Philadelphia Phillies: Charlie Manuel’s Lineup Shuffle May Have Found a Winner

The Phillies batting lineup has seemingly been in a constant state of fluctuation so far this season.

Of the 64 games that the Phils have played so far this year, they have had 42 different batting orders, and that’s not including the pitcher’s spot.

Injuries have been one of the biggest reasons for all the change, but it goes deeper than that.

In the first 27 games of the year, Shane Victorino led off all but one of those games, while Jimmy Rollins was batting third.

The next 30 games would see Rollins leading off all but two of those games with Victorino batting second for the first 10 of those games before going on the DL. 

Placido Polanco started out the season in the two spot then switched over too the three hole until Chase Utley came back.

While all those changes were taking place, the first 40 games of the season also saw Raul Ibanez and Ben Francisco rotating out of the fifth spot behind Ryan Howard. 

Friday night’s game, No. 64 on the year, saw the debut of a lineup that the Phils have yet to use this year, but it resulted in seven runs, which they’ve only done twice in their last 30 games.

The lineup consisted of Rollins leading off followed by Victorino, Utley, Howard, Polanco, Ibanez, Dominic Brown, Carlos Ruiz and the pitcher.

It was only the 11th time in Polanco’s entire career that he has batted fifth.

The overwhelming consensus has been that the Phils need a right-handed power bat to protect Howard, and although Polanco would hit a Grand Slam in Friday’s game, he’s not considered to be much of a power threat. 

However, I think the team is at its best when it utilizes Rollins and Victorino’s speed at the top of the lineup and Utley and Howard at the three and four spot might as well be etched in stone.

So giving Polanco, the guy with the best batting average on the team, a chance to drive in more runs seems like a good idea.

The only change I’d make would be having Brown bat sixth, Ruiz seventh and Ibanez eighth. I’ve been very impressed with Dominic Brown’s ability to overcome all that spring training tinkering with his swing and his subsequent injury.

The way Charlie Manuel usually operates, it’s likely that he’ll trot this same lineup out for the next game, given its initial success.

I’m hopeful that this batting order might have some staying power, but then again, if it doesn’t, there are always 40,319 other combinations that might work better. Then again, math was never my strong suit, so you might want to check that number.

All in all, I’m fairly confident that the Phillies will find their groove with one of these lineups. Remember, as poorly as the offense has performed for the majority of the season, they still have the best record in all of baseball.

So sit back and enjoy the ride, Phils fans, because the bats will come alive, and when they do, the rest of the league is in big trouble.

Credit to baseballreference.com for these lineup numbers.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Examining the Struggles of Roy Oswalt

In the Phillies‘ fanbase, there appears to be a growing worry for Roy Oswalt. It’s a bit surprising to me, as the typical fan will primarily look at ERA in deciding how good a pitcher currently is, that he and his 3.05 ERA is a cause for concern.

Perhaps there’s still enough of those left in the dark-age that three wins and four losses is enough evidence of his struggles. Or last year’s fluky 1.74 ERA stint with the Phillies caused misguided expectations. Typically, the fans are off-base when judging a player using these out-dated stats, but this time, there are legitimate red flags surrounding Oswalt.

While his 3.05 ERA suggests he is having a good year, a 3.86 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA suggest some struggles. The latter of which is behind pitchers such as Mike Leake, Jeremy Guthrie, Doug Fister, Derek Holland, Jake Westbrook, Chris Volstad, Tom Gorzelanny and Chris Capuano. No one would confuse any member of that group as being an ace-caliber pitcher. Last year, his 3.35 SIERA ranked eighth among pitchers with at least 200 innings.

The main culprit in the worse xFIP and SIERA is the obvious drop in strikeouts. His 5.3 strikeouts-per-nine innings is a significant drop from his career 7.38. While only 56 innings can produce unreliable strikeout rates, hitters are indeed making more contact than at any point in his career.

Hitters are currently making contact 90.8 percent of the time in pitches inside the strike zone and 75.8 percent of the time in pitches outside the strike zone compared to 86.1 percent and 60.9 percent, respectively, in his career. In addition, he is getting less swing and misses than ever. His 7.0 swinging-strike percentage is down significantly from his 9.4 percent career mark.

A major cause for the worse contact percentages has to be his drop in velocity. Across the board, his velocity has dropped. From last year, his fastball is down an average on 1.2 miles-per-hour, his slider down .7 miles-per-hour, his changeup down .9 miles-per-hour, and lastly, his curveball is down a huge 2.7 miles-per-hour.

When you consider his previous back issues, his age, and distractions back in Mississippi, this year’s Oswalt probably won’t be nearly as good as we’ve previously seen. With the way it’s going, the Phillies will have a much harder decision on Oswalt’s team-option at the end of this year.

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MLB Rankings: 2011’s Top 10 Pitchers so Far

2011 has turned into the second year of the pitcher. In both the American and National league, pitchers have been shutting down hitters at an incredible rate. There are over a dozen pitchers that could post 10 or more wins before the all star break.

Strike-outs are up, hits are down and some pitchers’ ERAs are on the lower side of 2.00. As the push for a playoff berth starts to manifest, look for teams with the most pitching depth to be the ones fighting for a spot in October’s festivities. 

There are some new faces and some you have seen for many years. Here are 2011’s top 10 pitchers so far.

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Cha-Ching!: Ryan Madson’s Asking Price Rises with Each Successful 9th Inning

Baseball’s highest-paid closer earns $15 million per year.

The game’s best-rewarded setup man is making $10 million this year, but his contract is scheduled to pay him $25 million over the next two seasons (if he doesn’t opt out), bringing the annual value of the deal to just under $12 million per season.

The Phillies are paying Brad Lidge $11.5 million this season after paying him $12 million each of the previous two seasons, expecting him to be their closer through the life of the three-year extension he signed during his 2008 season of perfection that led the Phillies to the World Series championship.

As important as Lidge was to that championship, the work of Ryan Madson during and since cannot be disputed. At some point in the 2008 season it seemed as if Madson finally figured it out and became a lockdown eighth-inning reliever, the “bridge to Lidge,” as it’s been said.

Other than a few unsuccessful attempts to move into the ninth-inning role while Lidge was unavailable, Madson has been the Phillies’ best reliever since mid 2008. He might be the best reliever in the National League period, although I’m sure some fans in San Francisco could justify a case for their hotshot closer.

At the start of the 2011 season the Phillies front office and manager declared Ryan Madson unfit to close and named journeyman Jose Contreras as their closer. This move was puzzling, especially considering Madson’s spring and contract situation.

He pitched well in spring training, and logic would tell most Phillies fans that with Lidge opening the season on the disabled list, Madson would enter the season as the closer, especially since it might be the Phillies’ last chance to test out whether or not Madson can actually close in the major leagues before he enters free agency following the 2011 season.

Ryan Madson is earning $4.5 million this season, less than half all the pitchers mentioned above are, save Contreras. The three-year, $12 million contract he inked late in 2008 is coming to an end, and he’s set to test the free agent market this coming winter. But what will the market bear? Were the Phillies intentionally attempting to keep Madson tucked away in the eighth inning to keep down his potential salary demands? With Scott Boras representing him, it’s unlikely it would have worked anyhow.

No one is going to mistake Madson’s body of work for that of Mariano Rivera, perhaps the greatest reliever the game has ever seen. Therefore Madson does not deserve to be compensated on the same level Rivera is and has been. However, closers are better compensated than eighth-inning men, so therefore he has a right to ask for a contract of at least as much as Rafael Soriano makes, putting his salary demands in the range of $12 million to $15 million per season.

But how many teams would be willing—much less able—to pay closer-type money to an eighth-inning reliever? Not many, and the Phillies probably aren’t one of them with their already bloated payroll.

Ryan Madson has been a sensation this year. After getting off to a strong start as the setup man and then moving into the closer’s role, he has been lights-out dominant. Off to the best start of his career, Madson can begin counting the millions he will inevitably get once free agency starts—unless, of course, the Phillies can lock him up before then. (Which, of course, is unlikely considering his representation.)

The list of potential closers on the market this offseason is strong. Along with Madson and Lidge, both of whom will be free agents (barring a stunningly foolish move of the Phillies picking up Lidge’s option for 2012), and Soriano, who can forgo the remaining two years on his deal, the free agent market will be flooded with big names. Guys like Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero and Heath Bell can become free agents.

It’s likely the Phillies will be able to replace Madson with another proven ninth-inning man if they let him leave, but would it be the correct move? Madson undoubtedly will earn more than some names on the list. No team will pay Nathan what they will pay Madson as this point, who will be one of the better-paid free-agent closers in the offseason.

However, in the same breath, pitchers like Papelbon or Bell would be suitable replacements at similar costs, but each comes with his pluses and minuses.

Papelbon has been as dominant a reliever in the American League at times as anyone not named Mariano Rivera. However, there have been questions about his long-term effectiveness and whether or not he’s lost some zip on his stuff. Add in the fact that he’s been nearly impossible to deal with for the Red Sox front office and taken them to arbitration nearly every year, and I don’t see him as a fit for the Phillies’ style.

Heath Bell would be fun to have. He’s been closing for three years in San Diego and doing it well—and he HATES the Mets. Who better to have closing games than the one player in baseball who despises your team’s biggest doormat more than the fans themselves? But he’s also three years older than Madson, and the NL East is a tougher division than the West.

After the 2011 season the Phillies will have a lot of questions. Coming off the payroll will be Raul Ibanez, Jimmy Rollins, Lidge and potentially Roy Oswalt. It may seem like the Phillies will have a lot of money to play with, but Cliff Lee’s contract nearly doubles next year, Cole Hamels is in his final arbitration eligible year (another player they may need to lock up long-term) and there is no replacement for Jimmy Rollins in-house. Do they keep Rollins or, with their endlessly floundering offense, sign a replacement like Jose Reyes who will command big dollars?

Either way, the Phillies payroll will be stretched to its max again next year, and that means paying a top closer is going to be difficult. Any possible replacement they sign to supplement Madson who is going to be just as good will cost just as much. At this point it’s better to guarantee the money to the one who fits into your clubhouse, has proven himself in your city and has that flashy piece of jewelry he earned while pitching here.

Ryan Madson will not come cheap—especially with the way he’s been pitching this season—but four years and $52 million sounds fair for both sides. And why wait for the offseason, when another closer could ink a deal that ups the market for closers? The Phillies know what they have in Madson…get the deal done.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 4 Prospects the Phillies Should Hold onto at the Deadline

The Phillies have been very active at the trade deadline the last couple of seasons.  This has many fans speculating that Philadelphia will once again make a big move at the deadline.

I’m not as speculative.

The Phillies already made their big splash by landing Cliff Lee in the offseason.  Due to that signing, they are a bit strapped for cash.

If a move is made, it will be nothing drastic like a Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin or Hunter Pence.

There’s no question that the Phillies need a bat, but it won’t be a high priced player.

(As a side note, I don’t consider Domonic Brown a prospect anymore.  He’s not going anywhere anyways) 

Charlie’s most memorable quotes

10 prospects to get excited about

Danny and his Cannon: Former Phillie Reflects on Life

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Ryan Howard’s Declining Numbers: Reason to Worry for Philadelphia Phillies?

Despite the fact that he hit his 13th home run of the season last night against the Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s hard to watch Ryan Howard and admit that he’s performing well in 2011.

Truth is, with a $125 million extension set to kick in next season, Howard is not playing like a superstar this year. Sure, it’s hard to lay blame at Howard’s feet for the contract itself.

After all, he wasn’t the one who had the final say in his negotiations (point to agent Casey Close).

He didn’t force the Phillies to give him that money. That decision lies at the feet of General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., and time will tell whether or not it’s worth it. Plenty has already been written about that contract, seeing that it was given to him last April, but it’s time to face the facts.

Howard is not a superstar player, and it’s hard to imagine a world where he is worth that money. In fact, he’s become downright frustrating to watch this season.

Where has the power gone? More importantly, where has the patience gone? A 15.3 percent walk rate in his MVP year in 2006 and a 16.5 percent walk rate in 2007 has dipped to just 9.7 percent this year after a dismal 9.5 percent last year.

He often looks confused at the plate, not more evident than the past few nights at Citizens Bank Park. In what world should we be happy with someone who has a .325 on-base percentage and has hacked at pitches in the next county over the last few games? How can we be happy that he has an .803 OPS, a year after he posted a career-low .859 OPS in 2010?

It’s not a shock that he is on the decline. At 31 years old, Howard isn’t getting any younger. The Phillies are getting old quickly, and they know their time to win is right now.

That being said, Howard is such a key portion for the team’s future, with an extension yet to kick in that runs through 2016, with a team option for 2017.

How could a player with a Rookie of the Year in 2005 and MVP in 2006 be fading so fast? Is it that easy? Is he gone forever?

Not likely. May was a very ugly stretch for Howard, when he posted a .208/.317/.434 slash line. June has started no better, even with Howard hitting a homer last night. More alarmingly, he has hit .225/.271/.325 against left-handers, making him all but useless against southpaws.

He is yet to hit a home run against a lefty this season. Therefore, there are certainly reasons for concern. As Howard has gotten older, pitchers have made adjustments. It appears he has been unable to make them himself. He still has a .291 BABIP this season, so throw out most of the arguments that the defensive shift is taking away from his numbers.

The adjustment numbers are staggering. In 2009, Howard posted a 1.064 OPS against a starting pitcher in his third at-bat of the game against them. In 2010, it was at .904.

How about this season?

In his third at-bat against a starting pitcher this year, his OPS is .464. Yes, you read that right. He is 6-for-43 with five walks against a starter in his third at-bat in a game against them this year. The adjustments are being made on one side, but Howard is not adjusting on his end.

Yes, the .161 BABIP might have something to do with that, but the .255 on-base percentage is appalling.

He is also essentially utterly failing to hit the ball the opposite way, something he did so well earlier in his career. He appears to be trying to pull everything, and he’s pulling everything all right, directly into the shift. He’s almost become predictable at this point, and that’s not a good thing.

The shift has become a serious weapon because he fails to hit the ball to left field often enough anymore.

His career is far from over. Let’s understand that. And, a lot of the statistics, despite the negative mood of this very article, say that Howard will probably bounce back eventually. After all, he had a .911 OPS in April and drove in 27 runs, looking like one of the best players in baseball.

He is going through a bad stretch right now, as is the entire Philadelphia offense, and this may be a bit of a reactionary opinion.

That being said, he isn’t even in the discussion anymore as one of the best first basemen in baseball, and that’s troubling. It’s likely more frustrating to many Phillies fans, knowing that they could be watching the decline of Howard even before the lengthy and costly extension kicks in next April. 

He needs to be more patient. He needs to take more pitches. He needs to not be afraid of hitting the ball the other way. The numbers show that Howard has just eight opposite field hits this season. In his MVP campaign in 2006, he had 38. He’s far off the pace, and that is a bad sign.

When Howard is hitting the ball the other way, he is very dangerous. Teams have to change their shifts around, and he becomes less predictable.

Right now, it will be more of the same if he cannot make the adjustments.

On the bright side, his luck will likely improve in terms of home runs, as just 18.6 percent of his fly balls are home runs this season (his career mark is at 29 percent). That being said, it’s not always about the home run ball for Howard.

There’s a long way to go in the 2011 campaign. It’s only June 9, and Howard has plenty of time to turn this around. Plenty of people will be able to forgive his poor performance in May and June if he comes up large in September and October, myself included.

Throw the contract out the window and look at what Howard is doing. It’s not fun to watch on most nights when he’s struggling. If he is able to flip the switch though, opposing pitchers will have a lot on their plate.

For their own sake, the Phillies can only hope that switch is flipped sooner rather than later.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Charlie Manuel’s Squad’s Biggest Trade Needs

No matter how hot a team is, there is always room for improvement.

The Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball, but there are definitely players out there who could be very useful and valuable down the stretch.

Among the low-lights of the Phils this season are all of the injuries: Chase Utley, Brad Lidge, Jose Contreras and Shane Victorino, to name a few.

Players have stepped up, but I do not believe that they can rely on those players everyday.

There is a big field out there and the Phillies have a lot of possibilities to work with this year. 

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2011 MLB Draft: Grading the Phillies First 5 Picks

With Day 2 of the draft winding down, we can get a feel for what most teams were looking for.  Marti Wolever, the Philadelphia Phillies Director of Scouting, said that they were looking for some power bats, catchers and that he wanted to shore up the infield.  

Well, they stuck to that plan for the most part.  In their first five picks, three of them were infielders.  The other two being a left-handed pitcher and a heavy hitting outfielder.  

A lot of people may not know much about these kids.  And they are kids, seeing as how the first two picks were directly out of high school.  With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at how the Phillies did in their first five picks.

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The New Cole Hamels: 5 Factors That Have Made Him so Successful in 2011

Does anyone remember Cole Hamels’ 2007 season? It was arguably his best season as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies, earning a career best 15-5 record with a 3.39 ERA tagging close behind which gave Phillies’ fans more than enough reason to immediately fall in love with the kid.

The following year in 2008 wasn’t as spectacular in the win/loss column, but that ERA came down even lower to 3.09, and of course, Hamels did go undefeated n the postseason which included the World Series.

In 2009, however, Hamels seemingly hit a rough patch.

His season ended with a blow .500 win/loss record (10-14), his ERA ballooned to 4.34 and there were even times when Hamels couldn’t get any run support at all.

This was all compounded by the Yankees doing a number on him in the World Series that year, too.

2010 was an improvement, but not exactly what everyone expected the season to be as Hamels went 12-11 with a 3.06 ERA.

The point to mentioning all of this is simple: Cole Hamels has always been a staff ace on the rise, but sort of lacking in certain departments to elevate him to the next level permanently.

Well all of that has changed in 2011, and today we’re going to look at some of the factors that has helped in that accomplishment.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Looks Like Jimmy Rollins Could Be Headed to the DL

According to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has stated after an MRI on Jimmy Rollins knee, doctors have found “a pretty significant bone bruise.”

Just when the Phillies thought their everyday line up was finally going to get some reps together an a unit, BAM, another one goes down.

It is almost comical the way the Phillies core players have been dropping like flies. Ryan Howard also blasted a ball of himself and limped back to the dug out after one of he many strike outs in last nights game.

More on Jimmy’s status will be determined in the next day or two, but look for Jimmy Rollins to take a short stay on the DL. Jimmy has been mentioned he does not believe he has to go onto the DL, but he is clearly not able to play, or available to pinch hit.

It’s better for the Phillies if he takes some time and gets the knee to 100 percent.

Jimmy Rollins is having a modest season so far, .268 BA, three HR and only 18 RBI.  His power number and RBI total are significantly lower than he career average.

He does have 14 SB so far this and the Phillies would like his legs to be healthy because he is not contributing to the offense in any other way. Jimmy Rollins is running out of time to prove he still is an elite player.

Jimmy Rollins may want to fight through this injury, remember he is in a contract year. Without a big season for Rollins, he will have to take a significant pay cut when he hits the free agent market.

Jimmy will have to turn it around quick, Shane Victorino is doing an excellent job in the lead off role and is likely to replace Jimmy as the Phillies go to lead off hitter.

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