Down on the Farm: Philadelphia Phillies May Prospect Review

At the end of April, I reviewed the first month of most of the prospects in the Phillies system. In small sample size, extreme lines were quite common and hardly anything to base judgment on. Even two months is a small sample but certainly better and can begin to make some stronger opinions.

Note that the list itself is still based of John Sickels’ preseason top 20 prospects. In another month or two, I’ll change it to my own current rankings.

Following the first 20 are some of his honorable mentions. Followed by that are some unmentioned surprises and notables thus far in 2011.

 

Top 20:

1. Domonic Brown, OF (MLB)

Upon recovering from his fractured hamate bone, Brown continued mashing minor league pitching. Between his time at Clearwater and Lehigh Valley, Brown hit .350/.431/.600 with four homers in 72 plate appearances. He also posted a nice nine to 12 strikeout-to-walk ration.

He returned to the majors this month and has shown signs of improvement from last year’s debut. In a very small sample size, 29 plate appearances, he’s hitting .320/.379/.440. However, the best sign in his limited time has been his increase in contact. From 2010 to 2011, he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 38.7 percent to 16.0 percent.

STOCK: Same

 

2. Jonathan Singleton, OF (A+)

Singleton struggled in May after a nice April, bringing is season line to .259/.354/.353. Most troublesome has been his strikeout rate, which is at a very high 33.8 percent. It could just be trouble adjusting to high-A but still needs to be kept an eye on.

STOCK: Same

 

3. Brody Colvin, SP (A+)

In 21.1 innings in 2011, Colvinhas struggled a bit with his command, walking 3.80 batters per nine innings. His strikeouts are down from last year as well at 6.33 batters per nine innings. Like Singleton, it is probably just from adjusting to a higher level. The good news is he’s getting more ground balls than last year.

STOCK: Same

 

4. Jarred Cosart, SP (A+)

Similar to Colvin, he’s striking out less (7.09 K/9) and walking more (3.17 BB/9) in his first year at Clearwater while getting more ground balls.

STOCK: Same

 

5. Trevor May, SP (A+)

May is still striking out a ton of batters (11.55 K/9) in his second year at Clearwater but has dramatically improved his walk rate from last year (7.84 BB/9 to 4.75 BB/9).

STOCK: Same

 

6. Jesse Biddle, SP (A)

His velocity is still inconsistent, which is to be expected, but still shows promise. Biddle has been respectable so far in 2011, striking out 47 and walking 28 in 50.1 innings while only giving up one homer.

STOCK: Same

 

7. Sebastian Valle, C (A+)

Valle rebounded in May in a big way, mashing to a .385/.394/.948 line. Even though his strikeout rate remains the same this year, his walk rate has taken a nosedive. Two walks in 131 plate appearances is unacceptable. 

STOCK: Same

 

8. Domingo Santana, OF (A)

Like Valle, Santana’s walk rate as plummeted this year, going from 14.4 percent to only 5.7 percent. It would help if he was making higher contact, but his strikeout rate is still extremely high and disappointing at 37.6 percent. The good news is he is only two homers away from matching last year’s total of eight in over 200 less at-bats. His line thus far in 2011 is .284/.331/.504.

STOCK: Same

 

9. Vance Worley, SP (AAA/MLB)

For a more extensive writeup on Worley, please see my previous article (“Vance Worley: The Next Kyle Kendrick?”). Worley is showing improvement while in Triple-A, increasing his strikeouts by almost a full two batters per nine innings.

He’s filled in adequately in his brief time in the minors, although not to the extreme some like to believe. Worley is not missing too many bats in the majors (5.8 percent swinging strike) but has still done enough to project as a possible No. 4 guy in the future. 

STOCK: Up

 

10. Julio Rodriguez, SP (A+)

After dominating in Lakewood last year, Rodriguez has struggled a bit adjusting to this year’s higher level. His strikeout rate has been almost cut in half at 7.8K/9 in 55.1 innings. His ground-out rate is the lowest its been since 2008.

STOCK: Same

 

11. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (A+)

One thing was for sure, he could not have done any worse in May as he did in April. His 2011 line remains disappointing at .204/.243/.226. However, some of that is due to a career low .236 BABIP. Some leeway is needed as the jump from Williamsport to Clearwater is pretty significant, undoubtedly accounting for less walks and more strikeouts. 

STOCK: Same

 

12. Justin De Fratus, RP (AA)

De Fratus’ early command struggles this year appear to be behind him. He blazed through May striking out 16 and walking only four in 14.1 innings. Drawing four times as many ground-outs than air-outs in May is amazing.

STOCK: Same

 

13. Josh Zeid, SP (AA)

Zeid struggled badly in may, posting a 8.64 ERA with 10 strikeouts and nine walks in 16.2 innings. It’s hard to harshly penalize a player for skipping Clearwater and making the jump to Reading. His 4.27 FIP is up from 2.85 last year.

STOCK: Down

 

14. J.C. Ramirez, SP (AA)

I read a previous Bleacher Report article suggesting J.C. Ramirez is doing better than last year, solely because of his 2.83 ERA. Unfortunately, that is not true. In fact, I, and I’m sure other baseball people would be more impressed with last year’s 5.45 ERA. Why? because you have to look at the peripherals to get a strong sense.

In his second year at Reading, his strikeout rate should not be significantly dropping. Going from 6.95K/9 to an alarming 3.33K/9. While his walk-rate and ground-out rate remain the same, you won’t be considered a strong prospect with Kendrick-like strikeout numbers. Expect a rise in ERA once his very low .214 BABIP regresses to the mean.

STOCK: Down

 

15. Perci Garner, SP

Has not pitched in 2011. Will probably begin in Williamsport soon.

STOCK: Same

16. Austin Hyatt, SP (AA)

Hyatt is maintaining good numbers in his first full year at Reading, following last year’s mid-season promotion. His strikeout rate and walk rate remain similar to last year. His six homers allowed in 53 innings is concerning.

STOCK: Same

 

17. Jiwan James, OF (A+)
James is still looking like the same player as last year- striking out too much (25.3 percent) and walking too little (5.8 percent). Thus far, he’s hitting .247/.294/.368 in just over 200 plate appearances.

STOCK: Same

 

18. Aaron Altherr, OF (A)
Altherr’s May was just as bad as his April. He is obviously struggling with the advancement to Lakewood. He’s still hitting poorly at .189/.259/.250 in 148 plate appearances. His strikeouts (34.1 percent) are still much worse than last year and far too high. He shows good speed when he does manage to get on base, going 11 for 11 in stolen base attempts.

STOCK: Down

 

19. Leandro Castro, OF (A+)

Castro continued hitting well in May to bring his current line to a respectable .281/.318/.473. His walks remain far too low—only five free passes in 178 plate appearances. However, he has shown power improvement with 6 homers.

STOCK: Same

20. Matt Rizzotti, 1B (AA)

Rizzotti improved on his stellar April, hitting .316/.420/.568 with six homers in May. He’s currently leading the entire Eastern League in OPS (.962).

STOCK: Same

Honorable Mentions:

21. Phillippe Aumont, RP (AA)

Aumont continued his rebirth as a reliever with a very impressive 16 strikeouts and just two walks in 13 innings in May. His much-improved 2011 currently sits at a 2.35 FIP, 3.04 ERA, 32 strikeouts, six walks and two homers allowed in 23.2 innings. He is also producing ground-out more than ever.

STOCK: Up

22. Drew Carpenter, RP (AAA)

Capped off by a great Memorial Day performance, Carpenter had a strong May, striking out 24 while walking seven with no homers allowed in 19.1 innings. He’s producing career bests strikeout rate (9.46K/9) and FIP (2.24).

STOCK: Up

 

23. Zach Collier, OF (A)

Collier started the year off poorly, but turned it around strongly in May, hitting .301/.377/.430. He appears fully recovered from last year’s wrist injury and is making strong improvements from 2009, increasing his walks and decreasing his strikeouts. He also has 12 stolen bases in 16 attempts.

STOCK: Up

24. Kelly Dugan, OF

Has not started his 2011 season.

STOCK: Same

25. Freddy Galvis, SS (AA)

Galvis’ May was pretty identical to his April, bringing his 2011 line to .247/.307/.387. He’s shown improvements in both walk rate and strikeout rate. His four homers is only one away from matching his career-high set last year.

STOCK: Same

26. Harold Garcia, 2B (AA)

Unfortunately, Garcia tore his ACL toward the end of April and will miss the rest of the season.

STOCK: Down

27. Tyson Gillies, OF (AA)

Gillies has been nursing hip, groin and hamstring injuries so far this year and has not played any games.

STOCK: Same

 

28. Mario Hollands, SP (A)

Hollands’ 5.33 ERA in May is not indicative of how well he pitched. He’s pitching well in his first year at Lakewood, posting stellar strikeout (7.57K/9) and walk (2.8BB/9) rates, good for a 3.46 FIP.

STOCK: Up

29. Bryan Morgado, RP (A)

A fourth-round pick last year, he’s struggled a bit—striking out just five and walking four in 8.2 innings. He did not pitch in May.

STOCK: Same

30. Jon Pettibone, SP (A+)

Pettibone continued from his strong April. In 32.2 innings, he posted a 1.93 ERA with 27 strikeouts and just five walks. In his last two starts, he allowed just one run in 13 innings while striking out 13 and walking just two. His FIP currently sits at 2.83 in 2011.

STOCK: Up

 

31. Cameron Rupp, C (A)

Rupp continued his struggles in May, bringing his season line to .212/.308/.283. He is striking out too much.

STOCK: Same

32. Michael Schwimer, RP (AAA)

The big righty racked up more strikeouts, 22 in just 16.2 innings in May. Unfortunately his control has much to be desired (4.23BB/9), and he’s getting less ground balls.

STOCK: Same

Other 2011 Surprises and Notables:

33. Tyler Cloyd, SP (A+)

Cloyd continued his solid season. He’s currently sitting at a 2.89 FIP, 2.61 ERA, 38 strikeouts and just seven walks in 41.1 innings.

STOCK: Up

 

34. Ebelin Lugo, RP (A+)

Lugo is striking out a good amount (8.16K/9) and walking few (1.26 BB/9), but his flyball tendencies have lead him getting hurt by the long ball. He’s given up four homers so far in 28.2 innings.

STOCK: Same

 

35. Joe Savery, DH (A+)

After a torrid April, Savery was due for some regression, producing .235/.340/.259 in May. He has excellent control of the strike zone (16 walks to 21 strikeouts) but has not produced much power.

STOCK: Up

36. Geancarlo Mendez, 1B (A)

Like Savery, Mendez suffered from some regression in May. His .231/.308/.380 month brings his season total to .261/.335./.404. He also has good control of the strike zone (16 walks to 22 strikeouts).

STOCK: Same

 

37. Michael Stutes, RP (MLB)

Stutes has continued his strikeout ways in his brief major league stint. In 10.2 innings, he’s accumulated 12 strikeouts with a very impressive 12.1 swinging strike percentage. Unfortunately, walks (5.06BB/9) and flyball tendencies (26.9 ground-ball percentage) will come back to hurt him.

STOCK: Up

 

38. Garett Claypool, SP (A)

Claypool continued his impressive season in May. In 36 innings, he posted a 2.17 FIP with 43 strikeouts and just eight walks. In his last two starts, he’s has 18 strikeouts and two walks in 14 innings while just giving up one run. However, he still must get more ground balls.

STOCK: Up

 

39. Ervis Manzanillo, SP (A)

Manzanillo struggled a bit in May after an impressive April. In 28.2 innings, he struck out 22, walked 13 and gave up three homers—good for a 4.39 FIP. Like many before him, he’s struggling getting ground balls.

STOCK: Up

40. Cody Overbeck, 3B (AA)

He didn’t have as good of a May, but he’s still leading the Eastern League in homers with 13.

STOCK: Up

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