Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Things to Ponder as Spring Training Rounds the Bend

Maybe it’s just me, but this offseason has seemed incredibly long. From the moment that Cliff Lee’s deal with the Philadelphia Phillies became official on December 15, 2010, to Phillies fans, the wait for Spring Training never felt longer.

The days seemed like weeks and the weeks, like months. Now that pitchers and catchers are reporting in just two days, the feeling is almost too good to be true.

With that in mind, however, not everything can be roses, even for a team that has a legitimate staff of four aces. Even the Phillies have numerous questions surrounding their arrival in Clearwater, Florida, and though some of them have been given the “dead horse” treatment, the following story lines are certainly worth keeping an eye on throughout Spring Training.

Take a look at the top five Spring Training questions the Phillies will look to resolve and/or answer before re-packing that bus with equipment and heading north to Philadelphia in a little more than a month.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Bounce Back Player Alert: Jimmy Rollins

Until baseball starts, this column will be highlighting players I’m looking at for a significant jump in stats over last year.

 Week 1’s Selection: Jimmy Rollins

 J-Roll is coming off his worst statistical season since becoming a full time major leaguer. He’s 32 years old, had a rash of leg injuries last season and his game is heavily dependent upon speed.

Right about now, you’re probably wondering why I would pick him as a bounce back player for 2011.

Well, I have 3 good reasons:

1)  He’s healthy again after a full offseason of workouts and his new found fondness for yoga.

2)  He’s extremely likely to be hitting in the #5 spot, which will give him a lot of RBI chances in the Philadelphia lineup.

3)  IT’S A CONTRACT YEAR! He knows he has to produce to get paid. Isn’t it funny how that always seems to help?

With those factors and the lack of quality depth at shortstop, I’d safely bet on Rollins being a top five shortstop again this year, with the potential to end up as high as third.

2011 Fantasy Forecast: 85 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, 25 SB, .265 Avg

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Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies: What to Expect for the 2011 Season

For the first time in the past few offseasons, the closing pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, Brad Lidge, is ending his season at 100 percent health, which has allowed him to have an extremely rigorous offseason of training.

Lidge has not had productive offseasons for the past few years due to an injury to his throwing elbow. The 2010-2011 offseason is different for Lidge.

Lidge has often been the target of criticism ever since he failed to match the numbers he had in 2008, where he had 41 saves in 41 opportunities, including the offseason. To be honest, after the first half of the season that Lidge had in 2010, it is somewhat justified.

Preceding the 2010 All-Star break, Lidge had a 4.60 ERA with only six saves in nine opportunities. In the 15.2 innings pitched before the break, he allowed 15 hits, eight earned runs and three home runs.

However, after the All-Star break, Lidge’s numbers shot up drastically. In 30 innings pitched following the break, Lidge had 21 saves out of 23 save opportunities. During that course of time, he only allowed seven earned runs and two home runs, both of which were one less than those respective stats for the first half of the season, where he pitched half the number of innings. This allowed Lidge’s ERA for the second half of the season to be as good as 2.10.

It should also be noted that the batting average against Lidge for the first half of the season was .250, whereas it was .192 for the second half of the season. After the conclusion of July through the postseason, Lidge had 19 saves out of 20 opportunities.

Overall for 2010, Lidge had an ERA of 2.96 with 27 saves, 52 strikeouts, 24 walks and a WHIP of 1.23. Obviously, the numbers from the first half of the season drove his overall numbers up.

Lidge, and the Phillies in general, hope that Lidge can replicate the numbers he had for the second half of the 2010 season for the entirety of the 2011 season. His chances of starting strong in 2011 are much greater than they have been in doing so because he is not nursing an injury through the offseason.

Lidge has been training hard this offseason and will be starting spring training (on Monday) in a better situation than he has in the previous few seasons.

The chances he has to produce like he did after the 2010 All-Star break are greater because of his training this offseason being in place of the rehabilitation that he has gone through in the previous years. Lidge will be working hard to perfect his training and performance during spring training, and his chances at perfection have not been this good in quite some time.

Lidge has been throwing regularly and at the rate that he needs to pitch at to be effective. Lidge has not only been healthy, he has also been able to maintain his top-notch ability through the offseason thus far. He has made the proper moves to make sure that he has not lost the effectiveness he had for the second half of last season. This is all paired with his hunger to be the world champion again.

Expect Lidge to be hungry, healthy and performing at the ability level that he performed at from August through October in 2010. With Lidge’s offseason health being 100 percent, and with his participating in a great offseason training program, expect him to improve upon his 2010 season’s numbers and have a season closer to his 2008 season, where he had an ERA of 1.95 with 41 saves.

Lidge will greatly improve upon his 2010 season based on his great offseason health and training, in addition to having the honor of pitching behind Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, plus the quality setup relief of Ryan Madson.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Batting Order Projection and Where Each Player Fits Best

With pitchers and catchers reporting Monday and the full team beginning spring training shortly after, the only major change for the Philadelphia Phillies among the starting position players will be the absence of Jayson Werth. 

There has been a lot of debate over who will replace Werth in the outfield and in the lineup.  There has been talk about platooning right field with either Ben Francisco and Dominic Brown or Francisco and Ross Gload.

Looking at the depth chart provided by ESPN.com, Brown is the first player listed for right field. 

Personally, Francisco is my favorite for winning the full-time starting position, as I believe that he can replace the run production of Werth completely, just doing so with less home runs. 

Francisco can produce runs because he can drive in as many RBI, since he is a better contact hitter than Werth.  The numbers of Francisco and Werth are directly proportionate to one another once playing time of each respective player is accounted for. 

The Phillies website differs from ESPN, because it has Francisco listed first for right field and Brown listed third, which strengthened my favor towards Francisco even further.

Another conversation that has hit the surface regarded what the batting order will be for the team this year. 

Based on split statistics, I believe that the best batting order for the Phillies will be, in order, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Ben Francisco or Dominic Brown (depending on which of the two are playing that day), Carlos Ruiz, and Placido Polanco. 

This is based off of each of these players’ batting history at different spots in the order.  If you do not feel comfortable having slots two, three and four being left-handed batters, you could switch Polanco and Utley, but I feel much more comfortable with Polanco being at the end of the lineup than I do with Utley being there.

Of the nine different Phillies that I analyzed for this, I ranked them for each spot in the order with regards to how each player batted in that spot.  Not everyone batted in each spot in the order, so not each player will be ranked in every spot.

Victorino was easily the best hitter in the leadoff spot, followed by Polanco then Rollins. 

Victorino batted .276 at leadoff, whereas Polanco batted .273 and Rollins .241.  The difference between Victorino and Polanco is the on-base percentage, which was .345 for Victorino and .304 for Polanco at leadoff. 

Leadoff was Victorino’s second-best batting position, the fifth spot being his best.  In the fifth spot he batted for .313 with an on-base percentage of .353.  However, Victorino should leadoff, not only because he was the best, but because although his batting average was better fifth, his on-base percentage was only less than one percent better in that spot.

The second spot in the batting order was ranked, in order, Polanco, Utley, Victorino, and Ibanez. 

Although there are four names mentioned here, the competition is really only between Polanco and Utley.  Polanco batted for .303 with on-base percentage of .346, whereas Utley batted for an average of .257 with an on-base percentage of .350.  So, although Utley batted for a worse average than Polanco, his on-base percentage was a little better. 

Part of the reason that Utley should be batting second is because of the improvements offensively of the person that should be batting third, which is actually Utley’s best place in the order.

For the third spot in the order, Utley batted for an average of .282 with an on-base percentage of .395, but his offensive performance in the second spot is very comparable to his performance in the third spot. 

The overall ranking for the third spot in the batting order is Ibanez, Polanco, Utley and Rollins, but Rollins is not really in contention with this spot. 

Ibanez is an easy favorite for the third spot in the batting order.  His numbers there were a batting average of .350 and an on-base percentage of .430.  Ibanez is the best fit for batting third, because his batting average improved by .080 and his on-base percentage by .088 from where he usually batted.  If Ibanez can maintain a .430 on-base percentage at third, he is the best option to hit there.

Ibanez is technically the best fit for batting fourth when it comes to average and on-base percentage, but I do not think that there is any chance that Howard will bat anywhere else in the lineup.  Howard also has much more power than Ibanez, so Howard will be batting fourth, and everyone else will fit around him.

The fifth spot in the batting order is easily favored by Rollins. 

The other contenders for that spot are Victorino and Francisco.  As previously mentioned, Victorino’s best spot in the lineup was fifth, but Rollins is still easily the favorite for that spot.  Rollins batted for an average of .400 with an on-base percentage of .417 and a slugging average of .700 while batting fifth, which are very impressive numbers.  Rollins would easily be best fit to follow Howard in the batting order.

Rollins was also the best batter for the sixth spot in the lineup, but he is easily favored to bat fifth in the batting order. 

That allows the Phillies to place Francisco in the sixth spot in the lineup.  Francisco was second best in the sixth spot, batting with an average of .306 and an on-base percentage of .370. 

Sixth is also where Brown batted best as well, with an average of .256 and an on-base percentage of .273.  Whichever of these two players wins—the favorite according to these numbers is Francisco—will be best fit to bat sixth in the lineup.  Brown was actually ranked fifth for the sixth spot, but the two players between Francisco and Brown are easy fits in other spots in the lineup.

With the seventh spot in the batting order, there really is no competition.  Ruiz is easily the favorite to bat seventh. 

Ruiz usually batted eighth, where his numbers were a batting average of .263 with an on-base percentage of .398 and a slugging average of .351.  When Ruiz batted seventh in the lineup, he batted for an average of .337 with an on-base percentage of .407 and a slugging average of .524.  His numbers are much better, except for the small improvement with on-base percentage, at the seventh spot, making him an easy favorite to bat there.

Another way that the batting order could be arranged, from first to last, is Polanco Utley, Ibanez, Howard, Victorino, Rollins, Ruiz, and Francisco or Brown, although I am not that comfortable having a potentially big run producer like Francisco or Brown at the bottom of the order. 

I would feel much more comfortable with having a contact hitter with minimal power at the bottom of the lineup.  It is a given that Francisco or Brown have much more power than Polanco, which is why Polanco is the best fit at the bottom of the order, keeping the order as Victorino, Utley, Ibanez, Howard, Rollins, Francisco or Brown, Ruiz and Polanco.

That is my projection for the 2011 batting order. 

The players I placed in the first, third, fifth and seventh spots in the batting order were the players who batted the best in those spots in the batting order in 2010. 

The players that I placed in the second, fourth and sixth spots in the batting order were those who finished second best in those spots in the rotation in 2010, and the ones who finished best in those respective spots were best fits in one of the other spots in the lineup. 

The only legitimate way that I could see the lineup being better would be to have the pitcher bat eighth and have Polanco bat ninth to have him start the wrap-around of the lineup.

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Philadephia Phillies: 10 Reasons Domonic Brown Will Start Season in the Minors

Dominic Brown’s future in the Major Leagues is bright.  He’s 6’5, has speed, quickness, baseball instincts, and is looked at as a “five-tool” player. 

However, the Phillies need to recognize where Brown is at in his career before they throw him into a starting role, or should I say the lion’s den.

Here’s some reasons why Brown will start the season in the minors.

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Should Philadelphia Phillies Leadoff Hitter Be Jimmy Rollins or Shane Victorino?

Coming off a year plagued with injuries, Jimmy Rollins has many reasons to rebound in 2011.

But should he bat leadoff or should the job pass to Shane Victorino?

In 2010, Victorino took the majority of the at-bats in the leadoff spot while Rollins nursed a sore calf.

In 348 at-bats in the leadoff spot, Victorino posted a .276 batting average; Rollins, in 294 at-bats in the same spot, batted only .242.

And although Rollins was injured much of 2010, his 2009 numbers are not much better. In 640 at-bats that season, Rollins hit just .245 as the leadoff hitter.

In fact, since his 2007 MVP year, there has been a steady decline in Rollins’ performance. Whether that is due to age, injuries or a combination of both is not certain. But with 2011 being a contract year for J-Roll, he should have plenty of motivation to get into better shape and improve.

Victorino is two years younger, but has also had his share of injuries. Also, neither player is a typical leadoff hitter: Both Rollins and Victorino are aggressive at the plate and routinely swing at first pitches.

This approach does seem to work for Victorino, who batted .352 when swinging at the first pitch in 2010. Similarly, Rollins hit .333 in the same situation.

Both players have speed on their side, but Rollins may be more tentative than Victorino after dealing with so many leg issues in 2010.

And then there is the psychological battle to be fought. For years, Rollins has been the engine that kicks this team’s offense into gear. Without him at the top of the lineup, the offense seems to fizzle. 

But this magical momentum Rollins provides is more mental than physical. In order to change the entire team’s outlook on the situation, the Phillies would need to start off the year with Victorino in the top spot.

This is by no means an easy decision. If Rollins has a comeback type of year, he should be in the leadoff position.

But there is no way to know how it will go until it actually happens.

And if they start the year with Rollins batting leadoff and he flops, the transition to switch Victorino into that spot will be more difficult. 

So who should it be? Right now, a slight edge goes to Victorino.

But if Rollins catches fire in spring training, he could reclaim that edge.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 8 Bold Predictions for a Season of Brilliance

If the Phillies were playing poker they’d use the phrase “All-in” for the 2011 season.  After failing to win the World Series for the second season in a row in 2010, and falling to the San Franciso Giants in the NLCS, Phillies ownership decided to stretch its budget and bring back the post-season star who never wanted to leave in the first place.  With Cliff Lee joining an already stacked rotation the Phillies find themselves as the favorites to get back to baseball’s biggest stage—and this time they expect to bring the trophy back to Philadelphia!!

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Reasons They Can’t Afford To Trade Joe Blanton

There’s been a lot of opinions about whether or not the Philadelphia Phillies should trade Joe Blanton. If they make a trade, they could free up some salary space.

But Phillies GM Ruben Amaro doesn’t seem too worried about the salary room. It seems like Blanton is safe in Philly…for now at least. But who knows what kinds of things are going on behind closed doors.

Here are 10 reasons why Philadelphia can’t afford to trade Blanton.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Power Ranking 10 Players To Watch in Spring Training

Some people look down on Spring Training saying that “it is just a warm up for the players,” “the real payers don’t play much,” “you can’t predict anything from it.”

Truth is, Spring Training is a great way to judge how a player is performing coming into the season.  A player can come in hot and hit 10 homers in April or a player can come in cold and bat under .100 for the first few months.  Obviously these are not the only two possibilities, but you get the idea. Performance in Spring Training shows how a player will do in the regular season.

During Spring Training a player can secure himself a role on the team, a prospect can show what he’s got, a bench player can step up to a starting role or any number of possibilities.

This Spring Training there are a few storylines for the Phillies that every fan should be watching, and these are those storylines.

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MLB Power Rankings: Ranking The Teams In The NL East Position by Position

With the regular season coming closer and closer we are all trying to predict how each player and team will do.  If you are a fantasy baseball player then you need to figure out who will have a good year and who will struggle.  This list ranks the NL East starters by position.

We can all agree that the Phillies have the best starting rotation in the NL East, but who’s next?  And who’s the best at the other positions?

A team cannot win if they are only good in one position, they must be good at all of them.  The Phillies’ pitching is great, but if they aren’t the best in other categories then will they still win the division?

This list will show which teams are the best position by position and show potential teams to beat the Phillies for the divisional title.  I will also give explanations as to why which team is the best at a certain position, and rank all five NL East teams.

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