2012 Philadelphia Phillies: Keep Pierre, Demote Podsednik?

It’s been one of the more fascinating battles to watch down in Clearwater this spring.  Two veterans with similar “games” battling it out for a place on the 2012 roster.

Juan Pierre vs Scott Podsednik

Most fans probably think without looking at the numbers that Juan Pierre is the choice here.  But Podsednik is having the better spring. Pods, who just turned 36, is hitting .362 and just hit a game- winning home run on Tuesday. He’s also stolen five bags without being caught.  Pierre, who is 34, is hitting .289 and in those same five stolen base attempts as Podsednik…has been caught three times.

Pierre was always a Phillies killer. His pesky at-bats while a member of the Florida Marlins from 2003-2005 and then with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2007-2009 were memorable. He’s been extremely durable playing in every single game from 2003-2007 and just missing six games combined the last two season in Chicago playing for the White Sox.

Pierre is showing signs of wearing down though.  Last season, Pierre only stole 27 bases in 44 attempts.  That’s a terrible 61 percent success rate.  Pierre has never been a “Jimmy Rollins” type of having a high success rate when it comes to stolen bases. Seven times he led the league in being caught stealing but he was stealing 45-65 bags during those seasons so it was okay.  Last season wasn’t the case.

The basic knock on Podsednik is that he didn’t play in the Major Leagues last season. He hasn’t been very durable either. Since playing in 154 games in 2004, Podsednik has played in 129(05), 139(06), 62(07), 93(08), 132(09), 134(10), 0(11) big league games.  2010 was a pretty good season when he split time between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers.  In 539 at-bats that season, Pods hit .297 with 35 stolen bases while being caught 15 times. That’s a 70 percent success ratio which is better than Pierre’s but still lacking.

Also, Podsednik has seen the majority of his success in the American League.  In 576 career AL games, Podsednik has a .284 average.  In the NL, Pods has played in 440 games and carries a .272 average. It’s the opposite for Pierre who has a lifetime .301 average in the NL and a .277 average in the AL.

The key here might be contract driven.  Pierre must be on the Major League roster Friday or be granted his release.  Podsednik doesn’t have that option and the Phillies can start him off in AAA as insurance to an injury.

At this point, there is no doubt Podsednik has outperformed Pierre this spring, but the Phillies are an aging group and injuries will happen.  By placing Pierre on the Major League roster May 30th, not only do they get to keep him, they can stash Podsednik in AAA in case of an injury. Everyone knows the Phillies are a veteran team and what happens to aging teams?  They experience injuries.

There is a chance in the not so distant future that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel pencils in a lineup that features both Pierre and Podsednik.  However, for the betterment of the organization, the right call at this time is to keep Pierre and demote Podsednik…even with Podsednik out playing Pierre this spring.

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25 Predictions for Phillies’ Offense If Howard, Utley Miss Significant Time

There is no denying the fact that starting the season without the men who would normally hit third and fourth in your everyday lineup is a huge loss. Anyone who believes otherwise can probably trace their roots back to their gullible ancestors that believed the Earth was flat and the center of the universe.

The Philadelphia Phillies are going to miss Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. There are no two ways about it.

Howard is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon suffered on the final play of the 2011 National League Division Series. His return date is unknown. Ditto for Utley, who is dealing with a chronic condition called chondromalacia in his knee.

It is a major concern for a team that was already fielding a questionable offense coming into camp. Now that both are shelved, the future of this club’s firepower looks bleak.

However, the true mark of a good offensive team is how they perform in the face of adversity, and boy, are the obstacles stacked high against the Phillies. But this team has dealt with adversity in the past and handled it well. What does the 2012 season have in store if Utley and Howard can’t be key contributors?

Here are a few predictions for the state of the Phillies’ offense, sans the right side of their infield.

For news, rumors, analysis and game recaps during spring training, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor!

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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7 Phillies Prospects Who May Be Forced into Action Early Due to Injuries

The Philadelphia Phillies seem to be making headlines more for their injured players this spring than for those who have been on the field.

With Ryan Howard set to begin the season on the disabled list, and the recent news of Chase Utley’s injury, the Phillies’ opening day lineup could be missing two crucial names.

This occurs after a 2011 season in which nearly 15 players spent time on the disabled list or experienced some sort of injury.

While the Phillies were able to acquire players capable of playing first base during the offseason, the team has had to make internal adjustments as more players miss time during spring training.

Freddy Galvis may be on pace to open the season as the Phils’ starting second baseman, but he may not be the only Phillies’ prospect forced into early action this season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 4 Signs Domonic Brown May Never Be Fully Healthy

Domonic Brown has been bitten by the injury bug and has a full-on infection.

He seems to get injured in the most random ways possible.

He wasn’t always this risky though. When he was drafted in the 20th round in 2006 by the Philadelphia Phillies, he chose to play baseball over football for the University of Miami.

He hit his way through the minor leagues and made the major league spring training roster for the Phillies in 2010. He was optioned down to the minor leagues, but was called up in July later that year.

Then, to make room for Hunter Pence, Brown was sent down to the minors a year later.

And this year, he was sent back down to the minor league camp due to his injury issues.

Now, it seems as if Domonic Brown will never be fully healthy, and here are some reasons why.

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Why Chase Utley’s Days of Being an All-Star Are Over

The Philadelphia Phillies are once again the odds-on favorite to represent the National League in the World Series. They are the favorites despite the No. 3 and 4 hitters in their lineup being out until God knows when.

Ryan Howard is still dealing with an “open wound” to his surgically repaired Achilles, and Chase Utley has two ailing knees this season. Todd Zolecki did some great investigative work and wrote that Chase Utley has been spotted in Phoenix this week.

We can speculate a bit ourselves here and assume that he’s seeing a specialist for his knees. It was thought that it could be Dr. Thomas Carter, the same guy who performed micro-fracture surgery on Amar’e Stoudemire.  

We learned yesterday that Chase is not considering surgery as an option at this point (good, I guess?). 

Chase Utley can still be a very productive player for the Phillies (here’s to hoping anyways), but here are reasons why his days as a perennial All-Star are over. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Final Predictions for the Opening Day 25-Man Roster

It’s almost here.

Normally, when you spend an entire winter waiting for something, you’re a bit bummed to see it go, and although I’m sure some fans will lament the passing of yet another spring training, it’s time to look at the bigger picture: It’s almost here.

Opening Day.

It’s just around the corner. If you need any proof, just take a look around. Huge spring rosters are slimming down, starting pitchers are throwing later into ball games and hitters are starting to make the best contact of the spring.

The player are just about ready for Opening Day, but are you?

Who knows how ready the Philadelphia Phillies would be. I’m not sure there is another camp in baseball under the same microscope as the Phillies. While the pitching is top-notch, a thin offensive unit is shrinking by the day.

Ryan Howard? Still recovering from offseason surgery to repair his Achilles tendon.

Chase Utley? His chronic knee condition has forced him to see a specialist. His return is up in the air.

Few rosters have seen as drastic a change as the Phillies, so with Opening Day just a few weeks away, is there a better time than now to predict not only what the Opening Day roster will look like, but how it will perform?

I think not.

For news, rumors, analysis and game recaps during spring training, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor!

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: Chase Utley Will Return, but What Happens Until Then?

Chase Utley is such a competitive player that his injury must be extraordinarily disappointing to him. However, he is anticipating a return this season according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN which must be a welcome message to all Phillies fans. While most people pretty much assumed that, it is still nice to hear from him.

However, what is going to happen up until then? How much different are the Phillies going to look?

There’ll be some major differences in a lineup that has grown accustomed to seeing Utley hitting third and run-producing first baseman Ryan Howard in the cleanup spot. The Ryan Howard spot has already been somewhat filled through the acquisition of Jim Thome, but there is a little more debate around how second base will be handled.

Freddy Galvis is certainly an interesting option. He split his time between AA and AAA last season with a pretty decent level of success. Combined, he hit .278 with eight home runs, 43 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. He is definitely a different player than Chase Utley, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is wrong or a bad fit. They could trade for another second baseman, but it seems as if Galvis has the job.

Of course, what will that mean for the Phillies lineup? Could Hunter Pence hit third in the lineup?

That is definitely possible, but they also could hit Shane Victorino third and Pence fourth. That way, the lineup could be Rollins at his traditional leadoff position with Polanco second followed by Victorino and Pence.

While it doesn’t quite look the same as Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, there is still quite a bit of talent there. The team should still be able to get on base and produce runs. With the pitching staff they have, they really won’t need that many to begin with, but it seems like they should be able to get their share.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Madson’s Injury Doesn’t Validate Papelbon’s Contract

As I’m sure everyone knows by now, Ryan Madson will miss the 2012 season due to a torn ligament in his right elbow.  

Unfortunate as this injury is for the former Phillie, Mad Dog’s injury does not, as some fans have suggested, validate the monster contract Ruben Amaro Jr. hastily handed to Jonathan Papelbon in the offseason.

For those who need a refresher on how the situation played out, Madson and the Phillies were close on a reported deal for $44 million in November before talks fell through and the Phils inked Papelbon for four years and $50 million. After holding out for another huge, multi-year offer that never came, Madson signed with the Reds for one year and $8.5 million in January.

Certainly, it’s fortunate that the Phillies did not end up with another crippling injury entering 2012, and it unfortunate the Reds now have to find another closer—but what the relative losses are, and could have been, to each team only serves to highlight how impatient and foolish Ruben Amaro Jr.’s closer negotiating was this winter.

Yes, Madson’s injury is a tough blow for the Reds’ bullpen, but it’s not terrible for their checkbook.

By showing patience while negotiating for a closer, and letting the market settle before making any rash offers, the Reds managed to wed themselves to Madson (a potentially elite closer) for only one year. The Reds’ patience helped to minimize their losses—Madson probably would have been gone after the season in search of a much bigger deal had he performed well, anyway.

The Phillies, on the other hand, would not have come away so clean.

Had Ruben Amaro Jr. been successful in signing Madson, the Phillies would be on the books for a ton of money over a handful of years for a pitcher with a busted elbow.  

If anything, Madson’s injury makes it even more clear how foolish the Papelbon contract was.

The closer role is one of the most volatile positions in all of sports. Guys burst on to the scene all the time (if you’ve ever played fantasy baseball, you know there’s like 12 hot closer commodities that always seem to pop up during the season), they only pitch 60-70 innings a season and have incredible short career peaks (unless their last name is Rivera).

Madson’s injury is scary because it could happen to anyone, even Johnny Paps—the $50 million man.

Obviously, the Phillies weren’t overly concerned with Madson’s elbow if they were that close to signing him long-term. His injury just serves to highlight how fickle it was to gamble $50 million on Jonathan Papelbon’s right arm.  

Even if Papelbon has two great seasons and then goes down with a serious injury three years from now, the Phillies are still out tens of millions of dollars on an injured closer.  

Just look at the previous largest contract for a reliever.

In 2005, the Blue Jays signed B.J. Ryan to a five year deal worth $47 million. He had a great first year in 2006 before blowing out his elbow and missing almost the entire 2007 season. Though he did manage to come back with a solid year in 2008, he had a 6.53 ERA in 2009 and never pitched in the Major Leagues again.

Were those two good years of Ryan worth $47 million to the Blue Jays?  

Probably not.  

Would two good years of Jonathan Papelbon be worth $50 million? Would three even do it?

While the Reds lost $8.5 million on Ryan Madson, they’ll be alright in the long run. If Jonathan Papelbon suffers a similar, unpredictable injury the Phillies won’t be so lucky.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 15 Most Unforgettable Postseason Games

For the most part, this list consists of unforgettably joyous Phillies postseason games.  A few exceptions had to be thrown in…only because they are just so damn unforgettable. 

Obviously the Phillies have played the majority of their postseason games in the last five seasons, but the magical season of 1980 and some others creep in as well. 

Here we go.

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Phillies Spring Training: Pence and Victorino Are X-Factors

When you look around Citizens Bank Park, or, since it’s still Spring Training, Brighthouse Networks Field, you don’t see the once potent offense the Phillies had in 2008 when they beat the Tampa Bay Rays to capture the World Series title. You just don’t.

Chase Utley has chronic knee injuries which limit him severely, Jimmy Rollins has lost a step in the hole and on the base paths, Ryan Howard’s power seems to be diminishing with age—an Achilles injury doesn’t help—and the once-powerful bat of Pat Burrell is no longer here. Even Placido Polanco is looking as old as ever, and Tigers fans said that happened in 2006.

Everyone always says, “Pitching wins championships.” And, for the last two years, the Phillies have had the pitching. I mean, what’s better than three dominant aces and a blossoming young righty?

However, the 2008 Phillies were nearly the opposite of the team GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has amassed today. In 2008, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Joe Blanton all made names for themselves by getting hot in the World Series, but the team was really carried by a top-notch offense comprised of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley.

Today, however, that “top-notch” offense is nearly gone. It’s been replaced by the best on paper rotation ever assembled.

Key word? On paper. 

Even though Halladay, Lee, and Hamels have been stellar in the regular season, hiccups like Game 1 of the 2010 NLCS and Game 2 of the 2011 NLDS by Halladay and Lee respectively have shown chinks in the armor. But these are minor setbacks.

The more important thing is, unlike common misconception, a loaded lineup wins championships. The Phillies did in 2008, the Yankees did it 2009, and last year’s champion Cardinals had Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and Albert Pujols in the lineup.

If you aren’t able to outscore your opponent, you won’t be able to win any big games. And now to get to the point: if Philadelphia needs anyone to step it up, it isn’t Hamels, Halladay, Lee, or even new closer Jonathan Papelbon. It’s their two best hitters, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino.

These two fellows were fantastic in Phillies uniforms last season, outplaying former MVPs Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.

In fact, by saber-metric parameters, Victorino and Pence easily outplayed those two. Pence posted a 5.3 WAR, while Victorino had 5.1. Howard only had 2.7, with Rollins coming in at 3.7.

And it was obvious in their statistics as well: Pence and Victorino are now the engines of a completely different Phillies lineup. In only 54 games as a Phillie, Pence hit an unbelievable .324 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs. Victorino had 17 home runs, 16 triples, and 27 doubles while posting an impressive .491 slugging percentage.

Due to their production, Pence and Victorino will most likely be in the heart of the lineup, hitting fourth and second respectively. This means that they will need to drive in runners as well as get on base themselves, but until Ryan Howard returns in mid-summer, most of the power in the Phillies lineup will come from them. That’s what I call an X-Factor.

Thankfully, both of them are among only a handful of key Phillies who have been injury-free this offseason.

That’s a good thing considering their offensive production could certainly determine how efficient the offense is, and more important, how far the Phillies go in this year’s postseason.

Read more of my work here. 

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