Philadelphia Phillies: A Sweep of the Braves, but a Headache for Chase Utley

The Braves came, the Phillies conquered. The Phils needed one win. They probably hoped for two. Three is almost an embarrassment of riches. But unfortunately that’s not the real story from last night’s 3-2 Phillies win over the Braves.

It’s not even Ross Gload’s league-leading 17th pinch hit, a walk-off ninth inning single that drove in the winning run.

Or Roy Oswalt looking like the Oswalt of old, carrying a no-hitter into the sixth and throwing a fastball that averaged 92.2 mph.

No, it wasn’t Raul Ibanez continuing his hot streak, slamming the 250th home run of his career in the second inning.

Unfortunately, the story as we wake up on this rainy Thursday morning is the 90-plus-mile-per-hour fastball that hit Chase Utley square in the back of the helmet, so hard it left a mark. Utley didn’t seem to duck or flinch, leading some to think that it was the old Utley “taking one for the team,” anything to get on base.  But according to Charlie Manuel after the game, Utley didn’t see the ball coming toward his head.

Although he initially stayed in the game, Utley started to develop a headache while in the field in the seventh and was taken out for a pinch hitter in the eighth. Team doctors decided late last night that Utley would not fly with the team to Milwaukee, where his Phillies will begin a four-game series against the Central Division-leading Brewers. Instead, he will consult with doctors about a possible concussion.

Utley will have to wait several days before taking what is called the ImPACT concussion test. Those results will then be compared with a baseline test given to all players in spring training. That will determine when Utley can return to playing baseball. According to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, the Phillies don’t want to take any chances:

“We think it’s very, very mild, but we’re going to be cautious with him, obviously.  You don’t want to mess with the head,” Amaro said.

No, you don’t. We’ve all heard those stories by now of athletes who suffer from concussions and can never quite seem to make it back all the way. They most often happen in the high contact sports of football or hockey where fear of a repeat hit remains —not so much in baseball where the odds of a 90 mph fastball hitting you in the odd are not high at all.

But unfortunately it does happen. Just ask Chase Utley, who has a grey mark on his batting helmet and a headache to prove it.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Current Phils Who Won’t Be Back Next Year

A team that recently set the record for most games over .500 in franchise history is sure to bring back all of its players next season, right?

Not if that team is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Very rarely in sports does a team remain the same from one year to the next.  Whether they decide to keep their roster the same, let players go, or bring in new acquisitions, teams either become better or worse.

And the Phillies are no exception.

After winning 93 games in 2009, the Phils went out and traded for pitcher Roy Halladay and finished with their highest win total since 1993.

Last offseason, the team signed pitcher Cliff Lee, before acquiring outfielder Hunter Pence prior to this season’s trade deadline.  And now the Phillies are on pace for over 100 victories.

But what about next year?

For a team that has little breathing room between themselves and the luxury tax threshold, and who still has to pay up in order to keep shortstop Jimmy Rollins and starter Cole Hamels long term, the chances of bringing back the entire roster appear slim to none.

Not that the Phillies would necessarily like to have every current player back.

But which current Phils have the highest chances of not returning?

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Statement Series Against the Atlanta Braves

It’s over. The NL East Race is over. Finished. Done.

If the Phillies go 11-12 in their remaining games the Braves would have to go 20 -1 to tie the Phillies for the division lead. Pop the champagne, the Phillies are the 2011 National League East Champs.

The Braves came into Philadelphia Monday as one of the hottest teams in baseball. They were full of themselves thinking that when they played the Phillies this time in September they would be the team to sweep and change dynamic of the NL East race.

Chipper Jones talked about how they conceded that the Phillies would probably win the division but that the Braves wanted to make a statement. He mentioned how the Braves at one time or another have beaten the Phillies “big three” pitchers. He mentioned they weren’t “scared” of the Phillies and that he knew the Braves could beat them.

The Braves avoided having to face Roy Halladay or Cole Hamels and still got swept.

Jimmy Rollins didn’t play in this series and the Braves still lost three straight. They were shutout by Cliff Lee, they were shut down by Vance Worley and just when they thought they got the best of Roy Oswalt, the Phils turned it on with a comeback 3-2 victory to complete the sweep. They out-scored the Braves 18 to 5.

The Phillies out classed the Braves.

They punched them in the mouth and any time the Braves looked like they might get up the Phils punched them in the mouth again. They put Atlanta and the rest of the league on notice that they were still the team to beat no matter who else has been hot since the All Star break. The road to the World Series comes through Philadelphia and it currently does not look like anyone has the ability to change that.

After the Phillies opened the series with a 9-0 shellacking of the Braves Chipper Jones wasn’t done talking. Despite, or maybe because of, not partaking in his team’s utter annihilation that night against the Phillies, Jones re-iterated that the Phillies were the team he wanted to meet in the playoffs.

Chipper Jones should keep saying that. If he says it enough he may even fool himself into believing it’s true.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Pennant Fever Stretches Down to the Farm

Since 2007, the Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the elite organizations in baseball.  They have a laundry list of team and personal accomplishments in the span that goes unmatched by any other franchise in baseball.

The success was built upon by a homegrown core supplemented by trades to acquire additional star power and occasional free agents.

However, this will to win does not exist solely on the major league level.  During these past five years the minor league system has seen a lot of success, too.

The minors are generally seen as a place where you try to develop your talent, which sometimes comes at the expense of winning.  Any winning you can do is seen as a bonus.

For a team like the Phils, winning in the minors functions as an opportunity to get the prospects more acquainted with the high leverage situations you will find with the big club late in the season.

Fortunately for the Phillies, they have had a strong farm that has seen a lot of team success.  Here is an overview showing where each affiliate currently stands.

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Cliff Lee: Notions of Consistency and Luck

When fans or writers talk about Cliff Lee‘s year, the general consensus seems that he’s had a great, but inconsistent year. For example, in a recent article, Philly.com writer Marcus Hayes absurdly argues that Cliff Lee is not worth the money the Phillies gave him this offseason. His reasoning? Because he’s too streaky.

“Lee is on his second run of dominant pitching this season—but that’s what his is, what he has always been. Streaky. He was not better than decent for the first 2 months this season. He was poor in July. For $25 million per, streaky does not equal value.”

Of course, in the same article he also states Ryan Howard is worth the extension the Phillies gave him because of the Phillies’ consecutive sellout streak since 2006. The RBI diehards actually make a better argument than that. So already his argument of Lee should be taken with a grain of salt.

If you look at the arbitrary month to month splits of Lee, sure you will get bloated and minuscule ERA numbers. But, what if, instead of looking at the month to month cutoffs, you look at five game blocks over the course of the season?

Games	ERA
1-5	4.18
6-10	2.62
11-15	2.65
16-20	2.06
21-25	2.78
26-28(3 games)	0.00

Hmm, isn’t that something? By the looks of it, that same inconsistent and streaky Lee looks much more consistent.

And, of course, there’s the problem of using ERA in the first place. ERA, unlike it’s more predictive counterparts, FIP and xFIP, is far more swayed by good and bad luck.

Looking at his best and worst months, there’s one common theme. His best months show extremely favorable numbers in the primary luck-telling statistics, while his bad months show the opposite.

Month	ERA	FIP	xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB%
April	4.18	2.78	2.47	.313	65.8%	11.8%
May	3.78	2.92	3.03	.356	76.6%	8.7%
June	0.21	2.21	3.10	.191	96.6%	0.0%
July	4.91	3.51	2.35	.359	71.0%	18.8%
August	0.45	2.14	2.72	.229	98.1%	3.4%
September	0.00	1.69	2.52	.208	100.0%	0.0%

For reference, over the last two years, Lee’s BABIP has been .286, his LOB percentage has been 74.4 percent, and his HR/FB has been 7.2 percent. You can clearly see how these stats play a huge part in his supposed best months(June, August, and September) compared to his supposed bad months(July, April, May).

You can even argue he was a better pitcher in July than June. His ERA and FIP wouldn’t suggest it, because of HR/FB percentage heavily influencing both numbers, but his xFIP, which normalizes this and other statistics, do suggest it.

In June, he struck out a season low 19.7 percent of batters and walked 5.4 percent of batters. However, in July he struck out 27.8 percent of batters while walking just 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, his strike-to-walk ratio was a silly 8.00 in July, compared to 3.63 in June.

It’s disappointing how many fans cannot look past ERA and record as a way to judge a player. All too often people, like Marcus Hayes, make shortsighted judgements based solely on those two stats in a vacuum.

When a player turns it around, they either attribute it to a reason that isn’t evident or call him streaky. If they took the time, or had the ability to think critically, they’d realize how much luck can play a factor in a player’s numbers. Heaven forbid they go out on a limb and state a pitcher is still dominant after a run of bad luck.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 6 Reasons Cliff Lee Should Win NL Cy Young

With just about three weeks left in the MLB regular season and nine total pitchers in the hunt for the NL Cy Young Award, Cliff Lee is just one of a few pitchers who I feel should win the illustrious honor.

Today, I would like to run through six total reasons why Cliff Lee should win over fellow teammates Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, as well as, the other six or so candidates in the hunt.

Let’s take a look, shall we?

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2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Ranking the 7 Biggest Surprises of the Season

This was supposed to be a 2011 season with very few surprises in store for the Philadelphia Phillies.

In the eyes of most pundits, the Phillies were tabbed to have the best record in the National League, and they have certainly more than made good on that projection with the best record (90-48) in Major League Baseball.

How they have achieved elite status in the regular season has been a cross between a dull formality and a spine-tingling rollercoaster ride.

The veteran-laden team has, as expected, received brilliant starting pitching, even if one of their four aces, Roy Oswalt, has been hampered by injuries. The Phillies have suffered their fair share of other injuries as well, even if the standings have hardly reflected it.

So injuries aside, which seven players have provided the most drama to the formality of the 2011 regular season?

How would this one columnist rank these surprises in ascending order, from least to most pleasant?

The answers to these questions are just a click away.

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5 Philadelphia Phillies with the Most Swagger

With all of the success, accolades, and titles the Phillies have put together over the past few seasons, it’s a given that the team as a whole has obtained a certain sense of swagger and confidence in the way they play the game.

It’s not cockiness, per say, but an overall feeling and expectation of winning is most definitely a prevalent force in the clubhouse.

Here are the top five Phillies with the most swagger.

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3 Major Questions as We Approach the MLB Playoffs.

With just a few weeks left of the regular season, the MLB playoffs are quickly coming into picture.  Most of the divisional races are all but finished, however there are still a few intriguing questions left unanswered. 

Will the Yankees or Red Sox be hosting their first round matchup? 

Can the Angels pitch their way past the Rangers to win the west? 

Can anyone really challenge the Phillies in the National League or World Series?

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Rise of John Mayberry, Jr.

During today’s game against the Atlanta Braves, in an interview, Philadelphia Phillies hitting coach Greg Gross was asked if he saw “this” coming from John Mayberry Jr.

His answer was, “I wish I could say I did.”

Before this season, John Mayberry Jr. was considered a quadruple-A player; too advanced for the minors but not talented enough to succeed in the majors.

He was known throughout the organization by his father, John Mayberry Sr., who played 15 MLB seasons and was a two-time All-Star.

The past few seasons John Jr. has been called up, but had not shown he could be a starter in the future for the Phillies.

Now, John’s name is almost expected to be on the lineup card every night, taking time in left field away from Raul Ibanez. 

In only 84 games, Mayberry is hitting .262 with 13 HR and 44 RBI. To put these numbers in perspective, in 132 games Jayson Werth only has 18 HR and 52 RBI. 

Mayberry has proven he deserves to be the starting left fielder over Ibanez with his recent success. Unlike Raul, he has shown he can consistently hit left-handed pitchers, which  has earned John most of his playing time.

Mayberry has hit .286 with over half his HR (7) and has recorded 17 RBI against lefties. Ibanez hits only .198 against lefties. 

It will be interesting to see how Charlie Manuel handles the Mayberry/Ibanez situation towards the end of the season and the playoffs, but recently he has seemed to favor Mayberry.

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