Shane Victorino: Under the Radar National League MVP Candidate

Until Ryan Howard’s recent 3-for-17, 10-strikeout skid, there was talk, absurd as it is, about Howard’s claim for another possible MVP. But Phillies fans are forgetting the team’s most deserving MVP candidate, Shane Victorino.

Currently Shane Victorino is second among National League position players in Fangraphs’ WAR with 5.6, behind only Colorado Rockies‘ Troy Tulowitizki and tied with Jose Reyes. In Baseball-Reference’s WAR, Victorino is tied for fifth with 4.6 wins, behind only Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen and Michael Bourn.

The difference in the two measures comes from the difference in the defensive input they use in each. For example, Baseball-Reference grades out Kemp and Braun’s defense much better than Fangraphs. However, in each system, Victorino’s defense grades out well. In Baseball-Reference’s Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, Victorino has saved five runs. In Fangraph’s Ultimate Zone Rating, he’s been even better, saving just over seven runs.

But everyone knows Victorino has been a great defensive center fielder for years now. What puts him into MVP contention now is his improved offensive game. After suffering some bad BABIP luck last year, he’s rebounded in a strong way, hitting .310/.387/.541. His .928 OPS is good for eighth in the National League. Showing an increase in power, with career highs in slugging and isolated slugging (.231), he’ll get near his career high in homers and is just one triple away from tying his career high in triples (13).

Tacking on stolen bases, his .407 wOBA is seventh in the league. Stolen bases aren’t the only byproduct of his terrific speed. Unlike the other sluggers who rate higher in the offensive categories, his baserunning has added 3.4 runs according to Fangraphs, good for fifth in the league.

His value lies in the under-the-radar and hard-to-measure facets of the game. Unfortunately for Victorino, he doesn’t have the gaudy baseball card stats that typically woo MVP voters, media and fans.

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