Is There a Battle Brewing Between Phillies’ Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley?

The Phillies played two games on Saturday in split squad action.  Kyle Kendrick started against the Rays in Clearwater and Vance Worley took the mound against the Pirates in Bradenton.

Worley did well and allowed just one run over 3.1 innings on two hits and two walks while striking out five batters.  Kendrick, on the other hand, looked good for two innings, but was then slammed with three homers from lefties in his final two innings.  The five runs Kendrick surrendered contributed to a 6-2 Phillies loss.

While it is only spring training, the question of whether or not Kendrick can get left-handed batters out still remains.  In four seasons with the Phillies, Kendrick has been consistently inconsistent.  The issues with lefties, a sinker ball that does not always sink and his tendency to become frustrated on the mound are concerning.

With all the experience he has gained over the years, the time for Kendrick to get it together into one complete package may be now or never.

Worley, 23, is younger and has less experience.  But in the long run, he may turn out to be the better pitcher between the two.  In 13 innings with the big club last year, Worley posted a 1.38 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.  His minor league lifetime WHIP is 1.280.

In addition, Worley has a variety of pitches, including both a two-seam and four-seam fastball, slider, curve and cut fastball.

It is possible that Worley will have outpitched Kendrick by the end of spring?  If so, do the Phillies go with Worley or stick with experience in Kendrick?

There is a different possibility as well.  If another bullpen pitcher bombs, like Danys Baez for example, there could be room for both players.  This also gives the Phillies additional options in the case that a starting pitcher gets injured.  Although, having two long-men in the bullpen seems unlikely, as Worley could easily be recalled from the minors if needed.

With only a few weeks left this spring, both pitchers will need to bring their A-games.

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Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and the Phillies Must Try to Redefine Small Ball!

For years now, Phillies fans have been screaming about the Phils playing what they consider to be “small ball.”

Particularly, the criticism has fallen on the shoulders of top of the lineup team members Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.

So what exactly is “small ball”, especially in the modern age of baseball.

Too often, fans tend to associate the term with bunts, stolen bases and the hit-and-run play.

I contend that there is more to small ball than infield singles, sacrifice plays, steals and the old “hit and run.”

All of these things are involved in “small ball,” don’t get me wrong, but you can play small ball and still manage to hit the ball hard.

This is where Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino come in.

Do these “little guys” go for the home run a little too often?  Probably.

Could they steal more bases?  That is probably a matter of conjecture.

I am certainly no batting coach, which is good, because I enjoy being gainfully employed, but I have noticed that when these guys keep their hands higher, they tend to hit more line drives and fewer fly balls and pop-ups.

Remember when Jimmy Rollins had his 38 game hitting streak?  He was a line drive machine.  When Jimmy won the ’07 MVP, he did hit 30 home runs, but he also was hitting line drives.

Victorino seems at his best when hitting line drives.  Even his enormous grand slam against C.C. Sabathia in the ’08 NLDS was a line drive that barely cleared the left field wall.

My point is that these guys don’t have to chop the ball into the ground and bunt for their hits.  The contention amongst fans is that they both have “Willie Mays Hayes Syndrome,” which is somewhat valid.

They probably do go for the four-bagger more often than they should, but they guys do have some power for their respective, diminutive statures. 

They are at their most successful as hitters when they are hitting line drives for base hits, or line drives in the gaps for doubles and triples.

Now, here’s where the whole “modern definition of small ball” comes into play.

I look at the modern definition of “small ball” as being congruent with the old definition of “the rally.”

For years now, the Phillies have been playing their version of “Earl Weaver Baseball,” which is try to pitch well, and wait for the three run home run.

However, in recent years, when the Phillies pitching was less than optimal, it was more like, “Try to keep us in the game with pitching, and wait for three home runs.”

Well, that is a good strategy when you’ve got the lineup to do it.  Actually, it’s pretty much never a good strategy.

The home run is, admittedly, a big blow, and sometimes can really be a dagger in an opposing team, if it comes at the right time.

The rally, however, is continuous, and is harder to overcome for an opposing team, especially for a pitcher.

A pitcher gives up a home run, and if he has the mental wear-with-all, can proverbially “shake it off.”  It is much more difficult to shake off a rally of five consecutive hits.

When the rally begins, it’s like trying to plug a hole.  As the hits keep coming, the floodgates begin to open, and even the best pitchers out there will begin to crumble.

I like Victorino as a player, and at this point in his career, I consider Rollins to have a chance at Cooperstown.  I just do not think that you take away the pop in their bats.  With that said, perhaps they could concentrate on “leveling off”, instead of swinging from the heels.

I’m not alone in this theory.  Even the greatest third baseman of all-time, the one and only Mike Schmidt, agrees.

At one point in his career, I believe it to have been during his slump in the 1985 season, Schmidtty decided to change his batting approach and stop upper-cutting on the baseball. 

He deliberately swung down on a ball, and actually hit it off the scoreboard in left.  Now, he’s trying to pass this along to the Phils speedsters.

Again, this is not about asking these guys to bunt or chop the ball for infield singles.  We want the pop in the bat, but we know that line drives can result in batting averages that are at least 30 points higher.

Honestly, I do not think that their home runs would be significantly diminished with this approach.

With the uncertainty of Chase Utley’s knee, the first reaction is to say, “Well, we’ve still got Rollins and Victorino, and one of them can hit third.  They can hit home runs.”

One of them could hit third, especially when they cannot both hit leadoff, and Placido Polanco is such a consummate two-hole hitter.

That does not mean, however, that they have to swing for the fences.  If they level off, the home runs will still come, but the hits will come more often.

Once they do get on base, let’s hope that Sam Perlozzo is 10 percent as good with the stopwatch as Davey Lopes was, but that, my friends, is a subject for another time.

Please, as always, share your opinions on this one.  I’d love to hear them.  Thanks for reading!

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Philadelphia Phillies Close to Extension with Master Assembler Ruben Amaro Jr.

Just a day after the Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a contract extension with the manager that has led them to four consecutive National League East pennants, the team has agreed in principle to sign its general manager, Ruben Amaro Jr., to a contract extension.

First reported by Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, the parameters of the extension aren’t clear at the moment. At the very least, the deal is expected to have a minimum of two years—the same guaranteed years to Charlie Manuel—and with Amaro just 46 years old, could extend well beyond that.

As with many general managers, Amaro’s tenure in Philadelphia has been spotted with good and bad deals. After taking over for Pat Gillick following the Phillies’ 2008 championship run, Amaro was faced with the task of introducing young talent to an aging team, while still putting a championship-caliber team on the field. With that in mind, Amaro has made a flurry of trades and signings.

Before the 2009 season, Amaro’s first difficult decision revolved around letting declining outfielder and fan favorite Pat Burrell walk via free agency. Not so long after that, Amaro replaced him with former Seattle Mariners left fielder Raul Ibanez, signing him to a three-year, $31.5 million contract.

As his first free-agent signing, the deal was criticized harshly. Many fans and analysts alike believed that the deal, which guaranteed three years to a 36-year-old outfielder, was an overpay in all aspects of the contract. Though Ibanez quieted the critics for a while with a tremendous first half, he proved them right by slumping through his contract ever since.

In much of the same fashion, he was criticized for offering the oldest pitcher in baseball, Jamie Moyer, a multi-year contract that paid him more than $6 million a season. Though he was a quality pitcher for the Phillies in that span of time, Amaro began showing a troubling trend of offering unnecessary contract years.

Not every deal was a bad one in his first offseason as the Phillies general manager, however. He locked up a couple of integral parts of the Phillies World Series run, agreeing to contract extensions with slugging first baseman Ryan Howard and World Series MVP Cole Hamels. At $54 million and $20.5 million respectively, these deals were received in a much gentler light.

In his first trade as the Phillies general manager, Amaro swapped a pair of five-tool outfielders, when he sent Greg Golson to the Texas Rangers for power-threat John Mayberry Jr. While the latter has yet to reach his potential, the deal was favored in Philadelphia, as many had soured on Golson’s ability.

None of those deals really put Amaro’s name on the map, however. That would be done during the season. After months of speculation on the Phillies interest in Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, Amaro pulled off a surprise move at the trade deadline, when he sent four talented prospects to the Cleveland Indians for their ace, Cliff Lee, and fourth outfielder Ben Francisco.

Of course, that would just be the beginning of the Lee drama.

He wasn’t finished bolstering the Phillies rotation that season, however. After spending the first half of the season out of baseball, Amaro agreed to sign former Cy Young Award winner Pedro Martinez to a deal that guaranteed him through the end of the 2009 season. Martinez proved to be a lift for the Phillies, and he and Lee helped lead the Phillies back to the World Series, though they couldn’t bring the trophy back to Philadelphia.

The offseason that followed would put Amaro on the map in Philadelphia—whether it was good or bad was yet to be determined. After months of pursuit, the Phillies finally landed Halladay, but the cost—Cliff Lee—was almost too much for some fans to bear. Amaro would send top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and two others to the Blue Jays, and in an effort to restock his own farm system, send Lee to Seattle for three prospects, all of who would underachieve in their first season in the Phillies organization.

He would sign Halladay to a very team-friendly extension, in regards to one of the best pitchers in baseball, inking him to a three-year, $60 million extension with an option. Despite that, trading Lee, a new fan favorite, was a tough decision and Amaro fell out of favor with many Phillies fans.

Though it was the offseason’s blockbuster, it was only one of a few moves for Amaro. He continued his disturbing trend of offering too many guaranteed years for veteran free agents, retooling the bench and bullpen by signing Ross Gload, Brian Schnieder and Danys Baez to two-year contracts, and adding utility man Juan Castro and starter-turned-reliever Jose Contreras to major league deals as well. The most productive free-agent signing of the offseason was Placido Polanco, who took his Gold Glove defense at second base and showed that third base was no problem at all.

The most underrated move of that offseason was probably in the form of Wilson Valdez, who Amaro had signed to a minor league deal as depth. When Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley would go down with injuries, Valdez would prove to be an integral part of the team.  

Despite being happy with the structure of his team, come the trade deadline, injuries had set in and Amaro felt the need to make a move to shake the Phillies up a bit. He continued one of his better trends—acquiring aces—by sending J.A. Happ and two prospects to the Houston Astros for Roy Oswalt and $11 million.

With three aces on his staff, the Phillies fans began to rally behind Amaro after a disappointing end to the 2010 season. Entering his third offseason as the Phillies general manager, he had one true task to solve now—who plays right field?

Jayson Werth, who had managed to stay healthy and put together another tremendous season, had become a free agent, and the Phillies needed to figure out who would be playing right field come Opening Day 2011. Was top prospect Domonic Brown ready? Could they give Ben Francisco a shot? As it turns out, the Washington Nationals would make that decision easy by signing Werth to a mega-deal the Phillies couldn’t begin to match.

With their right field situation being solved by default, Amaro would go on to stun the baseball world and bring yet another ace, Lee, back to Philadelphia, assembling the kind of rotation that comes around in baseball only once in a while.

And that, of course, is where the Phillies team stands today. Despite having “four aces,” Amaro’s work is still cut out for him. With mounting injury concerns, will he have to make a move to reinforce the Phillies infield? This offseason holds an even darker outlook, as he’ll have to negotiate deals with Ryan Madson, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins, as well as make tough decisions on the likes of Brad Lidge and Raul Ibanez.

Fear not though, Philadelphia. The Phillies are in good hands. Or are they?

Though it’s hard to argue that Amaro has done a bad job during his tenure in Philadelphia, as the Phillies have done nothing but win, the team is still without a World Series ring under his reign. He’s shown that troubling trend of offering too many guaranteed years, and his extension of Ryan Howard is easily one of the most lopsided contracts in baseball.

On the other hand, the Phillies have a lot to look forward to under his reign. He’s shown that he is a shrewd negotiator and has drafted well, leading the Phillies to one of the most talented, young farm systems in baseball.

Some of his moves may be difficult to understand, but with an ever-expanding payroll and talented young farm system, the Phillies are more than sure that Ruben Amaro Jr. is the right guy for the job moving forward.

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MLB Spring Training Files: Five Burning Questions for the Philadelphia Phillies

Hot on the heels of the Cliff Lee acquisition, the Philadelphia Phillies entered spring training as favorites to reclaim the National League crown. With Lee joining Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, and Joe Blanton, the Phillies should have the rotation locked down.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, the team isn’t without questions as it prepares for the regular season. Turnover in the bullpen, spring training injuries, and the loss of key players and coaches during the offseason has left the team with several potential headaches to sort out.

The better the Phillies do at sorting out these five key issues now, the easier that long-projected path to the World Series will be.

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Charlie Manuel and Philadelphia Phillies Sign 2-Year Extension

The Philadelphia Phillies announced earlier today that they have inked manager Charlie Manuel to a two-year contract extension that will keep him at the helm through the 2013 season.

While the exact terms have not been released, both mlb.com and phillynews.com expect Manuel to earn between $7 million and $8 million for the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

Reportedly, the team has also sweetened the payout to Manuel for the 2011 season, the last year remaining on his former contract.

This season will be the seventh for Manuel as Phillies skipper, in which time he has compiled a 544-428 win-loss record in the regular season.

More importantly, the Phillies have won the National League East the last four seasons, advancing to two World Series and becoming World Champions in 2008.

As a reward for his success, it is reported that Manuel’s new contract will pay him as a top five Major League manager.

It would appear that most Phillies fans would applaud the move that will see their manager hold the reins through his 69th birthday. The franchise and the manager will have a chance to reassess his future during the next three years, but without the cloud that would hang over Manuel if he were managing as a lame duck.

It would be an understatement to say that the Phillies—despite some recent uncertainty over the health of star second baseman Chase Utley—are built to win right now.

Having the services of a manager who has taken them to the top of the mountain for at least three more years seems to be a sound decision, baseball-wise and business-wise.

 

Manuel’s Transformation and Journey

While no public figure, in sports or out of sports, is universally liked, Charlie Manuel has become one of the more popular sports figures in Philadelphia during his six years in town.

However, it wasn’t always that easy for him to win over Philly’s demanding, outspoken fanbase.

Manuel started his current job in South Philly in 2005, taking over for franchise hero Larry Bowa, who was still popular with much of Phillies Nation. Popular as Bowa was with his fans, the fiery former shortstop had a bellicose manner that tended to alienate most of his players.

His teams also tended to finish in second place (if not third) in the NL East behind the perennial champion Atlanta Braves. Of course, Charlie promptly started out with two second-place finishes, piloting the clubs to be just good enough to not qualify for the postseason. Hard as it is to even contemplate now, the Phillies did not qualify for the postseason between 1993 and 2006.

With his redneck, southern drawl and penchant for sounding like a rube in postgame press conferences, the moniker Uncle Cholly was not uttered in an endearing fashion.

Although Manuel had  a little success in his two-and-a-half years managing the Cleveland Indians (winning one AL Central title), he was regarded by many as a glorified hitting coach who could not even master the NL art of the double switch.

His perception started to change in 2007, when the Phillies staged a furious comeback to wrest the division from the favored New York Mets. In retrospect, it was a combination of a Big Apple collapse and a South Philly hot streak that got the job done.

By the time, the Phillies took the baseball world by storm and became—in the words of immortal broadcaster Harry Kalas—world champions of baseball in 2008, Manuel had improbably won over the hearts of most of Phillies Nation.

The inept, poor communicator became lovable and truly avuncular. Funny how that happens sometimes.

While not considered a master strategist, it was apparent that the team clad in red pinstripes fought to the finish on a nightly basis for Uncle Cholly.

And yes, the moniker Uncle Cholly now connotes a lovable, wise baseball man who loves his team and his fanbase.

For Manuel, his managerial second life mirrored his renewed life as a player. Born on January 4, 1944 in Northfork, West Virginia, Manuel mostly collected splinters (and only 384 at-bats over six seasons) as a left fielder for the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers. Manuel packed up his career .198 batting average and two homers and headed to Japan.

From 1977 through 1981, Manuel terrorized Japanese baseball, becoming a .300-plus hitter who belted close to 40 homers a year for the Yakult and Kintetsu franchises.

After returning to the States, he paid 17 years of dues as a scout, hitting coach or minor league manager before the Indians gave him a shot to manage the parent club in 2000.

The rest is the history that most of us have witnessed.

The man with the Southern drawl and the ability to speak Japanese is now beloved by most Philadelphians.

If Manuel helps to usher in another parade or two in the next few years, Uncle Cholly just might become a bonafide legend.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and public appearances, please e-mail matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Chase Utley Is Hurt, but Philadelphia Phillies Fans Need To Stop Freaking Out

About a month ago, an enormous percentage of the Philadelphia Phillies faithful were making bold proclamations about World Series appearances and World Series wins.

With the semblance of an amazing starting pitching staff, there was not much reason to think anyone was being completely unrealistic. 

Optimistic?  Perhaps. 

Completely unrealistic?  No.

All of a sudden, the team has one spring training injury, and everyone hits the proverbial panic button.

Yes, it is Chase Utley, and yes, Chase Utley is one of—if not the—best players on the team. 

Let us try to remember, however, that this team has got some other pretty good players, like Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz, etc. 

The Phillies also still have those four guys at the top of their rotation.

Please do not take this the wrong way: Utley is an amazing player, and a presence in the lineup that is not easily replaced—if replacement is possible at all.

But here’s my question: Why even try?

I’ve been hearing for days that the Phillies should pick up Michael Young, who is, admittedly, a really strong player and a very good right-handed bat.  

I know how Philadelphia fans are, and thus, I let it go—until today.

Earlier today, I heard on a Philadelphia sports-radio show (the epitome of sports-fan “mental midgetry”) that, and I quote, “The Phillies should trade Roy Oswalt for Michael Young.”

Are you serious?  We do not even know the extent of Utley’s knee problems (not yet, anyway). 

It is this panic that forces hands into very bad moves.  Thank goodness Ruben Amaro Jr. is not quite so rash.

What happens if you trade one of your four aces for Young?

You’ve got a stopgap who is still a borderline All-Star, but you’re down one pitcher from what had been your biggest strength.

Now, what happens if Utley returns by mid-May or earlier?  I’m certain the Phillies would have no problem finding at-bats for Michael Young, but again, would the move be—in retrospect—a good idea?

Of course, it could go the other way. 

Oswalt’s sometimes balky back could go awry, and he could miss two-thirds of the season, and Utley could not come back at all.

The point I’m trying to make is that the team will cross that bridge immediately before it burns, and so to all the fans out there coming up with these hasty ideas—please chill out!

I understand that it’s something to talk about. 

I also understand that Utley is not your everyday player, and that his importance to the team should never be underestimated.  I also understand that he deserves every chance in the world to right the ship that is his own body. 

I personally believe that he will. 

I’d love to hear your take on this subject, Phillies fans.  If you think that I’m the one who is off his rocker, please, by all means, tell me.  I can handle it! 

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Chase Utley Injury: If Surgery Is Required, NL East Belongs to Atlanta

On December 15th, 2010, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Cliff Lee and in the minds of baseball enthusiasts all around the world, Lee’s signature was the kiss of death for the division rival Atlanta Braves.

However, a lot has changed since December 15th—most importantly, Chase Utley‘s knee.

Before Braves fans gallop triumphantly into a busy street, toss confetti into the air and order their “Atlanta Braves: NL East Champions” t-shirt on eBay, they must wait and hear whether or not the heart and soul of Philadelphia will require surgery.

The bad news? Nobody knows the answer to that question.

Nobody.

Let’s pretend for a second that Utley will require surgery and misses, say, 10 weeks. How would that affect the National League East?

Utley missed significant time last year—he finished with only 115 games—and the Phillies obviously suffered from not having their No. 3 hitter. However, Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard were able to carry the lost weight in the lineup and Philly was able to score just enough runs to win the division.

Now Jayson is sipping lattes in D.C, playing for a last place team and making bank, while big man Howard sits at home, wondering how he is going to produce all the runs in 2011.

Sure, the Phillies have some firepower left in the arsenal with Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino (no, not Jimmy Rollins) but if you take a closer look, that isn’t really firepower—more like a few old BB Guns and one big bazooka that jams at the wrong time.

Polanco is pushing 36 and posted stats well below his career average in just about every offensive category. Sure, he’s a class act and a sure thing in the field, but Polanco is famous for his injury plagued seasons and can not be relied heavily on.

Ruiz, arguably the MVP of the Phillies in 2010, had a career year last year. However, the catcher has never played more than 121 games, so it remains to be seen what Ruiz can do with the bat while being behind the plate for a full season.

Ibanez is almost 39 years old and is obviously on a decline in his career. The vet will provide a decent bat at times, but his age has to catch up with him some time.

Victorino is really, really fast and a really, really, great defender. Offensively, there isn’t much to say. In 2010, the Flyin’ Hawaiian’s BA, OBP, OPS, SLG and hits all decreased dramatically while his strikeout totals increased.

Victorino is an average hitter at best.

Ryan Howard is a paradox. Howard goes from hitting 45 home runs and driving in 141 in 2009, to posting Corey Hart numbers in 2010—31 homers and 108 RBIs. Obviously, Howard is still one of the best hitters in the game, but Phillies fans have to be at least a little bit worried about the “slugger’s” decline.

Maybe 2010 was just an off year or maybe it was a preview of what the rest of Howard’s career will look like—only time will tell. No matter what the case, Howard can not score all the runs for this team.

Fun fact: Every player I just mentioned will be above the age of 31 by season’s end.

If Utley does miss significant time this season, his replacement will be Wilson Valdez. 

I imagine everyone in Philly cringing when they read that sentence, so I’ll say it again: If Utley does miss significant time this season, his replacement will be Wilson Valdez. 

Let’s just say that Valdez, a career .240 hitter, is not the right-handed force the Phillies need in their lineup and unless Amaro Jr. goes out and signs David Eckstein or trades for Michael Young, the absence of Utley will greatly diminish all the high hopes that began on December 15th, 2010.

The Atlanta Braves’ offense was already better than Philly’s before Utley and “phenom,” Domonic Brown got banged up. Atlanta’s offense is young, powerful and deep and no matter what happens to Chase, they will score the most runs in the division, but a scalpel in Utley’s flesh will be the icing on the cake for the Braves.

No matter how many aces there are on a pitching staff, offense is equally—if not more—important than the depth of the rotation and a Phillies offense without Utley just doesn’t cut it.

Pun intended.

Don’t get me wrong: Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt will win a good amount of games for Philly in 2010, but as I look into this magical crystal ball of mine, I see a lot of no decisions in their futures.

The future of the NL East—and probably all of baseball—relies on those lucky doctors giving Utley their “second opinion.”

Bad news Philly fans: It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Notable Prospect Performances So Far This Spring

Spring training is officially in full swing.

Full swing brings a different meaning to different players, however. While grizzled veterans like Roy Halladay are working on simply getting their work in and a feel for their pitches, young players are doing battle in order to solidify their spots on the organizational depth chart. Halladay’s job isn’t in any jeopardy, but for some of the young talent in the Philadelphia Phillies’ system, it’s now or never.

So with that in mind, there has been no shortage of “notable” prospect performances this spring, but what exactly do I mean by that? While “notable” brings the connotation that a player has had a good spring, the word notable simply means that, in this sense, the player’s performance is worthy of noting.

So be prepared for the good, the bad and the ugly as you take a look at 10 notable prospect performances this spring. There will be no shortage of any of the above.

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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 79: Has Phillies’ Roy Oswalt Returned To Ace Form?

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

The 2008 and 2009 seasons suggested Roy Oswalt’s ace status had been stripped after proving to be the best pitcher in baseball not named Pedro or Johan from 2002 to 2007, posting a 7.26 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 3.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 212 innings per year.

That being said, Oswalt did dominate the first half of 2010 in Houston, to the tune of a 3.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

He was traded to the Phillies in late July and stepped his game up even further while continuing to show why he’s the best second-half pitcher in baseball. In 12 starts (82 2/3 innings) with Philadelphia, Oswalt posted a ridiculous 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 7.95 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9.

So, is that it? Should Oswalt be drafted as an elite starter in 2011?

Not quite.

Oswalt’s FIP (3.27) and xFIP (3.45) were slightly elevated in comparison to his season ERA of 2.76, but not enough to suggest he’ll implode in 2011; his career-low .253 BABIP, however, likely aided his performance.

A slight regression is likely on the cards for Oswalt this season, though his 2009 campaign (4.12 ERA, 3.13 career) was clearly an outlier.

Oswalt’s four-pitch arsenal was as good as it’s ever been last season, likely benefiting from the presence of teammates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee:

• Fastball: 55.4 percent, 17.6 runs above average
• Slider: 14.8 percent, 5.7 runs above average
• Curveball: 14.7 percent, 7.3 runs above average
• Changeup: 15.1 percent, 7.1 runs above average

Don’t expect a strikeout rate above eight again, but his exceptional walk rate should help keep his WHIP under 1.20, while his ERA should settle in around 3.35.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	211.2	13	8.21	2.34	2.76	1.03
3-year average	200.2	13	7.42	2.15	3.44	1.18
2011 FBI Forecast	208	15	7.50	2.20	3.35	1.17

 

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• No. 71: Francisco Liriano
• No. 72: Tommy Hanson
• No. 73: Brian Roberts
• No. 74: Shane Victorino
• No. 75: Michael Young
• No. 76: Casey McGehee
• No. 77: Aramis Ramirez
• No. 78: Matt Cain

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: If It’s Surgery for Chase Utley, Go Get David Eckstein

The Phillies‘ march to the World Series hit a little bump in the road this week, as the team announced that second baseman Chase Utley is suffering from patellar tendinitis, chondromalacia and bone inflammation in his knee.

Utley received a cortisone injection, which had no effect and surgery is becoming a more realistic possibility with each passing day.

Utley has come back from numerous physical issues ahead of schedule in the past, including tendinitis in his knee, but even Utley himself admits he can’t play through this one and he has yet to appear in a spring training game.  

“I think at this point, we’re not trying to find the easy way out,” he said.

“I’m trying to look at this in the big picture, and that’s the frustrating part, because I think everyone that knows me best knows that the only place I’d rather be is on the field. So it is disappointing. But right now it’s probably not in my best interests to be out there.”

The Phillies are taking it easy with Utley, exploring every possible course of treatment, while not ruling him out for Opening Day. But if knee surgery is the likely outcome, which could sideline Utley for four to six weeks, why not go under the knife now with the start of the season three weeks away?

That’s up to Utley and Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., but for now, they’ll continue to explore every “non-operative” option.

But if the Phillies do lose Utley for an extended period of time, who will take his place at second base?

As far as in-house candidates go, Wilson Valdez is currently listed at No. 2 on the Phillies’ depth chart at second base. Valdez is having an excellent spring, batting .476 with a home run and an RBI in 21 at-bats.

Valdez, 32, appeared in 111 games for the Phillies last season and batted just .258 with four home runs. For the short term, Valdez isn’t a bad option, but if he’s forced into full-time duty, he gets exposed.

The Phillies had explored a trade for DH Michael Young, but while the their payroll pushes $160 million, it’s unlikely they’d be willing to take on Young’s salary. However, a trade package centered around Joe Blanton would probably get Young to Philly.

That scenario is probably a bit of overkill though.

The best and, quite frankly, most obvious option would be to go out and get David Eckstein, who is still floating amongst the offseason refuse.

Last season for the San Diego Padres, Eckstein batted .267 with a .321 on-base percentage in 116 games. A perfect example of a “gamer,” Eckstein fits perfectly into the Phillies hard-nosed style of play.

He doesn’t hit for power at all (just one home run last season), but he puts the bat on the ball (92.2 contact percentage in 2010) and he does well with runners in scoring position (.276 last season, .292 with RISP, two out).

Not to mention his defense is excellent, even at age 36. Eckstein didn’t commit a single error in 107 games at second base last season.

Having made just $1 million last season, Eckstein can be had on the cheap and serve as an excellent replacement for Utley, should he miss significant time this season.

For now though, Chase Utley is still the Phillies’ second baseman and they still have time to figure out the best course of action to handle his injury.

One thing is for sure, the Philly offense can’t afford to have Utley go down without a suitable replacement, and they may want to start looking at their options now.

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