Phillies Trade Rumors: Why They Should Not Overpay for Astros’ Hunter Pence

Many people in Philadelphia are fascinated by the allure of adding the Houston Astros All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence. He certainly fills the need of an everyday right-handed, corner outfielder. But the package many people are willing to give up is exorbitant.

I’ve heard some people willing to give up Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., Vance Worley and a top prospect or two. That is extreme and unneeded. Domonic Brown and a mid-level prospect may be even too much for Pence. There are too many other, cheaper options available who can provide just as serviceable of a performance, assuming they are correctly utilized by Charlie Manual. Even at 28 years old, there are future warning signs of him as a player.

Sure he is under team control for two more seasons, and is relatively cheap this year, but his salary will certainly raise in those next two years under arbitration. Once he is a free agent at 30 years old, then what?

Do you give out another large contract to a player past his prime and be in the same predicament of a team full of older players continuing to regress?

There are signs of his regression already, despite being in his prime years. Even though he’s coming off three consecutive 25-homer seasons, his power has been trending downward since his rookie year. His decrease in doubles and triples each season is an example, as is his isolated slugging.

Year	Isolated power
2007	.217
2008	.197
2009	.190
2010	.179
2011	.166

Consistent trends are alarming. There could be a couple reasons for this consistent drop, and neither are good. Either he is one of those rare, early bloomers who have their best years as a younger player, before the typically prime years, before fading off. Or it could be his increasing penchant for chasing balls outside the strike zone.

Year	Outside Strike Zone Swing %
2007	29.8%
2008	31.1%
2009	26.4%
2010	33.5%
2011	36.0%

This is not a good trend. Among Phillies’ regular players, he’d be chasing the most balls outside the strike zone with the exception of Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez. It is certainly plausible, chasing at all these bad pitches, has produced more, weaker hit balls. His career high in strikeout rate this year is another culprit of this.

There will be those out there yelling about how good his .318 average is. Looking deeper, it has been significantly aided by good luck. His .381 BABIP is over 50 points higher than his career norm. On ground balls, his BABIP, this season, is an unsustainable .347.

For comparison’s sake, the league average is .234. And his speed is nowhere close to that of players like Ichiro and Jose Reyes, who can beat out more ground balls for singles than other players. But even they don’t have career marks close to .347.

He also does not hit left-handed pitchers that much better, if at all, than others rumored to be available. Over his career, Pence has been a relatively low-split hitter.

Against lefties, for his career, he’s posted a .359 wOBA with a 120 wRC+. Against righties, he’s posted a .354 wOBA and a 117 wRC+. And ironically, this year, those numbers have reversed, posting a .379 wOBA versus righties and a .336 wOBA against lefties. Here’s how the other available right-handed hitters fare against lefties:

Player	Career wOBA(vs. LHP)	Career wRC+(vs. LHP)	2011 wOBA(vs. LHP)	2011 wRC+(vs. LHP)
Jeff Francoeur	.353	114	.421	168
Melky Cabrera	.302	81	.316	96
Josh Willingham	.377	131	.334	114
Michael Cuddyer	.377	132	.485	215
Carlos Beltran	.381	132	.357	129

The more prudent decision would be forgoing the steep price of Pence in favor of either Francouer, Willingham, Cuddyer or Beltran. With Francouer, Willingham and Cuddyer, you can simply platoon them when needed without sacrificing as many at-bats for Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr.

Not only will the Phillies have to give up less for any of those players, but they will not be stuck with the pressure of giving Pence, who will be past his prime by the time he hits free agency, another large contract.

The most I’d give up for Pence would be one of their better young prospects, with the exception of Cosart, and another mid-level prospect, such as Cesar Hernandez or Domingo Santana.

Another deal I would not mind would be an overvalued Worley, John Mayberry Jr. and a low prospect such as Matt Rizzotti. Trading Domonic Brown would be a huge mistake, in my opinion.

And for those on the opposite thinking of the spectrum, Ed Wade will not take Ibanez, Lidge, Baez and Kendrick for Pence.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Philadelphia Phillies Interested in Matt Kemp

Could the Philadelphia Phillies be in on the bidding for Los Angeles Dodger outfielder Matt Kemp? Kemp is a player who could fill the void in the line-up from the right side of the plate if the right ingredients are there for the Phillies.

Phuture Phillies, a blog dedicated to covering the Phillies prospects, tweeted innocently enough that the Phillies were in on Matt Kemp, although there have been no confirmed reports from the Phillies beat reporters on the subject. It seems a bit premature to go with the idea at this stage, but there is no question that the Phillies could benefit from being able to add Kemp to the roster.

Kemp enters Tuesday batting .313, is second in the National League in home runs (24, Lance Berkman leads the league with 25) and third in the National League in runs batted in with 72 (one behind Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard and Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder). Shane Victorino, who was activated from the disabled list Tuesday, is the only Phillies batter hitting over .300 entering game two of a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs.

Adding Kemp to the mix would certainly give the Phillies line-up a boost in the second half and likely in to the postseason.

More importantly, Kemp has been a durable player over the past few seasons. The Dodgers outfielder played all 162 games in 2010 and played in 159 games in 2009 and 155 in 2008.

If you are wondering about his postseason performances, the Phillies know just what he is capable of after facing Kemp in the 2008 and 2009 NLCS. Kemp’s NLCS numbers are much better than his NLDS numbers in those seasons, jumping from a batting average of .148 in the NLDS to .286 in the NLCS between the two seasons.

Kemp is owed under $4 million for the remainder of the season (presuming he has received half of his $6.95 million for the 2011 season), and the Phillies have already said on multiple occasions that they have maxed out their current payroll. The Dodgers are not likely to offer to pay for the remainder of his contract, considering the state of the organization right now.

The Phillies do have room in payroll ready to clear up after the 2011 season, which could allow some flexibility to bring Kemp on board now rather than try to lure him in during free agency. The contracts of Raul Ibanez, Roy Oswalt and Brad Lidge could all come off the books this off-season and Jimmy Rollins could be on the move as well if the team decides not to bring him back.

Kemp to the Phillies still looks to be a bit of a stretch for now, but Amaro has pulled some tricks before so nothing can really be considered out of the question with the trade deadline creeping closer.

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MLB Trade Deadline: Philadelphia Phillies Need to Trade for Hunter Pence

While the Philadelphia Phillies will be looking for bullpen help at this summer’s MLB trade deadline—as they do most seasons—their biggest weakness is their offense.

After being a feared lineup before last season the team’s offense has sputtered. It went missing in the NLCS against the San Francisco Giants and this season is 18th in all of baseball in home runs (81, a shame in its supposed hitter’s ballpark), 19th in OPS (.700), 21st in batting average (.248) and 22nd in slugging percentage (.379).

The man the Phillies should target is Hunter Pence, an outfielder with the Houston Astros.

Outfield is the position that the Phils could upgrade and Pence is a righty, which will help balance their lefty-heavy middle of the order (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez).

Pence is enjoying a great year. He has 11 home runs this year and 61 RBI and those totals would be third and second best on the Phillies right now. His .318 average would lead the team and he’d also be in the top few in on-base percentage (.359) and OPS (.843).

This season the Phillies have mostly used a right-field platoon of Dominic Brown and Ben Francisco. Combined, those two have hit 11 home runs and only 47 RBI. Add John Mayberry, Jr.’s 24 RBI and that total just eclipses Pence’s total by 11. And none of those three are hitting above .243.

It isn’t just his hitting that makes Pence the perfect fit in Philly, though. He’s a good fielder who has never committed more than six errors in a season, has a career fielding percentage of .986 when playing right field (he spent some of his rookie season in center field) and has a good arm. Pence also has good speed and runs the bases well (he would be fourth on the Phillies with seven steals and he hasn’t been caught stealing yet).

His contract situation is also suitable. He’s making a manageable $6.9 million this season and, more importantly, is signed through 2013. He won’t just be a rental player.

Having Pence would also let Brown develop on his own pace better this year with less pressure, as the rookie looks has struggled this year after missing the beginning of the season due to an injury.

The Astros should be sellers at the trade market, owners of the worst record in MLB (30-63). Word from Houston’s management is that they aren’t terribly interested in trading Pence, but that’s not to say the Phils don’t still have a chance to swing a deal.

Philadelphia and Houston are familiar trade partners. Astros general manager Ed Wade previously held the same position with the Phillies, and he has swung some nice deals with his old employer. Before the 2008 season he sent Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett to the Phillies and both played big roles in helping the Phillies win the World Series that year. Last season Wade shipped long-time Astro ace Roy Oswalt to Philly.

It’s not like the Astros haven’t received anything in return either. The Lidge trade netted them Michael Bourn, a speedy centerfielder who is enjoying a career year with a .287 batting average, 60 runs, seven triples and 35 stolen bases.

In exchange for Oswalt Houston received J.A. Happ, a solid middle of the rotation guy.

And while the Phillies farm system has been depleted over the past few years with trades for Joe Blanton, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Oswalt they still do have some young talent that would be available to move.

Brown came in the season as the Phillies top-ranked prospect. He would be a major league-ready prospect that the Astros could slide into the lineup immediately. Another young player on the Phillies major league roster that could interest the Astros is starting pitcher Vance Worley. He is 5-0 this season with a 2.15 ERA filling in for injuries on the pitching staff. When Oswalt and Blanton come back off the DL, however, he will most likely be the odd man out.

Other prospects that interest teams are first baseman/outfielder and slugger Jonathan Singleton (currently blocked at first base by Ryan Howard), catcher Sebastian Valle and pitchers Brody Colvin, Jarred Cosart, Jesse Biddle, Trevor May and Phillippe Aumont.

Pence may cost the Phillies more than some of the other available outfielders on the market—Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick and Jeff Francoeur—would. But look at those names. None of them have been more consistent throughout their careers than Pence. Francoeur leads those three in career batting average (.267) but doesn’t come close to Pence’s (.292). Their power numbers this year aren’t even that much different from Pence. Willingham and Francoeur have 12 home runs while Ludwick has 11 and all three have fewer RBIs.

Also, are any of those three really that much better than Dominic Brown? Pence is a significant upgrade, but the other three don’t improve the position that much more to merit making a trade.

The Phillies’ championship window is getting smaller and smaller with guys like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Halladay and Lee all in their 30s. Now is the time to take advantage of their talents by adding equally talented players to the roster to complement them.

Pence fits the bill. All other options are just cheap substitutes.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Shane Victorino’s Return Will Be Greatly Appreciated

According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, Shane Victorino is going to be activated tonight against the Cubs.

What will this mean for the Phillies?

The obvious answer is that one of the most dynamic players in the lineup will now be able to have his spot back.

In the 68 games that he played in, Victorino is batting .303 with nine triples, nine home runs and 13 stolen bases.

Even though he has played in fewer games, according to FanGraphs, Victorino is still the 11th most valuable batter in Major League Baseball in terms of Wins above Replacement.

According to that metric, Victorino is sandwiched between Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto. That is pretty impressive company especially considering that Wins above Replacement is a cumulative statistic that builds up as the year goes on.

Victorino has been comparable to these players while playing in fewer games

Why is Victorino so valuable?

Mainly, he plays an all around solid game with power, speed and defense.

He has hit double digits in triples and home runs the past two years and should do that again this year.

He has won a Gold Glove in each of the last three years.

The biggest implication of his return is obviously that John Mayberry Jr. will not start in center field anymore.

The other effect of this return is that Pete Orr was sent down to Lehigh Valley.

I like Mayberry a lot, but there’s no way that he would stop Victorino from taking his spot back.

With Orr going down to AAA, the Phillies have five infielders on the roster unless you count Ross Gload who has started one game at first base in which case there are six.

Although having only five seems a little bit thin, the Phillies have a very consistent lineup for the most part, so this move should not really hurt the Phillies either.

There are no negative side effects to Victorino’s return. He is a high-impact player who might be able to help the Phillies offense get a little bit hotter.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trade Rumors: Latest Buzz on Philly’s Trade-Deadline Moves

As the dog days of summer start to make the hours pass slower than molasses in the winter, the only thing hotter than the backyard grills will be the MLB rumor mill.

While many teams are fighting to get themselves in a position to make the playoffs, the Philadelphia Phillies have maintained the best record in baseball.

Even with the talent that the Philadelphia Phillies posses, the team looks to be a buyer as the trade deadline approaches.

There are a few pieces on the Phillies team that are overpaid and there are a few key prospects left in the system that could help bring in a necessary piece to make a great team even better.

As the trade deadline approaches, we have to prepare ourselves for a wild few weeks, and it may be the Phillies that make some of the biggest moves. You know the old adage: If it isn’t broke, add more pieces to it to make it better.

Check back for more on the MLB trade rumors for the Philadelphia Phillies as it comes, and check out Bleacher Report’s baseball page to get your fill of MLB.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Minor Grades Show Minimal Improvement, Empty Cupboard

The good news first: What’s actually growing in the Phillies farm system is rich and healthy and improving. According to Keith Law‘s midseason Minor League Top 50, RHP Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton have developed since May.

Cosart came in at No. 17, halving the field in front of him since the year began. Singleton measured at No .24, a marginal but notable three-spot jump.

Now for the bad news: That list has been hollowed since the beginning of the season, as players likely to expend their 2012 rookie eligibility (like Domonic Brown) were omitted. That undermines the seeming mass leapfrog that shot Cosart up 17 slots.

And for the obvious: That’s it for Philadelphia’s crop.

Other notable prospects like LHP Jesse Biddle, RHP Julio Rodriguez, C Sebastian Valle and OFs Aaron Altherr and Jiwan James, touted as the finest of the lower levels, did not make the cut.

Six teams had more farm system players on the list, with Toronto‘s four being the highest tally. The other five ahead of the Phils—Tampa, St. Louis, Minnesota, Kansas City and the Yankees—had three prospects apiece.

Division contenders weren’t among them, with the Braves having two, and Mets and Marlins one.

Milwaukee, Oakland and the Chicago’s have no Top 50 pipelining talent, according to Law.

That’s important to recognize: This is just one guy’s opinion.

Still, it is that of the most credible scout in baseball, and one who bases his opinions on copious amounts of film study and scout report reading/writing, and countless conversations with executives, coaches and scouts you haven’t access to.

In other words: Dude’s word matters.

As does this list.

Baseball men burn through stats and reports and opinions like Brian Wilson does patience. They’ll see this list, for sure.

The list doesn’t change much for the Phillies. They know the numbers. They’ve seen the talent. They have the plans.

But for the average, casual fan, this gleans a lot we didn’t know.

Listen: We’re more-than-versed in how thin the ranks are, and have been so long as Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt were brought in during deals that cleaned the farm system out. Save for the the other “Baby Aces” other suits, Brody Colvin and Trevor May, the team doesn’t have depth for reinforcement or dealing.

Singleton has been promising, but very Ryan Howard-esque, with a humble batting average (.280) and on-base percentage (.386) that you think his home runs (7) and RBIs (39) would compensate for.

Not sure they do. With 74, Singleton has already passed his 2010 total from Single-A Lakewood, and 35 games quicker. 

For those reaching for the “Clearwater presents tougher competition” card, note that the rest of his line is level. Almost the same average (-0.10), and OBP (-0.06), with slight dips from last year’s power numbers, 14 HR and 77 RBI.

For Singleton, the No. 1 first baseman, that’s fine—from a 19-year-old up-and-comer and possible Howard replacement, given that Singleton will crest at about the same time Howard’s deal finishes.

But for someone you might mull shopping in a Heath Bell and Ryan Ludwick deal, not so much. Not bad, just a little lacking.

As for Cosart, the No. 10 pitcher on the list (No. 9 righty), you can’t complain. He’s 7-7 with a 3.51 ERA and a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 17 games. You’d like that WHIP down—1.211 is a little high—but it could be higher.

Other notes:

Many believed the “Year of the Pitcher” was bound to go generational already. Of the 50 on this list, 68 percent were pitchers (22 RHP, 5 LHP). That’s likely a self-perpetuating cycle, with the league’s recent emphasis on pitching changing Law’s valuation system.

Still, it reflects a transition from the Steroid to Slinger Eras. Hope you’re a fan of two-hour games with as many runs…

Infielders accounted for only 11 players, with base position players getting two nods each, and five short stops. Five outfielders and four catchers also made the cut.

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John Mayberry, Jr., Giving the Philadelphia Phillies Options

John Mayberry was called up last week to take injured All Star center fielder Shane Victorino’s place on the roster.  The Phillies figured he would be a suitable enough defensive replacement, but nobody expected Mayberry to provide much offense. 

People may be thinking differently now.

In the Phillies’ Friday night return to action from the All-Star break, Mayberry batted in five of the Phillies’ seven runs.  The game before that, vs. division foes Atlanta, Mayberry had four RBIs on three doubles.  And earlier in the week?  Well, John went deep twice in Florida against the Marlins.

On Friday night, Mayberry had a clutch one-out, bases-loaded single in the second inning that knocked in the first two runs of the game.  His other three RBIs came on a two-out, bases-loaded double in the eighth inning of a 4-1 ballgame.  Those three runs put the Phillies comfortably in the lead

In his six starts replacing Victorino he is batting .363 (8-22) with 12 RBIs, five doubles and two home runs.  Not bad.  And certainly not expected.

This is an extremely small sample size and as such there is probably not a lot that can be glommed from it.  But one thing is for sure: He’s got some people thinking.

The Phillies could extend his playing time in the majors and give him some more opportunities to continue his hot streak.  From there he will either sink or swim and his fate will work itself out.  

With Placido Polanco on the DL, Pete Orr can be sent down to make room on the roster when Victorino returns on Tuesday of next week.  Mayberry can platoon with either Raul Ibanez or Domonic Brown (or both) depending on the pitcher.  The problem with this scenario is that you would be taking at-bats away from either Ibanez—who is equally as hot as Mayberry—or Brown, who seems to be just working himself into a groove.  Also, it remains to be seen whether or not Mayberry can continue his hot streak if he’s made to sit for any length of time.

The other benefit to Mayberry’s recent production is that other teams may be noticing.  It’s no secret that the Phils are poking around the market in search of several different pieces.  Could Mayberry be a chip to that end?  It would be rather strange if the Phillies traded a right-handed bat for another right-handed bat.  But of course they are looking for a more proven hitter with a history of success, which Mayberry doesn’t have yet.

Mayberry is showing a lot of promise.  He’s not a heralded prospect, he wasn’t one of Baseball America’s top whatever prospects, no one has mentioned him as Rookie of the Year (he’s technically not a rookie) and writers and television broadcasters rarely mention him.  In a nutshell, he’s not a “sexy pick” for anything.  But that doesn’t mean he can’t perform, produce and play. 

Hey John, if you’re reading this I want you to know: I’m rooting for you.  Go get ‘em.

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Five Right-Handed Bats Who Would Help the Philadelphia Phillies Down the Stretch

Anyone who has watched the Phillies this season knows the starting pitching has carried the team this year and while the Phillies could be just like the San Francisco Giants from last year and ride a no-hit offense to a World Series title, a right-handed bat would also go a long way. 

GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has gone on record as saying he will not be getting such a player, while manager Charlie Manuel has said he would love some help from the right side of the plate. The Phillies have a lefty-laden offense with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Domonic Brown, and both Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino as switch-hitters. 

John Mayberry, Jr. probably has the most power of any right-handed hitter on the team, but he’s also an incredibly streaky hitter who strikes out a ton, and he was demoted to Triple-A earlier in the season after struggling as an everyday player—although he has since rejoined the major league Phillies.

Ben Francisco has 15-home run power at best, but he’s just best suited as a pinch-hitter off the bench, and while both Placido Polanco and Carlos Ruiz are fine hitters, they’re not power hitters.

With that in mind, here are five hitters who would help the Phillies down the stretch.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ 10 Key Players This Season

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a great season so far. They have three aces, a strong bullpen and a good, but sometimes inconsistent, offense.

Like most teams, there are a few players that are really helping the team stay on top of the National League.

Domonic Brown and John Mayberry have been recently holding up the Phillies. Some others have done the same, and yet others have been holding up the team since the start of the year.

Here I’ll list the top 10 players that have been key in the Philadelphia Phillies success this season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 3 Ridiculous Statements After First Game Back

And what a game it was!  

Though it was only one game, and it was only against the New York Mets, a team that has already decided that they are sellers in this pre-trade deadline period—they traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday—that’s not going to stop me from sharing the three most important things I learned about the Philadelphia Phillies from last night’s win.

WARNING: Admittedly, I will be exaggerating and making rash statements based on limited evidence. But come on, you know you want to read it anyway. 

 

Rash Generalization No. 1:  The Phillies found their right-handed bat. (And Ruben Amaro, Jr. didn’t even have to spend a penny.)

He has driven in 12 runs in his last 5 games, 9 in his last two, including a career high 5 RBIs last night. When he was sent down to the minors last month, John Mayberry was told by Phils manager Charlie Manuel that he had to improve on his hitting against right-handed pitching, one big thing the Phillies have been lacking in their anemic first half offense.

You might say Mayberry took Charlie‘s words to heart. Eleven of those 12 above-mentioned RBIs have come against right-handed pitchers.

Advice to Charlie? Next time, tell Mayberry to improve on his home run hitting!

 

Rash Generalization No. 2:  Great pitching is contagious.

He is 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 11 starts. Cliff Lee? Roy Halladay? No. Oh, it must be Cole Hamels, then. Nope, not Cole either.

Vance Worley, the 23-yearold right-hander, filling in for injured Phillies starters Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton has virtually come out of nowhere to earn a spot in this ace-filled starting rotation.  

With Lee and Halladay both pitching in the mid-summer classic, helping the NL capture home field in the World Series, the Phils wanted to give them both the days off they missed.

So, after a brief return to the minors during the All-Star break, Worley was called on last night to kick off the three game series against the Mets. With the young rookie on the mound, the Phillies barely missed a beat.  

Worley pitched five and a third innings, allowing just one run in 3-hit innings last night. Other than needing to work on his pitch count so he can go deeper into games, he has been nothing short of terrific.

Advice to Charlie? Dust off that dugout bench next to Lee, Halladay and Hamels to make room for Kendrick and Blanton. It seems that even sitting next to greatness can rub off!!!

Rash Generalization No. 3: Raul Ibanez will finish his Phillies career the way he started.

No, those were not boos you heard last night at Citi Field after Raul Ibanez‘s sixth inning solo home run. It was Phillies fans chanting, “Rauuuuuul.”  

Raul Ibanez has quietly been mounting a hot streak. He has hit in six straight games, during which time he is hitting .379 with four home runs and 14 RBI. Add to that his diving catch in the outfield last night and you might forget that this classy veteran is pushing 40.

This is likely Raul’s last year with the Phillies, and maybe even his last in the game he has played so well for so many years. I say he finishes with an end to this season like his scorching start with the Phillies in 2009.

Advice to Charlie? Make sure Raul gets plenty of rest, takes his vitamins, and sneaks in an afternoon nap whenever possible.

 

So there you have it, three groundless predictions based on one game.

Have a great Saturday. And remember, the Phillies play the Mets again today at 4:10.

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