Philadelphia Philles: Beating That Dead Horse That Is Ryan Howard and RBI

Every once in a while, Philadelphia Daily News sports writer Bill Conlin publishes an article that is even more absurd than his usual ramblings.

This time it’s the notion that Ryan Howard is one of the best players in baseball because of the amount of RBI he racks up.

Sadly, so many others, even supposedly knowledgeable radio hosts tout his greatness using the same old story. The Fanatic’s own Mike Missanelli called Ryan Howard the “most under-appreciated athlete” in Philadelphia.

I think almost all Phillies fans appreciate what Howard has done in his career, especially 2006, but there is a large contingent of us that know the horrible statistic that is RBI, he is declining and dreading the fact he’ll be handcuffing payroll by making at least $10 million to $15 million more than he’s worth.

Keith Law summed it pretty well when asked about RBI:

“Totally useless. In terms of measuring the value of a player’s performance, I find them absolutely useless because 1) it’s determined by how many opportunities you get — the guys who hit in front of you in the lineup, how often did they get on base; and 2) there’s no particular skill to driving runs in.

There’s no such thing as a hitter who is significantly better in RBI opportunities. Guys might do that over a year or two over the course of their careers, but you are not seeing guys who are just substantially better than the norm with runners in scoring position.

Obviously all hitters hit a little bit better with men on base and pitchers working out of the stretch, maybe he doesn’t generate the same velocity. But in general, a hitter’s a hitter, whether there’s nobody on base or there are guys on second and third. …

There’s not really a guy out there who’s better in RBI situations. If you’re in an RBI situation, if you’re in a clutch situation, the guy you want at the plate is just your best hitter, period – the guy who’s going to produce the most offensively or give you the least chance of making an out, because obviously in a clutch situation, in an RBI situation, the last thing you want is an out.

So get me the guy up there who’s the least likely to make an out or who’s most likely to get that extra-base hit, regardless of what the situation is, because I think if you really look deep down into it, over the course of multiple seasons, you won’t find that those guys who you’re talking about who step up in big situations really exist.”

Still, people like Conlin struggle with these simple concepts. And personally, I think his latest article needs another Fire Joe Morgan style

“ON THE DAY AFTER the All-Star game was played in Phoenix without Ryan Howard, this column is directed at the haters and bashers who have been coming out of the woodwork in larger numbers than usual.

They are predictable as smog in a heat wave. They pretend to be knowledgable baseball fans, but trip themselves up every time because they are dead wrong. And egregiously stupid.”

They are coming out of the woodwork in larger numbers because more people are educating themselves about the sport through great sites like Fangraphs, Beyond the Box Score and Inside the Book.

We don’t pretend or trip ourselves up, rather it is your type who can’t let go of obsolete baseball card stats created in the 19th century and accept times have changed.

Calling other people stupid because of an unwillingness and incapability of understanding newer, more advanced concepts is immature and embarrassing. I guess spellcheck is out of the question too.   

“I hear the reason why he was not voted into the All-Star Game by the fans—and Phillies fans basically ignored him while stuffing the ballot box for an injured Shane Victorino—is because the National League has all these great first basemen. And RH is no longer one of them…”

Then you heard correctly. There are currently seven National League first basemen who have more WAR than Howard.

They are Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, Carlos Pena, Gaby Sanchez and Michael Morse. All of them except Pena also have a higher wOBA.

“So, chew on this: Prince Fielder went to the All-Star game and captained a Home Run Derby team that was blown out of the water by a couple of real hitters named Adrian Gonzalez and Robinson Cano, who put on one hell of a show.

Not that Fielder is chopped liver. He is, after all, tied for the league RBI lead with some slipping, already over-the-hill guy named Ryan Howard. Each had 72 at the break. Oh, and Prince did rule last night, with a three-run homer that helped the National League win, 5-1.

But let me mention that Howard bats cleanup for a first-place team that leads the majors in wins and has the biggest division lead at the break in either league.”

The Home Run Derby matters? Brewers are currently a first-place team as well. And I guess Lee, Hamels and Halladay don’t play a significant role in leading the majors in wins?

“Oh, but he’s a butcher with the glove (all of four errors), clogs up the bases (as if Fielder is Michael Bourn) and is not providing close to acceptable return for the $125 million salary. (And since that contract just kicked in and he’s on pace for 140 RBI, maybe you should wait a while on that.)”

There is more to fielding than the amount of errors you make or don’t make. It’s called range. No one said Fielder is Michael Bourn. And his contract extension has not kicked it yet. That is just factually wrong. It does not start until 2012. Last time I looked, it is still 2011. But I’m the stupid one.

“Here’s a typical email from a regular who has been on Howard’s case since Day 1. He posted it just as the Phillies were about to explode for that 14-1 destructo of the Braves Sunday:

‘The Phillies are paying Howard more than the Sox are paying Adrian Gonzalez a professional hitter. That would be funny if it wasn’t so embarrassing.’

I replied: ” . . . There’s not one [censored] player worth what he’s being paid . . . That’s why there should be a statue of Marvin Miller in front of the MLPA headquarters.”

Just then, Howard singled home the lead run off Derek Lowe in what was still a tight game.

The emailer’s reply:

Only because for some reason Lowe didn’t throw a breaking ball in the dirt. He doesn’t get paid to hit singles off the trademark. He’s killing this team like he did in 07 09 & 10.

This was the generic chant from the Tab-and-Scrapple Choir. He doesn’t hit for high enough average, he never hits in the clutch (See Mike Schmidt abuse files from the 1970s). He needs to bunt or slap the ball to left against the shift. Yada, yada, yada . . .”

All players’ salaries as a whole is not really conducive to the argument at hand. I would not go as far as to say he’s absolutely killing the team. That doesn’t start until probably 2014. You don’t think he’d……?  

“One guy even invoked the despicable, undecipherable WAR stat. That’s a totally bogus acronym for “Wins Above Replacement.” It presents a patentedly unsupported hypothesis that measures the “projected” performance of an “average” Triple A player called up to replace Major League regular A . . .

I’m laughing too hard to continue. You saw what happened last season when Howard missed 19 games with an ankle sprain and was off-form the rest of the season, yet still managed 31 homers and 108 RBI.

In the words of Edwin Starr at Woodstock: “WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothin.’ [Hunh!]””

And your T-shirts are too tight too, Billy! The offensive portion of WAR actually isn’t really unsupported at all. Conlin doesn’t like new statistics! Conlin smash! The Phillies went 12-4, averaging almost five runs, in his missed games from August 3 through August 20.

“For the record—and I’m giving Michael Jack a pass for his dismal rookie year—in his first five full seasons after 1973, MJS averaged 34.2 homers and 99.4 RBI.”

Cool story, bro.

“So let’s move on to some serious power hitting by the man considered to be the greatest all-around hitter in franchise history. That would be Hall of Famer Chuck Klein.

Klein was a candle who burned briefly but brightly in his five full seasons playing in a lopsided Baker Bowl that was tilted favorably for both his lefthanded pull power and defensive prowess as a rightfielder.

So let’s put Howard’s first 5 full years up against the Great Chucker. And I’m throwing out RH’s Rookie of the Year 2005 because he played in only 88 games.”

Let’s not. This is about to get worse.

“Klein had a 1930 for the ages. So did the Phillies. He batted .386, but failed to win the batting title in a National League consumed by an orgy of offense. He scored 158 runs, flogged 250 hits, ripped 59 doubles, eight triples and 40 homers for a gargantuan 170 RBI.

Unfortunately, that was the year when Hack Wilson drove in 190 for the Cubs.

They must have been playing slo-pitch softball because the Phillies’ team batting average was an incredible .315. That offensive juggernaut managed to lose 102 games in a 154-game schedule.

Howard is tied for the NL RBI lead despite being an island in the stream. Until Chase Utley came back after missing 2 months, there was a mostly inept revolving No. 3 hole in front of him and a No. 5 hole committee that underperformed.

In 1930, Klein had the best protection since the invention of the kevlar vest. He batted No. 3 with Lefty O’Doul hitting .383 in front of him. The cleanup hitter was third baseman Pinky Whitney, who batted .342.

Klein was traded to the Cubs after his fifth full season:

* The Chucker drove in 693 runs for an average of 138.6.

* Howard has driven in 680 runs for an average of 136.

* The Chucker hit 180 homers for an average of 36.

* Howard has hit 229 homers for an average of 45.8.

I’d rest the defense right there, but feel compelled to add that Klein spent most of his seasons here on teams in or near last place.

I don’t have to tell you where Ryan Howard has spent his five seasons.”

Mother of God. You can’t compare counting stats across two completely different eras and two completely different ballparks! And I do not recall anybody saying Klein was better than Howard or vice versa. How is it Klein’s fault that those Phillies teams had arguably the worst pitching staffs in history?

If you continue reading in the comments, you can entertain yourself with more absurdities.

What Conlin, and many others won’t listen to is the fact that each year he is at or right near the top of runners on base when he comes to the plate. You don’t have to be a genius to understand that the more runners on base when you’re hitting, the more opportunities you get to drive them in. Perhaps Conlin thinks he can knock in over a 100 RBI without anyone being on base.

Currently this season, Ryan Howard has had the most runners on base when he’s at bat, 297 of them to be exact. For brief comparison sake, that is two more than Adrian Gonzalez, 33 more than Prince Fielder, and 62 more than Jose Bautista. 

Currently he is knocking others in base at a very respectable 18.1 percent clip. Is it the best in baseball as many pretend he is?

Among the 75 players with at least 150 plate appearances with runners on base, it is good for 12th. Please note I arbitrarily picked 150 plate appearances because it gave us a nice round number of players in the pool and still enough to weed out at least some small sample variance.

Now you may or may not be thinking to yourself, I wonder how many RBI those other players would have if they had the same amount of runners on base as Howard. Good news, I did those calculations using each player’s others batted in rate.

In that, Ryan Braun led the group with 82 RBI, followed closely by Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Howard was 12th.

There is a reason that stat was almost rejected in its infancy almost 150 years ago, it is too dependent on what happens in front of you.

There are plenty of better statistics to judge a player’s ability, but until they appear on baseball cards, television graphics or until the current obsolete collection of announcers, writers and hosts either catch up to the times or are replaced, people will continue to be brainwashed by the Bill Conlins of the world.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Trade Speculation: 8 Big Trades the Philadelphia Phillies Might Trigger

Everyone knows the Phillies have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball.

Making the playoffs is almost a sure thing for the Phillies this year, but Philly fans aren’t just looking to make the playoffs, they want to win the World Series.

In order to accomplish this feat, the Phillies must add another starter, a reliever or a bat into the mix.

Here is a list of the top eight potential players who could end up in Philadelphia.

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Philadelphia Phillies 2011 First-Half Report Card

Having ended the first half of the season with a 57-34 record, the best in baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies have much to look forward to in the second half.  And although many injuries and questions still loom in the background, the first half of play was very successful for this team.

What makes the first half even more remarkable is that the Phillies were able to win despite injuries and missed time from a bucket-full of All-Star caliber players, including Chase Utley, Roy Oswalt, Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco.

In the bullpen, the Phillies are currently on their fourth closer of the year as the first three all went on the DL.  First Brad Lidge, then Jose Contreras and finally, Ryan Madson.

The rest of the pen has been run primarily by rookies and inexperienced players over the last several month.  But these players have stepped up and are keeping hope alive.

The following  is a look at the Phillies 2011 First Half Report Card.

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10 Most Underrated Phillies of All Time

Trying to nail down a true definition of ‘underrated’ is like trying to pinpoint what exactly is wrong with Charlie Sheen; there’s just too many options.

For a team such as the Philadelphia Phillies, who have been around since 1883 and were the first major professional sports team to reach 10,000 losses, the negatives have far outweighed the positives.

However, amid all the losing, there have been a number of players who have worn the Phillies uniform and given fans plenty of reason to cheer.

From Richie Ashburn and Steve Carlton to Mike Schmidt and Chase Utley, the Phillies have had their share of elite players.  However, a few players have slipped through the cracks over the years and never received the credit they deserve from the baseball world.

Here’s an attempt to give some underrated Phillies some well deserved recognition.

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Philadelphia Phillies: How Well Would Heath Bell Fit in a Crowded Bullpen?

With the recent news that José Contreras might not return at all this season, the hot stove is heating up for the Phillies bullpen.

Even though he was never really a target for the Phillies, since Francisco Rodriguez has been traded to Milwaukee, the overall league competition for the remaining relievers on the market will rise.

This price increase will also affect San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell, who has been linked to the Phillies for quite a bit of time.

Bell, 33, mentioned the Phillies as one of the potential teams that he could envision joining.

He also mentioned the Angels, Yankees, Cardinals and Rangers as other potential suitors.

Fresh off of the All-Star game last night, his price tag will definitely not be cheap.

The only thing that might lower this price tag is the fact that the Padres will most likely be selling given that they are in last place in the West and 12 games out of first.

If the Phillies are able to acquire Bell, it is difficult to determine where he would fit into their overall bullpen picture.

He is obviously a very successful closer after being named to his third consecutive All-Star game. This season, he has a 2.43 ERA with 26 saves.

He is also able to keep the ball down as he has pitched 31 innings this year without surrendering one home run. That would be incredibly helpful in Citizens Bank Park.

However, with Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge returning to the bullpen shortly, if Bell was added to that picture, there would be an awful lot of potential and talented closers.

What do all of you think? Will the Phillies even try for Bell? If so, will he close or set up?

Let me know!

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Power Ranking the Top 10 Starting Pitching Prospects

One of the main reasons why the Phillies won the World Series in 2008 was due to theirhome grown talent hey had during 2007; Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels in particular.

After their World Series title in 2008, the philosophy changed. Before, the club never signed a free-agent pitcher to more than three years. Due to the money they had, they were able to accomplish this with Cliff Lee. They signed him to a five-year deal!

Out of the “four aces” Cole Hamels is the only home grown product.

Don’t worry, there is talent in the farm. Keith Law of ESPN has the Phillies farm system ranked fifth in all of baseball, and most of that has to do with their starting pitching.

So, who will become the next ace in Philadelphia?

Then again, will Ruben Amaro Jr. use one of these “Baby Aces” to acquire a much needed right-handed bat?

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: 5 Reasons Why Phillies Win the Debate

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox are the favorites in each league. The Red Sox are a very offensive-based team—the Phillies, however, are held up mostly by their pitching.

Which one is more important in the postseason?

Which team has more useful strengths?

Philadelphia does. I’ll give you five reasons why.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Questions for the Second Half

The Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in the MLB at the All-Star break.

They have found ways to win behind their impressive pitching staff, including Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and more.

Despite injuries to Chase Utley, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge and just about everyone else on the team, they continue to win. But the team is not without fault.

The Phillies still have many questions facing them as we enter the second half of play. While the team is 57-34 this season, there is room for improvement and time for opponents to catch up to them.

The Phillies, like every other team in baseball, have dealt with injuries, tough losses and players who are slumping. The deciding factor at the end of the season is how a team copes with these setbacks.

With the second half of play beginning shortly, these are the 10 questions that surround the Phillies.

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2011 MLB Midseason: Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies Too Predictable

There are pennant-chasers out there who have proven to be on their way to the fall classic, as predicted.

It must be hard for the MLB to sell parity and competition when there are maybe four franchises that have a chance at winning the World Series. Baseball is no longer the event that it was years ago.

The culture of baseball now is like America’s; the rich stay rich and the bottom-feeders get the scraps.

The Philadelphia Phillies are proving to be as dominant as advertised during Spring Training. While slugging percentage and batting average haven’t been the reasons for their league leading 57-34 record, the pitching is just plain filthy.

It has been over 20 plus years since we have seen a rotation like this!

A team that has three starters under a 3.00 ERA will definitely have a leg up come playoff time. If you’re almost guaranteed three wins in the fall and have a few clutch hits in late-inning games, the road through the National League could be smooth sailing. Philly fans could fill the streets once again if Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Halladay keep this pace up.

The Boston Red Sox have been on a tear as of late.

Red Sox nation has enjoyed watching a team who is winning games on the road as well as at home. Facing the Orioles and the Blue Jays has probably added to the confidence that Boston has had since the All-Star break.

They are 9-1 in their last teen games and have won their last six games. If the Phillies are the pitching-dominant team in the MLB, the Red Sox are the hitting-dominant team in baseball.

If Adrian Gonzalez hitting .354 and David Ortiz leading the team with 19 home runs is not enough, Boston leads the league in runs, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage.

The Red Sox are waiting for an underachieving Carl Crawford to get off the DL and show the franchise that he is worth the contract dollars management put up for him.

The problem is that these two teams will probably end up meeting each other in the World Series. This creates a fan that doesn’t have to be gripped to every game from the outset.

When the experts picked the Red Sox and the Phillies to be the favorites and they are one and two at the break, it shows the lack of parity in the MLB, which other leagues seem to have.

MLB has the time to be in the limelight with the NFL still being in lockout mode, and they have done nothing to bring new viewership. It’s sad when a collective bargaining dispute gets more headlines than players actually playing.

Whether it’s pitching becoming more prominent since the eradication of performance enhancing drugs or All-Stars deciding to “sit this one out,” baseball hasn’t done too many favors to help themselves out this year.

With attendance and TV ratings taking a slide this year, the 162 game season has not evolved for this day and age. Baseball has lost even more juice from 2010. In less than a month, baseball will be in the shadows again as football begins.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Trade Speculation: 5 Philadelphia Phillies Upgrade Options in the Outfield

As the July trade deadline looms, the Philadelphia Phillies will continue to shop the major league market to upgrade their current corner outfield situation.

The Phillies are in need of a right-handed bat to break up their abundance of left-handed hitters. The team is missing the right-handed power of Jayson Werth, who signed a mega-deal with the Washington Nationals.

With Raul Ibanez on the brink of 39 years of age and his contract expiring at the end of the season, the Phillies may choose to address the future of left field sooner rather than later.  Raul’s defensive ability and overall plate consistency have been an issue the majority of the 2011 season.

Over the past few years, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has pulled a rabbit out of a hat and brought big names to Philadelphia. Reports indicate the Phillies may be strapped for cash, but if a big opportunity knocks at their door it will tough for the Phillies not to extend themselves.

Hopefully Ruben can make a splash and help the Phillies make a deep run into October.

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