Philadelphia Phillies: Offseason in Review and a Preview for 2011

The Phillies’ dream rotation is getting a lot of press, and it gets more here. It will be a spectacle when the regular season comes around.

The offense, however, is in decline. Most of the Phillie hitters are on the wrong side of 30 and dealt with injuries last year. In addition, the farm system has been gutted of late, and there is little in the way of reinforcements closer than a few years away. Domonic Brown, the young right fielder, is the most exciting non-pitching story as he seeks to replace Jayson Werth’s production.

 

Rotation: Improved

There is little that hasn’t been said about the Phillie rotation. Their five starters (it doesn’t really matter who the fifth one is) could combine for 1000 innings pitched. These guys are going to lead the Phillies to a ton of wins, probably en route to a fifth consecutive division title.

The fifth starter position remains open to my knowledge, and the leading candidates Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton were almost equally mediocre in 2010. Whoever gets the job will be made a double-digit winner by the Phillie offense, provided he doesn’t pitch himself out of a job. There are arguments to be made for either. Joe Blanton has better stuff and could strike out three times as many guys as he walks. He could also be trade bait though, which leaves them with Kendrick.

Kyle Kendrick has been more of a ground ball pitcher in recent years and is cheaper than Blanton. Of course both are candidates to give up 30 home runs over a full season. I do think Joe Blanton is the better pitcher, and he probably gets the job unless the Phillies need to move him to fix a hole in right field.

Last year, the Phillies started Joe Blanton in 28 games and he ran up 175.2 innings. With help from a high BABIP-against, he spun an ERA of 4.82. To be honest, he’s probably a low-4.00s guy. Jamie Moyer made 19 disastrous starts, and Kendrick started 31 games, pitching 180.2 innings of 4.73 ball. To replace most of these starts with Cliff Lee and a full year of Roy Oswalt makes this rotation a lot better.

Just to temper expectations somewhat, I will say that Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee both see slight declines in the ERA and WHIP departments. Oswalt posted a BABIP-against of .261 and I’m expecting his ERA to bounce up by about 40 points. He did start striking more guys out last year, probably by throwing more change-ups, which should serve him well. I think Cliff Lee is going to walk a few more than 18 batters this year, plus he will play the entire season in a hitter’s park.

I think Cole Hamels will be about as good as he was in 2010 or even a little better. He added some speed (one or two mph) to each of his three primary pitches in 2010. The strikeouts and groundball rates both jumped. The walks rose too, but not as much as the K’s. Roy Halladay is going to be Roy Halladay, which means an ERA no higher than 2.80 and 230+ innings.

Aside from having all the talent in the world, a rotation this deep is nice because it should allow each pitcher to relax in any situation knowing the next three guys can pick him up if he has one of those rare rough games.

 

Bullpen: Comparable

Much of the Philadelphia bullpen from 2010 returns, most notably de facto closer Brad Lidge, who could either be great or abysmal. While probably the most electric arm in their pen, he also walks a ton of guys and is a fly ball pitcher in a small ballpark. He brings value to the bullpen by virtue of his incredible strikeout rate, but probably won’t be an elite closer.

Ryan Madson has been a reliable set-up man for the past few years, and Jose Contreras thrived in relief last year. Both go a long way to strengthening this bullpen. Danys Baez is a liability though, with his 1.31 K/BB and 5.1 K/9 rates since 2007. J.C. Romero has control problems but has handled lefties well throughout his career and should be decent.

The only significant change is the absence of Chad Durbin who had the two best seasons of a largely mediocre career in Philadelphia. Over three seasons he contributed 226 innings from the bullpen with a 3.62 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. It doesn’t seem like a bad idea to let someone else, who will cost about $2 million less get a shot at the bullpen but Durbin was a reliable pitcher who Charlie Manuel liked to go to.

There are a number of relatively unproven guys in the mix as well. Vance Worley is a 23-year-old righty who has been a starter. He has exhibited good control and has a strikeout rate on the higher end of average. He only pitched 13 innings for the big league club, and they were good innings, but his minor league stats project well. I like him best out of the guys in the mix for the bullpen.

Scott Mathieson is going to turn 27 before the season starts and his great strikeout rate in the AAA did not translate to his 39 big league innings. Mike Zagurski is a soon-to-be 28-year-old lefty who might compete with JC Romero for the lefty specialist role. David Herndon made 47 appearances from the pen and posted a 4.30 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. He’s a low-strikeout, low-walk guy in the mold of Jamie Moyer. Beyond these guys are a number of unimpressive minor league invites.

I think the Phillie bullpen is going to be comparable to that of last year, and though I don’t see them improving much on the 4.02 pen ERA from 2010, they will be fine. Phillie relieves shouldered the second-lightest workload in baseball last year and there is no way that continues.

 

Catcher: Comparable

Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider return to handle the Phillie pitching staff. Carlos Ruiz probably won’t hit .300 again but he will walk a lot with an unintentional walk rate somewhere around nine percent. I think he’s better than your average No. 8 hitter on a national league team. Schneider is an adequate backup who should not be a starter.

 

Corner Infielders: Comparable

If Ryan Howard’s ankle heals completely, which it had not as of two weeks ago, then he can be counted on to approach his usual production. In 2010, his 31 home runs and 108 RBIs were lower than we had come to expect from him but it seems silly to complain about numbers like that.

Can he hit 45 home runs again? I think so, I have no reason to believe his power is fading. His home run per fly ball rate is always very high, his environment and his ability to hit the fly balls far will ensure that. The interesting thing about Howard is that he hits for decent average for a guy who strikes out 32 percent of the time.

Placido Polanco missed 30 games in 2010, which is unfortunate because he is a great contact hitter who plays stellar defense. If healthy, we know exactly what to expect from him: an average within 15 points in either direction of .300, an OBP somewhere near league average and defense worth at least two wins above league average.

I have the same concern with both Howard and Polanco, and it has to do with health. I know what both are capable of and despite their being on the wrong side of 30, I think they can both do what they’ve been doing in 2011.

 

Middle Infielders: Comparable

Ryan Howard missed 19 games, but he led Phillie infielders in games played in 2010. It seems intuitive that the Phillies need their health to have a successful 2011, yet they won 97 games while giving a combined 679 plate appearances to Juan Castro, Wilson Valdez and Greg Dobbs.

Jimmy Rollins was out for nearly half the season and was ineffective for the other half. At his best he hits for moderate power and steals bases, but his recent averages and line drive rates are worrisome. I’m going to attribute it to his calf injury as I know his legs are a huge part of his game.

Chase Utley might be one of the few hitters in baseball who actually takes too many pitches. He has the power to hit 30 home runs should be expected to hit somewhere around .280 or .290 with an OBP closer to .400 than .300.

This is one of the more powerful middle infield combinations in the game, and that’s good because they help make up for Polanco’s lack of pop at third base. The duo play very well in the field too, but both of them turned 32 this winter and while I don’t think either is going to decline precipitously, neither will get better.

 

Outfield: Declined

I think it was wise to let Jayson Werth go, given that his absence allowed the team to assemble their outstanding rotation. Still he’s not easy to replace. Domonic Brown will get a chance to be Werth’s replacement, and if he doesn’t get the job, then it will be Ben Francisco. Brown hits for power and average and is fast, but will have to prove himself at the major league level. I cannot bank on him doing what Werth did last year, and even if he does, the Phillies will be without a strong righty bat in the middle of their lineup.

Francisco is a rather average player. He has some power, maybe to the tune of 20 home runs over a full season, but has never impressed enough to be given a full season of play.

Shane Victorino hit .257 last year and did not look like the leadoff-type the Phillies need him to be. I think he can do better. His BABIP was 22 points below his career average but his line drive rate was four percent below last year’s. Since this decline in line drives was replaced with an increase in fly balls, he also hit a career-high 18 home runs. He should be fine and can get the average back up to where it usually is.

Raul Ibanez’s power seemed to evaporate last year as he hit 18 fewer home runs in 71 additional plate appearances. He’s going to turn 39 in June, but he should still be able to produce. He hasn’t hit below .270 in the past 11 seasons, he draws enough walks and he should get some of that power back. I think he can hit 20 to 25 home runs, maybe 35 doubles and his presence makes the team better.

 

Bench: Comparable

Wilson Valdez is a 32-year-old utility infielder who at least handles the glove well enough for that role. Hopefully he doesn’t have to play as much this year. Ross Gload will spot Ryan Howard at first base and despite some decent seasons average-wise and the ability to go deep, a lefty on the bench is hardly what this team needs. John Mayberry is the fourth outfielder (fifth if Brown makes the team). Throughout his minor league career, he showed decent power but never was much of an on-base guy. The Phillies are a strong team on offense, but if there are injuries, the replacements are not especially pretty.

 

Lineup

This lineup heavily left-handed lineup is strong, stacked from top to seventh or so. Last year, as injuries took their toll, the Phillies fell to the middle of the pack in most offensive categories. Their .332 OBP was good, but only ranked 11^th. Their 769 runs scored ranked sixth and we all know that this lineup should have topped 800.

If they have their health, that won’t happen again but this team cannot keep it up forever. Everyone in this lineup is over 30, which could be partially remedied by Domonic Brown, but we’re going to begin to see some of these guys decline over the coming years and that will weaken this team, no matter how brilliant their rotation is.

 

The Farm

The Phillies have lost a lot of prospects in recent years en route to their fearsome rotation, and that’s a problem because these guys are aging. The best pitching prospects seem at least a year away and are not exactly what they need in Philadelphia.

Most noteworthy is a 22-year-old starter named Phillipe Aumont, who came over from Seattle for Cliff Lee. Aumont is a huge guy who throws hard but has stuggled with control in AA. There are several hitters who might turn out to be pretty good, but I don’t think there’s anyone (other than Brown) who is closer than two years away, if that.

 

Expected win total: 95-100

The only real divisional competition seems to come from Atlanta. The pitching will carry this team so far that the offense really doesn’t need to be better than it was last year. These hitters can do better, and if healthy, they will, and this team will be even better than last year’s.

 

Previously previewed: New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Power Rankings: A Look At The Best Third Basemen For Each MLB Franchise

Third base may arguably be the hardest position to play in all of professional sports. Hitters at the peak of their power strokes ripping line drives only 90 feet away and smoking ground balls can make it tough for even the best of athletes.

The following list of players counts down the best third basemen for each franchise in the MLB.

The Players are in no specific order as their accomplishments and trends are closely influenced by the era in which they played in.

Hitting lead-off, the Seattle Mariners…

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Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay: 10 Reasons To Take Halladay Over Lee in a Game Seven

The only big difference between these two starting pitchers is their throwing arm.

They each throw four plus pitches, all for strikes and on both sides of the plate; two-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, sinker and changeup.

Philosophically, they both approach pitching the same way. 

They don’t get flustered, and they want the ball.

So, I had to pick someone, and I’d rather take Halladay.

Here’s ten reasons why…..

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Philadelphia Phillies: More Than Just “Paper Champions?”

The Philadelphia Phillies have re-raised the bar for their own expectations in the coming 2011 season.  As if expectations hadn’t already been sky high over the past few years, 2011 may be the most hyped season in team history.  

With the signing of yet another ace in Cliff Lee, it’s safe to say that the Phillies are the “paper champs.”   But where does this get them ultimately you ask?  Nowhere.  There’s still 162 games to play and a lot is able to happen during that six-month window.  Then of course, you can include the playoffs, which the Phillies are a shoo in for at this point. 

Roy Halladay was OUTSIDE! running on Monday in shorts and a tee-shirt in NINE degree weather at Citizens Bank Park.  Does that make you believe in how much this team wants this?  

They have a plethora of talent on offense too which people tend to forget.  It’s rather been their “Fab Four” pitching rotation that’s gotten a bulk of the credit and deservedly so.  But don’t discount this offense.  When they turn it on, they can hit with anyone in the league.  Consider 2010 a collective slump and floundering for the offense.  Now a bounce-back 2011, as a whole offensively, could be instrumental to the team’s success.  

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies.  

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MLB Trade Rumors: 10 Destinations For Philadelphia Phillies’ Joe Blanton

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies made a big move in acquiring former Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee. 

The team also lost a key component to their success over the last four seasons in outfielder Jayson Werth.

The Phillies will be pushing for offense this season so another deal or two may be rounding into shape before the season starts.

For Philadelphia, there are still questions about who will hit in the fifth spot, how the team will replace the production of Werth and who will be the fifth starter.

Kyle Kendrick signed a tender to avoid arbitration with the Phillies so I imagine he will be the team’s fifth starter.

That leaves pitcher Joe Blanton on the bubble and in the middle of several trade rumors.

The following list is of 10 possible locations for the veteran right-hander.

Enjoy!

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Kyle Kendrick: Trade Bait or a Necessary Cog in the Machine?

Ever since the Philadelphia Phillies signed free-agent left-hander Cliff Lee in December, rumors have been flying about the city of Philadelphia regarding the status of interim right-handed starter, Joe Blanton.

Set to make $17 million over the course of the next two seasons, should the Phillies explore a trade for their fifth starter—or is he better served in their rotation?

To make things short and sweet, Blanton is better off wearing a Philly uniform, at least for the 2011 season.

Giving a quick survey of the trade market, the last of his suitors that would be willing to take on his contract in full seemingly went off the board when the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins signed free-agent right handers Brad Penny and Carl Pavano, respectively, and the Washington Nationals acquired former Chicago Cubs’ starter, Tom Gorzelanny.

Now, trading Blanton becomes a counter-productive scenario. In order for the Phillies to move him, their trading partner will require that they pay a portion of his salary. To do that, the Phillies would require a prospect in return. That seemingly removes potential suitors like the rebuilding Baltimore Orioles from the equation.

If they are forced to pay a large sum of Blanton’s contract, what is the point in trading him? They are better served paying him to be the fifth starter in Philadelphia rather than the third or fourth starter with another team.

Though Ruben Amaro is the type of general manager that likes to dwell in the shadows until the last possible moment, using smokescreens and sly tactics as a plot to operate in his own style this time, he may be telling the truth—he’s not comfortable trading Blanton because his options have run dry.

The need for an expensive, middle-of-the-rotation right hander just isn’t all that great.

So what can the Phillies do to shed payroll? After all, as Ken Rosenthal of FOXsports.com first reported, the Phillies will need to create some payroll flexibility in case they need to make a spur of the moment trade at the trade deadline.

And trading another right-handed starting pitcher, Kyle Kendrick, could become a top priority for the Phillies.

At first glance, the now-former fifth starter seems to have little trade value. In 2010, Kendrick made 31 starts for the Phillies, posting a record of 11-10 to go along with an ERA of 4.73.

Kendrick is an extreme “pitch to contact” pitcher, as he posted the lowest strikeout rate (4.18 K/9) among qualifying starting pitchers. Though he showed relatively good control, he also showed that he was prone to the home run, and his ground-ball rate had decreased from the year prior.

Though his win total is a product of extremely high run support (he finished second in baseball in this category, with the Phillies’ offense averaging a whopping 8.47 runs per Kendrick’s starts), he has shown a number of positive tendencies as well.

Though he has a tough time striking hitters out, he posted a good BB/9 of 2.44, and the opposition hit .277 against him. His greatest strength, however, may be his durability.

In three full season with the Phillies (in 2009, he appeared in just nine major league games), he has logged 483.2 innings, starting 83 games and never missing significant time with injury.

Kendrick, who was eligible for arbitration this off-season, settled on a $2.45 million contract with the Phillies, who now have two viable options for the 26-year-old right hander—move him to the bullpen or trade him.

Surprisingly enough, there would be a role for Kendrick in the Phillies’ bullpen.

He would become the long reliever, and push the interim long reliever, David Herndon, to Triple-A. With a rotation that features inning eaters Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton, Kendrick would see very few innings in 2011—which overall, may be a good thing.

He would be available for a spot-start should that situation present itself, and in the event of an injury, provide the Phillies with valuable depth. However, they could choose to use him differently out of the bullpen as well.

Though a “specialist” usually denotes a tough left-handed reliever, Kendrick could become a “right-handed specialist” of sorts. Though his numbers against right-handed hitters aren’t all too flashy, they are remarkably better than those against left-handed hitters.

Kendrick’s sinker is particularly tough against right-handed hitters (50.5 percent ground-ball rate), and in total, they managed to hit just .247 against him. Using him against select right-handed hitters isn’t all that impossible to fathom.

However, the Phillies may be able to receive more value out of Kendrick in a trade.

Earlier in the week, the Detroit Tigers established a market precedent for a pitcher like Kendrick, when they traded Armando Galarraga to the Arizona Diamondbacks for fringe prospects, Kevin Eichorn and Ryan Robowski.

Galarraga, 29, is widely regarded as a very similar pitcher to Kedrick.

In 2010, despite pitching a perfect game (we can save that debate for another time), he posted a mediocre record of 4-9, with an ERA of 4.49 and compiled similar strikeout, walk, and home run rates.

In all fairness, Kendrick is actually the more proven, established pitcher.

According to Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, a “handful” of teams showed interest in Galarraga before the Diamondbacks acquired him. Though the D’backs are probably off the board, there would be interest in a very similar pitcher in Kendrick.

So if the Phillies really wanted to move Kendrick, they would be justified in receiving a couple of fringe prospects for the right-hander. Moving his salary, however, (Galarraga is due to make $2.3 million) could be another issue.

So where do the Phillies stand with Kendrick? Before the trade deadline last season, the Phillies seemed to have lost all hope in the former promising starter. After a falling out with pitching coach, Rich Dubee, the Phillies designated Kendrick for assignment, only to recall him just a day later because of an injury.

While that depth can never be a bad thing, the Phillies have other starting pitchers that they can turn to in the event of an injury in 2011.

Before the Phillies signed Lee, people around the city of Philadelphia were calling for 23-year-old right hander, Vance Worley, to be given a chance in the rotation.

In 13 innings with the big league club last season, he displayed good control and the ability to strike hitters out, posting a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 1.38 (3.16 FIP).

Other pitchers that could start games for the Phillies in the event of an injury include David Herndon, who posted a record of 1-3 with an ERA of 4.30 out of the bullpen last season and prospects including Drew Carpenter, Drew Naylor, JC Ramirez and, if necessary, Antonio Bastardo.

Though they aren’t currently on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, pitchers Nate Bump, Michael Stutes and Michael Schwimmer could all make spot starts for the Phillies in 2011.

So, the depth is there. The Phillies must make a decision on whether they want to keep Kendrick in the system “just in case,” or if they are better served by moving his contract and receiving a couple of decent prospects in return.

Moving Kendrick may not create the same wiggle room that moving Blanton would, but his time in Philadelphia has run short.

In the long run, a trade may be beneficial for both Kendrick and the Phillies.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: The 10 Most Underrated Trades in Team History

The topic of trades has been a hot debate in Philadelphia Phillies fan circles, ever since the Phillies traded Cliff Lee away to the Seattle Mariners for Philippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez. 

But the Cliff Lee trade a year later may turn out to be one of the more underrated deals in Philadelphia Phillies history.  The challenges of a general manager are many, and may not be the very obvious things that a fan wants to see or hear. 

But in the end, the success of the general manager depends on how the trade has worked out long term. 

Here is a list of the 10 most underrated Phillies trades in the recent era.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why a Trade for Joe Blanton Should Be a Top Priority

The Phillies have put together the best pitching rotation is all of baseball.  And yes, this does include Joe Blanton in the fifth spot.

With the signing of Cliff Lee in the offseason, Blanton was pushed to the back of the rotation and became the fifth starter.  This has added unbelievable value to Blanton and the Phillies. 

Blanton is just 30 years of age and has many seasons left in him if he stays healthy.  Out of 30 No. 5 starters last season, just five pitched more than 190 innings, and only Gio Gonzalez of the A’s and Livan Hernandez of the Nationals reached the 200 mark.  Blanton has pitched more than 190 innings in five of his six seasons in the Majors thus far.  Last season was the first time that Blanton did not reach this plateau, because he went on the disabled list for the first time in his career after straining an abdominal muscle late in spring training.

Since joining Philadelphia after the trade deadline in 2008, the Phillies have a .600 winning percentage in Blanton’s starts.  Blanton is 25-14 in his 72 starts with the team.  While Blanton’s numbers do not make him an outstanding pitcher, they do make him an outstanding fifth starter.

Ruben Amaro Jr. announced last week that moving Blanton is not a necessity anymore, as the team can afford to have all five pitchers on the roster this season.  However, even though they have the top four starters in baseball, there are still some unanswered questions with the lineup. 

Brad Lidge had an impressive finish to the 2010 season by compiling a 0.73 ERA over the last two months of the season, including four scoreless innings in the playoffs.  However, Lidge still is not anywhere near his 2008 perfect season. 

Another question mark is the platoon theory in right field between Ben Francisco, Ross Gload and eventually Dominic Brown.  The Phillies decided to not pursue free agents such as Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez and Jose Guillen.  Using Blanton as trade bait could net the Phillies another solid outfielder who can play on an everyday basis or be used sparingly to give Ibanez, Francisco and Gload a day off every now and then.

Blanton is a very valuable player for the Phillies right now and a deal for him could be pursued by spring training.  If not, watch for Ruben Amaro Jr. to make a deal for him if a team suffers an injury to a top pitcher or to bolster the lineup at the trade deadline. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Why the Team Should Keep Joe Blanton

If you’re unfamiliar with the Philadelphia Phillies 2011 pitching rotation, then chances are you’ve been living under a rock.

This off season the Phillies made one of the highest profile signings of the year. In December, Cliff Lee signed a $120 million contract to rejoin the team that he unwillingly left a few years earlier.

With this signing the Phillies have Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. A rotation so potent, that even though the season has yet to start, many already arguably compare them to the likes of the 1997 Braves and the 1948 Indians as the possible best of all time. This is understandable. Between the four are 3 Cy Young awards, a World Series MVP, and multiple All Star appearances. But history has yet to be written.

And the Phillies still don’t have a definite No. 5 Starter. After acquiring Lee, the Phillies shopped Joe Blanton around. This was done in an effort to lower an increasingly high team payroll. But keeping him around may prove worth while.

Blanton, who was with Philly when they became World Champs in 08, has been a durable pitcher throughout his career. He could easily be one of the best No. 5’s in the league.

Also, he adds depth to an already stacked pitching squad. With Blanton in the rotation, this leaves Kyle Kendrick in the bullpen as a long man.

Injuries may also occur. In the event of an injury to one of the “big four” Blanton’s presence could be that much more valuable.

Then there is always the prospect of what can happen past this upcoming season. Oswalt is only signed until the end of year with an option for 2012. And that possible option only comes into play if Oswalt decides to stay in baseball. Oswalt has mentioned before the possibility that he could retire following the 2011 season. Of course if the Phillies do anything close to what many predict, Oswalt’s decision may sway closer towards hanging around a little while longer.

In a recent interview with MLB.com, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. stated that he expects Blanton to remain in a Phillies uniform. But Amaro also said, “Those things can change, obviously. It’s not etched in stone.”

His place on the team is currently uncertain.

Blanton is still with Philly and as the weeks go on it seems more and more likely he will be around come April. If he stays, the Phillies may benefit greatly.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 Projections, No. 19: Why Phillies’ Roy Halladay Is the Top Fantasy Pitcher

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Fantasy managers generally avoid starting pitchers entering their age-34 season, but when you’ve tallied no less than 220 innings for five consecutive seasons with a 2.96 ERA over that time frame, exceptions can be made. That’s just the case with Roy Halladay.

During the aforementioned five-year span (2006-2010), Halladay has averaged a whopping 18 wins per season and posted a minuscule 1.51 walk rate.

But wait, there’s more.

Still speaking in terms of the last five seasons, Halladay has posted by far the best first-pitch strike rate (65.2 percent) and top O-Swing rate (30.7 percent) among qualified starters.

In 2010, Halladay boasted the best cutter in the majors to go along with an extremely effective fastball/change-up/curveball repertoire. The Phillies’ ace hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball (92.6 average MPH in 2010, 92.1 career), and is among the league leaders in ground ball rate.

His slightly above-average strikeout rate (7.86 in 2010) is somewhat negated by the fact that he piles up so many innings, as he’s posted 200-plus strikeouts in three consecutive seasons.

A tiny regression to the mean may be in Halladay’s future, though not enough to keep him from being the No. 1 fantasy pitcher in 2011. Draft him with confidence.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	250.2	21	7.86	1.08	2.44	1.04
3-year average	245	19	7.74	1.27	2.67	1.07
2011 FBI Forecast	240	19	7.60	1.30	2.80	1.10

 

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday
• No. 17: Mark Teixeira
• No. 18: Matt Kemp

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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