2013 MLB Free Agency: Every Team’s Odds of Signing Cole Hamels

This offseason marked the final year of arbitration for Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels (pictured), who has been an integral member of the team’s rotation since 2006. This past season, despite a modest record of 14-9, the 2008 World Series MVP posted a remarkable 2.79 ERA with an 0.98 WHIP as he continued to establish himself as one of baseball’s elite pitchers.

Sure enough, he and the Phillies avoided arbitration on January 17, when he signed a one-year deal worth $15 million.

While it was a certainty that Hamels would be back in the City of Brotherly Love for the 2012 season, it’s a bit of a shock that the Phillies didn’t look to sign him for longer. The money he’ll earn next season is the highest for any pitcher prior to becoming free agency-eligible.

Given Hamels’ value to the club over the years, one would think that the Phillies would make a greater effort to lock him up long-term.

Instead, Hamels could possibly the the hottest commodity on next year’s free-agency market and given the number of teams that could use a front-line starting pitcher, he could be in line to receive a multi-year contract worth in excess of $100 million.

Any team would be lucky to have him, so the question poses itself: Where will Hamels play in 2013? Let’s have a look at each team’s odds of signing the two-time All-Star next offseason.

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25 Most Polarizing Philadelphia Phillies of All Time

When you’re around for as long as the Philadelphia Phillies‘ organization has been, a lot of players are going to sign contracts to wear your uniform. Like anything in life, some you will love, but others you will absolutely despise.

If the Phillies are known for anything, however, it is a passionate fan base, and that creates a few interesting results in regards to a love / hate relationship. The city of Philadelphia is a blue collar town, and Phillies’ fans love players that work hard, succeed, and leave their all on the field.

As long as you play the game the right way, you’re okay by Phillies’ fans. On the flip side of that coin, however, approach the game in an opposite matter, and, well, you’re going to wind up in the dog house for a long, long time.

For the sake of this list, we’ll call those guys “polarizing players.”

That means that these players inspire one type of response. They are absolutely loved by the fans or the fans absolutely hate their guts.

The players on this list are ranked by their “polarization factor.” More simply, they are ranked by the emotional response they invoke. So, for example, if one player if Player A is “liked” more than Player B, then obviously, Player A will be ranked higher.

However, if Player C is “hated” more passionately than either player is “liked,” then he will be ranked the highest.

Now the only question is: Just who are these players?

For up to the minute Phillies information, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: Valdez Trade Creates Tremendous Opportunity for Galvis

Are you ready, Freddy? You have a big chance to advance your career right now, Mr. Galvis.

The Phillies traded Wilson Valdez to the Cincinnati Reds on Jan. 25 for left hander Jeremy Horst. In doing so, they traded the final member of their major league infield.

The spot leaves a void on Charlie Manuel’s bench that includes only Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome as reserves. Neither of the two veterans have any chance of being put in at shortstop, regardless of it being in a backup capacity. Essentially, Jimmy Rollins, who has taken three trips to the disabled list the past two years and four such trips since 2008, lacks a back up.

The front runner to take the final spot is Michael Martinez, a utility player who spent all of 2011 on the big league roster. Martinez had to be on the roster though, or the Phillies would risk losing him. That risk doesn’t exist anymore.

Presumably, he would be the front runner to take the spot. But let’s never count Michael Martinez as a lock to make any team’s roster. He’s Michael Martinez. He’ll be 30 years old by the season’s end, and could not even crack the Nationals’ roster once, not even as an injury replacement or September call up in some of Washington’s worst years.

 

Making 234 plate appearances last season, Martinez hit .196 last season. He didn’t just struggle with pinch hitting; the switch-hitter hit .203 in games in which he started. In his best month, he peaked at a .247 clip in July.

In other words, he can be beat.

 

Who can beat him? There is only real in-house candidate that could compete with him being capable of playing shortstop: Freddy Galvis. The 22-year-old with a slick glove certainly has the defensive capabilities to replace the reliable glove Valdez posses.

Does he have the bat? Well, Galvis actually has improved each season offensively to project some type of major league competence. His respective annual batting averages from 2007-2011 have for the most part climbed upward: .203, .238, .240, .233, and .278. That’s all while climbing from low A ball to AAA, obviously facing increasingly challenging competition.

 

There is reason to think he could perform at least within reach of Martinez’s .196, if not .25 points higher. Again, they would not be losing anything in the field either and from all accounts would actually be making an upgrade over Valdez and Martinez. Additionally, he brings adequate foot speed checking in somewhere between 40 and 45 on the traditional “20-80” scouting scale. Galvis stole 23 bases at two combined levels last season, but was caught 13 times. He could work on his base stealing, but his speed is by no means a “deal breaker.”

It would benefit both he and the team if Galvis could top Martinez for the last spot. Realistically speaking, Martinez does not have much a future with this team. To his credit, he made the team as a 28-year-old rookie last season, but we’ve likely seen his highest potential.

Having established that as the case with Martinez, let’s peak into Galvis’ future.

Galvis is the most apparent “shortstop of the future,” Jimmy Rollins’ heir apparent. At 22 years old, he could put himself in position to learn the game by watching a collection of accomplished, established veterans for 162 games as a front row spectator. It would beat filling out a spot in the Iron Pigs’ lineup each night.

 

There is a track record of that type of success in Philadelphia: a young prospect sitting on the bench, backing up a veteran as part of their way to transition into becoming a big league player. The players who have done this while playing for the Phillies within the past 10 years have outperformed those who did not.

Note: I am not guaranteeing Galvis will be an All-Star, just identifying a trend.

Chase Utley was a dynamic threat of the bench in 2004 and the first part of 2005, in addition to being an injury replacement for David Bell and Placido Polanco in 2003. Ryan Howard eased in 2004-05 as well, also at times being an injury replacement.

Shane Victorino was Pat Burrell’s late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner in the first part of 2006, then played increasingly more games once Bobby Abreu was traded and Aaron Rowand was injured. Carlos Ruiz was a part-time catcher from 2006-08 before easing into the starting catcher role. Michael Bourn was a backup center fielder in 2007 and extra legs off the bench, and although he was traded to Houston, he was able to become an effective All-Star starting center fielder.

Why does it work? One particular reason is the younger players learn from the proven, established veterans. Utley was there with David Bell, a current minor league manager, and Placido Polanco, who is widely regarded as a future manager. Ryan Howard backed up a future first ballot Hall of Famer in Jim Thome. Carlos Ruiz played behind a two-time All-Star catcher. Shane Victorino roamed the outfield with the all-out Aaron Rowand, and Bobby Abreu, who had one of the best approaches at the plate in the National League.

Conversely, people who were thrown right into the starting role did not really reach their potential.

Pat Burrell was widely considered a player who performed below expectations. Granted, he had a productive career in Philadelphia, but not nearly as successful as he was expected or projected to be. He became a full-time player less than two years after being drafted.

 

Domonic Brown has struggled as a full-time player. Marlon Byrd had a solid first year, but then struggled for the remainder of his tenure in Philadelphia. He fell off the map until he became a backup and then became an All-Star.

In general, those who eased into the role, going from reserve to starterd fared well.

Look around the horn and at their contracts. Placido Polanco could be a free agent in less than eight months. Chase Utley’s deal expires following the 2013 season. Jimmy Rollins could be gone after the following season. It would be nice to have at least an idea of how Galvis looks against major league pitching. His 150-200 at bats as a utility player would be more telling than 500 or so in AAA ball.

If it looks promising, Freddy Galvis and his pre-arbitration year’s salary would look pretty good to calm down the flaming projected payroll, which guarantees $104 million to just six players. Of the six, three of them are in the infield. A salary of less than half a million could allow them to explore external, more costly options in other positions or keep impending free agents. Wouldn’t you like to see Cole Hamels back? It’s usually best to install an internal option anyway, that is how the 2008 championship team was built.

So the Phillies have plenty of reason to allow Galvis to pursue this opportunity. Galvis just has to make the most of it to make that half a million or so salary truly be a bargain.

If he can show up in Spring Training and prove he is adequate at the plate, he has a real opportunity in front of him to advance his career significantly. It does not even need to be adequate, just better than Michael Martinez.

Galvis could then spend the next season learning under the wing of team leader Jimmy Rollins, future manager Placido Polanco, and the ultimate gamer Chase Utley.

He has a solid opportunity here of which to take advantage. Are you ready, Freddy?

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Dark Horses to Make Their Opening Day Roster

The Phillies appear to be set with making big moves for the 2012 season.

However, that does not mean that the projected roster could change.

Injuries are a big question mark with this team and Ruben Amaro has left some room for spring training competition in the bullpen. With both of these being the case, roster spots could be won with solid performances down in Clearwater.

The following presentation will list the 10 biggest dark horses to break camp on the team with the Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies: How Charlie Manuel Can Get His Team to Produce Runs

It’s no secret that pitching was the Phillies‘ strong suit in 2011.With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels on the mound, it seemed almost impossible for the team to lose, and in the regular season, it was. The team—led by their aces on the hill—cruised to a 102-60 record in 2011, but struggled in the playoffs because of their lack of hitting.

If the Phillies want to have a shot at the World Series in 2012, their hitting needs to improve.

Manager Charlie Manuel, who has been with the team since 2005, needs to rally his troops to strengthen the offense. Philadelphia’s .253 team batting average and .395 slugging percentage both ranked in the lower half among MLB teams last year—an unreal fact considering the Phillies led the MLB with 102 wins.

Here are some steps that Charlie Manuel must take in 2012 to improve the team at the plate.

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Jimmy Rollins: Things We’d Love the Phillies Shortstop to Do Before He Retires

Say it is so folks, the one and only Jimmy Rollins is staying in the red pin strips for at least three more years.

J-Roll recently agreed to terms to stay a Philadelphia Phillie for a three-year, $33 million deal. The former National League MVP says he has plenty left in the tank.

There’s no doubt Rollins has not only been the face of this franchise for the past decade but he has also built quite the resume.

With a vesting option for a fourth year, Rollins already has a proven track record during his tenure with the Phillies.

However, here are a couple more notches on the Rollins belt Phils fans would love to see the flashy shortstop accomplish before he hangs up the cleats for good.  

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Top 25 Philadelphia Phillies Fan Videos

This part of the off-season can be a bit of a tease for baseball fans across the country. After all, you will spend a countless number of days counting down until Opening Day or listening to ball scribes tell you that Spring Training is “right around the corner.”

Well, you can keep telling yourself that, but pitchers and catchers won’t be heading to Florida or Arizona any faster if you do. Sure, that date may be just a couple of weeks away, but at the end of January, with snow and ice on the ground and nothing better to do, it still feels like Spring Training is light years away.

How about a better way to occupy your time?

The Internet is a marvelous thing, but I’ll spare you the lengthy, colorful explanation as to why and get right down to the most simple fact: It’s entertaining.

So as I sat in my chair, hot cop of coffee in hand and watching the snow fall to the ground, I longed for Spring Training. I took to the Internet to try and remind myself that Clearwater, Florida was “right around the corner” for the Phillies, but instead, stumbled upon something much more entertaining than crossing days off of the calendar: Fan videos.

Now that the Phillies are once again a team that contends year in and year out, the fan base is the life force behind this franchise, and boy, are you guys entertaining. In this slideshow, I’ve assembled a host of videos either about, filmed by, or including the fans.

You’ll laugh, you’ll cry… Okay, you probably won’t cry unless you’re overly emotional, but I promise that you’ll find some of these excellent fan videos, some humorous, some inspiring, certainly entertaining.

For up to the minute Phillies’ information, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: Top 25 Positional Prospects in the System

The Philadelphia Phillies know the importance of developing a strong core of positional players as prospects.

After years of losing and en route to setting a new mark for losses by a franchise in sports history, the Phillies began to develop a strong farm system, and a couple of years later, watched the cream of that crop hoist a World Series trophy over their heads.

There are simply no two ways about it. Drafting and developing great positional prospects won the Phillies the World Series title in 2008. That team was a potent offensive group led by the exploits of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Pat Burrell, to name a few. 

With Burrell being long gone and the rest of that core of players aging, it is never too soon to look to the farm system and take a look at which prospects may make up that next core. Though the Phillies’ system is thin at some positions and has plenty of question marks, this organization is oozing potential.

The Phillies love to draft and sign players with excellent raw tools and a ton of upside, and those types of players are numerous in this farm system. The real question is: Which players have the best chance on donning red pinstripes in the MLB? Who are the best of the best?

For up to the minute Phillies’ information, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Vance Worley Was Not Just a One-Year Wonder

No matter how much success a player has during their rookie season, the term “sophomore slump” and whether a player will experience it or avoid it, may still be used when forecasting their second season in the major leagues.

Vance Worley of the Philadelphia Phillies is no exception following a rookie season that led to a third-place finish in National League Rookie of the Year voting.

Worley finished last season with an 11-3 record, 3.01 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 21 starts. Worley is also set to begin this season in the Phils’ starting rotation, after beginning last season pitching at Triple-A. But after giving up 15 earned runs during the final month of the regular season, one must question whether Worley’s 2012 season will more resemble his 4.05 ERA from last September or his 9-1 record and 2.65 ERA through last August.

However, as a starter in one of the major league’s best starting rotations, Worley may not have to exactly match his numbers from last season in order to have success.

As the Phils’ fourth or fifth starter, Worley may be pitching behind three starters in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, who combined to go 50-23 with 652 strikeouts and a 2.51 ERA last season. While a full season that results in double-digit wins, 150 strikeouts and an ERA around 3.00 may help Worley try to match last season’s success, a slight increase in ERA could still make him a dominant starter at the back end of the rotation.

Worley held opponents to a .237 batting average last season, including a .201 average against left-handed batters. Worley also won nine consecutive starts during the regular season; in five of those starts he gave up one earned run or less.

Even if Worley’s ERA increases to 3.50 this season, the Phils may still have four starting pitchers combine for an ERA under 3.00.

Worley finished last season with an FIP between 3.25 and 3.35 and a BABIP between .280 and .290. Worley also finished with a K/9 rate of 8.13 and a BB/9 rate of 3.14.  His FIP, K/9 and BB/9 rates had improved each month from June to August.

While Worley spent last season in the Phils rotation pitching in place of an injured Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton, he now joins Blanton in filling out the team’s starting rotation. Prior to last season, Worley had made two career major-league starts, compared to over 60 minor league starts. 

In the minor leagues, Worley has never had a season in which he made over 20 starts and had an ERA under 3.35. He had, however, reached at least 100 strikeouts in each of the two seasons prior to last year, when he made nine starts at Triple-A. 

At one point last season, Worley was eighth in the major leagues in called third strikes, thanks in part to a two-seam fastball and sinker that hitters had trouble figuring out. If Worley can continue to develop his pitching repertoire, he may be able to find success once again this season.

Worley went from pitching in the minor leagues to finishing third in National League Rookie of the Year voting inside of one season. If he spends an entire season in the Phils’ starting rotation, he may be able to prove that last season was no fluke.

As a fourth or fifth starter, Worley may be able to continue the success that the Phils’ first three starters have had, while giving the team one of the best starting rotations in the major leagues.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Learn from Yankees/Pettitte Divorce to Sign Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels recently signed his one-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for the 2012 season. It is the last year he is under club control.

There is every indication that they will try and push back the year that will represent his last season under the club’s control.

Ruben Amaro acknowledged that the Phillies would like to bring him back, but the agent for Hamels, John Boggs, threw the gauntlet down when he implied the Phillies would have to significantly exceed Jared Weaver’s $85 million contract.

This may be an indication that Amaro’s group thought that was Hamels’ value and that the two sides are off in negotiations. Regardless, it would be wise for Amaro to not let his youngest ace get away from Philadelphia.

The reason is not because of his regular season success, that part is easy. Nineteen players have won more regular season decisions than Hamels’ 74 since his arrival in 2006. Six left-handers have exceed him in that category in that span as well.

Not one person has surpassed his seven career postseason wins in that span, however, and that is his biggest value. That is what separates him from Jared Weaver, not the fact the Philadelphia is not where he grew up before reaching the majors.

History has been said to repeat itself and we can look to history, with regards to the postseason, to fully understand Hamels’ value and importance to a team looking to compete for multiple championships in the coming years.

Following the 2003 season, the New York Yankees let their postseason ace Andy Pettitte walk in free agency. Pettitte fled the Yankees to go to Houston, a city close to where he grew up as a child. The Astros immediately became a contender.

The Yankees did not drop off much, except for being able to close out series’, something Pettitte greatly aided them in doing. In 2004, the Yankees undoubtedly could have used him against the Boston Red Sox in their epic collapse. The following year, in 2005, they could have used him in their sudden death game against the Angels (or earlier in the series). In 2006, they certainly could have used him over their Jaret Wright/Cory Lidle combination.

Did they perhaps take it for granted that they are the Yankees, that is where Pettitte came through the system, and that they could easily sign him after the season? Maybe, it would make sense. We’ve seen them take this approach with several other players, including Rivera, Jeter and Pettitte in future seasons. Whatever the flaw was, it hurt them big time.

The first lesson? Do not underestimate the power of a player getting a chance to return to his hometown or the area he was from to pitch.

Do not think Cole Hamels is above waving goodbye to the Phillies to return to where he is from, on the west coast. “Hollywood” Hamels, as he is called, would be a logical fit to join Clayton Kershaw and maybe another arm in Los Angeles when the Dodgers have more money following this season. Sound familiar to Pettitte teaming up with Roger Clemens and incumbent Astros star pitcher Roy Oswalt?

The second lesson is that postseason games are won by dominant pitchers.

Clearly, the Yankees could have used Pettitte’s value in the years he was not there. Javier Vazquez, Kevin Brown, Jaret Wright, John Lieber and Esteban Loazia, although successful regular season pitchers, for whatever reasons struggled in the postseason. It was not wise to assume their regular season success would translate in the postseason.

It is fresh in most people’s minds that the Phillies went down in Game 5 of the National League Division Series in a game Roy Halladay allowed one run. No, Hamels did not pitch in that game, but remember, the Phillies would not even have been in that game if it were not for the series of 0’s Hamels posted on Game 3’s scoreboard.

So for Philadelphia, do let mistake number one allow you to  commit mistake number two. Do not even put Hamels in position to walk away. Lock him up before he can even grab a map to see the proximity of Los Angeles to his hometown of San Diego.

And most importantly, DO NOT overlook the fact that you still need to win in the postseason. Regular season wins are replaceable, but it does not equate to postseason success.

Just ask the Yankees of the mid-2000s.

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