MLB Playoff Predictions: Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Breakdown

It’s time to put away the shorts and beach chairs; break out even MORE peanuts and crackerjacks because the Phillies are once again in the playoffs, and today I will be breaking down the Philadelphia Phillies-St. Louis Cardinals contest matchup.

The Phillies and Cardinals are no strangers to each other as they have squared off nine times this season, with St. Louis dominating the Phillies six out of those nine meetings.

This is, however, no reason to hit the panic button and inside you will see why.

Ready?

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Is a 2008 World Series Rematch with Phillies and Rays in 2011 Possible?

No doubt that upon watching the second of Evan Longoria’s homers in Wednesday night’s game, a few baseball fans thought about the 2008 World Series and the possibility of a rematch between the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays. Most people thought the Phillies had a postseason berth in the bag from the day they signed Cliff Lee, and maybe even more so after their win from behind on Opening Day. The Rays were a different story, as they began the season with six straight losses, ending their regular season in spectacular fashion clutching the AL Wild Card with their final game. So how possible is it that these two end up at the top of their leagues and face off again come late October?

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MLB Playoffs 2011: After Historic Regular Season, Phillies Ready for Postseason

Nothing in life is guaranteed. No game or series outcome in sports is a guarantee. No championship comes easy.

Don’t buy the people who’ve placed the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series before postseason play has even begun. Anything can happen in a five- or seven-game series. Just last year, the Phillies were favored to get back to the Fall Classic but ran into a hot Giants team and were eliminated in the NLCS.

October is all about playing your best baseball. Time and time again, we’ve seen teams who dominated regular-season play, fail. It happens in every sport. The regular season has no impact on how a team will play in the postseason. The Phillies have a ton of work to do to accomplish their goal of winning a title, but so far it’s been a hell of a ride. 

Coming into the season, the Phillies had a bullseye on their backs. After acquiring Cliff Lee in the offseason, many believed the Phils’ starting pitching staff could be considered among the greatest ever assembled. Roy Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt were billed as the four aces. People across the country submitted nicknames for the quartet (the “Four Horsemen” and “R2C2,” to name a few).

Expectations were sky high. It was World Series or bust. And boy did Charlie Manuel’s club live up to the hype, buoyed by the best pitching Phillies team in the live-ball era (since 1920).

Here’s some numbers* on the 2011 squad:

• For the second straight year, the Phillies had the best record in baseball at 102-60.
• Their 102 wins is the most in the franchise’s 129-year history.
• They led the National League East from start to finish, winning by an astounding 13 games over Atlanta.
• They allowed 3.27 runs per game in 2011 (San Francisco was a distant second at 3.57), the franchise’s lowest figure since 1917.
• They led the N.L. in ERA for the first time since 1952.
• Their 3.02 ERA was the lowest for any team since the 1989 Dodgers, who had a 2.95 mark.
• Phils pitchers compiled a 3.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the second highest in major league history. Only the 2006 Minnesota Twins had a higher one of 3.27.
• The rotation compiled a 1.11 WHIP, the best since the 1975 Dodgers (1.09), and their 4.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio was the best since 1969
• The team committed only 74 errors to establish a new franchise record

However, Philadelphia’s work is not complete. In fact, the real season, the one everyone has been waiting for since spring training, really, is finally here.

But history is not on their side. 

The National League’s top-seeded team has not advanced to the World Series since 2004 and no NL No. 1 has won the World Series since 1995.

We know how good their pitching is, but don’t forget about the Phils offense. The team still has five starting position players from the 2008 championship team. The lineup is not as good as it was from 2007-2009—they are an older group (only right fielder Hunter Pence is under 30) and coincidentally were bit by the injury bug. Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz all missed 20 or more games with various injuries.

However, they are still a deep, balanced lineup.

(By the way, the starting pitching of the 1993 Braves is the team many compared the Phillies staff to. Atlanta had three aces—and future Hall of Famers—of its own with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.)

After the All-Star break, the Phillies scored the second most runs in the NL. The acquisition of Pence at the trading deadline provided a huge boost, as he hit .324 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in just 54 games with Philly.

One of the most interesting storylines heading into the playoffs for the Phillies lineup is after losing a season-high eight games in down the stretch, manager Charlie Manuel instituted a new-look lineup (below) for the final four games of the season, and the team responded by winning all four.

1. Jimmy Rollins (S), SS
2. Chase Utley (LH), 2B
3. Hunter Pence (RH), RF
4. Ryan Howard (LH), 1B
5. Shane Victorino (S), CF
6. Raul Ibanez (LH), LF
7. Placido Polanco (RH), 3B
8. Carlos Ruiz (RH), C
9. pitcher

Manuel bumped a struggling Utley out of the 3-hole and into the 2-hole, a significant move since Utley has been the team’s No. 3 hitter since 2006. Moving Pence from No. 5 to No. 3 gives the Phils an extremely balanced lineup.

“That’s our best balanced lineup against right-handed pitchers,” Manuel said. “It splits up our lefties (Utley and Howard), Victorino being a switch-hitter in the five-hole. I think that helps split up all our lefties that way.”

 

Concerns

This team does have a few question marks heading into October, starting with the bullpen.

Overall, the Phils’ pen was very good for the most, finishing with a 3.45 ERA, good for seventh in the NL. Antonio Bastardo had a fantastic season as the eighth-inning guy but posted a 11.05 ERA in September. The Phillies need him to return to form as he is the only lefty on Manuel’s roster. 

Brad Lidge is no longer the team’s closer, although he is second all-time with 18 postseason saves and is a perfect 12-for-12 as a Phillie. He made his 2011 debut in late July after battling elbow/shoulder issues and pitched well in 25 appearances. His fastball is no longer in the mid-90s but he sill has that nasty slider. He must locate his pitches and stay away from walks (13 in 19 and two-thirds innings this year).

With Lidge on the shelf for most of the year, Ryan Madson took over as the team’s closer and saved 32 games, blowing just two. However, he has never saved a game in the postseason. The Phillies will need these guys to step up to challenge and get the big outs. The bullpen was last in the league in innings pitched because of how good the starters were (they led the league with 18 complete games).

I expect Halladay, Lee and Hamels to pitch at least seven innings, meaning the ‘pen will be asked to get six outs or less. If they can do that, the Phils will be in good shape.

The consistency of the offense is another issue. The Phils inability to score was their downfall in last year’s NLCS loss to the Giants. I think Manuel will stay with the new lineup and I think this will make a difference. The key will be if the middle of the order can produce with runners in scoring position. Pence, Howard, Victorino and even Raul Ibanez should have numerous opportunities with men on base and Manuel will need them to produce.

 

Final thoughts

The Phillies will be making their fifth straight appearance in the postseason. This team has dealt with an unbelievable amount of pressure all season and again is heavily favored to win it all. The Phillies are as experienced and prepared for the playoffs as a team can possibly be and won’t be fazed by the bright lights.

This team is built to win in October. The rotation is scary, the offense is deep and the bullpen has done its job. A title is there for the taking. You have to like their chances.

It all begins Saturday evening against St. Louis.

 

 

*Stats courtesy of Bob Brookover and Matt Gelb of the Phillies Zone and Todd Zolecki of The Zo Zone.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Playoffs 2011: Power Ranking the Experience of All 8 Postseason Teams

After yesterday’s jaw-dropping regular season finale, the 2011 MLB Playoffs are finally set with baseball’s top teams ready to compete for baseball’s greatest award, the World Series Championship.

This year, the playoff experience that each team brings is at an all-time high. The Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers have all made the playoffs at least once in the past decade. In the last 10 years, seven of the eight teams have advanced to the World Series and four of those seven have won it. Four times in the past 10 years have some of these teams faced against each other in the World Series, Diamondbacks vs. Yankees in 2001, Cardinals vs. Tigers in 2006, Rays vs. Phillies in 2008 and Yankees vs. Phillies in 2009.

With all of these teams making the playoffs in the recent past, there is a great deal of familiarity on display in the matchups. The importance of playoff experience cannot be overstated and it will be a key factor in deciding who wins the World Series.

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Roy Oswalt: How Chris Carpenter’s Extension Affects His Future with Phils

Roy Oswalt’s career with the Philadelphia Phillies has come full circle.

After initially seeming reluctant to join the team prior to last season’s trade deadline, Oswalt has now ended any retirement speculation by saying that he feels rejuvenated after pitching for the Phils this season.

But what about pitching for the Phils next season?

The same contract option that Oswalt wanted guaranteed prior to accepting a deal to the Phillies is about to make its way to the top of the team’s offseason to-do list.

After losing to the Washington Nationals on September 22, Oswalt has cemented the first losing regular season of his 10-year career, as his record currently stands at 8-10.

The 34-year-old has also missed 53 games this season due to lower back injuries.

And it was just three months ago that his health, combined with his desire to pitch past this season, brought up the possibility of this being his last season not only in a Phillies uniform, but in Major League Baseball altogether.

Now that the Phillies have enjoyed a historic season for the franchise, Oswalt’s decision for next season has seemingly changed.

But what about the Phillies’ decision?

The Phils can either pick up their club option and pay Oswalt $16 million for the 2012 season, pay a $2 million buyout and let him leave as a free agent or allow him to opt out of his contract and negotiate a new, less expensive deal in order to keep him with the team.

The chances of Oswalt passing on $16 million may not seem too high, unless the recent comments from his agent, Bob Garber, are true.

However, a contract extension signed by another starting pitcher may play a large role in Oswalt’s future with the Phils, and in more ways than one.

Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals avoided a similar offseason decision when they agreed to a two-year, $21 million deal on September 15.

Carpenter is two years older than Oswalt and has three more years of experience.

He also previously had a $15 million club option for the 2012 season that St. Louis could have picked up or negotiated a $1 million buyout.

Carpenter’s extension provided the Cardinals with extra money to spend on their upcoming free agents, which they have already put to use by signing Lance Berkman to a one-year extension.

Now all they have to do is figure out how to re-sign arguably the greatest player in Major League Baseball.

But Carpenter’s deal does not only give the Phils a template for a possible new contract for Oswalt; it also takes a possible offseason suitor out of the picture.

If Oswalt were to leave the Phillies, the Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves would seemingly sit as potential suitors as options for remaining in the National League and playing closer to his home in Mississippi. 

But after signing Carpenter to an extension, and with other free agents to re-sign this offseason, the Cardinals may have just removed themselves from the potential Roy Oswalt sweepstakes.

Which leaves the Atlanta Braves: a team that is already set to pay Derek Lowe (9-16, 4.92 ERA) $15 million next season and Tim Hudson $9 million. They also have Julio Teheran (15-3, 2.55 ERA) as their minor league pitcher of the year.

Could Carpenter’s extension with St. Louis have given the Phils leverage when it comes to Oswalt’s future with the team?

One hold-up may involve Joe Blanton and the $10.5 million he’s owed next season.

However, Blanton may also have to have surgery to repair nerve damage following this season. The recovery time could be as long as six months, which means Blanton would have to undergo the procedure in October in order to be back in time for spring training or the start of next season.

The Phils seemingly have four spots in next season’s rotation solidified after the emergence of rookie Vance Worley this season.

Worley is 11-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 21 starts this season, including a streak of seven consecutive wins to start the second half of the season.

The Phillies will have a lengthy to-do list this offseason, with Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Madson set to hit the free-agent market and Cole Hamels nearing a long-term deal.

After initially seeming reluctant to join the Phils, going 7-1 down the stretch and helping the team reach their third-consecutive NLCS in 2010, and having his first losing regular season record after missing 53 games this season, Oswalt’s year-and-a-half with the Phillies has seen a little bit of everything.

But will he see $16 million next season? Or will he see $2 million before continuing his career with a different team?

Or will he negotiate a new deal for less money, similar to Carpenter with the Cardinals, and give the Phils more room financially to re-sign their own free agents?

Oswalt’s future with the Phillies has taken a number of different turns this season.

And after Carpenter’s recent contract extension, Oswalt’s future may have just taken a turn in the Phillies’ favor.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 7 Reasons They Hope To Miss the Atlanta Braves in October

The last time fans saw the Philadelphia Phillies on the diamond in October, they were dodging a San Francisco Giants team sprinting toward the mound to celebrate an NLCS title at Citizens Bank Park.  As the MLB season comes to a close, an even more talented Philadelphia ballclub looks for fall redemption against a much different National League playoff landscape.

Last October’s failure came courtesy of a matchup that anyone following the Phillies had come to fear. After dispatching the Dodgers from the postseason in each of the past two years, the Giants were the latest to challenge the Phillies from the NL West.  Viewed as the only team that could compete with Philadelphia because of its deep rotation, San Francisco rode consistency on the mound and situational hitting to a victory over the Phillies in six games.

What caused baseball’s best regular-season team to falter in the last NLCS was an inability to overcome the only team that matched up with their strengths and weaknesses.  Whether it was good right-handed starters combined with gifted lefties, a shutdown bullpen or a raucous home environment, the Giants always had an answer for the favored Phils.

Looking ahead to the upcoming playoff tournament, the Phillies are sure to be heavy favorites to represent the National League in the World Series, just as they were before being ushered out of contention a year ago.  Standing in their way and hoping to match up with Philadelphia much like the Giants did are the NL East rival Atlanta Braves.

Sporting a successful youth movement and a very strong core, the Braves could potentially show Philadelphia a very sudden exit in a seven-game series.  Because of the intriguing similarities to the Giants team, the Phillies must show a great amount of poise if they are to avoid falling into last year’s trap. Here are seven reasons that Philadelphia should want to miss Atlanta come playoff time…

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Philadelphia Phillies: Can Dream Rotation Win Philly Another World Series?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ dream rotation has been the main reason why the Phillies have had so much success in the 2011 MLB season, but can this dream rotation help Philadelphia win another World Series?

Even with this potent dream rotation, Phillies fans continue to worry about the current injuries to Hunter Pence and Ryan Howard, the team’s apparent decline in play and some are even asking if it is time to hit the panic button.

Don’t get me wrong, the aforementioned topics are a nice way to pass the time as we await the postseason, but they can be easily fielded:

• Injuries: The Phillies’ injury concerns are not as as bad as some may think with Pence and Howard being dealt with on a precautionary measure. Hunter Pence says he feels fine, and Ryan Howard is simply being held out because the Phillies can afford to do so.

• Declined Play? The past three seasons combined, the Phillies closed September with a team batting average of .267 with 5.2 runs per game. Thus far, the Phillies are a little off that average (.241 BA, with 3.7 runs per game) but a lot of that can certainly be attributed to Howard and Pence not being in the mix—keep in mind that the Phillies still have six games to go in September.

• Time To Panic? Not even a measurable question to ask, rather a simple knee-jerk reaction to what is happening now.

So that leaves us with answering if this rotation can in fact win a World Series.

The Phillies will inevitably be fine-tuning their lineup situation as time goes on, as they’ll be deciding whether or not to feature 10 pitchers in the postseason—in favor of an extra positional player—or 11 arms in the dugout.

But what is for certain is this dream rotation that has helped catapult this team to greater heights will be paving the way.

The Phillies could not be in a better spot with this starting staff. The front four have already turned in an outstanding season led by Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee who have a combined record of 34-14 with a combined 2.40 ERA.

Moreover, since the beginning of August, the gruesome twosome have combined for 11 wins, three losses and a combined ERA of 1.55.

Add in playoff whiz kid Cole Hamels and veteran Roy Oswalt (22-18, 3.23 ERA combined), and suddenly we begin to remember just what makes this a true dream rotation.

But again, can they win a World Series?

What has really defined this rotation throughout the season as a unit, are the very qualities that are required for any rotation to survive the postseason, let alone the rigors of trying to win the World Series.

Lee has battled through some very inconsistent portions of the year only to finally solidify and settle down, and Hamels is currently going through the same motion.

Oswalt has suffered through injuries, and failed comebacks from some of those injuries, only to rebound pretty nicely as of late.

Roy Halladay—well, Halladay is really just Halladay.

And those are just a few issues that the Phillies rotation have faced this season.

Look, the point to all of this is the rotation alone is more than talented enough and strong enough as a unit to definitely win a World Series no matter who they face.

However, in addition to the aforementioned, if you add in the Phillies’ ability to support their starting rotation with a solid core of hitters and mix in the over-the-top ability of Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick as added bullpen pitchers, we suddenly begin to see that this is a very real possibility.

Over-the-top talent, the ability to rise above adversity, a solid supporting cast and being able to play as a complete unit are the absolute necessary keys to winning a World Series—keys that the Phillies certainly have proven they possess.

Can the dream rotation win a World Series? I say yes. Without a doubt.

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MLB in the 2000s: How the Phillies Became a Powerhouse

To a casual Phillies fan, it was Jimmy Rollins’ mouth that ignited the seismic shift in the team’s cultural landscape.  But, like Pearl Harbor and the Boston Tea Party before it, Rollins’ prophetic 2007 “team to beat” proclamation was the poster moment in an ascension that was boiling beneath the surface for almost a decade.  

The exact starting point is hard to put a finger on.  Some point to the hiring of Charlie Manuel in 2005.  Others to the firing of Ed Wade in 2005.  A select few will point to the opening of Citizens Bank Park in 2004. 

A prominent majority point to the ascension of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard into once-in-a-generation centerpieces of a championship core. 

In reality, the ascension began long before Manuel could even locate Philadelphia on a map.  Long before Wade became the John Stockton of deadline deals.  And long before Utley and Howard had ever stepped on a big league field.   

In 16 of 17 seasons between 1984 and 2000, the Phillies never came within 15 (yes, 15!) games of making the playoffs. 

Between 2001 and 2006, the Phillies teased their fans with annual September playoff pushes that fell tantalizingly short.

 In 2003, they lost seven of their final eight games to turn a half-game Wild Card lead over the Marlins on September 19 into a six-game deficit when the regular season dust had settled.  In 2005, the Phils closed the season on a four-game winning streak to fall just a game shy of the Wild Card winning Astros. 

The kicker?  Charlie Manuel’s club went 0-6 against Houston including a momentum-shifting three-game sweep at the beginning of September marked by a pair of Billy Wagner blown saves.  In 2006, a 36-22 finish wasn’t enough to overcome a 49-55 start. 

The Phils fell three games shy of the LA Dodgers, who happened to be the only team with a batter record over the final two months, which was three games better (39-19) for that matter.  In total, the Phillies finished second in the division four times and second in the Wild Card race three times, missing the playoffs by three games or fewer on three separate occasions. 

By the mid 2000s, it became clear Ed Wade, Mike Arbuckle and co. had developed one of the most talented homegrown rosters in baseball.  The Phils just never had the collective gumption to do more than just compete for a playoff spot and hope for the best. That is until Rollins grew tired of the hollow expectations. 

But everyone knows about the five-year ascension from playoff contender (2006) to championship contender (2008) to unbridled powerhouse (present day).  Heck, even Mark Grace is on the Phillies’ bandwagon at this point. 

People just forget about the first half of that ascension.  The half that saw the Phillies develop into an on-the-brink playoff contender in the first place.  The half that began in the NL East cellar before cavernous crowds at a beaten-to-shreds football stadium.  

To say the Phillies have come a long way is an understatement.  There rise to power is an intriguing baseball tale that falls somewhere between Moneyball (cheap franchise that makes it big) and the modern day Red Sox (big market team that realizes they’re in a big market). 

Casual fans simply don’t realize how they got there and where they came from.  But even casual fans deserve an education.  So hop off the bandwagon for a second, kids, and get your pencils and notebooks out. 

The die-hards are about to give a history lesson.  As the Phillies get set to embark on another thrill ride of a post-season, let’s take a look back at the 12 most important steps in there perfect-storm ascension from also-ran to powerhouse.  

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Analyzing Chase Utley’s Recent Slump

By now, I’m pretty sure everyone has noticed the Philadelphia Phillies‘ offensive struggles over the last couple of weeks. Of course, when you give Pete Orr, Michael Martinez and Ross Gload significant time, that’s bound to happen. However, one of the regulars is particularly struggling as well: Chase Utley.

Since August 31, Chase Utley has hit a meager .169/.239/.277 in 71 plate appearances. A certainly unsustainable and ridiculously low .182 BABIP is a culprit, but it goes deeper than just simple bad BABIP luck.

Typically, he can help offset such a low average with a good walk rate, but he has not done that either in September. Before last night’s game, he had only one unintentional walk since August 31.

That was his worst stretch since 2007.

A horrendous 11.5 line drive percentage will always hurt a player’s BABIP. His line drive rate has been poor throughout the season, especially when compared to his career mark.

Without the line drives, doubles have been harder to come by. For his career, almost 53 percent of his doubles have come off line drives, Therefore, when his line drive rate drops by almost half of what it normally is, the effect is huge.

The next question is finding out where the line drives have disappeared.

Line Drive %	2011	Career
Opposite Field	11.7%	16.1%
Middle	13.0%	19.6%
Pull	12.9%	22.8%

 

His line drives have been down across the board, but especially when pulling the ball. That brings us a hypothesis that maybe his bat and hand speed are slowing down. To prove it further, we’ll look at how many fly balls are being turned into homers.

Pulled Fly Balls	2011	Career
FB%	23.8%	26.4%
HR/FB%	17.1%	32.3%

Along with line drives, his power when pulling the ball appears to have dropped off a cliff. The amount of fly balls that turn into homers has dropped by almost half. In addition, he’s not hitting as many fly balls.

Couple that with his reduction in line drives, and it means he is hitting a lot more grounders to second and first base.

Some of you may say he’s just been unlucky, as HR/FB percentage can be a very luck-dependent statistic. Again, we have to take it another step further.

Looking at Hit Tracker, through his career, Chase Utley’s average speed off the bat has consistently hovered around 102.6 to 103.4 miles per hour. This year, it’s down to 100.1.

In addition, eight of his 10 homers have been classified under the “Just Enough” or “Lucky” category. By comparison, just four of his 16 homers in 2010 and six of his 31 homers in 2009 were classified the same.

Utley’s September slump is not just mere bad luck at play, but rather indicative of something more. The loss of power and reduction in solid contact when turning on the ball is alarming, and a season-long trend rather than just a one month trend.

Whether it is an undisclosed injury or simply old age is difficult to say, but I don’t expect Chase Utley circa 2009 to reappear the rest of the season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is the Season of No Angst Over?

Early on in the year, it was clear that this would finally be the Phillies season that I had been waiting for: The Season of No Angst.

While the Phillies—especially in recent years—have had great teams before, they have never had a team that caused almost no worry for its fanbase.  Even in great seasons like 1993 and 2008, the team had long stretches where they went into maddening slumps and made me think that the team was destined to fall out of contention.

But throughout most of the 2011 season, long losing streaks had been non-existent.  Their longest losing streak had been four-games long, which happened twice.  But those were just two small blights among a season filled with victories.  For the most part, this team has marched steadily along, winning games at a team record pace.

Obviously, the main reason for this has been their exceptional starting pitching.  When you can send an ace to the mound just about every night, losing streaks become rare.

On other teams, if the ace pitcher has a bad night, it can lead to a few losses in a row.  But if Cliff Lee has one of his few bad starts, it isn’t a huge concern, because the team has a great chance at winning behind Cole Hamels the following night. 

As a result, there has been no point at which the Phillies looked to be in any danger of missing the postseason.  Instead, we’ve enjoyed a pleasant, steady drive towards another division title.  On Saturday night, they made it official when they clinched the National League East.  

And that is where the season took a somewhat unexpected turn into Angstville.

Once they sealed up a playoff spot, there was really nothing much more for them to play for.  They still needed to clinch best overall record in the National League, but they earned that by default two days later thanks to some losses by the Milwaukee Brewers.

With nothing left to play for, the remainder of the season became a scenario where only bad things could happen to the team.  And sure enough, bad things have been happening.

The team that looked like an unstoppable powerhouse just a couple of weeks ago now seems to be loaded with problems.  Ryan Howard and Hunter Pence are hurt.  Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are slumping.  Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes have been ineffective out of the bullpen.

Considering that these players will all be counted on heavily during the playoffs, this has become quite alarming for Phillies fans.  It might not matter if they win anymore regular season games (and the way they’ve been playing, they might not), but once the playoffs start, they’ll need these guys to be healthy and playing well.

And now, the team has lost five straight games.  First, they lost three out of four games to the Cardinals, a team that might end up being the Phillies first round opponent.  They followed that by losing three straight to the Washington Nationals.  Yes, the same Nationals, who have spent most of their existence as the Phillies’ personal punching bags.

Clinched playoff spot or not, Phillies fans are starting to get a bit concerned.  While we may have expected the team’s performance to drop off a bit after clinching, I don’t think anyone expected a complete collapse.  And if the Phillies can’t even beat the Nationals, then they’re surely in trouble, right?

No, not really.

While the Phillies can talk all they want about wanting to still play hard and caring about the games, it’s apparent that it isn’t actually the case.

They may not be running a team of all backups out there, but in every game, they’ve been missing at least one or two regulars.  And while the regulars are still trying to win, it’s only natural for their intensity and concentration levels to be lowered.

Meanwhile, they played against a good Cardinals team that is on a hot streak and fighting for its playoff life.  And while the Nationals might not still be in contention, they are fighting to have a winning record for the season, as well as salvaging some pride by knocking off the best team in baseball.  The wins have meant much more to them than it would have to the Phillies.

Some people are worried that the Phillies will have a tough time “turning it back on” once the playoffs begin.  They’re worried that if matched against a hot team like the Cardinals, the momentum might be a factor at the beginning of the series.  And in a five-game series, you can’t afford to fall too far behind.

I’m not as concerned about this.  History has shown that momentum entering the playoffs has little effect on the outcome.  For every red-hot team that marched their way through the postseason, there has been another that crashed and burned once the playoffs began.

Besides, momentum in baseball usually goes about as far as the next game’s starting pitcher.  The Cardinals could come in red hot, but all it takes is Roy Halladay at the top of his game to cool them off.

I am also not too concerned that the Phillies won’t be able to re-up their intensity levels once the playoffs begin.  The team is filled with playoff veterans who have played in—and won—quite a few postseason games.  I have full confidence that they’ll be ready to go once the games start meaning something again.

So, while the recent poor play and losing streak might seem a little unsettling, there’s still no reason for angst.  We should all just sit back, relax and enjoy this downtime until the postseason begins.

Originally published on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

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