NL East: 10 Bold Predictions for the Outcome of the Division

The baseball season has reached its midpoint, and the NL East is for the most part turning out as expected.

The Phillies lead the division with the Braves closely tailing, and the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals are also fair contenders if they manage to improve in the second half.

I think it is safe to say the NL East is the most competitive division in the MLB.

In this article, I will explain ten bold predictions I have for the outcome of this division.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves Series Will Disappoint, Not Preview NLCS

You want to get pumped for Phillies–Braves tonight, the first of a three-game tilt before the All-Star break. But you can’t.

You tell yourself it’s replete with consequence. At least that’s what the National League East leaderboard is hinting.

But it doesn’t matter. Apathy ought to be abound.

This series couldn’t mean less.

At its simplest, these aren’t the teams you’ll see in August. Injuries shelf Phillies Placido Polanco and Shane Victorino (among Roy Oswalt and the docket of beat-up relievers), and the Braves are less their top dealer, Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 1.87 ERA).

That makes for forgettable pitching matchups—Roy Halladay (11-3, 2.44) vs. Brandon Beachy (3-1, 3.23), Cliff Lee (9-6, 2.92) vs. Tommy Hanson (9-4, 2.62), Cole Hamels (10-4, 2.40) vs. Derek Lowe (5-6, 4.21)—and lopsided, yet empty, Phils wins.

These won’t be the teams you see come October, either, given how contenders are reshaped by time.

Like whether the bats can transcend mediocrity when the pitching proves substandard. And whether they can maintain it.

Like whether the arms can hang tough on nights they’re rattled. Gamesmanship during a 0-0 ninth inning is easy to conjure. What about in a 5-4 lead with two on and nobody out in the seventh after serving two home runs earlier?

That will prove this team’s telling moment(s). Not a snap shot, but a collage.

This team can change in an instant, if Ruben Amaro addresses their foremost issues: health, depth and hitting. That’s the real plot here—the undercurrent flowing beneath Citizens Bank Park—far more than the theatrics above.

Figuring that out might take three phone calls. But not three clips of nine innings.

As for how those go…

If the Phils blow it—three games, a lead in the division, an upswing they hoped to ride, if not pad, beyond the break—they still haven’t really lost anything. There’s more than ample time to recover, whatever that means.

Should the Phils get hosed tonight, it’s explainable, between Atlanta’s nine-of-10 games hot streak and their unfamiliarity with a scouting report phantom like Beachy. But that won’t be the first 15 minutes of Troy. No demoralization. No lingering effects.

Just one loss of seven on Halladay’s season.

Had this been September 26-28, the Phils last three regular-season games, all at Turner Field, it’d be a different story.

But it’s not. Antsy as you might be, it’s July, making this as much a summer hit as June’s slew of box-office flops.

That’s typical with baseball’s regular season, overdrawn and underwhelming. But not for a series like this—at least what it should have been, as hyped as the Red Sox series was.

Wasn’t exactly the World Series preview we wanted. Nor will tonight be an NLCS teaser.

Worst case scenario: the Phils fall to a half-game back, Atlanta’s lead if it sweeps, and thumb-twiddle until July 15 to make it up against the Mets, the perfect time for inflating youngsters’ confidence.

That might be the series’ only losable commodity: momentum from Vance Worley, Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Michael Martinez and John Mayberry Jr., all of whom the Phils lean heavily on. If Worley gets shellacked on another May 29 or Mayberry face-plants on a crucial play in the outfield or Bastardo and Stutes get buried, that could be costly.

But they’ve already shown resilience. Cue Worley’s bounce-back as evidence.

And Charlie Manuel has shown rationality as recently as Wednesday, when he didn’t pitch Stutes or Bastardo longer than an inning each, mindful of the situation: the setting (the road), their age (delicate) and the goal (lasting). They might stumble, but it won’t be because Manuel pushes them.

Plus, few of life’s pleasures rival whupping on the Mets, let alone a Jose Reyes- and David Wright- and Ike Davis-less Mets, let alone ones overachieving by way of 10 wins in their last 15. Nothing like kicking Frank Wilpon when he’s down. (Or up, to his ears in debt and legal filings and his own ill-fated commentary.)

At least that will be something to talk (or laugh) about, unlike tonight. Unlike tomorrow.

Unlike anything before September.

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Philadelphia Phillies: What Is the Most Important Trading Priority?

Now it is apparently being reported the Phillies might trade for infield help.

While I agree the Phillies have been rather injury-stricken in the infield, it has been reported the Phillies basically need to trade for every position.

In the past week, they have been rumored to have expressed interest in Heath Bell, a relief pitcher; Juan Rivera, one particular outfielder although they have looked at others as well previously; and now they are looking at infielders.

What are the Phillies going to do?

I think that the most pressing need is still in that gap of a right-handed hitting outfielder.

Raul Ibanez has been having a difficult year in left field (according to FanGraphs, he has the lowest Wins above Replacement of any outfielder in Major League Baseball this season), and Domonic Brown has been somewhat streaky this season.

I am not saying the Phillies should necessarily replace either of these two right now, but I do think a right-handed bat in the outfield would help relieve the problem the Phillies have against left-handed pitching.

While the Phillies are having injury problems in both the bullpen and the infield, those positions will be able to heal and be solid again.

Chase Utley is on his way to recovery, and Placido Polanco will hopefully be able to shake off his back spasms.

The missing pieces of the bullpen are due to come back soon as well, and in the meantime the bullpen has been solid, anyway.

Obviously, there is always room for improvement, but I think that the Phillies should not worry as much about the infield.

The best move the Phillies can make right now is to keep focused on improving the outfield with a right-handed bat.

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MLB Power Rankings: The Top 5 Candidates for NL Cy Young in 2011

The 2011 MLB season is more than halfway over, and while we still haven’t quite reached the All-Star Game, it’s definitely not too early to start looking ahead to the postseason hardware.

Last week, I took a look at the five best choices for AL Cy Young to date. Today, we turn our attention to the top pitchers in the National League.

The Cy Young is always one of the most contentious end-of-season awards because of the intense controversy surrounding pitching statistics.

Many voters are still stuck on the idea that pitchers’ wins and losses are accurate reflections of talent instead of measuring the strength of his team’s bullpen and the opponent’s lineup and that luck in ERA always evens out over the course of a full season. Meanwhile, there are plenty of sabermetrics fans who quote esoteric acronyms without fully understanding what they mean.

Here’s how my NL Cy Young ballot would look if the season ended today.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Best Seasons in Franchise History

The Philadelphia Phillies continue my series whereby I compose a 25-man roster of the best seasons in franchise history. Despite being one of baseball’s oldest teams, the Philadelphia Phillies were wildly unsuccessful for the vast majority of their history, not winning a World Series until 1980 and only recently becoming a power-house in the National League with four division titles, two pennants, and a world title in the last four years. Because of this, many of these seasons are very recent. 

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MLB: Roy Oswalt and Each Team’s Biggest Underperformer of the First Half

Every MLB team has that one guy—sometimes multiple guys—year in and year out who underperform with regard to their expectations. That one guy can’t handle the pressure of playing in a big city like New York or just playing in the big leagues period.

Each team has had one underperformer in the first half of the 2011 season, someone who has either not lived up to expectations or someone who just doesn’t live up to what they’re being paid.

Let’s take a look at each team’s player who needs to pick it up in the second half to avoid some serious fan backlash:

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Philadelphia Phillies: Taking Another Look at the MVP of 1950, Jim Konstanty

People like to talk about six degrees of separation. People like to know how close they are to famous people, and since I am indeed a person, I can understand why.

So, imagine my surprise when I discovered because of a small-town newspaper sidebar the MVP of the “Whiz Kids,” Jim Konstanty, grew up in the same town that my mom’s side of the family is from.

This prompted me to the little bit more research into who Konstanty was.

This town—Arcade, New York—was not technically where Konstanty was born, but he that is where he played his high school baseball.

Because of his success as a two sport athlete, he continued his career at Syracuse University as both a baseball and basketball player while receiving his bachelor of science in physical education.

This is where his story gets really interesting.

He graduated college in 1939, but he spent a few years as a physical education teacher before he even got into minor league baseball in 1941. After a few more years in minor league baseball, he finally made it up to the Cincinnati Reds in 1944, but he then went to World War II the following year.

When he returned from the war, he had a few unremarkable years until 1950 rolled around. He joined what has been dubbed as the “Whiz Kids” featuring the likes of Robin Roberts, Richie Ashburn, and Del Ennis.

This amazing group would lead the Phillies to only their second World Series appearance to that point, and Konstanty was a large part of that success.

He came out of the bullpen and pitched in 74 games while pitching 152 innings. He managed to win 16 games while saving 22 (even though that wasn’t a statistic at this point in history, it can be determined by looking through the box scores) and posting an ERA of 2.66.

He made his one and only All-Star game in that season, but it was even more impressive when he was named the MVP of the National League, the Sporting News Pitcher of the Year, and the Associated Press Athlete of the Year.

Surprisingly, he also started game one of the World Series that year but was outdueled 1-0 after going eight innings and only giving up one run on four hits. He appeared in that World Series two other times out of the bullpen, but the Phillies were swept by the New York Yankees.

Although he was in Major League Baseball for six more seasons, he never regained the success that he had that one season. He retired after the 1956 season with a career record of 66-48 and a 3.46 career ERA.

Of course, who doesn’t love the story of a small town guy becoming a hero for their favorite team?

This was a miracle season for the Phillies and for their MVP who led them to play in their second World Series ever. They brought new life to Phillies nation even though it would be 30 more years until a World Series victory appeared.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The 7 Most Shocking Moments in Team History

There are some moments in sports that are so unexpected, so shocking that we can all remember exactly where we were when we heard the news.  The Philadelphia Phillies‘ signing of pitcher Cliff Lee this past off-season was certainly one of them.  It caught Phillies fans, even the Phillies manager, by surprise and was the talk of the baseball world. 

We can all remember where we were for that one.  I was watching ESPN reading the crawl on the bottom of the screen.  When I saw those words go by I thought I must have misread it so, thanks to the magic of modern technology,  I rewound the crawl and read it again.  Then I woke my entire household as I screamed over and over, “We got Cliff Lee! We got Cliff Lee!” 

(Feel free to insert your own story here.)

But there are other, perhaps lesser known, but even more shocking events in Phillies history.  More shocking you ask?  

Let’s just say that they include an unthinkable shooting, a home run that destroyed a city’s dreams and a collapse of epic proportions.

Buckle your seat belts as we count down the 7 most shocking moments in Phillies history.

Warning:  This is not for the faint of heart

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Could Get Even Better in the Second Half

Going into the final weekend of the first half of the season, the Phils hold the best record in baseball and a four game division lead.  They have built this record largely on the accomplishments of their lauded pitching staff, with the offense chipping in just enough.

Despite holding the best record in baseball by a healthy margin, there are some out there who believe the Fightins can get even better in the second half.  Count manager Charlie Manuel in with that crowd.  There have been no shortage of injuries and slumps that could have derailed this team along the way.  In many ways this team has overcome a lot of to achieve this record. 

Here is a look at five things the Phillies can reasonably expect to improve in the second half as they continue their march towards 100 wins.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Bullpen Management Their Key to the World Series?

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a fantastic first half of the season, dealing with both disappointment and the injury bug to come out with the best record in baseball. 

While three of their four aces have lived up to staggering expectations, one of the biggest surprises this year has been the success of the Phillies bullpen. It seems as if the only time the bullpen falters is when a starter is taken out early—in close games the unit seems to always get the job done. 

As of July 6, if you looked at the Phillies bullpen, it would seem as if you were looking at that of the Triple-A Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. Out of Juan Perez, Scott Mathieson, David Herndon, Danys Baez, Mike Zagurski, Andrew Carpenter, Michael Stutes, and Antonio Bastardo, only Herndon, Baez, and Bastardo were on the Phillies’ opening-day roster. 

And Herndon and Baez were regarded as mop-up guys. 

Stutes and Bastardo have been brilliant, but what about when the top guys get back? 

The biggest issue of the second half could be having too much of a good thing in the bullpen, with Charlie Manuel needing to get all of his guys innings. With the returns of Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and Jose Contreras looming, Manuel will have a very difficult task in getting the most success out of all of his pitchers. 

With the Phillies’ rotation, come playoff time middle relief should not be a huge issue. With four pitchers having great years—along with one proven closer—the Phillies’ chances could be determined by how Uncle Cholly manages the bullpen. 

If he pulls all the right strings, it gives the best team in baseball yet another strength.

If not, and his decisions mess with the team chemistry, it could prevent another parade on Broad Street.

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