen, and Don Sutton, registered 32.5 wins above replacement. The Braves rotation, with the unforgettable trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, was fraction behind at 32.4.

You make the call. Does the Phillies rotation deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as some of the best of all time?

My answer is no, at least until they prove the numbers are accurate.

 

 

How Many Runs Will Lee and Co. Require?

 

You would think not many. None of the Big Four has a career ERA over 3.85. In fact, in 37 combined years of major league service, there have been only five instances in which any of them recorded an ERA higher than 4.32 in a given season.

The next logical question is, can the explosive Philadelphia offense, which finished 2009 ranked seventh in runs scored, get the job done more often than not?

When you average together the career ERAs of Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, the result is 3.47. In other words, all the Phillies have to do is score four runs a game and they’ll win 130 games in 2011, right?

Easier said than done.

I went into minor detail yesterday about the possible pitfalls that may await the Philadelphia lineup in the absence of Jayson Werth, who was either first or second on the team in nearly every major statistical category last season.

Who picks up the slack? Maybe Domonic Brown, but the 23-year-old only has 62 career at-bats and may not be ready to provide the Phillies with a legitimate threat either in front of or behind Ryan Howard.

Another thing to keep in mind: assuming Brown becomes a mainstay in the place of Werth, the average age of the Phillies lineup this season is nearly 32 years of age. As many teams are trending younger to save cash, Philadelphia will be one of baseball’s older teams. Can they support the pitching staff on a consistent basis over a 162-game season?

 

 

Is the Contract Too Long?

 

Lee signed a deal that guarantees him $120 million over the next five seasons. It also includes a vesting option worth an additional $27.5 million for 2016. Of the three teams lobbying for Lee, Philadelphia was the only one whose offer didn’t include guaranteed money for six seasons; the Yankees offered two deals, one of which guaranteed seven years, while Rangers offered a seventh year as a vesting option.

Lee took the shortest deal. Still, is his new contract too lengthy? Assuming Lee pitches either 200 innings in 2010 or 400 innings over the course of the 2014-15 seasons, and his option vests, he’ll be pitching during the back end of his final season at age 38.

True, left handers generally last longer than right handers, but what kind of production justifies paying that sort of money to a 38 year old Lee, who would be in his 15^th season in 2016?

I suppose that’s why the deal also includes a buyout, valued at a slightly smaller $12.5 million.

Also consider that of the 52 free agent pitchers that have signed deals of four years or more since 1990, only five have averaged 30-plus starts and posted an ERA 20 percent better than the league average, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

If Not No. 1, Then Where?

 

There’s more than one numbers game involving Lee in Philadelphia, the first of which has to do with the terms of his contract. The other is which slot of the rotation he fills: No. 1 or No. 2?

In all fairness to Roy Halladay and his recent historical heroics last season, he should be the undisputed ace of the staff. He has proven more consistently over the course of his career that he is deserving of that role. But disregarding the whole right-left-right-left setup, wouldn’t Oswalt, whose career ERA of 3.18 trumps Lee’s 3.85, have just as much a right to that second spot? And what about Hamels, whose 3.53 career ERA would fit nicely in the No. 3 hole?

I suppose in the grand scheme of things it really doesn’t matter, but isn’t $20 million just a tad too much to be paying a pitcher that, statistically, is only your rotation’s fourth-best performer?

 

 

Does Lee Really Make the Phillies Better?

 

There’s something to be said for team chemistry. It doesn’t necessarily come in the form of dollars and cents or home runs and on-base percentage. And some managers will tell you they’d rather have a second-tier player who meshes well with the remainder of the locker room than a superstar whose antics threaten to tear at the fabric of the team.

Often times, camaraderie trumps talent. Just ask the 2008 Yankees, who finished third in the AL East and missed the playoffs despite a payroll that neared $210 million.

I’m not insinuating that Lee has been or will be a destructive force. He clearly made the Phillies better in 2009, and there’s no reason to believe his likeable character won’t gel with his teammates this time around.

But there are no promises. Perhaps more in baseball than in any other professional sport, teams have to coalesce into a single, cohesive unit from season to season in order to be successful.

The Phillies had that make up each of the past three seasons. It was one of the biggest driving forces behind their success, and maybe the main reason why they came so close to becoming the first NL team to win three consecutive pennants since the St. Louis Cardinals of the 1940s.

The Phillies may ultimately win 100-plus games with Lee on the roster for a full season. But as the dog days of August give way to playoff races in September, will the Phillies—who welcome back roughly the same cast of characters as in recent seasons—have the right chemistry to propel them into October?

Or will the addition of one single player, even one of Lee’s modesty, be enough to derail what has been the most successful run in team history?  

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Cliff Lee Press Conference: 5 Key Observations

Cliff Lee was officially introduced as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon in a press conference at Citizens Bank Park. 

Given the extreme interest in the pursuit of Lee, the offseason’s most prized free agent, this comes as huge news to fans of the Phillies and Major League Baseball. 

With the way Lee’s five-year, $100 million deal went down, there were plenty of things to learn in the official introduction of the star left hander.

Here’s what we learned: 

It Was Never About the Money 

We all know that Lee left upwards of $50 million on the table by taking Philadelphia’s five-year, $100 million offer over larger and longer deals on the table from New York and Texas. 

After today’s press conference, we know that it was never about the dough for Lee and his family. He said, “At a certain point, enough is enough with the money.” And given the numerous times he talked about how Philadelphia was the best fit for his family, we should take him at his word.

 

Lee Pushed the Deal Through 

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. admitted that he wasn’t confident that he could pull off the deal for Lee initially. When talks simmered following the World Series, Amaro said it looked as though they wouldn’t be able to get him. 

It wasn’t until Lee and his wife Kristen pursued the deal with Philadelphia that the talks picked back up. It’s clear Lee picked the place he truly wanted to go. 

 

The Phillies Have One Year to Win With This Team 

With nearly $300 million committed to Lee, Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard, it’s clear that the Phillies won’t be able to retain the services of Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins when their contracts expire after Amaro’s comments about next offseason. It’s also worth noting that Chase Utley is signed through 2013 at $15 million per year. 

While the Phillies rotation, with or without Hamels, is perhaps the best in the game, Philadelphia has a limited window to win with this bunch. 

 

Lee Wasn’t Scared to Pitch In New York 

This is something we certainly believed over the last two postseasons when Lee showed his best stuff while pitching in Yankee Stadium, but the interesting way in which this deal went down, fans had to wonder why Lee wouldn’t just take the money and run. 

It’s clear there were no holdups with playing in New York. Cliff Lee just wants to win. 

 

The Washington Nationals Made This Deal Happen

It’s clear that if the Phillies re-signed outfielder Jayson Werth, they wouldn’t have had the resources to acquire Lee. When the Nationals signed Werth for $126 million, they, in turn, allowed one of the best pitchers in all of baseball to go to a divisional opponent.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

« Previous Page — Next Page »