Down on the Farm: Philadelphia Phillies April Prospect Review

Using John Sickels’ list for the Philadelphia Phillies‘ top 20 prospects for 2011, I am doing a quick review through the first month of the baseball season.

Following the first 20 are some of his honorable mentions. Followed by that are some unmentioned surprises and notables thus far in 2011.

Top 20:

1. Domonic Brown, OF (Triple-A)
Brown recently started his rehab assignment with  Clearwater, the Phillies’ Class A+ affiliate,  after fracturing his hamate bone in his right hand in spring training.  Brown has looked good in his brief time in Clearwater, posting a .368/.429/1.165 line with 2 homers In 5 games. He was just activated from the disabled list and optioned to Triple-A affiliate, Lehigh Valley. His major league return is sorely needed as Raul Ibanez continues struggling.

2. Jonathan Singleton, 1B (A+)
The young first baseman got promoted to Class A Advanced, Clearwater Threshers after tearing up Class A last year in Lakewood. The transition has had some good signs and bad, which is pretty typical, especially this early in the season. He’s posted a .306/.424/.832 line in 15 games, although it has benefited from a high BABIP (.407 entering his 14th game). He continues to show good discipline, walking 8 times. However, his strikeouts has risen dramatically with 17 on the season.

3. Brody Colvin, SP (A+)
Colvin has spent almost all of the month on the disabled list with a back injury. He only pitched 2 innings, giving up 3 hits, 2 earned runs, and a walk.

4. Jarred Cosart, SP (A+)
Cosart has transitioned well in his promotion to Clearwater from Lakewood. In 28.1 innings, he’s tallied a 3.81 ERA and 3.20 FIP with a respectable 23 strikeouts and 9 walks. His strikeout rate has dipped from last year, but he’s throwing more groundballs as well.

5. Trevor May, SP (A+)
May struggled badly with his control last year in Clearwater, posting a 7.84 BB/9 in 70 innings. It’s improved to 4.85 BB/9 in 26 innings. His strikeout rate remains solid at 9.00 K/9. His 5.54 ERA is not indicative of his season thus far as he’s posted a 3.43 FIP.

6. Jesse Biddle, SP (Single-A)
Biddle has continued his control problems that began last year upon his promotion to the short-season New York – Penn league. He’s still striking out batters with 15 in 16.1 innings, but his 12 walks is cause for concern. His ERA is an atrocious 7.16, while his FIP is an unspectacular 4.36.

7. Sebastian Valle , C (A+)
Valle continues struggling offensively. His strike zone judgment is still lacking, After a 101 to 27 strikeout to walk ratio in 447 at-bats last year, his 16 to 1 mark in 63 at-bats this year does not show improvement. His struggles with the strike zone have produced a .254/.277/.381 line through 17 games.

8. Domingo Santana, OF (Single-A)
Like Valle, Santana struggles with the strike zone. He is picking right up where he left off last year in Lakewood, striking out 26 times while only walking 3 times in 70 at-bats. Through 18 games he is hitting .229/.260/.371.

9. Vance Worley, SP (Triple-A/MLB)
Worley recently got called up to the majors after an injury to Joe Blanton. Even though he did not give up any runs in 6 innings, his 4 walks were unimpressive. He threw 5 strikeouts, but did not get many swinging strikes (2.0 percent). He did well in Triple-A, posting a 2.78 ERA and 3.77 FIP with 25 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. His upside is limited to a 4th or 5th starter.

10. Julio Rodriguez, SP (A+)
Rodriguez has done well for the most part in his first season in Clearwater. 20 strikeouts in 18.2 innings is good to see. However, 9 walks and an inability to induce grounders is concerning. 3.52 FIP and 2.89 ERA are decent as well.

11. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (A+)
Hernandez has gotten off to a bad start moving up to Clearwater after skipping Lakewood this year. A very low .195 BABIP has contributed to an ugly .151/.196/.170 line. He’s also regressed in his walk rate (6.3 percent) and strikeout rate (23.7 percent).

12. Justin De Fratus, RP (Double-A)
De Fratus has struggled early with his command, walking 7 in 11.1 innings, but has racked up 10 strikeouts and has been inducing more ground balls. Without giving up a homer thus far, his FIP remains strong at 3.29.

13. Josh Zeid, SP (Double-A)
Zeid skipped Clearwater this year to begin the year in Reading. He has struggled slightly with the jump, producing a 4.35 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP. His strikeout rate (6.97 K/9) has dropped and his walk rate (4.35 BB/9) has risen. He’s also struggled inducing ground balls.

14. J.C. Ramirez, SP (Double-A)
In his 2nd year at Reading, Ramirez’s strikeout rate has all but disappeared. Dropping from 6.95 K/9 to 2.05 K/9 is alarming. He has benefited from good luck with a .164 BABIP and 1.03 ERA despite a 3.81 FIP.

15. Perci Garner, SP
Has not pitched in 2011 yet. No word on when he will begin his season.

16. Austin Hyatt, SP (Double-A)
Hyatt has had a decent tart to the season, picking up where he left off in Reading last year. 23 strikeouts and 9 walks in 27 innings is fine. He still does not induce enough grounders but has improved on it so far this year. 3.00 ERA and 3.46 FIP are fine.

17. Jiwan James, OF (A+)
James’s 2011 is looking very similar to 2010. He still struggles with his bat control, striking out 17 times while only walking 5 times in 84 at-bats. The toolsy outfielder currently has a .262/.311/.393 line after 20 games.

18. Aaron Altherr, OF (Single-A)
After striking out only 35 times in 209 at-bats last year, they have skyrocketed to 26 in just 73 at-bats so far this year. There’s no doubt the loss of contact contributes to his .192/.268/.274 line. One positive has been his 6 stolen bases without getting caught.

19. Leandro Castro, OF (A+)
Unlike the other toolsy prospects in this review, Castro has actually started the season hitting well. Hitting .296/.324/.507 with 3 homers and 3 steals is good to see. Slight improvement in strikeout rate (16.9 percent) is nice. However, he must improve on his 2 walks in 74 plate appearances.

20. Matt Rizzotti, 1B (Double-A)
Maintaining a .452 OBP and 1.087 OPS was a long shot, but Rizzotti is still hitting very well. .333/.383/.556 in 23 games is solid. He will probably get another crack at AAA in the summer and could find his way to a call up when September comes.

Honorable Mentions:

21. Phillippe Aumont, RP (Double-A)
Transitioning Aumont into a starter in 2010 was obviously a failure, but he may have found his place as a late-inning reliever. In 10.2 innings, he has shown remarkable improvement striking out 16 and walking 4 while inducing lots of grounders. A 1.32 FIP and 2.53 ERA are both excellent.

22. Drew Carpenter, SP (Triple-A)
Carpenter’s improved control so far in 2011 has led to a good start. Waking just 2 and striking out 11 in 15 innings has led to a 2.40 ERA and 3.00 FIP. It should also be noted that unlike last year, he has made 6 of his 7 appearances as a reliever.

23. Zach Collier, OF (Single-A)
Collier continues his 2010 Lakewood struggles, with a .156/.224/.244 line in 12 games. Pretty much the same as last year.

24. Kelly Dugan, OF
Has not started his 2011 season.

25. Freddy Galvis, SS (Double-A)
Galvis won’t be known for his bat, but he still must improve on it to possibly contribute in the majors someday. .256/.312/.360 in 22 games is much of the same.

26. Harold Garcia, 2B (Double-A)
Garcia has been fine in 2011, posting a .300/.327/.480 line. Would like to see his walk rise throughout the season.

27. Tyson Gillies, OF (Double-A)
Gillies has been nursing hip, groin and hamstring injuries so far this year and has not played any games.

28. Mario Hollands, SP (Single-A)
A 10th round pick last year, Hollands has struggled a bit with homers in the beginning of 2011, giving up 4 in 29.1 innings. 22 strikeouts and 9 walks are not bad. His 2.45 ERA is a bit off from his 4.39 FIP.

29. Bryan Morgado, RP (Single-A)
A 4th round pick last year, he’s struggled a bit- striking out just 5 and walking 4 in 8.2 innings.

30. Jon Pettibone, SP (A+)
Pettibone has done a good job limiting homers by not allowing any in 29 innings. Good luck could also be playing a roll with that as he is not much of a ground-ball pitcher. 20 strikeouts and 7 walks have aided in a 1.55 ERA and 2.54 FIP.

31. Cameron Rupp, C (Single-A)
The Phillies’ third-round pick in 2010, Rupp has struggled In 201. He’s had trouble making contact, striking out 16 times in 54 at-bats, leading to a .222/.300/.315 line.

32. Michael Schwimer, RP (Triple-A)
Schwimer continues piling up strikeouts with 13 in 11 innings. However, lack of control (7 walks) and few groundballs hurt his stock.

Other 2011 Surprises and Notables:

33. Tyler Cloyd, SP (A+)
An 18th round pick in 2008, Cloyd continues improving his control. Walking just 3 while striking out 23 in 23 innings has led to a strong 2.74 ERA and 2.16 FIP.

34. Ebelin Lugo, RP (A+)
Signed as a 16-year-old in 2007, Lugo is still very young and has shown slow, but consistent improvement each year. 2011 appears no different. In 14.2 innings, he’s struck out 12 while walking 3 and allowing only 1 homer. So far it is good for a 3.68 ERA and 3.06 FIP.

35. Joe Savery, DH (A+)
The former first round pick in 2007 failed as a starter, but could possibly have a second chance as a hitter. He’s begun 2011 mashing at a .440/.455/.607 clip. He’s still allergic to walks with only 3 in 87 plate appearances, but makes great contact, striking out only 7 times.

36. Geancarlo Mendez, 1B (Single-A)
After a very successful 2009, Mendez struggled in 2010. He has rebounded in 2011, exhibiting decent plate control with a 6-to-9 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 63 plate appearances. A fortunate .425 BABIP has led to a .351/.413/.886 line. He’s also been successful in all 6 stolen base attempts.

37. Michael Stutes, RP (Triple-A)
Stutes was doing well in Lehigh Valley before making his major league debut recently. He’s been a good strikeout guy over his career in the minors and continued that trend in 2011, striking out 14 in 10 innings while walking 4. However, he must improve his ground-ball rate if he wants to stay in the majors. 

38. Garett Claypool, SP (Single-A)
Lakewood seems to always have a surprise or two each year. Claypool may be their surprise for 2011. The 11th round pick in 2010 has racked up 23 strikeouts and 5 walks in 18 innings. He is throwing too many fly balls, which has led to 3 homers, but a 2.00 ERA and 3.64 FIP are enough to keep an eye on him.

39. Ervis Manzanillo, SP (Single-A)
The Venezuelan is very young (19 years old) but posts strong strikeout numbers (20 in 17.1 innings). His 8 walks are concerning, but still plenty of room to improve. His 5.71 ERA is inflated by a very unlucky 36.4 left on base percentage. A  2.28 FIP is eye-popping.

40. Cody Overbeck, 3B (Double-A)
Not much of a prospect, but Overbeck has started off the year hot hitting 8 homers in 23 games, good for a .337/.380/.675 line. Still strikes out too much (29 percent strikeout rate).

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