MLB Spring Training: Wild Philadelphia Phillies Predictions

As MLB Spring Training approaches, predictions are being thrown around like snowballs in winter.

For the Phillies organization, losing a big offensive star in Jayson Werth was met with the arrival of pitching ace Cliff Lee.

When the opportunity arose for me to make some wild predictions of my own for the upcoming season, I couldn’t resist.

The following slideshow is my five wild predictions for the 2011 MLB season pertaining to the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Ruben Amaro Is Team MVP

For Philadelphia Phillies fans, February 12th cannot come soon enough; that’s when pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater, Florida.

Expectations have never been higher in the entire 121 year history of Philadelphia professional baseball. Behind four of the top pitchers in the game in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels and a lineup that features two former MVPs and perennial and potential all-stars.

Quite simply, Philadelphia is in “Baseball Heaven.”

The Phightin’s have won four straight National League East titles. They have appeared in three straight National League Championship Series, (NLCS) winning two of them, had the best record in the entire Major Leagues last year at 97-65 and won the World Series in 2008.

The Phillies are loaded with some of the most talented, respected and highly-regarded names in all of sports.

Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley to name a few. Oh my!

Over the past five seasons, we have seen this team go from a solid, competitive team to a powerhouse that has been favored to come out of the National League the past three years by Vegas. 

How have they become this powerhouse? Well, the fans have been a HUGE reason why the team has been able to go out and acquire top-name talent. Others may argue that they are so successful because the core group of homegrown players have turned into top players at their respective positions.

But here is why Ruben Amaro is the MVP of the Phillies since he has taken over as general manager in 2008.

After learning under hall of famer Pat Gillick for three years as assistant GM, Amaro took over as head honcho. Since taking over as GM for the Phillies, Amaro has brought in more talent in the span of three years than any other GM in MLB.

Not only has Amaro brought in top-flight talent, he has brought in players with top-flight character.

Phillies Nation can look to a lot of players for the success of the Phillies, but here is a look at some of the players Amaro has brought in either through trade or free agency since he took over in 2008, and you will see why Ruben is TEAM MVP.

 

Brian Schneider

Schneider was acquired via free agency on a two-year contract.

Schneider has provided depth for Chooch and is a player that the pitchers on the team feel comfortable with when Carlos Ruiz needs a blow.

Placido Polanco

Amaro signed Polanco (who had played second base for the Detroit Tigers) on a three-year contract. Polanco was switched to third base and proceeded to bat .298, have an OBP of .339 and a .726 OPS. He also added six HR and 52 RBI.

Polanco is the type of hitter that the Phillies’ lineup had been lacking for years. He strikes out very rarely (evidenced by just 47 K in 554 AB) has a great eye (32 BB in ’10) and is capable of moving the runner along either by bunting or hitting.

Polanco’s defense has not been too shabby either. He has been named a Gold Glover twice with the Tigers and he committed just five errors last season while showing great range. A pretty seamless transition to say the least.

Cliff Lee

Amaro originally acquired Lee from the Cleveland Indians in August of 2009 at the trade deadline. While with the Phillies in 2009, Lee went 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts while racking up an impressive 79.2 IP. Oh yeah, he had 74 K to just 10 BB.

Lee was the extra help that the Phillies needed to get back to the World Series for the second consecutive year. In the playoffs, Lee posted a ridiculous 4-0 record in five starts and had two complete games. His ERA was an insane 1.56. In five games started, he pitched 40.1 innings, allowed just 27 hits and seven earned runs.

Amaro decided to trade Lee when the season was over to “replenish the farm system.” Phillies fans were upset, but they got over it when Amaro acquired…

Roy Halladay

“Doc” Halladay was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in December of 2009.

Everyone knows how this worked out for us: Halladay compiled a 21-10 record with a mind-blowing 2.44 ERA and 219 K.

Halladay lived up to the hype and more during his first year with the team that he took less money to join. Halladay threw nine complete games for the third straight season!

Halladay was so ridiculously good that his amazing May 29th perfect game was arguably his second-best start of the season, outdone by an unforgettable Oct. 6th no-hitter that was only the second in postseason history.

Did I mention he won the Cy Young? And Lee is back! Enough said.

Roy Oswalt

Oswalt was acquired from the Houston Astros at the July trade deadline of the 2010 season.

Not only did Amaro somehow manage to AGAIN get the best player available at the deadline, but our old friend Ed Wade decided to hand us $11 million to help pay the $23 million price tag of Oswalt.

Oswalt down the stretch may have been the best Phillie. He went 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA.

P.S.: We saw him play a pretty good left field, just in case Raul Ibanez goes down.

Other players brought in by Amaro: Ibanez, Ben Francisco, Jose Contreras, Mike Sweeney, Ross Gload, Wilson Valdez and Scott Eyre, to name a few.

 

Hopefully by now you get the point. Amaro has this team locked and loaded for the 2011 season and beyond.

Time and time again he has somehow snuck under the radar of ESPN, FOX and every other sports station’s coverage of trades and free agency and has landed the top talent available. He has the Phillies’ rotation LOADED with a rotation for the ages.

He has clearly built a top notch locker room atmosphere, evidenced by the fact that Lee and Halladay left millions of dollars in guaranteed money on the table just to be a part of it! Spring Training can not start soon enough.

Cheers to Philly Nation towards another World Series and cheers to Amaro, team MVP, to keep em’ coming.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Top 10 Players To Fill Holes In Outfield After 2011

I know that it is way to early to be thinking about the 2012 season, as the 2011 season has not even started yet, or is it? Some teams as of right now know that they will not have a chance for the World Series, and some of those teams are probably already eying players who are due to hit the free agent market after the conclusion of the current season. It is wise for all teams to look at this point in time at the holes that may be left in their current roster after this season and see who will fit into that hole.

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies lost Jayson Werth to free agency, which has left a big question mark in the Phillies lineup to see who will replace Werth. Initially, there was talk about seeking the free agents to fill this hole. Names like Matt Diaz, Jeff Francoeur, and, the much coveted, Carl Crawford. The potential for all of these players sifted away when the Phillies signed Cliff Lee, which is perfectly fine with me and most Phillies fans.

In this coming offseason, Raul Ibanez is due for his contract to expire. Ibanez may be turning 39 years-old in June, but he still proved to be within the top three offensive producers for the Phillies in 2010, with the second highest on-base percentage following the All-Star break. So will the Phillies resign him or let himgo and find an in house replacement or seek free agency.

This list will contain outfielders that are due for free agency or are within the Phillies organization already that could fill the hole in the outfield.

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Michael Young: Would He Be a Good Fit with the Philadelphia Phillies?

Michael Young has played his entire career with the Texas Rangers. He has put up some pretty impressive numbers during his career, averaging 17 HR, 87 RBI, a .300 BA and a .795 OPS. He has posted these numbers while switching positions twice already, and if he plays with the Rangers in 2011, he will once again switch positions.

Young is considered a leader within the Rangers clubhouse. However, he has become expendable with the emergence of Elvis Andrus and the acquisitions of Adrian Beltre (3B) and Mike Napoli (DH/C). The Rangers are trying to gain some payroll flexibility, and moving the remaining three years and $48 million of Young’s contract is the most logical move for Texas. Therefore, Young has been openly shopped the past few months with the Rockies looking like the most likely destination to date.

Enter the Philadelphia Phillies. The only way this trade will work is if Young is capable/willing to play RF or LF. I am not sure if LF or RF are viable options for a 34-year-old career infielder. I am merely suggesting the Phillies kick the tires on a trade for Young.

Young would provide the Phillies with the right-handed, middle-of-the-order bat the team has been looking for since losing Jayson Werth this offseason. He would provide protection for Ryan Howard in the middle of the lineup. Young would also allow Ben Francisco to resume his role as the fourth outfielder or be used as a part of a platoon with Raul Ibanez. Domonic Brown would be free to start the year in Triple-A where he will receive regular at-bats every day.

The most important part of this trade would be the money and players exchanged. The trade I would propose for the Phillies would be Joe Blanton and possibly a fringe prospect for Young and $4-$8 million. After losing out on Cliff Lee, it is no secret the Rangers are looking for pitching. The Phillies are trying to unload Blanton mainly to cut payroll, but I believe a deal like this could sway them to actually take on some payroll.

The Phillies would offload the two years and $17 million left on Blanton’s contract and pick up Young’s remaining contract. Since we can’t guarantee how much, if any, money the Rangers would chip in, I’m not going to speculate. Basically the Phillies would be spending $7.5 million extra this season for Young and $31 million extra over the life of the contract.

So the Phillies would pay Young $7.5 million in 2011, $7.5 million in 2012 and $16 million in 2013. With Ibanez coming off the books next season and Dom Brown presumably ready to play in the majors full time in 2012, the Phillies could surely afford this even with the raises already guaranteed to other players.

Also, if Rollins continues to decline and is not willing to take a pay cut when he signs a new contract, the Phillies could always switch Young back to shortstop. Just a thought.

Like I said before, this is just speculation and most likely will not happen. I am just wondering what people think of a possible Blanton and Young swap.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 33: Why Cliff Lee’s Move To the NL Isn’t a Factor

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Less than four years ago, Cliff Lee was sent down to Single-A in an attempt to resurrect his career. In three seasons since, the crafty southpaw has averaged 222 innings, 16 wins, 7.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP per season with four different MLB teams.

In 2010, Lee posted a minuscule walk rate of 0.76, the lowest since Carlos Silva (0.43 BB/9) in 2005. Lee also led the league in first-pitch strike rate last year, firing the first pitch across the plate 69.8 percent of the time (MLB average 58.8 percent).

His contact rate (84.1 percent in 2010, 83.5 percent career, 80.7 percent MLB average) has always been high and his strikeout totals aren’t overwhelming. Luckily, Lee doesn’t have to have dominant stuff given the Phillies’ defense.

Although Lee’s shift back to the N.L. might appear beneficial, his N.L./A.L. splits since 2008 are very similar:

• N.L.: 181.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.50 K/9, 1.29 BB/9
• A.L.: 486 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.13 K/9, 1.35 BB/9

It is important to note, however, that Lee has fared very well in limited action at Citizens Bank Park:

• 35.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.11 K/9, 1.26 BB/9

Given a fourth-consecutive season of 210-plus innings, there’s every reason to believe Lee will perform as a top-five fantasy pitcher. Draft the 32-year-old with confidence.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	212.1	12	7.84	0.76	3.18	1.00
3-year average	222.1	16	7.23	1.28	2.98	1.12
2011 FBI Forecast	224	17	7.20	1.30	3.20	1.12

 

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: What the Team Can Expect Out of Big Joe Blanton

For a while during the off-season, it seemed like Joe Blanton was the odd man out.

After the Philadelphia Phillies made the biggest surprise move of the season, signing top free agent left handed starter, Cliff Lee, to a multi-year contract, it looked as though Blanton was on the outside looking in.

Blanton was set to become the highest-paid No. 5 starter in all of baseball, so speculating a trade was a simple task.

Moments after the Lee signing became official, rumors began to sprout up surrounding Blanton. The first rumored suitor was a questionable one—the Boston Red Sox. With a full house of their own, the rumor was speculation of the highest quality.

Some reporters believed that the Red Sox and Phillies had somewhat of a “gentleman’s agreement” in place—the Red Sox would take on Blanton’s salary if the Phillies lured Lee away from the Red Sox’s AL East rival, the New York Yankees. However, those rumors quickly faded into oblivion.

Although at various points in the off-season, teams like the Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics were speculated as landing spots for the big right-hander, with just days until the official opening of Spring Training remaining, he is still a member of the Phillies’ rotation.

With that in mind, what can we expect out of the Phillies’ fifth starter this coming season? For that, we take a look into Blanton’s past, his future, a number of projections and stats of all variety.

Over the course of his career, at the very least, Blanton has been a serviceable “innings eater” (No pun intended).

From his first full season with the Athletics in 2005 to his injury shortened 2010 season with the Phillies, Blanton has tossed right around 200 innings in each of his six, full big league seasons.

To date, he is the owner of a 72-60 career record, with an ERA of 4.30. If nothing more, the man has been consistent.

In 2010, Blanton, 30, had an interesting season. After experiencing some discomfort while throwing, the Phillies held Blanton out of the final weeks of Spring Training, and when he told the club that he wasn’t ready to go, the Phillies placed him on the 15-day Disabled List to open the season.

Many people within the organization credit Blanton’s slow start to this injury.

He missed the entire month of April with an oblique injury that sidelined him completely—no running, no throwing and no work at all until that was cleared up.

When he was finally ready to come off the Disabled List, it was clear that the time he missed in Spring Training was proving to  be crucial. He made his first start of the season against the St. Louis Cardinals—allowing four earned runs in a loss.

In fact, Blanton would not receive his first win of the season until May 15, in a game that he allowed five earned runs against the Brewers. Luckily, the Phillies’ offense was there to support him.

Before the All-Star break, the season was looking grim for “Big Joe.” He headed into the break with a record of 3-5 and an abysmal ERA of 6.41. The following months would be much better for Blanton, however.

After the All-Star break, the right-hander returned to his old self, throwing 95.2 quality innings. In the second half of the season, he posted a record of 6-1, with an ERA of 3.48.

He finished the season with a complete record of 9-6, with an ERA of 4.82. In other words, Blanton had another “Blanton-like” season. However, some of his advanced statistics were a little more telling than those that just scratch the surface.

The most notable of which was an extremely high Batting Average on Balls In Play. BABIP is an advanced stat that measures the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit.

Therefore, a high BABIP suggests that a pitcher was unlucky and a low BABIP suggests that a pitcher had good luck. The inverse applies to a hitter.

With that in mind, Blanton’s 2010 BABIP of .321 suggests that he was unlucky in 2010, and his ERA could be much better in 2010.

As with any pitcher, though, Blanton’s overall success will be determined by how well he is throwing his pitches.

Using some expert projections and determining the strength of his repertoire, we should be able to get a good idea of what to expect out of the big right-hander.

Over the last three seasons, Blanton has shown no decrease in velocity across the board—an excellent barometer of what he’ll bring to the table heading into 2011.

He has a standard repertoire of pitches. In other words, he’ll feature a straight four-seam fastball, a curveball, a change-up, a slider and various forms of a moving fastball.

In 2010, he continued a similar rate of velocity. Whatever the movement was, his fastball remained right around 89 mph. His best secondary pitch was his curveball, which is said to be in the mold of former Athletics’ teammate, Barry Zito.

It maintained consistent break and crossed the plate around 77 mph—up from 2009. The rest of his arsenal shakes out quite normally—an 82 mph change-up and an 83 mph slider.

Despite his consistency, all of those velocity readings are below major league average. That means one thing—Blanton will have to show good control in 2011. That shouldn’t be a problem.

Since joining the Phillies in 2008, Blanton has honed his control. He posted BB/9 rates of 3.01, 2.72 and 2.20 respectively. 

In 2011, two well respected stat-projection systems—Bill James and Marcel—expect Blanton to follow a similar path, and post a walk rate in that roundabout area.

James projects a 2.48 BB/9 while Marcel projects a 2.64 BB/9. Either of those numbers would be perfectly acceptable, as they are right around league average.

Blanton’s overall success, however, could come down to his ability to strike opposing hitters out.

Over the course of his career, he has never been known for overpowering “stuff.” He relies on hitters making contact and hitting the ball on the ground.

Since he has a ground-ball rate over 40 percent over the last three seasons, he’s been relatively successful.

Coupling that with a strong out-pitch would make him leaps and bounds better than he was in 2010.

Over the last three seasons, Blanton has posted average strikeout rates. Since joining the Phillies, he’s finished with K/9’s of 5.01, 7.51 and 6.87 respectively. For a fifth starter, those are certainly acceptable averages.

Moving into 2011, James projects that Blanton will punch out 5.95 K/9, but Marcel disagrees, projecting 7.01 K/9. If we can agree to settle somewhere in the middle, we can expect strikeout rates close to what Blanton posted in 2010.

In the long run, however, all of that could be meaningless if  the Phillies’ offense does not continue to support Blanton the way they have in the past. In 2010, the right-hander received top-notch run support.

In fact, only Yankees’ starter Phil Hughes and Blanton’s teammate, Kyle Kendrick, received more run support. The Phillies’ offense averaged an incredible 8.45 runs per starts made by Blanton.

In his only other full season with the Phillies, the offense averaged 7.37 runs per start. While there’s no evidence to suggest that the offense won’t support him equally as well, it’s a concerning factor.

Blanton, who surrendered close to five runs per nine innings in 2010, would need at least six to be considered the winner.

So, all in all, what does this tell us about Blanton? Basically, the Phillies should be in for much of the same, albeit a slight improvement.

Entering Spring Training, Blanton is healthy. One of the biggest flaws of his 2010 season was that he did not have adequate time to prepare before the season.

This year, that should be different. Outside of that, Blanton could be a key cog in the Phillies’ rotation.

What do I think Blanton’s projected line will look like?

GS: 30; W/L: 13-8; ERA: 3.99; K/9: 6.45; BB/9: 2.35; IP: 198.1; WAR: 2.7

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: If They Only Keep One, Roy Oswalt or Jimmy Rollins?

For the 2012 season, it should be a reasonable assumption that the Philadelphia Phillies will contain both Jimmy Rollins and Roy Oswalt.  In 2010, Rollins had a down year due to the fact that he spent nearly half of the season on the disabled list.  However, it is safe to assume that he will return to form in 2010.

Rollins is a veteran and a star, and he knows what is at stake this year.  This could be the only opportunity that he will have to play with a rotation of this caliber, and, beyond the chances of a repeat of a World Series championship, his career is also at stake, as this is the last year of his contract.

Oswalt is a proven ace, who still has yet to lose a game in Citizens Bank Park as a Phillie.  He still ranks as one of the top pitchers currently in baseball and finds himself among the best rotation that exists in baseball today.  At the end of the 2011 season, there is a mutual $16 million option to stay with the Phillies for the 2012 season.  If that option is not taken by either party, we will likely see Oswalt retire, although I think that he would take a serious pay cut to stay with the Phillies before he actually retired.

Rollins will produce a season much more like his 2008 and 2009 seasons to ensure his longevity with the Phillies organization, and Oswalt will continue to hand his command on the mound for this coming season.  Expect both of these players to have great 2011 seasons and be on the Phillies roster for 2012.

However, for the sake of argument, let us assume that the Phillies can only or will only spend the amount of money to keep both of these players.  Which of these players has more to offer to the organization and would be more worth paying to keep as a Phillie?  I think that if we examine the 2010 season, we can assume that Oswalt brings a talent to the organization that would be harder to replace than it would be to replace the talent that Rollins brings.

We saw a 2010 season where Rollins was missing from nearly half of it.  Of 162 regular season games, Rollins played in 88 of those games.  Even with Rollins missing half of the season, the Phillies had the best regular season record in all of baseball.  It would be much more difficult and expensive to find a replacement for Oswalt than it would be for Rollins, especially since the Phillies could look within their own organization to find some to replace Rollins who could produce very comparable numbers.

I am, of course, speaking of Wilson Valdez.  Valdez sometimes gets criticized for not producing offensively, but this is not quite fair.  Valdez may have less ability to hit home runs or steal bases than Rollins, but he still is quite able to do so.  Valdez filled in for Rollins a lot this season, having played in 111 games, still not quite the numbers for a full season, so his numbers would be north of where they were had he been an everyday starter.

That being said, Valdez had seven stolen bases and was never caught in 2010.  He also hit four homeruns.  With stolen bases, Rollins had 17 and was caught once, so Valdez is not quite to Rollin’s ability, but they compare more closely when it comes to other aspects of batting.

Rollins batted for an average of .243 with 41 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .320 and a slugging percentage of .374.  Valdez, on the other hand, batted for an average of .258 with 35 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .306 and a slugging percentage of .360.  I should also mention that Rollins made $8.5 million in 2010, whereas Valdez only made $400,000.  Valdez is only entering his sixth year as a professional player—although he is technically six months older than Rollins—and will not be eligible for free agency until after this season.

When comparing Oswalt to the rest of the pitching in the majors, he was eighth with ERA, second with WHIP, 18th with strikeouts and 33rd with wins; however, that last stat would likely have been higher if he had not played the first half of the season in Houston.  Oswalt’s 2010 stats were a 2.76 ERA, 13-13 Record, 193 strikeouts, 55 walks, and a 1.03 WHIP.  With the starting pitcher free agents who are due to hit the market after the 2011 season, only two pitchers can really compare to Oswalt, Chris Carpenter and Cole Hamels.

Even if the Phillies went the route of trying to sign a free agent to replace Oswalt, they would be paying top dollar to replace him or, more likely, sign someone who does not really hold a candle light to what they could get out of Oswalt.  If the Phillies tried to trade for someone to replace Oswalt, the cost would likely be too great to either the everyday starters or the farm system.  Rollins could be replaced from within at a fraction of the cost and see similar results.

Oswalt would not be nearly as easy to replace, not that replacing Rollins is easy, and finding one from within may be difficult.  Vance Worley has potential, but I will not claim that he is Oswalt’s caliber until he proves it, nor would I bet on it.  Oswalt is a quality pitcher that is rarely found in baseball, especially at his consistency.

Overall, the Phillies would be better off with keeping Oswalt and letting Rollins go than they would be if they kept Rollins and let Oswalt go.  I would expect both players to remain a Phillie, but if we could only pick one, Oswalt is the better option for the team to keep.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 MLB Offseason: Revisting the Big Free Agent Moves

Like most people, as soon as the season ended, I made my free agent predictions for the top free agents from Cliff Lee, to Aubrey Huff.

My predictions are not wild, or bold, but were based on which teams needed key players, and which teams would retain some of these players.

Throughout the 2011 Off Season, we’ve seen big free agent acquisitions from teams we would never guess would be in the running, and some teams who seemed to have been hibernating through the Winter Meetings, and beyond that.

The season hasn’t started, but the main part of free agency is pretty much over, so I decided I’d look back at my Free Agent Predictions, my justifications, and what actually happened.

Also, as a bonus, I’ll give my projection for that player, along with a grade for the acquisition.

Some top free agents are not on this list, as I couldn’t make predictions for everyone at the time.

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Philadelphia Phillies Preview: Shining a Spotlight on Carlos Ruiz

MLB Countdown Till Pitchers and Catchers Report: Five days.

The man that Philadelphia Phillies fans love to call “Chooch” has just turned 32, and has never been voted onto an all-star team or honored with a Gold Glove award.

But take a look around the league, and around all of Major League baseball. Are there as many as five other catchers who you would rather have behind the plate, and hitting out of the No. 8 hole for this team—a team whose expectations are so impossibly high?

The answer to that is debatable, but clearly, the diminutive Panamian backstop has become one of the most highly respected players on the team. So, would you entrust the fortunes of our once-in-a-generation starting pitching rotation to anyone else?

Despite his lack of Gold Gloves (Ruiz has been the Phils’ everyday catcher the last four years, and the Cardinals’ superb Yadier Molina has won the last three), by any measure Chooch does an exceptional job behind the dish.

Ruiz commits very few errors, does a great job blocking balls in the dirt, sacrifices his body to block the plate and when given a reasonable chance to throw out runners, he cuts them down with his precise laser arm. The pitching staff raves about how he calls a game, and Chooch has become more confident and assertive with them each year.

One other thing: The next time he either complains or toots his own horn publicly, will be the very first.

All of these qualities have made Carlos Ruiz a greatly valued player—in the clubhouse and in the stands of Citizens Bank Park—even if national recognition has been slow in coming.

Known more for his stellar defense, Ruiz compiled (by far) his best offensive season in 2010. One can easily make a case that he was the most consistent hitter on the team last year.

Chooch put together a wonderful slash line of .302/.400/.447, with a terrific OPS of .847. Still not impressed? Ruiz was the only Phils regular with a batting average over .300 or an OBP over .400 (he did both). It is tempting to say that he should be the Phillies’ leadoff hitter, but that would be just a tad unconventional. He has decent speed for a catcher, but…

Why would you even want to displace him from the No. 8 hole when he walked 55 times against only 54 strikeouts, and also found a way to knock in 53 runs? There simply aren’t that many batters—at any position—who rack up more BBs than Ks, and Ruiz does a superb job of turning the lineup over.

Are you ready for another interesting Chooch-related factoid?

If you look at last year’s starting lineup, Ruiz was the only position player to never make an all-star team. Going around the diamond, Ryan Howard (three times), Chase Utley (five), Jimmy Rollins (three) and Placido Polanco (one) made for a highly decorated infield.

All three starting outfielders—Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth—suited up in the 2009 All-Star Game.

If the lack of personal honors has ever bothered Ruiz, you would never know if from the way he goes about this business. In fact, he is all business, with a knack for making the great defensive play or getting the key hit at the right time.

It would be an exaggeration to note that the Phillies ended their dubious 13-year run of not qualifying for the playoffs in 2007, when Ruiz started wearing the tools of ignorance every day. As you well know, the Fightins have won the NL East the last four years, and Ruiz has been just one reason why. At the same time, the impact of having such a reliable catcher should not be ignored.

Once in the postseason, Ruiz gets the job done behind the plate and offensively—with a career postseason line of .280/.412/.456.

It remains to be seen whether Ruiz can match last year’s offensive numbers, and if so, whether he will be rewarded with an All-Star appearance when the competition includes guys like Molina, the Braves’ perennial honoree Brian McCann and reigning Rookie of the Year Buster Posey of the Giants.

Phillies fans would love to have the opportunity to scream “Chooooooooooch” during the midsummer classic, but perhaps it’s Ruiz’s fate to be one of those terrific players who never gets to taste that kind of personal glory.

As long as Chooch gets to kneel down for about 120 grueling regular season games and 12 postseason victories, all of Phillies Nation will be delighted.

One gets the impression that the popular, ultra-reliable and unselfish catcher will be even more delighted to do his part to bring home another championship.

Gold Notes

It is interesting to speculate as to where Carlos Ruiz would rank among Phillies catchers of the last 50 years. In any debate of this ilk, there is no single stat that crunches all of the numbers and all of the intangibles, but for now he would probably rank fourth behind:

Bob Boone (who caught over 100 games seven times as a Phillie, made three All-Star games and won two Gold Gloves).

Darren Daulton (four seasons over 100 games, three All-Star games, a Silver Slugger and an RBI crown).

Mike Lieberthal (seven seasons over 100 games, two All-Star games, a Gold Glove and two seasons over .300).

Chooch has caught over 100 games the last four seasons and is the only player of the four to ever have an OBP of .400.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com

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Charlie Manuel and the 20 Greatest Coaches in Philadelphia Sports History

Philadelphia is one of the greatest sports cities in the United States. Each team that plays between Broad and Pattison has a rich history of its own.

Each franchise has had its share of successes and failures. The Phillies and 76ers are notoriously known for having one of the worst seasons in league history. The Eagles and Flyers are better known for their annual run to either the Super Bowl or the Stanley Cup.

Philadelphia is also home to the Big 5, the city’s historic college basketball schools.

Philly has been home to some historic teams. We may be in the midst of one right now (2011 Phillies).

Behind every great team is a great leader, a great coach who knows how to get the most out of his players.

Here is a list of 20 of the top coaches in Philadelphia sports history.

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