Phillies Playoff Preview: John Mayberry Jr Will Be Key Factor in the Playoffs

It almost looks easy.  The Philadelphia Phillies are cruising their way to their fifth straight appearance in October ball.  

In an all too short regular season, the Phillies have been noticeably succeeding in just about every aspect possible.  However, the regular season only accounts for a ticket to the playoffs; in October, every player starts anew and all past statistics are forgotten.  All that matters is the here and now.

Young outfielder John Mayberry Jr. has had a heck of a season for a player with only 220 at-bats to date.  His .268/.336/.518 line demonstrates his healthy contribution to the team this regular season, and as the playoffs hastily approach, Mayberry will continue to be a key factor of the team’s success, now and beyond.  

Before Hunter Pence joined the Phillies, left-handed pitching had been the greatest struggle for the batters.  Pence, since joining the Phillies, has batted a respectable .307 against southpaws.  The rest of the Phillies core in their lineup has struggled against lefties (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez).  Come playoff time, Mayberry’s .307/.358/.614 line against lefties will come in handy for Charlie Manuel, whether it’s a pinch hit at-bat or a start for a struggling Ibanez.

Raul Ibanez has struggled both offensively and defensively all season long.  Due to Ibanez’s .197 batting average against lefties, Mayberry has been starting more games against lefties.  So if Ibanez struggles in the playoffs against left, or even right handed pitchers, those at-bats will go to Mayberry who bats .242/.322/.455 against righties.  Yeah, that’s a higher OBP and Slugging Percentage against righties than Ibanez’s.  

Before my next point let me make this clear: John Mayberry should not start over Ryan Howard!  That being said, if Ryan Howard struggles at the plate against lefties (like he did all season), or in general (like he did last postseason), John Mayberry Jr would most likely earn more at-bats and playing time in the playoffs.  

Assuming that Mayberry would bat in the middle of the lineup, Howard’s production with RISP would be evenly matched as Howard bats .311 with six homers in 148 at-bats, while Mayberry hits .315 with two homers in only 54 at-bats.  Mayberry would provide the necessary pop in the middle of the lineup if the lineup lacks that pop, and would surely compliment the Phillies’ core of lefty hitters.

With so many disappointing endings to countless Phillies seasons in the past, there is no telling exactly what problems will affect them this October run, but one thing is a given; if the Phillies need a guy to run, field, hit in a tight situation, make an at-bat against a lefty, or start for a struggling or injured player, they can find it in John Mayberry Jr. 

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Charlie Manuel: From Hayseed to Hero

The Philadelphia Phillies won another game last night beating the Milwaukee Brewers 5-3.  It was their 93rd win of the year.  Roy Halladay was… well Roy Halladay as he allowed only 4 hits, one run and had nine strikeouts through eight innings.  He is now 17-5 with a 2.44 ERA.

Ryan Howard provided almost all the offense the Phillies would need with his three-run home run in the first giving Halladay the lead before he even threw his first pitch.  Howard now has 32 home run and a league-leading 111 RBI.

And Phillies manager Charlie Manuel got his 637th win last night moving him to second place in all-time franchise wins.  Soon he will surpass Gene Mauch, at 646 wins, to become the winningest manager in Phillies history.  And since Phillies wins are becoming as commonplace these days as Cliff Lee shut-outs, today’s post is devoted to the unlikely story of the homespun manager who became a hometown hero.  Who woulda thunk it?

Certainly not me.  Although I have long since happily jumped aboard the Charlie Manuel hayride, I mean bandwagon, I was not in favor of his hiring back in 2005.  While I certainly wasn’t alone, I am not too proud to admit that I was wrong.  Dead wrong.  So today I issue my personal apology to Charlie Manuel. But first, a look back at how it all started.

At the time I had my reasons.  After all, Charlie was chosen to be the new Phillies manager from a field that included acknowledged baseball genius Jim Leyland (my choice for the job.)  And it didn’t help matters that he would be replacing my favorite all-time Phillie, the always-outspoken and too often quick-tempered Larry Bowa who was fired after four relatively successful but tumultuous seasons.  

Bowa’s anything to win attitude which fans loved, did not sit well in the Phillies clubhouse, particularly when it involved public criticism of his team.  By the end of the 2004 season things had turned ugly. Disgruntled players complained bitterly both internally and publicly, something had to give and, even after 3 out of 4 winning seasons, Bowa was shown the clubhouse door.

Enter Charlie Manuel.  With his slow West Virginia drawl and laid back style, he was Bowa’s opposite in every way.  While Bowa was known as a meticulous student of the game, fans were dumbstruck when it looked like Manuel didn’t know how to properly execute a double switch. And his accent and now-familiar stammer made his post game press conferences punch lines for Philadelphia’s rabid sports talk radio hosts.  In short, it seemed the tough-minded fans and writers of Philadelphia would eat Charlie alive.

But again I was wrong.

Because just when it seemed like things couldn’t possibly get any worse, a funny thing happened. The Phillies started winning.

Manuel’s laid back style and overwhelming public and private loyalty to his players did wonders for a Phillies clubhouse formerly filled with bickering and discontent.  The team followed their manager’s lead and began to support each other both on and off the field.  They played hard, they played with intensity, they played to win.

And win they did.  637 times as of last night.

It turns out that this baseball lifer who many wrote off  as just a good old country boy knew more about the game of baseball and the men who play it than any of us gave him credit for.  And while he still may not be the most seasoned at the sound bite, his record speaks for itself.  In his first six seasons as Phillies manager, Manuel has guided his team to the best overall record in the National League.  And that doesn’t even count the league-leading 93 wins they have already racked up this year!

But the highlight, of course, was that magical 2008 season when Manuel led the Phillies to their first World Series Championship in 28 years and only the second in franchise history.  At the love fest that followed, no one got a bigger ovation than the man once disparagingly referred to as “Uncle Charlie.”

And what did Charlie say at that great moment of personal victory and vindication?  Did he hold a grudge against the city that had disparaged and underestimated him?  The fans who had publicly second-guessed and mocked him from the day he was hired?  Here was his well-deserved “I told you so” moment at last.

Wrong again.

Charlie Manuel grabbed that World Series trophy, held it high for the fans in the stands to see and yelled,

“This is for Philadelphia!  This is for our fans!  I look around here and who’s the World Champions?  I thank you!”

No, Charlie.  We thank you.  So I’ll finish with the apology I promised at the start.  And this is said with the utmost respect and appreciation.

“Sorry Cholly.”

Now get back to work and bring us home another one!  Please?

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Philadelphia Phillies: 6 Bold Predictions for the Phils’ 2011 Postseason

With less than a month to go, the Philadelphia Phillies are in cruise control.  There is no way they miss the playoffs at this point, so let us look forward and concentrate on what should be a very exciting playoff picture.

I present to you my “Six Bold Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2011 Postseason.”

I am smart enough to realize that a “bold prediction” today does not necessarily equate to an absolute truth.  Anything is possible though.

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Which Is the Better Philadelphia Phillies Team, 2008 or 2011?

Charlie Manuel has done it again.

In the last decade, Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has helped turn his team from a frequent disappointment into a perennial contender.

This year, Philadelphia looks to become heroes in what many hope to be a fairy tale season. With their eyes set on a championship, the team is shaping up to be quite the formidable opponent. 

How does this team stack up against the Phillies 2008 World Series team?

Find out how the two compare in a position-by-position battle.

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Hunter Pence at Heart of Another Second-Half Surge in Philadelphia

As fall approaches and engulfs the end of the Major League Baseball season, fans are annually reminded that all bets are off when trying to begin writing the script for its finish. And though few things can truly be counted on for consistency this time of year, recent history in Philadelphia would indicate that we are once again seeing a second-half surge that carries the Phillies into the postseason. 

Success during the stretch run is as sure as the seasonal change in the city these days, but the way in which the team is racking up the wins is a departure from the normal late-summer charge. Leading this year’s perennial rush toward October is the man in the clubhouse who, like their lineup nowadays, is furthest from the usual.

Hunter Pence is known for his quirky personality and committed approach, and the 28 year-old right fielder is making the most of his opportunity to play for a championship-caliber team in a large market.  Accepted by the city with open arms, Pence is already a fan favorite for his hustle, love of the game and interaction with fans through social media.

However, a display of heart and effort on the field that wins over a tough Philadelphia crowd will never guarantee a parade through the streets in late October. The championship that everyone is chasing is won by what happens between the first pitch and the final out, an area that Pence has covered as well as anything.

Without Pence, the Phillies have traditionally relied on the white-hot bat of Ryan Howard to carry the offense when the leaves begin to turn. And while Howard is enjoying a productive statistical year, the Philly faithful are still waiting for “The Big Piece” to provide the big punch that they are accustomed to seeing. 

With recent injuries to Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, along with Placido Polanco playing through pain as we hit the final 25 games of the 2011 campaign, the Phillies have gotten a much-needed boost from their energetic outfield acquisition.

The impact Pence has on the team goes far beyond his statistical value to the team. The .311 batting average, seven home runs and 23 RBI do give the Phillies a legitimate replacement for Jayson Werth’s impact and have helped get the offense through injuries and slumps.

The most important contribution that Pence has made may lie in something that he has not done: strike out. Batting behind Howard, who has hit 196 punch-outs twice in his career, contact is key to driving in runs, whether it is a sacrifice or a base hit. Pence is averaging well under one strikeout a game at 0.71 per contest, and has corrected a fundamental weakness that has plagued the Phillies when the calendar flips to October.   

What Pence has shown over the course of his tenure in red pinstripes is that he can spark an offense in need, much like his game-changing triple Friday against a playoff team in Milwaukee. With a makeshift lineup featuring Michael Martinez, Wilson Valdez and Ben Francisco, Pence moved into the clean-up spot and pushed the Phillies to victory in the very same way that fans are used to seeing Howard operate in September. 

Pairing two streaking stars in the order as the team makes the final push could be all the Phillies needs to erase memories of their “Giant” failure in 2010. With the way the rotation can pitch, a little offensive consistency will be all they need to ride down Broad Street once again.

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The Greatest Philadelphia Phillies Hitting Pitchers of All Time

This year the Phillies can attribute a lot of their success to the seemingly never-ending array of aces that they trot out to the mound. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and even Vance Worley have pitched this team to the top of not only their division but the entire major leagues.

While the rotation’s success on the mound was nearly a given, I’ve been pleasantly surprised on a number of occasions when the pitchers have helped themselves at the plate. It might not be much but any contributions a pitcher can make at the plate to help himself are huge. Which got me to thinking about Phillies pitchers both past and present that carried a big stick and actually knew how to use it. So I bring to you this list of the 10 greatest Phillies hitting pitchers of all time.

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Steve Jeltz Should Be Elected to the French Baseball Hall of Fame

Unfortunately, the French Baseball Hall of Fame does not exist.  If it did, former Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Steve Jeltz would be a surefire first-ballot inductee.

Admittedly, it is a small field from which to choose. Only nine players have ever been born in France and made it to Major League Baseball. Of those nine, one is still active: Current San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy. He would be the other first-ballot inductee if it was ever to take place.

Steve Jeltz, born in Paris, France, statistically dominates all major offensive categories as a French-born player. He holds nearly all the offensive records.  

He collected more hits, more doubles, more triples and more games played than almost all of the other eight players combined.

Most of Jeltz’s career was spent with the Philadelphia Phillies during one of their darkest periods in recent memory. Following their five-game 1983 World Series loss to the Baltimore Orioles in Jeltz’s first season, the Phillies never won more than 81 games until Jeltz left the team following the 1989 campaign.

In fact, they did not post a winning record until the “Phluke” of 1993 National League championship after Jeltz had departed the team. Their most notable accomplishment was finishing second in the NL East in 1986, ending the season 21.5 games out of first place behind the 108-win Mets.

During this time, Steve Jeltz was able to achieve one career milestone unlikely to be duplicated again: He hit 40 percent of his career home run total in one game.

The Philadelphia Phillies played the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 8, 1989. Though he did not start, Jeltz managed to hit two home runs in the game, one from each side of the plate. It was the first time in the more than 100-year history of the team that this had occurred.

Jeltz is only second to Bruce Bochy on the all-time home runs list by a player born in France.  Jeltz managed five while Bochy was able to knock out 26 during his tenure with the Houston Astros, New York Mets and San Diego Padres.

As a player, Jeltz was not excellent. As a French-born professional baseball player, he was extraordinary. There is no greater player deserving of a French Hall of Fame induction, if it was ever to exist, than Jeltz.

Bochy continues to have success in Major League Baseball as a manager. He will never have half the jeri curl haircut that Steve Jeltz displayed, year in and year out, for the Philadelphia Phillies over the course of seven seasons.

Three cheers for Steve Jeltz and his humble stamp on Philadelphia Phillies baseball history.

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Old vs. New Turf Wars and the NL Cy Young Candidates

Baseball fans, beware! What was once a small neighborhood gang war may now be taking over our beautiful national pastime.

Sorry to be so alarmist, but this (artificial) turf war seems to pose the same danger as the Crips (who wore blue) and Bloods (red) did to one another in 1980’s Los Angeles. Granted, no lives and body parts are at stake here, but the very way we view baseball statistics is.

If you wish to color this great divide, the Blues can represent the Neanderthals, the Luddites, the old-school types. These old men and women—to hear the “Reds” describe them—only look at counting stats and simple metrics such as RBI, wins and losses and ERA. I guess they are the blue-bloods who treasure the history of the game and don’t accept change easily. Or at all.

The Reds are coming on strong, as they are attracted to much sexier terminology such as WAR (wins above replacement). Such militaristic jargon appeals to a new breed, who ironically use a lot of stats that rhyme with “ip” such as FIP, x-FIP and BABIP. They scoff at traditional statistics.

Wins and losses and ERA for pitchers? Batting average for batters? To the Reds, who gives a blip? Please pardon the vernacular.

Of course, this topic deserves a much stronger treatment than I will produce here, but for now, please be thankful that this is not a slideshow or a power ranking. Okay, it does culminate in my preliminary ranking of the leading National League Cy Young Award candidates.

As for these two diametrically opposed gangs, I belong to neither.

I may be too analytical for the Blues and too traditional— and I’d like to think logical— for the Reds. For example, I don’t care much for WAR, but do like to whip out tools like WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched).

Call me a Green, if you will. I want to make peace with both sides for the greater good of the game. I think that many Blues should get used to the idea of going beyond the surface of readily apparent stats to dig a little deeper.

But as a Green, I increasingly see the Reds as more of a threat to the peaceful coexistence of baseball fans everywhere and to the sanctity of the game. Left with complete power, I fear that under a Reds dictatorship, time-cherished stats such as wins and losses will be abolished or relegated to four-point type.

RBI will be considered meaningless, and one day power hitters will be ranked solely on how many homers would have been homers to left center at Wrigley Field in 1958 on days when the temperature was between 55 and 83 degrees and when the wind was less than 15 on the Beaufort scale.

Two notes here. If you think I’m an expert on either the Bloods and Crips or wind measurement metrics, think again. If you think that most of the Reds could succinctly tell you how to calculate more than half of the stats they parade, think again, and again.

This all leads me to the National League CY Young Award race. With very few pennant races up for grabs in the final three weeks of the 162-game grind, this promises to be one of the most hotly debated years for individual contests.

By the way, 2009 was a great year for the Red gang, as Zach Greinke captured the AL Cy Young Award with only 16 wins while Tim Lincecum won over the NL voters with only 15. If 2009 was a great year, 2010 brought unprecedented joy as the Mariners‘ (King) Felix Hernandez garnered the award with a 13-12 record. King Felix’s coronation was hailed as a victory for the stat geeks, who saw the possibility that even the most steadfast Reds would see the light shining from the beacon of inside baseball stats.

Have they, er, we, seen the light—Reds and Greens alike?

Last year, AL Cy Young Award voters had a choice (primarily) between Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27) and the Yankees’ CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18). They both had great years, especially when you consider that the King won 13 games for a team that finished 61-101 and compiled a much better ERA. Hernandez was also superior to CC in innings pitched, complete games, strikeouts, K/BB and WHIP. He led the league in many of these departments.

Last year, my mythical vote went to Felix as well, and I also gave a lot of consideration to another 13-12 hurler, the Angels’ Jered Weaver.

Time, as well as this year’s NL Cy Young Award vote, may help us see if the Red gang is winning this ideological turf war and if a paradigm shift occurred these last couple years.

Let me express one more thing before giving my current rankings of where I would place my top five NL Cy Young candidates.

The Red gang uses a lot of stats that rhyme with “ip” (not to be confused with innings pitched) to quantify what a picture can or cannot control. My quick take is this: yes, there is some luck involved in pitching or hitting a baseball, but the game needs to be (mostly) defined by easily measurable results. 

In trying to determine the most worthy recipient of our votes, we need to look at performance. Strikeouts do add value to a pitcher’s profile and walks detract, but not all batted balls are created equal, and I don’t subscribe to the school of thought that a pitcher is lucky because his FIPS, or PIPs, or xfPIPs or Gladys Knight and the Pips were out of expected norms, or off key. We’re awarding performance, not predicting future success as scouts or general managers.

Before ranking numbers one through five in ascending order, I have not ranked the next six pitchers, five of whom would round out my top 10:

Tim Lincecum (Giants): 12-12, 2.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 200 Ks

Matt Cain (Giants):  11-10, 2.84, 1.06 WHIP, 164 Ks

Johnny Cueto  (Reds, the Cincinnati Reds): 9-5, 2.36, 102 Ks in fewer innings/starts

Craig Kimbrel (Braves): 4-2, 42 saves, 1.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

John Axford (Brewers): 2-2, 36 saves, 2.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Joel Hanrahan (Pirates): 2-2, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

I should also explain that these are my personal choices, and not predictions as they stand now in a very tight race.

 

5. Cole Hamels, Phillies

Hamels’ stats are 13-7, 2.65, league-leading 0.97 WHIP, two complete games, 169 Ks and 38 BB. The third Philly ace has pitched brilliantly this year, but has been stuck on 13 wins for a month, due to a missed start, rain-outs and poor run support.

4. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

Kennedy’s stats are 18-4, 2.96, 1.12 WHIP, 167 Ks and 51 BBs. The league leader in wins (and win percentage for qualified starters) is coming on real fast, winning nine of his 10 starts since the All-Star break. In those 10 starts, he has only yielded more than two runs twice.

His ERA is a bit higher than the top three, and some of his other numbers aren’t quite the eye candy that Reds love, but he’s edging closer and closer to No. 1.

3. Roy Halladay, Phillies

Halladay’s stats are 16-5, 2.49, a league-leading seven complete games, 1.06 WHIP, 195 Ks and 26 BBs (also the best K/BB ratio). Doc has been, typically, brilliant this year, and his numbers are not far away from those that won him a unanimous Cy Young Award in his first year in the NL. He has been just a little bit out of rhythm at times since the All-Star break, but still quite good.

Starts have been moved back due to his starting the Midsummer Classic, hurricanes and biblical rains, and he even had to endure a silly, 13-minute instant-replay delay. Through it all, he’s been great, even if I’d rank him narrowly behind two southpaws.

2. Cliff Lee, Phillies

Lee’s stats are 16-7, 2.47, a league-leading six shutouts—and one out away from a seventh—1.03 WHIP and a 204 Ks and 40 BBs. Given his MLB-leading six shutouts and two Pitcher of the Month titles, Lee has probably been the most spectacular pitcher in the league when playing his best.

Cliff is white-hot now, having won his last seven starts and only giving up six runs in his last six. Still, I have him ever-so-slightly behind…

1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw’s stats are 17-5, 2.45, 1.02 WHIP, a league-leading 220 strikeouts and 50 walks. Kershaw ranks either first, second or third in almost every meaningful pitching category this year, and I gave him a few extra points for being a dominant force while playing for a dispirited, non-competitive bunch.

When Kershaw gets a decision, the Dodgers play .773 ball; in their other 119 games, they are playing at a .437 pace.

So, there you have it. Kershaw has a slight lead over Lee, Halladay, Kennedy, Hamels and Company on my ballot, but he still has to close the deal down the stretch. It’s that close.

Kershaw, although wearing Dodgers Blue, has compiled lots of stats that even the Red gang can embrace, even if the WAR-mongers among them still seem to favor Doc Halladay.

Let the artificial turf wars continue without bloodshed, and play ball!

Matt Goldberg, a featured columnist for the Philadelphia Phillies and all-around baseball fanatic, is also a noted humor author and speaker. For more information, please visit www.tipofthegoldberg.com

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What Every Potential Playoff Team Has to Do to Win the World Series

Except for the American League West, we have a pretty good idea of which teams are headed to the postseason.

As we’ve seen over the last few years, if a team can get into the playoffs it has a chance to win a championship regardless of what happened in the regular season. This list looks at what each of those teams needs to do in order to bring a World Series title to its organization.

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Cliff Lee vs. Roy Halladay: Who Would You Start in a World Series Game 7?

It’s Game 7 of the 2011 World Series, and you have the choice: do you pitch Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay? They are both Cy Young pitchers who have been very successful in the postseason, but which would you hand the ball with your season on the line?

Charlie Manuel may have to make this decision during the postseason, and if the World Series goes to a Game 7, this looks like the choice he will have.

Lee is the pitcher that Manuel should choose, and these are the 10 reasons why.

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