Phillies Trade Rumors: Why They Should Not Overpay for Astros’ Hunter Pence

Many people in Philadelphia are fascinated by the allure of adding the Houston Astros All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence. He certainly fills the need of an everyday right-handed, corner outfielder. But the package many people are willing to give up is exorbitant.

I’ve heard some people willing to give up Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., Vance Worley and a top prospect or two. That is extreme and unneeded. Domonic Brown and a mid-level prospect may be even too much for Pence. There are too many other, cheaper options available who can provide just as serviceable of a performance, assuming they are correctly utilized by Charlie Manual. Even at 28 years old, there are future warning signs of him as a player.

Sure he is under team control for two more seasons, and is relatively cheap this year, but his salary will certainly raise in those next two years under arbitration. Once he is a free agent at 30 years old, then what?

Do you give out another large contract to a player past his prime and be in the same predicament of a team full of older players continuing to regress?

There are signs of his regression already, despite being in his prime years. Even though he’s coming off three consecutive 25-homer seasons, his power has been trending downward since his rookie year. His decrease in doubles and triples each season is an example, as is his isolated slugging.

Year	Isolated power
2007	.217
2008	.197
2009	.190
2010	.179
2011	.166

Consistent trends are alarming. There could be a couple reasons for this consistent drop, and neither are good. Either he is one of those rare, early bloomers who have their best years as a younger player, before the typically prime years, before fading off. Or it could be his increasing penchant for chasing balls outside the strike zone.

Year	Outside Strike Zone Swing %
2007	29.8%
2008	31.1%
2009	26.4%
2010	33.5%
2011	36.0%

This is not a good trend. Among Phillies’ regular players, he’d be chasing the most balls outside the strike zone with the exception of Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez. It is certainly plausible, chasing at all these bad pitches, has produced more, weaker hit balls. His career high in strikeout rate this year is another culprit of this.

There will be those out there yelling about how good his .318 average is. Looking deeper, it has been significantly aided by good luck. His .381 BABIP is over 50 points higher than his career norm. On ground balls, his BABIP, this season, is an unsustainable .347.

For comparison’s sake, the league average is .234. And his speed is nowhere close to that of players like Ichiro and Jose Reyes, who can beat out more ground balls for singles than other players. But even they don’t have career marks close to .347.

He also does not hit left-handed pitchers that much better, if at all, than others rumored to be available. Over his career, Pence has been a relatively low-split hitter.

Against lefties, for his career, he’s posted a .359 wOBA with a 120 wRC+. Against righties, he’s posted a .354 wOBA and a 117 wRC+. And ironically, this year, those numbers have reversed, posting a .379 wOBA versus righties and a .336 wOBA against lefties. Here’s how the other available right-handed hitters fare against lefties:

Player	Career wOBA(vs. LHP)	Career wRC+(vs. LHP)	2011 wOBA(vs. LHP)	2011 wRC+(vs. LHP)
Jeff Francoeur	.353	114	.421	168
Melky Cabrera	.302	81	.316	96
Josh Willingham	.377	131	.334	114
Michael Cuddyer	.377	132	.485	215
Carlos Beltran	.381	132	.357	129

The more prudent decision would be forgoing the steep price of Pence in favor of either Francouer, Willingham, Cuddyer or Beltran. With Francouer, Willingham and Cuddyer, you can simply platoon them when needed without sacrificing as many at-bats for Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr.

Not only will the Phillies have to give up less for any of those players, but they will not be stuck with the pressure of giving Pence, who will be past his prime by the time he hits free agency, another large contract.

The most I’d give up for Pence would be one of their better young prospects, with the exception of Cosart, and another mid-level prospect, such as Cesar Hernandez or Domingo Santana.

Another deal I would not mind would be an overvalued Worley, John Mayberry Jr. and a low prospect such as Matt Rizzotti. Trading Domonic Brown would be a huge mistake, in my opinion.

And for those on the opposite thinking of the spectrum, Ed Wade will not take Ibanez, Lidge, Baez and Kendrick for Pence.

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