Philadelphia Phillies Notes: Ruben Amaro ‘Lee-Ry,’ Spring Rotation Set and More

With all of the hype and expectations surrounding this Philadelphia Phillies team, we can’t say we didn’t expect this insane media coverage. That being said, it seems like anything that the Phillies’ rotation (insert catchy nickname) does is newsworthy.

Before their grand introduction press conference last week, it was reported that the group gathered around a table for breakfast. Yes, that made the tabloids.

So, of course, when word hit the media that new “ace” Cliff Lee was “injured,” the media sounded off in a frenzy and had Phillies fans scared half to death.

Personally, the first I heard of any such injury was when Ryan Lawerence of the Delco Times reported that Lee’s first bullpen session was cut short. That’s probably what sparked this whole powder keg.

However, there does seem to be some validity behind it. According to multiple sources, including Lee and Ruben Amaro Jr., Lee had felt some discomfort in what he called his left “armpit” while throwing at home in Arkansas, and called Phillies trainer Scott Sheridan to be on the safe side. Sheridan had Lee fly into Philadelphia to have an MRI, which revealed a minor strain under his left arm. Yes, people. I said minor strain.

The Phillies shut down Lee for about “eight days,” according to Amaro, and he resumed his workouts right on time with the rest of the Phillies staff. So why was his first bullpen session ended early?

According to Amaro, “We may be cautious, but he’s right on schedule now. It’s pretty much a non-issue for us.”

So there you go, folks. Cliff Lee’s mysterious armpit “injury” is a “non-issue.” Surely, this won’t be the last of the ridiculous media hype this spring. Expect to hear anything and everything about the Phillies rotation this spring, and be cautious in picking out the factual information.

There was productive news today, however, as pitching coach Rich Dubee was kind enough to enlighten us on his starting rotation throughout Spring Training.

As is usually the case, a young starting pitcher will make the first start of the spring in the Phillies’ now-traditional game against the Florida State Seminoles. That pitcher will be prospect Drew Naylor.

The Grapefruit League, which officially begins on Saturday for the Phillies, will feature some more prominent names. Opening the spring against the New York Yankees will be the Phillies’ fourth starter, Cole Hamels, whom according to Dubee, “could have pitched a (regular season) game” before he threw his last bullpen. Also scheduled to log innings on Saturday are Vance Worlrey, Ryan Feierabend, Mike Zagurski and new waiver-claim Brian Schlitter.

The Phillies will square off with the Yankees again on Sunday, when Joe Blanton is scheduled to take the mound. The Phillies will throw a ton of good relievers behind him, including prospects Justin DeFratus and Michael Schwimer, and the back end of the big league bullpen—JC Romero, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge, who’s having a healthy spring for the first time in a long time.

Next Monday will feature a very interesting matchup. Though he got the jitters of facing his old team out of his system last season, Roy Halladay will square off with the Toronto Blue Jays at their spring home in Dunedin, Fla.

A couple of other interesting names to watch on that day are JC Ramirez (part of the Lee trade) and Scott Mathieson, who are recovering from injuries. Also scheduled to throw next Monday are prospects Juan Perez and Michael Stutes.

The last set-up that Dubee announced was for next Tuesday, as Cliff Lee makes his much anticipated Spring debut against the Detroit Tigers in Clearwater, Fla.

Zagurski is scheduled to throw again next Tuesday, as the Phillies hope he can become a reliable left-handed option. Kyle Kendrick and Danys Baez will also  begin their battles to win jobs in the major league bullpen, and a couple of wily veterans will be looking to surprise people this spring, as Eddie Bonine and Dan Meyer throw.

Though nothing has been announced for next Wednesday yet, it’s more than fair to assume that Roy Oswalt will make his first spring appearance in a Phillies uniform against the Baltimore Orioles.

In case there was any speculation otherwise, this rotation lines up Halladay to get the nod on Opening Day, and unless something changes, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels and Blanton will round out the rotation.

In other news, as I reported last Thursday, the Phillies designated right-handed pitcher Drew Carpenter for assignment to make room for waiver claim Brian Schlitter.

As it turns out, Carpenter has cleared waivers and will re-join big league camp on Tuesday. However, pitching coach Rich Dubee told the media today that Carpenter’s days as a starting pitcher are over. Starting tomorrow, he will become a full-time reliever.

According to Dubee, the staff now believes that Carpenter’s greatest problem was getting through a lineup more than once. By reverting him back to a simple repertoire of fastball, cut-fastball and splitter, they hope to develop him into a strong right-handed reliever.

Seems like a stretch, but he clearly wasn’t going to make the show as a starter again.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Rotation: Domination or Failure?

As far as I can tell, there are only two options for the Phillies this season—domination or failure.  

Given the makeup of their pitching rotation, most observers are expecting domination. Total domination. Anything less would be seen as a failure by most.

The Phillies swooped in at the last moment in the Cliff Lee negotiations and scooped up the top-level pitcher for $120 million, making their pitching rotation at that moment one of the most dominant in all of professional baseball. Immediately, observers started to say words like “World Series” and “championship.”

With the addition of Lee, the Phillies rounded out a pitching rotation that many see as almost unbeatable. Those who are fans of other teams in the National League had to feel their heart sink to their stomach when it was announced that Lee would re-join the Phillies.  

It made it seem likely that they would dominate the National League for certain, and maybe all of baseball in the postseason to take home another World Series trophy.

The expectations for the Phillies are at the highest point you can reach before a season opens. Most observers expect them to dominate. Most observers expect them to take on all comers and come out on the winning end.  

Barring injury, most observers see the Phillies marching straight through the regular season and into the World Series.

But wait, what if it does not work out that way? What if they aren’t all that and a bag of chips? What if injuries happen? What if they come across teams that can hit them?  

What if their lineup that is now minus Jayson Werth doesn’t put up a lot of runs during games? If the Phillies rotation doesn’t completely dominate everyone, is “failure” the tag that becomes associated with them?

In my mind, it is only one or the other. With a rotation like the Phillies have, they have to be completely successful, or they are then considered a failure. If you have that kind of talent and they all stay healthy, the expectations must be met.  

Domination or failure—it is one or the other. There is no in between.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Placido Polanco and Other Philadelphia Phillies Milestones To Watch in 2011

Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco is approaching two noteworthy milestones in 2011, but he is not the only one. Let’s take a look at some of the milestones that some Philadelphia Phillies are closing in on this upcoming baseball season (slideshow adapted from this original post on Second String Blog).

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MLB 2011 Preview: Full Philadelphia Phillies Roster Breakdown, Predictions

Spring training is in full swing and one thought has been echoed all around Clearwater, Florida, from Phillies’ camp—this team is hungry. After appearing in two straight World Series, and winning one, being eliminated in the National League Championship Series by the eventual world champion San Francisco Giants left an unpleasant taste in the mouths of the team and its fans alike.

In fact, this year’s goal seems relatively easy to understand—vengeance. With the team assembled in years passed, anything but a World Series title could be considered a failure in Philadelphia. Now, with the addition of Cliff Lee and an atmosphere of anticipation that is unrivaled in this city, that goal is multiplied 10-fold.

Though the rotation that General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has assembled is widely expected to cruise through the regular season and position themselves for October revenge, this staff isn’t ready to look to the future yet. If Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton have said one thing in unison, it’s that they are only looking forward to their next starts. One game at a time.

They know that anything is possible. At this time last year, the talk around baseball was the strength of the Phillies’ offense, and despite finishing seventh in all of baseball in runs scored, we all know that the lineup that was assembled in Philadelphia could have done much better.

With All-Star caliber players like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard looking for healthy seasons in the prime of their careers, this Phillies team could do things that are unrivaled, both offensively and defensively, throughout the course of baseball history.

But just like that pitching staff, they’re only willing to look forward to one game at a time.

Unfortunately, the rest of us aren’t as patient as the Phillies. For baseball fans of all kinds, regardless of your loyalty, waiting for this rotation’s regular season debut has become unbearable. Will they live up to the hype?

Looking at the offense, we question many of the same things. Could the Phillies be even better than anticipated on the strength of a veteran, resurgent offense?

For that, we’ll take an in-depth look at everything Philadelphia Phillies, so that we may all be prepared for the upcoming baseball season that is sure to live in the minds of Phillies fans forever, regardless of the outcome.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Storylines to Watch in 2011

The countdown to one of the most anticipated seasons in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies began this past week when pitchers and catchers reported to Clearwater.  There hasn’t been this much excitement surrounding the Phillies in a very long time, if ever, and for good reason.

The expectations for this team are through the roof, as many are picking the Phillies to bring home another coveted World Series championship.  However, there will be many discussions and debates throughout the year, as this team will endure it’s share of ups and downs, as all teams do over a marathon season.  They will be praised at times, second-guessed at times, but since the bulls-eye on their backs is bigger than ever, they will also be criticized more than any other team in the league.

Here are a few topics of conversation that will surround the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies:

 

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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 50: Jimmy Rollins Doesn’t Need a High Batting AVG

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Jimmy Rollins is an enigma.

In 2007, his 139/30/94/41/.296 line was one of the greatest fantasy baseball seasons in recent memory. In 2008, Rollins’ power (11 HRs) and batting average (.277) dropped drastically while he battled a lingering ankle injury.

His 2009 line included the rare power/speed combo (21 HRs, 31 SBs) that fantasy managers wanted to see, but it came with an unusually low .250 batting average. Most people (myself included), chalked this up to a lowly .251 BABIP, and predicted a 2010 batting average closer to his career mark in the .270 range.

Unfortunately for Rollins’ fantasy managers, not only did his batting average bottom out again (.243) but his BABIP (.246) appeared to hold him back while he battled through calf and hamstring injuries that limited him to just 88 games. He also underwent surgery in December to remove cysts from his wrist.

Assuming 100 percent health in 2011, Rollins is the fourth best player at a thin shortstop position, even with a low batting average.

Although he’s entering his age-32 season, Rollins has maintained exceptional stolen base percentages in recent years:

• 2008: 94 percent (47-of-50)
• 2009: 79 percent (31-of-39)
• 2010: 94 percent (17-of-18)

It’s possible that the .251 and .246 BABIP totals over the last two seasons aren’t entirely the fault of bad luck injuries, but they’ve definitely factored in. If we’re assuming only 130-140 games this season and an average amount of luck, the Phillies’ leadoff man will trump the likes of Jeter, Ramirez, Drew and Andrus at the shortstop position.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 Sats	394	48	8	41	17	.243
Three-Year Average	581	75	13	59	32	.258
2011 FBI Forecast	600	90	15	60	25	.267

 

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
• No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
• No. 42: Alex Rios
• No. 43: Brian McCann
• No. 44: Drew Stubbs
• No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
• No. 46: Andre Ethier
• No. 47: Martin Prado
• No. 48: Cole Hamels
• No. 49: Zack Greinke

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 NL East: The Phillies Will Not Win The Division Easily

Do not take this the wrong way, I still do believe the Phillies will win the NL East. But I also have a feeling it won’t be as easy as everyone thinks. 

Remember last season? In the preseason the Phillies were picked to easily win the division and make it to the World Series. But what actually happened was much different. They were second in the division behind the Braves for most of the season and only took first place in September. 

They then got hot and became the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Halladay then pitched a no-hitter against the Reds and the Phillies went on to beat them down. However, they just could not beat the Giants in the NL Championship Series. 

Was their performance in the playoffs a fluke or a sign of things to come? Their offense is starting to age and even lost some players. Their pitching will improve, but I cannot see it becoming like the old Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz rotation of the 90’s. The Phillies pitchers, especially Halladay and Oswalt, are starting to get past their prime in terms of their age and they have an average bullpen. They are still a great team, but to what extent?

The competition will be tough for the reigning NL East champs with the offseason acquisitions by their rivals. The Braves traded for Dan Uggla, the Marlins got Javier Vasquez and Omar Infante and the Nationals acquired Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Most likely the only team that really could have a chance of closely competing with the Phillies would be the Braves, but the Marlins could also be close behind. 

In terms of their “big four”, they are great, but not spectacular. The comparisons made between them and the Brave’s rotations in the two decades ago are absurd. Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz had a combined five NL Cy Young awards in their 10 years together on the same pitching staff. I cannot see the Phillies staff staying together that long and being that successful. It may be in the top 25 best pitching staffs in baseball history, but it is not the best. They haven’t even played a single game together yet! 

The Phillies’ starting pitchers are only a combined 15-12 against the Braves. That is not dominant by any stretch of imagination. Only Halladay and Hamels have a winning record against the Braves, while the rest are .500 or below. In fact, Oswalt is 0-3 against them and Lee is 1-1. For two ‘dominant’ pitchers, that is not that impressive. 

The Phillies do have a team that can achieve its goals, but with their aging offense and the stiff competition from the Braves, it won’t be too easy. Their team is susceptible to injuries that could severely hurt their World Series hopes, especially if the injured player is Halladay or Chase Utley.

The Phillies’ road to becoming the 2011 NL East champions will not be paved with gold.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB’s All Time Top Starting Rotations — Where Will The 2011 Phillies Fit In?

The 2011 Major League Baseball season has not as of yet seen pitch one, but already there is speculation the fantastic Philadelphia five (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton) can accomplish things that align them with the greatest starting staffs of all time, if not plant them firmly atop the list.

While it’s hard to argue with the collective resumes of that coming, City of Brotherly Love rotation, Major League Baseball has had no shortage of great starting groups amidst its glorious past and rather than give you a glossy look at recent rotations who have imprinted themselves on our Johnny-Come-Lately baseball consciousness we’ve put together an accounting that reaches back to the days of the Great Bambino—when he was still chucking that is, for a Boston Red Sox nine that won World Championship Titles in 1912, 1915, 1917 & 1918.

To garner perspective we’ve implemented a ratings system with a base of 70-100 points residual to term of dominance not exclusive of bonus and subtraction points all of which you’ll come to understand as we go through the individual staffs. 

For now though let’s just get into it and see if by subject’s end we can come to any kind of a consensus on the single best starting rotation in the history of Major League Baseball. 

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MLB: Is Ryan Howard For Albert Pujols a Good Idea?

If you’ve not yet heard the speculation about the Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols trade, then you probably do not follow the Phillies or the Cardinals. 

Whether or not there is any validity to this rumor is anyone’s guess, and most Phillies fans out there love the idea, but should they? 

Yes, Pujols is the premiere hitter in baseball. 

Yes, he is a right-handed bat; the right-handed bat the Phils, and pretty much every other team in baseball, so highly covets. 

Pujols deserves every accolade he receives, but is this trade a good idea for the Phillies?  Let’s look at a few reasons as to why it might not be.

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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 48: Why Cole Hamels Is the Most Underrated Pitcher

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Since 2007, only eight pitchers with at least 800 innings have an ERA lower than Cole Hamels’ mark of 3.44. Of those eight pitchers, only Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren have a strikeout rate higher than Hamels’ 8.32 K/9. Further, only Halladay and Haren have a walk rate lower than Hamels’ 2.21 BB/9.

Hamels’ 2009 campaign (4.32 ERA) apparently erased the memories of his sparkling 3.39 and 3.09 ERAs in the two years before, not to mention his World Series MVP performance in 2008.

After reminding fantasy managers of his brilliance with a 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.10 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 2010, observers have still been slow to notice.

Yahoo! composite ranks Hamels as the 14th best pitcher in 2011, while he’s being drafted as the 15th best pitcher according to Mock Draft Central’s ADP. In all reality, Hamels makes a strong case as a top-10 pitcher.

Last year, Hamels ranked among the league’s best in pitching statistics that indicate true swing-and-miss stuff:

• Contact rate: 74.8 percent (second)
• Swinging strike rate: 11.9 percent (second)
• Strikeout rate: 9.10 (10th)

If that’s not enough to convince you of his dominance, consider this: Hamels posted a ridiculous 2.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.69 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in the second half last year.

Entering his age-27 season, Hamels is clearly the best No. 4 starter in the majors. Matchups against the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Young and Jason Marquis will favor Hamels, allowing him the opportunity to post a career-high in wins this season.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 Stats	208.2	12	9.10	2.63	3.06	1.18
Three-Year Average	210	12	8.22	2.24	3.46	1.18
2011 FBI Forecast	214	17	8.60	2.30	3.20	1.18

 

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
• No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
• No. 42: Alex Rios
• No. 43: Brian McCann
• No. 44: Drew Stubbs
• No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
• No. 46: Andre Ethier
• No. 47: Martin Prado

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

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