Philadelphia Phillies: Series vs. Florida Marlins Threatened by Hurricane Irene

Update: The Phillies have moved Sunday’s game against Florida to Saturday. The Phillies and Marlins will attempt yo squeeze in a double header before the storm moves through.

The Phillies have an off day on Thursday before hosting the Florida Marlins for a weekend series.

Hurricane Irene, a Category 3 storm, is also heading up the east coast and is going to be in the Philadelphia area this weekend.

The weather could put at least one game on the schedule at risk of postponement. Sunday’s series finale against the Marlins has the most ominous weather forecast, with an 80 percent chance of rain, according to the five-day forecast from The Weather Channel.

And when it does rain, it will be heavy.

Do not be surprised if that series finale is postponed and scheduled for a makeup for the last remaining off day on the schedule, September 15. The Marlins also have that day scheduled for an off day.

But what happens if two games are affected by Irene this weekend?

There is only a 30 percent chance of rain for Saturday, but the storm is expected to come in to the area that night. With a night game on the schedule, who knows what could happen with the game. The game could be scheduled for an earlier first pitch if approved by Major League Baseball, but the Phillies may have to give up the television rights due to MLB‘s contract with Fox for national game coverage.

Depending on the storm’s outlook, though, it may be the only option, because Florida does not make another trip to Philadelphia this season and the idea of a mixed doubleheader on September 22 (Marlins have off, Phillies host the Nationals that night) is not the most ideal.

What could happen is the game could also be moved to September 15 as part of a potential makeup doubleheader. With that day supposed to be the Phillies’ final off day of the season, there might be some objection from the players association and from the Phillies with the postseason looming.

Or, the Phillies could play a larger number of reserve players with expanded rosters, allowing everyday players to rest.

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ranking Who They’d Most Like to Play in the Postseason

The Philadelphia Phillies are a force to be reckoned with this season. With a rotation consisting of four aces in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt (and arguably Vance Worley) and an All-Star studded lineup that got even better with the July addition of outfielder Hunter Pence, there is little stopping the Phillies from going the distance and winning it all.

However, we have seen in the past that it’s not always as easy as it might seem. Last season, the Phillies had the best record in the majors at 97-65, a first for the team. But in the end, they were unable to defeat the San Francisco Giants, who made the playoffs only because the Atlanta Braves defeated the Phillies on the last day of the regular season, in last year’s NLCS, and the Giants went on to defeat the Texas Rangers in five games to win the World Series.

Phillies fans’ memory of Ryan Howard with his jaw dropped following striking out looking to Giants closer Brian Wilson to give the Giants the NL Pennant is one that we would like not to remember, but also one we can’t forget just yet. Fans last season were all anticipating reaching (if not winning) the World Series last year and becoming the first NL team to win the league pennant for three consecutive years since the St. Louis Cardinals did so from 1942-1944.

However, there is little reason to think that the Phillies have lost hope this season. They currently hold baseball’s best record at 83-44 and are on pace to win 106 games this season, and they lead their division rivals, the Atlanta Braves, by 6.5 games. Having lost only a couple of series since the month of June, the Phillies have little preventing them from winning their fifth straight NL East division title, aside from a four-game road series against the Milwaukee Brewers and a series or two against the Braves in September, although there isn’t a huge reason to think there would be a problem…or is there?

In recent memory, the Phillies have been a fantastic second-half team. But despite their winning ways, could the Phils face a setback sometime from now to the end of the season? They have already lost their shortstop Jimmy Rollins until at least early September, and first baseman Ryan Howard and left fielder Raul Ibanez are currently day to day. In addition, lefty ace Cole Hamels was recently placed on the DL, and while he is still scheduled to start next week on Monday, could he still be at risk of re-injuring himself?

The Phillies have 127 games in the books, but to stay on top for the remaining 35, it’s worth wondering whether the Phils can hold on here and beyond. Sure, the Phillies’ offense has been red-hot as of late (most likely due to the acquisition of Hunter Pence), but in past years the offense has become anemic in the postseason, which ultimately resulted in their loss to the Giants at the end of last year. There are some teams at this point that the Phillies would like to play more than others, both now and in the postseason, but it’s really the postseason that counts. As a virtual lock to make the playoffs, it’s worth taking note of who the Phillies hypothetically would prefer to play in October.

But before we can determine who they would like to face off against, we must look at the rest of the league and first determine who is even likely to make the postseason. 

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MLB: Every Contender’s Most Valuable Pitcher Down the Stretch

There’s a month and change to go, and the playoff picture is taking shape.

The AL East remains intriguing as the Red Sox and Yankees tussle back and forth to see who will have home-field advantage throughout the AL side.

After a three-game sweep over Cleveland, the Tigers have distanced themselves in the AL Central. Detroit’s a team to watch come postseason—especially if Boston or New York sees Verlander twice.

Texas continues to front-run in the AL West, but the Angels aren’t going away. Can the Rangers possibly catch Boston and New York for the top record in the American League?

Even though the Phillies are on pace to win 100-plus games, the Braves are still within shouting distance. The two combatants face off in Atlanta during the last three games of the season. Whether or not those games matter, we’ll see.

The Brewers have played so well over the last month that the Cardinals are no longer a big threat.

The most intriguing race remains out in the NL West. Will San Francisco right the ship? Can Arizona hang on? And finally, don’t sleep on Colorado—’specially if San Francisco and Arizona continue to falter. The Rockies have been known to get hot during the final month. Just look at what they did in 2007 and 2009. The next two weeks will be critical for them.

In this list, I take a look at the most important pitchers down the stretch—not necessarily the best.

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Philadelphia Phillies Land Phenom Carlos Tocci with Large Signing Bonus

The Philadelphia Phillies are ready to take over the world.

They’re kind of like the evil mastermind in every good villainous movie. With Ruben Amaro Jr at the helm, they’ve constructed the monstrous plan that will be laughed at by some; but if all goes according to plan, they will be feared by all. They’ve collected a gigantic sum of money and now are taking out various divisions of the industry.

With the local scene in their rear view mirror, we’ve reached the point in the movie where the evil mastermind sets his goals higher and his conquests further. Over the winter, the Phillies took home the prize of the free-agent market, nabbing pitcher Cliff Lee. They walked away from the trade deadline with Hunter Pence in tow, and now they’ve set their sights on the global market.

On Wednesday afternoon, the news became official that the Phils had signed a player regarded as the top international free agent available this summer, inking outfielder Carlos Tocci to one of the largest deals they’ve ever agreed to with an international player.

While the Phillies have been mum on the specifics of the deal, sports writers on the local and national scale have confirmed the signing. Jim Salisbury of CSNphilly.com first reported that the Phils were on the verge of landing Tocci, while Ben Badler of Baseball America confirmed that the deal was official, and that the teenager considered by many as the best international free agent would be paid handsomely, receiving a bonus of $759,000.

After trading away Domingo Santana to complete the Pence deal, the Phillies wanted to make sure that they were able to replenish some of the void created in their minor league system. They did that in the best way possible, taking a bit of a risk to land Tocci, who at just 16 years old, is expected to be a blank canvas full of potential.

Tocci stands at 6’2″ but weighs just 160 pounds. Though he’s expected to fill into that huge frame some over the coming years, more than likely he won’t change too much. Noted to have a good grasp of the game at a young age, Tocci’s greatest tool is his speed, which many scouts are calling a “plus-plus.”

Hitting from the right side of the plate, Tocci will also balance out some of the left-handed pop that the Phils house within a deep system. As he progresses, he is also expected to develop power, and with age he should become a legitimate five-tool prospect.

At the same time, however, it should be noted that the Phillies have not always had success on the international market. In fact, the only position player on the current roster signed as an international free agent is Panama’s own Carlos Ruiz.

Tocci, who will receive the fourth-largest bonus in the history of the Phillies’ organization for an international free agent, will hope to erase the memory of the players who received larger bonuses. In 1999, they agreed to terms with promising outfielder Josue Perez, and in 2001, as they attempted to turn around a struggling franchise, the Phils signed a pair of South Korean pitchers to huge bonuses.

The Phillies, who were struggling for respectability in the late ’90s and early ’00s, threw a large chunk of change at toolsy outfielder Josue Perez in 1999, but he was never able to put it together. The Phillies had seen enough by 2004, when he was released, and after being given a tryout by the Texas Rangers, he was out of baseball by 2005.

Seung Lee, regarded as the better prospect, was paid north of $1 million, while the second pitcher, Il Kim, received a bonus of just less than that. Their minor league careers were riddled with injury, inconsistency and lack of production, and both pitchers were out of the organization by the 2006 season.

With Tocci, Philadelphia looks to turn things around on the international market. After saving their money over the last couple of seasons, they’re ready to go all in for 2011 and beyond.

While Tocci is regarded as a much better prospect than any other, the Phils have signed off of the international market. Whether or not he has an impact at the Major League level is a question well before its time, though. Only time will tell whether or not the Phils can turn their international fortunes around with a large dollar amount.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Vance Worley Lofty or Lucky? BABIP, FIP Raise Doubt

Kevin Negandhi was merely filling air.

Dressing up a highlight.

Teasing the Vance Worley story.

He wasn’t seeking to stoke a debate. But however accidentally, he did.

“And Vance Worley, the Phillies rabbit’s foot,” he quipped, and sparked, this morning on SportsCenter.

It just so happens that luck and Worley seem one in the same.

Consider:

Worley’s 2011 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 18 games is .258. As seamheads will tell you, stark discrepancies between a pitcher’s opponent batting average—Worley’s is .218—and BABIP imply good fortunate. They’ll tell you about strength (or stinginess) in numbers, that the guys behind the mound are as influential as the one towering atop it.

Not accidentally, the Phillies are the toast of big league fielding, with a MLB-high .989 fielding percentage and league-low 55 errors. Seems more coincidence than causation.

And if that doesn’t sell you, the blip between Worley’s ERA (2.65) and fielding independent of pitching ERA (3.15) could lure a dog off a meat truck.

So it seems, Worley’s numbers are Philly-deflated.

Why that matters?

It skews the numbers, and how you project his finish. That’s what got the stat geeks so spooked about Josh Beckett, whose BABIP sank to .217 this June—then running a 2.20 ERA—after posting a third-worst .338 and 5.78 ERA in 2010.

Keep in mind, his K/BB ratio was constant between the two years. All other things equal, like a telling metrics of isolated pitching performance, K/BB, the two years served a pretty conclusive sample for BABIP’s ominous implications.

For the record, Beckett posted a 4.13 ERA in August, including a five-run shellacking in Seattle.

It makes you wonder what’s in store for Worley. Jayson Stark did.

“I don’t want to sell Vance Worley short. He’s been tremendous. The numbers … the record … the confidence he’s pitching with tells you that,” he leveled with Mike Missanelli of 97.5 The Fanatic.

“Nevertheless … Vance Worley’s BABIP is only .230, which a lot of people would tell you means he’s been lucky.”

That streamed July 29. At the time, only six National Leaguers had a lower line, and the major league average lingered around .300.

Makes you wonder whether Worley’s luck will wane.

It seems sacrilege to even think it lately. Look at all he’s done:

Last night’s one-run win against the Mets was Worley’s ninth in 2011, and made his latest slew of decisions a perfect seven-for-seven. Over the span, he’s 7-0 with a 2.56 ERA.

The Phillies have won in his last 12 starts. That’s the club’s longest streak of upswing since Steve Carlton (15) and 1972.

Worley threw nine strikeouts, six looking—both career highs.

You’d expect that of a rookie. But he’s not sitting at the kids’ table.

Worley’s 34 called strikes are best in the bigs. The six backwards Ks are tied for the third-most among all starts this year.

Granted, it was the Mets (60-68). But they’re who rocked Worley in the worst of only two losses (he’s 9-2 on the season), Worley’s five-earned run outlier on May 29. They might even be better, last night propped by David Wright. (He was injured in May.)

We thought the streak snuffed two weeks ago (August 10), when the Dodgers dumped six runs on him in four innings (15.75 ERA). If there were ever a jolt to a youngster’s psyche, that was it.

But Worley hasn’t buckled, going 10 innings but letting only a lonely run in.

Figuring how is like yoga in 100x gravity.

You can point to velocity and say that Worley’s stuff hovering around 90 mph curiously helps him. That slower pitches mean more pop outs (check, given Worley’s 5.7 percent HR/FB) and home runs (and check, his HR/9 is .55, two-thirds of Cliff Lee‘s), a blessing in broad daylight. Or at least in Citizen’s Bank Closet (103 batting park factor; 101 pitching).

That bodes well for a fly-ball pitcher like Worley, who sends 1.31 balls sailing each time one skips along the infield dirt. With Jimmy Rollins (groin) hamstrung and Placido Polanco’s back teetering, the marriage seems made to last.

Still, you can’t help but waffle. As much as you want to warm to him, Worley gives as many reasons for a pick axe to be ready, in case he ices over.

What it all means for Worley and the immediate future of the Phillies? It’s tough to say.

Except that sports news anchors should be pickier with pontification from now on.

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Philadelphia Phillies Add to Pitching Stable in 2011 MLB Draft

In just two short years the Philadelphia Phillies went from being a team known for their intimidating offense, to a team defined by their historic starting rotation.

Even on the minor league level, the Phillies had a quartet of “baby aces” in Jared Cosart, Brody Colvin, Trevor May and Jesse Biddle.  Cosart has been dealt now, but not before Biddle and possibly May had surpassed him on the organizational depth chart.

In addition to the “baby aces” the Phillie farm system has done a great job of producing talented relievers.  Phillies fans are already familiar with the successes of Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes, while they will soon be getting to know Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus as well.

With the signing deadline for the 2011 draftees having passed, the Phillies draft has been regarded as a success.  Many people are suggesting this is the best draft the team has had since 2008.

As has been previously covered, the Phillies made a strong effort to target infield prospects in this year’s draft.  Given the previous lack of infield depth in the farm system, that is a large part of why this draft is considered so successful.

Additionally though, the Phils did a good job supplementing their already pitching rich system.  This is a ranking of the top five pitchers entering the farm system from the 2011 draft.

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John Mayberry Makes His Case To Be Philadelphia Phillies’ Starting LF in 2012

Raul Ibanez is a 39-year-old with an expiring contract and diminishing skills. This season is likely his last in a Phillies uniform.

So who will be the starting left fielder in 2012?

After the acquisition of Hunter Pence, the answer seemed obvious. Domonic Brown was promptly sent to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in order to get consistent playing time and begin his transition to left field.

The plan was set. The Phillies would enter 2012 boasting a talented and balanced outfield of Brown, Victorino and Pence.

Unfortunately for Brown, his transition is off to a brutal start. Since returning to the minors, he is hitting a mere .191 with only one home run and three RBI over 21 games.

Brown’s struggles have opened the door for breakout star, John Mayberry Jr.

Mayberry is swinging the bat well and has pushed his season totals to 12 home runs, 41 RBI and a .275 average. The most impressive part is that he has complied these numbers in only 193 at-bats.

How would these numbers translate when stretched out over a full season?

Let’s say that Mayberry records 550 official at-bats (Ibanez totaled 561 in 155 games last year).

Using his 2011 pace, he would hit 34 home runs and drive in 117 runs during a full season of work.

Those are All-Star-caliber numbers.  

Detractors will be quick to point to the fact that the majority of his at-bats are against lefties. Some still see Mayberry as a platoon player and doubt his ability to produce consistently over a full season.

However, the flip side of that argument is that he has been able to post these numbers in spite of being bounced around and given irregular playing time.

Mayberry would also provide the Phillies with a significant defensive boost in left field. He is an above-average defensive player with solid range and instincts.

If Mayberry keeps hitting at this pace, the left field job should be his to lose in 2012.

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11 Pitchers You Would Trust Most Starting Big September Games

September baseball is right around the corner and there are some great divisional races shaping up which should make for a terrific last month of the season. Teams that get hot at the right time (i.e. San Francisco Giants 2010) late in a season can use that momentum to carry them to a long postseason run.

Great pitching and timely hitting is what wins in the playoffs and most of the top teams in each division have an ace they can rely on when they need a victory. In some team’s cases they have more than one.

September baseball is when a team relies on their ace more than ever in the regular season. Here are the 11 starting pitchers you should trust most starting in September.

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Roy Halladay vs. Clayton Kershaw: Sizing Up the NL Cy Young Front-Runners

The Cy Young picture is coming into focus in the National League.

Everybody is zooming in on the Philadelphia Phillies’ Roy Halladay and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.

However, they are different pitchers. East Coast versus West Coast, righty versus lefty—but both are dominant.

Let’s take a look at the so-called tale of the tape and compare these two aces.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Utility Man John Mayberry Jr. the Next Jayson Werth?

“It’s better late than never” is a fitting cliche for Phillies utility man John Mayberry Jr. The late bloomer has been coming into his own as of late, developing into a key offensive weapon. His play is reminiscent of a former member of the team that had a similar rise to stardom, Jayson Werth. 

Mayberry, 27, is making the most of his opportunities and looking like the player worthy of being taken in the first round of the 2002 and 2005 drafts. He struggled early in the season, as he was sent down to Triple-A on two occasions.

However, his recent play will ensure he remains with the club for the duration of the season. 

Mayberry has put up impressive numbers in the limited time he has been with the big club. He is batting .275 with 13 doubles,12 home runs and 41 RBI in 76 games and just 193 at-bats. His 12 home runs are now fifth-most on the team.

To put that in perspective, All-Star Shane Victorino has hit two more homers than Mayberry in 192 more at-bats, or almost twice as many as Mayberry. 

Just four years ago, Werth was on the verge of turning into a good player for the Phillies. In 2007, Werth hit .298 with 11 doubles, eight home runs and 41 RBI in 94 games and 255 at-bats. The next season Werth emerged as one of the Phillies best players batting .273 with 16 doubles, 24 home runs and 64 RBI in 134 games.

For what it’s worth (no pun intended), Mayberry is already having a better 2011 than Werth’s 2007 season.

Mayberry and Werth are very similar: Werth was the 22nd pick in the 1997 draft while Mayberry was the 19th pick in 2005. Werth did not make his debut until five years later, while it took four years for Mayberry to break into the big leagues. Both are about the same stature—Mayberry stands at 6’6” and 230 pounds compared to Werth, who is 6’5” and 220 pounds.

Mayberry will turn 28 in December and Werth turned 28 in 2007, right before he burst onto the scene. 

However, Domonic Brown, who is currently with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, is supposed to be the Phillies’ outfielder of the future. It is likely he will be called up to the majors for the Phillies’ presumed playoff run, but Mayberry has played the way many thought Brown would. 

Mayberry could pay big dividends if given the chance, especially with the protection provided by the Phillies’ loaded lineup.

The Phillies still have plenty of time to sort through their outfield dilemma, but Mayberry should be given serious consideration for the starting outfield position next season.  

Also on Phillies 101.

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