Philadelphia Phillies 2011: Who Is Their Team MVP?

So, who would you say is the Philadelphia Phillies team MVP?

By this, I am not asking, Who is their best player? Rather, who can they least afford to lose for long stretches, if not the entire season?

Truth be told, I would rather be asking, “Will the Phillies win 100 or 105 games this year?” Or, “When they win their 11 postseason games, will they lose five games or fewer?”

These questions may, hopefully, still be asked down the road, but admittedly all the talk about second baseman Chase Utley’s patellar tendinitis and rookie rightfielder Domonic Brown’s hook of hamate injury has me wondering whose loss would impact the team most negatively.

While we’re on the subject, I liked H20 much better when it did not mean Hook of Hamate, and yes, I’d much rather talk about Hamels’ hook (and how frequently he throws it) than this new-hook that I would prefer not to know anything about.

But let’s not get hooked on semantics here.

Which player could the Phils least afford to lose for an extended period of time?

I was going to do this in a slideshow format, but I’ve been fighting carpal tunnel syndrome from all the grueling typing I’ve done on my last few shows, so here is my list in a standard article format.

As one of the five most valuable members of my household, I can’t afford to be disabled.

Before reading my list, please note that I gave some consideration to who each player’s backup is.

So, without any more hemming and hawing, here is how I would rank the 10 Most Valuable Phillies in descending order (of value) from 10 to one.

 

10) Roy Oswalt

Oswalt is considered a No. 3 or a No. 4 on this staff, but only on this incredible rotation.

He was absolutely brilliant with the Phils last season (7-1, 1.74 in 12 starts) and figures to have another strong season as a co-ace.

Then again, the squad has three other stud starters and a pretty good No. 5 as well.

 

9) Cole Hamels

Hamels rebounded in a big way last year, even if his won-loss record (12-11) did not do justice to how well he pitched.

Just like Oswalt, if it weren’t for the other three members of R2C2, his placement would be higher.

 

8) Shane Victorino

Shane is becoming a veteran, emotional leader for this team who contributes much-needed speed and terrific Gold Glove play in center field.

If he thought more like a speed demon than a power hitter at the plate, he would be even more valuable.

 

7) Brad Lidge

We’ll never see him approach his amazing 2008 campaign, where everything worked out perfectly, but Lidge pitched quite well the last couple months of 2010.

And as well as Ryan Madson (just missed my list) has pitched as a setup man, Lidge is still the man for the ninth.

 

6) Jimmy Rollins

A few years ago, it would have been silly to have rated J-Roll this far down the list. After all, he won the National league MVP in 2007.

But Rollins, whether due to age, injuries or a combination of both factors, has not been that same compelling offensive player since. Still, his glove and his effervescent leadership are huge for this team, and when he does hit, the team wins a great majority of the time.

 

5) Cliff Lee

Lee, despite missing some turns with injuries, was second in all of baseball (to new teammate Roy Halladay) in complete games last year.

Given his postseason success, he merits a higher place on this list than either Oswalt or Hamels. Given the presence of the other three aces, it’s hard to rank him any higher.

 

4) Roy Halladay

If Halladay entered 2010 as the unofficial “best pitcher in baseball,” then last season only cemented this status in most pundits’ eyes.

Perhaps winning the Cy Young unanimously in your first year in a new league and throwing a no-no in your postseason debut will do that.

Funny how that works.

 

3) Carlos Ruiz

I actually thought of placing “Chooch” at No. 1.

My reasoning? I’m aware that he still has not won a Gold Glove or been voted onto the All-Star team, but the man plays the most important defensive position of the starting eight and does so brilliantly.

He calls a great game, throws runners out when given the opportunity, and he has developed into arguably the best No. 8 hitter in the league.

What other No. 8 hitter batted .302 with an OBP of .400 and a .293 batting average with runners in scoring position?

 

2) Ryan Howard

Yes, he still has a hole or two in his swing, and he still makes Phils fans nervous whenever he has to throw the ball to second base. I also realize that he had a down year—by his very high standards—in 2010.

But what other Phillie can give you his consistent production and inspire as much fear in opposing managers and pitchers?

That was a rhetorical question.

 

1) Chase Utley

The Phillies weathered the regular season storm pretty well last year when both Rollins and Utley lost significant amounts of games due to injuries.

Phillies Nation, obviously, hopes that the team—to say nothing of most pleasant surprise Wilson Valdez—is not put to such a test in 2011.

 

If you’re reading this column, I don’t have to sell you on Utley’s worth. The perennial All-Star is their only logical candidate for the vital No. 3 spot in the lineup, plays terrific (if slightly underrated) defense and spurs his team with his all-out, hard-nosed play.

While the Phillies would not relish any of these 10 players (and others, including Ryan Madson, Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco) missing significant playing time, the thought of losing Utley creates the most apprehension.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and public appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Spring Training 2011: 10 Camp Goals for Philadelphia Phillies to Achieve

We’re well into spring training, and some storylines with the Philadelphia Phillies have emerged. 

Ben Francisco has been stellar and is ready to replace Jayson Werth in right.  We may even see Francisco in Werth’s 5-hole slot by season’s end.

Domonic Brown broke his hand at the wrong time.  He’s been in free-fall in camp, and he needed as much spring training as possible.  He needs to regain his confidence.

Chase Utley’s knee has raised some concerns.

Other than that, everything’s just dandy.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: Injury Concerns Shine Light on Biggest Weakness

For the Philadelphia Phillies, the biggest worry coming into spring training was probably centered around which nickname was best for their amazing rotation. The Fantastic Four, Four Aces, Four Horseman, R2C2, Mound Rushmore (nice), or Phour Loco.

My personal favorite, being a rap fan, is Fat Joe and the Terror Squad. It gets bonus points for incorporating the entire rotation into the nickname, since the starters have been making it a point to always include Joe Blanton.

But the talk in recent days has turned to injuries—with the broken hand suffered by Dominic Brown and the cortisone shot to Chase Utley‘s right knee.

While the rotation gives people in Philadelphia a reason to be excited, the lineup and the recent injury issues also give them a reason to be concerned.

With that in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the bench and some of the Phils’ backups who may see more playing time than originally expected, as well as the impact that these changes would have on the batting lineup.

We’ll start off with the outfield, which now seems locked in with Ben Francisco in right, Shane Victorino in center and Raul Ibanez in left. Dominic Brown’s fractured hand and recovery time make it likely that he’ll start off the season on the DL and possibly in Triple-A. That leaves us with a backup group consisting mainly of John Mayberry Jr. and Ross Gload, with Delwyn Young also a possibility.

Ruben Amaro Jr. has been quoted saying he won’t bring in an outside player to add depth—but, then again, he’s been known to pull off a surprise deal from time to time as well.

That being said, it will be tough to pull off this time, with all of their recent dealings having left them with little in terms of tradable assets.

Some of the names that are rumored to be available include former player Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, currently of the Boston Red Sox.

When it comes to the infield, the go-to bench player is Wilson Valdez. Whether it’s second base, shortstop or third base, he’s the first-choice backup. This is where the lack of depth on the team could really rear its ugly head.

I mentioned Delwyn Young as a possible outfield replacement earlier and he’s also an option at second base, where he’s started 57 games in the majors.

Either way, while the defense would remain solid, the offense may find itself in a real struggle if Utley misses serious time. Some names that would be considered if Utley is seriously injured include Kelly Johnson, Aaron Hill and Mike Aviles.

Going into the season, there were already questions about who would takeover for Jayson Werth as the fifth hitter in the lineup—if Utley is to miss significant time, it’s going to shake up the order even more. However, if his injury is not such a big deal and he can play through the pain, the lineup is likely to be Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Francisco, Ibanez, Victorino, Ruiz and the pitcher.

But if Valdez has to fill in for Utley then it’s really anyone’s guess as to what Charlie Manuel’s batting order will be. He used Ibanez in the three hole a number of times last year and has, on occasion, used Rollins in the three spot with Victorino leading off.

This team is only three years removed from giving Philadelphia a sports championship and mostly eliminating that mindset of eventual doom that Philly fans had for their sports teams. Combine that with the offseason addition of Cliff Lee and it has put the fans in the awkward position of believing that success was a certainty.

Now that the initial hoopla surrounding the starting rotation has settled and Utley’s knee problems have persisted, I think a little bit of the doom-and-gloom mindset might be creeping back into the fans’ minds.

Being a former doom-and-gloomer myself, I’m proud to say that I’m refraining from pushing the panic button—but I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that my finger paused for a second when it passed over it.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Cy Young Award in the Sabermetrics Era: A Study of Who Will Win in 2011 Part 1

This is a 2 part series in which I will analyze a current Cy Young Predictor formula, offer a replacement formula to account for the change in philosophy for the Cy Young voters with the growing influence of new-age statistics (sabermetrics), and use this new formula to project the Cy Young race in 2011 and beyond.

Part 1 will look into a widely accepted Cy Young Predictor formula and explain the flaws in it. As voters are considering sabermetric statistics more and more, the Cy Young formula also needs to adapt to the new ways of thinking and voting. Part 1 will examine and breakdown a new formula and check it with past data for accuracy.

Part 2 will look to the 2011 Cy Young race in the National League. First an analysis will be done to determine how the top pitchers will fare in the 2011 season. Next, a projection will be done to determine how these pitchers will end up placing on the Cy Young ballot. A similar analysis will be done for the American League at a later date.

PART 1: A TILT TOWARDS ADVANCED STATISTICS AND WHAT IT MEANS TO THE CY YOUNG AWARD

INTRODUCTION

Baseball fans are getting smarter.

There’s been a change in the way we watch, discuss and analyze baseball in the past few years. A lot of that is due to fantasy geeks around the world and their constant strive to find an edge in the game. We have Daniel Okrent and the guys from the original Rotisserie League to thank for that. They brought the game into our lives, and now millions play it day in and day out.

Fantasy baseball is really a derivative of what Bill James was trying to do with sabermetrics. James began his work in the 70’s to try and find a better way of assigning value to players on the field and at the plate.  His work won the approval of many, including Okrent. Without James developing the theory and Okrent bringing a “silly little game” to our lives, in all likelihood, baseball wouldn’t be nearly as popular as it is today, and it certainly wouldn’t be dissected as much.

James knew back in the 70’s that many highly regarded baseball statistics weren’t telling the whole story. One of them was the win/loss category. Pitchers can only do so much to win games, so if they don’t have a decent offense behind them their wins will be lower and their losses will be higher than a pitcher with the same arm on a team with a great offense. That seemed obvious to him, yet the mainstream media and baseball gurus around the league had been using certain barometers for good pitchers and bad pitchers for years, so while James had done some incredible work it took years for it to be truly recognized.

The tide has shifted lately though, and many are finally coming around the advanced metrics James and other had been writing about for years. This is especially evident in the 2010 Cy Young voting. Felix Hernandez won the award with a startling 21 of 28 first place votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America even though he only won 13 games. If this happened in the 70’s he wouldn’t have even made the ballot.

THE EXISTING CY YOUNG PREDICTOR

James wrote a formula with Rob Neyer of ESPN to calculate a projected Cy Young winner prior to this shift in voting. His formula is as follows:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (K’s/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

(where VB is a Victory Bonus of 12 points awarded for leading your team to the division championship.)

Why he even bothered to write the formula is questionable it itself as the Cy Young almost always went to the pitcher with the most wins prior to 2009. Period. But that’s beside the point. James’ formula worked great up until the past few years. But then a noticeable shift in voting occurred.

In 2008, James’ formula correctly selects Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum.

In 2009, however, James’ formula selects Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright.  Zach Greinke won in the A.L and was ranked 2^nd on James’ formula. Tim Lincecum won in the N.L and was only ranked 4^th in James’ formula.

In 2010, again we see the shift in voting. James’ formula selects Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia, but Felix The Kid ended up taking home the A.L. award. Felix was ranked 6^th in James’ formula! Above him were CC, Price, Lester, Soriano, and Buchholz.

If the trend in voting continues down this path, it’s clear that James’ original formula needs to be modified to fit this new-age thinking. In the following study I’ll explain the flaws in the old formula and provide a new formula to account for the shift in Cy Young voting.

THE ADJUSTED CY YOUNG PREDICTOR

If we take apart James’ formula and break it into variables and constants we have this:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((A*IP/9)-ER) + (K’s/B) + (SV*C) + (Shutouts*D) + ((W*E)-(L*F)) + (VB*G)

(where the constants are A through G, and the variables are each pitcher’s individual stats)

As Cy Young voters are becoming more and more accepting of sabermetrics statistics, this formula seems to be leaving out some key data that voters look at. While I could make the case that voters should look at advanced statistics such as WAR, CERA, or DIPS, that isn’t yet a reality. Maybe in the coming years these advanced statistics will be looked at, but that time is not now. But there is one glaring piece of information left out of James’ formula that voters are clearly looking at now, WHIP (walks+hits/IP).

WHIP. It even sounds cool. It’s simple enough for anyone to understand, yet very telling of a pitcher’s dominance on the mound. With a quick glance at WHIP you can get a snapshot of the pitcher and understand how much luck was involved with his ERA and overall record. With Greinke and Hernandez winning the A.L Cy Young the last few years yet not dominating the Win category, it’s clear the voters are looking into a category that those pitchers did well in. WHIP.

Greinke had a 1.073 WHIP in 2009(good for 2^nd in the A.L) to go with his 2.16 ERA and 242 K’s, and Hernandez had a 1.06 WHIP (2^nd in the A.L) to go along with his 2.27 ERA and 232 K’s. Neither pitcher was in the top 5 in Wins in the A.L, and in fact Hernandez only amassed 13 throughout the entire season.

If we incorporate WHIP into James’ equation and modify the constants we can find an equation much more suitable for the present day. The easiest way to explain how and why I made the changes is to show both the EXISTING equation and ADJUSTED equation, and then provide an explanation and commentary below. The basic equation, including WHIP, is:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((A*IP/9)-ER) + (K’s/B) + (SV*C) + (Shutouts*D) + ((W*E)-(L*F)) + (VB*G) + ((H*IP)-(IP*WHIP/J))

And the constants used in both James’ (EXIST) and my (ADJUSTED) study are as follows:

	EXIST	ADJUSTED
A	5	5
B	12	5
C	2.5	1.5
D	1	2
E	6	3
F	2	2
G	12	5
H	0	0.5
J	0	3

COMMENTARY

I came to these adjusted constants by analyzing the relative strength each individual constant would add to the overall total. To do this I analyzed the 2009 N.L Cy Young race. Using James’ existing equation, the top 10 finishers should have been the following pitchers in the order shown below in Table 1a (with stats included). The The CYP(exist) is the value calculated with the EXISTING equation and the CYP(adjusted) is the value shown with the ADJUSTED equation.

TABLE 1a 

2009 N.L.
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	G	GS	IP	ER	K	SV	SHO	W	L	ERA	DC	WHIP	CYP(exist)	CYP(adjusted)
1	Adam Wainwright	STL	34	34	233	68	212	0	0	19	8	2.63	1	1.21	189.11	172.37
2	Chris Carpenter	STL	28	28	192.7	48	144	0	1	17	4	2.24	1	1.01	178.06	169.33
3	Jonathan Broxton	LA	73	0	76	22	114	36	0	7	2	2.61	1	0.96	169.72	132.70
4	Tim Lincecum	SF	32	32	225.3	62	261	0	2	15	7	2.48	0	1.05	162.92	184.16
5	Heath Bell	SD	68	0	69.7	21	79	42	0	6	4	2.71	0	1.12	157.31	115.35
6	Ryan Franklin	STL	62	0	61	13	44	38	0	4	3	1.92	1	1.2	149.56	103.79
7	Javier Vazquez	ATL	32	32	219.3	70	238	0	0	15	10	2.87	0	1.03	141.67	158.79
8	Brian Wilson	SF	68	0	72.3	22	83	38	0	5	6	2.74	0	1.2	138.08	102.00
9	Josh Johnson	FLA	33	33	209	75	191	0	0	15	5	3.23	0	1.16	137.03	138.00
10	Jair Jurrjens	ATL	34	34	215	62	152	0	0	14	10	2.6	0	1.21	134.11	130.63

The CYP(adjusted) components were separated into percentages of the sum in order to understand why a certain player received a certain score, i.e. answering the question, “what did they do well in”. Table 1b summarizes those findings.

TABLE 1b 

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	ERA	K	SV	SH	W/L	DC	WHIP
1	Adam Wainwright	STL	35.65%	24.60%	0.00%	0.00%	23.79%	2.90%	13.07%
2	Chris Carpenter	STL	34.88%	17.01%	0.00%	1.18%	25.39%	2.95%	18.59%
3	Jonathan Broxton	LA	15.24%	17.18%	40.69%	0.00%	12.81%	3.77%	10.31%
4	Tim Lincecum	SF	34.30%	28.34%	0.00%	2.17%	16.83%	0.00%	18.35%
5	Heath Bell	SD	15.36%	13.70%	54.62%	0.00%	8.67%	0.00%	7.65%
6	Ryan Franklin	STL	20.13%	8.48%	54.92%	0.00%	5.78%	4.82%	5.88%
7	Javier Vazquez	ATL	32.64%	29.98%	0.00%	0.00%	15.74%	0.00%	21.64%
8	Brian Wilson	SF	17.81%	16.28%	55.88%	0.00%	2.94%	0.00%	7.09%
9	Josh Johnson	FLA	29.79%	27.68%	0.00%	0.00%	25.36%	0.00%	17.16%
10	Jair Jurrjens	ATL	43.98%	23.27%	0.00%	0.00%	16.84%	0.00%	15.91%
	AVERAGES:	SP	35.21%	25.15%	0.00%	0.56%	20.66%	0.98%	17.45%
		RP	17.13%	13.91%	51.53%	0.00%	7.55%	2.15%	7.73%
		SP(exist)	30-40%	9 to 12%	0.00%	0 to 1%	45-55%	2-5%	0.00%
		RP(exist)	10 to 15%	3 to 7%	60-70%	0.00%	13-17%	2 to 5%	0.00%

Look at the averages to make sense of it all.

As you can see by looking at the averages, with the ADJUSTED equation, the overall score depends on roughly 50% ERA + WHIP whereas the EXISTING equation would account for roughly 30-40% ERA + WHIP for Starting Pitchers (SP). Another big change is the dependence on Wins. In the EXISTING equation, wins accounted for roughly 45-55% of the total score, whereas in the ADJUSTED equation, Wins account for much less (an average of 20.66% in 2009). Strikeouts were also valued higher in the ADJUSTED equation, as the voters seem to value that more now too.

To verify that this ADJUSTED equation would work for more than just one circumstance, it was tested on the past 2 years’ Cy Young races in both the N.L. and the A.L. The data is shown below:

 

TABLE 1c
2009 N.L.
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	G	GS	IP	ER	K	SV	SHO	W	L	ERA	DC	WHIP	CYP(exist)	CYP(adjusted)
1	Adam Wainwright	STL	34	34	233	68	212	0	0	19	8	2.63	1	1.21	189.11	172.37
2	Chris Carpenter	STL	28	28	192.7	48	144	0	1	17	4	2.24	1	1.01	178.06	169.33
3	Jonathan Broxton	LA	73	0	76	22	114	36	0	7	2	2.61	1	0.96	169.72	132.70
4	Tim Lincecum	SF	32	32	225.3	62	261	0	2	15	7	2.48	0	1.05	162.92	184.16
5	Heath Bell	SD	68	0	69.7	21	79	42	0	6	4	2.71	0	1.12	157.31	115.35
6	Ryan Franklin	STL	62	0	61	13	44	38	0	4	3	1.92	1	1.2	149.56	103.79
7	Javier Vazquez	ATL	32	32	219.3	70	238	0	0	15	10	2.87	0	1.03	141.67	158.79
8	Brian Wilson	SF	68	0	72.3	22	83	38	0	5	6	2.74	0	1.2	138.08	102.00
9	Josh Johnson	FLA	33	33	209	75	191	0	0	15	5	3.23	0	1.16	137.03	138.00
10	Jair Jurrjens	ATL	34	34	215	62	152	0	0	14	10	2.6	0	1.21	134.11	130.63
TABLE 1d
2009 A.L.
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	G	GS	IP	ER	K	SV	SHO	W	L	ERA	DC	WHIP	CYP(exist)	CYP(adjusted)
1	Felix Hernandez	SEA	34	34	238.7	66	217	0	1	19	5	2.49	0	1.14	189.69	187.66
2	Zack Greinke	KC	33	33	229.3	55	242	0	3	16	8	2.16	0	1.07	175.56	191.66
3	CC Sabathia	NYY	34	34	230	86	197	0	1	19	8	3.37	1	1.15	169.19	156.01
4	Mariano Rivera	NYY	66	0	66.3	13	72	44	0	3	3	1.76	1	0.90	163.83	125.49
5	Roy Halladay	TOR	32	32	239	74	208	0	4	17	10	2.79	0	1.13	162.11	168.85
6	Justin Verlander	DET	35	35	240	92	269	0	1	19	9	3.45	0	1.18	160.75	161.73
7	Joe Nathan	MIN	70	0	68.7	16	89	47	0	2	2	2.1	0	0.93	155.08	125.52
8	Brian Fuentes	LAA	65	0	55	24	46	48	0	2	2	3.93	1	1.40	150.39	96.59
9	Jered Weaver	LAA	33	33	211	88	174	0	2	16	8	3.75	1	1.24	137.72	123.31
10	Josh Beckett	BOS	32	32	212.1	91	199	0	2	17	6	3.86	0	1.19	135.42	131.55
TABLE 1e
2010 A.L.
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	G	GS	IP	ER	K	SV	SHO	W	L	ERA	DC	WHIP	CYP(exist)	CYP(adjusted)
1	CC Sabathia	NYY	34	34	237.7	84	197	0	0	21	7	3.18	0	1.19	176.47	161.02
2	David Price	TB	32	31	208.7	63	188	0	1	19	6	2.72	0	1.19	171.61	159.11
3	Jon Lester	BOS	32	32	208	75	225	0	0	19	9	3.25	0	1.2	155.31	145.36
4	Rafael Soriano	TB	64	0	62.3	12	57	45	0	3	2	1.73	0	0.8	153.86	121.05
5	Clay Buchholz	BOS	28	28	173.7	45	120	0	1	17	7	2.33	0	1.2	150.50	131.87
6	Felix Hernandez	SEA	34	34	249.7	63	232	0	1	13	12	2.27	0	1.06	150.06	175.74
7	Justin Verlander	DET	33	33	224.3	84	219	0	0	18	9	3.37	0	1.16	148.86	145.83
8	Trevor Cahill	OAK	30	30	196.7	65	118	0	1	18	8	2.97	0	1.11	147.11	133.45
9	Neftali Feliz	TEX	70	0	69.3	21	71	40	0	4	3	2.73	0	0.88	141.42	112.02
10	Joakim Soria	KC	66	0	65.7	13	71	43	0	1	2	1.78	0	1.05	138.92	111.06
TABLE 1f
2010 N.L.
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	G	GS	IP	ER	K	SV	SHO	W	L	ERA	DC	WHIP	CYP(exist)	CYP(adjusted)
1	Roy Halladay	PHI	33	33	250.7	68	219	0	4	21	10	2.44	1	1.04	211.53	209.52
2	Adam Wainwright	STL	33	33	230.3	62	213	0	2	20	11	2.42	0	1.05	183.69	185.09
3	Heath Bell	SD	67	0	70	15	86	47	0	6	1	1.93	0	1.2	182.56	134.59
4	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	33	33	221.7	71	214	0	2	19	8	2.88	0	1.15	170.00	165.83
5	Billy Wagner	ATL	71	0	69.3	11	104	37	0	7	2	1.43	0	0.87	166.67	135.35
6	Brian Wilson	SF	70	0	74.7	15	93	48	0	3	3	1.81	0	1.18	166.25	128.07
7	Tim Hudson	ATL	34	34	228.7	72	139	0	0	17	9	2.83	0	1.15	150.64	142.54
8	Francisco Cordero	CIN	75	0	72.7	31	59	40	0	6	5	3.84	0	1.43	140.31	90.89
9	Chris Carpenter	STL	35	35	235	84	179	0	0	16	9	3.22	0	1.18	139.47	137.42
10	Carlos Marmol	CHC	77	0	77.7	22	138	38	0	2	3	2.55	0	1.18	133.67	114.05

 

CONCLUSION:

Using the adjusted constants, we have a new Cy Young Predictor formula as shown below:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (K’s/5) + (SV*1.5) + (Shutouts*2) + ((W*3)-(L*2)) + (VB*5) + ((0.5*IP)-(IP*WHIP/3))

By looking at the results from Tables 1c-1f, it’s clear that this formula will result in more accurate results in the sabermetrics age.

The Red lines in each chart indicate the Cy Young winner from that year. As you can see, the ADJUSTED equation correctly chooses the Cy Young winner from that year and league. Unfortunately, we still have a relatively small sample size with this new trend of voting, so the ADJUSTED equation doesn’t overemphasize the importance of WHIP or completely disregard the value in Wins.

As years pass, even this equation will most likely need to be updated to account for the new trends in Cy Young voting. There may be an even greater importance placed on sabermatrics in the future. Only time will tell. For now, this ADJUSTED equation seems fairly accurate to predict, with given data, who will win the Cy Young award.

In part 2, I will examine the 2011 N.L. Cy Young race with this ADJUSTED Cy Young Predictor and find each pitcher’s probability of winning the Cy Young. Will a Phillies pitcher take it home, or do the odds rest with another N.L. starter? 

Written By Todd Drager
Republished With Permission From 7thAndPattison.com

Follow Him on Twitter @7thandpattison

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Domonic Brown: Why His Injury Benefits the Phillies

Domonic Brown is the tenth best prospect in the majors according the ESPN.com’s analyst Keith Law. Recently, Brown fractured his hamate bone in his hand. Surgery will be required, and he will have to miss 4-6 weeks.

This is a blessing for the Phillies. It is never a good thing when a player gets injured, but this injury is not necessarily a bad thing. Ben Francisco is in line for the starting right field job.

Before the injury, Brown and Francisco were battling for the right field starting position. Brown had a very unimpressive spring before injuring himself, batting an abysmal .063.

Francisco on the other hand has batted .364 and has a .417 on base percentage. He also has an .818 slugging percentage.

No, an .818 slugging percentage is not exaggeration!

Francisco is a tested veteran who has had success in a bench role with the Phillies. Brown on the other hand, has very little MLB experience.

Last season in a bench role as a September call-up, Brown hit .212 with 2 home runs.

There is way too much pressure as a highly touted prospect, filling in for Jayson Werth, on a team with the highest expectations in baseball.

Time in the minors will benefit Brown, who needs to get his swing straight. The Phillies staff has been toying with Domonic’s swing and his hand placement on the bat.

Brown needs to find the way he is comfortable swinging the bat. With some work, Domonic Brown has the potential to be a great right fielder in the Major League.

Emphasis on WORK. Brown needs to work on his game and mature before he is ready to succeed in the majors. 

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Chase Utley: What’s the Real Deal?

Chase Utley has become a household name over the past few years. Not just for those in Philadelphia, but for baseball fans everywhere.

Some say he is the best second baseman currently playing the game. Others take their assessment to a new level by predicting that he will be the best second baseman to ever set foot in Major League Baseball.

For what reason do people admire Chase so much? Managers and coaches seem to fall in love with his hustle and passion for the game, claiming that he is the model of a true baseball player.

Women, too, love Chase, falling in love with his—well, just with him. Chase also serves as a role model to young people who aspire to play the game of baseball. And to Phillies’ fans, Chase is the player that you hope to see coming up to the plate with two outs, down by a run in the ninth.

When he delivers at the plate or on the field, we all hear the voice of the late and great Harry Kalas in our minds saying, “Chase Utley, you ARE the man!”

Chase is everyone’s favorite, and has proven that he can fulfill fan expectations. He’s been selected to the All-Star Game each of the past five seasons, and finished in the top-20 of NL Most Valuable Player voting five of the last six seasons.

Now it’s time for a bit of truth in the Chase Utley saga. Over the past three seasons, Chase hasn’t exactly proven to be the clutch, line-drive home-run-hitting, exciting player that he was in the past. Of course, we see glimpses of vintage Chase Utley often, but is he really the same player anymore?

After a multitude of long-term injuries, extensive hitting slumps, and sloppy defensive plays, some people are starting to believe that Chase Utley may have reached his breaking point. If you’re one of those fans who want to be slightly blinded by Chase’s charm, take a look at some statistics. You know what they say—statistics just don’t lie.

 

Chase Utley Stats Chart:

 

	2007	2008	2009	2010
BA	.332	.292	.282	.275
H	176	177	161	117
HR	22	31	33	16
RBI	103	104	93	65
GP	132	159	156	115
TB	300	325	290	189
SLG%	.566	.535	.508	.445

 

Clearly, Chase has been experiencing a downward trend in offense since 2007. Since then, he has gradually worsened in vital aspects of the game—like total bases, slugging percentage, hits, runs batted in, games played, and his batting average. The only stat that maintained better production from 2007-2009 was his home run total—reaching a career high in 2009 with 33, but still failing to reach even half that in 2010.

Another concern with Chase is his aforementioned injury problems. If there was one thing that could spoil the greatly anticipated 2011 season, it would be an injury to a key player like Utley.

With Chase already entering into Spring Training 2011 with soreness—unable to even play in a game yet—he has the team, Charlie Manuel, and, most importantly, his fans wondering if he will ever truly reach his MVP-caliber self once again. Is he really the player everyone thought he was, or will he continue his downward spiral?

Only time will tell.

Hopefully, Chase will see some game action soon so the concerns about his health can be eliminated. Then he can begin the journey towards an injury-free season—one filled with those oh-so-special moments where we realize that Chase Utley really is the man.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Dom Brown Injury and Why It’s Not a Bad Thing

Philadelphia Phillies star rookie prospect Domonic Brown fractured the hamate bone of his right hand during an at-bat in last Saturday’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Clearwater, Florida.

This was a major blow to a player who had just gotten his first hit this spring training after looking lost since the start of the preseason.

While the injury has derailed Brown’s spring, the Phillies may be better off without him, at least for now.

The following slideshow shows why the Phillies will be fine without Dom Brown in the short term.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Reasons the Phillies Should Consider a 4-Man Rotation

In a December to remember, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired the most-coveted MLB free-agency gem in Cliff Lee.

The Phillies’ rotation now includes Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton.

Lee gave the Phillies their fourth legitimate ace and the group was christened R2C2.  This group has the potential to be historically good, which has gotten a lot of people thinking: Why do they even need a fifth starter?

While the Phillies have not expressed any interest in a four-man rotation in the regular season, with four pitchers that are this good, talk has to be going around.

This list is devoted to analyzing why the Phillies might consider going to a four-man rotation in 2011.

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Philadephia Phillies Rookie Domonic Brown Dealt a Bad Hand: What’s Next?

For those of us who we’re hoping for a healthy spring for the Philadelphia Phillies in Clearwater, Fla., we may be in for a rough month.

Future left handed specialist Antonio Bastardo has been moving slowly and gingerly through the month of March and Chase Utley is nursing patellar tendinitis in his right knee, which was recently treated with a cortisone injection.

The Phillies may have received their biggest blow of the spring on Saturday, however, when rookie right fielder Domonic Brown learned his hand was broken.

It’s been a rough spring for Brown, and at a glance on Saturday, things seemed to be improving. After going 0-for-15 during the first few weeks of spring training, Brown finally broke loose of that goose egg, hitting a solid single up the middle.

Once he got to first base however, it wasn’t hard to tell he was in a good deal of pain.

During the previous at bat, Brown fouled off a pitch by Pittsburgh Pirates‘ starter Paul Maholm and the ball caught him square on his hand. He shook it off, not thinking much of it at the time and stepped back in, finishing the at bat and collecting his first base hit of the spring.

For that reason alone, it was surprising to see Brown out of the game for the next half inning, when John Mayberry Jr. took his place. A few moments later, Brown was seen jogging toward the clubhouse with Phillies head trainer Scott Sheridan right behind him.

After the game, x-rays revealed Brown had a pretty nasty break. He had fractured the hook of the hamate bone in his right hand. Believe it or not, the injury is quite common in sports—especially those that required the hands gripping something, like a baseball bat or a golf club. It is also called the “wrist bone” and is located below the palm and before the arm begins.

Though he’ll likely need surgery, Brown is in good hands—no pun intended.

He’ll fly to Philadelphia to see hand specialist Randall Culp—the same man who corrected Utley’s torn thumb ligament last season. The recovery for the hand surgery is likely going to be four to six weeks, which answers the first “what’s next” question for Brown.

With just 16 at-bats and a base hit to his name this spring, he certainly will not be the Phillies’ right fielder when Opening Day rolls around on April 1.

Charlie Manuel made good on his word when he said Brown would see plenty of playing time and the young outfielder was quite the disappointment.

On the other hand, his main competition, Ben Francisco, has impressed this spring, making his claim to be the permanent right fielder by posting an early slash line of .421/.476/.947, with two home runs.

The way the two have been hitting, it’s hard to imagine Brown was going to beat out Francisco to win the job anyway. His injury just makes the decision that much easier on the likes of Manuel and Ruben Amaro Jr.

When asked about that right field job, Amaro told the media, “Nobody has won our right field job, but Ben has done very, very well for us.”

With Brown out of the picture, things are beginning to fall into place. Unless something unfortunate happens, Francisco will be the everyday right fielder and John Mayberry Jr. or another outfielder will take his place on the bench.

Where does that leave Brown?

“He wasn’t in a rhythm,” Amaro said. To be frank, he hasn’t been in a rhythm for a long while—since his call-up at the end of July last season. Amaro would then go on to lay the groundwork for the outfielder’s future, confirming everyone’s suspicion that Brown would return to AAA once healthy. Where does he go after that?

At first glance, two scenarios are developing for Brown and one depends on the success of Francisco as an everyday player.

As a right-handed hitter, Francisco brings a certain level of balance to the Phillies lineup. If he can play at an acceptable level throughout the season, there is no reason to make him split time with Brown. It doesn’t do either of them any good, developmentally. However, that situation is indeed present.

If Francisco begins to struggle and Brown finds his stride in AAA, the Phillies could make a move to promote Brown and insert him into the everyday lineup, with Francisco returning to his role on the bench. The two could platoon in right field as well, which was the plan before spring training began.

On the other hand, maybe developing Brown for another full season isn’t the worst idea. After the season, the Phillies are going to need another corner outfielder when Raul Ibanez’s contract expires. Of course, this scenario would see Francisco develop into an everyday right fielder, giving the Phillies depth on the corners moving forward.

Francisco, who could play both right and left field, would slide over to claim Ibanez’s spot and Brown would take over the right field job. In a perfect world, the Phillies would have successfully developed two major league-capable corner outfielders in this scenario.

Without having to spend money on the outfield, the team could address other areas of concern, namely shortstop, the bullpen and the starting rotation.

So when we question what’s next for Domonic Brown, the answer is pretty simple. He’ll play for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs for at the very least a couple of months this year, and re-join the Phillies full-time by 2012.

Let’s face the facts for a moment—this is an aging team that will need Brown for some life in the next couple of years.

Now may not be his time, but it’s too soon to write him off.

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MLB: Power Ranking the Top 10 Likely Dubious Milestones of 2011

Baseball is a game of numbers and milestones, be they admirable achievements or regrettable results.

Earlier today, I posted a piece that ranked the top 12 milestones likely to be reached in 2011. All of the featured players and their fans should be proud of these accomplishments that speak to their excellence over the course of their careers (http://bleacherreport.com/slideshow/627753/new).

On the other side of the diamond, if you will, is this companion piece which features 10 more dubious milestones that are also likely to be reached in 2011.

Granted, there are several very good players on this slideshow, at least a couple of whom are strong candidates for Cooperstown. That makes sense as one has to be a good batter to keep fanning at historic proportions, or a better-than-average pitcher to have the opportunity to uncork a ton of wild pitches or lose a bunch of ballgames.

The beauty of baseball is that the best players (and, in fairness, not all of these guys are great, except compared to me and you) learn to come to grips with their failures because baseball puts a premium on a positive attitudes and great resiliency.

Please join me on this slightly treacherous jog around the diamond in the following players’ honor.

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