Down on the Farm: Philadelphia Phillies April Prospect Review

Using John Sickels’ list for the Philadelphia Phillies‘ top 20 prospects for 2011, I am doing a quick review through the first month of the baseball season.

Following the first 20 are some of his honorable mentions. Followed by that are some unmentioned surprises and notables thus far in 2011.

Top 20:

1. Domonic Brown, OF (Triple-A)
Brown recently started his rehab assignment with  Clearwater, the Phillies’ Class A+ affiliate,  after fracturing his hamate bone in his right hand in spring training.  Brown has looked good in his brief time in Clearwater, posting a .368/.429/1.165 line with 2 homers In 5 games. He was just activated from the disabled list and optioned to Triple-A affiliate, Lehigh Valley. His major league return is sorely needed as Raul Ibanez continues struggling.

2. Jonathan Singleton, 1B (A+)
The young first baseman got promoted to Class A Advanced, Clearwater Threshers after tearing up Class A last year in Lakewood. The transition has had some good signs and bad, which is pretty typical, especially this early in the season. He’s posted a .306/.424/.832 line in 15 games, although it has benefited from a high BABIP (.407 entering his 14th game). He continues to show good discipline, walking 8 times. However, his strikeouts has risen dramatically with 17 on the season.

3. Brody Colvin, SP (A+)
Colvin has spent almost all of the month on the disabled list with a back injury. He only pitched 2 innings, giving up 3 hits, 2 earned runs, and a walk.

4. Jarred Cosart, SP (A+)
Cosart has transitioned well in his promotion to Clearwater from Lakewood. In 28.1 innings, he’s tallied a 3.81 ERA and 3.20 FIP with a respectable 23 strikeouts and 9 walks. His strikeout rate has dipped from last year, but he’s throwing more groundballs as well.

5. Trevor May, SP (A+)
May struggled badly with his control last year in Clearwater, posting a 7.84 BB/9 in 70 innings. It’s improved to 4.85 BB/9 in 26 innings. His strikeout rate remains solid at 9.00 K/9. His 5.54 ERA is not indicative of his season thus far as he’s posted a 3.43 FIP.

6. Jesse Biddle, SP (Single-A)
Biddle has continued his control problems that began last year upon his promotion to the short-season New York – Penn league. He’s still striking out batters with 15 in 16.1 innings, but his 12 walks is cause for concern. His ERA is an atrocious 7.16, while his FIP is an unspectacular 4.36.

7. Sebastian Valle , C (A+)
Valle continues struggling offensively. His strike zone judgment is still lacking, After a 101 to 27 strikeout to walk ratio in 447 at-bats last year, his 16 to 1 mark in 63 at-bats this year does not show improvement. His struggles with the strike zone have produced a .254/.277/.381 line through 17 games.

8. Domingo Santana, OF (Single-A)
Like Valle, Santana struggles with the strike zone. He is picking right up where he left off last year in Lakewood, striking out 26 times while only walking 3 times in 70 at-bats. Through 18 games he is hitting .229/.260/.371.

9. Vance Worley, SP (Triple-A/MLB)
Worley recently got called up to the majors after an injury to Joe Blanton. Even though he did not give up any runs in 6 innings, his 4 walks were unimpressive. He threw 5 strikeouts, but did not get many swinging strikes (2.0 percent). He did well in Triple-A, posting a 2.78 ERA and 3.77 FIP with 25 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. His upside is limited to a 4th or 5th starter.

10. Julio Rodriguez, SP (A+)
Rodriguez has done well for the most part in his first season in Clearwater. 20 strikeouts in 18.2 innings is good to see. However, 9 walks and an inability to induce grounders is concerning. 3.52 FIP and 2.89 ERA are decent as well.

11. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (A+)
Hernandez has gotten off to a bad start moving up to Clearwater after skipping Lakewood this year. A very low .195 BABIP has contributed to an ugly .151/.196/.170 line. He’s also regressed in his walk rate (6.3 percent) and strikeout rate (23.7 percent).

12. Justin De Fratus, RP (Double-A)
De Fratus has struggled early with his command, walking 7 in 11.1 innings, but has racked up 10 strikeouts and has been inducing more ground balls. Without giving up a homer thus far, his FIP remains strong at 3.29.

13. Josh Zeid, SP (Double-A)
Zeid skipped Clearwater this year to begin the year in Reading. He has struggled slightly with the jump, producing a 4.35 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP. His strikeout rate (6.97 K/9) has dropped and his walk rate (4.35 BB/9) has risen. He’s also struggled inducing ground balls.

14. J.C. Ramirez, SP (Double-A)
In his 2nd year at Reading, Ramirez’s strikeout rate has all but disappeared. Dropping from 6.95 K/9 to 2.05 K/9 is alarming. He has benefited from good luck with a .164 BABIP and 1.03 ERA despite a 3.81 FIP.

15. Perci Garner, SP
Has not pitched in 2011 yet. No word on when he will begin his season.

16. Austin Hyatt, SP (Double-A)
Hyatt has had a decent tart to the season, picking up where he left off in Reading last year. 23 strikeouts and 9 walks in 27 innings is fine. He still does not induce enough grounders but has improved on it so far this year. 3.00 ERA and 3.46 FIP are fine.

17. Jiwan James, OF (A+)
James’s 2011 is looking very similar to 2010. He still struggles with his bat control, striking out 17 times while only walking 5 times in 84 at-bats. The toolsy outfielder currently has a .262/.311/.393 line after 20 games.

18. Aaron Altherr, OF (Single-A)
After striking out only 35 times in 209 at-bats last year, they have skyrocketed to 26 in just 73 at-bats so far this year. There’s no doubt the loss of contact contributes to his .192/.268/.274 line. One positive has been his 6 stolen bases without getting caught.

19. Leandro Castro, OF (A+)
Unlike the other toolsy prospects in this review, Castro has actually started the season hitting well. Hitting .296/.324/.507 with 3 homers and 3 steals is good to see. Slight improvement in strikeout rate (16.9 percent) is nice. However, he must improve on his 2 walks in 74 plate appearances.

20. Matt Rizzotti, 1B (Double-A)
Maintaining a .452 OBP and 1.087 OPS was a long shot, but Rizzotti is still hitting very well. .333/.383/.556 in 23 games is solid. He will probably get another crack at AAA in the summer and could find his way to a call up when September comes.

Honorable Mentions:

21. Phillippe Aumont, RP (Double-A)
Transitioning Aumont into a starter in 2010 was obviously a failure, but he may have found his place as a late-inning reliever. In 10.2 innings, he has shown remarkable improvement striking out 16 and walking 4 while inducing lots of grounders. A 1.32 FIP and 2.53 ERA are both excellent.

22. Drew Carpenter, SP (Triple-A)
Carpenter’s improved control so far in 2011 has led to a good start. Waking just 2 and striking out 11 in 15 innings has led to a 2.40 ERA and 3.00 FIP. It should also be noted that unlike last year, he has made 6 of his 7 appearances as a reliever.

23. Zach Collier, OF (Single-A)
Collier continues his 2010 Lakewood struggles, with a .156/.224/.244 line in 12 games. Pretty much the same as last year.

24. Kelly Dugan, OF
Has not started his 2011 season.

25. Freddy Galvis, SS (Double-A)
Galvis won’t be known for his bat, but he still must improve on it to possibly contribute in the majors someday. .256/.312/.360 in 22 games is much of the same.

26. Harold Garcia, 2B (Double-A)
Garcia has been fine in 2011, posting a .300/.327/.480 line. Would like to see his walk rise throughout the season.

27. Tyson Gillies, OF (Double-A)
Gillies has been nursing hip, groin and hamstring injuries so far this year and has not played any games.

28. Mario Hollands, SP (Single-A)
A 10th round pick last year, Hollands has struggled a bit with homers in the beginning of 2011, giving up 4 in 29.1 innings. 22 strikeouts and 9 walks are not bad. His 2.45 ERA is a bit off from his 4.39 FIP.

29. Bryan Morgado, RP (Single-A)
A 4th round pick last year, he’s struggled a bit- striking out just 5 and walking 4 in 8.2 innings.

30. Jon Pettibone, SP (A+)
Pettibone has done a good job limiting homers by not allowing any in 29 innings. Good luck could also be playing a roll with that as he is not much of a ground-ball pitcher. 20 strikeouts and 7 walks have aided in a 1.55 ERA and 2.54 FIP.

31. Cameron Rupp, C (Single-A)
The Phillies’ third-round pick in 2010, Rupp has struggled In 201. He’s had trouble making contact, striking out 16 times in 54 at-bats, leading to a .222/.300/.315 line.

32. Michael Schwimer, RP (Triple-A)
Schwimer continues piling up strikeouts with 13 in 11 innings. However, lack of control (7 walks) and few groundballs hurt his stock.

Other 2011 Surprises and Notables:

33. Tyler Cloyd, SP (A+)
An 18th round pick in 2008, Cloyd continues improving his control. Walking just 3 while striking out 23 in 23 innings has led to a strong 2.74 ERA and 2.16 FIP.

34. Ebelin Lugo, RP (A+)
Signed as a 16-year-old in 2007, Lugo is still very young and has shown slow, but consistent improvement each year. 2011 appears no different. In 14.2 innings, he’s struck out 12 while walking 3 and allowing only 1 homer. So far it is good for a 3.68 ERA and 3.06 FIP.

35. Joe Savery, DH (A+)
The former first round pick in 2007 failed as a starter, but could possibly have a second chance as a hitter. He’s begun 2011 mashing at a .440/.455/.607 clip. He’s still allergic to walks with only 3 in 87 plate appearances, but makes great contact, striking out only 7 times.

36. Geancarlo Mendez, 1B (Single-A)
After a very successful 2009, Mendez struggled in 2010. He has rebounded in 2011, exhibiting decent plate control with a 6-to-9 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 63 plate appearances. A fortunate .425 BABIP has led to a .351/.413/.886 line. He’s also been successful in all 6 stolen base attempts.

37. Michael Stutes, RP (Triple-A)
Stutes was doing well in Lehigh Valley before making his major league debut recently. He’s been a good strikeout guy over his career in the minors and continued that trend in 2011, striking out 14 in 10 innings while walking 4. However, he must improve his ground-ball rate if he wants to stay in the majors. 

38. Garett Claypool, SP (Single-A)
Lakewood seems to always have a surprise or two each year. Claypool may be their surprise for 2011. The 11th round pick in 2010 has racked up 23 strikeouts and 5 walks in 18 innings. He is throwing too many fly balls, which has led to 3 homers, but a 2.00 ERA and 3.64 FIP are enough to keep an eye on him.

39. Ervis Manzanillo, SP (Single-A)
The Venezuelan is very young (19 years old) but posts strong strikeout numbers (20 in 17.1 innings). His 8 walks are concerning, but still plenty of room to improve. His 5.71 ERA is inflated by a very unlucky 36.4 left on base percentage. A  2.28 FIP is eye-popping.

40. Cody Overbeck, 3B (Double-A)
Not much of a prospect, but Overbeck has started off the year hot hitting 8 homers in 23 games, good for a .337/.380/.675 line. Still strikes out too much (29 percent strikeout rate).

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Phillies: Roy Halladay and the Top 7 Phillies of the Month, Who’s No. 1?

Before revealing my first Top Phillie of the Month Award—can you bear the suspense?—let’s take a look at how the month of April played out for the Philadelphia Phillies.

To put it another way, one has to wonder if other teams will copy the Phillies’ recipe for success, which included these ingredients:

No contribution, due to injuries, from their best all-around player (Chase Utley), their No. 1 closer (Brad Lidge) and their top prospect (Domonic Brown).

Early season trips to the Disabled List for starting pitcher Joe Blanton, and relievers Jose Contreras and J. C. Romero.

A lusty .161 batting average from their starting left fielder, Raul Ibanez, a player who hit .275 with 83 RBI last season.

Five, count ‘em, five RBI from their new No. 3 hitter, Jimmy Rollins.

A 14-game stretch in which the Phillies scored a total of 39 runs, never exceeding four in any contest.

If you think that this sounds more like a prescription for disaster than a recipe for success, you would be correct. But the recipe must be a tasty one, as the Phillies (18-8) hold the best record in the National League and are tied with the most surprising Cleveland Indians for the best mark in the bigs.

Skipper Charlie Manuel must be doing something right.

April ended the same way it started, at Citizens Bank Park with Ace of Aces Roy Halladay on the hill pitching terrific ball. The 2-1 win over the Mets, among other things, featured another key hit from John Mayberry, Jr, who started the month with a walk-off hit.

Enough for the team recap. Let’s get to my inaugural Top Phillie of the Month Award, a most prestigious honor that is accompanied with no promise of cash or prizes to be donated by a wealthy benefactor. It’s all about the honor, anyway, as these seven Phillies—in ascending order of merit—would likely agree.

Please Note: I did not wish to rank more than seven Phillies players, but I did cagily sneak in an extra couple. I still apologize to Shane Victorino (.290, four homers, 12 RBI, 19 runs and three SB) for just missing out. The Flyin’ Hawaiian may find solace in winning the second-ever Top Phillie of the Week two weeks ago.

 

7) Cliff Lee

 The Ace of Hearts only sports a 2-2 record with a 4.18 ERA, but he has pitched better than those middling numbers would indicate. In 32.1 innings, Cliff has fanned 39 batters against only four walks, contributing to his excellent WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched) of 1.05.

Lee has pitched quite well in three of his five starts (Phils are 3-2) and threw the best game of the season: a 4-0 (complete game) three-hit shutout at Washington. Amazingly, he struck out 12 batters and only walked one, while only throwing 99 pitches.

 

6) Roy Oswalt

 The Ace of Clubs (3-1, 3.33) was putting up remarkable numbers (3-0, 1.88) prior to his April 25 start against Arizona. It would be understandable if he came to the round preoccupied with the horrible tornadoes that have devastated areas surrounding his Mississippi home. Sometimes life intervenes, and all of Phillies Nation wishes Roy, his family and community the best.

Back to the mound. In 27 innings, Little Roy has yielded only 21 hits and seven walks (a 1.04 WHIP) while striking out 21. The Phillies are 3-2 in games he has started.

 

5) Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson

 Despite all the well-placed preseason concern, the back-end of the bullpen has really gotten it done in April, earning eight saves in as many opportunities with a very low collective ERA.

Bastardo may be the most impressive, striking out 16 batters and walking four in 10.1 quality innings. He is 1-0 with an 0.87 ERA and a microscopic 0.77 WHIP. Oh yes, he earned one save in as many pitches.

Contreras made good on all five of his save chances, before hitting the DL after his April 21 appearance. In eight innings, he has yielded four hits and four walks (a 1.00 WHIP) while fanning nine. His ERA sits, with him, at 0.00.

Madson leaves April with a 2-0 record, an 0.90 ERA and two saves in as many chances. The lanky, 6’6” righty has given up seven hits and three walks (a 1.00 WHIP) while striking out 12. And he usually pitches even better late in the season.

 

4) Cole Hamels

 The Ace of Diamonds has sparkled brilliantly after a highly flawed season debut at home versus the Mets.

Even with that one bad outing, Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.11. Cole has fanned 34, walked nine and yielded 26 hits in 31.2 innings. The team is 4-1 on his starts.

 

3) Ryan Howard

 The Big Piece enters May leading the NL with 27 RBI in 26 games and a very strong .290/.361/.560 slash, with six home runs.

Will you bet against him topping 40 homers and 125 RBI against this year? I should add that he has played very strong defense thus far, including Saturday’s wonderful game-ending dive-and-backhand flip to…

 

2) Roy Halladay

 The Ace of Spades threw another complete game yesterday, his second of the month, raising his record to 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA.

Doc has dominated in five of his six starts (the Phillies won his only no-decision) and has let up only 39 hits and seven walks (good for a 1.02 WHIP) in 46.1 innings of yeoman work. Forty-seven would-be hitters have walked back dejectedly to the dugout after swinging or looking at strike three versus Halladay.

The defending, unanimous Cy Young Award winner should have cruised to the Top Phillie of the Month Award, but for…

 

1) Placido Polanco

 Does it seem like a couple years ago when there was lots of concern over Polly’s (hyper-extended) elbow?

The deluxe No. 2 hitter is batting a white-hot .398 (third in the NL) with two homers, 19 RBI and 18 runs. Polanco has even stolen three bases in as many attempts.

Polly leaves April with an amazing 41 hits, and he has had very few poor at-bats this young season. He had the game-winning RBI yesterday on a sacrifice fly to right.

One has to have had an amazing month to beat out Roy Halladay for the TPM award, and Placido Polanco made it almost impossible for me to pick against him.

 

Gold Notes

One runs out of superlatives to praise Roy Halladay, so we’ll just let this stat speak for itself.

Doc opened the game with 18 straight strikes (the first pitcher to do so in 20 years, per STATS, LLC); on the day, 80 of his 107 pitches were strikes.

Although he was already hovering around the 100-pitch plateau, did anybody expect Manuel to pull him when he started the top of the ninth with a walk to David Wright and two balls to Carlos Beltran?

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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