Will the Philadelphia Phillies Be the Miami Heat of the National League?

Back in early July of this year, LeBron James told the world that he was “taking (his) talents to South Beach and joining the Miami Heat.” With James’ decision, along with the additional acquisition of Chris Bosh through free agency, the Heat were supposed to shatter every known record for NBA dominance.

Media and fans alike predicted an immediate assault on performance marks like consecutive wins (33 by the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers) or total season victories (72 by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls). Note: With 32 games remaining this season, both of those records are out of reach for the 2010-11 Heat.

The truth is, the Miami Heat are on track to win a reputable 59 games, good for second place in the NBA Eastern Conference, but far from a historic season. 

With pitchers and catchers already reporting and Spring Training here, discussions have already begun about how dominant the Philadelphia Phillies will be in 2011. Baseball experts and casual fans alike have acknowledged the amazing arsenal of pitching that Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has assembled.

Cy Young winner Roy Halladay came into the Philadelphia fold before last season through a trade. Former Houston Astros ace Roy Oswalt was added last summer through another trade. And now, Cliff Lee, the premier free agent target of this past offseason, signed on to bring his talents to the City of Brotherly Love.

These three were simply additions to a Philly starting pitching staff that still had 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels on board.

Even before you look at what the Phillies have at the plate and in the field, this team, on paper, could look like the most intimidating collection of talent in MLB history.

Or…could it be the latest example of how talent collection is not the only factor in winning championships?

Last fall, no one gave the San Francisco Giants a prayer in the NLCS. Instead of a Philadelphia sweep, like many supposed, the Giants took the series in six games (4-2), sending Charlie Manual and most of the baseball world away scratching their heads.

Betting against the Phillies to win the NL East is not advisable. There’s more than a decent chance that they will end up back in the NLCS again this year. They may even make it to and win the World Series.

But, one of the great aspects of sports is that the games are not played on paper.

Comparing rosters and statistics is mesmeric. Looking at the leagues and forecasting ahead is exhilarating, especially with pitchers and catchers starting to throw it around. Predicting record-breaking seasons is part of the joy of following a sport.

I am one baseball fan who will be watching with interest to see if the Phillies can fulfill the Mount Everest-like expectations of the baseball world.

I am not predicting or hoping for the Phillies failure. I will not be sad if they succeed this season.  

But, I will also be paying attention to their progress toward the 116-win mark set by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 2001 Seattle Mariners—neither of whom, by the way, went on to win the World Series in those amazing seasons. 

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2011 MLB Preview: Chase Utley Is One of 9 Key Players Heading into New Season

Starting today, I will detail nine huge impact players for the new MLB season.

These players each face hurdles: from proving they are capable of staying healthy for another season (Josh Hamilton) to showing us that they can get healthy for the new year (Justin Morneau).

From showing last year was a fluke (Carlos Pena and Chase Utley) to showing us last year was no fluke at all (Jose Bautista).

From showing us they can go from the AL to the NL (Shaun Marcum) and from the senior circuit to the junior (Danny Haren).

Finally, showing us they can turn the page, enter the upper tiers of stardom and remain there (Phil Hughes and Carlos Gonzalez).

 

9. Chase Utley

Obviously Utley is not as key to the Phils’ success as other teams’ best hitters are to their squads (Albert Pujols, Buster Posey, Troy Tulowitzki, etc.), but it is important for him to bounce back from his mediocre (for him) 2k10 and his brutal postseason.

Utley missed about 50 regular season games last year and upon his return never quite got back in the swing of things. He had the worst HR/AB ratio of his career (16 HR/511 AB), his lowest BA since his rookie year (.275) and his worst slugging percentage (.445). For a normal second baseman, these are all fine and good, but Chase Utley is the best 2B in the NL, and those numbers are not up to his lofty standards.

It gets worse. His NLCS vs. SF was littered with miserable defense in more than one game, a .182 BA and one RBI in 27 ABs. It is reasonable to say that if Utley had shown up to play, the Phils would have advanced to the Series.

Of course, there is plenty of blame to go around. If Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino or Ryan Howard showed up, that would have put them in the Series as well. Nevertheless, Utley needs to bounce back and play a 150-game season to show us he is healthy.

The Phils should coast to the NL East crown—it’s hard to argue with those four aces—but the offense took a hit by losing the only legit righty they had (Jayson Werth) outside of Carlos Ruiz.

Utley has a pretty clear propensity for getting hit by pitches (he has led the league every full season he has played since 2007). His stance and proximity to the plate are going to lead to him getting beaned another two dozen times this season, but perhaps he will adjust after the wrist injury last year off a HBP.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Falling Back in Love with Cliff Lee on Valentine’s Day

As expected, most of the questions at Monday’s press conference in Clearwater, Florida featuring the entire starting rotation for the Philadelphia Phillies were directed at Cliff Lee, the surprise free-agent signing of baseball’s offseason. When not asked about his decision-making in returning to Philadelphia via free agency, Lee handled himself quite well sitting in the middle of the table and reiterating that he was just happy to be a part of the team.

“Basically, it’s spring training,” Lee said. “Just preparing for the season. I’m honored to be around these guys. But I’m just getting ready for the season.”

Lee joins a staff featuring the 2010 National League Cy Young award-winning Roy Halladay, a player Lee was practically traded for following the 2009 offseason, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. It is a foursome of starting pitchers that has caught the baseball world by storm, but Lee made sure to point out that there are five pitchers in the rotation, including Joe Blanton.

When asked about their thoughts about nicknames that have been thrown around in the media and on the Internet referencing the four ace pitchers, Lee told the media that there were five pitchers and none of the nicknames he had been presented with in the press conference were good because the number five was not included. Clearly, Lee was voicing out the thoughts shared by his fellow starters in red pinstripe pants and red practice jerseys, but it came through as though Lee was taking the lead in speaking on the behalf of the starting rotation.

Not Halladay, the soft-spoken Cy Young award winner who tossed a perfect game and a postseason no-hitter last year. Not the veteran Oswalt, who prefers to sit back and let others do all the talking. Not Hamels, who has become the senior member of the Phillies pitching staff in terms of time with the club. And certainly not Blanton, who had to remind the media on one occasion that he won a World Series ring with the Phillies.

All eyes were focused on Lee, and it was easy to see why. He is the new guy, again. He was the top free agent in baseball this offseason and this was his first time meeting with the media in Clearwater. Lee is the guy who Phillies fans have fallen in love with all over again.

“I felt like this was the best chance to win a world championship. That’s what it’s all about,” Lee said. “I felt that if I got an opportunity to come back, I would take advantage of it.”

Few doubt that Lee will have a successful season in Philadelphia this year if he stays healthy, but the question is whether or not he will be more of a vocal leader moving forward.

“We haven’t thrown a single pitch yet, so it’s a little early to be compared to another rotation,” Lee said when asked what rotation the Phillies aces would be compared to. “I remember the Braves‘ rotation [John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux] was very good.”

It will not be much longer before we can truly see where this pitching rotation ranks in baseball history, once and for all.

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2011 World Series Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

For the Fenway faithful, 2010 was a year to forget.

Their team battled injuries, bad luck and substandard play en route to a third-place finish in the AL East—the Red Sox’s lowest showing since 2006. Not even the once-beloved David Ortiz was immune from fans’ scorn.

But the offseason has been a different tale, one filled with prosperity and providence. To date, Boston has:

1. Acquired three-time All-Star Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres.

2. Won the Carl Crawford sweepstakes.

3. Bolstered the bullpen by signing Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler.

4. Laughed at the Yankees missing out on Cliff Lee.

To fill in for the departed Adrian Beltre, the Sox traded for the services of Gonzalez, the slick-fielding slugger from San Diego. Gonzo’s arrival permits Boston to move Kevin Youkilis to third and plants Big Papi permanently at the DH spot.

The acquirement of Crawford came as somewhat of a surprise, as the baseball world equated the Gonzalez deal to Boston bowing out of obtaining the Tampa Bay outfielder. Crawford not only brings his defensive prowess to Fenway but also adds speed to a relatively slow-footed Red Sox roster.

Although both had relatively down years, the additions of Jenks and Wheeler should help alleviate the pedestrian pitching of the bullpen.

While Red Sox Nation was undoubtedly elated by the first three proceedings, the fourth delivered just as much delight thanks to the deep-rooted dislike those in New England have for their New York cohorts.

However, the Pinstripes’ loss is the Phillies’ gain. The addition of Lee to Philadelphia’s arsenal of arms has many predicting a red-and-blue reign over the Senior Circuit. If highly heralded prospect Domonic Brown, who hit .327 with 20 bombs in two levels in the minors last season, lives up to his billing, Philly appears to be the team to beat in the NL.

The offseason overhauls of the Sox and Phils have made each the prohibitive favorite in their respective leagues. So if these projections come to fruition, which team would be crowned world champs? Thanks to the WhatIfSports baseball engine, we were able to simulate a series between Boston and Philadelphia 255 times. Here is a sample series indicative of the result:

Game 1
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Boston	1	5	0	Box Score
Philadelphia	3	5	0

WP: Roy Halladay LP: Jon Lester

Player of the Game: Roy Halladay (CG, ER, H, 8 K)

The opening game of our series highlighted a pitchers’ duel between two starters with no-hitters under their belts. Boston struck the first blow of the series with an RBI triple from Dustin Pedroia in the third inning to give the Sox a 1-0 advantage. Unfortunately for Red Sox Nation, that’s the only production the vaunted Boston lineup could muster, as Philadelphia starter Roy Halladay kept the Boston batters at bay.

Jon Lester held his own against the 2010 NL Cy Young winner, but a two-run double by Raul Ibanez in the seventh put the Phils on top 2-1. Ryan Howard added a groundout RBI in the eighth, providing more than enough insurance for Halladay, as Philadelphia took the first game of the series 3-1. Halladay pitched a complete game, surrendering just five hits while striking out eight.

Game 2
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Boston	0	3	0	Box Score
Philadelphia	1	9	0

WP: Cliff Lee LP: Bobby Jenks

Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (CG, SHO, 3 H, 6 K)

Simulation BA Leaders
Player	BA
Polanco	.294
Ruiz	.289
Youkilis	.284

Lee validated his $120 million deal by submitting a gem to his already impressive postseason résumé, shutting out the Red Sox in a 1-0 victory as Philadelphia marched out to a two-game series lead.

Clay Buchholz was just as electrifying, going seven innings without conceding a run. However, setup man Jenks yielded hits to Howard and Placido Polanco in the eighth, resulting in a go-ahead RBI single from Ibanez. Through two games, the Red Sox roster has managed just eight hits against the Philadelphia pitching staff.

Game 3
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Boston	8	14	0	Box Score
Philadelphia	3	10	1

WP: John Lackey LP: Cole Hamels

Player of the Game: Carl Crawford (4-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI)

The Boston bats finally awoke from their series slumber to light up the scoreboard for eight runs, as the Red Sox took Game 3 by a score of 8-3. Offseason acquisition Crawford was the catalyst for the offensive attack, belting two bombs and driving in four runs. Pedroia added three RBI of his own, and Sox starter John Lackey went the distance, allowing just three runs on the day.

While historically assertive in the postseason, Philadelphia pitcher Cole Hamels got shellacked for six runs on 11 hits in just five innings of work.

Game 4
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Philadelphia	8	11	0	Box Score
Boston	2	9	0

WP: Roy Oswalt LP: Josh Beckett

Player of the Game: Placido Polanco (3-for-4, 3 RBI)

The Fantastic 4
Philadelphia’s Starting Four ERA	(Avg.)
Halladay	4.23
Lee	2.96
Hamels	4.58
Oswalt	3.08

A barrage of line drives and walks correlated with success for Charlie Manuel’s squad, as Philadelphia’s 8-2 thrashing left the Phillies one game away from the title. Sox starter Josh Beckett was knocked out early, giving up six hits and issuing four walks in four innings. Third baseman Polanco contributed three hits and three RBI to spur Philly, with Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz each adding two hits to the cause.

Roy Oswalt shut down the Sox for eight innings, limiting Boston to two runs and striking out 10. While the pitching has been relatively solid, Boston’s lineup has been atrocious, as Kevin Youkilis (.059), J.D. Drew (.111) and Ortiz (hitless) have struggled mightily.

Game 5
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Philadelphia	3	7	0	Box Score
Boston	4	10	0

WP: Bobby Jenks LP: Roy Halladay

Player of the Game: Dustin Pedroia (2-for-5, game-winning RBI)

Boston evoked memories of its 2004 ALCS comeback with an extra-inning walk-off hit to avoid elimination in Game 5. A rematch of Game 1’s epic showdown between Halladay and Lester did not disappoint, as both men were still standing on the mound in the ninth inning.

A Crawford two-run single and a Youkilis double translated into a three-run third for the Sox, but Halladay survived the early-inning threat. The Phils managed a run off of a wild pitch in the fourth, and a Polanco single brought home Rollins in the sixth. But heading into the ninth, Boston led by a count of 3-2. Yet down to their last out, Ruiz lined a single to center off Lester to tie the game.

Nevertheless, the Sox would get the last laugh on this night, as hits from Marco Scutaro and Jacoby Ellsbury gave Pedroia a chance to be a hero. The former MVP obliged, sending a ground ball into right field as Boston came back to win the ball game 4-3.

Game 6
Teams	R	H	E	WIS Interactive
Boston	2	4	1	Box Score
Philadelphia	3	6	0

WP: Cliff Lee LP: Clay Buchholz SV: Brad Lidge

Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (7.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K)

Series Wins
Team	Total Series Wins (255 simulations)
Boston	67
Philadelphia	188

There’s much rejoicing in the City of Brotherly Love, as Lee delivered another postseason masterpiece on the way to a 3-2 win, clinching the series for Philadelphia. Lee whiffed 10 batters in 7.2 innings of work, holding Boston to four hits and two runs. Making his first appearance of the series, Brad “Lights Out” Lidge worked an eventful ninth, surrendering a walk to the tying run Gonzalez before striking out Ortiz and Jed Lowrie.

Chase Utley paced the Philadelphia offense with a two-run single in the third, while Scutaro smacked a solo shot in the losing effort for Boston. Lee earned series MVP honors with 16 strikeouts in 16.2 innings to go along with an ERA of 1.08.

Create your own World Series Dream Team from WhatIfSports.com.

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MLB: A Complete Breakdown With Predictions for the NL East

Now that the previews for the American League is complete, it’s time to start breaking down the National League. We’ll start off with the NL East, which on paper, looks over before it even begins.

It may be a silly statement to make, as there are other teams that can play well in the division, but who really thinks the team with four aces won’t run away with things?

It’ll be an interesting season for this division as it appears the team that’s always been on the bottom is making some nice improvements.

The biggest question has to be, will any team step up and surprise us by taking down the Phillies?

Philadelphia has won the last four NL East titles and if any of the four can do it, which team has the best shot? With all the moves made by every team, how will everything shape up?

Here’s the answers to those questions and more in a complete NL East preview with some predictions.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Philles and San Francisco Giants: Cliff Lee Vs Matt Cain

The Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants have two of the best pitching rotations in baseball heading into the 2011 season. The Phillies rotation is full of veteran leadership and true ace-caliber pitching. The Giants rotation is young, full of potential and battle tested. The Phillies are led by Roy Halladay, while Tim Lincecum sits atop the Giants rotation. Both are two-time Cy Young Award winners and considered among the few elite pitchers in baseball.

However, much of the debate when looking at these two rotations comes when comparing Cliff Lee and Matt Cain. Some like Cain, while others prefer Lee. I am going to look at the statistics of both Cain and Lee over the past three seasons to make an informed decision as to who I believe will be the better No. 2 starter in 2011.

I used Fangraphs as my source for statistics. Also, I am not going to explain all of the abbreviations I use. Head over to Baseball Prospectus if you need definitions.

In 2008, Cliff Lee won the American League Cy Young Award. He started 31 games, pitched 223.1 innings and finished with a 22-3 record. Cliff Lee also led the league with a 2.54 ERA and a 168 ERA+. Lee posted a K/BB: 5.0, while compiling a WHIP of 1.11. Lee’s FIP was 2.83, which does not differ much from his actual ERA showing just how effective Lee was in 2008.

His BABIP was .301 showing luck did not factor into his performance. Finally, Lee posted an astonishing WAR of 7.2. After reviewing Lee’s 2008 numbers, it is easy to see why he was named the AL Cy Young Award winner.

Matt Cain pitched 34 games and 217.2 innings while compiling an 8-14 record in 2008. Although an 8-14 record is not very impressive, I do not consider a pitchers record nearly as important as other statistics when trying to determine their actual value. There are too many factors which the pitcher cannot control when determining the winner/loser of a game.

Moving on…Cain posted an ERA of 3.76, ERA+ of 118 and WHIP of 1.36. Cain’s FIP was 3.91, just slightly higher than his actual ERA. All of these are good numbers, but not outstanding. His BABIP was .297, which is right around the league average showing, like Lee, his success should not be attributed to luck. Cain’s K/BB ratio of 2.04 was quite ordinary. Although Cain’s K/9 was 7.7, which was better than Lee’s 6.9, his BB/9 was 3.8, which was significantly worse than Lee’s 1.4. Cain’s 3.7 WAR was very good, but it was not elite.

2008 Advantage: Cliff Lee

In 2009, Cliff Lee started the season with the Indians before being traded midseason to the Philadelphia Phillies. Between the two teams he pitched 231.2 innings and started 34 games. He finished with a 14-13 record. Lee had a 3.22 ERA, an ERA+ of 131 and a WHIP of 1.24. Lee once again produced a FIP 3.11, almost identical to his actual ERA and a BABIP, .315, right around the norm. Lee’s K/BB ratio fell a bit from 2008 to 4.21.

Lee’s WAR value was calculated at 6.6. These are all numbers which are expected from a front of the rotation pitcher. Lee’s numbers dropped off a bit from his Cy Young performance in 2008, but that was expected. He still put up very impressive numbers across two leagues.

Matt Cain pitched 33 games and 217.2 innings in 2009. He finished with a record of 14-8. He produced an ERA of 2.89, ERA+ 148 and WHIP of 1.18. All of these numbers were better than Lee’s. However, Cain’s FIP was 3.89, which is a full run higher than his actual ERA. This would suggest his numbers may be a little better than they should have been. This could be attributed to his BABIP of .263 which is much lower than the norm of .300. Both his FIP and BABIP would suggest Cain was a little lucky in 2009 and should have posted higher numbers across the board. He once again posted a pedestrian 2.34 K/BB ratio.

Cain finished with a WAR of only 3.5, which was actually slightly less than his 2008 WAR.

2009 Advantage: Tie. Advanced statistics show Lee had a better 2009 but Cain put up a better ERA, WHIP and ERA+. Therefore, I would say this is a toss up.

2010 once again saw Lee switching teams midseason. He missed his first few starts because of injury, but still pitched 212.1 innings over 28 games. He compiled a 12-9 record. Lee posted an ERA of 3.18, ERA+ 130 and a WHIP of 1.00. These are very good numbers, however, his FIP, 2.58 suggests he was even better than those numbers. His 2.58 FIP was second best in the entire league for 2010. His BABIP was .287, once again showing his numbers were not effected much by luck.

Lee’s most astonishing number was his 10.28 K/BB ratio which led the league. For the season, Lee walked only 18 batters while striking out 185. Lee, by all accounts, had one of his best seasons in 2010. He finished with a WAR of 7.1 which was best in the league.

In 2010 Cain pitched 223.1 innings across 35 games. His record was 13-11. Cain posted an ERA of 3.14, ERA+ 130 and a WHIP of 1.084. However, once again his FIP, 3.65 was much higher than his actual ERA. His BABIP, .252, was also much lower than the norm. Both of these factors would suggest Cain benefited from luck in 2010 and should have had worse numbers than he actually posted.

His K/BB ratio rose slightly to 2.90, but was still nothing special. Especially when compared to Lee. Cain posted a good WAR of 4.0.

2010 Advantage: Cliff Lee. His K/BB ratio, WAR, and FIP place him among the elite pitchers in 2010.

As you can see, both pitchers are very good and most teams would be lucky to have them as their No. 1 starter, let alone their No. 2. However, the advantage must go to Cliff Lee here. Cain’s numbers suggest he has been greatly overachieving and it is too early to know if this will be a trend throughout his career. Cain is a fly ball pitcher, 42 percent career fly ball rate, and benefits greatly from pitching in AT&T Park: Home ERA 3.19/Road ERA 3.76.

This could also explain his huge differences in ERA and FIP. However, Cain is still a very solid pitcher. Lee has been consistently very good over the past three seasons and a move to the NL for a full season will only benefit him.

Therefore, in my opinion, Cliff Lee projects to be a better pitcher than Matt Cain in 2011.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trying To Catch Lightning In a Bottle With Tiny Signings

For what it’s worth, the Philadelphia Phillies made their fair share of noise this off-season. Even when lurking in the shadows, the Phillies would eventually come out on top, signing free agent left handed starter and prize of the 2011 off-season, Cliff Lee. Soon after the five year, $125 million deal became official, realizing that the Phillies had very little resources remaining was not exactly rocket science.

Now, Phillies’ General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was going to have to get creative. According to reports out of Boston, he tried to send incumbent starter, Joe Blanton, to the Boston Red Sox. With Blanton heading to Spring Training in Clearwater, Florida, that obviously never happened, and the Phillies’ payroll remained bloated to it’s extreme limit.

So with little payroll and a few areas that needed some work, Amaro had to operate like a thief in the night. The biggest remaining hole on the major league roster was in the bullpen. After declining former left handed reliever JC Romero’s $4.5 million club option, the team was in need of some left handed help. As it turns out, the new left handed reliever for the Phillies is the same as the old. After a deal with free agent Dennys Reyes took a turn for the worse, the Phillies and Romero agreed to terms on a one year, $1.35 million deal.

With the bullpen addressed, the biggest area of concern for the Phillies, outside of right field, was the system’s organizational depth. After trading away tons of young talent for the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt, the minor league affiliates were looking a little barren. Since top prospects aren’t readily available, Amaro turned his attention to players with high-reward potential.

Over the course of the off-season, before and after the Phillies signed Lee, the area of greatest concern to fans was the situation in right field. After an unimpressive debut in 2010, people wondered whether or not top prospect Domonic Brown was ready to take the reigns from his right field successor, Jayson Werth. The general consensus was that he was not ready.

It was at this point that Amaro revealed that the team was interested in platooning Brown in right field, and that they would seek a right handed hitter to pair with the young lefty. While interim right handed bat Ben Francisco provided good numbers against left handed pitching, the Phillies explored some options to provide competition for the job, showing interest in names like Matt Diaz, Jermaine Dye and Gary Matthews Jr.

However, with little money to spend, the Phillies invited a former promising young prospect to Spring Training—switch-hitting outfielder, Delwyn Young. After a few impressive seasons in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ organization, Young hooked on with the Pittsburgh Pirates and took on a more regular role. Needless to say, he was disappointing.

Over the course of his career, Young has been a better hitter from the right side of the plate. Though it isn’t likely that he’ll unseat the likes of Francisco, he should be an interesting name to watch in Spring Training, as he posted strong numbers against left handed pitching in 2010. He’ll battle for a spot on the Phillies’ bench, and should Francisco win the starting right field job, has a good chance of beating out John Mayberry Jr. for the final spot.

The Phillies also invited a pair of former high first round draft picks to camp this spring, hoping that they’ll be able to catch lightning in a bottle, the first of which is right handed reliever, Jason Grilli.

Grilli, who was drafted with the fourth overall pick of the 1997 draft by the San Francisco Giants, has been rather disappointing over the course of his career. To date, he has compiled a record of 18-18, with an ERA of 4.74. He’s been no better against right or left handed hitters in his career, so the most he’ll do for the Phillies in 2011 is provide some depth for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Interestingly enough, the Phillies also invited another player from the 1997 draft to camp—the top pick by the Detroit Tigers, right handed pitcher, Matt Anderson.

Anderson, 34, will be an interesting name to watch over the course of the spring. The former top prospect made his major league debut with the Tigers in 1998, logging 44 innings and posting a record of 5-1, with an ERA of 3.47. Sadly enough, injuries derailed the promising right hander’s career.

The Phillies are taking a flier on Anderson because of his potential, even as he enters his mid-30’s. When he was drafted in 1997, Anderson averaged 100mph on his fastball, and while the Phillies aren’t expecting that much velocity out of him, they’d like to see what he can do against major league hitters. He hasn’t faced MLB competition since he was with the Chicago White Sox’s AAA club in 2008.

There is a lot of potential heading in the Phillies’ spring camps, both major and minor league, in this form. Though Grilli and Anderson are likely to join the organization in some form, it’ll most likely be as depth in the event of an injury. However, should either man show a glimpse of the potential that made them top five selections in 1997, Amaro could cement his legend even further in the city of Philadelphia.

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What Makes Roy Halladay the Best Pitcher In Baseball

Roy Halladay was absolutely dominant last season.

He had a 21-10 record (which would have been higher had he received more run support), a 2.44 ERA, and 219 strikeouts. He pitched a perfect game on May 29 against the Florida Marlins. He pitched only the second postseason no-hitter ever on October 6 against the Cincinnati Reds.

Although Halladay did not lead the MLB in wins, ERA, or strikeouts, he was among the most consistent pitchers in the sport—his WHIP was 1.04, he only gave up 30 walks all season, and his K/9 ratio was 7.86. That’s impressive.

What makes Roy Halladay different from all other pitchers, though, is his work ethic. While most people might know that he is always staying in shape, a lesser known fact may be that he started working out for the 2011 season on December 1, and has continued to do so, almost—if not every day—since. That shows determination.

Roy Halladay has already proved his worth as a pitcher. He has won two Cy Young Awards, one in both the NL (2010) and AL (2003), being among a select group of players to achieve the feat. In each of his Cy Young Award winning seasons, Halladay was also his respective league’s wins champion.

He pitched two no-hitters in the same season in 2010, becoming only the sixth-ever pitcher to accomplish this, and the first since Nolan Ryan in 1973. Doing the math, that amounts to 38 years ago. That’s quite a long time ago.

While Roy Halladay’s first season with the Phillies last year was arguably his best ever, he did have quite the career in Toronto. He amounted a 148-76 record in 11 seasons there as their ace for many seasons, and he came within one out of a no-hitter in just his second-career start. While he was sent down to the minor leagues again in 2000, he bounced back and quickly rose to greatness once again.

Among his career achievements are seven All-Star selections, most recently in 2010. He also won two “This Year in Baseball Awards” for 2010 Starting Pitcher of the Year and 2010 Postseason Moment of the Year for his no-hitter in his first career postseason start. He was also awarded the MLB 2010 Clutch Player of the Year award.

Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league today, and being backed by such a rotation as his current one is astounding.

He had a career season last year, but it will only get better from here on out.

Roy Halladay is, in my mind, undoubtedly the best pitcher in baseball and is the leading candidate to win the Cy Young Award next season.

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Brad Lidge May Be Most Vital Piece to a Philadelphia Phillies Championship Run

Las Vegas has posted its odds for the World Series winner, and to nobody’s surprise, the Philadelphia Phillies are 3-1 favorites to win it all. Next come the New York Yankees at 5-1, the Boston Red Sox at 6-1 and the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants at 10-1. 

The signing of Cliff Lee definitely puts the Phillies at the head of the pack. Even if Lee did not sign, the Phillies likely would have had one of the top two starting rotations in the National League, rivaled only by the Giants. 2But with Cliff Lee, there is no doubt Philadelphia has the best starting rotation in the Major Leagues and some may argue the best ever. 

Cole Hamels would easily be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter for almost any other team in the majors. A powerful left-handed pitcher is a much prized commodity in MLB, but Hamels is relegated to the No. 4 position on the current Phillies staff. 

The likely rotation from one to four will be Cy Young winner Roy Halladay, 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, who was the No. 1 starter for Houston for many years, and Hamels. One could argue the World Series is in the bag for Philly.

Not so fast. Looking at history, there is one team that had a starting rotation similar to the 2011 Phillies: the Atlanta Braves. 

The Braves made the transition from perennial loser to perennial champion in 1991, but their starting staff became dominant in 1993 when they signed Greg Maddux. 

The Braves had already come off of two pennant winning seasons but no championships. The Braves won 104 games the year Maddux signed but did not even win the pennant despite such dominant starting pitching. 

From 1993-1999, the Braves would enter the season with a starting rotation consisting of three Cy Young award winners: John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux. They were accompanied by top pitchers like Steve Avery, Kevin Millwood, Denny Neagle and Kent Mercker.  Despite such a dominant pitching staff filled with Cy Young award winners and top tier pitchers, the Braves could only win one World Championship. 

There are many reasons the experts cite for why the Braves did not win more than one World Series, but I will argue that the main reason is they did not possess a front line closer until 1995. 

From 1993-1995 (’94 was a strike shortened year), the Braves closers were Mike Stanton, Greg McMichael and a young Mark Wohlers. Though they were good pitchers, they were not the front line closer needed to win a championship. 

Enter 1995. Mark Wohlers has four years of experience under his belt along with his 99-100 mph fastball, and he has his best season in the MLB saves wise with 25. He had 7 saves his previous three years combined, and the Braves won their one and only World Championship during their period of dominance in the NL East.

Enter 2011. The Phillies now have two Cy Young award winners along with two pitchers that would be No. 1 or No. 2 pitchers on most MLB teams. Seems very similar to the Braves, but unlike the Braves, the Phillies have a front line closer in Brad Lidge. 

Since Lidge’s arrival in 2008, the Phillies have won two pennants and have played in the playoffs all three years he has been with the team. 

But Lidge can be streaky. Lidge already was a top tier closer with the Houston Astros until Oct. 18, 2005.

That was Game 5 of the NLCS. It was the top of the ninth with two out and two Cardinals on base. Albert Pujols was at bat. Lidge hung a slider to Pujols that he hit for a three run homer. Lidge was never the same, and Houston let him go after the 2007 season. 

A change of scenery was the best thing that happened to Lidge as he has resurrected and reclaimed his dominant role as a top tier closer. He did have struggles in the 2009 and 2010 seasons but was able to regain his form in time for the playoff run. 

But what if Lidge loses it again? 

Unless they can find an answer at the back end of their bullpen, the mighty Phillies —who everyone thinks will win it all—may fall to the same fate as most of the Braves team of the ’90s. 

Braves history shows that a dominant closer is crucial for a championship run. The Phils have one in Lidge, but he has shown a history of being inconsistent. If he pitches like the inconsistent Brad Lidge we have seen glimpses of in the past, Philadelphia may not make the championship run everyone is predicting. 

Despite all the fuss about the Phillies starters, Lidge must have a good year as a closer. Otherwise, the Phillies could suffer the same fate as the Braves teams did.

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Philadelphia Phillies Preview: 33 Over/Unders to Keep the Season Interesting

Countdown ‘Til Pitchers and Catchers Report: Two Days

For us red-blooded baseball lovers, it is no coincidence that the start of spring training and Valentine’s Day come together each year. I hope that my readers will greet both events with great excitement and a little extra hop in the step, although I prefer to write only about the first one.

As exciting as any spring training is—and Spring Training 2011 is particularly thrilling for Phillies fans—my goal is to make the coming regular season just a little more interesting. Perhaps I’m taking my cue from the recent Super Bowl.

I am not a betting man, but I threw in a couple shekels last Sunday for a chance to win some of my friends’ money based on 26 prop bets that our host came up with. Nothing was too creative, and most related to the Super Bowl itself; about five of the questions related to the coin flip, commercials and the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach.

Yes, I ended up making a small donation, and I’m not advising anybody to bet any real money on the following. But in previewing a season that Phils fans accept as a given that their team will make the playoffs for the fifth straight time, these prop bets may add just a little intrigue to the formality of the regular season.

In honor of Cliff Lee, I propose 33 (mostly) over-and-unders to keep track of during the 2011 regular season. I have not researched Vegas odds for any of this, so if you’ve seen any of these numbers elsewhere, it’s purely coincidental.

 

PITCHERS AND CATCHERS

1. Combined wins by R2C2 (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels):  71

Last year, the four pitchers combined for only 58 wins, deceptive as I think that number was.

2. Combined innings by R2C2: 850

Last year, the four hurlers amassed an amazing 881.7.

3. Combined strikeouts for R2C2: 800

Last year, they combined for 808 K.

4. Combined complete games for R2C2: 20

Last year, they combined for 19.

5. Wins by Joe Blanton in a Phils uniform: 6

Big Joe was 9-6 last season, and he won 12 the year before, but how long will he be here?

6. Saves for Brad Lidge: 33

Brad saved only 27 in 2010, but has averaged 33 during his three years in red pinstripes.

7. Batting average for Carlos Ruiz: .285

Chooch hit a remarkable .302 last season, boosting his career BA to .260.

8. Homers for Chooch: 11

He belted eight last year, and nine in 2009.

 

THE REST OF THE LINEUP

9. Home runs for Ryan Howard:  44

The Big Piece has averaged 45.8 in his last five (full) seasons, but knocked only 31 out of the yard last season.

10. RBI for Howard: 136

Yes, that’s a big number, but even factoring in his drop last year (108), Howard has averaged 136 over his five full seasons.

11. Whiffs for Howard:  180

Howard only whiffed 151 times last year, he averaged 191 in his previous four campaigns.

12. Games played for Chase Utley: 145

Utley only played in 115 games last season, but had averaged 151 in his previous five seasons.

13. Homers for Chase: 28

Chase only popped 16 last season; he averaged 29-plus in his previous five.

14. HBP for Chase: 23

He did not move away from 18 pitches last season in limited at-bats, he averaged an NL-high 25.3 the previous three seasons.

15. Games played for Jimmy Rollins: 145

Rollins played in only 88 last year, but he played in at least 154 games in eight of his previous nine campaigns.

16. Runs scored for Jimmy: 105

This seems high as J-Roll only crossed home plate 48 times in 2010. In his previous six seasons, he averaged about 113 runs.

17.  Stolen bases for Rollins: 32

He dropped to 17 last season, but in the last 10 years he has swiped a total of 340. You can do the math.

18. Placido Polanco’s batting average: .300

Polly, about as consistent a hitter as you’ll find, hit .298 last year, his career BA is .303

19. Will Polanco reach 2,000 career hits before or after September 15?

Polly, who is 35, starts the season at 1,836.

20. Games played for Wilson Valdez: 55

Last year’s supersub played in a career-high 111 last season, almost tripling his previous high.

21. Will Raul Ibanez finish the season in a Phillies uniform?

22. RBI for Raul: 90

Raul rallied to end up with 83 last season, after knocking in 93 the season before. He topped 100 in each of his final three seasons as a Seattle Mariner.

23. Batting average for Shane Victorino:  .285

The ever-popular Flyin’ Hawaiian slumped to .259 last season, but the career .279 hitter had topped .285 four of his previous five seasons.

24. Homers for Shane: 13

Shane popped 18 last season. That was a personal best, but many Phils fans would sacrifice about 10 of those for a more consistent approach at the plate (and 25 or so more line drives).

25. At-bats for Domonic Brown: 250

Brown joined the parent club on July 28, and registered 62 at-bats on the season.

26. Homers for D-Brown: 14

Two of Brown’s blasts reached the seats (in fair territory) last year.

27. Games played for Ben Francisco: 115

Francisco played in 88 games last season, sometimes relegated to a defensive replacement, or pinch-hitting appearance.  (They all count, of course.)

28. Ben’s batting average: .270

Francisco hit .268 last season, and carries a lifetime .263 mark.

29. Homers for Ross Gload: 8

Gload blasted six in 2010, in only 128 at-bats.

 

TEAM NUMBERS

30. Total Wins in 2011: 100

Last season, the Fightins won 97, the most in the majors.

31. Games ahead at the All-Star break: 4

32. Games the Phils will win the NL East by: 7

They won by six games in 2010.

33. Games the Phils will finish ahead of the New York Mets: 13

It was a margin of 18 last year, but can the Mets be that bad again?

Okay, time to go to work, and kill some of the remaining hours until pitchers and catchers report. If I hit any of these numbers on the button, please feel free to send some of your mythical winnings to the house, care of my email address or BR’s private message service.

Play ball!

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com

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