MLB Free Agency: Are the Philadelphia Phillies on the Verge of a Blockbuster?

The free-agent period is still in its early stages, but the Philadelphia Phillies have already made their mark this offseason. They first brought in fan favorite and power lefty Jim Thome, signed their elite closer in Jonathan Papelbon and have just acquired utility player Ty Wigginton from the Rockies. Ruben Amaro has been able to fill some of the needs that the Phillies have, and even though he still has some work to do, the Phillies’ 25-man roster is almost full.

As it stands, the players that are set to be on the 25-man roster are:

Catchers: Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider. 

Infielders: Jim Thome, Ryan Howard (if healthy by opening day), Ty Wigginton, Chase Utley, Wilson Valdez and Placido Polanco.

Outfielders: Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, John Mayberry Jr and Ben Francisco.

Pitchers: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras, Michael Stutes and Jonathan Papelbon.

As of now that would be 22 of their 25 potential big-league players, with remaining positions to fill at shortstop, outfield and relief pitcher. It is likely that the last reliever will come between a few in-house options (David Herndon, Michael Schwimmer, Justin De Fratus or Phillippe Aumont). So in reality there are just two spots remaining on the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies’ opening day roster.

On multiple occasions, Amaro has stated that they will likely spend close to the same amount as what the club spent in 2011, which would leave them about $20 million to spend before hitting the luxury tax threshold.

So the question now is, what will the Phillies do with their remaining funds? For now, nobody knows but Amaro. But let’s face it, he has something in store, just like he always does. It could be as simple as bringing back Jimmy Rollins and signing another quality reserve.

For an optimist like myself, I believe there is more to it than just that. With their remaining funds, they have clearly put themselves in position to get in the Jose Reyes sweepstakes if they so choose, or explore the trade market, which could feature names such as David Wright and Hanley Ramirez. 

There are sure to be more intriguing names to become available via trade in the upcoming weeks, and we’ve seen in the past how the Phillies love to swing deals. I am excited to see the next domino to fall in the Phils offseason plan as I think the next one will be rather large.

Thank you all for reading, and feel free to voice your opinion below. Stay on your toes Phillies fans, because we’re not done.

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Colorado Rockies Trade Utility Player Ty Wigginton to the Philadelphia Phillies

According to the Colorado Rockies‘ official team Twitter account, they have traded utility man Ty Wigginton to the Phillies in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. Wigginton’s acquisition by the Phillies means in all likelihood that the team has given up in their pursuit of free-agent outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who was most recently with the Minnesota Twins. 

Wigginton is a journeyman by MLB standards. In his ten MLB seasons, he has been on seven different teams, including the Mets, Pirates, Rays (as the Devil Rays), Astros, Orioles, Rockies and now the Phillies.

Wigginton is a solid pickup for the Phillies because he can play multiple positions and has a lot of power, which will be accentuated in the bandbox that the Phillies call home, Citizens Bank Park. Last season, Wigginton hit 15 home runs in 401 at-bats, playing most of the Rockies’ games at third base.

A veteran run producer like Wigginton is someone that the Phillies desperately need in their lineup. The team’s offensive struggles towards the end of the season and in the playoffs were much maligned, and Wigginton helps solve that problem. 

In his last full season (2010), Wigginton played 154 games and hit 22 home runs with 76 RBIs for Baltimore. This is the productive, veteran player Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro was looking for when he pulled the trigger on this trade.

The main thing that kept the Phillies from defeating the eventual World Series-champion St. Louis Cardinals in the 2011 NLDS was their hitting. The team’s pitching staff was amazing, but their cornerstones in the lineup—Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino—just didn’t get the job done when it was most important.

This trade shakes things up a bit in Philly, and it looks to supplement that sometimes-stagnant Phillie lineup.

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Philadelphia Philles Are the New New York Yankees: Not a Good Thing

If you have been around baseball for the past two decades, you undoubtedly remember the New York Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s, wherein they captured four World Championships in five years.  You might then remember what happened afterwards.

Every year, the Yankees went far into the playoffs—frequently to the World Series. Every year (save for 2009), they failed to win. Meanwhile, the baseball world outside of New York loathed the Yankees, and the same is happening to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Now, I’m not naive. I realize that baseball is a business founded upon winning championships, not national acclaim. Philadelphia fans are not (and should not be) concerned what people outside of their city/fan base think about them. “Haters gonna hate.”

The concern, however, is that the Philadelphia Phillies could turn into a punchline should they not win championships.

2008:  The Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series, bringing joy to millions of fans who waited a generation to see their team capture a title.

2009:  The Phillies lose the World Series to the New York Yankees. In the offseason, they make a splash by signing Roy Halladay.

2010:  The Phillies lose to the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS, despite acquiring Roy Oswalt from the Houston Astros midseason. In the wake of the loss, Philadelphia signed Cliff Lee.

2011:  The Phillies lose to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS, despite acquiring Hunter Pence from the Houston Astros midseason. In the wake of the loss, the Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon.

Do you see a pattern here? Obviously, the Phillies’ talent level is very high. But for whatever reason, they cannot seem to purchase a championship.

And even the most devout Phillies’ fan has to acknowledge that that’s exactly what Philadelphia is attempting to do.

It isn’t wrong to try to do this, mind you. Philadelphia sells out every game on their schedule. Their fans are some of the most passionate in the game. With this kind of revenue, why not try to assemble the best team possible?

Because the most expensive team is not necessarily the best team.

Think back to 2008. The Philadelphia starting rotation featured:

Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA)

Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71 ERA)

Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55 ERA)

Kyle Kendrick (11-9, 5.49 ERA)

Joe Blanton (4-0, 4.20 ERA)

With closer Brad Lidge (41/41 Saves, 1.95 ERA)

 

Look hard at those numbers. THAT team won a World Series. The team with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Vance Worley did not advance past the divisional round.

The 2008 team scored 799 runs. The 2011 team scored 713 runs. But the 2007 team, which was eliminated in the first round by the Colorado Rockies, scored 899 runs and the 2009 team scored 820.

Clearly, there’s no predetermined measure to go by when it comes to winning a World Championship. Were Philadelphia to build talent from within their organization and not trade said talent away for “big names,” they might have a better chance of accomplishing their goal of winning a World Championship.

This is a lesson that the New York Yankees learned the hard way. After reeling off three consecutive World Championships, the Yankees opted to eschew intraorganizational development in favor of big-ticket free agents. It was not until they revamped their homegrown talent that they managed to repeat.

The “best team” does not win the World Series every year. In fact, as the adage goes, the “hot” team wins, and you can’t buy “heat.” And when you spend a ton of money (second-highest payroll) and lose, the loss reflects poorly on ownership and the general manager.

If the Philadelphia Phillies as an organization are interested in winning over 100 games every season, then their current strategy is brilliant. If, however, the Phillies are interested in building a sustainable team that can compete for championships without breaking the bank and thereby maintaining their organizational integrity, they should consider restructuring and building from within.

Otherwise, it might be another 30 years until the Commissioner’s Trophy returns to Philadelphia. 

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5 Dream Moves That Would Make Stat-Heads Squeal

As the Philadelphia Phillies continue their swan dive into the free agent pool in pursuit of the next big splash, fans are eagerly waiting for the front office to fill the holes that still exist. After reeling in Jonathan Papelbon and setting the market price for relievers, the Philly faithful have their sights set on acquisitions that could make their team unstoppable.

Rumors are swirling about utility player Michael Cuddyer and more permanent solutions like Freddy Galvis or Jose Reyes. The crowds that are set to continue the string of sellouts at Citizens Bank Park are still unsure of whether they will be flocking to see Jimmy Rollins or his replacement.

So, as the baseball world watches as the National League favorites retool before another run at the World Series in 2012, one can only think of the many directions in which the club can move. Sure, it makes sense to target the areas that failed them during their most recent postseason failure.

But what if their trigger-happy General Manager shocked the world with a move that would all but guarantee the team another title?

The league is expecting Ruben Amaro Jr. to make a few more moves that will build upon an already-talented roster. However, after years of massive moves and franchise-changing trades, is it unreasonable to doubt that the Phillies could make another huge deal this winter?

The assembly of the “Four Aces” last season and their statistical potential brings a unique type of excitement that can only surround the opportunity to make history by the numbers. Here are five moves Philadelphia could make that would leave stat junkies shaking their heads at the limitless impact they could have on the record books.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ranking 25 Greatest Offseason Moves in Team History

Philadelphia Phillies‘ fans across the globe can rejoice and be happy during this time of year. Yes, the club missed out on the ultimate goal of winning the World Series in 2011, but if it is any consolation, the days of not winning the World Series and then watching other clubs gobble up all of the winter’s top free agents and making the biggest trades are over.

The Phillies, with general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. at the helm, have become big game hunters. They’re in the business of luring the game’s top players to the City of Brotherly Love and partner, business is booming.

In the last few off-seasons alone, the Phillies have brought two aces to the city (one by waiving his no-trade clause and the other, by negotiating a contract in secrecy,) inked a closer to the most lucrative reliever’s contract of all-time, and convinced a Gold Glove second baseman to move to the hot-corner, and that is just to name a few.

This wasn’t always the case.

For a franchise with more than 10,000 losses, the Phillies have certainly endured their darkest hours. They weren’t always able to pull off the big trade or sign the big name free agent. So as we play witness to their better days in the present, let’s look back to the past to see how far they’ve come, and where today’s deals rank among the greatest off-season moves of all-time.

Finally, just a reminder before we begin. Any move made during the off-season (trade, signings, etc.) is fair game for this list!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ten Moves the Phillies Could Make to Get Younger

Man, the Philadelphia Phillies’ players are getting old.

In fact, the Phillies have the oldest team in the majors, with the average player on the team being 29.9 years old. Last year, nobody in the infield for the team was under the age of 31 and the only everyday starter under the age of 30 was Hunter Pence. The starting rotation also saw three out of its five pitchers over the age of 32.

The team needs to get younger in order to remain a consistent contender. While the deals the Phillies have been creating to acquire All-Star and Cy Young-caliber talent have been great, the Phillies have lost roughly a dozen top prospects in those trades. The Phillies’ farm system is thinning, and if current trends continue, it will continue to thin out more and more, and when it’s time to bring up in-house players to play at the major league level, little-to-no talent will be there.

The Phillies are a win-now team, that’s a given. But in order to remain a contender past 2012, the Phillies will have to look ahead and figure out what will get them younger so they aren’t overpaying washed up veterans to man every position for the next 10 years.

Here’s ten ways how the Phillies can do just that.

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MLB Free Agents 2012: Judging Reactions to the Jonathan Papelbon Signing

Unlike most of Ruben Amaro’s big moves over the last couple of years, the recent acquisition of closer Jonathan Papelbon for $50 million, instead of Ryan Madson, seems closer to split evenly between two sides. In addition there’s also a less populated third side, which was to forgo both relievers and instead use the money to fill other holes and go with a cheaper closer option. 

In this deal, I believe you can legitimize arguments on any of the sides. The problem is, few do that. Instead, they opt for either using factually wrong information, personal emotions or tired cliches that hold no merit or proof. It’s when people use these types of arguments that really irks me.

This article is a collection of such examples, followed by a more in-depth review of my opinion.

Note: All comments from reactions by Phillies Nation readers.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Top 25 Players They Should Be Eyeing This Offseason

Jonathan Papelbon and Jim Thome are both under new contracts with the Philadelphia Phillies, but with Black Friday right around the corner, this club’s shopping list is far from finished.

After an embarrassing exit from the National League Division Series at the hands of the eventual World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, the Phillies’ off-season shopping list went from a few players (after all, the 2011 squad certainly had the talent to win a World Series) to guys that would not only require major commitments, but fill major holes on the roster.

Of those obvious needs are a starting shortstop, a closer, a more productive bench, and perhaps players for a few other areas that could use some depth, for instance, the bullpen.

Signing Papelbon takes care of that need for a closer and Thome goes a long way in upgrading the bench, but the bullpen and the bench could both use some work. The Phillies don’t have a shortstop and the bench is riddled with mediocrity. There are championship caliber pieces in place for the Phillies, but there are also big holes.

That, however, is what the off-season is for. The free agent market is littered with valuable free agents and what you can not find on that market, can certainly be had on the trade market for a price. This slide show will run down some players that the Phillies should be targeting this winter, ranking them in overall value to the club.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Top Prospects by Position

After many years of substandard production, the Phillies farm system has served the team very well during the past decade.  It provided the core to the 2008 World Series squad and has since been tapped time and time again in trades to improve the big club.

Despite those trades, the system remains in a good position and is by no means barren, as some naysayers have suggested.

Recently, draft guru John Sickels and Baseball America each released their prospect rankings for the Philadelphia minor league system.  It is very interesting that after the initial three prospects, they had a very difficult time agreeing on the top ten prospects.

In my opinion, this is very indicative of the current state of the farm.  There is a lot of talent, but most of it is in the low minors and needs more time before we can get a clearer picture of what exactly the Phillies have there.

So rather than doing a traditional top ten prospects ranking, I have decided to change things up a bit.  Instead, here is a list of the top prospect at each position—plus a few other names to watch.  

Players who have spent enough time in the MLB to qualify as a rookie will be excluded from this overview, even if they spent significant time in the minors this season.  This means players like Domonic Brown, Michael Stutes, John Mayberry Jr. and Scott Mathieson are not eligible for inclusion here. 

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MLB Awards: Should Phillies’ Roy Halladay Win Another Cy Young?

The Phillies’ ace of aces Roy Halladay has a chance to win his second NL Cy Young Award in as many years tomorrow. Will he—or technically, will the Baseball Writers Association of America—give Phillies Nation a reason to cheer?

In case you have been spending time in an alternate universe since the end of September, many Phillies fans are still in mourning over their 102-win juggernaut’s rude dispatch by the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.

Yes, there have been glimmers of good news in the offseason. Jim Thome is back in red pinstripes and just seeing this class act back in town feels good. General Manager Ruben Amaro chose to pursue Jonathan Papelbon rather than his own closer, Ryan Madson, and that acquisition figures to be a valuable one.

But those two player additions aside, it’s been tough around here, and if you factor in the Eagles’ hideous 3-6 start along with the NBA lockout, it’s been a cruel stretch for Philly sports fans. And I say that without even mentioning the horrific situation in State College, PA. Oops.

Back to the task at hand: Roy Halladay and the NL Cy Young Award.

Halladay has been nothing short of brilliant in his two years in South Philly, and has a good chance to win back-to-back awards. If he does so, Doc will become only the ninth pitcher in Major League Baseball history to win three or more Cy Young Awards. All of the other eight are, or will be, Hall of Famers. And Doc’s plaque will also hang in Cooperstown one day— whether or not he ever wins another Cy Young Award.

So will he win?  He may, but this column is not written to make a prediction.

Does he deserve to win?  It says here that a decent case can be made for Halladay; it also says here that a much stronger case can be made for Clayton Kershaw, the young ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Saying this takes nothing away from Doc’s brilliance or the splendid work of co-aces Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, who also merit consideration. Lee would rank third on my mythical ballot (just in front of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ian Kennedy) and Hamels would probably hang in at No. 5.

Picking a deserving winner is as much art as science. And while controversial or even heretical to some, I do tend to put more emphasis on “real stats” than some of the newer stats such as  ERA-plus, FIP, X-FIP and Gladys Knight and the Pips. Having taken shots against the IPs, I do like WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched).

And yes, I also remain more of an opponent than an advocate of WAR and don’t possess a ton of patience for things like BABIP and fly ball ratio when it comes to awards. Why? I’m not a scout or a GM and believe that awards should reward actual performance.

Below are (some of) the stats compiled by my top five candidates in 20111.

 

Pitcher	W/L	ERA	IP	H	K/BB	CG/SHO	BAA	WHIP
Kershaw	21-5	2.26	233.1	174	248/54	5/2	.207	0.98
Halladay	19-6	2.35	233.2	208	220/35	8/1	.239	1.04
Lee	17-8	2.40	232.2	197	238/42	6/6	.229	1.03
Kennedy	21-4	2.88	222	186	198/55	1/1	.227	1.09
Hamels	14-9	2.79	216	169	194/44	3/0	.214	0.99

 

With apologies to Hamels, any of the top four would be worthy selections for the NL Cy Young Award this year. In most pundits’ minds, the choice comes down to Halladay and Kershaw.

Reviewing the numbers, it is hard to see why Halladay (who may well still be MLB’s mythical best starter) would get the nod over Kershaw this year.

Durability: Halladay once again topped his league in complete games, and had an eight to five advantage over Kershaw here. On the other hand, Kershaw had two shutouts to Doc’s one, and they pitched the same amount of innings, give or take one out. Call this a draw.

Control:  Doc had a ratio of 220/35 (6.29 k/bb) compared to Kershaw’s 248/54 (4.59 k/bb). If one is just looking at ratio, Doc runs away with it. But, if you look at it another way, Kershaw’s differential of strikeouts to walks was 194; Halladay’s was 185. Whose line would you take? Call this a wash.

WHIP and Batting Average Against: Kershaw rates a big edge over Halladay in BAA (.207 to .239). Doc’s better control mitigates this slightly, but Kershaw still gives up fewer hits and walks per innings pitched (0.98 to 1.04) than Doc.

Win/Loss and ERA: Again, this goes to Kershaw (21-5, 2.26 to Halladay’s 19-6, 2,35). And while neither stat is the be-all and end-all for pitchers, one would be a fool to discount either completely. To me, this is still the starting point for pitchers before examining other stats. (And yes, I supported Felix Hernandez for the AL CYA last year, despite his pedestrian 13-12 record),

Doc’s supporters—and trust me, I am a huge fan of the guy—may point to the fact that the Phillies were 24-8 in games that he started, and the Dodgers were 23-10 when Kershaw toed the rubber. Point well taken, but consider this.

When Halladay did not start, the Phillies still were 78-52 (.600). When Kershaw did not start, the Dodgers were 59-69 (.460).

Taking everything into consideration, as terrific as Doc was, Kershaw was clearly a notch above.

If Doc wins the award, it will be a chance for Phillies Nation to celebrate and once again salute a great pitcher who is the ultimate stand-up guy.

The Phillies fan in me will applaud the selection; the baseball fan in me will applaud even louder if Kershaw brings home the hardware.

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my other books, blogs and speaking information…from (the) TipoftheGoldberg.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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