Chase Utley Injury: Phillies Are Doomed Without Star Second Baseman

Chase Utley‘s career is going to be more about what could have been instead of what was, and the Philadelphia Phillies are going to suffer as a result. 

In what has become a common theme with Utley, it was announced by Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. on Monday that the All-Star second baseman is doubtful for Opening Day due to chronic knee problems that sent him to a specialist.

“I worry about Chase because it’s a chronic knee problem. About his career? I don’t know…The guy’s got bad knees. We know it. That’s a fact. We’re just trying to limit and make sure he’s ready to go and feeling comfortable for the bulk of the season.”

The Phillies had enough problems to worry about on offense this season, adding Utley to the list only makes things worse. 

When healthy, Utley is a game-changer. He was one of the best all-around second basemen in baseball, showing the ability to hit for average and power while playing Gold Glove defense. There was a time when he was one of the 10 best players in the game. 

Even though he has fallen off that perch due to the injury problems, Utley is still the most important player in the Phillies’ lineup. He brings the power and patience to the lineup that no one else can match; not Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, et al. 

Yes, the Phillies are going to be carried by their pitching staff. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels can hide a lot of other problems that a team has, but they are only going to get you so far. 

Last season, the Phillies lost to St. Louis in the National League Division Series because they couldn’t score runs. 

Utley’s presence in the lineup and on the field changes what the Phillies are able to do. Losing him for a significant amount of time is going to destroy any hopes they have to get back to the World Series, let alone win it. 

The Phillies need Utley to figure out a way to remain healthy for 110-120 regular-season games and be in top condition when the playoffs roll around. He is their most valuable player when healthy, but right now, it doesn’t seem like he is going to be anytime soon. 

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Roy Halladay: Why the Phillies Should Worry About Their Ace’s Pitching Arm

After the news that Chase Utley is doubtful to be ready to go for opening day, the Philadelphia Phillies offense took a major blow.

The lineup, already without its cleanup hitter for maybe the first half of the season, only highlights the potential scarcity of runs they could be able to produce this season. This is immediately following the team’s exit in a 1-0 loss for the elimination game.

On the mound that game, of course, was Roy Halladay, who was spectacular from the second inning through the rest of his time on the bump, for seven more innings. He was his true gritty self, especially when he got Matt Holliday to fly out to deep left field during a bases-loaded jam.

What if it wasn’t the 2011 Roy Halladay in his prime on the mound? What if it were someone else?

The Phillies would have no chance of matching the runs their opponents would score. Although they may not be facing Chris Carpenter every day, they still have struggled against inferior pitchers.

If there is any truth to Roy Halladay having any type of injury, as some national writers tried to speculate after his velocity was down, their marathon of a season gets increasingly more difficult.

With the offense really just down to Hunter Pence, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino as far as reliable production, the team is going to lean on the aces more than ever. Then looking at the aces, Cliff Lee has his moments where he doesn’t have it on the mound, and Cole Hamels has never won more than 15 games, even on teams that have led the league in wins.

Doc anchors the rotation, and without him they are going to have a few issues keeping their offense in the game.

So if there is anything even close to resembling any sort of injury or decline, it is the worst possible injury news a single player on the team could face, even worse than the “Big Piece’s” Achilles injury.

Just stay healthy, guys.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Could They Go After Utility Man Blake DeWitt?

When Ruben Amaro Jr. announced that Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley starting the season at second base is “doubtful,” I could almost hear the collective groan rising from Phillies nation.

Power-hitting first baseman Ryan Howard will already be missing substantial time from his traditional fourth spot in the lineup, and now the Phillies will be missing their third hitter as well. They will be missing a very large part of their offense, and that is definitely not good for a team that has been searching for infield depth all spring.

Finding that infield depth has now become a more important priority. According to Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago, utility infielder Blake DeWitt “has come up in recent trade rumors.” While he doesn’t specifically mention the Philadelphia Phillies in this article, it is not very difficult to see how DeWitt would fit with the Phillies.

Last season, DeWitt hit .265 with five home runs, 26 RBI and one stolen base in 121 games. While that might not sound like very much in so many games, he only collected 243 plate appearances, so lower numbers are not necessarily surprising. However, even though his offense would be an upgrade over Michael Martinez, he would appeal to the Phillies mainly because he can play either second or third base.

Obviously, the Phillies need second base support right now, but with the somewhat injury-prone Placido Polanco at the hot corner, Dewitt might eventually be needed there.

This could be an interesting fit for the Phillies. Keep paying attention to this story to see if it develops further.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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What We’ve Learned About Each Phillies Rotation Candidate

For a team that had one of the major league’s best starting rotations last season, the Philadelphia Phillies still decided to enter camp with a surplus of starting pitching.

Some of the starting pitchers originally in the major league camp, such as Joel Pineiro and Dave Bush, have either been released or sent to the minor league camp, while others, such as Kyle Kendrick, are grabbing the attention of scouts.

The Phillies entered spring training with their starting rotation already in place, but early performances may give the team flexibility when it comes to trading for lineup upgrades or salary relief.

With injuries already mounting up, the Phillies may have to rely on their rotation even more this season.

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2012 Philadelphia Phillies: How Chase Utley’s Absence Changes the Lineup

It was definitely not a shock to learn from Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr that second baseman Chase Utley had left camp to get his knees checked out by a specialist. Face it Phillies fans, Chase Utley will never be the same. The way Utley gave his all every night disregarding his body for the betterment of the team has cut short his career longevity. 

When he returns, Utley will look more and more like the guy who played the second half of the 2011 season who hit .259 with 11 home runs and 44 RBI. Of course, appreciate what Utley did as the every day second baseman for the previous seven seasons, but understand its over.

That brings us to today’s announcement and what that does to the lineup. As it looks right now, here are the starters:

C- Carlos Ruiz

1b- John Mayberry/Jim Thome

2b- Freddy Galvis

SS- Jimmy Rollins

3b- Placido Polanco/Ty Wigginton

LF- Juan Pierre/Scott Podsednik/Laynce Nix

CF- Shane Victorino

RF- Hunter Pence

 

Galvis has had a nice spring offensively and should be fine going from shortstop to second base defensively. Mayberry is probably the every day first baseman as I just don’t see Jim Thome playing more than once a week. Pierre & Podsednik are in a dog fight to make the roster while Nix will edge out Domonic Brown, who has looked good but still suffers nagging injuries.

With Utley out of the customary three-hole and Ryan Howard missing from the cleanup spot, Manager Charlie Manuel has his hands full mixing and matching every night.

So, here is how I think Charlie should pencil it in vs right handed and left handed pitchers:

VS RIGHT

1. Scott Podsednik  LF

2. Placido Polanco   3b

3. Jimmy Rollins   SS

4. Hunter Pence    RF

5. Shane Victorino   CF

6. John Mayberry   1b

7. Carlos Ruiz   C

8. Freddy Galvis   2b

COMMENTS:  Podsednik has shown he has more in the tank than Pierre this spring and deserves the chance to be the spark plug. While Rollins has always been a leadoff hitter, he hasn’t been prototypical and he has the experience and confidence to not let the three-hole freak him out. 

Victorino is in the five-hole basically to break up Pence and Mayberry. Of course if Polanco isn’t healthy, he shouldn’t be in the two-hole, much less the lineup. Mayberry might eventually become a cleanup type hitter, but six is perfect for him now.

 

VS LEFT

1. Shane Victorino    CF

2. Placido Polanco    3b

3. Jimmy Rollins   SS

4. Hunter Pence   RF

5. John Mayberry   LF

6. Ty Wigginton   1b

7. Carlos Ruiz   C

8. Freddy Galvis   2b

COMMENTS: Wiggington replaces Podsednik and Victorino moves to the leadoff spot. If Galvis struggles, Wiggington can play third and Polanco can move to second or just play Wigginton at second. Mayberry is a solid defensive outfielder so Wigginton can play first vs lefties.

Thome and Nix will get some spot starts vs righties but will mainly be used off the bench.

Manuel has his work cut out for him to begin the 2012 season. The Phillies are still led by starting pitchers Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, but how much pressure will be placed on them to basically toss shutouts until Utley and Howard return, if they even do. 

Charlie is arguably the best manager in Phillies’ history, but he might be tested more this season than any other season in mixing together the correct lineups night in and night out. It’s a shame that Utley’s career has come to this but that’s how it goes. The Phillies can do nothing but move on, adjust and live up to the lofty expectations that they have.

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The Philadelphia Phillies and 5 MLB Teams Who Will Disappoint in 2012

Baseball season is close to beginning, and as spring training winds down, writers and baseball fans around the globe are making their predictions for the upcoming season. Predicting a baseball season is not easy by any means, but there are some telltale sings of which teams are likely to exceed expectations and which teams will fall short of them.

To accurately predict a baseball season, much like I did in 2010 when I prophesied the SF Giants winning the World Series before the season even began, you must account for players’ improvement and decline, potential injuries and roster changes, and the competition and philosophy of the teams and their rivals.

Clearly, this is no easy task. However, after much analysis, here are the top five teams who are most likely to underperform in the 2012 season.

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Philadelphia Phillies Spring Training: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

There are two kinds of baseball teams in the Majors, my friend.  There are the Phillies and then there are all of the rest.  The Phillies have enough drama for them all. 

A week in Clearwater made clear that this spring’s training camp is comparable to the best spaghetti westerns.  Go ahead and cue the soundtrack. 

The Good: 

Newly re-signed Jimmy Rollins has a fist full of dollars.  He leads the charge. 

In three games last week, against the Pirates, Twins and Braves, Rollins had three hits.  One cleared the fence.  Another drove home a baserunner.  

Rollins also scored two runs and stole a base.  He even tried to bunt for a hit. 

Vance Worley is not hanging them high.  He is mowing them down.    

In four innings against the Pirates, Worley did not allow a baserunner.  He struck out eight.  The sheriff is back in town.  He is the kid with the funky glasses. 

Then there is the new boss.  He is the same as the old boss.  Jim Thome comes off the bench now, but he still carries a big stick.  

Against the Braves, Thome came to the plate four times as a designated hitter.  He twice connected, once to the opposite field to drive in a run. 

The grizzled old veteran is a force opposing pitchers will have to reckon with. 

The Phillies young gun is Freddy Galvis.  He roams the range like few other middle infielders.  Against the Twins, he went deep in the hole to retrieve a grounder. 

Galvis snared it.  Then he rifled it to first with an arm that makes shotguns look obsolete. 

Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz, just keeps on rolling.  In three games he had four hits, including a double that drove in a run.  He also showed off his own howitzer, nailing the Twins speedy centerfielder Denard Span at second base. 

The Bad: 

Chase Utley’s knees.  The Phillies second baseman has not played in a game since Game 5 of the 2011 National League Division Series (NLDS). 

Utley has not taken fielding practice since late February.  He is scheduled to see a specialist.

Ryan Howard’s ankle.  Howard remains hobbled.  He too last played in the 2011 NLDS, tearing his Achilles tendon in the final at bat of the series. 

Howard developed an infection in the area of his injury last month and is wearing a protective boot.

Utley and Howard will begin the 2012 season as partners on the disabled list.

The Ugly:

Ty Wigginton at first base has only slightly greater range than the Rocky statue located near the Philadelphia Art Museum. 

Batted balls to Wigginton’s right and his left get by in equal measure.

“Chooch” tagging up on a short fly ball to left center.  It happened against the Braves.  It should never happen again.

Roy “Doc” Halladay giving up five runs, all earned, against the Twins, in under three innings. 

It all goes to show that the good guys don’t always win.  Sometimes they lose.  Sometimes they get hurt.  But they always manage to overcome the bad and the ugly.

The Phillies will do just that.

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2012 MLB Predictions: Philadelphia Phillies Season Preview

After going out and putting together one of the best starting rotations in recent memory, the Philadelphia Phillies were supposed to win more games than any team in baseball last season.

They did that, winning a grand total of 102 games. After that deed was done, the Phillies were supposed to go out and win the World Series.

They didn’t do that, losing to the eventual world champion St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series.

The Phillies made plenty of moves this offseason, but one thing that’s clear today is that this team is not as strong on paper as last year’s team was.

Here’s an extended look at how the Phillies are shaping up heading into the 2012 season.

 

2011 Record: 102-60

Key Arrivals (courtesy of BaseballProspectus.com): RHP Jonathan Papelbon (FA), LHP Raul Valdes (FA), RHP Brian Sanches (FA), OF Scott Podsednik (FA), SS Pete Orr (FA), LHP Pat Misch (FA), 3B Kevin Frandsen (FA), RHP Scott Elarton (FA), OF Laynce Nix (FA), RHP Dave Bush (FA), C Steven Lerud (FA), LHP David Purcey (FA), 3B Hector Luna (FA), OF Lou Montanez (FA), OF Jesus Morales (FA), LHP Jeremy Horst (from Cincinnati), OF Juan Pierre (FA), RHP Chad Qualls (FA), 1B Jim Thome (FA).

Key Departures: OF Ben Francisco (to Toronto), RHP Scott Mathieson (FA), SS Carlos Rivera (waivers), OF John Bowker (FA), SS Wilson Valdez (to Cincinnati), OF Raul Ibanez (FA), RHP Brad Lidge (FA), RHP Ryan Madson (FA), RHP Roy Oswalt (FA).

Projected Rotation (per official site)

1. Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
2. Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40, 1.03)
3. Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79, 0.99)
4. Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01, 1.23)
5. Joe Blanton (1-2, 5.01, 1.48)
6. Kyle Kendrick (8-6, 3.22, 1.22)

Projected Starters

C: Carlos Ruiz (.283/.371/.383)

1B: Ryan Howard (.253/.346/.488)*

2B: Chase Utley (.259/.344/.438)**

3B: Placido Polanco (.277/.335/.339)

SS: Jimmy Rollins (.268/.338/.399)

LF: John Mayberry (.273/.341/.442)

CF: Shane Victorino (.279/.355/.491)

RF: Hunter Pence (.314/.370/.502)

*Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that Howard could return in late May or early June. He tore his left Achilles against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the National League Division Series, and his recovery has not gone perfectly.

**ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has said that Utley is “doubtful” for Opening Day with nagging knee injuries. 

Bullpen

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (R) (4-1, 31 SV, 3 BLSV, 2.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)

Antonio Bastardo (L) (6-1, 8 SV, 17 HLD, 1 BLSV, 2.64, 0.93)

Jose Contreras (R) (0-0, 5 SV, 4 HLD, 3.86, 1.36)

Chad Qualls (R) (6-8, 22 HLD, 5 BLSV, 3.51, 1.25)

Kyle Kendrick (R) (8-6, 3.22, 1.22)

Michael Stutes (R) (6-2, 13 HLD, 3.63, 1.24)

David Herndon (R) (1-4, 1 SV, 4 HLD, 1 BLSV, 3.32, 1.37)

Scouting the Starting Pitching

Philadelphia’s starting rotation did not live up to the hype in 2011. 

It surpassed it.

The numbers speak for themselves. Phillies starters logged 1,064.2 innings, pitched 18 complete games, threw seven shutouts and had 108 quality starts. They had a 2.86 ERA, a 7.88 K/9, a 1.87 BB/9 and a 1.11 WHIP.

All of those numbers were tops in the majors. Which, for the record, is remarkable.

Roy Halladay led the way, winning a team-high 19 games and pitching a team-high 233.2 innings. He pitched eight of the team’s 18 complete games, and he pitched fewer than seven innings just seven times. 

I’m going to break down Halladay’s dominance in further detail in just a minute, but I’ll just say for now that he is everything his reputation suggests. He’s an ace in every sense of the word, and the simple truth is that no active pitcher in the majors has mastered the art of pitching quite like he has.

Though, Cliff Lee is no slouch. His first season back in Philadelphia was a roaring success. He won 17 games while pitching a career-high 232.2 innings with six complete games, all of which were shutouts.

What was interesting about Lee’s performance in 2011 was how he morphed into much more of a strikeout pitcher. He struck out a career-high 238 batters, which is amazing considering his previous career-high was 185 punchouts. His K/9 for the season was 9.21, which was coupled with a BB/9 of 1.62. His K/BB of 5.67 was the third-highest mark in the majors.

In addition, Lee’s ground-ball rate jumped up to 46.3 percent, which helped keep his opponents’ average at .229 and his opponents’ slugging percentage at .339. 

In short, it was very, very difficult for hitters to hit Lee. If you needed numbers to realize that, well, there you go.

Halladay and Lee got the bulk of the attention, and deservedly so, but Cole Hamels had a fairly amazing season last year too. Opponents hit just .214 off him, the lowest such mark of Philly’s three aces. That’s a big reason he was able to manage a 0.99 WHIP, which ranked third in the majors.

Unlike Lee, Hamels actually struck out fewer hitters in 2011 than he had in the past. He had a K/9 over 9.00 in 2010, but it fell to 8.08 in 2011. He balanced things out by posting a career-low BB/9 of 1.83, and he induced more ground balls than he ever had before.

So I’d say Hamels took a few steps forward as a pitcher in 2011, and I think it’s fair to chalk that up to his being part of a friendly competition with two of the best pitchers in the game. Hamels didn’t want to be the ugly duckling of the group, so he upped his game.

Whatever his motivation was, the Phillies will gladly take a repeat performance. Goodness knows Hamels has been a little inconsistent in recent seasons.

Vance Worley turned out to be a pleasant surprise after he became a part of the rotation, but he’s going to have adjustments to make in his first full season in Philly’s rotation. He pitched really well right out of the gate, but hitters started getting to him in the second half of the season. It all culminated in a month of September in which hitters hit .288 with four homers off Worley.

Worley can help himself by decreasing his walks, as his BB/9 in 2011 was over 3.00. In addition, his curiously high 23.5 line-drive rate should have translated to a higher BABIP than .283. Don’t be surprised if Worley gives up a few more hits in 2012, leading to some regression.

But not too much regression. Worley benefited from some luck last season, but not an extreme amount. His FIP of 3.32 wasn’t much higher than his 3.01 ERA. 

Joe Blanton is penciled into the No. 5 spot in this rotation, and he’s a guy who suffered from really bad luck in what starts he did make. Despite a K/9 of 7.62 and a ground-ball rate of 55 percent, Blanton had a .362 BABIP. It’s not a surprise his FIP was 3.63, way more than a run lower than his actual ERA.

Even still, Kyle Kendrick looks to be the better option for the No. 5 spot. He’s looked very good in spring training, and he’s coming off a season in which he had a 3.14 ERA as a starter.

Regardless of what happens with the No. 5 spot, this rotation is as solid as a rock. It was the best in the majors in 2011, and it’s a good bet that it will be the best rotation in the majors in 2012 too.

But of course, you already knew that.

Scouting the Bullpen

Philly’s bullpen was pretty good in 2011. Not great, but pretty good.

All told, Phillies relievers had a 3.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, figures that ranked in the middle of the road in the National League. The biggest problem Phillies relievers had was walks, as the bullpen had a BB/9 of 3.99.

It wasn’t all bad, though. Phillies relievers were only called on to pitch 412.1 innings, fewest in the National League. With the starters going so deep into games, the guys in the pen didn’t have to do all that much.

Things will be much the same in 2012, with the key difference being who will be closing games out in the ninth. Ryan Madson is out, and Jonathan Papelbon is in.

The Phillies are paying Papelbon way too much money, but he’ll be just fine closing games out as long as he repeats his performance for 2011. After struggling mightily with his control for two seasons, Pap lowered his BB/9 to 1.40, much closer to where he was in 2007 and 2008. He also upped his K/9 to 12.17.

Most importantly, Pap gave up just three home runs all season, posting an outstanding 4.8 HR/FB percentage. Home runs had been a problem for Pap, but he was very hard to take deep last season.

The bridge to Papelbon could be stronger, but the Phillies could ask for a much worse eighth inning guy than Antonio Bastardo. He had a very rough month of September last season, but beyond that he was very good, posting a 10.86 K/9 and an opponents’ batting average of .144. It’s hard to imagine him being that unhittable again, but he’s going to be just as dominant if he manages to get his BB/9 lower than 4.00.

The rest of this bullpen is made up of veterans and young arms, the lot of whom will spend the first couple of months jockeying for position. Because it’s a relatively unspectacular collection of arms, you have to worry about how the Phillies will fare when games turn into bullpen battles.

But let’s be real. As long as the Phillies’ rotation stays intact, they’re not going to have to worry about that. As long as they have quality arms to take care of the late innings — and they do — they’ll be fine.

Scouting the Hitting

The Phillies’ offensive woes in 2011 were blown way out of proportion, but there was no mistaking the fact that the Phillies were far from the offensive powerhouse that they used to be. They scored just 713 runs, seventh in the National League. They hit .253, slugged .395 and finished eighth in the National League with 153 home runs.

Get ready for things to be even worse in 2012. 

The key issue with this Phillies lineup is health. I noted above that Ryan Howard is going to miss the first couple months of the season, and now it sounds like Chase Utley is going to be too wounded to play right out of the gate.

Just a couple seasons ago, these two guys were studs the Phillies could count on to drive in tons of runs. Now they’re both injury risks who aren’t going to come close to providing the kind of production they used to.

In addition, it must be kept in mind that Jimmy Rollins is not as young or as sturdy as he once was, and even Shane Victorino had to spend some time on the disabled list in 2011.

With Howard out for the foreseeable future and Utley ailing, it is absolutely imperative that Rollins and Victorino stay healthy, as the two of them can save Philly’s offense a lot of trouble by being productive at the top of the lineup.

All bets are off with Rollins. He just hasn’t been himself since his MVP season in 2007, as his batting averages have hovered well south of the .300 mark, and his on-base and slugging percentages have been lacking.

On the bright side, Rollins is still a threat to hit upwards of 15 home runs if he manages to stay healthy, and he’ll steal 30-plus bases too. Rollins can do himself a huge favor by taking more walks. That’s never been his specialty, but at this stage of his career he needs to realize that he’s just not capable of doing what he used to be able to with a bat in his hands.

Things are less concerning as they pertain to Victorino. He’s still relatively young, and his recent track record shows that he’ll be good for a batting average in the high .200s, an OBP in the mid .300s and roughly 15-20 home runs if he stays healthy.

In fact, Victorino could be even better than that. Let’s not forget that he was hitting .303/.376/.524 before the All-Star break last year. He managed to have an outstanding month of August, but his season took a turn for the worse in September.

At least Hunter Pence managed to stay consistent after the Phillies acquired him, hitting .324/.394/.560 after the team got him at the trade deadline. He was money in August, batting .340 with seven home runs.

Pence will likely slide into the cleanup spot with Howard out of the picture, meaning he’ll have to keep rolling along once the season starts. I’ll have more on his role with this club in just a minute.

Beyond the big names, one guy to keep an eye on in this lineup is John Mayberry, Jr. He hasn’t had a good spring, but the Phillies know as well as anyone that Mayberry gave the team a big lift in the final two months of the 2011 season, hitting .296 with six homers in August and .305 in September. If he comes anywhere close to that production in 2012, the Phillies will have some oomph in the lower half of their lineup.

And that would be a good thing, of course, because the lower half of their lineup doesn’t seem to have much oomph when you look at it on paper. Placido Polanco is a singles hitter, Ty Wigginton has hit below .250 each of the last two years, Carlos Ruiz’s value is in his defense and game-calling abilities and Domonic Brown has gone from being a blue-chip prospect to being a snakebit mess.

If all goes well, the guys who are healthy now will stay healthy long enough to hold the fort until Utley and Howard are able to return. If all keeps going well, the two of them are going to go back to hitting like they used to.

But that’s not going to happen. It’s a 162-game season, and there’s more than enough evidence to suggest that what can go wrong in baseball will go wrong.

Indeed, Murphy’s Law has already taken hold of this lineup. I take that as a sign that it’s going to be a long season for Philly’s bats. 

Pitching Stud

Did I mention that Roy Halladay was good in 2011? I think I did, but I probably haven’t mentioned that he was better in 2011 than he was in 2010, when he won 21 games and captured the National League Cy Young.

Halladay missed a few more bats in 2011, upping his K/9 from 7.86 to 8.47 and ultimately finishing with a career-high 220 strikeouts. He did this while keeping his BB/9 at 1.35, tops in the National League among qualified starters.

Additionally, Halladay kept the ball in the yard much better than he did in 2010, when his HR/FB rate was 11.3 percent and he ended up surrendering 24 dingers. In 2011, Halladay’s HR/FB rate was 5.1 percent, and he surrendered just 10 dingers all season long.

In the end, Halladay had allowed an opponents’ batting average of just .239 and an opponents’ slugging percentage of .313. That second number tied him with Justin Verlander for the second-lowest opponents’ slugging percentage in the majors behind Clayton Kershaw (.298).

Looking back even further, Halladay leads all starters with an ERA of 2.80 since 2007, and he also leads all starters with 42 complete games since 2007. The next-closest guy on the list is Cliff Lee, and he has 24.

So like I said, Halladay is a true ace. When he’s on the mound, the Phillies won’t have to worry about a thing.

Hitting Stud

A couple years ago, it would have been very difficult to choose a Phillie for this particular honor. But these days, the only guy who can go here is Hunter Pence.

Pence has always been a good hitter, but he was a different animal altogether last season. His .314 batting average was a personal best for a season in which he logged more than 500 at-bats, and the same is true of his on-base percentage and his .502 slugging percentage.

When we see spikes like this, it’s typically because the hitter in question got smarter and started being more selective at the plate. This wasn’t the case with Pence, as he had a walk rate of just 8.4 percent, and he actually struck out more often in 2011 than he had in 2010 or 2009.

When Pence made contact, though, good things happened. He had a BABIP of .361, which put him in the same company as Miguel Cabrera. This was due primarily to Pence’s 17.9 line-drive percentage, a mark that’s better than average.

Pence took to Citizens Bank Park quite well, hitting .341 in Philly’s home park. You could see that coming because Pence has always been good at finding the gaps, and Citizens Bank Park is pretty inviting for hitters like that.

When the Phillies acquired Pence last season, they needed him to be an important cog in their lineup. This season, they’re going to need him to be even more important. The Phillies have no idea what they’re going to get out of Utley or Howard, so they need to know what they’re going to get out of Pence.

And make no mistake, they’re going to need a lot of out of him.

X-Factor

Fair warning: I am indeed about to make a case for Ryan Howard as Philly’s X-factor.

Howard used to be good for upwards of 45 home runs and a slugging percentage in the high .500s, not to mention roughly 140 RBI in a given season. In the last two seasons, Howard has been more of a 30-homer guy, one who simply doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.

There’s no specific reason for it. Howard has been striking out a lot, but that was the case with him even as far back as his MVP season in 2006. He’s not unlike Adam Dunn in that his big strike zone makes things difficult for him. He’s always taken his walks, but he’s always had a tendency to swing and miss too.

The problem Howard has faced over the last two seasons is that he just hasn’t been hitting the ball with authority. His ISO (isolated power) used to hover near or above .300, which is outstanding. In 2010, Howard’s ISO was .229. In 2010, it was .235. That’s not great. That’s merely above average.

Not surprisingly, Howard’s loss of raw power has led to a decline in home runs. No doubt you’ve already noticed that.

If you want to look on the bright side, maybe the rest Howard is getting at present is for the best. Maybe some time to recharge his batteries is exactly what he needs.

The Phillies are hoping so. When Howard returns, they need him to mash. If he does, they stand to win a lot of games. If he doesn’t, they stand to keep sputtering along offensively, leaving a lot of games left un-won.

Prospect to Watch

The Phillies have been busy bees making trades in recent seasons, so it’s not exactly a surprise that the upper levels of their farm system are totally devoid of standout players.

One guy who stands out in their system, however, is Trevor May, who the Phillies drafted in the fourth round back in 2008. He’s only made it as far as Single-A since then, but he’s starting to generate some positive buzz.

ESPN’s Keith Law has May ranked as the No. 76 prospect in baseball this year, up from his ranking of 93 in 2011. The only thing Law doesn’t like is that May’s curve and change both need work. Right now, he’s getting by primarily on his fastball, a tendency that will only get a young pitcher so far.

Still, May is only 22, so he has a lot of time left to improve. A few years from now, he’ll be knocking on the door of a rotation that will feature a couple pitchers who will be a little long in the tooth.

What the Phillies Will Do Well

You don’t need me to tell you that the Phillies are going to pitch well, but I will anyway.

The top three pitchers in Philly’s rotation combine to form a trio that no team in baseball can beat. Halladay, Lee and Hamels are all threats to pitch well over 200 innings, and when all is said and done all three of them will likely have ERAs under 3.00. 

The back end of Philly’s rotation doesn’t hold a candle to the front end, but there are much worse back ends out there, regardless of who ends up earning the No. 5 spot.

Philly’s bullpen is not elite, but it doesn’t need to be with its rotation. The starters will take a lot of pressure off the relievers, and that will make life easier for everyone.

What the Phillies Won’t Do Well

The Phillies are going to be worse offensively in 2012 than they were in 2011. You can take that to the bank.

The injury to Howard was a huge enough blow, and Utley’s own injury woes don’t bode well. You never want to hear the words “nagging” (or “chronic”) and “knees” in the same sentence.

The Phillies have solid depth, but making up the difference won’t be easy. They’re going to struggle to score runs as long as Utley and Howard are out, and things won’t be overly shiny when those two are both in the lineup the rest of the way.

Also, the Phillies will likely be a below-average fielding team. They were last year, and they didn’t go out of their way to upgrade their team defense over the offseason. 

Final Thoughts

Despite my gripes about Philly’s bats, this is still a very good team we’re talking about. The Phillies’ starting pitching will make sure the team stays slump-proof, and that will lead to a lot of wins.

But the Phillies aren’t winning 100 games again. Their lack of offensive firepower is going to cost them, and it simply cannot be taken for granted that their starting pitching is going to be as dominant as it was last season. A regression is in the cards.

The Phillies won’t win few than 90, though. In the end, I don’t think they’ll have any trouble making the playoffs.

Projected Record: 92-70, second in NL East, wild card berth.

 

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Zachary D. Rymer is a lifelong baseball junkie with an impressive collection of Nomar Garciaparra rookie cards and a knuckleball that is coming along. He loves the Red Sox and hates the Yankees, but he has a huge man-crush on Derek Jeter and would like nothing more than to have a few beers with Nick Swisher. He’s always down to talk some baseball, so feel free to hit him up on Twitter:

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Most Intriguing Spring Position Battles

As you watch a Philadelphia Phillies spring training game, there are some things you have probably already taken note of.

Aces, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels only throw a few innings per start, closer Jonathan Papelbon has come in to pitch in the 5^th or 7^th inning, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are nowhere to be found, Jimmy Rollins and Hunter Pence don’t play every game or every inning, veteran Jim Thome is playing as a DH and Domonic Brown is getting playing time with the big league club once again.

It isn’t exactly the scenario you may have expected when the 2011 season came to an end, but hey it is spring training, and any baseball fan knows that the above and other spring oddities are totally normal and expected parts of baseball’s version of a pre-season.

In addition to the line-ups that may have some shaking their heads, spring training is also the time when prospects, non-roster invitees and minor league free agent signings use everything in their power to play inspired baseball and win a spot on the big league club. The games may in and of themselves be a little boring but the position battles certainly are not.

So the next time you tune in to a Phillies Grapefruit League game, don’t pay attention to the fact that Roy Halladay is only pitching four innings before being pulled or that Jimmy Rollins is striking out while working on his bunting. Instead, watch as Freddy Galvis flashes some leather and displays some surprising pop, notice how Domonic Brown’s offensive output is improving, observe how Scott Podsednik has emerged as a candidate to earn a bench spot and pay attention to Phillipe Aumont, Justin DeFratus and Michael Shwimer every time they pitch.

These are just some of the stories that have emerged out of the Phillies camp and ones that will certainly be interesting to follow as Opening Day inches closer.

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25 Bold Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Staff in 2012

Not many teams are in a position to lose a pitcher of Roy Oswalt’s caliber in the off-season and still stake a claim in the argument for baseball’s best starting rotation, but the Philadelphia Phillies can.

Stuffed with accolades, the departure of Oswalt leaves the Phillies with three All-Stars, a man who placed third in the National League’s Rookie of the Year voting from last season, and a man who once hit a home run in the World Series.

Not too shabby.

The bullpen is looking okay too, what with the addition of a closer who is following a similar career path as to one Mariano Rivera, and a slew of young arms with the potential to pitch in the late innings.

As the Phillies’ pitching staff builds up arm strength and works on various aspects of their game in Spring Training, let’s make a few predictions on what we can reasonably expect out of them in 2012.

For news, rumors, analysis, and game recaps during spring training, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor!

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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