Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Lessons We Learned About Phils at Trade Deadline

The trade deadline taught us more than just the fact that Ruben Amaro Jr. is relentless when it comes to getting the player he sets out to acquire.

It also taught us that, as a player, when you hear the Phillies are interested, you might as well book a flight to Philadelphia.

For the third consecutive season, Amaro acquired the player he wanted at the deadline.

This season it was Hunter Pence from the Houston Astros.

Next season it may be Peyton Manning.

But, for now, the acquisition of Pence did more than just fulfill the Phillies desire for a right handed batter.

It also taught us some lessons about what the Phillies have planned for this season, and even in the near future.

And that on the 29^th, Christmas really does come in July for Phillies fans.

Begin Slideshow

Hunter Pence: Philadelphia Phillies’ Deadline Deal Pays Immediate Dividends

Hunter Pence was brought to Philadelphia in order to provide some much need balance to a lineup dominated by lefties. The Phillies parted with their top two prospects, along with two others, in order to acquire their new right fielder.

Let’s take a look at the early returns on the Phillies’ big move.

Philadelphia has won all five of its games since adding Pence. However, this is a Phillies team that already boasted the league’s best record prior to Pence’s arrival. So, we need to look deeper than wins and losses to see the effect that he’s had.

Through his first five games in a Phillies uniform, Pence is batting .285 with three RBI and three runs scored. Add in a pair of walks and Pence’s OBP is .348 while wearing the red pinstripes.

These numbers are taken from a very small sample—only 21 official at bats—but they fall in line with his overall season production.

What we must understand is that the impact of Hunter Pence on the National League pennant race goes far beyond what his stats can measure.

The most telling numbers are actually coming from a different player in the Phillies lineup. Since Pence’s arrival, this player is 9-for-22 with four home runs and nine RBI.

As I’m sure many of you know, these numbers belong to Ryan Howard. Pence has been hitting in the fifth slot of Charlie Manuel’s lineup, right behind the slugging first baseman.

If early results are any indication, Pence offers Ryan Howard the lineup protection that was previously missing. Knowing that Pence is lurking in the on-deck circle appears to have coaxed opposing pitchers into throwing Howard more fastballs.

In addition to statistics, Hunter Pence has invigorated the Phillies clubhouse and fanbase.

Pence spent his first four-and-a-half years with the Astros and has never had a sniff of the postseason. During his interviews after joining the Phillies, he expressed excitement about being involved in a playoff race. His energy will be a shot of life for his teammates and should help the team to avoid complacency.

Pence’s enthusiasm for the game has made him an instant fan favorite in Philadelphia. What Hunter lacks in style and grace, he more than makes up for with all out hustle.

A perfect fit for the city of Philadelphia.

In five games, Phillies fans have already gotten a small taste of the difference that Hunter Pence will make on this team.

The Phillies have now set their sights on the bay area. Hunter Pence and company are in San Francisco for a four-game series with the reigning World Series champs.  Only a week ago, the Giants handed the Phillies their first series loss since the middle of June.

The players will undoubtedly downplay this series’ significance, but for Phillies fans everywhere, the goal is sweet revenge.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Are Their Players Over or Under Expectations?

Way back when—in February 2011, when the temperature was about 80 degrees under what it is now on the East Coast—I proposed 33 over-under proposition bets to make the Philadelphia Phillies’ season interesting.

At the end of May—when the Phils had completed one-third of their games—we checked in on how the team and certain individuals were performing relative to my projections. Now that the team has completed two-thirds of their games, it’s time to do so once again.

Please note: This piece only analyzes games and stats played through Monday, August 1. That is when the Phillies had arrived at exactly 108 of their 162 regular season games.

How do we look at a season in which this favored team has been in first place all year long and was already seven games up (and rising) on the Braves with two months left to play? That part has not been surprising, but there have been some pleasant surprises (think Worley, Bastardo and the Stutes–catchy, huh?) and some unpleasant ones (injuries to a whole host of players, and the inability of either Ben Francisco or Domonic Brown to take the right field job prior to Hunter Pence’s arrival).

Through all this, the Phillies have been remarkably consistent when analyzed this way. They were 34-20 after 54 games and then went 35-19 in their next 54. Their record of 69 (and rising) and 39 projects to 104 wins, which almost certainly will earn them homefield advantage throughout the postseason.

With this as our backdrop, let’s check back in on those 33 prop bets.

 

Pitchers and Catchers

1. Combined wins by R2C2 (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels):  71

The Phour Aces (if you prefer) need to pick up the slack to hit this one—not that they haven’t pitched extremely well. Presently, they have combined for 39 wins, which projects to about 59. If they win eight apiece down the stretch, they will hit this number. Although not probable, it’s certainly possible with Oswalt expected to return this weekend, If they do so,  Halladay will finish with 21 wins, Hamels with 20, Lee with 18 and Oswalt with 12

2. Combined innings by R2C2: 850

Oswalt’s injury, causing him to miss nine or ten starts has hurt here as well. Currently, the four have thrown 546.2 innings, which projects to 819—quite impressive, if just under the number. Halladay (first in the NL), Hamels (third) and Lee (sixth) all are on pace to throw over 230 innings this year.

3. Combined strikeouts for R2C2: 800

The three healthy pitchers are all in contention for the NL strikeout crown. Lee, Halladay and Hamels rank 3-4-5 in the league. Collectively, R2C2 has fanned 498 batters, which projects to 747. They’re striking out almost a man per inning, while yielding very few walks.

4. Combined complete games for R2C2: 20

Doc (with six) looks like he’s going to lead the NL in this category again, and Cliff is tied for second with four. Hamels has one. Their combined 11 projects to 16.5.

5. Wins by Joe Blanton in a Phils uniform: 6

This was proposed as more of a nod to trade rumors than to concerns over Big Joe’s injuries and ineffectiveness. It looks like Big Joe is one-and-done for this season. Thankfully, Kyle Kendrick has pitched well, and Vance Worley has been unreal.

6. Saves for Brad Lidge: 33

There’s always next year, although it’s fair to ask if Lidge will be the closer then, and for whom? On the bright side, Ryan Madson (19 saves), Antonio Bastardo (8) and, yes, Jose Contreras (5) have saved a remarkable 32 of their combined 33 chances. For comparison’s sake, the Giants’ Brian Wilson has saved 33 of his 37 opportunities. I( guess you don’t need a single closer or a painted beard to be, um, lights-out.

7. Batting average for Carlos Ruiz: .285

After a slow start, the beloved Cooch is up to .268. it’s possible.

8. Homers for Chooch: 11

His four homers only project to six.

 

The Rest of the Lineup

9. Home runs for Ryan Howard:  44

Please remember that I’m only counting games through Monday, August 1. Howard’s 21 dingers project to 32, but the big man looks to be heating up.

10. RBI for Howard: 136

Howard was second in the NL with 81, which puts him on pace for 122. This will be close if he stays healthy, now that the Phils have a legitimate No. 5 hitter behind him and better hitters ahead of him as well.

11. Whiffs for Howard:  180

Ryan has cut down (ever-so-slightly) on his strikeouts, and is on pace for only 174..

12. Games played for Chase Utley: 145

Chase has now suited up for 58 of the first 108 and should at least top 100 this year. Please remember that this number was set before a preseason injury that could have been even worse.

13. Homers for Chase: 28

Chase now has eight, including that recent inside-the-parker: Will you settle for 16?

14. HBP for Chase: 23

Utley led the league each year from 2007 through 2009. He’s been plunked seven times already, and Phillies fans hope he does not even approach this number. Chooch has actually been hit 10 times.

15. Games played for Jimmy Rollins: 145

Jimmy’s been healthy so far, and has played in 104 games already. That projects to 156.

16. Runs scored for Jimmy: 105

J-Roll has just a little catching up to do. His 66 project to 99; this one will be close if he plays every day, but will Charlie Manuel rest him more often down the stretch?

17. Stolen bases for Rollins: 32

Rollins has 24; if he keeps up the pace, he’ll have swiped 36.

18. Placido Polanco’s batting average: .300

Polly, plagued by injuries, is at .276. If he regains his April stroke, he can do it.

19. Will Polanco reach 2,000 career hits before or after September 15?

Placido still needs 73 hits to attain this notable milestone. With 40 or so games left until September 15, it does not appear too likely he’ll do so this season.

20. Games played for Wilson Valdez: 55

Even though we haven’t seen as much of Valdez of late, he has already appeared in 69 games. Score one for the over.

21. Will Raul Ibanez finish the season in a Phillies uniform?

Unless he’s put on waivers, Raul will be here—which isn’t such a bad thing.

22. RBI for Raul: 90

Sometimes, the oddsmakers (okay, it was me, who never does this sort of thing), get things right. Ibanez’ 60 RBI project to exactly 90. Remarkable, considering his horrid start to this campaign.

23. Batting average for Shane Victorino:  .285

Victorino has been the Phillies’ most consistent hitter, and is presently at .304.

24. Homers for Shane: 13

Shane has taken balls out of the year 10 times, which projects to 15. More impressively, he has 12 triples, and with double figures in doubles and stolen bases, he has already completed the quadruple double.

25. At-bats for Domonic Brown: 250

Brown has 183 at-bats and 206 plate appearances, but when will we see him again?

26. Homers for D-Brown: 14

With only five homers and Hunter Pence in Philly, this will go in the under column.

27. Games played for Ben Francisco: 115

Francisco has played in 80 games, and still has a shot at this, albeit a long shot now.

28. Ben’s batting average: .270

Francisco is at a disappointing .221.

29. Homers for Ross Gload: 8

In limited duty (71 at-bats) Gload has not put any in the seats so far. In fairness to him (and my projection), I’m not counting foul balls, or homers rocketed in BP.

 

Team Numbers

30. Total Wins in 2011: 100

Somewhat amazingly, through all the injuries, the Phillies are on pace for 104 wins. Ninety-six or so should earn them the No. 1 seed.

31. Games ahead at the All-Star Break: 4

This one is complete, and the Phils fell just under; they were 3.5 games ahead at the All-Star Break.

32. Games the Phils will win the NL East by: 7

They were already up by seven after Monday’s games. Is an 11-game margin impressive enough?

33. Games the Phils will finish ahead of the New York Mets: 13

In February, I wrote: It was a margin of 18 last year, but can the Mets be that bad again?

The Mets have actually not been a train wreck (on the field) this year, but they were already 14.5 games behind after Monday.

 

Summary

In assessing the above over-unders, it looks as if 14 or 15 of them will be reached (or answered affirmatively). I set the new over-under at 14.5 overs.

I’m glad that I’m just a huge sports fan and not a betting man.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Ryan Howard and the Phillies: Trade Deadline Sweepstakes Early Winners

The Giants added what seemed to be the big trade deadline prize in Carlos Beltran. There were numerous headlines involving Beltran and where he might land leading up to the trade.

Supposedly, every contender was all over the Mets to see how they could get the oft-injured Beltran into their uniform. he Giants pulled it off by sending their top pitching prospect and former number one draft pick to the Mets for the two month services of Carlos Beltran.

So how has it worked out after nearly a week? Well, not too good. 

Since acquiring Beltran, the Giants are 2-5 and their first place lead has shrunk from five games down to one (yesterday they were in a tie for first). They actually lost two games to their closest competitor in the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Beltran is batting .266 (8/30) with two RBI’s and three runs scored. He also has six strike outs.

Are the Giants recent troubles Beltran’s fault? No, not by a long shot. But, he didn’t really stop it from happening either.

The Phillies, who were reportedly hot on Beltran (although Beltran himself said he was never approached about waiving his no-trade clause to go to Philly), had to “settle” (wink, wink) for two time All Star Hunter Pence. They gave up a first base prospect—who was probably never going to see the light of day with the big league club—and a single A pitching prospect. 

The Phillies, however, are not renting their new acquisition as Pence will remain under team control through the 2013 season. The Phils solved a problem not only for this year, but for the two years as well. Pence, like Beltran, was also sought after but wasn’t really considered a “big-prize-impact-player.”

Since acquiring Pence the Phils are 5-0 and their lead in the NL East has moved from five games up to eight. Pence was brought to Philadelphia to protect Ryan Howard and to throw some balance into a left-handed heavy line-up.

Pence’s impact has certainly been felt. 

In Pence’s first game as a Phillie, Ryan Howard went 4-4 with an intentional walk. Immediately following the IBB, Pence hit an RBI single to center.

In his second game, a right-handed pitcher was brought in with two outs in the eighth inning to pitch to Pence and spell the lefty whom just got Chase Utley and Ryan Howard out. Pence hit a double and was followed by Raul Ibanez who hit a game tying two run homer. Ibanez had a right-handed pitcher facing him because of Pence’s presence in the lineup. Later in the 10th inning, Pence doubled again and then scored the winning run on an Ibanez walk off double.

There’s been more. Those are just the early highlights.

Since Pence has been in the red pinstripes, Ryan Howard is batting .409 (9/22) with four HR’s, four 2B’s and nine RBI’s.

Pence himself is batting .285 (6/21) with three 2B’s, three runs scored and three RBI’s. He has had a hit in every game he’s played as a Phillie.

Michael Bourn was a late trade deadline deal for the Atlanta Braves, who were desperately in need of a lead-off hitter and a decent center-fielder. The Braves traded four decent pitching prospects and their emerging star center fielder, Jordan Schafer, who was already with the big league club. So what kind of impact has he had on the Braves?

In Bourn’s first at-bat with the Braves he got a base hit to lead off the ballgame. He was immediately doubled off on a line drive.

In his first three games with the Braves the team is 1-2. Bourn is batting .307 (4/13) with one 2B, two runs scored and one RBI. This is, of course, the smallest sample size of the three.

So who is the early winner of the trade deadline sweepstakes? 

Well, it appears to be Ryan Howard. The Philadelphia Phillies are riding a respectable six game win streak—five with Pence—and have widened an extremely comfortable lead in their division. 

Congratulations, Ryan Howard. Unfortunately there’s no real prize associated with this win.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Roy Oswalt to Return Soon, Who Will Go?

Good news out of Lehigh Valley. 

Roy Oswalt feels good and is ready to return to Philadelphia for the final stretch of the season.  Having been sidelined since late June with bulging disks in his back, Oswalt now says his velocity is up and there is no more pain his back.

After going six strong innings, Oswalt wrapped up his rehab assignment and is ready to rejoin the team for their west coast trip to San Francisco.  Oswalt’s schedule has him due to start Saturday against the Giants. However, that is also the day Cole Hamels is next slated to start.

Pitching coach Rich Dubee has not committed to either pitcher yet but has hinted that Oswalt may get the nod to afford Hamels an extra day of rest.

While this is good news for the Phils, it does leave one lingering question—who do they send down to make room for Oswalt?

This is a list of the top candidates.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies Offense, Defense Unstoppable with Howard, Kendrick, Worley

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? No clue. The whole thing explodes?

What is known, however, is the quickly-rising skill of both the Phillies offense and defense.

The Phillies offense? I would call it pretty close to unstoppable.

Philadelphia’s starting rotation? Pretty close to immovable. Here’s why:

Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard’s .252 batting average on the season is a bit of a disappointment. His 23 HR and 83 RBI brings Howard a little back to his old self.

In yesterday’s game he was 2-for-4 with two home runs. Does this show Howard is heating up?

No. But it gives us reason to hope for the future.

Jimmy Rollins has been heating up, and Shane Victorino is hitting above .300. Chase Utley is quickly improving, and Hunter Pence is hitting .306.

If Howard can get hitting again, Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, and Pence will become an unstoppable force at the top of the lineup.

With Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz’s clutch hitting backing up the bottom of the lineup, this is one offense any team would want in the postseason.

Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley

After Kendrick’s 2010 4.73 ERA, similar was expected for 2011. Instead, Kendrick has posted a 3.19 ERA. His 2.33 post All-Star ERA shows how much he has improved through the season.

Last night he pitched eight innings and gave up no runs. Four hits were all the Rockies could muster.

Vance Worley’s rookie season is one that most pitchers only dream of. With a 2.33 ERA and a 7-1 record, Worley’s first season gives us high expectations for the others.

Does Kendrick show as much potential as Worley? Not necessarily. Kendrick’s inconsistency has always been a problem.

One day he’ll pitch a gem, the next a blowout. Same kind of potential, just in different ways.

Even though Kendrick is showing improvement, if Oswalt comes back, Worley will still almost definitely get the fifth spot over Kyle Kendrick. Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels, Worley looks amazing on paper. Five aces.

The Phillies starting pitchers have compiled a stunning 2.99 ERA on the year.

Kyle will probably have to go to the bullpen for the time being, but I think we can expect a lot out of his career as a Philly.

I still don’t know what happens with the meeting of an unstoppable force and an immovable object, but I think it is safe to say the Phillies have near to that on both offense and defense. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Trade Shortstop Brian Bocock to Pirates

Shortstop Brian Bocock is no longer in the Phillies organization—surely no Philadelphia fans are crying—as the infielder was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash considerations. He has reported to the Pirates’ Triple-A team, the Indianapolis Indians.

The 26-year-old, who had not appeared at the major league level for the Phillies this season, was hitting .226 in the minor leagues at the time of the transaction.

Bocock last played for the Phillies in 2010, after he was claimed off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays in February of that year. He appeared in six games and collected zero hits in five at-bats, spending most of that season in the minor leagues as well.

He has also spent time with the San Francisco Giants. The team’s Opening Day starting shortstop in 2008 due to an injury to team regular Omar Vizquel, he hit .143 in 32 major league games before being sent to Triple-A.

Well, those are the facts—pretty mundane stuff. Now for some editorializing.

Bocock is one of those players that makes you wonder how he has lasted so long in professional baseball—let alone reached the majors—because ostensibly, he’s just not that good.

In the minor leagues, the Harrisonburg, Va. native has never hit above .243 in a season. He has also never hit more than five home runs, slugged better than .344, or walked more than 51 times. He strikes out too much (his career-high is 124) and his on-base percentage is too low.

Well then, he must be a stud defensively—offense doesn’t mean everything, just look at Mark Belanger—right? That is true, to a degree, as he does have, “ … solid defensive skills and enough arm to play shortstop,” according to The Sports Network, but he has also committed as many as 31 errors in a season.

Though his defense may be adequate, it does not make up for his very poor hitting—which, I imagine, is why he has not spent more time at the major league level. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Phillies Trade Grades: Analyzing Every Deadline Move and Non-Move

The 2011 Major League Baseball Trade Deadline has come and gone.  On July 31 when the clock struck 4, it was bluetooths off and blackberries down for exhausted GM’s across the league.  It was an active trade deadline period with lots of players changing uniforms.  But now that the texting has cleared and we’ve had a couple of days to clear our heads, how did GM Ruben Amaro and the Phillies really fare?  

 

In order to give Ruben an accurate grade it’s critical to look at more than just who is now wearing Phillies red.  So get out your scorecards and play along as we take a look at who they got, who they gave up, what they didn’t get and how it all stacks up with the moves made by baseball’s other top teams.

 

Are you with me?  I told you to get out your scorecards.  Here we go.

Begin Slideshow

Jimmy Rollins and the Best Shortstops in Philadelphia Phillies History

Offensive production is expected from the shortstop in modern times, but back in the old days, fielding took precedence over hitting.

Yeah you had your Honus Wagner’s and Ernie Banks, but it was Cal Ripken who revolutionized the position when he stormed onto the scene in 1982 when he won the Rookie of the Year and then MVP the following season.

At 6’4, you just didn’t see shortstops do what Ripken was able to do.

After Ripken you’ve had shortstops who not only could field their position, but also did damage at the dish.

Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki all came after Ripken. They exemplify the modern day shortstop. Each are/were not only solid in the field, but they produced at the plate. 

Essentially what I’m saying is, don’t expect to see a lot of guys on this list who were adept at hitting.

Let me warn you in advance, this is an extremely thin list…

AUTHOR’S NOTE: I’m in a contest to become the next host on 97.5 The Fanatic, a Philadelphia-based sports talk station. If you could take 30 seconds and PLEASE hit the “Like” button right next to the comment button on THIS LINK I provided, (It’s a rant about the Philadelphia Eagles) it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks to those that helped!

Follow me on Twitter @AdrianFedkiw

Begin Slideshow

« Previous Page