MLB Power Rankings: B/R Columnists Rank All 30 Teams for the 2011 Season

Most baseball predictions are relatively straightforward. Sure, you can argue over whether Joey Votto will be better than Albert Pujols or who will win the AL East, but as long as the focus is on just one outcome, it’s at least easy to understand the train of thought.

That’s why, when one person decides to power rank all 30 MLB teams, things inevitably go awry.

There’s a general consensus about how the top and the bottom should look, but in between the two extremes, things can get pretty screwy. One man’s top-three team is in another man’s bottom five.

Luckily, Bleacher Report’s Featured Columnists have found a solution. Twenty-six of the site’s most knowledgeable writers, representing 18 teams, all wrote in with their lists, which we combined into this—our composite power rankings, in which the group consensus outweighs our individual biases.

For each team, you can see our average ranking, as well as the extreme highs and lows they reached on our ballots. The numbers are accompanied by commentary from 18 different writers, so you can read a whole range of different perspectives on how the 2011 season will shake out.

Thank you to everyone who contributed to this survey—now let’s see how we do!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Carrying 11 Pitchers Makes Sense for Battered Team

When Cliff Lee decided to re-join the Philadelphia Phillies in mid-December, the first thought racing through the mind of every Phils fan rotated around a star-studded rotation that would help the team get the revenge they declared they would seek following a bitter ending to the National League Championship Series.

As the initial shock wore off, some of us baseball scribes posed a more interesting question: How many pitchers are too many for the Phillies?

The addition of Lee shored up a mediocre bullpen in an interesting way. He would now join Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels to form a front four that averaged at least seven innings a start in 2010. Even the fifth starter, Joe Blanton, averaged more than six innings a start last season.

In large part thanks to Halladay, the Phillies led the league in complete games with 14, and the bullpen threw a National League-low 421 innings—without Lee.

An incredibly durable rotation helped what was once a mediocre bullpen become much more reliable late in games. Of course, a lot of that had to do with health and performance. Former starter Jose Contreras settled into his seventh inning role nicely, while over the final months of the seasons, setup man Ryan Madson and closer Brad Lidge were nearly untouchable.

For that reason alone, heading into the 2011 season, the Phils have to feel pretty good about the state of their bullpen, because they certainly feel good about the strength of their starting pitching. The bullpen’s only loss was middle-innings guy Chad Durbin, while JC Romero looks to rebound from an injury-plagued 2010 season.

It really isn’t a difficult observation to make—the starting rotation, barring injury, is going to log a ton of innings in front of a bullpen that has the potential to be very strong at the back end. With a core of relievers virtually guaranteed roster spots, the need for the “last man out of the bullpen,” or the 12th pitcher on the roster, is growing incredibly slim.

Excluding the five guys that will compose the starting rotation, we know that six more pitchers are virtual locks for the bullpen. Lidge, Madson, Contreras and Romero will all be heading north for Opening Day. Another pair of relievers, Danys Baez and Kyle Kendrick, are near locks to make the club thanks to the guaranteed dollars on their contracts and spring performances that can’t be used as an excuse to leave them behind.

Looking over that group of six, though, you have more than just a few good single-inning relievers. You also have more than one guy that is capable of logging several innings per outing. Kendrick will most likely break camp as the team’s long man thanks to the depth of the starting rotation. Though he may not have been very effective as a starter last season, he did log 180 innings for the Phils.

The same case can be argued for several other relievers on the roster. Outside of Lidge and Romero, who will be used primarily against left-handed hitters, Contreras, Madson and Baez could all throw more than one inning for the Phillies—though keeping those guys to one inning a\piece may be the better option.

In short, the need for yet another reliever is obsolete behind a starting rotation that will probably be sapping innings from the six guys that are almost guaranteed to make the roster. The question now becomes, “What do the Phils do with that last spot on the 25-man roster?”

Obviously, it should go to another utility player, giving the Phillies more options both in the field and on the bench.

While I’m the ultimate optimist in regards to the health of Chase Utley‘s knee (which by the way, he tested out with pivot drills on the second base bag today) and will argue that claims that he won’t play this season are flat-out ludicrous (I know, I know, I can’t help myself), he will, at the very least, open the season on the 15-day disabled list.

That virtually guarantees a replacement second baseman a job, which in this case, we’ll award to Wilson Valdez.

With that out of the way, we know eight guys will be playing every day for the Phillies: Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, Valdez, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and Ben Francisco. Love it or hate it, that’s the lineup.

The bench is shaping up as well with just under two weeks of spring training left to play. Lefties Brian Schneider and Ross Gload will make the team without question, and with Francisco having played his way into the right field job, John Mayberry Jr. has played his way on to the bench (and has garnered some serious consideration for the starting job from this baseball scribe.)

So where does that leave the bench? Schneider, as he did last season, will serve as Ruiz’s understudy. Backup catcher—check.

While Charlie Manuel has gone on the record stating that Gload can win some playing time in right field, I’m not buying. He’s too valuable a late-inning pinch hitter to start on a regular basis. He’ll play some backup first base, as well as right field. Primary left-handed pinch hitter—check.

Mayberry has been impressive this spring. I can’t see him not making the roster, and he upped his versatility by playing some first base as well as the corner outfield positions. Fourth outfielder/first baseman—check.

Not carrying that 12th pitcher gives the Phillies some options to fill out their bench, where the competition has been very heated this spring. While some fans may cringe at his name, I’m under the impression that Luis Castillo is a virtual lock to make this team, and the Phils could use him.

While a lot of people believe that Valdez is the better choice at second base to replace Utley, I like to go against the grain. As I argued in this piece earlier in the week, giving Valdez an everyday job takes away from his overall value.

Let’s face the music—the Phillies are an older team. While I’m not going to give you the “they are old and decrepit” speech, they are the type of team that can and will have to avoid injuries by giving their starters adequate rest.

In that instance, a player with Valdez’s versatility is key. Having played just about every position on the diamond this spring, the Phils will find Valdez plenty of playing time, regardless of whether he’s the starting second baseman or not.

In the long run, he makes a much better utility player than Castillo, who, believe it or not, could still benefit a lineup. He’s a switch hitter, which would give Manuel options in the lineup even in a down year, proved that he can still get on base to a good extent. Basically, this scenario guarantees both Valdez and Castillo spots on the bench.

That leaves one spot on the 25-man roster for a few guys that have played exceptionally well this spring: Delwyn Young, Josh Barfield, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez.

In my personal opinion, Barfield and Orr aren’t likely to make the team, and you won’t catch me crying over that decision. Both of these guys have played well this spring, but they’ve done little outside of it to show that they can be viable options for a major league club. With both guys having minor league options, it makes much more sense to stash them at Triple-A in the event of an injury.

There are benefits to having a guy like Young on your bench. Offensively, he could provide a spark off of the bench. Last season, he was among the league leaders in pinch hits—right in front of Gload—and as a switch hitter, gives Manuel some versatility later in the game.

If the team is comfortable with Valdez playing center field in the event Victorino needs time off, Young could make the team.

Personally, I’d like to see Martinez earn that final spot, though. The Phillies have done very well in the Rule 5 Draft in recent years. Well all know the story of Victorino, but even guys like David Herndon have played well in the roles the Phils drafted them to fill.

Martinez is an interesting blend of talent. He plays every position in the middle of the field, including center field, and provides an actual defensive option should the Phils need to rest both Castillo and Valdez. He’s shown some power and average this spring, and is probably worth keeping around, if for nothing more than keeping him away from the Washington Nationals.

In this scenario, the Phillies essentially have a player for each role they’ll need to fill off of the bench. Along with those listed above, Castillo gives the Phils’ an option at second base, Young gives the Phils a threat from both sides of the plate off of the bench and Martinez can play multiple positions with upside.

For a team that has suffered multiple injuries at multiple positions, having that sixth man on the bench is a luxury that many teams can’t afford.

At the very least, it beats holding on to a pitcher the team will never use.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Baseball Digging for Saves: Is Brad Lidge a Closer to Target?

Some closers are safe bets to perform on a year-in, year-out basis. 

We all know who they are and depending on your strategy when it comes to closers, most of us want to own them. 

For those who like waiting until the late rounds to fill the spot, you must realize that all closers are not created equal. Just because someone appears to be a lock to close games out, it does not make him an option worth targeting.

One such closer is Brad Lidge who, since his epic 2008 campaign, has been a fairly big liability. 

On the surface, his 2010 season doesn’t look too badly:

1 Win
27 Saves
45.2 Innings
2.96 ERA
1.23 WHIP
52 Strikeouts (10.25 K/9)
24 Walks (4.73 BB/9)
.243 BABIP

However, when we start digging in, there are a significant number of reasons to be concerned.

First of all, is anyone willing to bet that Lidge is going to stay healthy for the full year? 

Over the past two seasons, he has had three separate trips to the DL:

• 2009 – Knee
• 2010 – Two separate trips due to elbow issues

If that weren’t enough of a concern, you also have to look at what has actually been a declining strikeout rate: From 2004-2008, his low K/9 was an 11.82 in 2007. 

In the two subsequent seasons, he has been at 9.36 and 10.25. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they are clearly going in the wrong direction.

The fall could be thanks to a fastball that is clearly losing some zip. At 35 years old, that shouldn’t be a surprise, but is he going to be able to reassess his abilities and adjust? 

This is a player who once averaged 96.0 mph on his fastball for an entire season, yet clocked in at just 91.7 mph in 2010. 

Maybe the elbow issues helped to cause it, but who’s to say that he’s even over them?

Without the zip on his fastball, the control, which has always been an issue, becomes an even greater concern. 

Just look at the walk rates over the past three seasons:

• 2008 – 4.54
• 2009 – 5.22
• 2010 – 4.73

Yes, the results were there in two of the three years, but there was also a lot of luck involved, especially in 2010. 

His .243 BABIP and 82 percent strand rate are repeatable, especially from a relief pitcher who works just an inning at a time, but he also could regress back to the mean.

He is no longer among the elite in the game, not by a longshot. In fact, there’s probably a better chance that he blows up and loses the job as opposed to rediscovering his 2008 campaign. 

The Phillies are trying to win a World Series, meaning they aren’t going to be shy about making a change if need be. 

There is just too much risk involved to select him over other options.

According to Mock Draft Central, he’s currently the 18th relief pitcher coming off the board, before guys like Matt Thornton and Joe Nathan. 

Do those two have risk? Absolutely, but the reward, at least at this point, appear to be higher than Lidge’s.

What are your thoughts on Lidge? Is he a player you would target? Why or why not?

 

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Kendrick, Howie
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Span, Denard
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Walker, Neil
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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UPDATED: Jayson Werth Vs. Ben Francisco: A Tale of Two MLB Springs

Spring training is almost over and I know you can’t read too much into players’ spring performances, but I though it would be interesting to compare the old Phillies right fielder against what appears to be his new replacement.

Jayson Werth has appeared in 14 spring games for his new team and has accumulated 39 at-bats with 10 walks for a total of 49 plate appearances, which averages to 3.5 trips to the plate per game.

Ben Francisco has appeared in 20 games with 52 at-bats and 7 walks for 59 plate appearances, an avg. of 2.95 times up a game. Jayson is walking once every five PA’s and Ben is drawing less free passes at a clip of once every eight PA’s.

Jayson has nine hits in his 39 chances for a not-so-good .238 batting average.  Ben, however is fairing much better with 19 hits in his 52 at-bats for a very nice .365 BA.  For sake of curiosity I checked previous springs for both and here is the result:

Ben Francisco hit .333 and .260 in 2009 and 2010, respectively; Jayson hit .333 and .203 for 2009 and 2010, respectively.

Werth, oddly, has yet to hit a home run this spring; he had a fairly respectable 9 combined in his previous 2 springs. Francisco went deep 3 times so far and hit a combined 7 in the last 2 springs. As a matter of fact, Jayson Werth has only 3 extra-base hits this spring, all doubles. Francisco has 7 extra-base hits: the 3 HR’s, 3 doubles and a triple. (Extra info:  John Mayberry, Jr. who will probably platoon with Francisco as Werth’s replacement has 9 extra base hits: 5 HR’s and 4 doubles which means Phillies right fielder’s have a whopping 12 HR’s in spring.) I know it’s only spring but one would assume Jayson would want to really impress his new teammates and bosses with a showing of some of his brutal power we witnessed here in Philly. The fact he hasn’t (at all) should really send up a warning signal.

One last stat: OPS, combined on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, a very telling stat as it shows the ability to not make an out and your ability to get yourself around the bases. Jayson OPS is well below the average starter at .685 and Francisco’s is a whopping 1.085. For comparison, Albert Pujols’ lifetime OPS is 1.011.

So, it’s fairly obvious who is having a better spring. And once again, I know it’s only spring training and it doesn’t mean a whole lot, but spring is where the season and, in most cases, Major League careers start.  If—and this is a big if—they were competing for the same job there would be no question who the winner would be.

Let me know what you think. Really, I’m interested and others are too.

UPDATE: I will be updating the story daily until the season starts with game by game performances for both players.

3/24: Jayson Werth: Nationals off; Ben Francisco: 1 plate appearance, 1 walk; 

3/25: Jayson Werth: 2 for 3, 1 HR, 2 RBI; Ben Francisco: PH, 0 for 1;

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 MLB Preseason Preview: N L East – Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies (2010 record: 97-65) The Phillies entered the new year as one of a handful of teams with a legitimate claim to the designation as the best team in baseball. They entered the free agency fray at the end of the process and lured southpaw Cliff Lee away from both the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. As a result, they have arguably the best rotation in all of baseball (and potentially the best rotation in baseball over the last twenty or thirty years).

However, as spring training got underway, the Phillies learned that All-Star 2B Chase Utley would be lost for an indeterminate time due to an acute case of patella tendinitis in his right knee. Next, rookie outfielder Domonic Brown, who was set to relace veteran Jayson Werth—who left this winter as a free agent—suffered a broken hamate bone in his wrist in a spring training game. He is out indefinitely. 3B Placido Polanco is now felled by a hyper-extended left elbow. Closer Brad Lidge is once again ailing—this time suffering with tendinitis in his right biceps.

Suddenly, the once mighty team (on paper) is looking awfully fragile (in the flesh).

Notable additions: SP Cliff Lee

Notable subtractions: 1B Mike Sweeney, RF Jayson Werth

The offense:

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz

Infield: Ryan Howard (1B), Wilson Valdez (2B), Jimmy Rollins (SS) and Placido Polanco (3B)

Outfield: Raul Ibanez (LF), Shane Victorino (CF) and Ben Francisco (RF)

The offense finished second in the league in runs last season, and was already faced with the loss of Werth (.296/27/85) to the Washington Nationals. Now, the loss of Utley—who posted an OPS+ of 124—will compound the problems with the lineup. He will be replaced by UT Wilson Valdez, who played in a career-high 111 games last season because of injuries to Utley and SS Jimmy Rollins. While he is capable of replacing Utley in the field, he hit just .258, with 4 HR and 35 RBI.

1B Ryan Howard continues to be the primary cog in the Phillies machine. Over the course of the last five seasons, he leads the majors in homers (229) and RBIs (680).

With Utley out of the lineup, the club will have to rely on bounce-back seasons from Rollins, Ibanez and Victorino.

Rollins, a switch-hitter, was slowed by injuries last season. Though not the prototypical leadoff man, he regularly got on base enough to justify batting atop the lineup, but over the last two years his age seems to have been hindering his production. Last year, he hit just .243 with eight HR and 17 stolen bases. A return to his 2007-08 form (.287, 20 HR, 44 SB) would go a long way to minimizing the loss of Utley.

Similarly, age seems to have sapped some of the power from the bat of Raul Ibanez, who hit fewer than 20 homers last year for the first time since 2004. The Phillies and their fans would love to see him return to his 2009 form (34 HR, 93 RBI). A strong second half last year gives the organization hope.

Victorino won his third consecutive Gold Glove last year, but saw his batting average and on-base percentage both regress by more than 30 points. With the diminished on-base skills, his runs-scored fell from 102 (in both 2008 and 2009) to just 84 in 2010. It goes without saying the club will need those extra runs in light of the loss of Utley (and Brown).

Ruiz is an excellent backstop who is among the best in the game at handling the pitching staff. Happily, he also provides solid offensive contributions – hitting .302, with a .400 OBP, last year.

Polanco is a contact hitter who doesn’t provide much in the way of power at a position that is routinely counted on for home runs and rbi in today’s game (he has hit just 96 HR in 13 seasons in the big leagues).

Ben Francisco will take over in right field until Brown’s wrist heals. While Francisco has never had more than 450 AB in a season, he can be a valuable fill-in or platoon player. He posted a line of .266/.332/.438 in 121 games with Cleveland as recently as 2008.

The pitching staff:

Rotation: RHP Roy Halladay, LHP Cliff Lee, LHP Cole Hamels, RHP Roy Oswalt, and RHP Joe Blanton

Closer: RHP Brad Lidge

The pitching staff improved significantly with the addition of Lee. After all of the drama of whether he would head to New York or Texas, he selected Philadelphia… and we later learned the Phillies were his top choice all along. During his brief stint in The City of Brotherly Love back in 2009, he enjoyed the city, the fans, the organization and his teammates. I look for him to make a run at 20 wins this year.

Halladay, the reigning NL Cy Young, is a seven-time all-star who has now won the Cy Young Award in each league. He is considered by many to be the best pitcher in the league, and I expect that he, too, will make a run at 20 wins.

Among Lee, Oswalt and Hamels there are another seven all-star game appearances. Lee has also won a Cy Young Award, having been so honored when he was with Cleveland, in 2008.

Halladay (.662), Oswalt (.643) and Lee (.625) enter 2011 ranked first, fifth and eighth in career winning percentage (among active pitchers with at least 100 decisions). ‘Nuff said.

The weakness of the club last year was its relief corps, which ranked 9th of the 16 teams in the National League last year. Lidge is a strength at the back end of the bullpen—when healthy. He bounced back from a rough 2009 to convert 27-of-32 save opportunities last season, including 21-of-23 in the second half, when he compiled a 2.10 ERA.

Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras are excellent set-up men. Madson has electric stuff, and had arguably the best season of his career – though he blew half of the save opportunities entrusted to him (5-of-10). Contreras moved to the bullpen for the first time since making nine appearances in relief for the NY Yankees in his rookie year (2003). He made a seamless transition, going 6-4, 3.34, with 4 saves (5 save chances) in 67 games.

Southpaw JC Romero continued his tendency for roller-coaster outings—allowing lots of base runners but escaping peril more often than not. It would be remarkable to see what he might accomplish over a full season if he didn’t walk as many batters (42 BB in 53.1 IP over the last two years).

Prediction for 2011: 1st place (96-66)

Thoughts of a 100-win season died with the demise of Utley. Still, the Phillies rotation is outstanding and will enable the club to win more than its share of 4-3 and 3-2 games on the nights the offense isn’t clicking.

My mid-January prediction projected them to go 100-62. Based on my belief Utley will be gone half of the year (or more), I am knocking four wins off that projection.

Oh, yeah, and one other related issue… even when Utley returns—IF he returns—what kind of production will he supply? His OPS has dipped from .976 (in 2007) to .832 (in 2010).

 

Top Five Prospects:

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jarred Cosart, RHP
3. Trevor May, RHP
4. Jesse Biddle, LHP
5. Sebastian Valle, C

Brown is an exceptional athlete who was drafted out of Redan High School (in Stone Mountain, GA) in 2006. The schoolboy standout passed up a chance to be a two-sport standout at the University of Miami (FL) to sign with the Phillies for $200K.

Brown has been compared to Barry Bonds and Darryl Strawberry due to his physical attributes. He projects to be a five-tool standout throughout his career. He generates incredible bat speed, and his upper-cut swing would make Ted Williams proud. He has a short, quick, powerful stroke that should generate 25+ HR regularly in the big leagues, especially in Citizens Bank Park. He has above average speed and decent instincts on the base paths.

Defensively, he is a work in progress. He doesn’t take especially good routes to fly balls, and for such a good athlete he seems to have some difficulties with his footwork. He has the strongest arm in the system, though it can be a bit erratic. Still, with seasoning, he will be the type of defender opposing base runners will want to be cautious with.

He got his baptism in the major leagues late last year, getting into 35 games (but getting just 62 at-bats). His first full season in Philadelphia will be delayed due to a broken wrist, suffered in a spring training game but when he arrives he will make an immediate impact. Take it to the bank.

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2011 Major League Basball: Ranking the Top 10 Franchise Pitchers

Major League Baseball is a funny game, it’s not like the NBA where guys can just play offense and win games.  Baseball requires a franchise to have dominant pitching that will shutdown the opposing offense players.  

A top of the line pitcher is one who’ll take the rubber under his control and dictate what happens next through out the course of a game.

Sadly, there aren’t quite as many of these guys out there as you would think.

So who are the top 10 franchise pitchers?

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Philadelphia Phillies: Can Roy Halladay Match or Surpass His 2010 Season?

In 2010, Roy “Doc” Halladay joined a new team, switched leagues in the process and pitched better than ever.

In Doc’s case, that’s saying something. He was coming off eight consecutive stellar seasons as the Toronto Blue Jays ace (which included six All-Star appearances, a Cy Young and four other top-five finishes), and although he pitched in relative obscurity, many already considered him to be the best pitcher in the game.

Those who did not know the Phillies‘ new ace of aces all that well before 2010 were astonished by his combination of work ethic, nasty stuff and humility.

Those who knew him from his AL East days—where he led an inferior team into battle against the likes of the Yankees and the Red Sox—still marveled at how easily he dominated the National League.

No matter how you choose to view Halladay’s inaugural season in the season circuit, you come away quite impressed.

 

Traditional Stats: 21-10, 2.44 ERA with 219 strikeouts against only 30 walks in a league-leading 250.2 innings pitched. He also led the majors with nine complete games.

Halladay posted a 2-1 record with a 2.45 ERA in his first ever postseason.

 

Inside Numbers: A WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 6.98 and career-best full-season marks for WHIP (1.041 walks and hits per nine innings) and ERA-plus (165: the higher the better—100 is average).

 

Geeky stats aside (and there are tons more that show Doc to be at or near the head of his class), we haven’t even mentioned his special accolades.

Halladay, of course, threw a regular-season perfect game at Florida and hurled a no-hitter against a powerful Cincinnati Reds team to open the playoffs.

He capped it all off by capturing the NL Cy Young. In a season that featured very strong performances by the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright and the Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez, Halladay won the award unanimously.

To a team player like Roy Halladay, the opportunity to pitch for a championship contender made 2010 his most memorable campaign.

Indeed, after receiving his Cy Young last November, the modest right-hander was quoted by several news sources as saying: “It’s by far the most fun I’ve ever had playing this game. It was just tremendous from Day 1 to the end.”

The beauty of Halladay’s demeanor is that for all he has attained personally in a career that will one day earn him a plaque in Cooperstown, he is motivated by team accomplishments. Setting the stage for new teammates Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee, Halladay wanted to pitch in Philadelphia—for a team and a city that he could help bring a championship.

Last year, for all of his heroics, the team fell six victories short. This year—injuries to Chase Utley and Brad Lidge notwithstanding—the sky is the limit, and expectations are extremely high.

To which this columnist poses the following question: What can Phillies fans and baseball pundits expect to see out of Halladay this season?

After all, with only 31 wins this year (and if a relative journeyman like Denny McLain could do it…) Doc will earn his 200th regular season victory.

OK, it’s fairly safe to say that no pitcher will win 30 games again, and earning 20 is no mean feat. But what’s a reasonable number?

On the one hand, Halladay, who will turn 34 in May, is certainly pitching like he is in his prime. He is also coming off a combined 272-plus innings of work last year. Can he manage a similar workload in back-to-back years?

Halladay has pitched at least 220 innings in seven of his last nine seasons, including the last five.

There are two ways to look at this.

Pessimistically: It’s bound to catch up with him.

Optimistically: He’s used to the heavy workload and thrives on it—and can one question his preparation and work habits?

(Did I mention that in the history of Major League Baseball, no pitcher born in Colorado and past the age of 30 has ever pitched more than 250 innings in consecutive years? You can look it up. I didn’t, but you can.)

My own middle ground is to hope that Halladay finishes the regular season with somewhere around 230 innings and a full tank for the expected postseason run. Doc has been so consistent the last several years that it is reasonable to expect an ERA at or under 2.75 and about 19 wins (he will be at the mercy of an offense that may not produce as much this year).

Then, as everyone knows, it’s all about the playoffs.

Toward that end, the man widely regarded as the best pitcher on Planet Earth took the ball yesterday in a matchup against AL Cy Young contender Jon Lester and the powerful Boston Red Sox.

Halladay (now 3-0) out-dueled his Red Sox counterpart, scattering five hits and yielding only one run in 7.2 innings of quality work. Ryan Madson got the last four outs to earn the save.

Alas, it was only March 21, but it was an encouraging sign.

If the same box score unfolds seven months from now, it will be huge.

When it comes to Roy Halladay, is anyone betting against it?

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and public appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report home page.

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MLB Trade Rumors: What Movable Prospects Have Maximized Their Value This Spring?

Generally, when some of a team’s best prospects are having a good spring, the first thing that comes to mind isn’t whether or not they’ve improved their trade value—but that’s one of the greatest things about baseball.

After you get past watching your favorite team don their spring uniforms for the first time and you have a general idea of what the team will look like when it takes the field on Opening Day, some of the spring’s most impressive players will have found new homes with minor league affiliates, the most notable of which are the team’s promising young talents.

Despite tearing the cover off of the ball or throwing scoreless inning after scoreless inning, the team isn’t ready to promote your favorite prospect. Their performances haven’t gone unnoticed, however.

Scouts have been following your team all spring long, watching some of the most promising young arms and slick defenders, lights-out relievers and thunderous bats in case your team comes calling later on in the season when a prospect just won’t cut it. In order to add that timely veteran, you’ll have to part with some promising young talent.

So with that in mind, which prospects’ hot spring starts will make them hotter commodities on the trade market in the near future?

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Philadelphia Phillies Fans: Two Studies and Two Vastly Different Results

So last week the brilliant minds at sports magazine extraordinaire GQ released their highly scientific list of the worst fans in sports and Phillies and Eagles fans came out on top…or bottom, I guess? 

GQ no doubt conducted rigorous testing and extensive surveying and spent hundreds of man-hours in an effort to clearly define and pinpoint exactly who were the worst fans in all of professional sports…or they just made it up based on whatever seemed like it would get the most press and seemed like it could possibly be true. 

It’s not clear which of these two things happened and GQ makes no effort to explain.  But one thing is for sure, when you are looking for relevant and important fact-based sports information, GQ is where you turn.  It really is what they are best known for.

Meanwhile, this week, Brand Keys, a company focused on consumer research and engagement metrics, conducted a market research study (Wikipedia it GQ) on fans and their sports teams.  The results were first released by some obscure news outlet called Bloomberg (???) who I’m sure were so desperate for news they were the only ones who Brand Keys could get to listen to their study. 

Apparently, this Bloomberg thing is nowhere near the intellectual propertyof mega-news outlet GQ, especially when it comes to sports.  These results, according to this Bloomberger, showed that the Phillies were No. 1 in fan loyalty for Major League Baseball and the Flyers, Philadelphia’s pro hockey team, were No. 2 for the NHL.  Way to go savages!

Is there perhaps a correlation between the two studies?  It’s hard to tell because in reality, the GQ piece doesn’t appear to have any actual data to back it up.  Apparently, GQ just took some sensationalist headlines to determine its’ results.   I wonder if they’re hiring.

Don’t get me wrong, all the headlines are actually related to real stories, but as we all know most news outlets these days tend to gravitate towards the negative.  After all, that’s what people like to read, right?  I mean, who cares about the story of two 13 year-old Phillies fans who sold their $5,500 a piece 2009 World Series Tickets (Diamond Club!!!) to donate to a local school when you have a juicy piece about some moron who vomited on a girl.  And of course, GQ makes the completely accurate assumption that most fans are of the latter variety…because why wouldn’t they?

However, Brand Keys, who bill themselves as “The World Leader in Customer Loyalty and Engagement Metrics”, actually put the work in (give them a call GQ and I’m sure they’ll give you some instructions).  Their results are actually backed with something called data?  Who’d a thunk it?  Apparently, there were polls of sports fans in every major U.S. city and an associated survey and moderators and complicated math…you know, work.

So I guess, the end result would be that Philadelphia now holds the duopoly of worst and most loyal sports fans.  You know, I’ll take that over best and most traitorous any day of the week. 

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Signing of Luis Castillo Raises More Concerns About Utley

Those who were hoping for an Opening Day miracle in the form of a healthy Chase Utley are going to be sorely disappointed. The signing of veteran second baseman Luis Castillo to a minor league deal means that Utley may be down for a long time.

This move seems like the Phillies are taking out the Mets’ trash in the hope of turning it into treasure. But Castillo was just released from the Mets for poor performance and a poor attitude. The move cost the Mets $6 million to eat Castillo’s contract. With that in mind, they must have wanted him gone very badly.

Once upon a time, Castillo was a very good player. But the 35-year-old is coming off a season where he hit only .235 with 17 RBI and played just 86 games due to injuries.

And guess what body part gives Castillo the most issues? His legs, more specifically knees, ankles and feet, have been trouble for Castillo for many years now. So the Phillies are trying to replace a second baseman with a bad knee with another second baseman with a bad knee?

There are at least four guys already in camp with the Phillies who can replace Utley temporarily.  This includes Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, Josh Barfield and Pete Orr. All have hit well, especially Valdez, who is batting .419 in 43 at-bats.

But the Castillo contract is low-risk, as the Phillies have to pay him less, only $414,000, if he makes the 25-man roster  However, can they accurately assess Castillo’s play with only nine games to go?

This move stinks of desperation from a team that has maxed out its payroll. And it also does not bode well for the present or future of Utley.

Clearly, the knee issue is much worse than anticipated. And the fact that surgery has not been done yet is an even bigger red flag. If the Phillies are so worried that surgery could make matters worse, then Utley’s future, even beyond 2011, is a huge question mark too.

Hang on, Phillies fans. This is going to be a very long and very strange trip through the 2011 season.

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