Philadelphia Phillies: Just How Much Will a Cole Hamels Extension Cost?

When Opening Day rolls around for the Philadelphia Phillies on April 1, one of the most anticipated teams in the lengthy history of Philadelphia sports will begin its 162-game crusade for postseason greatness, anchored by a starting rotation for the history books, including left-handed starter Cole Hamels.

However, when the regular season has ended and whatever it is that October has to offer baseball has faded, the Phillies and their fans will have to face the music. With a payroll already north of $160 million, the front office may have to make some roster decisions not favored by all. Two players likely to get the ax are Raul Ibanez, whose contract is expiring, and Brad Lidge, who has a hefty option for the 2012 season.

On the other hand, with the way that pitching has equated to titles the last few seasons, the Phillies would likely make decisions to retain players like Roy Oswalt and Ryan Madson, who have a club option and expiring contract, respectively. All of those decisions will likely hinge on what the Phillies do with their youngest ace, Hamels.

After agreeing to a three year, $20.5 million deal after a monster 2008 season, both the Phillies and Hamels knew that this day was coming. The deal bought out a couple of arbitration years, but not all of them. Hyped as one of the Phillies’ “four aces,” Hamels could make a pretty penny in his final year of arbitration, which may be the simple route for the Phillies.

The Phillies will have a pretty good idea of what Hamels can earn in arbitration, depending on the results of his 2011 season. If they feel as though they can offer him arbitration for the final time and build other parts of the roster, this is the route they’ll go, but it isn’t likely. Already earning $9.5 million in 2011, Hamels will surely eclipse an eight-digit salary for the 2012 season.

So with that in mind, avoiding that final year of arbitration with Hamels seems like a good idea. In order to do that, however, the sides would need to agree to an extension. Where do they even begin? Looking around baseball, there are not many pitchers in situations that compare to Hamels. I took the liberty of gathering a few samples, but as I’ll explain below, there may not be a single one that is a good structure for a Cole Hamels extension with the Phillies.

NAME	AGE	WON	LOST	ERA	FIP	SO	BB	AAV	YEARS
Cole Hamels	27	60	45	3.53	3.77	897	248	TBD	TBD
Jon Lester	27	61	25	3.55	3.60	712	287	$6MM	5
Justin Verlander	28	83	52	3.81	3.61	965	353	$16MM	5
Josh Johnson	27	45	22	3.10	3.20	611	223	$9.75MM	4
Wandy Rodriguez	31	62	64	4.18	4.05	838	353	$11.3MM	3

As you can see in the table above, I listed a few pitchers with comparable numbers to Hamels who have signed extensions over the course of the last few seasons. As I stated above, however, some of those extensions do little in the way of structuring a blueprint for an extension between Hamels and the Phillies.

Though they have similar career numbers, Hamels and the Boston Red Sox’s Jon Lester are hardly comparable. Despite having similar win totals and ERAs, Hamels has nearly 200 more innings pitched than Lester. That’s roughly a full season of results that Hamels has to his advantage (or disadvantage, depending on which stance you’re taking). Aside from that, the five-year, $30 million deal Lester signed with the Red Sox is widely regarded as one of the most team-friendly in baseball.

Josh Johnson, who shares a division with Hamels, has been on the fast track to super-stardom. He and Hamels also share a wide gap in innings pitched and some people argue that Johnson is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and is on the cusp of being a truly “elite” pitcher. I, of course, am within those ranks. The Phillies would be doing themselves justice by modeling a deal after the one Johnson signed with Florida, which bought out several arbitration seasons.

The Houston Astros signed one of their more successful starters, Wandy Rodriguez, to a contract extension this offseason. The deal, which buys out his final arbitration years, will pay him a cap of $13 million in what would have been a free-agent season. In terms of innings pitched, Rodriguez (985 IP) is Hamels’ closest comparison (945.1 IP). The only problem is that the rest of Hamels’ statistics pretty much blow Rodriguez out of the water. With that in mind, Hamels’ camp will look to surpass the $13 million a year that Rodriguez is making, and should do so with ease.

Perhaps the best comparison to Cole Hamels is Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers. In fact, the two are similar in many ways, including their pitch repertoire. They have a similar amount of innings pitched but Verlander has a better career record, which could hurt Hamels’ chances of earning an equal amount as him. That said, as they’ve shown with Ryan Howard’s contract extension, the Phillies aren’t too worried about overpaying for their homegrown talent.

Looking around baseball, Verlander’s deal, which also bought out his final arbitration seasons, makes probably the best comparison for both the Phillies and Hamels. The deal, which eventually pays Verlander $20 million per season, should be a good frame for what the Phillies are able to do with Hamels.

The first thing that we’ll break down is the length of a possible extension. In the past, the Phillies have shown that they’re unwilling to give pitchers lengthy deals. They only offered Roy Halladay three guaranteed years, and if they didn’t have such fierce competition for Cliff Lee, they surely wouldn’t have gone five years with his deal either.

Hamels, on the other hand, is an interesting case. He’ll be just 28 next season as the team begins discussing an extension, and over the last few seasons we’ve heard nothing but positive feedback on Hamels’ health and conditioning. In a nutshell, if the Phillies’ were okay with offering Howard a five-year deal, you can imagine they’ll do the same for Hamels—the youngest of the “four aces.”

When you begin discussing dollar amounts, you enter a bit of a grey area. Using the above contracts as a comparison, we know that Hamels will look to at least surpass Rodriguez’s $13 million annual salary, but probably won’t eclipse the $20 million that Verlander is set to make at the peak of his contract. If we split the difference, it seems more than likely that Hamels will earn somewhere in the $16-18 million range per season. This season could make all the difference.

With those two elements agreed upon, the Phillies will structure a contract. First, they’d have to agree to a 2012 salary, which would have been Hamels’ final arbitration season. For argument’s sake, we’ll say that $12.5 million is fair for Hamels’ final arbitration season. Over the course of the final four seasons, the Phillies will have to pay Hamels accordingly. In my personal opinion, I believe they’ll go with an escalating salary. For example, they could agree to a contract that pays Hamels $16 million in 2013, $17 million in 2014 and $18 million in each of 2015-16.

For those of you keeping count, that would see the Phillies and Hamels agreeing to a five year, $81.5 million deal, which at first seems a bit excessive. While Hamels’ camp will argue that he deserves to be paid the $20 million per season that Verlander is making, the Phillies’ camp will bid hard to lower that number by adding years. If he shows that he can be an elite starter this season, the Phillies will happily sign that contract.

So, what do you think? Let’s see some contract predictions for Cole Hamels in the comments section!

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