Is Philadelphia Phillies’ Ryan Howard Overrated?

Traditionalist baseball fans always point to the stats that they grew up with: home runs, RBI’s, errors and wins. Using such stats, the Philadelphia Phillies‘ Ryan Howard deserves to be a perennial All-Star. However, the new advanced analysis tools and formulas give a greater look into a player’s true value by encompassing every aspect of his game. Through the lens of these new figures, the question must be asked: Is Howard overrated?

To a casual baseball fan, a player’s defensive prowess is defined by how many errors he has committed. While that is a valuable factor in determining defensive ability, it is only one part of a larger picture. Also important is the range of a player, as players with more range will get to more balls and prevent more runs, even though that never shows up in the box score.

Not giving up runs is just as important as scoring runs. While that is obvious, it is not obvious in normal stat calculations and fans’ perceptions of a player.

The best statistic to incorporate every aspect of a player’s game is WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  WAR essentially looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace him with a minor league player or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format.  A 2.0 WAR rating for a season is considered average, while 0 is considered a replacement-level player.

Ryan Howard finished the 2011 season with a 1.6 WAR rating, which is below average.  Using 400 at bats as a qualifier, Howard finished 20th in WAR out of just first basemen in MLB in 2011.

In 2010, his WAR figure was 1.4.  With a large group of people always thinking that Howard is a year-to-year MVP contender, how can this be? It’s because the stats that you see in the box score are considerably different from what you see in an advanced analysis.

As good as Howard is at knocking in runs, he is equally bad at giving them up.  Howard finished 2011 giving up nine more runs than an average player fielding his position. His advanced base running statistics also show that he was nine runs below average with his speed on the bases, which was the second worst out of all first basemen with 400 plate appearances.

Howard’s fans have often said that in 2011 Howard had no protection, that other teams were not pitching to him, or were giving him all off-speed pitches. However, in 2009, which was Howard’s last above average year in WAR, 44.8% of the pitches he faced were fastballs, while in 2011 that number was 44.9%. He also faced a slightly higher percentage of sliders and curve balls in 2009 than he did in 2011.

The perception is that Ryan Howard is an elite slugger, but the reality is that he has declined significantly from his 2006 to 2009 years, and is now just average.

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Why Paying for Elite Starting Pitching Is Overrated

Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. The Philadelphia Phillies built one of the greatest staffs in MLB history this past offseason. Writers were handing them the World Series before pitchers and catchers had even met.

The Texas Rangers had been written off as soon as Lee turned them down to return to Philly. After all, how could they possibly get back to the playoffs with C.J. Wilson as the team’s ace? Even Lance Berkman thought they were a fluke.

Guess again, Lance.

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2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Done in by Honor and Hubris

The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies posted 102 wins, more than any other team in the franchise’s 128-year history. They had four starting pitchers who each would’ve been the ace on the pitching staffs of probably 75 percent of Major League Baseball. They clinched the National League East with a whopping 12 games remaining and clinched home field throughout the postseason shortly thereafter. They were the greatest team in Philadelphia Phillies’ history…and perhaps the dumbest.

The Phillies, by virtue of their dominating play, had the luxury of resting players and setting up their rotation going into the postseason. This is not exactly rare, teams that clinch playoff berths often change how they play the remainder of the season. The Phillies also had the luxury to determine not just pitching matchups, but team matchups as well. That was something they earned.

There was an argument going into that final series of the season against the Atlanta Braves (who were desperately clinging to the wild card slot with the Cardinals breathing down their necks) about whether the Phillies should tank the series to prevent smoking hot St. Louis from making the playoffs. On one side of the argument is the adage that you never throw a game or series for any reason. This in and of itself should end that argument.

However, the Phillies could have set themselves up where “tanking” was not necessary mainly by playing the remaining two games of that Cardinals series in September to win instead of going through the motions while suffering from a “division clinching hangover.”

The other side of the argument is the Phillies controlled their destiny and the destiny of the St. Louis Cardinals because over the entire regular season the Phillies were the better team. Matter of fact, they were the best team in baseball. As a result, they had a half month worth of baseball to manipulate the postseason to their advantage. They did not.

 

After the Phillies won their fifth straight NL East title on the night of September 17th they promptly went into a free fall losing a mind boggling eight straight games. Unfortunately, none of those were against the Braves. During these eight painful, though utterly meaningless games, the cracks began to show particularly in relief pitchers Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes. Maybe their young arms were overused by Charlie Manuel during the season. It’s possible. But there was also plenty of time to rest those arms in September.

There was talk of righting the ship and gaining momentum going into that last series against Atlanta. The team wanted to get their full lineup in order. However there was plenty of time to do that as well, namely during those meaningless games between September 20th and September 25th when the Phillies played mostly bench players and call-ups and lost a combined six of seven games to the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets.

During that stretch, when the outcome of those games had no impact whatsoever on the postseason, was the time to get the lineup in order, get the bullpen confidence up and then when the Atlanta series arrived, it was time to rest arms and see what the bench and call-ups could do. If they beat Atlanta, fine. But to put your best lineup out there to defeat an opponent whose elimination would only hurt your chances at postseason success was totally asinine.

At the time Charlie Manuel spoke of playing each game to win. He spoke of honor and how the team owed it to Major League Baseball to play until the end. Rubbish. The Phillies earned the right to play those remaining games, however it would benefit them not Major League Baseball and certainly not the St. Louis Cardinals—who in the NLDS proved to be a better team than the Phillies.

 

When you win 102 games you owe it to yourself and to your fans to set up your postseason in a way that gives you the best chance to win a championship. Avoiding having to ever face the St. Louis Cardinals was the Phillies’ best chance for success. A road to the World Series through Arizona and then Atlanta or Milwaukee would have been extremely easier than one through St. Louis—as we’ve seen.

As a team you owe it to yourself and your fans to make sure you play the final stretch of the season in a manner that allows you to have your rotation set properly. When you’ve dominated the sport for six straight months and have gone wire to wire in first place, then you have earned the right to set up who your postseason opponents are going to be.

The Phillies weren’t concerned with matchups. They believed they were the best team and could take on all comers. They ignored the fact that the Cardinals were hotter than the surface of the sun and that St. Louis’ killer lineup went 6-3 against them and their four aces during the regular season.

The Phillies have their honor. They played honest. They put their best lineup on the field and they played to beat the Braves when they didn’t have to.

The Cardinals have their appearance in the 2011 World Series starting tomorrow.

I’d take the World Series over that hollow honor any day.

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Philadelphia Phillies: What Does Ruben Amaro Need To Do This Offseason?

The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies rolled through the regular season, winning 102 games —more than any other team in baseball by a full five wins — and spending every single day in first place in the NL East.

Then came a quick playoff exit, as the Phillies lost in five games to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS, seeing their World Series aspirations end prematurely.

A long offseason is ahead and GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. should have the following six priorities on his list of offseason goals:

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Philadelphia Phillies: 25 Best Relief Pitchers in Franchise History

Though the use of the reliever in baseball has changed drastically over the course of the game’s history, the concept remains the same—take one of the best pitchers on your roster and throw him into a pressure-packed situation with the game on the line, whether it’s with the bases loaded in the sixth inning or trying to nail down those final three outs in the ninth.

In the long history of the Philadelphia Phillies, more than a few good relievers have donned red pin-stripes, helping to create some of the most memorable images in the history of the franchise. How many of us will ever forget Tug McGraw launching himself into the air to celebrate a World Series title in 1980, or Brad Lidge dropping to his knees to celebrate with his club 28 years later?

In this slideshow, we will take a look at the greatest relievers to ever pitch for the Phillies. As such, we will only be looking at these relievers’ statistics with the Phils, and they have been evaluated as such. Because the game has changed so much over the years, from era to era, a bevy of statistics were used to evaluate the relievers. Some heavy hitters were years pitched with the Phillies, ERA+, and games finished, and to a lesser extent, WHIP, saves and K/9, among other stats. 

So now that we’ve gotten all of that mumbo-jumbo out of the way, there’s nothing to it but to do it. Here are the 25 greatest relievers in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies.

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FJM’ing Howard Eskin- “If I Was in Charge of the Phillies”

With the offseason already beginning for the Phillies, weeks before many predicted it would have, it was inevitable that Philadelphia’s sports writers would have published their own solutions and offseason game plan for the Phillies. I’ve read a few of them, some better than others, but a couple have particularly caught my attention. Howard Eskin’s recent article is one such example.

The overall first impression is that of a high-school writing assignment where the student just has to pound out a 250-word essay. The student doesn’t really care about the details, just as long as it reaches 250 words. I’ve seen better, more thoughtful writing on this very site, even if I do not agree with what’s being said. 

“The Phillies were built to win a championship this year and they failed. If I were the GM, I’d have a lot of work ahead of me.

For starters, if I were in charge, I’d blow the team up. Here’s how:”

First paragraph is simple and gets to the point, no problem with that. The second half teases you to keep reading. I’m expecting massive change. Perhaps some overly drastic trade proposals along with a splashy free agent signing. 

“Resign Ryan Madson:
We have three really good starters — Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. I’d keep them and re-sign Madson as my closer. It’ll cost $13 to 14 million, which may not be easy to squeeze out of an inflating payroll, but it has to be done.

I’d also be thinking long and hard about how I’m gonna add more depth to the bullpen.”

The first step is rather ho-hum. Nothing too surprising. Madson has been the best Phillies reliever for a couple of years now, and is among the best relievers in the game. But $13 or $14 million is a bit steep, especially given the ample amount of solid relievers available this offseason. Heath Bell, Frank Francisco, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Darren Oliver, Francisco Rodriguez(option) and Jose Valvderde(option) are all possibly on the market. If Madson is demanding that much while a Heath Bell or Papelbon are looking for a little less, I’d rather opt for one of them. 

The second statement in his plan for the bullpen is a trend you will see throughout the rest of his article—very general and saying very little. Anybody can think long and hard about a position, but what exactly would your plan be? Who will you keep? Who would you look to sign?

“Beef Up the Bench:
The Phillies bench is terrible. We need power in the lineup.

I’d bite the bullet on Placido Polanco and get a better third baseman. Resign Jimmy Rollins for two years and an option year. I don’t want to get into a problem later with another guy getting too old and too costly.

I’d sign players like Detroit and St. Louis did this year that could actually help you when they come off the bench. In my book, Ben Francisco is done and Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez should never be on the same bench — two weak links in the lineup.

I wouldn’t resign Raul Ibanez and I’m not ready to name John Mayberry, Jr. or Domonic Brown as my left fielders, so I’m going out to get somebody better.”

 

Back when the Phillies signed their bench players in the 2009-2010 offseason, I stated that the bench would still be bad and provided no upgrade. I feel my assessment at the time proved correct.

Back to Eskin. How is he going to bite the bullet with Polanco? Trade him? Bench him? Release him!? Who are you getting that’s better and how?

There aren’t many better third basemen out there. Phillies aren’t getting Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, Sandoval, Alex Rodriguez, Beltre or Youkilis. Chase Headley would be a slim upgrade, but the Phillies would have to trade for him. They cannot afford giving up more top prospects. Free agent Aramis Ramirez is also a long shot, but what Polanco lacks in offense compared to Ramirez and many of his third base counterparts, he makes up with defense, and at a very reasonable price. Over the past two years, only seven third basemen attained more fWAR than Polanco. With a whole offseason to heal, Polanco should be his typical self come April.  

I’d love to resign Rollins for two years guaranteed, but that is looking more and more like a pipe dream. What if you can’t sign him on YOUR terms, what are your backup options?

Here’s the current bench players the Tigers signed as free agents this year: 

And here’s the current bench players the Cardinals signed as free agents this year: Nick Punto, Gerald Laird. 

The Tigers and Cardinals bench players were either homegrown or traded for. Do some research when making such statements. The Nick Punto signing was very good, though, for how much he cost ($750,000) and what he brings. He’s certainly better than Valdez and Martinez. 

Ben Francisco is not cooked. If you were paying attention, you’d notice he actually improved in regards to walk and strikeout rates. If it wasn’t for a low .268 BABIP, his on-base percentage could have eclipsed .350, which is terrific for a backup outfielder. 

Speaking of cooked, at least he’s correct that they shouldn’t bring back Ibanez. And if you don’t want Domonic Brown (who improved his plate discipline and plate control a ton this year) or John Mayberry (third on the team in wOBA this year and higher than Howard), then who is this better player you are getting and how? 

“Develop New Talent:
We sucked our minor league teams dry. We have to find and develop new talent.

And if I’m in charge, I’m seriously asking myself if this team’s too old? I think the window is closing fast if it’s not already closed. Don’t change a thing and they’ll go on to be a good team next year. Maybe even make the playoffs, but they can’t win a World Series and that’s really what it’s all about.”

One word comes to mind when reading that first paragraph, especially the second sentence. That word is DUH. You think that is a novel concept the Phillies are not trying? Finding and developing new talent is easier said than done. Why do you think most draft picks fail? Have you heard of Carlos Tocci or the number of players they paid over the slot for in this year’s draft?

With all of his “blowing the team up” talk, the only changes he made were a new third baseman and a new left fielder, which was almost a certainty anyway, and a new bench, which is almost certain also. If you didn’t know who the author was, you’d quicker presume it was by a random Joe Schmo, and not “the King.”

 

 

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MLB Offseason: 10 Reasons Why the Phillies Should Not Re-Sign Jimmy Rollins

After the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies were eliminated from the postseason a few weeks ago, it became apparent that they still needed to make changes to their 2011 squad that won a club record 102 games.

The most biggest question/concern that seems to be floating around the Phillies organization is if they will bring back their captain, Jimmy Rollins.

As this lifelong Phillies fan’s first-ever article for Bleacher Report, I am here to speak to the rest of Phillies Nation on why bringing back J-Roll would not be good for Philadelphia.

Let’s begin, shall we?

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MLB Free Agents 2012: Philadelphia Phillies Should Re-Sign Jimmy Rollins

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2011 season is in the books, and it’s time to make some tough personnel decisions.

Some notable Phillies players potentially heading for free agency include: Raul Ibanez, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt.

But the biggest name is Jimmy Rollins.

The 12-year veteran has spent his entire professional career in the Phillies organization. Rollins has made it clear that he would love to remain a Phillie but will not be providing any sort of hometown discount.

With Rollins’ contract expiring, the front office needs to decide how much they are willing to commit to an aging shortstop. 

If the Phillies can’t reach an agreement with Rollins he will have no trouble finding work elsewhere.

Here are the reasons why the Phillies need to take the risk and pay Rollins what he wants.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Their NLDS Loss Was a Blessing in Disguise

As quickly as it began, it had ended.

The thrill and excitement of October baseball had barely lasted a week, and the Philadelphia Phillies found their record-breaking season rendered useless. 

But maybe behind the disappointment, disgust, humiliation and devastation that swept so quickly through the city is hope.

It’s now blatantly obvious this team is flawed. Maybe not in terms of starting pitching, or the ability to win games in the regular season (after all, they did win a franchise record 102 of them). But this team, now three years removed from a World Series, is not cut out for winning in the postseason. 

They’ve been able to dodge the “age” bullet for quite a while, but with an embarrassing three-hit performance in Game 5 of the NLDS, it was never so blatantly obvious that the lineup’s seniority was causing some problems. Can it be fixed? Maybe.

Rollins, who had the best series of any Phillies hitter, clearly must be re-signed. He continues to be what makes this team run, and although he is far removed from his 2007 MVP season, he remains an energetic force at the top of the lineup.

But after that, change is inevitable.

Placido Polanco, as consistent he may be when he’s healthy, seems to be consistently bad when he’s not. Unfortunately for Polly, his injuries seem to be hammering him more and more as he nears 40. 

Utley and Howard, whatever argument you may have, are not going anywhere. 

The spot in left is sure to prove to be a problem, especially at the beginning of next season. Will it be Mayberry? Brown? Or will Mayberry play first when Howard’s gone? It’s way too early to know, but some interesting questions await Ruben and Charlie come spring training.

The pitching is fine. That much is clear. They might not have gotten it done, but with a rotation that dominant, there’s nothing more you can do to improve them. The series did, however, show us the importance of Cole Hamels. His dominant start was one of the high points of the series for the Phillies, and signing the southpaw to an extension should be at the top of the Phillies’ priorities this offseason.

The Phillies should have won the World Series. On paper, they were the best. By far. But maybe, just maybe, losing early opened up the eyes of Amaro and his staff on what really needs to be done. We now know that change is necessary. And as ridiculous as it may seem, losing early may have been the only way to figure that out.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Odds on Every Player on the Roster Returning in 2012

It’s over.

Looking beyond the heightened expectations and blind optimism for the 2011 season. Getting over the fact that yet again an anemic postseason offense took a mini-vacation and spoiled one of the greatest pitching staffs of all time. Realizing that Philadelphia’s golden boy, a pitcher brought in to win in the postseason, blew the biggest lead any starter had. From Chase Utley’s return to Hunter Pence’s debut, from Cliff Lee’s mastery to Roy Halladay’s usual surgical position. The Philadelphia Phillies 2011 season was certainly an enjoyable one, and one to remember, but it’s time to face facts.

It’s over.

As the St. Louis Cardinals danced on the mount at Citizens Bank Park and celebrated throughout the Philadelphia night, the collective thoughts of the Phillies’ organization changed focus. The season long thought of, “Which foe will we meet in the World Series?” quickly evaporated and became, “What needs to change for us to get back there in 2012?”

With 102 games in the win column, there’s no doubt that the 2011 version of the Phillies were a good team—a great team—and whether or not you believe the Phillies drew the short stick in the World Series or failed miserably, there’s not much denying that fact.

In spite of that, there’s also no denying the fact that personnel will change. Scapegoats will be made and players will move on. That’s just part of the game. “Baseball is a business.” With any business, changes will be made, and future success relies on those changes. Big or small, obvious or not, every move matters.

So with that in mind, and however painful it may be to do so, it’s time to take a look back at last season’s 25-man roster (plus a few bonuses!) and determine who will be wearing red pinstripes in 2012. Every player will be judged on a scale of 1-100% chance of returning.

So without further ado, lets take a look at which players we can expect back in 2012 and who is ready to fly the coop.

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