Philadelphia Phillies: Would Charlie Manuel Not Start Roy Halladay in Game 1?

The Philadelphia Phillies are an incredible 77-40 on the season and they are running away with the NL East once again. The talk of the Atlanta Braves and their great rotation, dominant bullpen and star-studded young lineup has finally subsided a bit, and it’s never to early to start thinking about the postseason.

The Phillies have an interesting dilemma on their hands as they have three pitchers in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels who could be the a Game 1 starter for almost any team in baseball.

We have seen the brilliance of Lee on the biggest of stages time and time again, and Hamels may be the Phillies’ best pitcher since the All-Star break of last season.

Halladay is widely considered the best pitcher in baseball. He proved last year that he can be even more dominant in the postseason after throwing only the second no-hitter in playoff history in his first ever postseason start.

It seems at times that manager Charlie Manuel will secede to the great Halladay when he walks to the mound for a conversation. If Halladay wants to keep pitching, you better believe he is going to keep pitching.

Does Manuel have to at least consider throwing potential NL Cy Young Award winner Cole Hamels in Game 1 of the NLDS? What if Halladay unexpectedly loses a couple of games?

The Phillies have dominated this season because of their pitching, and it seems like whoever is out there finds a way to pitch a gem. You can’t expect to have the lowest ERA among starters in MLB without contributions from everyone.

Should Manuel even bother with what has already been one of the greatest seasons ever for a Phillies team? The better question is, would he?

Halladay is clearly an elite pitcher, and this is all hypothetical at this point, but it would be interesting to see if Manuel would be willing to start either Lee or Hamels if Halladay lost three or four consecutive games before the playoffs begin.

Would you consider pitching Halladay after Hamels, Lee or both in a playoff series if Halladay was to struggle down the stretch? Good thing Halladay is the “Doc” and Manuel doesn’t seem to ever have to worry about him struggling.

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Chase Utley: Do Phillies Need the 2009 World Series Version to Win It All?

Well, do they?  Before answering this question we must take a look back at Chase Utley’s record-setting 2009 World Series performance.  First, the numbers:

In the six games (the Yankees beat the Phillies 4-2,) Utley had five home runs, eight RBI, seven runs scored, one double, four walks, one stolen base, and five strikeouts.  He had a .286 average for the Series and a 1.448 OPS.

Utley hit two home runs in Game 1, one in Game 4 and two more in Game 5.  Since the two he hit in Game 1 came off of lefty CC Sabathia, Utley joined Babe Ruth as only the second left-handed batter to hit two home runs in a World Series game against a left-handed pitcher. 

Utley’s five total home runs tied him with Reggie Jackson as the only players to hit five home runs in a single World Series.  Reggie Jackson hit five home runs for the Yankees in their 1977 World Series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It would seem very unlikely that Utley would be able to repeat his 2009 World Series performance.  In fact, Utley could have a very good World Series and still not be the “2009 World Series version.”

So assuming that the odds of Utley repeating his 2009 performance are indeed slim, what does that mean for the Phillies 2011 chances of winning it all? 

Not much.  Why not?  Let me count down the reasons why.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Success Across the Board After Hunter Pence Trade

The Phillies have just finished off their best 10-game road trip in franchise history by going 9-1.

A large part of the success that the Phillies have been enjoying can be attributed to Hunter Pence providing some offense in support of strong pitching.

He has only been in Philadelphia for 12 games, but he is batting .347 with three home runs and nine RBI. So far, I think that most people would consider this a good trade. Of course, in five or 10 years, the success of this trade will be determined by how well the prospects that the Phillies traded turned out.

For now, though, the Phillies seem to have made a good deal.

The other implication of this trade was obviously that Domonic Brown went down to Triple-A to be repositioned in left field. However, this move sounds like it is going pretty well so far as well.

According to an article in the Philadelphia Inquirer last week, Brown seemed optimistic about the move:

“They told me keep my head up and keep working, and they had great plans for the future and present as well. I took it for what it was worth and came down and got to work.”

His confidence was not shaken by being demoted, and that is very important.

His batting average has been slipping a little bit during this latest stay in Lehigh Valley. Over his last 10 games, he is only batting .206. One incredibly bright spot, however, is that his on-base percentage is up to .364 during this time.

It is so much higher than his batting average because he is actually drawing walks. The hits will start coming, and Brown will be an effective Phillie again next year.

Overall, the Phillies seem to be stronger because of that trade and Brown is getting the playing time he needs to learn left Field.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Who Has Been Their Biggest Ace and Will He Win the CYA?

The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2011 season with one of the most heralded and hyped starting rotations in decades.

They were called everything from The Four Aces (or Phour Aces, if you prefer) to R2C2, to Mound Rushmore, and the sky was the limit for them this year.

In large part, they have collectively met the hype so far—indeed, it would have been almost impossible for them to have exceeded it.

The amazing thing about their success is not the wonderful pitching of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, but the fact that rookie Vance Worley has come to the fore (or is it the four?) and picked up the slack for Roy Oswalt, who has been beset with injuries this year.

Even Kyle Kendrick has pitched quite well when called upon, making Phillies fans forget about Joe Blanton, a pretty good pitcher for them over the years, but clearly the fifth wheel on an elite sports car that was graced with four big wheels.

With an MLB-best 77-40 record, the Phils are all but assured of a playoff berth, and the best record in the National League.

The remaining eight or nine starts apiece for the rotation may well sort out whether Oswalt or Worley will be the No. 4 man in the playoff rotation, with the probable front three of Halladay, Lee and Hamels.

But of those three, who has been their ace among aces?

And if I had to fill out my NL Cy Young Award ballot right now, who would make my top 10?

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Philadelphia Phillies: Re-Sign Jimmy Rollins or Suffer the Consequences

Perhaps the biggest storyline for the Philadelphia Phillies heading into this year’s offseason will be the contract situation with shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

Rollins, who has only ever known Philadelphia as his home in the big leagues, is set to become a free agent for the first time in his career after the 2011 season, marking the end of his six-year, $48.5 million contract. 

Naturally, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company will need to ask themselves several questions regarding Rollins’ future with the organization. But what it all really boils down to is whether or not the Phillies actually want to bring Rollins back, and if they do, what they willing to pay for his services.

Rollins, who is now the longest tenured athlete in Philadelphia, has rung up his share of career accolades during his 12 seasons with the team—three All-Star selections, three Gold Glove Awards, a Silver Slugger Award, a MVP selection and a World Series ring, to name a few.

He has a career batting average of .272, an on-base percentage of .329 and has the third highest fielding percentage all time among shortstops. He has also, arguably, surpassed Larry Bowa as the best Phillies shortstop in franchise history. Manager Charlie Manuel has in the past referred to him as the “catalyst” of the team.

But since his MVP year in 2007, Rollins has seen a steady decline in his game, having suffering a number debilitating injuries.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that several Phillies fans are ready to see Rollins go. They argue that Rollins is not the player he used to be, and is not worth another contract extension.

At a closer look, however, it’s quite apparent that Rollins continues to play an important role in the success of the club. This year, Rollins has a mediocre average of .267. But the 32-year-old switch-hitter continues to garner several clutch hits, with an impressive .303 batting average and an on-base percentage of .403 with runners in scoring position.  

Rollins has also played been an instrumental force in the team’s dominance in postseason play. Since 2008, the Phillies are a solid 19-7 when Rollins has at least one hit. They are an incredible 15-0 when he scores at least one run. 

But if, after all these years, the Phils opt to part ways with Rollins, who’s going to take his place? Shane Victorino would likely become the lead-off hitter, which is not a problem considering Rollins was never a typical lead-off hitter anyway. But, with no highly-ranked shortstop prospects in the farm system, the Phillies cannot rely on anyone in-house to fill the void created by Rollins’ departure.

So then, the next obvious step would be to look at the free agent market for shortstops. There, the only two notable names are Jose Reyes and Rollins himself. Reyes would, undoubtedly be an improvement over Rollins, but it’s unlikely the Phillies will be able to financially afford adding another big name player to the roster.

If not Rollins at shortstop, it will likely be an okay talent with an okay bat and an okay glove. Good shortstops are just not easy to find this day and age. And after 11 straight seasons of having one, a sudden change to mediocrity is not something the Phillies want in their lineup.

Granted, the Rollins situation is not the only problem the Phils will need to address this offseason. Reliever Ryan Madson needs to be re-signed and starter Cole Hamels is due for a contract extension.

But, with the Phillies’ recent willingness to spend as much money as necessary to win, outbidding other clubs for Rollins should not be a ground-breaking issue for management.    

After five year, it’s easy to forget where this Phillies’ run of league-wide domination actually started. It all began on January 23, 2007 after Rollins made one of the most talked-about comments in team history. “I think we are the team to beat in the NL East—finally,” he said.

The most daunting question facing the Phillies this offseason is whether or not they can remain “the team to beat” without Rollins manning shortstop. 

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Roy Oswalt Returns: Should the Philadelphia Phillies Go With a 6-Man Rotation?

With Roy Oswalt returning to the Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation earlier this week, it’s time for the Phillies to utilize a six-man rotation. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Kyle Kendrick and Oswalt would be arguably the best six-man rotation in MLB history.

When the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee in the offseason, we knew that they would have an excellent starting rotation, and they have not disappointed us fans.

The team has a season ERA of 3.04, 14 complete games, 15 shutouts, 78 quality starts and 282 walks—all of which are the best of any team in the MLB.

While these numbers suggest that the team has not had any problems with their rotation, that is not entirely true.

Roy Oswalt has had two leaves from the team: the first for personal issues ad the second for an injury. Joe Blanton was supposed to be the fifth starter—and one of the best fifth starters we have ever seen—but he struggled at first, and he was injured when he seemed to be getting back on track. Blanton was replaced by Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick.

Kendrick was coming from the bullpen and needed time to adjust, while Worley was coming from Triple-A and was ready to step up. The two have been starters in the rotation at times, and they have recently been the fourth and fifth-starters in the rotation. The two have both done very well as starters this season. Worley is 8-1 with an ERA of 2.85 and a WHIP of 1.17, while Kendrick is 7-5 with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.27 as both a starter and a reliever.

Worley has been stellar all season, while Kendrick has turned it on as of late, including an eight-inning shutout in his last start.

With Oswalt coming back, the team is looking to their $16 million pitcher to return to form as an ace. That meant that either Kendrick or Worley needed to be removed from the rotation. The Phillies decided to return Kendrick to the bullpen, but that is not their best option.

Kendrick has proven that he is a viable option at starter. He would in no way be a weak link that would hold them back from the playoffs, or even the best record in the MLB. This means that the Phillies have six pitchers that would be a third-starter or better on most rotations, and they need to go with a six-man rotation for the rest of the 2011 MLB season.

A six-man rotation would work just as well as a five-man rotation, but obviously that is not the only reason that the Phillies should switch to a six-man rotation.

The Phillies must switch to a six-man rotation in order to rest their best starters. Of their four aces, Lee is 32, Oswalt is 33 and has had injury problems and Halladay is 34 and does not have the same stamina as he has had before.

Oswalt surrendered 12 hits and two walks in only six innings pitched. He had a WHIP of 2.33, and he was hit pretty hard by the San Francisco Giants, who have only scored only 405 runs and are hitting only .241 this season. Oswalt struggled, and he certainly needs more time to rest while recovering from his injury so that he does not re-injure himself.

Halladay has been working incredibly hard this season by throwing a lot of pitches. He is going to need some rest so that he does not burn out in the playoffs. Halladay has made 24 starts, throwing less than 100 in only three, and less than 97 in only one. He has worked hard for years, but he seems to be working even more this season than in the past, and he is obviously the oldest he has been. Aging leads to a lack of stamina for most people, and Halladay is going to need some rest. It would be preferable for him to get that rest now instead of in September.

While rest is something that older pitchers definitely need, it can go a long way for younger pitchers too. Pitching on five days’ rest instead of four produces great results, and it could be good for younger pitchers like Hamels who is 27, Kendrick who is 26 and Worley who is 23.

These three pitchers need rest almost as much as Halladay, Oswalt and Lee do. A six-man rotation would be a great way to save the pitchers’ arms from wear and tear that occurs during a 162-game regular season. They would be well-rested for the postseason, and that is what matters most to the Phillies right now.

The Phillies are almost guaranteed to make it into the postseason. They lead the NL East by 8.5 games over the Atlanta Braves, and they would lead the NL Wild Card by 13.5 games if passed by the Braves. Their pitching staff and newly-enhanced offense will carry them to the postseason no matter how many pitchers are in their starting rotation, so it is important to rest their pitchers for the postseason.

It appears that going to a six-man rotation would give the Phillies the best chance to win in the postseason while saving their pitchers from injuries that could hurt their seasons or their career. It is the best thing that the Phillies can do right now.

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Phillies Winning Ways Put Them in Great Position…Or Does It?

It turns out that Cliff Lee wasn’t content with just throwing eight innings of shutout baseball while only giving up four hits and striking out 10 batters. In proverbial icing on top of the cake fashion, Lee also blasted a seventh inning home-run off of Ted Lilly that would end up being the game winning run.

The result was the Phillies‘ 11th win in 12 games and leaves the Phils with a season record that now stands at 76-40, the best record in the Major Leagues. It also puts them eight and a half games ahead of the Braves and everyone else in the National League.

At first glance, this would seem to make the Phillies the favorites to make the World Series and win it, but as I’ll show you a little later in this article, the most dominant regular season team has struggled quite a bit to cap off those seasons with World Series victories.

With 46 games remaining in the 2011 season, the Fightin’s have an excellent chance at winning 100 games for the first time since 1977. Winning a Benjamin’s worth of games has only been done twice in the entire history of the Philadelphia franchise, which goes all the way back to 1883 and those world-beaters known as the Philadelphia Quakers, though to be fair, even a perfect season wouldn’t have accomplished that because they only played 99 games back then.

The franchise record for wins in a season is 101 games, which the Phillies managed to do in both 1976 and 77, though sadly, neither of those seasons ended with a World Series victory. So for the 2011 squad to break the franchise record for wins in a season, they would only need to go 26-20 over these last two months, and considering that of the remaining 46 games, half of those are against teams with losing records, I’d say their probably going to break that record.

Taking a look at some of the more recent teams from the National League who had dominating regular seasons, the 2004 Cardinals rolled along to 105 wins, only to lose in the World Series, and the 98 Braves managed 106 wins but also failed to bring home a ring.

There are, however, some older examples of dominant regular season N.L. teams who won the World Series, including the 86 Mets and the 75 Reds, who are the only two N.L. teams in the last century to win 108 games, a number the Phils have a chance at reaching.

As far as the all-time record for wins in a season, it’s actually a tie between the 1906 Cubs and the 2001 Mariners, who both won 116 games, although the Cubs win the tiebreaker because they managed to accomplish this feat in 10 less games.

Now, I’m just mentioning this as an interesting fact because the Phils would have to go 41-5 to break this record, and that’s about as likely as Ryan Howard laying off a 3-2 curveball in the dirt (Sorry Ryan, I respect your game, but it was a good simile). Again it’s interesting to note that neither one of these teams won the World Series.

So as great as it is that the Phillies continue to win and pull away from the rest of their competition, there is some evidence to support that this might not be as great as it sounds. Teams with massive leads can sometimes become complacent in the last few weeks of the regular season, and then when it comes time to ramp up their level of play in the postseason, they struggle to regain their form.

Just looking at Philadelphia’s recent run of successful seasons, they won the division by six games each of the last two years but ultimately fell short in the postseason. However, in 2008, when they won the World Series, they spent the first half of September chasing the division lead, and it wasn’t until they ripped of 10 victories in 11 games that they managed to grab hold of the NL East. That sense of having to battle each and every game carried right over into the playoffs and helped the Phils become champions.

Every team is different, and with guys like Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and others who never seem to let up regardless of the situation, maybe having the luxury of a big division lead where they can set up their rotation and give some guys a rest will work out great.

Whatever the case may be, I just hope the end result is the sequel that I’ve been waiting three years to see. World F’in Champions Part II.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Cliff Lee and His Self-Win Against the Dodgers

Well, obviously there’s no such thing, unless you’re Satchel Paige. 

But Cliff Lee came pretty close last night, going eight shutout innings, fanning 10 while scattering just four hits and walking two in the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Los Angeles. 

He also hit a solo home run. In other words, Lee did better against a rock-solid Ted Lilly than the Dodgers offense, which includes some professional hitters (and an MVP candidate) did against Lee.

There have been 20 other instances of a pitcher homering this season, including another one by Lee himself.  Here are the best pitching performances by homering pitchers:

Player	Team	Opponent	Date	IP	H	ER	K/BB
Cliff Lee	Phillies	Dodgers	Aug 9	8	4	0	10/2
Daniel Hudson	DBacks	Dodgers	Jul 17	9	5	1	3/0
Tim Hudson	Braves	Blue Jays	Jun 20	8	2	0	8/1
Zach Duke	Dbacks	Astros	May 28	7	3	0	4/1

So, I guess when Win/Loss record and run support comes up in Cy Young discussions, old school writers should just point to these guys and ask what they were complaining about.

Unfortunately for Felix Hernandez—who should really bat about third in the Mariners’ lineup—homering is not an option afforded to American League pitchers most of the time. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins Free Agency Will Raise Big Questions

One of the biggest questions that will face Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. this off-season is whether or not to re-sign team leader Jimmy Rollins.

On one hand, Rollins has played all 12 seasons of his career in Philadelphia and had great success. In 2008, he won the National League MVP by batting .296 with 30 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 41 stolen bases. He has appeared in three All-Star games and won three Gold Gloves.

As an emotional leader for the Phillies, he has become well known for his predictions of Philadelphia success. This year, he predicted 100 victories which the Phillies seem to be driving towards relatively steadily.

However, his future in Philadelphia is of course questionable with free agency looming.

Last season was extremely injury-ridden as he was limited to only 88 games. This injury has affected the questions related to his future in Philadelphia.

For all of you sabermetricians, according to FanGraphs, Rollins is the sixth most valuable shortstop in baseball. He is doing much better than last year because he is back playing full-time, but it is hard to tell if that .266 batting average with 13 home runs and 26 stolen bases will be enough to justify bringing him back to Philadelphia.

If the Phillies did not bring Rollins back, they essentially have one shortstop in waiting in AAA or would need to replace him with another free agent. Freddy Galvis was having a successful year in Reading by batting .273 with eight home runs and 19 stolen bases. That performance turned in a recent promotion to Lehigh Valley where he has played seven games and is hitting .286.

Rollins has become such a household name in Philadelphia that it would be hard to picture the Phillies without him. But at the same time, the Phillies will have to see whether or not his performance is enough to justify keeping him around. I have a feeling it will be enough and he will be back, but I guess we will see at the end of the season.

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Soul Mates: How the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies Mirror the 1980 World Champions

Philadelphia Phillies fans have been spoiled over the past five years.  The team has made the playoffs every year from 2007 through 2010, and they’re a virtual lock to make the playoffs in 2011.  For many Philadelphia fans, 2011 is World Series or bust.

Phillies fans must go back 30 years to find the last time the Phillies had a streak of success like this.  The Phillies of the late 1970s and early 1980s were perennial contenders.  The 1980 team finally broke through to win the World Series.

It’s only natural to wonder how this 2011 version of the Phillies compares to the 1980 World Series Champions.  A comparison reveals some startling similarities.

So let’s take a walk down memory lane to see which players from the 1980 Phillies would be the soul mate for each 2011 player.

I hope you have as much fun reading this as I did researching and writing it.

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