MLB Predictions 2011: Ranking All 30 Teams’ Chances To Win the World Series

The time for questions is over. Throughout the offseason, that’s all we did. Can this team do this? Will that team be able to do that? With each team having completed its opening series, we can get a pretty good idea of what the season will hold for each major league team. Of course, there will always be questions. Can the Philadelphia Phillies continue putting runs on the board, sans Chase Utley and Jayson Werth? Will the Boston Red Sox pitching staff rebound?

In time, those questions will be answered. However, we’re an impatient people. We can’t wait that long. For that reason alone, let’s look forward. In this slideshow, I’ll be ranking every team in baseball’s chances of capturing a World Series title this season. Will an obvious favorite, like the Phillies or Red Sox, come out on top, or will a dark horse surprise the baseball community?

Let’s set some parameters here.

These rankings aren’t going to be the same as the Power Rankings that I released a few weeks ago. In those rankings, I took a look at every team on paper and determined its positioning among its peers. These rankings will be a bit different.

Winning a World Series isn’t a simple task. There are a lot of roadblocks and challenges throughout the regular season. For example, the road to October is stacked heavily against the Red Sox, who’ll need to take care of the New York Yankees, resurgent Baltimore Orioles and pesky teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays if they even want to make it to the postseason. On the other hand, the Phillies play in a considerably weaker division. Their road may be a bit more simplistic.

In short, a team’s chances of winning a World Series have no direct relationship with how good it is. There are a lot of factors teams must deal with before even making it to the postseason, and that in the long run, could determine their October fates.

So without further ado, let’s begin. Each slide will feature a percentage of the team’s chances of making the playoffs, followed by a brief description of its spot in the ranking.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Versatile Prospects in the Farm System

When you look at today’s game, being able to play multiple positions is important.  Look at a guy like Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays.  He can play seven positions.

With versatility, it makes it easier for the manager to shake things up, and make in-game substitutions.  When someone gets hurt, these are guys that you can plug in.

One of the main reasons why Michael Martinez made the team is because of his ability to play the outfield and infield.  He played center field on Sunday in place of Victorino, but he’ll also see time at second base. 

The same goes for Wilson Valdez.  He can play the outfield and infield as well. 

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Ryan Howard and Bullpen Key Philadelphia Phillies 10-7 Win Over Mets

A red-hot cleanup hitter and a clutch bullpen performance led the host Phillies past the feisty New York Mets 10-7. With the victory, the home team held onto first place in the very early stages of the 2011 pennant race.

With the temperature holding around 50 degrees, both the climate and the final score more resembled a defensive battle in the National Football League. Of course, it was a cool evening for baseball and an unexpected April slugfest.

Baseball is a game of clichés, and this contest between the NL East rivals put some of these diamond truisms under the microscope.

Cliché No. 1:

In April, the pitchers are ahead of the hitters.

Not tonight. The two teams combined for 28 hits off two quality starting pitchers; 16 of the 17 total runs were earned.

Cliché No. 2:

When a team does not cash in on an early (and easy) scoring opportunity, that lost opportunity will come back to haunt it.

Yes and no. Jose Reyes opened the game with a bunt single and advanced to third on catcher Brian Schneider’s throwing error. Man on third, nobody out; the probability of scoring at least one run figures to be at least 95 percent. Any statisticians in the house?

Not tonight. Starter Joe Blanton proceeded to wriggle out of the jam, punching out both Willie Harris (swinging) and David Wright (looking) and inducing a fly out from Carlos Beltran.

As often happens when the pitcher picks up the whole team, the Phils offense paid him back, starting with a leadoff triple from Shane Victorino. In no time, the home team was up 2-0, which they extended to 7-0 after three. The Mets were cooked, right?

Not exactly. Angel Pagan got two runs back for the Mets in the top of the forth with a bomb, and the Mets exploded for five runs in the top of the fifth to knot the game at a touchdown apiece.

If you recall, Tuesday evening’s starter Cole Hamels also got out of a big jam in the top of the first, and looked just fine after two. Then, he gave up a six-spot to the Mets in the third. Ouch!

Cliché No. 3:

When you’re pitching with a big lead, throw strikes. The worst thing you can do is to give free passes to the trailing team.

In his four-plus innings of work, Blanton had decent, if not great, control. He whiffed six batters, against two walks, and hit one batter.

For the most part, Blanton’s problem was that he was getting far too many pitches up in the zone.

Protecting a 7-2 lead (well, trying to protect a 7-2 lead) with one and out and nobody on in the top of the fifth, Blanton suddenly became very hittable.

In succession, he yielded a double, a walk, three consecutive singles, a double and another walk. Before you could say Antonio Bastardo, the Mets had whittled the lead to a single run with the bases loaded. The walks hurt; the belt-high fastballs and hangers almost killed.

Cliché No. 4:

A win in April is just as good as a win in September.

This is mathematically irrefutable, even if the spirit of it can be questioned.

Obviously, all W’s are created equal in the standings and a win against a division rival is even more important than one against the Astros, for a recent example. By June or so, the details of this game will be forgotten by most people with normal memories, and the fact that the Phillies won and the Mets (who may or may not be an afterthought come September) lost is all that counts.

As for the spirit of this cliché, if it were a choice between winning this game in September or April, I’d rather take it in September. Of course, this kind of win in April could also help a team win this kind of rollercoaster affair during the stretch drive.

In regard to the very early season stats, it’s very hard to project after just one time around the five-man rotation.

But, let’s do the math anyway. If the Phillies’ season continues exactly like this:

They will win 130 games, and lose 32.

They will do this without Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton or Cole Hamels winning any, although “Doc” will post an incredible 1.50 earned run average.

Placido Polanco will hit .450 (Teddy Who?) with 130 RBI and 194 runs scored.

Ben Francisco (Jayson Who?) will hit .333 with 65 homers, 162 RBI and 194 runs.

Ryan Howard (Albert Who?) will match Francisco’s 65 dingers, and do so with a .525 batting average, 259 RBI and 162 runs.

Which brings us to…

(Phillies) Cliché No. 5:

Howard does not hit well in the cold weather months, and may really struggle without the protection afforded by No. hitter Chase Utley and No. 5 hitter Jayson Werth.

Yes, and the Earth is flat, and Butler shoots extremely well in NCAA title games.

Of course, over time, the absence of Utley (for however long) and Werth may mean fewer good pitches for the big first basemen to hit. Right now, the man is crushing almost everything offered.

Most power hitters are streaky, and Howard is no exception. Still, Phillies fans have to be most pleasantly surprised and elated to see the biggest cog in their lineup start the season like this.

(Phillies) Cliché No. 6:

The starting rotation is untouchable, but the bullpen is suspect.

So far, Halladay, Lee and Oswalt all pitched quite well, while Hamels and Blanton were terrible.

In the bullpen, Antonio Bastardo gave up only one hit and struck out two in 1.2 crucial innings of work to get the win. J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras collaborated on three shutout innings, yielding only one hit and one walk.

Which brings us back to Cliché No. 3. Bastardo, who relieved Blanton during that wild Mets fifth, threw 17 of his 20 pitches for strikes. That worked out pretty well for him.

In the final analysis, a cliché or two held true and several others were ripped apart during a wild ballgame that saw the Phillies up their record to 4-1.

It was just one of about 90 or so victories they will need to qualify for the postseason.

After all, whether they win 2-1 (as most pundits projected as the norm for this season) or 10-7, a win is a win is a win—whether played in 50 degrees or 90.

And yes, I am fresh out of clichés.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Cole Hamels: Did Last Night’s Start Make Him Trade Bait for This Season?

After getting three straight aces, the Philadelphia Phillies flopped a joker last night, as Cole Hamels was pounded by the New York Mets last night in Citizen’s Bank Park.

The Mets tagged Hamels for six runs on seven hits and chased him after just 2 2/3 innings. Hamels fell to 2-9 in 14 career starts against the Mets.

Much has been made of the Phillies’ “Phab Phour” heading into this season and rightfully so.

A rotation of Roy Hallday, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels certainly brings with it high expectations. But with those expectations comes the risk of disappointment, which the Philly Phaithful tasted last night.

As Hamels walked off the mound, he was booed viciously by the 127th consecutive sell out crowd.

Today, the word being used to describe Hamels isn’t “ace,” but rather “inconsistent.”

Could Hamels also be described as trade bait?

Hamels entered this season in the final year of the three-year, $20.5 million contract he signed in January 2009. Last offseason, the market for starting pitching was barren. The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers each found themselves competing for the services of Cliff Lee.

Higher and higher the money went, each team trying to find that golden ticket that would land Lee. The Rangers tried to appease the lefty with visits to his home in Arkansas, while the Yankees did as they always do and kept adding zeros to their checks.

But in the end, it was the chance to join Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels in Philadelphia that won the Phillies Lee, creating the so-called “Phab Phour.”

But the great offseason the Phillies had also came with a price. They lost a right-handed bat, Jayson Werth, to the Washington Nationals. Top prospect Dominic Brown was expected to win the right field job, but a broken hand in spring training landed him on the DL.

Throw in an injury to second baseman Chase Utley, who still shows no signs of returning, and the Phillies find themselves in a tough spot.

They don’t have the farm system to fill these holes at the major league level, having dumped their farm system to land Halladay and Oswalt, and they don’t have the money to sign any useful free agents or take on the contract of a guy like Michael Young.

Despite a 3-1 start to the season and a tie for first place in the NL East, the Phillies are not without their weaknesses.

On the occasions when their starting pitching doesn’t come through, as it didn’t last night and partially in their season opener with Halladay on the mound, their bullpen isn’t a strength.

Closer Brad Lidge is on the DL and Ryan Madson is better suited to pitch the eighth inning than the ninth. With that in mind, the blueprint to beat the Phillies should be chase their starter early, as the Mets did last night, and get into their bullpen.

Or keep the game close and make it a bullpen battle, a battle which a team like the Atlanta Braves would love to have.

Additionally, though the loss of Utley actually allows the Phillies to work another right-handed bat into their lineup, they’d rather have Utley back. If that happens, they’ll be more vulnerable to left-handed pitching than they already are.

So in order to fortify their weaknesses, the Phillies should draw from their strengths. Namely the starting rotation and specifically Cole Hamels.

As thin as the last offseason was for starting pitching, it’s even worse next year. C.J. Wilson, Joel Piniero and Mark Buehrle are the biggest names available, and there are going to be plenty of teams fighting over them, and someone is going to be left out in the cold.

Hamels is in need of a new contract, and his inconsistency over the last few seasons leaves his value in doubt. A bad season would make bringing him back a tough decision for the Phillies, while a great season could price them out.

Is Hamels worth the five-year, $120 million contract the Phillies gave Lee?

Hamels is just 27 years old and already has six years of big league experience. He’s won a World Series and a World Series MVP. A five-year contract would take him to age 32, still within the prime years for a lefty.

And though the Phillies have the expiring contracts of Raul Ibanez and Jimmy Rollins to look forward to, and they may not pick up the options on Lidge or Oswalt, they also have big raises coming to Lee and Ryan Howard.

In 2012, the Phillies will have nine players guaranteed $110.5 million, not including a contract for Hamels, or the $16 million mutual option for Oswalt or the $12.5 million team option for Lidge.

Throw in the state of their farm system and the Phillies may have a hard time filling every spot to their liking.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. will have to chose between taking on a massive payroll full of aging players or allow Oswalt, Lidge, Rollins and Ibanez to become free agents, leaving their roster in shambles.

Trading Hamels midseason might seem like a big risk, but he would fetch a hetfy price and land the Phillies some much-needed prospects.

A team like the Yankees would drool over a chance to land Hamels. The Yankees have several top pitching prospects in their organization, and Hamels would land the Phillies any one of them. Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances and Adrew Brackman are all close to major league ready and all looked impressive in spring training for the Yankees.

Having one of those three to slot into the Phillies rotation for 2012 would not only give the Phillies a great starting pitcher at a low cost, but infuse some youth into a rotation that already has four pitchers over the age of 30.

In any trade for Hamels, the Phillies should target right-handed prospects of either the infield or outfield variety, or both ideally.

Dealing Hamels would be a very difficult decision and doing so would probably be met with outrage from the Philly fans. But they already seemed pretty outraged as they booed and jeered Hamels last night.

Trading one strength to improve multiple weaknesses could be the right long-term decision for the Phillies.

 

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MLB Trade Rumors: 10 Deadline Targets to Bolster Philadelphia Phillies’ Offense

With Chase Utley’s future in doubt for the rest of the season, The Philadelphia Phillies are going to have to make a move at the trade deadline in order to bolster their offense for the postseason run.

So far the Phillies have gotten by with their offense. They have scored 22 runs in the first four games.

A good start by Ben Francisco and Ryan Howard have paced the Phillies. The two combined to knock in 10 of those runs.

In order for the Phillies to remain consistent and contend for another World Series appearance, they are going to have to get another bat in their lineup via trade, especially if Utley is out for an extending period of time.

Here are 10 players who the Phillies could target as we near the deadline.

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Keys to Come on Down and Beat the Mets

The Phillies have an early three game series against the rival Mets starting tonight (Tuesday). The Phillies have gotten off to a scorching hot start (albeit against the lowly Astros) and they look to keep the good times rolling.

The Mets won their first series as well, taking two of three from the Marlins.

This series most definitely means a lot more to Mets fragile psyche than the proven Phillies, but it is still always fun to kick a New York team while they are down right?

As expected, the Phillies have had outstanding starting pitching in their first three games. Their lineup has done their part as well (eh, Brett Myers) and the Phightin’s have again staked their claim that they are the beast of the East and the National League.

Here are the five keys to the Phillies vs. Mets series.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Series Preview: The Rivalry Returns?

If you ask me, the Philadelphia Phillies got off to a pretty good start this weekend at home. Three games. Three wins.

That good start went way beyond simply getting three wins, however, as the team answered several imposing questions that people around the game held against them heading into the season. As Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt toed the hill, people questioned whether or not they would be able to live up to the hype. They responded by walking just one hitter, striking out 23 more and allowing just six earned runs in 19 innings pitched.

Starting the season without Jayson Werth and Chase Utley in the lineup was going to be a problem for the Phils’. The offense looks weak and won’t provide any run support. Those critics were silenced by the likes of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Ben Francisco, who are all off to hot starts, as well as some timely hitting from the bottom of the order and bench.

Three games into the season, the Phillies look like they have something to prove this season, and by all means, they do. The way they played this weekend, it’s hard to believe that they can only get better this season, as I was reminded by a fellow fan this weekend. “We just swept the [Houston] Astros with Wilson Valdez starting at second base, Jose Contreras closing games and some Minor League guy [Michael Martinez, who was starting for Shane Victorino]. It’s only going to get better when Chase [Utley] and Brad [Lidge] come back.”

Indeed, the Phillies had an encouraging series, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, Philadelphia. There are 159 games left to play, and as last season proved, anything can happen. Let’s take this thing one game (or series, in this case) at a time. After all, the New York Mets are coming to town.

The Mets’ struggles off the field were well documented this winter, but the lineup they’ll field poses more of a challenge than the one the Astros boasted this weekend. With the Mets struggles last season, the rivalry with the Phillies sort of died out, but a healthy Mets team and a Phils’ team high off of a sweep to start the season would like nothing more than to renew a once bitter rivalry.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Ben Francisco Will Be the 2011 Team MVP

With the conclusion of the first weekend, Phillies fans have already learned a lot about the upcoming season. Already the rotation was known to be a sure thing. 19 innings were pitched by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt while only allowing a collective 14 hits, six runs, one walk and 23 strikeouts.

Also, production needed from fill-in players on this team was taken away from this weekend. The production of Wilson Valdez, who provided two RBI this weekend in the absence of Chase Utley, will be vital to this team. John Mayberry, who contributed the game-winning RBI single in the first game this season, will be a very important bench player to this team.

But the most important player on the Phillies this season is not Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino or any other star on this team. It is the quiet right fielder who has been a bench player his whole career, Ben Francisco. Francisco is filling some big shoes, of Jayson Werth who was lost to the Nationals in free agency this offseason. In the first three games this season, Francisco had 13 AB, hitting .462 with 1 HR and 4 RBI.

In spring training, Francisco blew away Charlie Manuel and the rest of the Phillies organization with a huge performance. He hit .361 with 5 HR and 14 RBI this spring, and had an astounding .667 slugging percentage.  In order to be successful, the Phillies need to give their star pitchers run support. Francisco can contribute valuable RBI and HR hitting behind Ryan Howard against lefties. 

With this being said, Ben Francisco has a very good chance of putting up great numbers this season. Many experts have predicted a 20-25 HR and 75-80 RBI season for Francisco. He has decent speed, good power, and is good in the field. But most importantly Francisco has the right attitude needed for a Philadelphia sports player. The Phantastic phour, Fab Four, or whatever the Phillies starters are called have gotten all the media attention along with Howard, Rollins and Utley. But it is Ben Francisco who will have the biggest impact on the team this season.

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NL East: Obviously, the Atlanta Braves Take the Division from Philadelphia

It’s so obvious. I don’t know how all the phans in Philadelphia are missing it. 

The Braves are clearly the team to beat in the NL East. They have it all: pitching, power, superior defense, awesome bench. Everything’s there. 

Yet those phans, and most of the national media, just can’t see it.

You wanna talk pitching? Add one part Derek Lowe, one part Tommy Hanson, a handful of Tim Hudson and a pinch of Brandon Beachy (???) and you got a championship rotation, right? 

I mean, come on. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are schlubs compared to Lowe and Hanson.  And Roy Oswalt is no Tim Hudson, not even on his best day. Cole Hamels??? What has that guy ever done? 

I mean, besides that World Series MVP thing, he’s a really poor pitcher. Good ole “Double-B” Brandon Beachy makes Hamels look like a Little Leaguer. 

So, you can see when they’re lined up against one another which one the blatantly, obviously better rotation is.

Pitching isn’t the only aspect where the Bravos trump the Phils. Offensively, they are a far superior team as well. 

Just look at each team’s big power hitter: Dan Uggla versus Ryan Howard. I don’t care that Howard was the fastest player in the history of the game to hit 300 home runs. Uggla is better. 

Also, the Braves have Chipper Jones, who is just in the prime of his career. Jimmy Rollins is old. He’s five years younger than Chipper Jones, but he is still old and Chipper is not. 

And Jason Heyward is definitely the next Willie Mays. They even have the same nickname, which Heyward definitely earned, so it has to be true. 

Even though the Braves lineup has never really accomplished anything, they are far and away better than anything the Phils have.

I’m gonna come right out and say it: The Braves are the best defensive team in all of baseball, maybe even in the history of baseball. How can the Phillies compete with that? 

I’m surprised the entire team didn’t win all the Gold Gloves last year. In both leagues. 

Brooks Conrad has the hands of an angel, and there’s no way he could ever, EVER make an error. Forget last year when the Braves were 26th in the majors (out of 30) and the Phillies were eighth; this year will be different and defense will be one of the reasons the Braves take the division.

Last year didn’t really go our way. We didn’t have any magic finishes at the end of games (the Braves won 21 games in their last at-bat in 2010, leading the Majors), all our major contributors were injured constantly (unlike the Phillies), and we certainly didn’t get any extraordinary performances from our bench (Omar Infante).

But as you can see, this year will be ours. Stats and previous performances never mean a thing in baseball, so why even bother with them? 

It all comes down to which team’s fan base believes in it more. Here in the ATL we show up at every game, cheering and dancing and really just willing it to happen, so it will. 

Talent and experience be damned. This year belongs to the Braves. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Things To Take Away from the Houston Astros Series

After a convincing 7-3 victory yesterday afternoon against Houston, the Phillies solidified a three-game sweep of the Astros.

The Phillies are currently one of four teams who took all three games in their opening series—Texas, Baltimore and Cincinnati being the others.

They outscored Houston 21-11 in the series.

Although we can all agree that the Astros are an inferior opponent, there were a lot of positives to take away from the sweep.

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