2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 48: Why Cole Hamels Is the Most Underrated Pitcher
February 19, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Since 2007, only eight pitchers with at least 800 innings have an ERA lower than Cole Hamels’ mark of 3.44. Of those eight pitchers, only Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren have a strikeout rate higher than Hamels’ 8.32 K/9. Further, only Halladay and Haren have a walk rate lower than Hamels’ 2.21 BB/9.
Hamels’ 2009 campaign (4.32 ERA) apparently erased the memories of his sparkling 3.39 and 3.09 ERAs in the two years before, not to mention his World Series MVP performance in 2008.
After reminding fantasy managers of his brilliance with a 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.10 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 2010, observers have still been slow to notice.
Yahoo! composite ranks Hamels as the 14th best pitcher in 2011, while he’s being drafted as the 15th best pitcher according to Mock Draft Central’s ADP. In all reality, Hamels makes a strong case as a top-10 pitcher.
Last year, Hamels ranked among the league’s best in pitching statistics that indicate true swing-and-miss stuff:
- Contact rate: 74.8 percent (second)
- Swinging strike rate: 11.9 percent (second)
- Strikeout rate: 9.10 (10th)
If that’s not enough to convince you of his dominance, consider this: Hamels posted a ridiculous 2.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.69 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in the second half last year.
Entering his age-27 season, Hamels is clearly the best No. 4 starter in the majors. Matchups against the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Young and Jason Marquis will favor Hamels, allowing him the opportunity to post a career-high in wins this season.
| IP | W | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP | |
| 2010 Stats | 208.2 | 12 | 9.10 | 2.63 | 3.06 | 1.18 |
| Three-Year Average | 210 | 12 | 8.22 | 2.24 | 3.46 | 1.18 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 214 | 17 | 8.60 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 1.18 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
- Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
- No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
- No. 42: Alex Rios
- No. 43: Brian McCann
- No. 44: Drew Stubbs
- No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
- No. 46: Andre Ethier
- No. 47: Martin Prado
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com