2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Are Their Players Over or Under Expectations?

Way back when—in February 2011, when the temperature was about 80 degrees under what it is now on the East Coast—I proposed 33 over-under proposition bets to make the Philadelphia Phillies’ season interesting.

At the end of May—when the Phils had completed one-third of their games—we checked in on how the team and certain individuals were performing relative to my projections. Now that the team has completed two-thirds of their games, it’s time to do so once again.

Please note: This piece only analyzes games and stats played through Monday, August 1. That is when the Phillies had arrived at exactly 108 of their 162 regular season games.

How do we look at a season in which this favored team has been in first place all year long and was already seven games up (and rising) on the Braves with two months left to play? That part has not been surprising, but there have been some pleasant surprises (think Worley, Bastardo and the Stutes–catchy, huh?) and some unpleasant ones (injuries to a whole host of players, and the inability of either Ben Francisco or Domonic Brown to take the right field job prior to Hunter Pence’s arrival).

Through all this, the Phillies have been remarkably consistent when analyzed this way. They were 34-20 after 54 games and then went 35-19 in their next 54. Their record of 69 (and rising) and 39 projects to 104 wins, which almost certainly will earn them homefield advantage throughout the postseason.

With this as our backdrop, let’s check back in on those 33 prop bets.

 

Pitchers and Catchers

1. Combined wins by R2C2 (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels):  71

The Phour Aces (if you prefer) need to pick up the slack to hit this one—not that they haven’t pitched extremely well. Presently, they have combined for 39 wins, which projects to about 59. If they win eight apiece down the stretch, they will hit this number. Although not probable, it’s certainly possible with Oswalt expected to return this weekend, If they do so,  Halladay will finish with 21 wins, Hamels with 20, Lee with 18 and Oswalt with 12

2. Combined innings by R2C2: 850

Oswalt’s injury, causing him to miss nine or ten starts has hurt here as well. Currently, the four have thrown 546.2 innings, which projects to 819—quite impressive, if just under the number. Halladay (first in the NL), Hamels (third) and Lee (sixth) all are on pace to throw over 230 innings this year.

3. Combined strikeouts for R2C2: 800

The three healthy pitchers are all in contention for the NL strikeout crown. Lee, Halladay and Hamels rank 3-4-5 in the league. Collectively, R2C2 has fanned 498 batters, which projects to 747. They’re striking out almost a man per inning, while yielding very few walks.

4. Combined complete games for R2C2: 20

Doc (with six) looks like he’s going to lead the NL in this category again, and Cliff is tied for second with four. Hamels has one. Their combined 11 projects to 16.5.

5. Wins by Joe Blanton in a Phils uniform: 6

This was proposed as more of a nod to trade rumors than to concerns over Big Joe’s injuries and ineffectiveness. It looks like Big Joe is one-and-done for this season. Thankfully, Kyle Kendrick has pitched well, and Vance Worley has been unreal.

6. Saves for Brad Lidge: 33

There’s always next year, although it’s fair to ask if Lidge will be the closer then, and for whom? On the bright side, Ryan Madson (19 saves), Antonio Bastardo (8) and, yes, Jose Contreras (5) have saved a remarkable 32 of their combined 33 chances. For comparison’s sake, the Giants’ Brian Wilson has saved 33 of his 37 opportunities. I( guess you don’t need a single closer or a painted beard to be, um, lights-out.

7. Batting average for Carlos Ruiz: .285

After a slow start, the beloved Cooch is up to .268. it’s possible.

8. Homers for Chooch: 11

His four homers only project to six.

 

The Rest of the Lineup

9. Home runs for Ryan Howard:  44

Please remember that I’m only counting games through Monday, August 1. Howard’s 21 dingers project to 32, but the big man looks to be heating up.

10. RBI for Howard: 136

Howard was second in the NL with 81, which puts him on pace for 122. This will be close if he stays healthy, now that the Phils have a legitimate No. 5 hitter behind him and better hitters ahead of him as well.

11. Whiffs for Howard:  180

Ryan has cut down (ever-so-slightly) on his strikeouts, and is on pace for only 174..

12. Games played for Chase Utley: 145

Chase has now suited up for 58 of the first 108 and should at least top 100 this year. Please remember that this number was set before a preseason injury that could have been even worse.

13. Homers for Chase: 28

Chase now has eight, including that recent inside-the-parker: Will you settle for 16?

14. HBP for Chase: 23

Utley led the league each year from 2007 through 2009. He’s been plunked seven times already, and Phillies fans hope he does not even approach this number. Chooch has actually been hit 10 times.

15. Games played for Jimmy Rollins: 145

Jimmy’s been healthy so far, and has played in 104 games already. That projects to 156.

16. Runs scored for Jimmy: 105

J-Roll has just a little catching up to do. His 66 project to 99; this one will be close if he plays every day, but will Charlie Manuel rest him more often down the stretch?

17. Stolen bases for Rollins: 32

Rollins has 24; if he keeps up the pace, he’ll have swiped 36.

18. Placido Polanco’s batting average: .300

Polly, plagued by injuries, is at .276. If he regains his April stroke, he can do it.

19. Will Polanco reach 2,000 career hits before or after September 15?

Placido still needs 73 hits to attain this notable milestone. With 40 or so games left until September 15, it does not appear too likely he’ll do so this season.

20. Games played for Wilson Valdez: 55

Even though we haven’t seen as much of Valdez of late, he has already appeared in 69 games. Score one for the over.

21. Will Raul Ibanez finish the season in a Phillies uniform?

Unless he’s put on waivers, Raul will be here—which isn’t such a bad thing.

22. RBI for Raul: 90

Sometimes, the oddsmakers (okay, it was me, who never does this sort of thing), get things right. Ibanez’ 60 RBI project to exactly 90. Remarkable, considering his horrid start to this campaign.

23. Batting average for Shane Victorino:  .285

Victorino has been the Phillies’ most consistent hitter, and is presently at .304.

24. Homers for Shane: 13

Shane has taken balls out of the year 10 times, which projects to 15. More impressively, he has 12 triples, and with double figures in doubles and stolen bases, he has already completed the quadruple double.

25. At-bats for Domonic Brown: 250

Brown has 183 at-bats and 206 plate appearances, but when will we see him again?

26. Homers for D-Brown: 14

With only five homers and Hunter Pence in Philly, this will go in the under column.

27. Games played for Ben Francisco: 115

Francisco has played in 80 games, and still has a shot at this, albeit a long shot now.

28. Ben’s batting average: .270

Francisco is at a disappointing .221.

29. Homers for Ross Gload: 8

In limited duty (71 at-bats) Gload has not put any in the seats so far. In fairness to him (and my projection), I’m not counting foul balls, or homers rocketed in BP.

 

Team Numbers

30. Total Wins in 2011: 100

Somewhat amazingly, through all the injuries, the Phillies are on pace for 104 wins. Ninety-six or so should earn them the No. 1 seed.

31. Games ahead at the All-Star Break: 4

This one is complete, and the Phils fell just under; they were 3.5 games ahead at the All-Star Break.

32. Games the Phils will win the NL East by: 7

They were already up by seven after Monday’s games. Is an 11-game margin impressive enough?

33. Games the Phils will finish ahead of the New York Mets: 13

In February, I wrote: It was a margin of 18 last year, but can the Mets be that bad again?

The Mets have actually not been a train wreck (on the field) this year, but they were already 14.5 games behind after Monday.

 

Summary

In assessing the above over-unders, it looks as if 14 or 15 of them will be reached (or answered affirmatively). I set the new over-under at 14.5 overs.

I’m glad that I’m just a huge sports fan and not a betting man.

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