MLB: Will Derek Jeter’s Contract Be a Basis for Jimmy Rollins’ New Deal?

As the old saying goes, they don’t make ’em like they used to.

For Yankees fans, they know this very well with their shortstop and captain Derek Jeter.

Simply put, he just is not the same player that he was 10 years ago. Neither is Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins.

That being said, the Yankees gave Jeter a three-year, $51 million extension this offseason with a player option included for 2014. After long weeks of negotiations, the deal was done, keeping Jeter in Yankee pinstripes.

It’s not like anybody envisioned Jeter in any other uniform besides the Yankees’. What many likely did not envision was the outlandish contract that the Yankees gave to him.

Now, the Yankees find Jeter hitting .271, with a .322 on-base percentage and measly .338 slugging percentage. After last year’s .370 slugging percentage, not many would have expected much power out of Jeter. They also didn’t expect this decline.

Meanwhile, back in Philadelphia, Rollins is answering critics’ questions. Much like Jeter, many questioned this offseason what Rollins had left in the tank and where the Phillies might go without him.

Right now, Rollins is making it hard for the Phillies to envision a 2012 starting lineup without him. He has posted a .283/.370/.372 start to the season and has batted third for a majority of the campaign.

Now back in his customary lead-off spot, Rollins has produced there as well.

What may be most surprising about Rollins’ resurgence is his increased walk rate of 12.1 percent. Last year, Rolllins posted a very respectable 10.6 percent walk rate. Rollins has never been one known for his ability to take pitches, but he is doing just that right now.

Rollins has had his power years; he hit 25 home runs in 2006, had 30 in his MVP season in 2007 and 21 in 2009. In this presently constituted Philadelphia lineup, the Phillies don’t need Rollins to hit home runs.

They need him to get on base, and he is doing just that. Not many people would expect Rollins to keep up a .370 OBP for the entire season, but anything from the .350-.360 range would be a drastic improvement for a player who has a career OBP of .329.

Even when Rollins hit 21 home runs in 2009, his OBP was just .296. It might have been the most frustrating season of his career, with manager Charlie Manuel moving him up and down the Phillies’ lineup.

Now Rollins looks to settle back into the lead-off spot after batting third in a modified Phillies order for the first month of the season. With Chase Utley’s return on the horizon, the Phillies would expect their first three hitters of Rollins, Placido Polanco and Utley to produce big offensive numbers.

It brings up an interesting question. Where will Rollins play in 2012?

He makes $8.5 million this season, the final year of his contract which went into effect prior to the 2006 season. The Phillies were able to work out a relatively friendly five-year, $40 million with Rollins prior to the 2006 season, with the club option for 2011 included.

It was no surprise that the Phillies picked up Rollins’ club option well before the 2010 season, a year in advance. At the time, it appeared to be a move that showed the Phillies’ loyalty to their long-time shortstop.

Naturally, it would be a surprise for the Phillies to let Rollins go. Quite frankly, there are not many shortstops out there capable of posting a .750 OPS that also play Gold Glove defense. Unsurprisingly, Rollins is off to a good defensive start in 2011, though early numbers say Jeter has actually performed well defensively also.

Rollins is as much a Philadelphia institution as the Liberty Bell or cheesesteaks. Corny analogies aside, the Phillies need Rollins and Rollins needs the Phillies.

Since he broke into the league for a short stint at the end of the 2000 season, he hasn’t left. He has set numerous Phillies records, been to three All-Star Games, won three Gold Gloves and oh yeah, won an MVP in 2007.

There is little doubt that Rollins’ agent, Dan Lozano, will at least mention Jeter’s deal in any negotiations. However, it is doubtful that Rollins will get anything near Jeter’s deal, nor should he.

To be frank, Jeter should not have been given Jeter’s deal.

There is time for the Phillies to work out a contract with Rollins, but it’s hard to imagine any other shortstop patrolling the position for Philadelphia. The less-than-stellar free agent class this offseason includes J.J. Hardy, Yuniesky Betancourt, Rafael Furcal, Jack Wilson and Marco Scutaro.

Sure, feel free to throw Jose Reyes’ name in there, but don’t expect the Phillies to be interested in the Met.

A three-year deal in the $30-33 million range for Rollins would not be surprising, and would seem to fit both sides pretty well. Rollins will be 33 in November, and his best days, much like Jeter’s, are behind him.

Don’t expect him to get the type of contract that Jeter did, though. And don’t expect Rollins to ask for it, either. He’s going to be realistic.

A team that wears pinstripes already made a mistake with their shortstop. Now the Phillies have their turn to get a deal done with theirs.

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2011 Philadelphia Phillies: A Bad Team with the Best Record in MLB

In politics, they say that “perception is reality.”

Fortunately, they do not say this in professional sports, because if they did, the Philadelphia Phillies would be in real trouble.

Take, for example, a conversation I had with a Philadelphia friend named Josh and a non-Philadelphia friend named Scott while I was in New Orleans for the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival last weekend. 

Scott and I love obscure baseball t-shirts, so while in town I presented him with a “Philadelphia Phillies Opening Week” t-shirt, which had been a give-away at Citizens Bank Park during the first homestand of the season. Scott, a lifelong Cubs fan, put on the shirt and said “it feels strange to wear the t-shirt of a winner.” 

Then we had the following amusing exchange:

Me: “Wanna see something funny?”

Scott: “Sure.”

Me: “Hey Josh, how do the Phillies look this year?”

Josh: “Oh, we’re so screwed.”

Scott: “Wow.”

Now, from where I sit, Josh’s take on the Phillies is pretty consistent with what Philly fans and sports radio talkers seem to think about the 2011 incarnation of the Fightin’ Phils: That despite the amazing rotation, the bullpen is bad and the offense is anemic and even if Chase Utley comes back, we’ve got problems.

But is this fair? Are losing perspective? Are our expectations a bit high?

Forget fair; is it even true?

Never mind the fact that the Phils have the best starting rotation in baseball, and Vance Worley appears ready to be a great major league pitcher. Never mind the fact that, with the exception of Raul Ibanez, most of the Phillies’ hitters are having better seasons than they did a year ago. Never mind the fact that the Phillies sell out every game while the other four teams in our division struggle to turn the stiles.

Perhaps the best indicator of just how skewed our perspective is lies in this tasty little statistic:

The Philadelphia Phillies currently have the best record in baseball.

Perspective can be a funny thing in sports.

Right now in Kansas City, they’re dancing in the streets because the Royals are two games over .500 and in third place in the division. In Pittsburgh, optimism is through the roof because the Pirates are one game under .500 and in third place in the division.

Meanwhile, Orioles fans are ecstatic just to be ahead of anybody, let alone the Boston Red Sox, in the second week of May.

But back here in Philadelphia, the local faithful are phreaking out because the Phillies have merely won two out of every three games.

Do not misunderstand me: I get it. I understand the consternation. This is a once in a lifetime team, and we have gone figurative (and maybe literally) “all in” on this 2011 squad which seems to be showing signing of stress.

With injuries to Chase Utley, Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt, our offense seems overmatched, our bullpen is a real balancing act and our rotation is showing cracks where we did not expect them.

At the same time, though, one has to wonder whether Philadelphia fans shall ever be happy. This is the city, after all, that absolutely loathes Andy Reid, a man who has almost literally had nothing but success in Philadelphia. 

One of the city’s loudest voices, Angelo Cataldi, declares that it is time to run Andre Igoudala out of town after the Philadelphia 76ers—a team that defied odds and overachieved by even making the playoffs, had the audacity to lose to the Miami freakin’ Heat in the first round of the playoffs.

And now the Phillies merely having the best record in baseball is leaving Phillies’ fans disappointed and listless.

Of course, the reason that “perception is reality” in politics but not in sports is that in politics the voters actually get to vote based on how they perceive the country to be doing or their elected officials to be performing. 

In sports, though, the fans do not get to vote, which is a good thing, because if Phillies’ fans were allowed to vote based on their perception of reality, the Phillies might be out of office in a hurry.

Which would be quite the outcome for the best team in baseball.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The 10 Worst Teams in Franchise History

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 18-consecutive losing seasons, an all-time mark.

As unbearable and agonizing as this is for Pirates fans, the Philadelphia Phillies had a 31-year stretch from 1918-1948 that defied logic.

In those 31 years, the Phillies had just one winning season (1932). And even that year they finished just 78-76.

Just think about that for a second…31 years of consistent awfulness!

They lost 100 games 12 times, and had a five-year stretch of 100-plus defeats from 1938-1942.  Remember, they played just 154 games back then.

Their compiled record, 1,752-2,941, was a winning percentage of just .373.  In today’s 162-game schedule, that’s an average-record equivalent of approximately 60-102.

At least there were two teams in Philadelphia back then for fans to choose from.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 6 Bullpen Arms to Target in a Trade

The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a rare hot start to begin the season. They have suffered several injuries to pitchers already this season, which raises concerns for later in the season.

A strong bullpen is essential to make a run in the playoffs. With Brad Lidge out for an undisclosed amount of time, Jose Contreras on the DL and guys like Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero having injuries in the past, the Phillies could be looking for some insurance to anchor the bullpen.

Here are six trade targets that could supply some much-needed depth in the bullpen.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins: Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson

Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson are widely considered two of the best starting pitchers in the National League, and it isn’t hard to see why. Through a little more than a month of the 2011 season, they’ve dominated National League opponents, going a combined 8-2 with an ERA of just 1.94 in 14 starts. Tonight, they’ll square off for the fourth time in their careers as the Florida Marlins host the first place Philadelphia Phillies.

Though it’s only the second week of May, the Cy Young debate has already started among baseball faithfuls, and the lead candidates are the guys we’re discussing right here. With Adam Wainwright on the shelf, the field has narrowed to Halladay, Johnson and World Series Champion Tim Lincecum, who isn’t off to quite the same start the first two are.

Now 34 years old, Halladay has rejuvenated himself with his move to the National League last season. After dominating the American League East for years, Halladay took his talents to the more pitcher friendly National League East, and he has certainly dominated.

After taking home the Cy Young Award last season, Halladay is off to another Cy-worthy start, already boasting a record of 5-1 for the Phillies through a month and some change into the season. At 2.19, the Phils’ ace holds the fifth best ERA in the National League, but his advanced stats tell the real story of just how good he’s been through the first month.

His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), is the best in baseball at 1.49. Though he often claims he is not a strikeout pitcher, he’s certainly contradicting himself quite a bit by punching out more than nine batters per nine innings, and walking less than two. He’s given up just one home run this season, and boasts a WHIP of just 0.98. All of those statistics help culminate in a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rating of 2.5—also the best in baseball among starting pitchers.

With numbers like that, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Halladay winning the Cy Young—but not so fast. Marlins’ ace Josh Johnson isn’t going to let him run away with the title. He’s been a huge part of the Marlins’ early season success, and if they’re going to make a postseason run, he is going to be a huge part of it.

Though he hasn’t won many decisions, Johnson has kept the Fish close in just about every game he has started. Coming into play on Tuesday, he posted a record of 3-1 with a minuscule ERA of 1.68—second best in the National League to Jair Jurrjens of the Atlanta Braves, who has made two fewer starts.

Like Halladay though, some of these basic stats don’t do the Marlins’ ace any justice. While ERA can present a false result in gauging a pitcher’s success, his FIP of just 2.23 supports the notion that he’s been very, very good this season. He is punching out the opposition at a rate of just over eight per nine innings and walking less than three on the same scale. Like Halladay, he’s allowed just a single home run and the opposition is barely touching him—coming into play Tuesday, they were managing to hit just .158 against him, helping him to a WHIP of 0.85 and a WAR of 1.6.

As I said above, this will be the first time this season that the two will square off, but not the first overall. Halladay and Johnson have been pitted against one another three times in the past, with Johnson coming out on top twice, but Halladay making history.

Back in 2006, when Halladay was a member of the Toronto Blue Jays and Johnson was just breaking into the league, the Fish took on the Jays in interleague play, and the two squared off for the first time. Halladay wasn’t his usually dominate self, allowing four runs in six innings, and was bested by the young Johnson who allowed just a single earned run through five-plus innings of work.

Now a member of the Phils’, Halladay opposed the Marlins several times last season and was pitted against Johnson twice, with one start being significantly more memorable than the other. The first time the two met was in May, when the Phillies traveled to Miami to square off with the Marlins. Halladay faced 27 Marlins that day and retired all 27 of them, recording the second perfect game in the history of the Phils’ franchise.

Later on that season, however, as the two squared off once again, Johnson had his revenge, shutting the Phillies out and besting a good Halladay, who allowed just one run in eight innings of work.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011 will be the fourth time that these two dominate starters match up in their careers, and more than likely, far from the last. It’s very rare that a game in early May is seen as significant, but a Halladay vs. Johnson duel is far from just the best pitching match-up on the docket. This could be a significant match-up for both the Phillies and the Marlins.

For the Phils’, they’re sending the ace of aces to the mound to try and pad their lead in the National League East to a comfortable four games over those pesky Marlins. From the Marlins’ perspective, falling behind four games is never a good sign, and they’d like to stay close behind the arm of their ace.

So if you want to keep an eye on the early Cy Young race, this is the game to watch. As the Fish host the Phils’ for Game 2 of this three game set, we wonder—will the veteran Halladay show us why he’s the reigning Cy Young by returning to the site of his perfect game, or will the young gun Johnson show us that the Marlins are not to be taken lightly this year, forcing the Phils’ to look over their shoulders while in first place?

One thing is for certain—this is a game that any fan of the sport absolutely can not miss.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Does Anyone Else Miss Mike Sweeney Yet?

There are, I’m certain, many readers out there that will not even read word one of this article—largely because they believe that Mike Sweeney made no impact with the Phillies last year and that, moreover, he is done as a player.

While it is absolutely, irrefutably true that Sweeney is far past his prime, I do not believe him to be past his value to a ballclub. 

Sweeney retired on March 25 of this year, but I do not believe there is any doubt that, had he been signed even to a league minimum contract by the Phils, he would have been back in red pinstripes this season. 

What is the big deal about Mike Sweeney, you ask?

Well, first off, the guy can still hit the baseball and can still occasionally hit it out of the park. He would have made for a decent right-handed pinch hitter with some pop. 

Having said that, there are plenty of guys out there who, at this point, can hit just as well, if not better, than Mr. Sweeney.

So, why am I writing this article?

Have you ever seen a player so excited to be a member of the Philadelphia Phillies?

I’ve been watching this club for 33 years and I’ve never, ever seen somebody so happy to be playing professional baseball in Philadelphia.

That kind of enthusiasm is contagious. Many of our core group of players are, though competitive and intense on the field, more of the laid-back, nonchalant, “brush it off” type of attitude.

Don’t get me wrong, they are professionals in almost every sense of the word, but as many of the greats used to say, “You have to have a lot of little boy in you.” 

And that, I contend, is Mike Sweeney. 

This guy is a former star slugger, a five-time American League All-Star and a player that put up some seriously immense numbers while playing for a perennial loser in Kansas City for over 10 years. 

The first time Sweeney had ever been with a winner was last season with the Phillies, and we could certainly tell. When he hit his first home run as a Phillie, he came into the dugout and started hugging his teammates. 

This is what baseball is supposed to be about. 

Oh yes, the guy also happens to be a grizzled vet, who, aside from actually winning with his team, has experienced just about everything in his long career. Combine that with a youthful exuberance and you’ve got yourself one hell of a bench player. 

Now, I know that there will be those who simply cast this article aside, or even rip it to pieces, because, let’s face it, Mike Sweeney is no longer a star. Hell, he’s not even an everyday player anymore. 

There will be those who criticize my use of this valuable space to even discuss a guy who is not even on the team anymore. This type of fan is usually a numbers-only, fantasy geek who doesn’t truly know how this game is played and won. 

It is a team game, made up of individuals. As we all know, one bad apple can bring down an entire team, even a strong one. 

At the same time, one good apple can bring back a team’s will to win. 

I’ve been a diehard Phillies fan for over 30 years and aside from Chase Utley, my favorite player over this team’s last four years of success was, you guessed it, Mike Sweeney. 

When I saw Mike Sweeney play, or in the dugout during games, I would say to myself, “Now there is a guy that gets it. 

That’s what the game of baseball is all about.”

People actually made fun of me during the offseason when I’d ask daily if anyone had heard if the Phils had signed Sweeney. Even after Cliff Lee, I asked, “Yes, but did they resign Sweeney?” 

Sometimes a player is about more than numbers. Sometimes a player is even about more than what he does when he is playing.

You are all more than welcome to criticize this take. However, with the Phils spending such incredible amounts of money on their players, would it have been such a stretch to go the league minimum on a guy that would bring the invaluable energy and desire to the clubhouse?

Thanks for reading!

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Ryan Howard: Is the Phillies Star “Overrated” or a 2011 MVP Candidate?

Each season it seems that there are more and more Ryan Howard haters. “He strikes out too much, he’s a liability defensively, his power numbers are down” are all things that Philly Nation has heard since Howard broke onto the scene in 2005.

Let’s put this argument to rest right here and now. Ryan Howard is the key to the Phillies lineup and their success. It is no coincidence that the Phillies became the beasts of the NL East when Ryan Howard was given the everyday first basemen’s job.

The Phillies have the best record in baseball and they are missing a lot of key cogs to their team. As long as their starting staff keeps dominating the way they have been and Ryan Howard is anchoring the lineup, don’t expect much to change.

The big man is already one of the greatest baseball players in Phillies history as he has put up mind-boggling numbers. He has hit more home runs since entering the league in 2005 than any other player in baseball. Let’s shut-up the haters right now.

Here are ten reasons why Ryan Howard will win the 2011 MVP and is in no way “overrated.”

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Philadelphia Phillies: Who Was This Week’s Top Phillie?

The Philadelphia Phillies hosted two division rivals this week, and almost did what they had to do.

The good news: They scored 18 runs while sweeping Jayson Werth and the Washington Nationals. This was more than enough offense, given the fine pitching performances of Cole Hamels, Vance Worley and Roy Halladay.

Now, for the bad news: They ran into a hot Atlanta Braves team this past weekend, and only eked out five total runs in dropping two of the three showdowns.

The week’s action saw the Phils hang on to first place in the NL East with a terrific 22-11 record. But, Florida is only two back and those Braves—with their plethora of potent pitchers— lurk at only three-and-half back.

For the week, the Phillies scored 23 runs while yielding only 18. If you have been watching, that’s not too surprising. On the young season, their team ERA is 3.06, and they average 4.36 runs per contest.

So, in yet another pitching-rich (with mediocre offense) week, who are the leading candidates for my Top Phillie of the Week Award?

Let’s count down from No. 7 to this year’s proud (we hope) winner.

7. Jimmy Rollins: J-Roll looked more comfortable in his familiar leadoff position, and responded by batting .348 (8-for-23) with four runs and two RBI in the six games. Most importantly, he resembled a leadoff man this week, drawing five walks and only striking out once.

As such, he just edges out center fielder Shane Victorino, who hit safely in all six games. Victorino went 8-for-24 (.333) with three runs, five RBI and two stolen bases.

Sorry, Shane, but we need room for our pitching staff and another outfielder who came out of his coma this week.

6. Cole Hamels: Hamels started the week with a win and closed it with a loss, but pitched well enough to win both.

He yielded only one run on five hits in a complete game, 4-1 win over the Nats. Yesterday, Cole was charged with three runs on five hits in seven innings of service.

For the week, Hamels pitched 16 innings, giving up 10 hits and four earned runs (good for a 2.25 ERA). Even more impressively, he struck out 15 while only walking two batters.

5. Cliff Lee: This may seem like a sentimental pick, as Lee lost the only game he started, 5-0 to the Braves on Friday night. Sentimental? Let’s examine the numbers.

Lee gave up three earned runs on nine hits in seven innings—his fifth quality start in seven outings.

Against the Braves, Cliff struck out a remarkable 16 batters, nine of them looking. Some so-so defense did him in the third, an inning where he gave up those three runs. Interestingly, he struck out the side—all looking—that same inning!

For the season, the prize free agent is 2-3 with a 3.69 ERA. He has also fanned a MLB-best 60 batters against only seven walks. Tough luck and lack of support would be an understatement.

4. Kyle Kendrick: Kendrick got the start on Saturday night, matched up with Braves 20-year-old phenom Julio Teheran. One would not blame KK if he were not up to the task, as his previous eight appearances this year have been out of the pen (and none longer than three innings).

Kendrick picked up the win, pitching five innings of two-hit, shutout ball. He limited his walks to one, while striking out three.

3. Raul Ibanez: The veteran outfielder snapped out of his 0-for-438 (or whatever it was) slumber, and exploded against the Nationals. Raul went 10-for-22 (.455) with two homers, five RBI and four runs.

At .212, he still needs to remain hot (or go on a diet) to hit his weight, but the left fielder was batting a measly .154 prior to this week’s tear.

2. Roy Halladay: Is there any other Phillies player (and one can go back 20 years or so) of whom we take his excellence for granted?

Doc got the best of the Nats again, pitching seven innings of two-run ball in the 7-3 win. Big Roy struck out 10 while not issuing a free pass.

One of the beauties of the Phillies vaunted rotation is their amazing k/bb ratio. Doc and Lee may be the top two in MLB in that regard, and Hamels and Oswalt (who, hopefully, will return to the mound in a couple weeks) are also stingy when it comes to handing out free passes.

1. Our No. 1 spot this week goes to 23-year-old righty Vance Worley. Worley only threw six innings against the Nats, but earned the win while yielding only one run on four hits.

The Long Beach State product fanned seven and walked none. For his superb work, the man with an 0.75 ERA in two starts earns an uncertain immediate future with the team.

But, Vance, look on the bright side: In just six innings of work, you walked away with our fourth Top Phillie of the Week Award.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Cliff Lee Is Not Feeling the Love from Philadelphia Phillies Bats

While Phillies fans have certainly shown their support of Cliff Lee since his return, his teammates are a bit lacking in that department. In Lee’s last three starts, the Phils have scored a grand total of one run for him.

Friday night, the huge “zero” on the board amounted to a very odd outcome. Lee struck out a career-high 16 batters in the 5-0 loss to the Braves. This tied Steve Carlton for the most strikeouts over nine innings by a lefty in Phillies history.

The third inning was not great for Lee, as he allowed three runs. But aside from that inning, Lee was lights out, keeping pace with Derek Lowe who had a no-hitter going into the seventh.

But if you allow just three runs over seven innings, you are supposed to get a win, right? Sadly, that did not happen.

The most frustrating offense came in the seventh after Shane Victorino broke up the no-hitter with a single to left. Placido Polanco knocked a ground rule double, which as the ball hopped over the fence in center, actually prevented Victorino from scoring.

With two men in scoring position and no outs, the Phillies bats failed again. Lowe left the game with an injury and Eric O’Flaherty replaced him. 

Facing O’Flaherty should have been a relief after Lowe had mowed the Phils down in six straight innings. Instead, the next three batters, Ryan Howard, Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez, all struck out swinging. Not one of them could even make contact.

And that continues to be the Achilles heel of this team. These severe hot and cold streaks at the plate are going to catch up to the Phillies eventually. The team’s 21 wins behind a stellar pitching staff is covering the multitude of offensive sins right now. But that cannot last for long.

The Phillies bats will need to get serious very, very soon.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Alone in First, but Entering Atlanta Braves’ New World

The Phillies stand at 21-9, two games ahead of the Marlins, and four-and-a-half games clear of the Atlanta Braves—who come to South Philly tonight for the start of a three-game series.

Starting with tonight’s contest, the Phils will play 20 games in 21 days exclusively against teams with winning records.

It will be interesting to see what the standings will look like at the end of this 20-game stretch. As of today, the NL East looks like this:

Philadelphia Phillies    21-9

Florida Marlins            19-11

Atlanta Braves            18-15

Washington Nats        14-17

New York Mets           13-18

To most pundits, the biggest surprise of the division is the Florida Marlins. who are doing it mostly with great starting pitching (led by Josh Johnson, who is still 3-1, 1.68 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, even after getting hit around a little by the Cardinals yesterday). To their credit, the Marlins are also doing so despite a very slow start from superb shortstop Hanley Ramirez (.200, 1 HR and an OPS of .582).

Right behind them are, of course, the Braves—the team that many predicted would be the biggest obstacle to the Phillies capturing their fifth straight NL East title. For the first few weeks, Atlanta only got in their own way, but they are starting to jell and arrive at Citizens Bank Park riding the confidence of a five-game win streak.

The Braves are waiting for former Marlins all-star second baseman Dan Uggla (.211/.268/.383) to produce, and second-year star Jason Heyward has yet to explode, but they have a stockpile of great young arms that has carried them to a league-best 2.96 ERA.

In assessing the Braves’ pitching staff, you may wish to consider this: Opening Day starter Derek Lowe, who has always pitched well versus the Phillies (7-5, 3.17 ERA in 15 career starts) has the worst ERA of their top five starters at a respectable 3.71.

The other four Braves starters all have sub-3.00 ERAs in the early going, led by Jair Jurrjens, just 25, with a 3-0 record, 1.52 ERA and a WHIP of 1.01. He is every bit as hard to hit as his name is hard to pronounce and spell.

Tommy Hanson, 24, has gotten off to a 4-3 start, but has pitched even better than his record (2.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) indicates. Veteran Tim Hudson, coming off a one-hit shutout of the Brewers, is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP and Brandon Beachy, 25, is 1-1 / 2.98 / 0.97.

The Braves’ rotation, while not as celebrated as the Phillies’ own R2C2 (or their own Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-led groups of the ’90s), has the stuff to keep them in almost every game they play.

The Phillies, certainly, have gotten terrific pitching from their vaunted rotation this year, despite Joe Blanton’s ineffectiveness (and assignment to the Disabled List) and Roy Oswalt missing a turn for personal reasons.

Tonight’s starter, Cliff Lee, is winless in his last three starts, but has looked anywhere from good to dominating in four of his six starts this year. The veteran lefty is stuck on two wins (2-2) but his stats have been good:  a 3.66 ERA, a WHIP of 1,12 and his typically wonderful K/BB ratio of 44/6 in 39.1 innings.

Lee’s only poor outing of 2011 took place in Atlanta on April 8. He was shelled for 10 hits and six earned runs in a short 3.1 innings of work. In four career starts versus the Braves, Lee has yet to really solve them, carrying a 1-2 mark with a 6.98 ERA.

It would be an overstatement for me to write that a loss to the Braves tonight would signal a crisis for either Lee or the team. On the other hand, four straight starts without a win for their co-ace would be cause for at least minor concern.

Indeed, a win tonight (preferably, one earned by Lee) would get what appears to be a very difficult 20-game stretch off to an auspicious start.

In the next three weeks, the Phillies will do battle six times with the Braves, three times apiece with the Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, two apiece with the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies and three more with the AL West’s Texas Rangers.

These next six opponents—four of whom can make the postseason—have a combined record of 106-81, good for a .567 winning percentage, which is much better than they have faced in their first 30 games (a combined .464 percentage).

On the other hand, the Phillies have streaked to a MLB-best .700 winning percentage, despite missing Chase Utley, Brad Lidge and Domonic Brown for all 30 games, and seeing several other important players—including Carlos Ruiz, Jose Contreras and Joe Blanton—currently disabled.

To put all of this in perspective, I offer you baseball cliché No. 753: Baseball seasons are marathons, not sprints. Indeed, even after this 20-game stretch is in the books, there will be 112 more games to play in the regular season.

Even so, a win by Cliff Lee and an early lead of five-and-one-half games over the Braves, will look terrific tonight.

And then we can ponder what the standings, the starting lineup and the pitching rotation will (and should) look like on May 26.

 

Gold Notes – Update:

The first game of the twenty did not go well for Phillies Nation.

Derek Lowe gave up only two hits in six innings, which is all the Phillies got for the game.

Cliff Lee struck out 16 Braves, and only issued one free pass, but had one bad inning (three runs on three hits) which were sandwiched around striking out three batters looking. Wow!

The bottom of the seventh told the tale. Victorino singled to start things, followed by a long double by Placido Polanco that took an unfortunate hop over the fence, or it would have been a run-scoring double or triple. It should not have mattered, but reliever Ed O’Flaherty came in and looked like a prime Randy Johnson, whiffing Ryan Howard, Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez back-to-back-to-back.

Is Cliff Lee this year’s hard-luck pitcher?

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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