Philadelphia Phillies: Ranking the Top 5 Pitching Prospects Thus Far in 2011

Without question, the Phillies have one of the greatest pitching rotations ever assembled.

Aces Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay may be in their 30s, but they are both very much in the prime of their careers and look to be entrenched in the Philadelphia rotation for the next five years. Likewise 33-year old Roy Oswalt, a former ace with the Houston Astros, looks to have some left in the tank while the youngest staffer, Cole Hamels, who is in his sixth year already, may be considered a top 10-to-15 starting pitcher in the majors at the end of this season if he isn’t already. It goes without saying that these four will be the heart of the Philadelphia rotation for quite some time.

Regardless of how the big club is doing, it’s always a good thing to continue developing your team’s future through the minor leagues, and the Phillies are doing just that. They’ve even got a trio of pitchers down in High-A deemed “The Next Three” by Phillies fans across the internet.

Here’s a look at my re-ranking of the Phillies’ pitching prospects about a month-and-a-half into the 2011 season:

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Philadelphia Phillies: 6 Exposed Myths About the Core Four

The Phillies have the top pitching rotation in baseball on paper.  Before the season there were many myths concerning the Phillies pitching because of their four aces.  The staff has lived up to expectations so far, giving the Phillies the best record in baseball. 

The Phillies toughest challenges will be against the Atlanta Braves, and the Florida Marlins, which have combined to give them half of their losses.  The Phils are depending on their starting pitchers to carry them through the season, and the start of the season has some very promising signs for the team. 

Here are 6 myths about the starting pitching that have already been exposed. 

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Vance Worley: The Next Kyle Kendrick?

With a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings so far this year, many are under the impression that Vance Worley is more than what he is.

It’s hard to turn a corner without someone harping that he should be the fifth starter instead of Blanton. But is he really deserving of it, other than a deflated ERA? When looking deeper, even in such a small sample size, I’d say he’s on a closer level to that of Kyle Kendrick than being an improvement over Blanton.

And surely, a sane man would not want Kendrick as the Phillies’ fifth starter.

For the record, I do believe Worley is and will be a better player than Kyle Kendrick, but I think its necessary to temper the expectations of many Phillies fans out there.

Like Worley, Kendrick’s rookie season ERA was better than his true ability. Posting a 3.87 ERA is 121 innings led many to think he had some sort of upside as a potentially good starter. I even remember one delusional fan call in WIP and say he could be like another Tom Glavine!

They did not want to believe the naysayers who would point to his 4.94 FIP, 4.57 xFIP and very low 3.64 K/9 as signs that his ERA was mostly a fluke. In Worley’s brief major league career, his ERA, 1.24, is also much lower than his 3.17 FIP and 3.55 xFIP. Although those are still very respectable numbers and much better than Kendrick, there are reasons to believe those are heavily influenced by good luck so far as well.

His 1.24 career ERA has been heavily influenced by a ridiculously unsustainable 95.2 left on base percentage. To put that in some perspective, the highest career LOB% for a starter in the history of baseball is Whitey Ford at 77.9 percent. Roy Halladay’s career LOB% is 73.3 percent.

His ERA, and FIP and xFIP have also been deflated due to a very low and unsustainable .200, about 100 points below the major league average.

An inflated strikeout rate is another reason for a luckier FIP and xFIP. This is also where the comparisons to Kendrick will begin.

Even though Worley has had a 8.38 K/9 in his 29 innings in the majors, signals point that it should be much lower. His career 86.4 contact percentage and 5.5 swinging strike percentage, a better indicator of future strikeout rate, screams of a K/9 that should be much lower.

Looking at these numbers blindly, you would not be able to tell who was who from him and Kendrick.

Their major league career numbers:

Player	Swinging Strike Percent	Contact Percent	Contact Percent pitches in zone	Contact Percent pitches out of zone
Vance         Worley	5.5%	86.4%	92.2%	77.3%
Kyle Kendrick	4.9%	88.7%	93.2%	75.6%

One thing Worley has over Kendrick is coming up through the system, at least Worley showed improvement or steadiness rather than decline like Kendrick.

Being just 23, he still has room for some improvement in the coming years, probably to a capable No. 4. For now, for this season though, I don’t expect him to be some magical find that is something other than a spot starter.

Regression to the mean will inevitably occur, just be prepared.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Awarding the Top Phillie of the Week (in a so-so Week)

In This Past Week in Phillies Baseball, the men in red traveled to the southern reaches of the NL East, visiting the Florida Marlins and the Atlanta Braves.

The Phils completed the week (defined as Monday through Sunday) with a 3-3 record, taking two from the Marlins and dropping the final two to the Braves. It was good enough to keep them two games ahead of the Marlins in the NL East, and they retained their best record in the league status.

It was a week that Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel went with a four-man pitching rotation of Joe Blanton, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels; the first pair getting two starts apiece.

It was a week that also saw almost as much Major League talent suit up for the Single-A Clearwater Threshers—last Thursday night’s contest saw pitcher Roy Oswalt, catcher Carlos Ruiz and second baseman Chase Utley all start for the Floridian minor leaguers—as performed for the parent club.

While these three All-Star caliber players were rehabbing in A-ball, and outfielder Domonic Brown was also playing himself back into MLB shape, the Phillies were giving lots of playing time to the likes of Pete Orr, Ross Gload, Wilson Valdez and John Mayberry, Jr.

The week saw ace of aces Halladay pitch two strong games but come away with two losses. Second banana Cliff Lee pitched pretty well on Wednesday evening, but got pulled early (in the top of the seventh). Manuel was desperate to get any offense going for Lee, who could sue his offense for non-support and win more millions for his family.

With no wins to show for his last five starts, I’m sure Lee would give back tons of loot to pick up a win or two. It got so interesting for Lee that even when he scorched a single off Omar Infante’s glove (or leg) with two outs in the top of the fifth to apparently knot the game at 1-1, backup catcher Brain Schneider (a fill-in himself for the then-injured Carlos Ruiz) strained a left hamstring rounding third. The wounded catcher retreated to first base before being pulled from the game.

To the Phillies’ credit, they would fight back to win 5-3, but they scored no runs in six innings while Lee was still hurling.

Curiosities like this, and a very erratic offense, make it hard for me to award my Top Phillie of the Week Award, but here goes, from No. 6 to No.1.

6. John Mayberry, Jr. played in five games, but had a grand total of six at-bats this week. He did what he could with them, going 2-for-6 with a homer, two RBI and two stolen bases.

Mayberry was the Phillies’ offense in the 3-2 loss to the Marlins yesterday, launching a two-run homer in the top of the sixth. He also drew two walks and stole a base, but the rest of the offense did not deliver. For the season, he is slashing .295/.415/.500.

5. Ryan Howard only went 5-for-23 (.217), but he slugged his ninth homer, drove in five and scored four. He leads the league with 35 RBI and is fifth in home runs with nine. Just wait ’till the perennial All-Star really heats up.

4. This may, in fact, be a sympathy vote for Cliff Lee. The people’s choice only threw six innings and gave up three earned runs on seven hits (while striking out four against no walks), but the man is pitching with absolutely no margin for error these days. (And he did stroke what should have been a game-tying hit with two outs in the fifth.)

Lee will have a chance to break that five-game skid against Jake Westbrook and the St. Louis Cardinals. Is this the night he gets rewarded again?

3. Roy Halladay: Maybe the Phillies’ offense is starting to give Doc Halladay the Cliff Lee treatment. Phillies fans, pray not!

Doc pitched 16 innings and two more complete games this past week, but only had two losses to show for it. He yielded 13 hits, walked four and fanned 16. The four earned runs made his ERA 2.25 for the week and 2.21 for the season.

2. Vance Worley, after two terrific starts, was brought back to the bullpen with Big Joe back in the starting rotation. He was not perfect in the two games, but only yielded three hits and one run in his four innings. Worley did earn holds in both starts, and his record for the season is now 2-0 with a 1.24 ERA.

My co-runner-up this week is Antonio Bastardo, who continues to impress. AB threw just 1.1 innings without a run, struck out two and walked one. He has replaced J.C. Romero as the go-to lefty (for now, anyway) and his 2-0 record with the 1.26 ERA—to say nothing of his 21 Ks, seven walks and only seven hits in 14.1 innings—is quite encouraging.

1. This week’s winner of the TPW Award is…Ryan Madson. The former king of the eighth has shown that he can also own the ninth inning this year.

For the week, R-Mad earned three saves in as many appearances and surrendered only one hit and one walk while striking out four batters.

He has excelled all year and is now six-for-six in save opportunities, while compiling a 2-0 record with an 0.56 ERA, a WHIP of 0.94 and an opponents’ batting average of .161.

Not only is Madson our Top Phillie of the Week, but he is also on a short list of Team MVP candidates for this young season.

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books (Wordapodia, Volume One and All That Twitters is Not Goldberg), as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 High Bust-Potential Prospects They Should Trade

The MLB draft is a crapshoot.

Every year each team drafts approximately 50 players.  It’s considered a success if six of those prospects wind up in the bigs.

Year in and year out, the Phillies select a lot of developmental project players. Many of those developmental players are in Single-A ball, and at this point it’s very tough to gauge what these players will be five years from now.

Out of all of the prospects in the Phillies system, Domonic Brown has the highest ceiling.  He also has a high bust potential. 

But he won’t be on this list.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Will Injuries Derail the Phils’ Season?

As of May 13, 2011, the Phillies are 25-13 and two games ahead of the Florida Marlins for first place in the NL East. 

However, Phillies players are dropping like flies. Can they maintain this pace in spite of all the injuries?

So far, the Phillies have lost their starting shortstop, both catchers, two starting pitchers, a bunch of relief pitchers and more.

Starter Joe Blanton came off the DL but looks like he needs to go back as he is still in pain and losing speed on his pitches. Starter Roy Oswalt is coming back this week, but also looks like he is not 100 percent after a rehab start on Thursday.

Then in Saturday’s 5-3 loss to the Braves, center fielder Shane Victorino left the game early with a hamstring pull. It ended his 15-game hitting streak.

The Phillies’ anemic offense managed only three hits in the game, a trend which has continued throughout the season so far. The pitching has helped the Phillies win games, but the loses due to a lack of hitting are starting to pile up.

At the same time, the pitchers are now coming up lame. If the injuries continue and the Phillies wind up with both weak pitching and weak hitting at the same time, this spells trouble.

If Victorino winds up on the DL, the Phillies may have been able to fill the roster spot by calling Domonic Brown back up since he has recovered from hand surgery. However, earlier in the week, Brown sprained the thumb on the same hand he had surgery on and is unavailable to play right now.

Currently in right field, Ben Francisco has been terrible in the month of May. He is hitting just .071 since May 1. Ryan Howard is hitting .217 in May. Placido Polanco’s May numbers are down as well, hitting .234. Brian Schneider’s bat was starting to heat up when he got hurt and was sent to the DL. Carlos Ruiz is back, but rusty and he is still looking for his first hit this month.

The bench players have filled in admirably where they are able to. But if this trend continues where the offense slumps and the pitching can no longer bail them out, the Phillies could lose their grasp on first place quickly.

The Phillies season is at a crossroads now. Either they will be able to continue to battle through the injuries or they will not.

But this is an issue they have dealt with for many years running now. This Phillies team knows how to carry on when star players hit the skids.

Hopefully, knowing that they have overcome injuries in the past will be enough to propel them into the future as a winning team.

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Why All the Hate for Domonic Brown?

Domonic Brown has been tearing up the minors once again and his return is inevitable. Still, there’s a large contingent of Phillies fans that have absolutely no faith in him because of his lackluster 70 plate appearances last year, a good portion of which came as a pinch hitter.

They’d rather just sit and hope the trio of Ibanez, Mayberry and Francisco hold the fort down.

In Ibanez’s case I find it hard to believe Brown can be any worse than a .232/.289/.360 line along with terrible defense. Only one player in baseball, Juan Pierre, has put up a worse WAR.

Sure, Brown struggled in his very limited time in the majors last year going .210/.257/.355 and 24 strikeouts. To many, apparently that is enough to label his a bust. Apparently, no other prospect who has started his career off poor has ever amounted to anything.

If you don’t start out like Pujols or Braun, you won’t be good. As we all know, Jeff Francouer and his .432/.439/.827 line his first 82 plate appearances is a bona fide star and future hall of famer.

Many players in the past have proven you can have a bad start to your career and still be a great player.

Player	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Willie Mays	32	26	.038	.219	.154
Mickey Mantle	56	51	.216	.273	.333
Eddie Matthews	61	58	.224	.262	.397
Ryne Sandberg	96	90	.189	.213	.278
Cal Ripken Jr.	40	39	.128	.150	.128
Rickey Henderson	201	179	.246	.301	.291
Pete Rose	45	38	.158	.273	.211

If it was up to Phillies fans’ criteria, Mike Schmidt would never have deserved to be a starter after hitting under .200 through his first two years and 483 plate appearances. He turned out to be a nice player.

The same goes for Chase Utley, whose .221/.277/.337 start in 94 plate appearances didn’t foretell a future best-in-the-league second baseman. 

With the Padres, Shane Victorino was awful in his first big league season as well—hitting .151/.232/.178 in 83 plate appearances. 

Young guys prospects like Domonic Brown need at bats. That’s the only way they will get better and prove how good they are. You don’t become a top prospect in baseball by accident. He has the athletic ability and skill to prove his shortsighted doubters wrong.

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The Philadelphia Phillies 2008 First Year Player Draft: Where Are They Now?

For the Philadelphia Philles, 2008 was quite special for the Philadelphia Phillies, as I’m sure you know. But long before the team captured the World Series title in October, the front office and its team of scouts set out to find the next great Phillie in the Rule 4 (or First Year Player) Draft, in the month of June.

So by now, I’m sure you’re thinking, “What’s the relevance for this article, Greg? Who cares about 2008?” Well a couple of recent highly touted promotions  got me thinking, which may or may not be a good thing. Earlier in the week, the Kansas City Royals promoted one of the best prospects in all of baseball when they called up slugging first baseman Eric Hosmer to the big league club. Through six games, he’s posted a line of .333/.444 /.714, with a couple of home runs.

So, as a fan of baseball in general, I was rather impressed by this, and I took to the Internet to find out exactly where he was drafted. Needless to say, I was even more impressed that he was drafted just a couple of seasons ago, and then even more impressed to see the level of talent from that draft to have already reached the Major Leagues.

Along with Hosmer’s emergence, a number of other teams found core pieces to their current roster in this draft, the most notable of which was probably the fifth overall selection, when the San Francisco Giants selected Buster Posey—now a World Champion.

Those weren’t the only two high-profile players selected in the first round of the 2008 draft though. Several other major league regulars were picked in this draft, and moreover, a number of blue-chip prospects that were traded for big name players were picked here.

Be it as a big prospect or productive player, a number of recognizable names were selected in this draft, including Tim Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham, Aaron Crow (who would not sign), Jason Castro, Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, Ike Davis, Andrew Cashner, Daniel Schlereth, Lonnie Chisenhall, Casey Kelly and even Gerrit Cole, who could be the first overall pick in this year’s draft.

So as the die-hard Phillies’ fan that I am, this looked to be an extremely productive draft to me, and I was left wondering, as we suffer through a lack of production on the big league roster, what happened to the guys that the Phils picked in this draft. So I decided to do some exploring, and at first glance, the results are ugly.

Their first pick in this draft came in the first round, as the 24th overall selection. The Phils chose a shortstop out of Salisbury School in Connecticut by the name of Anthony Hewitt. I suppose the good news is that he is still within the Phillies’ system.

After drafting Hewitt, the Phils’ immediately moved him from his natural shortstop position, finding him a new home at third base. The thought was that they were grooming their third baseman of the future, but needless to say, he isn’t going to be playing for the big league club any time soon.

In fact, he hasn’t even been able to stick at third base. Hewitt has bounced around between third, the outfield and even spent time as the team’s designated hitter, but just could not light a fire under his bat. In his only full season (2010), he posted a slash line of .202/.243 /.327, with 11 home runs.

Following the selection of Hewitt, the Phillies picked again in the supplemental round after losing outfielder Aaron Rowand to the San Francisco Giants in free agency the prior winter. So with the 34th overall pick in 2008, the Phils’ took an outfielder by the name of Zachary Collier out of Chino Hills High School in California.

Much like Hewitt, Collier has been a bust thus far in the Phillies system. Once a highly touted prospect, he has fallen through the system like a rock, surpassed by the talented outfielders coming through. He missed the entire 2010 season thanks to injury, and his return to the baseball field in 2011 has been slow. To date, he’s posted a line of .208/.313/.333 with the Low-A Lakewood BlueClaws, and with numbers like that, he won’t be moving through the system any time soon.

With picks like those two and the amount of talent in this year, the 2008 draft had to be a complete bust for the Phillies, right? Wrong. Though they may not have found that “can’t miss” prospect, the Phils did select a number of interesting players.

One thing that the Phils certainly did do was bolster the level of pitching talent in their system. In the third round, they selected a crafty right hander by the name of Vance Worley out of Long Beach State, and from that point forward, drafted a number of talented, but under-the-radar, pitchers that would become the base of their system, including Jonathan Pettibone, Trevor May, Colby Shreve, Julio Rodriguez, Michael Stutes, Brian Rosenberg, Michael Schwimer, Jordan Ellis and Jarred Cosart.

The one thing missing from this draft was a position player of importance. After failing with selections like Hewitt and Collier, the Phillies really didn’t hit on any of the position players they selected in this draft. One intriguing name, however, is Cody Overbeck, who is lighting the Phillies’ system on fire this season. He isn’t thought of much as a prospect, but he has made progress this season with the AA Reading Phillies. Through 31 games, he’s posted a line of .278/.325/.548, with nine home runs. It’s worth mentioning that he hit just 13 home runs in all of 2010.

The front office did what it does best in this draft, they drafted players they can use. Whether it’s developing crucial prospects to be part of the Phillies in the future or as major trade chips, the Phils have a knack for drafting interesting talents. 2008 was not an exception, when they drafted a couple of players who would become parts of major trades—Jason Knapp (sent to the Cleveland Indians in the 2009 Cliff Lee trade) and Anthony Gose (sent to the Houston Astros in the 2010 Roy Oswalt trade).

So fear not, Phillies fans. I admit that while I’m a bit disappointed the Phils couldn’t find a legitimate, over-the-top prospect like Eric Hosmer in this draft, they went for quantity instead of quality. And while normally that may not be a good thing, it seems as though they’ve managed to draft a quantity of quality prospects.

Let’s not forget. It takes more than one player to form a team, and the Phillies are well prepared to form an elite team both now, and in the future.

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MLB Trade Scenarios: 6 Ideas to Solve the Raul Ibanez Problem

The issue of Raul Ibanez in left field was an obstacle that the Phillies‘ management new would come up soon.

Despite his recent success, we all know that Ibanez’ time is coming to an end fast. Ibanez is a 39-year-old veteran who is on a hot surge as of late, but realistically this won’t last for too long.

In his last year of his contract at an old age, it will be very hard for Philly to find a suitor for him.

In the following slides, we’ll go through possible trades that could happen between the Phillies and other teams. All of them will involve the Phillies giving up prospects, but that’s just the way deals work in the MLB. 

Considering it is early in the season, this is much more of a prediction/educated guess of the future, because not many rumors have been spread about Ibanez and the Phillies thus far.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Chase Utley, Roy Oswalt and Chooch Rehab in Clearwater

As Chase Utley turned on a fastball in the fifth and deposited it out of Bright House Field, a big grin could be seen on countless Phillies fans around Philadelphia.

He’s getting there.

The big club had an off day, but down in Clearwater, the Phillies present and future combined to take on the Palm Beach Cardinals. 

In Philadelphia, Comcast Sportsnet aired the game due to the unique circumstances. It was a rare opportunity to check out some Single-A baseball.

Triple-A and the bigs aren’t vastly different, but at the Single-A level, you could see why a lot of these players have a while to go. There were some misplays in the field and some control issues from the pitchers.

Roy Oswalt started, while Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz got in some at-bats.

Obviously, Utley and the knee have been the story in Clearwater. He has 18 games remaining in his 20-game rehab assignment.

More than anything, I wanted to see Utley run the bases. 

He lead-off the fourth and worked a walk. Ruiz hit a groundball in the hole to move Utley to second. He had no limp, no wincing as he went full-board into second. On the plant rounding second base, once again no limp, no wincing.

It’s a great sign.

Oswalt came in with a 75 pitch limit and didn’t have the normal velocity on his fastball. Jim Salisbury reported that his fastball read 89-91 MPH on the radar gun and Ruiz stated that his fastball had no life.

At the minor league level, the hitters see mostly fastballs, so I was trying to figure out whether or not Oswalt threw a lot of changeups and breaking pitches for that reason.

When he threw his fastball, the Cardinals got some good swings in.

After a long bottom of the fourth that saw the Threshers score two, the Cardinals answered with two of their own in the top of the fifth. 

With the tightness in his back, Oswalt sat for about 15 minutes during Clearwater’s at-bat in the fourth and just didn’t look sharp in that fifth inning.

Overall, Oswalt allowed three earned on seven hits and one walk in five innings pitched.

I’d like to see him get another rehab start in before being called back up. 

Ruiz, also recovering from a sore back, went one-for-three with a single and a run scored. Most likely, he’ll be brought up tomorrow for the Atlanta Braves series.

As for the game, Clearwater defeated Palm Beach 7-5.

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