MLB: Will Ryan Howard’s Ankle Hinder the Philadelphia Phillies Going Forward?

The Philadelphia Phillies were without their biggest bat in Ryan Howard, just one day removed from capturing their fifth consecutive National League East Division title.

The three-time All-Star has been battling bursitis in his left ankle for the last few weeks, as matters only became more complicated Saturday. 

Howard fouled a ball off the big toe on his right foot in the division clincher, which seemed to be the final straw. He was already dealing with bursitis in his left ankle, which is a painful condition that affects the bursae sacs—that acts as cushions between bones and tendons in a particular body part. When those sacs become inflamed, the result is bursitis.

The bad news is bursitis typically takes a few weeks to fully heel and treatment normally involves good old fashioned rest and shielding the area from sustaining any further damage. However, the good news is that Howard will have a cortisone injection Monday, which should help with nursing the ankle back to a healthier condition.

As of now, the Phillies are saying Thursday is the projected day for Howard’s return to the lineup. 

In layman terms, it is unlikely Howard’s ankle will ever be back to 100 percent for the remainder of the season. Howard has already been running with a noticeable limp and the time is now to get some relief if he has a chance to be healthy by the start of the National League Division Series, commencing October 1.

This could not come at a worst time, as the Phillies are priming for another postseason run. Many are well aware of the postseason struggles Howard endured last postseason, in the National League Championship Series against the San Francisco Giants. I know, he batted .318 but had 0 RBIs for an entire six-game stretch. For a perennial 30 home run, 100 RBI guy like Howard, that is unacceptable.   

With other Phillies like Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley dealing with health issues of their own, the Phillies need all the firepower and experience they can get if they plan on bringing a second World Series title to Philadelphia in four years.  

It is still too early to to tell if Howard will have long effects from his nagging ankle, but all Phillie fans can hope is that he continues to be a run-producing machine when he rejoins the team later in the week. 

Originally Published on Phillies 101

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Roy Oswalt vs Vance Worley for Postseason Rotation: It’s a No Brainer

The four-aced rotation, once heralded as one of the best of our generation, looks a little bit different than it did back in March and April.

One starter not included in the “Phantastic Four” has risen to prominence as one of the best pitchers on the entire team, ranking in some statistical categories alongside Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. His name is not Joe Blanton. It’s Vance Worley.

Worley has struck his rookie season with a force, dominating opposing lineups and piling up 11 wins and just two losses, all while maintaining a 2.85 ERA. 

The original, presumed fourth starter was, of course, former Astros‘ ace Roy Oswalt. But Oswalt has had his share of struggles this season, with that ever troublesome back causing some havoc earlier this year. 

With his division clinching victory last night, he lowered his ERA to 3.66 and upped his record to 8-9. These numbers are solid, no doubt, especially for a fourth starter. But with Worley’s sudden and unexpected breakout season, the question is being asked across the city… Who would you rather have on a postseason rotation: Oswalt or Worley?

Well, maybe the better question to ask is this: Who would you rather have come out of the bullpen? 

Both questions seem to counteract each other.

Oswalt, at this point in his career, might have limited value out of the ‘pen. Worley, at the age of 23, is likely to be a much more versatile and diversified pitcher, and is better suited for relief appearances.

But is it worth putting a guy, who—in all respects—is having a better season, in the bullpen where his use will be minimized? Under the circumstances, absolutely. 

Oswalt is not among the washed up mediocre talent that so heavily persists throughout the league on a year-to-year basis. He is just one year removed from one of the best second halves of a season from a Phillies pitcher in recent memory. His postseason starts were all spectacular, always giving the team an opportunity to win.

He’s been there before. He’s succeeded there before.

And to top it all off, the only hole in his extraordinary career is the lack of a championship. It’s the reason he wanted out of Houston and the reason he accepted a deal to the ever-maligned City of Brotherly Love. He has that extra motive that in turn gives him an edge when October rolls around.

That’s not to say that Worley doesn’t have equivalent passion, or the same drive that Oswalt has. But it’s a different passion, a different drive. One that does not have the pain and exertion of coming so close to winning a World Series, and coming up just short.

Experience is often underplayed. But when looking back at two Worley-prototypes of past years in Philadelphia, Kyle Kendrick and J.A. Happ, one will remember that their first postseason starts were disasters.

Both lasted just a few innings. Granted, Worley, in nearly all respects has put together a better rookie campaign than both Happ and Kendrick did. But there are several similarities and the comparison does cause some reservations when rushing to the conclusion of Worley over Oswalt.

On any other team, Worley has the talent and skill that is deserved of a spot on a postseason rotation. But not on this team. Not over Oswalt.   

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Philadelphia Phillies: Regular Season Success Means Little in October

This article comes from the blog 90% is Half Statistical and to read the other posts of this blog go to http://ninetypercentishalfstatistical.mlblogs.com

Barring an absolute collapse, the Phillies look primed to win more than 100 games and have the best record in all of baseball. They are ahead of the Yankees by seven games in the loss column. Even if the Yankees won all their games from here on out, the Phillies would only need to go 12-6 to be the sole possessors of the best record in the MLB.

This comes as no surprise. In the weaker league and with a pitching staff as deep as the 1997 Braves, it would have been a surprise if they did not win the National League pennant.

Now, does the Phillies regular-season dominance mean anything come October? How much is regular-season prowess correlated to winning the World Series? Let’s look back at the history of NL teams that have ended the regular season with the best record in the Majors.

Since the World Series started in 1903, a team in the National League has finished with the best record in 42 seasons, or 39.2% of the time.^[1] Looking at the 18 teams who accomplished this after 1968,^[2] only eight made it to the World Series (44.4%). However, after the 1994 season,^[3] only two of the seven teams made it to the Fall Classic (28.6%).

Let’s take it a step further and look how these regular season titans did when it came to winning the World Series. Of those 42 teams, only 13 teams have won the World Series, giving those teams a success rate of 31.0 percent.

However, only three of those World Series champions won after 1968. With 18 NL teams having finished with the best record since 1968, the success rate of those squads was 16.7%. And since 1994, no National League team has won the World Series after achieving the best record in the MLB.

Obviously it looks like the Phillies regular season dominance guarantees them nothing when it comes to the playoffs.^[4]

While the Phillies pitching speaks for itself, the age and the offense of the Phillies raise some red flags. The Philles have the oldest batting age in all of the MLB at 31.5 years. Compare this to the ’86 Mets (28.0), ’76 Reds (29.3), and the ’75 Reds (28.6). In fact, should the Phillies win the World Series this season, they would have the third oldest batting age of a World Series champion.^[5]

Offensively, the Phillies are a slightly above-average offense, putting up a team slash line of .255/.325/.402. Compare that to the more prolific offenses of the Mets and the Reds. The ’86 Mets put up a slash line of .263/.339/.401 and lead the NL in each of those categories. The ’75 Reds had a slash line of .271/.353/.401 which ranked 2/1/3 in the NL. The ’76 Reds led the MLB in each slash line category, posting a .280/.357/.424 line.

While the Phillies pitching staff is better than those three teams, the margin of error for the staff is small. Last season, the Phillies ran into a staff that could match them pitch-for-pitch in the San Francisco Giants.

This year, they could potentially avoid such a team due to the question marks about the health of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens of the Braves. There is one team that the Phillies must be wary of in the NL and that is the Milwaukee Brewers.

In a series against the Phillies, the Brewers have the better overall lineup. They would have four of the six best offensive players in the series. Then, factor in the uncertainty of Jimmy Rollin’s and Chase Utley’s health going into the playoffs and the Brewers have a big advantage offensively.

While the pitching of the Brewers does not match that of the Phillies, they have the right kind of pitchers to win in the postseason. Their trio of starters (Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum) are all pitchers who can get strikeouts when they need them. In the playoffs, that is a critical aspect of starting pitching since it helps pitchers get out of jams with minimal damage. When comparing the bullpens it’s pretty much a wash.

The Phillies have had a remarkable regular season and there is no one who can take that away from them. However, World Series are only lost from April to September. They are won in October. So once the playoffs begin, you can throw out the regular season records. In baseball, all you have to do is get in and you have a shot at becoming champions.

1)Year: Best Record/Pennant Winner/ World Series Winner

1904: Giants/Giants/N/A (The Giants had refused at the beginning of the season to play any AL team in the World Series if they won the pennant)

1905: Giants/Giants/Giants

1906: Cubs/Cubs/White Sox

1907: Cubs/Cubs/Cubs

1908: Cubs/Cubs/Cubs

1909: Pirates/Pirates/Pirates

1910: Cubs/Cubs/A’s

1913: Giants/Giants/A’s

1916: Robins/Robins/Red Sox

1918: Cubs/Cubs/Red Sox

1919: Reds/Reds/Reds

1924: Giants/Giants/Senators

1935: Cubs/Cubs/Tigers

1940: Reds/Reds/Reds

1942: Cardinals/Cardinals/Cardinals

1943: Cardinals/Cardinals/Yankees

1944: Cardinals/Cardinals/Cardinals

1945: Cubs/Cubs/Tigers

1949: Dodgers*/Dodgers/Yankees

1952: Dodgers/Dodgers/Yankees

1953: Dodgers/Dodgers/Yankees

1955: Dodgers/Dodgers/Dodgers

1958: Brewers*/Brewers/Yankees

1962: Giants/Giants/Yankees

1967: Cardinals/Cardinals/Cardinals

1972: Pirates/Reds/A’s

1973: Reds/Mets/A’s

1974: Dodgers/Dodgers/A’s

1975: Reds/Reds/Reds

1976: Reds/Reds/Reds

1981: Reds/Dodgers/Dodgers

1985: Cardinals/Cardinals/Royals

1986: Mets/Mets/Mets

1991: Pirates/Braves/Twins

1992: Braves/Braves/Blue Jays

1993: Braves/Phillies/Blue  Jays

1994: Expos/N/A/N/A (not included)

1997: Braves/Marlins/Marlins

1999: Braves/Braves/Yankees

2000: Giants/Mets/Yankees

2003: Braves*/Marlins/Marlins

2004: Cardinals/Cardinals/Red Sox

2005: Cardinals/Astros/White Sox

2006: Mets*/Cardinals/Cardinals

2010: Phillies/Giants/Giants

* = Tie between AL and NL leaders

2) After 1968, the NL and AL were split into two divisions each. The winners of the divisions played each in the NLCS or ALCS for the right to play in the World Series. This did not hold true in 1981 where a players’ strike split the season in two. MLB decided to grant the division winners of the first and second half playoff spots. This led to eight teams in the playoffs. The winners of the East and West division were pitted against each other in the first round

3) After the strike shortened season of 1994, the Wild Card was implemented and the NL and AL were divided into three divisions each giving way to the current divisional and playoff system.

4) Another conclusion that is easily proven is that increasing the amount of playoff teams reduces the importance of the regular season. This is why expansion of the playoffs is a bad idea when it comes to competitive integrity. Say the playoffs expanded to six teams this season. Then the Cardinals and the Giants would be in the playoffs with the Dodgers just four games out in the loss column of a playoff spot. Please Mr. Selig, keep the playoffs the way they are.

5) Only the ’01 Diamondbacks (32.3) and the ’45 Tigers (32.4) were older.

However, the Diamondbacks, while having a better offense and the two best pitchers in baseball (who had better seasons than any two starters on the 2011 Phillies) needed seven games (and every break they could get in the ninth inning of Game 7) to beat the Yankees.

The 1945 Tigers were the last of the WWII World Series champions and also had the benefit of having Hank Greenberg back from the military on July 1st. Most Major Leaguers would wait until 1946 before they could go back to playing professional baseball.

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Philadelphia Phillies Reaping the Benefits of 2002 Moneyball Draft

By now most people probably know a little bit of the story about Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics and the “Moneyball” draft theory.

With the movie set to come out in a few weeks, the story of how the 2002 Athletics went from worst team in baseball to playoff participant will be told. 

The story that won’t be told however is how the Philadelphia Phillies are capitalizing on the results of that very draft through three top picks in Cole Hamels, John Mayberry Jr. and Joe Blanton.

Phillies RH pitcher Joe Blanton was actually one of Beane’s picks in the 2002 draft. The 6’3, 245-pound pitcher was drafted second by the Athletics and 24th overall based on his sabermetric value.

He was not the flashiest prospect but his other and more inclusive stats, as Beane called them, such as WAR (Wins Against Replacement) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) had him ranked as one of the top possible prospects.

He was the perfect fit for Beane’s “Moneyball” experiment and had great seasons for both the Athletics and the Phillies.

The Phillies’ LH pitcher Cole Hamels was also part of the 2002 draft class. He was the 17th overall pick by the Phillies.

Hamels, who was passed over by Beane because he was only in high school, has turned out to be one of the best pitchers taken in that draft. For a Phillies team that was certainly struggling, Hamels turned out to be a great pick.

Phillies LF and backup 1B John Mayberry Jr. was another pick of the “Moneyball” draft. Mayberry, who was drafted 28th overall by the Seattle Mariners, was another high school kid whom Beane considered a foolish pick.

Beane beleived it was much easier to gauge the stats of those out of a college and as a result skipped over guys like Mayberry. Out of the 41 first round picks, Mayberry was the only one not to sign as he chose to go to Stanford to play college ball instead.

Three of the top 30 picks of the 2002 draft are on the Phillies roster and have certainly made their impact.

Blanton, who was widely considered the Athletics’ biggest success of the draft, came to the Phillies during the 2008 season as part of a trade that occurred in July of that season.

Blanton’s first few starts with the Phillies were great. He was good for pitching a lot of innings and throwing strikeouts. He was a power pitcher and added to the rotation of Brett Myers and fellow 2002 draftee Hamels. Blanton made the Phillies a playoff team.

In the playoffs he was a solid and consistent starter who even hit a HR in the 2008 World Series on the way to helping the Phillies win the game and the World Series.

Hamels is one of the many “home grown” Phils that are on the team. He was drafted by the team, came up in the system and currently is part of the pitching rotation.

Beane’s characterization of Hamels being a “foolish draft pick” has certainly proven false. “Hollywood” Hamels has been everything the Phillies expected when they drafted him.

After spending only a few short years in one of the best farm systems in baseball, Hamels joined the staff. A few years after that, Hamels was the ace of the staff and was widely considered one of the best up and coming players in the major leagues.

Hamels added to his resume by being simply lights out in the 2008 postseason. He went 4-0 in the playoffs en route to winning the NLCS and World Series MVP. He was a huge part of the Phillies’ success in 2008.

Mayberry has only recently made his mark on Major League Baseball. The player who chose to attend college instead of enter baseball was acquired by the Phillies in the 2008 offseason for OF Greg Golson.

Mayberry has been a breath of fresh air for the Phils who lost Jayson Werth to free agency and had their top prospect Domonic Brown go down with an injury after struggle offensively.

Desperately in need of a right-handed power bat, Mayberry provided just the punch the Phillies needed and did so at just the right time.

After being demoted to the minors he came back with a vengeance and was awarded a platoon spot in LF with Raul Ibanez.

His power and speed have helped him succeed and at one point in the season he had 17 extra base hits in 26 at-bats. Just like Hamels and Blanton did in 2008, Mayberry is looking to make his mark on the 2011 postseason.

In a draft that saw Prince Fielder, Nick Swisher, Zach Greinke, B.J. Upton and so many other major league talents, the Phillies have clearly been the draft winners.

Even though they only began with one of the top 30 picks, they acquired two more who have been essential in their past and recent success. 

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Why the St. Louis Cardinals Will Eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have just gone through two series against teams chasing them: the Atlanta Braves and the Milwaukee Brewers.

They made huge statements against both, sweeping the Braves in three and then winning three of four on the road against the Brewers. However, there is a snake lurking in the grass.

The Saint Louis Cardinals come to town as a team on fire. As the Braves falter, the Cards are making their move to the wild card position. As tonight proved, the Cardinals can go toe to toe with the Phillies and come out victorious.

The Phillies have an anemic offense as of late. They are extremely streaky and when one batter goes into a funk it seems to bring the entire lineup down.

Ryan Howard’s only hits recently have come in the pinch hitting role. His foot is shot and does not look to be getting better.

Any time he is on the base path he can only be moved one base at a time unless the batter hits a home run.

Hunter Pence is fitting right into this lineup as he has yet to see a first pitch at which he does not impulsively swing.

John Mayberry, who will be used during the playoffs, is channeling his inner Ryan Howard by striking out at key moments late in games or with runners in scoring position.

The bullpen is an absolute mess. Bastardo has become completely undependable. It has come down to Brad Lidge being the best pitcher for the middle innings.

Any game a starting pitcher for the Phillies doesn’t at least reach the eighth inning, the Phillies are outmatched against the competition’s bullpen.

The Cardinals’ bullpen that has struggled, yet tonight they—with the exception of the laughable Jason Motte and his histrionics—totally outclassed the Phillies’ bullpen which had no pitcher other than Joe Blanton available come the 11th inning.

The Cardinals’ main slugger tonight, Albert Pujols went 4-for-4 and reached base six times.

The Phillies’ four best offensive players in the game, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Chase Utley, went a combined 0-for-18. This was in a game that could have clinched them the NL East, mind you.

It is becoming abundantly clear as the team heads into the postseason: The starters need to pitch the games of their lives every night. There is no run support. There are no reliable arms left in the bullpen.

The Cardinals are hot and the Braves are spiraling out of control.

When the Cardinals catch the Braves it will set up a Phillies/Cardinals series and there is not one objective person out there that thinks the Phillies can win a short series with their offensive and bullpen issues.

Especially against a lineup that features Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 7 Keys to the Phillies Winning the 2011 World Series

The Philadelphia Phillies have been referred to with many different names throughout the 2011 season. The best team in baseball, the best pitching rotation in history, World Series favorites, the Four Aces and my personal favorite, the Miami Heat of baseball.

Well, we all know how the Miami Heat fared when it came to the playoffs, but the Phillies expect to take a very different trip through the postseason.

As always, the goal is to win the World Series, and with the team Ruben Amaro, Jr. has assembled, this goal is very attainable. With great pitching and a stellar offense, the Phillies are only a few steps away from parading down Broad Street.

Here are the keys that the Phillies will need to do to become the World Champions once again. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Milwaukee Brewers Make a Better NLDS Matchup

With a win over Houston Wednesday night, the Phillies are now officially in the playoffs, but who exactly is the best matchup for them in the NLDS?

As it stands right now, the Phillies are poised to either face the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Milwaukee Brewers, depending on who finishes third, so the choices are—for the most part—relatively clear.

So out of these two competitors, who is the best team to face for the Phillies?

Well, you’ll have to read further to see the answer.

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Vance Worley Provides an Unlikely Lift to Philadelphia Phillies’ Superstar Staff

The Four Aces. The Phearsome Phoursome. R2C2. Whatever clever moniker you chose to describe the dominant quartet of Phillies starting pitchers, the expectations were all the same. 

Each night, one of them would walk to the mound and shut down the opposing offense, limiting them to a meager supply of opportunities that they could use to break the string of zeros before them. 

And for the first month, all went according to the preseason plan that saw many experts crown the starting staff as the best ever assembled. 

The starters took turns making pitching matchups look impossible, sending endless streams of hitters back to the dugout and throwing deep into their starts. But with a simple string of injury-related and personal problems that kept Roy Oswalt off the mound, the strategy began to waver—along with the team’s record.

At the other end of Roy O’s struggles was an unproven kid from Northern California who had shown flashes of potential in the latter portion of 2010.

Vance Worley, a third-round pick by the Phillies in 2008, eagerly answered the bell and stabilized the rotation during Oswalt’s personal leave due to tornado damage in his hometown. After being relegated to the bullpen upon his return and sent back to the Minors following a poor start in New York, frustration with his uncertain role pushed him to another level. 

Worley earned his way back after three strong starts in Triple-A Lehigh Valley and used his call-up as an opportunity to lead the Phillies in interleague play. 

The Long Beach State product went 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA in June against American League teams, topped off by a dominating seven-inning outing against the Boston Red Sox. With Oswalt landing on the DL once again due to a sore back coupled with Joe Blanton’s long-term injury leave, Worley’s spot in the rotation was permanent and more vital than ever.

Known as “the Vanimal” by Phillies faithful, Worley picked up confidence heading into July and further validated his re-call from Triple-A by posting a 4-0 record in July with a stellar 2.04 ERA.  The young starter took pressure off of the aces pitching ahead of him in the rotation and displayed an uncanny ability to record called strikeouts.

Now, 103 Ks into his 2011 campaign, Vance Worley has established himself as a strong candidate for NL Rookie of the Year with a reputation bolstered by an impressive team win streak during his starts. 

From the time of his second call-up on June 18 until his second loss of the season last week against Milwaukee, the Phillies won all 14 of his starts—a record only surpassed by Steve Carlton’s mark of 15 set in 1972.

Consistency and poise have allowed the 23-year-old right-hander to take the mound with a swagger unseen in most rookie starters. Compared to Kyle Kendrick’s success as a rookie or J.A. Happ’s stint as a rising talent, Worley radiates a feeling that he can work all nine frames on any given night. The faith that Philadelphia places in him will make him an asset come October, whether he starts Game 4 or marches in from the bullpen.

His likeability in the City of Brotherly Love goes far beyond what he means to the team on the mound. Interaction with fans and the ability to handle the label of rising star at such a young age makes him an immediate fan favorite in a city that is hard to please. 

Worley regularly chats and answers questions from his growing fanbase on Twitter, making the most of his time on the road by giving supporters an inside look at his changing life. Willing to discuss anything from his love of cars to good workout habits, “@Vanimal_49” has carved a home for himself in Philadelphia.

Worley’s impact on the team is much more than what shows on his impressive stat lines at the end of each outing. His unique appearance and emotional play add character to a clubhouse that is already overflowing with colorful personalities. 

As a young player enjoying success, the first-year hurler also serves as an example for other newcomers walking into the clubhouse for the first time, namely Mike Stutes and Michael Schwimmer. 

Still, in any town, results on the field mean much more than the habits away from the diamond—a fact that Worley seems to understand. From challenging his demotion in late May to maintaining a healthy physical routine, the rookie seems determined to drop his anchor at the major league level. 

Learning from the superstar staff he was brought up to relieve would be a great first step.

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Why the Philadelphia Phillies Can Win World Series Behind Roy Halladay

Another year, another clinch.

While securing the Philadelphia Phillies‘ fifth straight playoff appearance with a complete-game, shutout victory over the Houston Astros (the same route taken to last year’s division championship), Roy Halladay proved again why he’s the best pitcher in the National League.

An ace among aces, the veteran hurler ranks among the NL’s top five in every major statistical category (ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, wins) and looks poised to lead his Phillies back to the World Series.

There is no safer bet in the chaos of playoff baseball than Roy Halladay on the mound in October. Here’s why.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Surprising Similarities Between 2008 and 2011

When the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, it was a bit of a surprise.  No one had picked them to win it all when the season began.  In fact, Las Vegas odds had the Phillies at 20-1 making them a distant 10th overall.

2011, however, is a different story.  The day that GM Ruben Amaro stunned the baseball world by acquiring pitcher Cliff Lee, his Phillies instantly became the odds on favorite to win it all.

Unlike the 2008 Phillies, the 2011 team has had title expectations from the start.  There would be no sneaking up on anyone this year.  In fact, to many without a World Series Championship, this season will not be considered a success no matter how many regular season games the Phillies win.

We have all heard about the differences between these two teams, mainly that the 2011 team wins with their starting pitching while in 2008 they did it largely with their bats.  So this stat might surprise you:  The 2011 Phillies current team batting average is .253.  What was the regular season team batting average for that high-scoring, World Series winning 2008 team?  It was .255.

Surprised?  Well here are five more surprising similarities between the 2008 world champs and the 2011 wannabes.  

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