Philadelphia Phillies: Will Huge Cole Hamels Extension Mean Victorino’s Exit?

The Philadelphia Phillies had seven players reach free agency during the offseason, out of which only one primary starter, Jimmy Rollins, was re-signed by the team.

Following this season, the Phils may have two difficult decisions to make regarding players whose major contributions with the team date back to the 2006 season.

Both Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino are preparing to play the final years of their respective contracts and both have expressed their desire to remain with the Phils past this season. However, the Phillies may be attempting to re-sign Hamels before turning their attention to Victorino’s long-term future with the team.

Hamels went 14-9 with 194 strikeouts and a 2.79 ERA last season—the lowest ERA of his career.  Hamels also finished fifth in National League Cy Young voting. The 28-year-old is 74-54 for his career, with 1,091 strikeouts and a 3.39 ERA, all of which has occurred in a Phillies’ uniform.

Hamels and the Phillies agreed to a one-year, $15 million contract to avoid arbitration, but the free agent-to-be may get a contract closer to $20 million per season after he signs a new long-term deal.

That may be a high price for the Phils, a team that is trying to remain below the league’s $178 million luxury tax threshold. However, Hamels and the Phillies have both expressed their interest in reaching a long-term deal and have had initial negotiation discussions during spring training.

But if re-signing Hamels means pushing the team’s payroll to its limit, can the Phils also afford to re-sign Victorino to a long-term deal?

Victorino, who has been with the Phillies since 2005, batted .279 with 17 home runs and 61 RBI last season. The 31-year-old reached a career high in triples with 16 and hit the second-highest home run total of his career last season. Victorino is also set to become one of the top free agent center fielders.

If Hamels re-signs, the Phillies still may have options for re-signing Victorino, as well.

Placido Polanco, who is set to make over $6 million this season, and Joe Blanton, who will make $8.5 million, can become free agents following this season. By not attempting to re-sign both players and signing Hamels to a long-term, back-loaded contract, the Phils may be able to stay below the luxury tax threshold after the signing. 

The team may then risk exceeding the tax threshold in order to re-sign Victorino, while trying to stay below the $189 million mark for the 2014 season. Following the 2013 season, the league’s luxury tax threshold increases from $178 million to $189 million.

If the Phillies exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2013, but stay below it in 2014, the team would then revert back to first-time offender status the next time it exceeds the threshold.

After finishing last season with a payroll just under the $178 million threshold, it could be difficult for the Phils to re-sign both Hamels and Victorino without exceeding the limit next year. However, if the team stays under $189 million for its payroll, it may only have to pay the tax for one season.

The Phillies may also decide that with a $5 million option in Carlos Ruiz’s contract, as well as potential replacements needed at third base and in the starting rotation following this season, the team’s money may need to be spent in other areas.

Players such as Hunter Pence and Chase Utley are also set to become free agents within the next few offseasons.

If Hamels signs a contract worth over $100 million, the Phillies would have three players with contracts worth that amount. The Phils may then have to decide between another contract potentially worth $50 million for Victorino, or even more for Pence. Offering both contract amounts may be too much for the team while attempting to leave room for possible mid-season acquisitions.

The Phils could also find themselves in a solid position if John Mayberry, Jr. proves he is capable of being a full-time starter in the major leagues and if Domonic Brown finds success at either the major league or Triple-A level. If both players have strong seasons, the Phillies may have options in the outfield if they decide not to re-sign Victorino.

The Phillies may have their sights set on re-signing Hamels first and then turning their attention to Victorino and other expiring contracts. While signing Hamels may not definitively mean Victorino’s exit from the Phils, it certainly won’t make re-signing him any easier.

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