Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Will Miss Each Departed Free Agent

Going into the off season the Phillies had a list of some pretty significant players being without contract.

Ruben Amaro Jr. and his team looked at the value of each player, tried assigning dollar values to that, and worked to sign the ones he could and wanted to bring back to Philadelphia.

In doing so, along with making some other moves, he may have prevented himself from signing some of his own free agents.

At the end of the off season, with Spring Training a few days away, it turns out the Phillies lost as many of their own free agents as they signed.

For the two that left for other cities, here is what the Phillies will miss:

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Philadelphia Phillies: 25 Players Who Most Embody the City of Philly

When players come to play for the Philadelphia Phillies, they know that the fans expect a few things out of them. Phillies fans are notorious for a number of reasons, and one of the most well-known qualities is their love of hard-nosed, blue collar athletes.

I’m sure you’ve heard it said about the relationship between Phillies fans and players before: Play the game hard and play it the right way and the fans will support you.

I don’t often get the chance to connect the Phillies and the WWE here, so hang with me for a moment.

Long before I sat down at my computer to write this slide show, there was a certain slogan by WWE superstar John Cena that I believed perfectly described what Phillies fans expected out of their players: Hustle, loyalty, respect.

So when I think of players that “embody” the spirit of the Phillies, of the city of Philadelphia, those are the types of players that I come up with.

They hustle. A player that embodies the Phillies plays like each game could be his last; like his pants are on fire.

They’re loyal. When these players put on the Phillies’ uniform, they have one goal in mind: Winning the game. I think of players who played all or most of their careers with the Phillies.

They show respect. These players know that they won’t be able to play this game forever, but respect it enough to play like they have something to prove each and every night. They respect the fans as much as the fans respect their play.

It isn’t difficult to embody the spirit of the Phillies, but only certain players have managed to do it the right way.

For up to the minute Phillies information, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Day Decisions: Has Cole Hamels Emerged as a Top 10 SP?

If you said that the Philadelphia Phillies had two of the top five starting pitchers in the league, no one would bat an eye.  However, if you said that they had three of the top 10, someone may pause momentarily.  We all know that Cole Hamels has developed into one of the better starting pitchers in the game, but has he developed into one of the elite?

To answer that question we first have to look at the numbers he posted in 2011:

14 Wins
216.0 Innings
2.79 ERA
0.99 WHIP
194 Strikeouts (8.08 K/9)
44 Walks (1.83 BB/9)
.255 BABIP

From those numbers, the answer would clearly be a resounding yes, but can we realistically expect him to replicate them? 

Let’s start with what we do know.  Hamels is an elite control pitcher.  While his 1.83 BB/9 was a career best, the prior four seasons he had posted marks of 2.11, 2.10, 2.00 and 2.63.  In other words, his worst BB/9 in a year where he has thrown at least 180 innings is 2.63 (and he’s been at least .50 better than that every other season).  How many pitchers in the game can say that?

You couple that with a solid strikeout rate (he has posted a K/9 of 9.10 in 2010 and has a career 8.45 mark) and you have the makings of a top 20-25 pitcher.  All you need to do is add in a great ground-ball rate and you have a potentially elite option.  In fact, that’s exactly what he did in 2011.

Last season he posted a 52.3 percent ground-ball rate, by far his best mark (second best was 45.4 percent in 2010, the only other season he was above 42).  Before we dub that number a fluke, let’s look at his monthly rates:

• April – 45.6%
• May – 57.4%
• June – 57.8%
• July – 44.7%
• August – 56.2%
• September – 50.9%

In other words, there was no falloff.  He was repeatedly around or better than his previous career best mark.  Maybe it has been the emergence of his cutter, which he threw 20.7 percent of the time in ’11, but it clearly has gone a long way in helping him take the next step.

He now brings the trio of statistics that we look for in any starting pitcher.  He has strikeouts, control and ground-ball ability.  Does that mean his is a lock to be elite?  No, but he has definitely put him in the position to be there.

Obviously, we can’t expect him to exactly replicate his 2011 success.  We can’t expect him to match either his BABIP (.255) or strand rate (78.4 percent).  A regression in the luck metrics will send both his ERA and WHIP to fall, at least slightly.  With the other numbers that he’s shown capable of, however, that regression is going to do little to hurt his potential value.

Instead of a 2.80 ERA, maybe he posts a 3.00 or 3.20.  Would anyone complain about that?

No one posts a WHIP consistently under 1.00, so saying he’s going to regress there is far from earth-shattering.  However, with his control and newfound ground-ball ability is it a stretch to go in expecting 1.10-1.15, at worst (it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him in the 1.05 range)?  Again, that puts him among the best in the league.

Throw in the potential for plenty of wins, despite not showing it as of yet (career high is 15 wins), and it is clear that Hamels has emerged as one of the better options in the league. 

Heading into the season, I have Hamels ranked as the ninth-best pitcher, but the potential is actually there for him to be so much more than that.  He has emerged as one of the elite and should be viewed as such in all formats.

What are your thoughts of Hamels?  How good do you think he has become?  Where do you rank him for the upcoming season?

Make sure to check out all of our 2012 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Jorge Soler Would Save the Philadelphia Phillies’ Future

The bidding for 19-year-old Cuban hitting sensation Jorge Soler is about to heat up. 

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, the two teams with the most interest in the outfielder are the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies. 

Considering how highly Soler is thought of in baseball circles, the fact that an intense bidding war will break out for his services is, to use Passan’s phrase, no surprise. 

We just saw the Oakland A’s give another Cuban star, Yoenis Cespedes, $36 million over four years. Soler should eclipse that figure because of the fact that he is seven years younger.

The Yankees are in on him because they are in on every highly-touted player. The Phillies are in on him because they desperately need a player like him to build their future around. 

If you aren’t familiar with Soler’s skills, he has tremendous bat speed that gives him the potential for huge power and a great throwing arm that will easily play in right field. He is very raw and will need a few years in the minors, but he can be a star. 

While the Phillies have enjoyed their most successful five-year stretch in franchise history, winning one World Series and five division titles, they have done it by trading away almost all of their impact prospects. 

That is not a bad thing, especially since they are winning, but it does make their long-term future bleak. Most of their best players—Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino—are over the age of 30. 

Cole Hamels is just 28 years old, but there are serious doubts about whether they will be able to re-sign him when he becomes a free agent after the season. He is not going to give them a hometown discount. 

Domonic Brown, at just 24, has the most potential of any young player on the Phillies, but they have mismanaged him to the point where a change of scenery would be in his best interest. 

Soler is the best chance that the Phillies have to get a young, impact player into the system right away. He can be the piece that secures their long-term future. 

It is going to cost a lot of money to get it done, but if they have $50 million to throw at Jonathan Papelbon, they should be able to find a way to make this work. 

Follow @adamwells1985

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Roy Oswalt: Why Phillies Bringing Him Back Would Be Great Idea

When the Philadelphia Phillies declined to exercise starting pitcher Roy Oswalt’s $16 million mutual option on October 24, there was little surprise among fans. Paying $16 million for a player who posted a losing record amidst an injury-riddled season would have been absurd, and the Phillies opted to pay Oswalt his $2 million buyout.

Even when the Phillies declined to offer arbitration to Oswalt on November 23, it was nothing shocking. Despite Oswalt being the only Type A free agent not offered arbitration this offseason, had he accepted, he could have made more money than the Phillies felt he is worth at this stage of his career.

What the real surprise is, though, is that Oswalt is still unsigned with two days left before the mandatory reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Being a model of relative consistency over the last few seasons, Oswalt was considered one of the top free-agent starting pitchers this offseason, and one of the top free agents overall.

In spite of this, Oswalt and his agent, Bob Garber, have not found a suitor for the Mississippi native. While he’s had some opportunities to sign, he hasn’t been content with the teams offering the contracts, such as the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Just a few weeks back, it was rumored that Oswalt and the St. Louis Cardinals were closing in on a contract. However, the rumors proved to be false, for the Cardinals have no payroll or rotation space to sign Oswalt.

It’s also for the same reason that the Texas Rangers—Oswalt’s other top choice—have not signed the veteran right-hander.

Although both Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. and ESPN.com reporter Jayson Stark have stated that Oswalt to the Phillies is “[not a] fit for us right now” and is “not gonna happen,” respectively, things can change.

Of all the teams interested in Oswalt’s services combined with his interest level in pitching for the respective teams, the Phillies likely lead the pack, but the team would have to trade Joe Blanton in order to allow for both a rotation spot and payroll room to accommodate Oswalt, though they have considered that possibility.

Should Oswalt’s demands subside and his asking price comes in somewhere below $8 million, if not below $5 million, he could be a possibility to re-sign. There are many positives to bringing back the man, and if the Phillies do decide to go that route, it could benefit them for a number of reasons, reasons which we’ll investigate today.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 20 Keys to Establishing a Long-Term Dynasty

After five consecutive National League East division titles, three trips to the National League Championship Series, two National League pennants, and a World Series title, at the very least, it is hard not to consider the fact that the Philadelphia Phillies are on the precipice of a “dynasty.”

For baseball in Philadelphia, those are uncharted waters.

Throughout the history of sports, this city has sat back and watched teams like the New York Yankees and Chicago Bulls build dynasties around them. So, after losing more than 10,000 games in its history, is it fair to say that the Phillies are becoming the greatest franchise the city of Philadelphia has ever seen?

At the very least, it is fair to say that the Phillies are well on their way. The real question is whether or not they can build a long-term dynasty—something that few franchises in the history of sports have been able to accomplish.

This slide show will cover various topics, but at the end of the day, it aims to answer one question: Are the Phillies an organization that has the ability to become and remain a dynasty in the MLB?

For up to the minute Phillies’ information, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: Grading GM Ruben Amaro’s Offseason Moves

Phillies fans have recently been accustomed to big offseason moves.

After completing a blockbuster trade for Roy Halladay, and then swooping in and stealing Cliff Lee as a free agent the year after, Ruben Amaro has made it his mission to bring the top names to Philadelphia.

Because this has been Amaro’s claim to fame ever since he took over as GM after the 2008 season, Phillies fans and media have almost expected Amaro to bring a star to the city every single season. It even seems that anything short of that is considered an offseason failure.

In 2012, Amaro did make a blockbuster move but it was in the form of a closer and with guys like Jose Reyes and Prince Fielder leading a very talented and versatile free agent class, Amaro’s signing of Jonathan Papelbon wasn’t exactly the amazing move some may have expected.

With guys like Halladay, Lee, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley occupying a good portion of the team’s current salary, bringing in more superstars wasn’t likely. Despite this however, Amaro did make some minor moves to bolster the Phillies bullpen and bench depth.

As spring training nears, it is time to evaluate some of these moves and hand out Amaro’s 2012 offseason report card.

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Will Vance Worley Suffer ‘Sophomore Slump’ on Philadelphia Phillies in 2012?

The “sophomore slump” is the jinx or regression about which every achieving rookie has been warned. Regardless of being a hitter or pitcher, there are some merits to commodifying the expected trend. The hitters’ rationale for the expected second-year struggles is obvious; pitchers figure out a book on them.

We’ve seen this happen most recently with Jason Heyward or Gordon Beckham. For Heyward, the two-year veteran’s average slipped nearly 50 points from year one to last season.

For pitchers though, it’s a little more complex because there are some extra components to it. Like opposing pitchers to rookie hitters, opposing hitters can figure out a book on a pitcher and his tendencies; their pitches may not be as surprising.

But unlike hitters, who may be more successful in making the transition to an extended version of the seasons to which they are accustomed, a pitcher in his early 20’s body and arm in particular, may struggle rebounding from a full major league season.

There are examples of pitchers struggling from both components. All-Star pitcher Rick Sutcliffe saw his ERA rise more than two full points from 1979-80 after winning Rookie of the Year. Sutcliffe pitched nearly 250 innings in his rookie year, and that could have contributed to his struggles.

Kerry Wood is an example of a guy who was injured after a rookie season and required Tommy John surgery, which prevented him from even pitching in his true “sophomore season.”

And then there’s Brian Matusz, who is an example of both. Not only was he injured to start the season after making 32 starts as a rookie, but he had an insanely poor season. His ERA nearly tripled and ballooned to 10.69, allowing more than two base runners per inning.

Although it was not necessarily in his sophomore season, many people around the game wonder if Cole Hamels struggled with the extra workload in 2008. He threw nearly 75 more innings that year than any year he had ever thrown before as a professional.

In 2009, he started the season with an arm injury, was slightly off schedule because of that, really never was able to get on a real string of putting games together where he was pitching like his normal self and finished with an ERA about one point higher than usual.

So with that in mind, people around the Phillies and their fans could be wondering what is in store for Vance Worley’s 2012 season.

“The Vanimal” was one of the biggest stories of the Phills’ big 2011 season. Finishing third in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, Worley won 11 games and posted an ERA just above three in the major’s  best rotation.

At no point did he look overmatched. He did, however, initially struggle adjusting to the schedule of a major leaguer. It probably was no aid to him that the Phillies sent him back and forth between Philadelphia and Allentown in the first two months, and Worley admitted to struggles as a result of that.

To figure out what a realistic expectation for Vance Worley is for the 2012 season, we should first figure out the reality behind the “sophomore slump” for a pitcher. Does it really exist anymore?

Aside from a few examples, it, in general, does not exist anymore. This can be concluded by looking at the most recent cases; pitchers that exceeded 100 innings in their rookies years between 2008-10. Following up those seasons in 2009-11, there really is no collective regression.

Twenty-four pitchers exceeded the 100-inning mark, but we can only look at 23 of them because Sean Gallagher did not really have a second, follow-up season. But of the 23 most recent cases, they on average saw their ERA drop more than one-third of a point lower in their second year. This coincided with a slight increase in strikeout rate, as well as a considerable dip in the rate of walks they allowed.

The 2010 rookie class is the only one that did not see improved rates in each of the three categories. Take out Brian Matusz and his ridiculously awful stats, and it actually reverses the direction the numbers went and they became improvements.

Another item to note of the recent rookie pitchers is that seven of the 23 were injured their sophomore season, about a 30 percent rate. Nearly all seven of them, however, were pitchers that saw a considerable increase in innings pitched.

Can we translate these numbers into figuring out Worley’s 2012 season? Probably, especially because we can project his strikeout and walk rates.

A key to Worley’s season was the strikeouts he would accumulate, especially swinging. Because so many of them were swinging, an indication the hitter saw something good enough to swing at with their bat, it is more promising that he can repeat that success than it would be if all of his strikeouts were looking.

Considering that in general, rookie pitchers do not see any decrease in their strikeout rate, Worley’s 2012 season begins to take shape in a positive way.

Having said that, Worley’s rates all were much better than the average rookie stats were. His ERA was more than one point lower, strikeout rate was about a point-and-a-half higher and his walk rate was significantly lower.

Does this make him an outlier to the trend? Maybe, so we should look at someone who had a comparable season to him.

Tommy Hanson is the best candidate for that. Hanson’s numbers all were within 12 decimal points of Worley’s ERA, K/9 and BB/9. They both won 11 games, with Hanson losing one more game. Their inning totals also are very similar, with Worley throwing four more in that category.

Looking at Hanson’s 2010 season, his second in the big leagues, he actually saw a form of regression with his ERA and K/9 going in the wrong way. His walk rate did improve, however. Still, Hanson’s ERA was 3.33 and K/9 were 7.68 which are both still good for each category. He also was able to exceed 200 innings.

Other pitchers with rates similar to Worley’s saw slight increases, but still were not too severe to make them a weak link. Madison Bumgarner’s ERA of 3.00 in 2010 rose to 3.21 this year. Jhoulys Chacin’s K/9 of about nine and Johnny Cueto’s K/9 of 8.17, awfully close to Worley’s, both dipped below seven.  Derek Holland’s BB/9 of about three rose approaching four.

David Price and Clayton Kershaw’s strikeout rate went against the trend and rose significantly, but they are two tremendous, left-handed talents. Those are two traits Worley does not possess.

The numbers and the trend tell us, if anything, that Worley may not have quite the success as last season, but by no means will he be awful.

If anything, he still would be in line to be an above-average starting pitcher. What he does have working for him though, is that he did not have a huge jump in innings pitched last season and made nearly the same amount of starts in 2011 as 2010.

Kyle Kendrick is a parallel people have often tried to create beside Worley as far as projecting his sophomore season, but Kendrick’s 2007 is not really similar to Worley’s 2011.

Kendrick had a huge jump in innings, touching over 200 his rookie season and making 32 total starts. The extra strain may have impacted his right arm, as his fastball velocity dropped the following season and his sinker did not drop vertically nearly as much as the year prior. So that parallel does not even exist.

Mark Fidrych, another guy with an animal-related nickname like Worley, is often the guy people go back to when warning of the sophomore slump. But Fidrych, who suffered injuries for the next few years, threw an astonishing 24 complete games as a rookie. On top of that, he injured himself fooling around in the outfield during spring training, which may have lead to further arm damage.

Like Kendrick’s year, the Fidrych parallel is off as well, and in this case, well off from Worley.  

It is just like how the “sophomore slump,” statistically speaking, does not appear to exist in this era of young pitchers.

So will Vance Worley allow the Phillies to win 14 straight starts of his this season and will Worley start out 11-1 again? Probably not, but he will not tail off too much. And should we be surprised if he remains healthy all season? No, because his innings really did not spike up too much.

An injury to him is one of the last injuries anyone should fear among possible injured Phills anyway, just as there is no evidence to fear for Worley struggling too much with any “sophomore slump.”

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Season Will Not Include the Commentary of Bill Conlin

When the Philadelphia Phillies report to Clearwater, Florida on Saturday to begin Spring Training, it will mark the first time that Bill Conlin will not be there to cover the team, either as a beat reporter or a columnist, since 1965. 

For those awaking from a long coma, Conlin resigned from the Philadelphia Daily News in December after learning that the Philadelphia Inquirer was about to publish a story accusing him of molesting four children in the 1970s. Shortly thereafter, the number of accusers rose to seven, dating to the 1960s.

Conlin, through his attorney, said he would clear his name, but there will not be a trial. The statute of limitations passed.

Of course, one can draw his or her own conclusion from Conlin’s resignation and the fact that it seems rather preposterous that several people would conspire to accuse someone of such heinous crimes committed decades earlier.

The State of New Jersey, where the crimes were alleged to have occurred, needs to change the law. There should not be a time limit to prosecute anyone for molesting children. You cannot expect a 7-year-old to have the maturity, wherewithal, and courage to file charges.

Conlin, too, should want the statute of limitations lifted. If he is innocent, he should relish the opportunity to have his day in court to refute his accusers. But while sports have clearly defined winners and losers, here we just have accusations and denials, never to be resolved.

For those who looked to Conlin for the final say on a particular game or player transaction, we will miss not having the wealth of knowledge that he drew on. He was an encyclopedia of anecdotes, from trades that never happened to hotel bar fights that did.

Even if you never stepped foot in Clearwater, you looked forward to Conlin’s Chamber of Commerce-ish rundown of the best places to eat in that part of west central Florida. He made you feel like you were there, out of the winter cold, enjoying the 70º air.

Are we supposed to retroactively dislike his columns and his appearances on ESPN’s The Sports Reporters or Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia’s Daily News Live? Did the 1998 Mark McGwire-Sammy Sosa home run battle not happen because we now know they were on steroids? Did we not all root for Tiger before the fall?

Yes, these are poor comparisons because cheating on your fans and cheating on your wife are not the same as molesting children. The similarity stems from investing time in someone, enjoying a person’s craft, only to be shocked after the fact by what he may have done.

It’s a shame that someone who had such a long, distinguished career, including induction into the writer’s wing of the Baseball Hall of Fame, had his career end this way. It’s a shame that his readers who came to enjoy his distinct columns will no longer get his unique take on the events of the game.

But it’s a crime that there are seven people out there who allegedly had their lives inextricably altered as children who live with this reality every day and cannot do anything about it.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Projecting the Opening Day Bullpen

Believe it or not, sources have confirmed that the Philadelphia Phillies actually do plan on using relief pitchers this season.

Though most of the talk about the Phillies pitching is usually focused on the starters, guys with names other than Roy, Cole, Cliff and Vance will be on the mound at some point in 2012.  And while the starters should have another great season, the bullpen is going to have to pitch some meaningful innings to prevent Roy Halladay’s arm from exploding.  

With that in mind, let’s take a glance at how the Phils’ Opening Day bullpen will probably look.  Though the Phillies might decide to keep an extra bench bat and only carry six relievers, for the sake of this article we’ll assume that they opt to open the season with seven guys in the bullpen.  

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